There has been a lot of talk about Transnistria in the news these past few weeks. This has cast a spotlight on what had previously been a rather obscure and little-known frozen conflict. But could we be about to see some movement on the thirty-year-old dispute? And, if so, what do you think will happen?
Could Transnistria survive as an independent state? I don't know what their major source of income is or its biggest export but given the size, shape, and location it doesn't seem like a very prosperous scenario. Another possibility is that as the war with Ukraine drags on, what if Russia just simply couldn't afford to fund all of their proxy wars and had to pull out? Although Russia is starting feel the effects of the sanctions, the full impact isn't expected until summer. In this scenario I think a peaceful agreement is possible. Thx Prof.
@@Todd.B No. That region is deserted. I went there last year and seeing young people there is a challenge. Either elders or toddlers. Tiraspol, the capital of this 'state' was once a bustling industrial city with some 300-400k population. Now it seems like an abandoned provincial town. A lot of building abandoned, few people on the streets for such a city. Transnistria had like 700k population back in 1991. It lost about half of the population by now, and is depleting even faster since Ukraine closed down its borders with it.
@@Kalimdor199Menegroth most transnistrias work Moldova, it's an open border and relations are good. If left to its own devices it might rejoin Moldova, the Romanian desire for unification with Moldova complicates things thought.
Guys, id like to give you native insight, as with all due respect, this video and all others about Moldova just recycle whats been written in western literature in last 30 years…. So: Things have changed. ‘Transnistrians’ trade more with EU, many have Romanian passports and work abroad. They care more for their children and economic future than politics. They realise that they are pawns and are sick of it, its only the elderly there left. They would gladly join EU if they had the chance. And Moldova… 40-45% support of Reunification with Romania. However Romania did almost nothing to shape their opinion, Ro doesnt control the media. Inside families, souls this self identification with Romania has always been there. Dont confuse unification oercentage with how many people there feel Romanian. They may say they are Molovan in Census because Moldovan means just eastern Romanian. You can be Moldovan and Romanan at the same time. Just like you can be both Saxon and a German, both a Sicilian and an Italian, both a Coriscan and a French. Its regional identity vs national identity. Moldovan is one of the three main Regional identities a Romanian can have.. Stalin’s bet was to make them in your eyes, the West a different people. To us, we are brothers. Then why not unification? Well to update you to 2022.. Moldovas president talked about unification, she said it can be done inly by law and if the majority is 51% for. Romanians president said ‘Unification is something only Romania can offer and only Moldova can accept’ and basically every election the Unification is a standalone subject in whih the candidates compete in who displays stringer unionism. Romanian support for unification is 70-80% constantly since 1990.. Basically… its just anout time.. in how many years. That is the question. We know how ti do it legally, we just support Moldova reach this critical majority and it grows year by year
I'll venture asking you, do you have any sense of how Transnistrians, and their government, feel about this whole thing? I feel we don't hear from them, ever.
Thank you so much. I appreciate it enormously. It really must be a worrying situation over there just now. Fortunately, the immediate threat seems to have lessened. But I can imagine the government and people are very concerned about how all this could yet go.
Their "government of Transnistria" is a Russia's puppet cabinet, appointed as result of fake elections. It has nothing to do with democracy, will of people, etc.
It sounds like most of Transnistira are against Russia. ⅔ are NOT Russian. I think Moldova should take Transnistria and if the Russians do not want to play nice then send them to Russia. This is just crazy that ⅓ of Transnistria is controlling the entire country.
@chrisvegamelo Hi! Can I ask what may be a ridiculous question for you, please? I have been looking at an article on the Transnistrian census for 2015, it shows Russians, at a push, only at about 30% of the population, yet seem to dictate policy, such as constitutional status, for the other 70% (29% Moldovan and 23% Ukrainian + others). Is there suspicion amongst the others of each other and the Russians are exploiting this? Thanks 🙏👍
Romanian vs Moldovan identity was created by Stalin to confuse you. Its like Mexico took over Texas and called the people there ‘Texans’ speaking ‘Texan’ language. Romania has its own Moldova region which is everything that is east of carpathians. The only difference between Romanian Moldova and Modlovan Moldova is where the Russian tanks stopped in WW2. Lets end the debate. Its not even a debate. Its a plain malefic play of Stalin to alienate Romanians east of Prut River from their home country. Period.
Not to mention that the only reason they defined the language in the constitution as "Moldovan" and not, let's say, Romanian (which it quite clearly is!) was because they wanted Moldova to have a clear separate national identity and prevent it's reunification with Romania.
@@suspendedtwice4sayingrasis261 The Republic of Moldova is neutral for one simple reason: Moldova' s Constitution was adopted in 1994 that is to say after Russia occupied Transnistria in 1992. Moldova lost the war because of Russian 's much stronger army and also because Ukraine helped Russia in that war. After having occupied Transnistria, Moscow threatened Moldova ' s leaders with full invasion in case Moldova did not mention specifically in the Constitution its neutrality and in case the Romanian language was mentioned there. Moscow said it should be called "Moldovan". That's why in the Constitution adopted in 1994 the name of the language is "Moldovan" and not Romanian while in the Declaration of Independence of 1991 the name of the language is Romanian. After the break-up of the Soviet Union, our leaders planned to call Moldova The Romanian Republic of Moldova (Republica Romana Moldova) till its reunification with Romania (I have seen that draft of the Constitution), but Moscow opposed once more.... To sum up, the most sensitive articles of our Constitution of 1994 were written in the way Russia had decided and not in the way our Parliament had planned to vote for...
@@Pax_Romana_Caesar I knew it was because of Russian involvement, but I didn't actually know the specific details. Thank you for the interesting history lesson! ☺️ As a Romanian, I plan to visit Moldova somewhere in the future and I want to learn more about our brothers from beyond the Prut!
@@crazypsychovirgoman6990 its not irredentism because Ro doesnt claim Moldova, it claims we are the same people and we offer Reunification with the Moldovans which nobody asked in 1940 if they want to give up their romanian citizenship and become members of the Soviet union. We are one people, separated by the Ribentrop-Molotov pact. Read first before commenting about irredentism which is different from unionism. I hope you learned your lesson now
Thanks for discussing this timely topic. With the idea of "Novorussia" doctire, logic would tell us that Russia would in theory invade to bring all of Moldova under its control. But it is failing to conquer Ukrine, so Russia's goals in Ukriane have changed. So although Moldova is weak, Russia doesnt have the combat power to expand into attempting to seize Moldova. So a status quo of the current paradigm can be expected. Excellent video!!!!
Thank you so much Andrew. I agree. Had Russia taken Ukraine then it could well have just moved in to Moldova, especially as it has its allies there as well. It may have found people to act as a Quisling administration. But I think that this is on hold now, although it might change if Russia does manage to take the entire south of Ukraine. So, I guess that the continuation of the status quo does look to be the most likely outcome just at the moment.
Moldova will not be able to take Transnistria back. It doesn't have an army. Which is the reason why Russia is playing the 'Romanian takeover' card. Ukraine is willing to do it, but it needs Moldova's approval, which I don't think is an issue. Resolving the Transnistrian issue would help Ukraine too, as they will no longer need to pin down troops near Transnistria.
@@ems7623 Transnistria has 5k russian troops and can mobilize locals(which would lack in morale training and equipment), it is completely cut off from Russia, and it's geography is virtually undefendable except for Tiraspol itself
Great video on a very important topic! If a Russian annexation should happen at some point, I'm particularly worried about what borders Russia would consider proper for Transnistria. There are still small regions of the Dniester's right bank controlled by Moldova, as well as some regions on the rivers left side close to Tiraspol also under Moldovan control, but which the Transnistrian government considers to be their territory - a very dangerous situation if it should come that far.
Thanks. Great points. You are absolutely right. And this is where things could very difficult and dangerous for Moldova. Does it accept such a takeover of these areas? Or does it try to resist? And what would be the wider international reaction? Would Romania step in under such a provocation, despite being a NATO member? My sense is that Moldova will do what it can to avoid escalation. But it is certainly a worrying time.
@@JamesKerLindsay as a Romanian, I'm pretty sure our country will not decide to step up in a situation like this. Most probably because we are a NATO member and we're afraid of the consequences that may come after this.
Thanks. I would tend to agree. I think that even if Romania wants to step in, it will avoid doing so. And I think there would be huge pressure from NATO partners. But it will be a very dangerous moment.
Yeah, that is also an important question in case of secession - where exactly the border would be? which again could escalate. Of course there might be local referendums in the disputed villages/cities (Tighina/Bender was supposed to be under joint control, but as I understood - separatists are slowly taking over the city), but there is still a problem - under separatist control there never were free elections, which again will raise tensions, if Moldova would want that only people with citizenship could vote(so that it would pe possible to have proper list of people living in the area), but separatist will claim that their shitty papers could also be used as authentication - again will escalate. And full reunification is also not very probable, even if russia is taken out of ecuation - after reunification - all current and former functionaries under separatist regime will have to go to jail for 15-20 years for usurpation, so their "politicians" won't accept that.
Transnistria recent history is very interesting and controversial. I doubt Russia ever wanted to find a solution with Moldova, because by doing so it would loose its influence and open the doors of the west for Moldova. This clearly follows a common path with the other de-facto states in the caucasus and it will be almost impossible to find a solution as long as Russia is involved
Thanks Marco. I agree. Russia has certainly been more than happy to keep the issue dangling. And the similarities with the cases in the Caucasus are certainly very striking. It really is incredible how entrenched these sorts of conflicts can become. I hope all else is well with you.
Russians are masters regarding making "frozen" conflicts in many regions of Europe ... see Moldova - Transnistria War 1992 , now this "frozen" conflict can start to be warm...again
This is why the simplest solution is: let it go and recognize Transnistria as independent. Its bargaining power (and by extent, Russia's) lies in interfering with Moldova's political process. An independent Transnistria means one less lever for Moscow in the region. Furthermore Transnistria is landlocked between two generally pro-Western states, so playing for Russia would be detrimental to its economy, Sheriff in particular. Not to mention that in spite of everything, if we look at the events that lead up to Transnistria breaking away, it does somewhat fall within the principles of self-determination. They genuinely wanted to be part of the Soviet political space. Recognition of Transnistria wouldn't therefore be destabilizing because there are at least /some/ legitimate arguments for it to be independent, unlike the Donbas "republics". If anything, Ukraine's smartest move in this war would be to strike a deal with Transnistria - Ukrainian/international recognition of independence in exchange of Transnistria expelling the Russian force, severing ties with Moscow, and giving Ukraine control over the Cobasna arms depot. Putin would implode if that happens.
Total nonsense. Unsustainable as a potential country. No legal reason whatsoever to recognize it as such and to claim this. Following this logic, we should divide Europe into several thousand tiny quasi-states...
Ukraine and Moldova taking Transnistria would have a devastating effect on other Russian-backed breakaway states such as Artsakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Artsakh in particular relies almost solely on Russian peacekeepers to defend them from an Azerbaijani exodus/genocide. All these entities may reopen diplomacy if Russia cannot be relied upon.
Reopen diplomacy with their formal states, right? That sounds like a good thing - more avenues/possibility to reach a satisfactory compromise for both parties, without relying on Russia... are you saying that would actually be detrimental to (the safety of) the people in some of these breakaway regions, bc a govt like Azerbaijan's might do smth bad? 🤔 Cause I don't get it.
@@dyawr In most cases removing the Russian military meddling would probably be to the benefit of everyone involved, but Azerbaijan is actually a special case where they will most probably attempt (and likely succeed at) genocide if given the chance. They fought a whole war over it in the last two years, and have been building museums full of war trophies like captured tanks and the literal skulls of their Armenian victims.
@@phank.s.4052 This is true, and it was a fatal mistake that has complicated Armenian politics since. The government at the time embraced Armenian ultranationalist sentiments mainly from the diaspora that effectively forced the country into a maximalist, no retreat policy. Had they negotiated with Azerbaijan and offered to trade return of the seven districts in exchange for Artsakh, the situation could've been resolved and the territory officially Armenian.
Thanks so much. Unfortunately, I couldn’t offer a single likely outcome - or not one that differed from the status quo, albeit under a rather different international context.
Great video Dr Ker Lindsay! I really like that you thoroughly looked through each possibility, even the unlikely ones. There certainly are a lot of plausible scenarios In my personal opinion it’s likely that the status quo remains until such a time that Russia is able to reach Transnistria (if indeed Russia is able to, they are still a long way from there right now). The question is if they did connect to Transnistria and annex it or recognize its independence, what would then happen to Moldova proper? But first thing’s first, there’s no guarantee Russia even makes it to Tiraspol at this point. Very prudent topic, great video!
Thanks a lot LocalLt. I had wanted to make a video on Transnistria for a very long time. But I wasn’t sure how much interest it would generate. How things have been turned upside down. The problem with the recognising independence scenario is that it has ceased to be of any value to Moscow. In fact it has become embarrassing. No one else seems to follow. My sense is that if it takes it, it might as well go all in an and annexe it.
Ukraine securing Transnistria seems like the most likely and "best" solution. One thing you didn't mention is the damage such a loss would do to President Putin's legitimacy in Russia. The loss of territory or client states is deadly to a Russian leader. As mentioned, it is also strategically important for Ukraine so given the weakness of the Russian presence there - there seems to be little downside.
The biggest problem is that it will drag Moldova into this war, and if Ukraine did that without the west "calling" for it, weapon shipments would slow down as the war in Ukraine is framed as a defensive war of survival, not a war of "liberation."
@@kx4998 I recognize that danger, but I don't think it holds given the following factors: 1. the extreme brutality of the Russian offensive 2. the legitimate strategic reasoning behind securing that flank 3. the UN General Assembly's call for the removal of Russian "peace-keepers" Countries like Germany may use such a move to justify the fact that they are already reducing their commitment to military aid, but strategic benefits for the entire West are such that, unless Ukrainian forces were to commit atrocities in Transnistria, it would be a slap on the wrist at worst.
*People,* Ukraine isn't going to give the order to *occupy* parts of Moldova - another sovereign state. Lol. That would make Ukraine an *aggressor* nation, like Russia. *If* Russia decides to use Transnistria as a diversion & tells the forces there to start shooting into Ukraine - *then* Ukraine can ofc shoot back & defend itself. And prob hold a meeting with Moldova's govt, to ask if they can enter the territory & secure the region, so that shelling stops (in both directions). They might get approval. ❗If Transnistria *doesn't* attack though, Moldova will prob not approve of such takeovers, as it would lead to bloodshed (of its citizens), *stir-up Russia - giving it a pretext to invade,* and break their (constitutional) committment to neutrality & peace. So, no use in talking about "Western reaction" to such an event - bc if it's done *legitimately* & not invasively, no one is gonna have a prob with that. (why would they - the official govt of Moldova, would be calling on Ukraine for help...)
@@aaronjones8905 I don't think it really matters if Odessa falls what morale would Ukrainian troops have to defend a part of Moldova that would fall fast after Odessa.
@@bilic8094 From the analysis I have heard, the fall of Odessa is extremely unlikely for the following reasons: 1. Ukraine's sinking of the Moskva force the Russian Navy to pull further back from the Black Sea shoreline 2. Odessa has had the most amount of time to fortify with the least amount of bombardment 3. Unless Russia's ability to subdue major metropolitan areas drastically improves - there is little reason to conclude they could take a city as large as Odessa.
As Emperor Palpatine said: "A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one". I was just about to go to sleep when I saw you made a video on Transnistira, and I figued I could spare myslef 15 more minutes. Thank you for explaining the whole situation in detail & focusing on the possible future of Transnistria & Moldova. While it is clearly a bad move for Romania to support Moldova in case of Russian aggression, I wouldn't bet against it due to the Romanian population being overwhelmingly in favor of it, which may escalate the conflict even further. In case of Russian capture or Odessa, I'm 90% sure Russia would recognize Transnistria who would join the war against Ukraine and this time Moldova. But given the current frontline, I find that unlikely, but not impossible. A Moldovan invasion of Transnistria I find impossible due to Moldova's stance of the conflict. However, I find a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria with Moldovan approval more likely in order to secure their flanks from the Russian invasion. Should Russia lose the war, I believe leaving Transnistria as required by the treaty they signed to UN would be one of the requirements, thus softly solving the conflict. And I don't think Moldova would give up on the territory given the Moldovan population living there. In the end however, unless Russian troops reach Transnistria, I don't find much change of changing the status quo. At the end of the day, Transnistrians politicians don't want to lose their power, and would only do so if given no other choice, another choice which would mean an armed conflict. Which as long as Russia doesn't invade Moldova or Ukraine asks Moldova to allow to move their troops in Transnistria and Moldova accepts, I don't see it happening. In the end, I would say 60% chance of the status quo being maintained. There is also the possibility that Transnistria under Russian order would start to attack Moldova/Ukraine by itself under Mocow's orders, however, I don't think they will commit to it until they are sure that Russia has the upper hand, which it currently doesn't so Transnistria is unlikely to make a move by themselves.
Good morning there! Well you did ask for them and I hope I delivered, eventually. :-) Seriously, I know it was a long time coming. Apologies! Thanks. I think we are probably on the same page about the direction this seems to be taking. I suspect that the status quo could well hold, even if the wider international political context changes. But it would be interesting ti see what happens if Russia can't reinforce its troops in Transnistria any longer and all the money starts to dry up. One could see a situation where Transnistria increasingly integrates still further with Moldova. The question in such situations is how to make the final leap to a formal political deal.As you said, the Transnistrian leadership really doesn't seem to want to give up its power. And I'm not sure Moldova would be willing to accept the devolved structures that Tiraspol would want.
@@JamesKerLindsay You delivered and exceeded my expectations, thank you for taking the time to make the videos. And no apologies needed. If the status quo is maintained, I doubt Moldova & Ukraine will organize a full blockade, given it could lead to citizens starving and I think Moldova & Ukraine have more respect for human lives than Russia. But it could eventually form a blockade against Russia, allowing Transnistria to trade with the rest of the world, which would still cause poverty but not to the point where they become North Korea 2.0. I don't think Transnistria would reunite with Moldova in spite of economic hardships. (1) The corrupt leadership will never want it, unless maybe they get a position as governor or something (2) I was going to say ethnic reasons, that Russians will never want to be part of Moldova, but with 29% Moldovans & 23% Ukrainaisn (52% total) vs 29% Russians, I think the pro-Moldovans will have the upper hand. Assuming the Moldovans & Ukrainians in Transnistira do not have a "sovietized" mindset like some older generations of Moldovans still have. Personally, I believe Ukraine & Moldova should take any form of action against Transnsitria because this passivity to Transnsitria is not serving them in any way. If Russia is to reach Transnsitria, it is guaranteed to attack Moldova and be a bigger threat to Ukraine on the southern front. So whether they like it or not, Moldova will still be drawn to this conflict regardless of its passivity. Better to be prepared and make sure that Russia doesn't have a large frontline if they intervene. Don't take this wrong, I love democracy, it's the best system we've had so far. But one of the greatest weaknesses of democracy is its unwillingness to stand up to a bully and tendency to go for appeasement in tense situations. And I'm not saying this based on Czechoslovakia in 1938 alone. Which is understandable, when people are free they don't want to go to war and die, but at the same time it's one of the biggest strength of democracies because people feel like they are fighting for something (buffs and debuffs). I believe a case can be made that Transnsitria is sovereign Moldovan territory and Moldova is basically taking back its own land taken by the Russians previosuly, of course Russia will cry this out "terrorist attack" and declare war on Moldova, but it's something which they will do anyway if they reach Transnistria. So it's a bit of a game theory: - Moldova is passive, Putin advances, attacks Moldova with an advantageous position. - Moldova is active on Transnistria, Putin advances, attacks Moldova with a disadvantageous position. - Moldova is passive, Putin doesn't advance, not much happens. - Moldova is active on Transnistria, Putin doesn't advance in Ukraine, not much Russia can do about it anyway. Moldova is likely passive because it doesn't want to be dragged into the war, but I think Moldova will be dragged into the war anyway, it's a matter of "when". Putin loves history, and he probably knows that in 1940 the Russians argued that taking Bessarabia "it's a matter of national pride". He will probably feel the same way if given the chance, given Moldova's small army. From Putin's POV, he already broke international law 200 times and started a war, what's the escalation at this point if he broke international law 200 times and started 2 wars. It's like: if you crashed 1 car is bad, if you crashed 2 cars is twice as bad. If you crashed 28 cars is bad, if you crashed 29 cars is meh compared to the 28 cars, same thing. But applied to international politics. Putin doesn't have much to lose and has already stepped that line a long time ago. His only concern is that Moldova is not part of Nato, any ethic concernes can be thrown right off the table. I think Putin's mindset is that of a realist, he's thinking how things are, not how they should be, practicality is his main interest rather than ethic or ideologic concerns, he's sherewed and not acting based on preferences but how things are, how most things are likely to be "the ugly truth" sort of thing, if he can get away with it, he'll do it. We could be speaking of the norm not the exceptions in international politics, but I think Putin has often proven that he is the exception and doesn't care about the norm of international politics. In fact, the "norm" for him is just another tool to use, he has his mind set of practicality, what can he do and get away it. That being said, he's not the mastermind chess player he tries to appear to be, but he is very adaptive because of his practicality mindset he has, which I think is a relic from his KGB years, it's very useful as a spy. I'll stop here before I turn this into a doctorate.
I feel like Transnistria probably doesn’t like Russia as much now because Moldovans and Ukrainians together are majority, and Ukrainians in Transnistria probably don’t like Russias war in Ukraine
@@kiki-zt8fz you are the Nation you think you are, so even many Russian speaking Ukrainians call themselves Ukrainian. Likewise there will be Ukrainian speakers in Russia (probably not many most would speak Russian as their main language) that consider themselves Russian.
I'd say, recognize them. But leave it open to them coming back via referendum if they ever change their mind. Then Moldova can focus on itself, and join the EU and NATO. Build itself up. While offering anyone in Transnistria citizenship in their country if they so desire. Erode them over time. Without ever using force.
Thanks. I can see the logic for this. The trouble is that Russia may just decide that it is too valuable to use that wedge of territory as an irritant to let it decide to move towards the West. The passport issue is an interesting one. It comes up in other situation. On the one hand, it creates an important link between a breakaway territory's citizens and the parent state. On the pother hand, it makes the division comfortable for the breakaway territory. They can get the benefits of being citizens but continue to live in their own statelet. We see this is Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots are Cypriot citizens, and thus EU citizens. While many want reunification, many hardline nationalists are happy to have that useful Cypriot citizenship, but have no need to push for a settlement. It's a really interesting and difficult issue.
Interesting prognonsis, with all the possibilities listed - and this portion of land has always had me curious. I have never been to Moldova and thus am curious - how is the border situation within Moldova to the region - for an ordinary civilian, is Transnistria accessible ? (understandably so - football does not help in understanding situations but got my curiosity when a Moldovan team for the Champions league this season was from Tiraspol and the matches were played in Tiraspol). I see annexation of a landlocked territory unlikely unless Russia manage the landbridge - but yes, as you mentioned, this is most likely to be a frozen conflict for years to come.
It's an open border with Moldova, relations are good, many trannistrians cross everyday for work. Until the Ukrainio Russo war there was no real problem.
Thanks Anirudh. It is actually a really interesting situation. Although I have never been either, I have heard from colleagues who have studied Transnistria extensively that the dispute is actually rather different from many other similar conflicts inasmuch as it is marked by relatively little hostility. By all account, the line is open and easily crossed. There is also a lot of trade and there's been growing interaction in other ways over recent years. And the point about the football teams is fascinating. It really does seem to be a conflict centred on the elites rather than driven by ethno-national animosity.
Love the new vid. I think it’s likely that Moldova will detach itself from Transnistria following the recent push to join the EU with a wide support from the EU. Like you said, Transnistria is historically a Slavic land. It’s already has an established border, and Moldova has little say about what’s happening in the territory. I don’t believe the war in Ukraine will be resolved as quick as I would wish. That means a prolonged conflict which eventually may result in land bridge from Russia to Transnistria and a resolution to the conflict between Moldova and Transnistria.
Great video. Aren't the Russian troops stationed in Transnistria/Moldova, as an obvious threat,fair game for Ukraine under international law or will Ukraine be regarded as an agresor if it intervene. 🇷🇴🇲🇩🇺🇦
It's an issue if Ukraine can spare anything to take on the little exclave. They still have to keep an eye on the north and the East and South are still on fire...
I think Ukraine has a good justification to attack the Russian forces inside Transnistria to secure its back if it can show there is a serious (imminent?) threat of them invading Ukraine from the west. Technically, they would be violating Moldovan territory in doing so, so if they got Maia Sandu's permission for military access, they should be fine in international law. However, it could be seen as a violation of Moldova's constitutionally enshrined neutrality. Moreover, if she says this publicly or it will leak out, then Russia may declare war or "special military operation" on Moldova as well, and she really doesn't want that. A more likely scenario seems to me that Ukraine attacks unilaterally without permission, saying clearly it seems to respect Moldova's neutrality but must do it out of self-defence. Maia will then make some sort of public statement mildly condemning the violation of Moldovan territory, while practically tolerating it. The West will express concerns but tolerate ot as well, and then the Ukrainians can go and chase the Russian Army out of Transnistria and end that pseudo-state.
Thanks. Great question. We would enter very interesting political and diplomatic territory. Transnistria is officially regarded as Moldovan sovereign territory. If Ukraine invaded then a lot would depend on Moldova's reaction. Chisinau might feel the need to put up a pro forma objection, but may in fact welcome it. Then again, it could see it as a genuine threat to its security and officially call for Ukraine to withdraw.
Another great video Prof James . I'd been thinking that the situation for Transnistira (and a whole lot more IMO) will depend on how the war goes and in particular if Odessa falls (Ukraine losing sea access). Might not seem likely the way the situation is being reported, but it's a war so who knows what could happen. PS:. The 'Please show respect' banner before posting comments was a good idea :)
Thank you so much. I agree. So much of the now seems to hinge on Odessa. And thanks also for letting me know what you thought about the guidelines. This is an experimental feature on RUclips. I guess that it isn't going to stop anyone who wants wants to be abusive, but hopefully it just gives a moment for people to think about their comments. Fortunately, the comments here do tend to be really good.
Thanks. Yes, another interesting issue. But one for another video. The problem is that it gets very difficult to weave in lots of different issues without making things too confusing.
@@JamesKerLindsay Great Video but I agree a second video about Gagauzia could be cool! You should make videos about stateless ethnicities in Europe! The Rus in the carpathians could be a cool suggestion too.
@@AimonsL_oignon i'm curious, why do you think so? The people from Gagauzia are christian turks, not russians and Irina Vlah (the local leader) seems to be interested more about the well being of her people than being loyal to Kremlin
@@vlad16382 from what I remember Gagauzia is highly autonomous and decisions such as joining NATO or launching an attack would certainly need Russian approval
I see little benefit for Ukraine in attacking Transnistria at this stage. The last thing they need is a second front, and more importantly they'd be foolish to jeopardize Europe's united stand against Russia by invading what's legally Moldovan territory and potentially causing a serious diplomatic incident. That wouldn't happen (in my view) without Moldovan consent and clear evidence of an imminent Russian attack from that front.
Thanks guys, you all talking about my home. 🤦🏻♀️🙀 I'm in interesting if it was yours, it's also fine? Transnistria is not Russia and from here Russian army or our will never attack nobody - just learn it and repeat again.
@@user-irrrrrr0000 "Transnistria is not Russia" - hopefully. But it looks like a de-facto Belarus. "from here Russian army never attack nobody" - It is not possible to trust this statement, unfortunately. Russian army has *proved* that it is ready and willing to attack from Russian ground, *and* from ground of pro-Russian "independent" countries (Belarus). So why wouldn't the Russian Army attack from another pro-russian "independent" ground? Are the Transnistrians going to stop them? (ofc not...)
@@ElijsDima Like was saying our president yesterday, even at the Ukraine people who talk about this posibility, just talking and know very good that it's impossible. Imagine tommorow u read news about possibily danger from Rhode Island to the neighbors ? it's insane. And comparing us with Belarus from the same series, people decide here and none propaganda will change the situation.
I believe there is no sense in Moldova to maintain sovereignty over Transnistria, even only de jure. It makes little sense for Moldova to have territory beyond the Nistru. Presently it may be more industrialized and energy rich than Moldova proper, but will always be a focus of tension and a hindrance in whichever path Moldova wants to follow. Since it’s practically impossible for the territory to be ceded Russia (now more than ever), there are two options. Either independence, but I think that wouldn’t benefit no one, including “Transnistrians” themselves, for lack of Historic substructure and state viability; Or, which could be the best option, Moldova transferred it’s sovereignty over Transnistria to Ukraine in exchange for some territory of Historic Bessarabia, either in Norh Bucovina, Budjak, or both. Some extra Gagauz territory in Budjak could appease Gagauzians to not oppose unification with Romania which, in my opinion, should be the ultimate goal for Moldova. Note: I’m neither from Romania, nor Moldova, Ukraine, or anywhere near the region. Writing from the westernmost shores of Europe.
Theoretically that makes sense, but Ukraine wouldn't give up any of it's current territory in exchange for Transnistria. They don't want Transnistria either. It's complicated because neither Ukraine, nor Moldova wants another border with Russia, so we can't let it officially become a part of Russia. The good thing now is that Transnistria is isolated from Russia and it will be for a long time. I'm from Moldova and I don't see an obvious solution to this right now, but I think it could be possible to reintegrate it within Moldova (with some degree of autonomy) if/when Russia loses the war.
@@nobodyknows3260 Ukraine could take the Ukrainian villages, giving some Moldovan/Romanian villages in return (Herța/Mămăliga sau in sud - Cartal...); Russian dominated localties can stay as independent microscopic islands .. until they will beg for joining Ukraine or R. Moldova.
to add up to what was already said by the previous commentators, neither Ukraine nor Romania want to see Transnistria be given independence by the Republic of Moldova. that is unacceptable from the geopolitical perspective to have this russian black hole sandwiched in between. no one wants this constant factor of instability and threat to exist. if it was to be a normal peaceful country, that's one thing. but reality tells that a legally independent Transnistria would continue to be constantly exploited by russia as a factor of destabilisation in the region, and maybe even on a higher scale. if that's the case, it will be isolated by Ukraine and Romania. and russia will demand passage to it, and this instability will exist forever. that doesn't make sense for the population of Transnistria to be isolated, and it's better to agree on some form of autonomy within Moldova (while there is still an option), which will keep Moldova's ability to have its own foreign policy unhindered but will not let Moldova to be reunified with Romania unless Romania changes its administrative governance system, which doesn't allow special autonomous status for any region. the largest trading partner is the EU anyway, so there is no economical point in being a russia-directed isolated country without an ability to export anything from there. but that's a pragmatic perspective. ideological arguments and tensions run high here. and by the way, if we talk about it, there is one more problem. part of the territory on the left bank of Dnister claimed by Transnistria is controlled by Moldova. similarly, the city of Bender (Tighina) situated on the right bank of Dnister is not administratively recognised as part of the Transnistria region by Moldova. any settlement would require the definition of the status of these territories, and that would be yet another tough talk.
Thanks. The EU really doesn't want to take in countries with territorial disputes. Of course, the EU members are equally clear that third countries can't veto who can or cannot join. This is why Cyprus joined, despite Turkish warnings. But it will be hesitant to take on Moldova with an outstanding dispute - on top of the other problems that the country faces. But that is certainly not to say that there is no chance of membership. It's just that membership would be easier without the Transnistria dispute - although there would certainly be lots of things that would still need to be done in other areas.
@@JamesKerLindsay I have a question to your answer to the question: Hypothetically, wouldn't EU be able to accept the EU applicaitons of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and then defend them based on being an EU member state? This EU alliance would exclude USA & NATO so destroy a lot of the Russian narrative while also the only country with nukes in EU would be France. Which I think it would come out as a joke if Putin says "France is threatening us with nukes so we must defend ourselves".
Thanks James, the Greek Cypriot Cyprus membership is where I was going with my question. The EU broke their own rules in allowing a divided country with existing disputes / problems. So on the face of it there is nothing to stop Moldova's membership other then I guess the 'fear' of upsetting Russia. It appears there are more in the EU that are pro Russia than Pro Turkey and that is probably the bottom line.
Ukrainian military action can become very likely, depending on the situation around Mykolaiv and Odesa in the coming weeks and months. Besides the war, Ukraine has always had an interest in Transnistria, owing to its sizeable Ukrainian population and the fact that it used to belong to the Ukrainian SSR before the establishment of Moldavian SSR, and, being on the other side of the Dniester, was considered a part of the Ukrainian core territory despite its significant Romanian-speaking population. Some Ukrainian volunteers even fought against Moldova in the 90's war in Transnistria.
in the early 90s, the Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov considered the option of joining Transnistria to Ukraine, but Ukraine turned out to be indifferent to this proposal
Hi Dano, thanks so much. Yes, its would create problems. But I think the EU will feel that it is important to offer a membership perspective for Moldova, especially under current circumstances. However, I think there will be a lot of worry about taking in a divided state, especially after Cyprus. It creates a long-term irritant. As for NATO, I think it would want to keep Moldova at arms length for the meanwhile. Interestingly, Moldova can't join at the moment as its constitution states that it must be neutral. But one can certainly see the circumstances by which this changes.
Thanks so much. It is such an interesting and little-covered topic. (Well, it was until recently!) This was actually a situation that I had wanted to cover since I started the channel.
Hi ! You have a very great channel I always look forward to your amazing videos! I have a request. Can you please add Persian subtitles to your videos so we can grasp more of your knowledge, we'll be very thankful 🙏🏻
Many, many thanks. Can I just ask: is it possible for you to set the subtitles for a video at your end? Or do I have to do it? I’m not quite sure how it works. I do the English captioning and then translate it via Google into sone other languages. But I was going to stop as I though RUclips could do it anyway.
I spent some time camping and cycling in transnistria in 2017, enetering from Ukraine and exiting into Moldova proper. It actually caused some problems with the Moldovans as it is considered an ilegal entry. I had also tried to enter by bike in 2012 but they refused entry at the time. With consideration to the current situation I feel lucky to have been able to visit. In their capital I spent my first night in a rather empty but friendly hotel. As a lone traveler I like to meet locals and found a student who showed em around the city. Her English was excellent but I had intentionally sort her out as opposed to been asked just in case. Indeed, later she said it was likely that we were listened to. The next days I went northwards through a number of villages and smaller towns. In many ways the country is in a better state than Moldova or Ukraine. Everyone I spoke to were relatively positve about the country. That said, I think it is quite clear the country is propped up with Oligarch money, as is clear when you visit the only supermarket chain' sheriff which has plush pristine interiors. Alas, many countries have terrible origins, the US itself, or the foundation of Israel caused great displacement. Nevertheless, those who make up the popului of these countries today feel a sense of belonging and should not be judged on their forefathers. It has been 30 years since Transnistria was formed and for good or for bad their residents are relatively content with being independent. I met Transnistrians in Ukraine too who said the same. In the current climate I think it unwise to hand Russia any more power given the grave invasion of Ukraine. Hopefully the status quo can continue till a time when they can be a more independent state or an exclave of a Russia with whom we can trust. This seems unrealistic but then long may the status quo continue.
Had russia conquered Ukraine there was no doubt from me that Moldova and transnistria were their next target As Moldova isn't a NATO member and they like Ukraine in 2014 had a Russian military presence within their borders
Transnistria is a complete waste of time for Moldova. Obviously a few villages on both sides of the river need too be swapped but I say just give it up (yes I know we get the majority of our electricity from the Transnistrian region (due too decades of corruption) but that can be remedied by connecting more to Romania (which we're finally doing). The union will happen but Moldova isn't ready for it yet but Romania almost is. I say give it another 20 years. Gagauzia needs too be given up as well as that's an ethnic issue not too mention it's goofy autonomy they were, mistakenly given. Autonomy goes against Romania's constitution
I think maybe we should think about keeping Gagauzia, actual Gagauz are only about 110.000, they will have a much better life in Ro and EU than now and they will keep their culture just like all.other minorities in Romania
I'm not even against keeping the region as you're right that its tiny but I just think it would be an unnecessary headache. They wouldn't want too give up their autonomy and economically they are Moldova's poorest region so they would just be an extra cost after eventual reunification
Thanks. This is a new feature that RUclips is testing. I am not sure how many channels have it yet. What do you think about it? I didn't want to take the overly tough approach of telling people how they must behave, but instead tried to offer some more positive encouragement to be constructive, even if they don't like what I or other commenters have to say.
@@JamesKerLindsay I think that this custom version of channel specifically “guidelines” pop down banner is better than the rather generic that do not cover specific channel topics. For instance on channel I frequent - anyone with even the slightest differences in opinion with the crowd is called a “troll” or Paid Russian Troll or some type of automated BOT. Despite that channels host doing outreach to others of various opinions. Commenters to your channel are generally more civilized at the outset, as your demeanor draws that type. As opposed to the more hyperbolic.
There is the largest (according to some sources) ammunition depot in Europe (at least 20,000 tons) located in Transnistria . Ammunition of Soviet caliber, which Ukraine needs so much. Therefore, it is not very clear why the invasion from Ukraine is considered in the same paragraph as the invasion from Moldova because there is a possibility of an inconsistent invasion with Moldova.
That ammunition is in a such bad condition that it can't be moved without the risk of self destruction/explosion. Then it would amount to the explosion of a small nuke.
Thank you so much! I am so sorry I haven’t replied sooner. I only just saw this Super Thanks. (RUclips is meant to alert me, but somehow it didn’t.) I really appreciate your support. I hope all is well at your end. Again, my sincerest thanks.
Ukraine couldn't do anything. Transnistria has 3 active brigades and 20,000 reserves. That is just their local forces not including the Russian garrison.
Thanks. But I wouldn't be so sure. There are reports that a lot of young Transnistrian are already leaving to avoid conscription. Many might not want to fight. Also, I'm not sure many Russians would either if they have been seeing the pictures elsewhere. And don't forget that Ukraine has been heavily armed with sophisticated weaponry. I don't usually do military analysis as my focuses on the politics and diplomacy of conflict, but it seems clear that the Transnistrian military is far from a formidable force.
@@JamesKerLindsay Let's put it one way: Ukraine would need to commit at least 9 brigades to take on the defending 3. They don't have that to spare currently.
@@JamesKerLindsay As far as how formidable they may be I don't know but wouldn't want to find out. They are descendent from the 14th Guards Army, a front line Soviet iron curtain unit which itself descended from 5th shock army that fought in WW2. There is a long military tradition in the region. That tradition probably gives some understanding to why the region exists as a separate entity in the first place.
Do you have any idea how poorly ewuiped even the ‘russian peacekeepers’ are? They use straight off the shelf soviet tech, those Peacekeeping brigade. The 20.000 reservists would have just soviet era kalashnikovs at their disposal. No drones, vehicles or even body armor.
Thanks. Good question. I am not sure if you saw my video a couple of weeks ago on unification between Romania and Moldova. I put a link to it at the end of this one. In case you missed it, here is the link: ruclips.net/video/3IO4Pbmt4lg/видео.html
There seems to be a middle path of that is ukraine. That would seem to give the serelic elements that the transmistrians want and the european union approaching elements at the other side wants. It seems likely that moldova and romania would both be happy with a transnistria resolution, resembling pre two thousand fourteen crimea. I'm wondering why this solution hasn't been suggested? Why is everybody assuming it is either russia or maldova/romania?
The region is experiencing extreme demographic pressures as the young tend to leave and the population shrinks and grows older on both sides of the Dnieper. Perhaps looking into the demographics in more detail would yield a prognosis on the conflict`s evolution, provided reliable data is available. Knowing the historical and diplomatic background to a conflict is at times simply not enough.
Russia denied plans to invade Ukraine in early February this year only to invade on 24th. What Russia wants in Ukraine are not clear. Moldova is weak and looking westward to the EU. The rhetoric of Moldova likely to join NATO may be used by Russia
This I acknowledge that NATO and the EU aren't the same. But belonging to any of them are treated the same way in Putin's foreign policy. Moldova won't join NATO I admit
I wonder what would happen is Russia launched something from Transnistria, giving Ukraine an excuse to go in. What would Moldova do? I suspect they’d just sit back at the opposite border of Transnistria and watch.
Thanks. This is the really big question to my mind. If Ukraine did act, what would Moldova do? It could go several ways. It might be happy to let Ukraine do its work. But this would lave the question of what happens next. There would have to be discussions about a hand over. Alternatively, as you say, it might decide that if Kyiv acts it will also join it. This would need to be coordinated. Then again, it might be genuinely opposed to a Ukrainian move, seeing this as a violation of its sovereignty that, if it doesn't oppose, could leave it open to attack by Russia (which would see Moldova as effectively colluding with Ukraine). I guess this all underlines the very real problems that Moldova faces.
I wonder if Moldova could do a deal with Ukraine and Transnistria to allow Ukraine to annex Transnistria, Given Ukrainians and Moldovas make up the majority of the population it might be more acceptable than staying with Moldova or going to Russia. However this would need to happen after the defeat of Russia to Ukraine in the war.
Great video James! Complicated topic really. I really hope that Romania will send it armed forces in Moldova, and by that push back Russian thinking of invasion as it would be a direct attack on NATO army. You mentioned that Ukraine could invade Transnistria, but i think you stated the wrong reason. Ukraine is missing ammunition, and in Transnistria lies the biggest ammo storage in europe and it is compatable with ukrainian arms. Now whatever the reason may be, wouldn't it be a ukrainian invasion of Moldova? I also don't think that Ukraine has strenght to invade anything being that their army is barely capable of doing small counter attacks in small villages.
Thanks so much Nikola. Great point about the ammunition dump. But I wouldn't be so sure that Ukraine doesn't have the strength to make a move on Transnistria. The problem is that this would certainly be a diversion from where the troops are really needed. There are obviously all sorts of factors at play here. But I really don't think we are at that point yet. There's little sign that Russian forces are heading that way at the moment. But, as I said, I suspect that this could be an important potential situation to watch.
Thank you very much indeed! By the way, do keep an eye out for my next video. I’ll be taking a look at another interesting possible case of unification.
I could imagine a scenario where Moldova decides to take advantage of the fact that Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and decides to retake Transistria by force. I think if they were going to try this, it would have happened already. I suspect Moldova hasn't simply because it doesn't necessarily have much of a military to begin with and it probably wouldn't have the support of Western powers if it initiated conflict. However, it has always been difficult to imagine a prosperous and secure future for Moldova in its current condition. Some kind of action in Moldova is practically inevitable, even if they had been "comfortable with the status quo."
I can't see Moldova trying it I could see Ukraine but that would mean Ukraine invading a country it all depends how far the Russians are on the battlefield from Transnistria as of now a peaceful settlement would probably be the best.
Moldova doesn't have the military capabilities to take Tiraspol. It can barely defend itself without foreign intervention. Although hardly in any state for offensive operations, the Transnistrian army is more powerfull than everything Moldova can mobilise. Also don't forget that even if Russia will not be able to bring troops there, they can still use rockets to couse devastating attacks. It's best to leave that strange land alone.
It all sounds very nice in theory, but we actually don't want the cost and trouble of taking over that corrupt pit.' Is this: A Romania's political class talking about Moldova? B. Moldova's political class talking about Transnistria? C: A and B?
Do you think Romania is in anyway more corrupt than any of its EU neighbours or that particular EU region in general?There are obvious problems that definitely have to be confronted in Romania but I'm starting to smell some obvious troll farm activity regarding all this Romanian corruption bashing .Can't decide if this particular troll farm has it's main office to the Est or somewhere North West of our border.Joint venture maybe?
@@yumbam5546 Your diagnostic skills are lamentable. Transparency International corruption perceptions index 2021: Romania 66/180; Hungary 73/180; Moldova 105/180; Ukraine 122/180; Russia 136/180; Rwanda 52/180; Chile 27/180. See a cluster there?
My workmates missus comes from Moldova, he's Romanian, so I asked him about this and what he knows from her. He said that she's worried about her family and friends back home and they're equally worried about what the Russians will do. According to him, the Moldovans and the Transistrians actually don't like each other or trust each other very much so there's definitely a potential for something political to kick off there between the 2 people's and there being a another split in the region. What will happen? Who knows.....but Putin will be quite happy to increase tensions and exploit the issue. He's also said that the Moldovan armed forces are not capable of doing much to be honest so it wouldn't be capable of attacking anything more powerful than a boy scouts group.
Another Russian warship has started the special operation of creating an artificial reef, which would appear to make it less likely that Russia will capture Odessa and then occupy southern Ukraine all the way to Transnistria.
@@ElijsDima What will change? That sounds like a recipe for more cannon fodder being put in front of well trained and battle hardened Ukrainian forces. Badly trained, undisciplined, low morale and not so well equipped Russian troops have been dying in huge numbers. Yet here you are wanting more of the same.
You forgot to mention one scenario that you missed,what if Russia annexed the Odessa region,then Transnistria would form part of that region,this is the most likely scenario.
What about the Gagauzia peoples with their own autonomous regions, i think they would want a say in all this as i understand they are a Turkic people with learnings towards Moscow
This yet another legacy of Colonisation. Russian are not “native” to Transnistria….but were settled there. First by the Russian Empire….and later by the Soviets. As Machiavelli wrote: if you want to conquer a country, you must live there. These enclaves exist for one reason…..to destroy local demographic & political homogeneity. Just like the similar enclaves like South Ossetia in Georgia. Without these Enclaves….Moldova would already part of Romania
even so, the Russian colonization was different from the English. the Russians did not exterminate the indigenous people, as the British did with the redskins in America or in India, or in Africa, they did not take away slaves, etc. and the Russian Empire received the Transnistrian lands as a result of a fair war with the Ottoman Empire and liberated Bessarabia from the Turkish yoke. in the early years, it did not even levy taxes, it built infrastructure, railways, cities, and developed the economy in the region. in general, if you choose the type of "colonization", then I choose Russian.
I see the situation as @Ștefan Manea: I belive quite the same. Moldavians just have to abandone Transnistria and to build his way (european of they want it) without them. And..maybe is not a good ideea to speak about a union. Is better to speak about INTEGRATING it to UE & Schengen. I am romanian, exactly at the border of Rep. Moldova, currently workimg in NL. Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, doesn't matter what nation they are, no borders, all freedom. Is about vision and cooperation.
There will be something like peace konference of Versailles 1919 or Paris 1946, or even Vienna 1815 style in the future. Slovakia and Zakarpatska Ukraine to Viktor Orbán, Galicia and Volynia to Poland, Northern Bukovina, Besarabia and Snake Island to Romania and Left-bank Ukraine to Russia.
You can't claim to be part of a country just because half the population speak a extra language as well as the native. Its crazy this what's gone wrong with these people.
Moldova wants the reunification with the mother Romania. Transnistria doesn’t want Moldova. Therefore, a civil/peaceful divorce must happen. Moldova/Romania has to regain the control over Tighina/Bender and every inch on the right bank of Nistru. This must be the goal based on the current Russia /Ukraine war through means of peaceful negotiations. Moldova/Romania must not forget our brothers Moldovans/Romanians in Transnistria, but help and sustain them generously.
The federalisation of Moldova is nonsensical! Any veto power of Gagauzia or Transnistria would impact it's ability to join EU, NATO or an eventual reunification with Romania.
Thanks. But there are already federations within the EU. And there are many types of federal systems. In almost all cases, foreign policy remains a central government policy area without direct veto power from the federal units. A federal model need not be a block on EU membership.
If Moldova were to cut Transnistria loose, might this give Ukraine the impetus to attack the small contingent of Russian troops stationed there? Does Transnistria have its own army/militia? How might this affect the war in Ukraine as a whole? From a Ukrainian perspective, clearing the area of Russian troops could take pressure of their south-western border, and allow them to redeploy the troops stationed there to engage the main Russian forces in the east and south-east, however, if there is a significant Russian-backed militia, it may just be opening a huge can of worms. If Transnistria were to find itself on its own, how might this affect international recognition, and how might it affect their attitude to Moscow?
Looking at a map, it certainly seems to make more sense for Transnistria to join Ukraine. The Western borders have some rivers which are natural borders. It already has a large contingent of Ukrainian and Russian speakers. It would free both Ukraine and Moldova from additional Russian threats from the territory. If Ukraine invaded Moldova, it would have additional bargaining power at peace negotiations. Russia has been weakened and may just let the territory go to help with negotiations. I believe they would much rather have Crimea, for example or even keep their naval base there.
What future for transnistria ?...let s put it differently : what future for the russian offspring of russian colonists who settled there after russia had taken that land from the ottomans in the 19th century ? Well...they have to accept to become fully moldovan without retro identitarian reactionnism or they have to leave their former colony...just as the French left Haiti or the Brits left India.
My family fled from Donetsk to Transnistria... neither one of those regions would have any issue with being a part of Russia. Most would prefer it. That census information is bullshit too. Finding someone who speaks something other than Russian in Transnistria is rare.
I’m a Moldovan living in Chisinau, and the fact that the war brought this issue to a higher priority is both good and bad. If the worst happens, my relatives and I will be under Russian bombings, and i hope this issue settles peacefully. However, knowing what Putin had done in Georgia and what he’s doing right now in Ukraine, I’m fearing the worst
Though I am totally against Putin and Russian expansionist mentality, I do actually feel like Transnistria should be an independent state, or Russian annexed state, but anyway, not part of Moldova. My only argument is that the vast majority of its inhabitants are russian speaking russophones, I dare to call them even russophiles. If they want it, they should go for it. After the fall of the communist block in early 90s, Moldova has made tremendous, unimaginable progress towards democracy and EU. Of course, it still had Dodon and it's corruption scandals (see Plahotniuc), but the Moldovian population showed what they long for. Transnistria does nothing but delay the Moldovian ascension to the "normal world". I am not Moldovian, but Maia Sandu is a politician I wish I had in my country, and many other people would wish for someone like her. However, no matter how much the territorial integrity matters in their constitution, Moldovians should organise a referendum in Transnistria for its independence. Why have 2 "sad countries" when you can have "2 happy ones"? Anyway, thanks prof, kudos for video!
I think Ukraine has a good justification to attack the Russian forces inside Transnistria to secure its back if it can show there is a serious (imminent?) threat of them invading Ukraine from the west. Technically, they would be violating Moldovan territory in doing so, so if they got Maia Sandu's permission for military access, they should be fine in international law. However, it could be seen as a violation of Moldova's constitutionally enshrined neutrality. Moreover, if she says this publicly or it will leak out, then Russia may declare war or "special military operation" on Moldova as well, and she really doesn't want that. A more likely scenario seems to me that Ukraine attacks unilaterally without permission, saying clearly it seeks to respect Moldova's neutrality but must do it out of self-defence. Maia will then make some sort of public statement mildly condemning the violation of Moldovan territory, while practically tolerating it. The West will express concerns but tolerate it as well, and then the Ukrainians can go and chase the Russian Army out of Transnistria and end that pseudo-state.
The ideal solution is to let people of occupied areas live where they want to live. While Putin's Russia is attacking Ukraine then Transnistria best option is independence. If there is a section that is Romanian desiring that should go with Moldova. A section that is Ukrainian desiring should go with Ukraine and yhe section that is Russian desiring should remain independent until the end of the Putin-,Ukrainian War then if go with Russia. The big question is what should happen to the Transnistrian mercenaries that fought with Russia. They should be barred from ever returning to Transnistria.
Call yourself a proffesor a ?😂 Ill teach you real history: Do you know that 3 counties from south of Bessarabia was and still are private property for more then 100 years ? Same with central part of Bessarabia where the Capital is located and same with north part of Bessarabia. Do you know who has made the "Small Unification under Cuza" ? You dont know whats a land lord or nobility and what power they had at that time in Romania and Bassarabia because they had political office in both countries in same time. You dont know what power they had in other countries like in West and what lobby they made. What you say is reflected in your actual perception of facts (cheap politics that everyone think they know about it because everyone talks about it), not sacrifices made by land lords and nobles who has created the facto unification and what obligation had the new State to this hereditary selected people. You know the role of Tsarist Empired in Crimea War or in Bessarabia and the 1877-1878 Independence wars that was in East Europe and Balkan Peninsula ? You pass so quick from one period of time to other like is not important. Moldavian Republic by it self, was created not by "local leaders" schooled in Petrograd by soviets that nobody recognised in 1918, but was created by coup d'etet that shocked entire Europe and after by deportation and crimes in peace time and war time made by Moldavia, thats why Unification between Romania and so called Democratic Republic of Moldavia wasnt fully recognise from 1918 till 1935 or 1940. Better read American Federal Stimson Doctrine till you call yourself proffesor and tell this kids a fake idea about what is happening. All is related to history and what you pretend you teach, is not history at all, just a personal view under a history umbrella with the prefix "prof". Putin said at some point: violation of International Law that is the base of UN, Human Rights and Peace, will bring the hell on this Planet. But nobody has understand a thing and everyone got manipulated by own goverment and manipulative people who pretend that know everything and in special international history. Marxim was good like any other doctrine. Problem was rised when was put in practice and from there all crimes has arised. You cant tell me that guns kills people. People kill people useing guns. Crimes made by Moldova starting from 1918 till 1950, was made useing the pretext that is USSR fault but this info is fake and nobody will show in public the truth that is hiden in national archives. Is more easy to blame other side then yourself for own crimes just to get rich and get in power. Thats why Democratic Republic of Moldova from 1917 or 1918 had a short live (only few months of independence), moldavians wanted the money and power, not the unification with Romania. But when Democratic Republic of Moldavia was between white russians (nobility), red russians and local crime gangs, so called "local leaders" called for Unification to dont be killed...but they was still executed by USSR and white russians for their actions. Same story with Transnistria but this time USSR and actual Rusia act like a wachdog to International Law, Treaties, Conventions and so on. Are strange actual facts when most of the people on this planet has think that USA is a wachdog and police enforcer of International Laws and Human Rights....reality who seems is not so after all. Other think to mention: moldavia by state and moldavians by culture or etnicity, they dont have history and are not teach history. All their history start from USSR blameing USSR and thats it. No history about Crimea war and why happend, no history before Tsarist time and influence in the region. Moldavians are nomands and you lose them in details if you aske them how they have appear between Prut and Nistru rivers. Is so simple. Now i have seen you are from UK and you forgot to pay attention to nobility details from Moldavia history. Shame of you "proffesor". PhD a ? 😂
moldova has no port to supply their country direct from black sea access, difficult way because they cant freely trade export & import, offcourse some things like hungary now maybbe happen on this country i know it's crazy things that i'm thinks but this my thinks all about possibility of this "are they possibility if Odessa was took russia direct to transnistria/transdenister and for south area will be give to moldova goverment for being their tighting partnership russia & moldova (for reason making port, making access to balck sea owned by moldovan) , in other hand to punish & isolate ukraine because they president want or most people in ukraine who want to joint NATO" ??
It should probably be interpreted in conjunction with the newspaper article/headline shown simultaneously on screen. Some commenters also seem to hint at problems of this nature occurring in the region.
Three new nations to emerge emerge from the war. I am calling for the following three nations to become independent of Russia and form their own sovereign nations. Transnistrian, Crimea and Rostov-on-Don could be and should become their own nations, independent of Russia. Independence means each nation would be recognized by its own flag, it's own currency, national anthem and traditions developed based on each citizen making a choice based on national pride. The three countries mentioned above when they become independent of Russia would have their own voice on the international stage, at the Olympics and more importantly, borders. Borders that the peoples of the Earth would see each nation as a sovereign peoples of the world.
In practice, for many years these would be functionally similar to Belarus - independent on paper, a russian region in fact. But, maybe in terms of resolving the conflict, this would be a way out. However, if this happens, then Russia will try to create similar "breakaway" regions in all post-soviet independent countries (baltics etc.).
offtopic: do you want to make a video (or a text) about Irish unification and a future border poll considering the last election in Northern Ireland? I know much more about Transnistria than about Ulster, unfortunately. Is Ulster Independence a real third alternative to the UK and United Ireland?
Now in 2023, war situation in Ukraine has evolved from a year ago. The danger of Russia linking-up with Transnistria territorially is receding. Ukraine may want to coordinate with Moldova to squeeze Russia military out of Transnistria.
Funny thing about "transnistrians" and "gagauz" and "russians" in Moldova is that many of them have romanian citizenship and passports. Romania can save them anytime. Hopefully very soon.
Well i think the issue that many people do not bring to mention is that transnistria or pridnestrovia was never historically apart of romania or moldova. It was only added to the moldovan SSR. Moreover, there is the autonomous region in moldova of gagauzia who have the right to secede if any extreme measure is taken such as joining the EU. Then there is the reality that Moldovans as a whole are split as to whether they want to be closer with russia or the EU. But ultimately, russia has no intentions of invading or annexing Moldova as Moldova has no intentions in invading or annexing pridnestrovia. The situation in ukraine is unique because of the large russian speaking population and the close yet complex ties russia and ukraine had historically.
"areas Russia is seizing".......absurd bias. let's just ignore the democratic vote of the Crimean parliament in Simferopol for separation from Kiev, and the DPR and LPR declarations of independence following the 2014 coup. typical Guardian reader that fails to see democratic, popular movements against authoritarian Kiev.
![Yailin La Mas Viral, @kreizyk.official - Dale 2 (Remix) [Video Oficial]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/JaYHBzgqz94/mqdefault.jpg)
There has been a lot of talk about Transnistria in the news these past few weeks. This has cast a spotlight on what had previously been a rather obscure and little-known frozen conflict. But could we be about to see some movement on the thirty-year-old dispute? And, if so, what do you think will happen?
Could Transnistria survive as an independent state? I don't know what their major source of income is or its biggest export but given the size, shape, and location it doesn't seem like a very prosperous scenario. Another possibility is that as the war with Ukraine drags on, what if Russia just simply couldn't afford to fund all of their proxy wars and had to pull out? Although Russia is starting feel the effects of the sanctions, the full impact isn't expected until summer. In this scenario I think a peaceful agreement is possible. Thx Prof.
@@Todd.B No. That region is deserted. I went there last year and seeing young people there is a challenge. Either elders or toddlers. Tiraspol, the capital of this 'state' was once a bustling industrial city with some 300-400k population. Now it seems like an abandoned provincial town. A lot of building abandoned, few people on the streets for such a city. Transnistria had like 700k population back in 1991. It lost about half of the population by now, and is depleting even faster since Ukraine closed down its borders with it.
@@Kalimdor199Menegroth thx for that info
@@Kalimdor199Menegroth most transnistrias work Moldova, it's an open border and relations are good. If left to its own devices it might rejoin Moldova, the Romanian desire for unification with Moldova complicates things thought.
Guys, id like to give you native insight, as with all due respect, this video and all others about Moldova just recycle whats been written in western literature in last 30 years…. So:
Things have changed. ‘Transnistrians’ trade more with EU, many have Romanian passports and work abroad. They care more for their children and economic future than politics.
They realise that they are pawns and are sick of it, its only the elderly there left.
They would gladly join EU if they had the chance.
And Moldova… 40-45% support of Reunification with Romania.
However Romania did almost nothing to shape their opinion, Ro doesnt control the media.
Inside families, souls this self identification with Romania has always been there.
Dont confuse unification oercentage with how many people there feel Romanian.
They may say they are Molovan in Census because Moldovan means just eastern Romanian.
You can be Moldovan and Romanan at the same time.
Just like you can be both Saxon and a German, both a Sicilian and an Italian, both a Coriscan and a French.
Its regional identity vs national identity.
Moldovan is one of the three main Regional identities a Romanian can have..
Stalin’s bet was to make them in your eyes, the West a different people.
To us, we are brothers.
Then why not unification?
Well to update you to 2022..
Moldovas president talked about unification, she said it can be done inly by law and if the majority is 51% for.
Romanians president said ‘Unification is something only Romania can offer and only Moldova can accept’ and basically every election the Unification is a standalone subject in whih the candidates compete in who displays stringer unionism.
Romanian support for unification is 70-80% constantly since 1990..
Basically… its just anout time.. in how many years. That is the question.
We know how ti do it legally, we just support Moldova reach this critical majority and it grows year by year
As someone from Moldova i can finally recommend a good English video on the Transnistrian conflict
I'll venture asking you, do you have any sense of how Transnistrians, and their government, feel about this whole thing?
I feel we don't hear from them, ever.
Thank you so much. I appreciate it enormously. It really must be a worrying situation over there just now. Fortunately, the immediate threat seems to have lessened. But I can imagine the government and people are very concerned about how all this could yet go.
Their "government of Transnistria" is a Russia's puppet cabinet, appointed as result of fake elections. It has nothing to do with democracy, will of people, etc.
It sounds like most of Transnistira are against Russia. ⅔ are NOT Russian. I think Moldova should take Transnistria and if the Russians do not want to play nice then send them to Russia. This is just crazy that ⅓ of Transnistria is controlling the entire country.
@chrisvegamelo Hi! Can I ask what may be a ridiculous question for you, please? I have been looking at an article on the Transnistrian census for 2015, it shows Russians, at a push, only at about 30% of the population, yet seem to dictate policy, such as constitutional status, for the other 70% (29% Moldovan and 23% Ukrainian + others). Is there suspicion amongst the others of each other and the Russians are exploiting this? Thanks 🙏👍
Simply put..
Romania and Moldova are the same people
Separated by a deal between Stalin and Hitler (Ribbentrop-Molotov pact)
Romanian vs Moldovan identity was created by Stalin to confuse you.
Its like Mexico took over Texas and called the people there ‘Texans’ speaking ‘Texan’ language.
Romania has its own Moldova region which is everything that is east of carpathians.
The only difference between Romanian Moldova and Modlovan Moldova is where the Russian tanks stopped in WW2.
Lets end the debate. Its not even a debate. Its a plain malefic play of Stalin to alienate Romanians east of Prut River from their home country.
Period.
Not to mention that the only reason they defined the language in the constitution as "Moldovan" and not, let's say, Romanian (which it quite clearly is!) was because they wanted Moldova to have a clear separate national identity and prevent it's reunification with Romania.
@@suspendedtwice4sayingrasis261 The Republic of Moldova is neutral for one simple reason: Moldova' s Constitution was adopted in 1994 that is to say after Russia occupied Transnistria in 1992. Moldova lost the war because of Russian 's much stronger army and also because Ukraine helped Russia in that war. After having occupied Transnistria, Moscow threatened Moldova ' s leaders with full invasion in case Moldova did not mention specifically in the Constitution its neutrality and in case the Romanian language was mentioned there. Moscow said it should be called "Moldovan". That's why in the Constitution adopted in 1994 the name of the language is "Moldovan" and not Romanian while in the Declaration of Independence of 1991 the name of the language is Romanian.
After the break-up of the Soviet Union, our leaders planned to call Moldova The Romanian Republic of Moldova (Republica Romana Moldova) till its reunification with Romania (I have seen that draft of the Constitution), but Moscow opposed once more....
To sum up, the most sensitive articles of our Constitution of 1994 were written in the way Russia had decided and not in the way our Parliament had planned to vote for...
@@Pax_Romana_Caesar I knew it was because of Russian involvement, but I didn't actually know the specific details. Thank you for the interesting history lesson! ☺️
As a Romanian, I plan to visit Moldova somewhere in the future and I want to learn more about our brothers from beyond the Prut!
Your argument basically just says that you’re an irredentist, simple
@@crazypsychovirgoman6990 its not irredentism because Ro doesnt claim Moldova, it claims we are the same people and we offer Reunification with the Moldovans which nobody asked in 1940 if they want to give up their romanian citizenship and become members of the Soviet union.
We are one people, separated by the Ribentrop-Molotov pact.
Read first before commenting about irredentism which is different from unionism.
I hope you learned your lesson now
And yet some claim that Russia doesn't care about 'Trans' rights!
Ахахах
Thanks for discussing this timely topic. With the idea of "Novorussia" doctire, logic would tell us that Russia would in theory invade to bring all of Moldova under its control. But it is failing to conquer Ukrine, so Russia's goals in Ukriane have changed. So although Moldova is weak, Russia doesnt have the combat power to expand into attempting to seize Moldova. So a status quo of the current paradigm can be expected. Excellent video!!!!
Thank you so much Andrew. I agree. Had Russia taken Ukraine then it could well have just moved in to Moldova, especially as it has its allies there as well. It may have found people to act as a Quisling administration. But I think that this is on hold now, although it might change if Russia does manage to take the entire south of Ukraine. So, I guess that the continuation of the status quo does look to be the most likely outcome just at the moment.
I hope russia closes all its gaps and becomes peaceful while recognizing the secondary status of the languages of the nations it must absorb
@@JamesKerLindsay It will be interesting to see how Moldova manuvers to maintain their sovereignty, while working to remain neutral.
Moldova will not be able to take Transnistria back. It doesn't have an army. Which is the reason why Russia is playing the 'Romanian takeover' card. Ukraine is willing to do it, but it needs Moldova's approval, which I don't think is an issue. Resolving the Transnistrian issue would help Ukraine too, as they will no longer need to pin down troops near Transnistria.
And if Ukraine takes it can they hold it because it would definitely weaken the defense lines around Odessa.
IF Ukraine will go in Transnistria they can use the half a million inhabitants to exchange for the half a million ukrainian refugees from Russia
Ukraine can't afford to take troops off of the eastern and southern fronts.
@@danielc.9053 You can't trade Moldovan citizens for Russia
@@ems7623 Transnistria has 5k russian troops and can mobilize locals(which would lack in morale training and equipment), it is completely cut off from Russia, and it's geography is virtually undefendable except for Tiraspol itself
Great video on a very important topic! If a Russian annexation should happen at some point, I'm particularly worried about what borders Russia would consider proper for Transnistria. There are still small regions of the Dniester's right bank controlled by Moldova, as well as some regions on the rivers left side close to Tiraspol also under Moldovan control, but which the Transnistrian government considers to be their territory - a very dangerous situation if it should come that far.
Thanks. Great points. You are absolutely right. And this is where things could very difficult and dangerous for Moldova. Does it accept such a takeover of these areas? Or does it try to resist? And what would be the wider international reaction? Would Romania step in under such a provocation, despite being a NATO member? My sense is that Moldova will do what it can to avoid escalation. But it is certainly a worrying time.
@@JamesKerLindsay as a Romanian, I'm pretty sure our country will not decide to step up in a situation like this. Most probably because we are a NATO member and we're afraid of the consequences that may come after this.
Thanks. I would tend to agree. I think that even if Romania wants to step in, it will avoid doing so. And I think there would be huge pressure from NATO partners. But it will be a very dangerous moment.
@@dexithereal We should never intervene for Transnistria but should we intervene for Chisinau?
Yeah, that is also an important question in case of secession - where exactly the border would be? which again could escalate. Of course there might be local referendums in the disputed villages/cities (Tighina/Bender was supposed to be under joint control, but as I understood - separatists are slowly taking over the city), but there is still a problem - under separatist control there never were free elections, which again will raise tensions, if Moldova would want that only people with citizenship could vote(so that it would pe possible to have proper list of people living in the area), but separatist will claim that their shitty papers could also be used as authentication - again will escalate.
And full reunification is also not very probable, even if russia is taken out of ecuation - after reunification - all current and former functionaries under separatist regime will have to go to jail for 15-20 years for usurpation, so their "politicians" won't accept that.
Transnistria recent history is very interesting and controversial. I doubt Russia ever wanted to find a solution with Moldova, because by doing so it would loose its influence and open the doors of the west for Moldova. This clearly follows a common path with the other de-facto states in the caucasus and it will be almost impossible to find a solution as long as Russia is involved
Thanks Marco. I agree. Russia has certainly been more than happy to keep the issue dangling. And the similarities with the cases in the Caucasus are certainly very striking. It really is incredible how entrenched these sorts of conflicts can become.
I hope all else is well with you.
They were entrenched solely by Russia's will and geopolitical/strategic interests.
Russians are masters regarding making "frozen" conflicts in many regions of Europe ... see Moldova - Transnistria War 1992 , now this "frozen" conflict can start to be warm...again
This is why the simplest solution is: let it go and recognize Transnistria as independent. Its bargaining power (and by extent, Russia's) lies in interfering with Moldova's political process. An independent Transnistria means one less lever for Moscow in the region. Furthermore Transnistria is landlocked between two generally pro-Western states, so playing for Russia would be detrimental to its economy, Sheriff in particular.
Not to mention that in spite of everything, if we look at the events that lead up to Transnistria breaking away, it does somewhat fall within the principles of self-determination. They genuinely wanted to be part of the Soviet political space. Recognition of Transnistria wouldn't therefore be destabilizing because there are at least /some/ legitimate arguments for it to be independent, unlike the Donbas "republics".
If anything, Ukraine's smartest move in this war would be to strike a deal with Transnistria - Ukrainian/international recognition of independence in exchange of Transnistria expelling the Russian force, severing ties with Moscow, and giving Ukraine control over the Cobasna arms depot. Putin would implode if that happens.
Total nonsense.
Unsustainable as a potential country.
No legal reason whatsoever to recognize it as such and to claim this.
Following this logic, we should divide Europe into several thousand tiny quasi-states...
The more things change, the more they stay the same. I just hope the civilians of these countries can find some relief soon
I find this a high quality commentary. Thanks a lot. As a Romanian.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. Do pass it on if you think anyone else might be interested.
Ukraine and Moldova taking Transnistria would have a devastating effect on other Russian-backed breakaway states such as Artsakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Artsakh in particular relies almost solely on Russian peacekeepers to defend them from an Azerbaijani exodus/genocide. All these entities may reopen diplomacy if Russia cannot be relied upon.
And resisting Putin's invasion may start nuclear war.
Should we just let the bully be?
Reopen diplomacy with their formal states, right? That sounds like a good thing - more avenues/possibility to reach a satisfactory compromise for both parties, without relying on Russia... are you saying that would actually be detrimental to (the safety of) the people in some of these breakaway regions, bc a govt like Azerbaijan's might do smth bad? 🤔
Cause I don't get it.
@@dyawr In most cases removing the Russian military meddling would probably be to the benefit of everyone involved, but Azerbaijan is actually a special case where they will most probably attempt (and likely succeed at) genocide if given the chance. They fought a whole war over it in the last two years, and have been building museums full of war trophies like captured tanks and the literal skulls of their Armenian victims.
Armenians ethnically cleansed Azeris from the area in the 80s/90s.
@@phank.s.4052 This is true, and it was a fatal mistake that has complicated Armenian politics since. The government at the time embraced Armenian ultranationalist sentiments mainly from the diaspora that effectively forced the country into a maximalist, no retreat policy. Had they negotiated with Azerbaijan and offered to trade return of the seven districts in exchange for Artsakh, the situation could've been resolved and the territory officially Armenian.
Been looking forward to this. Thank you for needed clarity.
Thanks so much. Unfortunately, I couldn’t offer a single likely outcome - or not one that differed from the status quo, albeit under a rather different international context.
Great video Dr Ker Lindsay! I really like that you thoroughly looked through each possibility, even the unlikely ones. There certainly are a lot of plausible scenarios
In my personal opinion it’s likely that the status quo remains until such a time that Russia is able to reach Transnistria (if indeed Russia is able to, they are still a long way from there right now). The question is if they did connect to Transnistria and annex it or recognize its independence, what would then happen to Moldova proper? But first thing’s first, there’s no guarantee Russia even makes it to Tiraspol at this point.
Very prudent topic, great video!
Thanks a lot LocalLt. I had wanted to make a video on Transnistria for a very long time. But I wasn’t sure how much interest it would generate. How things have been turned upside down. The problem with the recognising independence scenario is that it has ceased to be of any value to Moscow. In fact it has become embarrassing. No one else seems to follow. My sense is that if it takes it, it might as well go all in an and annexe it.
Ukraine securing Transnistria seems like the most likely and "best" solution. One thing you didn't mention is the damage such a loss would do to President Putin's legitimacy in Russia. The loss of territory or client states is deadly to a Russian leader. As mentioned, it is also strategically important for Ukraine so given the weakness of the Russian presence there - there seems to be little downside.
The biggest problem is that it will drag Moldova into this war, and if Ukraine did that without the west "calling" for it, weapon shipments would slow down as the war in Ukraine is framed as a defensive war of survival, not a war of "liberation."
@@kx4998 I recognize that danger, but I don't think it holds given the following factors:
1. the extreme brutality of the Russian offensive
2. the legitimate strategic reasoning behind securing that flank
3. the UN General Assembly's call for the removal of Russian "peace-keepers"
Countries like Germany may use such a move to justify the fact that they are already reducing their commitment to military aid, but strategic benefits for the entire West are such that, unless Ukrainian forces were to commit atrocities in Transnistria, it would be a slap on the wrist at worst.
*People,* Ukraine isn't going to give the order to *occupy* parts of Moldova - another sovereign state. Lol. That would make Ukraine an *aggressor* nation, like Russia.
*If* Russia decides to use Transnistria as a diversion & tells the forces there to start shooting into Ukraine - *then* Ukraine can ofc shoot back & defend itself. And prob hold a meeting with Moldova's govt, to ask if they can enter the territory & secure the region, so that shelling stops (in both directions). They might get approval.
❗If Transnistria *doesn't* attack though, Moldova will prob not approve of such takeovers, as it would lead to bloodshed (of its citizens), *stir-up Russia - giving it a pretext to invade,* and break their (constitutional) committment to neutrality & peace.
So, no use in talking about "Western reaction" to such an event - bc if it's done *legitimately* & not invasively, no one is gonna have a prob with that. (why would they - the official govt of Moldova, would be calling on Ukraine for help...)
@@aaronjones8905 I don't think it really matters if Odessa falls what morale would Ukrainian troops have to defend a part of Moldova that would fall fast after Odessa.
@@bilic8094 From the analysis I have heard, the fall of Odessa is extremely unlikely for the following reasons:
1. Ukraine's sinking of the Moskva force the Russian Navy to pull further back from the Black Sea shoreline
2. Odessa has had the most amount of time to fortify with the least amount of bombardment
3. Unless Russia's ability to subdue major metropolitan areas drastically improves - there is little reason to conclude they could take a city as large as Odessa.
As Emperor Palpatine said: "A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one". I was just about to go to sleep when I saw you made a video on Transnistira, and I figued I could spare myslef 15 more minutes. Thank you for explaining the whole situation in detail & focusing on the possible future of Transnistria & Moldova. While it is clearly a bad move for Romania to support Moldova in case of Russian aggression, I wouldn't bet against it due to the Romanian population being overwhelmingly in favor of it, which may escalate the conflict even further.
In case of Russian capture or Odessa, I'm 90% sure Russia would recognize Transnistria who would join the war against Ukraine and this time Moldova. But given the current frontline, I find that unlikely, but not impossible. A Moldovan invasion of Transnistria I find impossible due to Moldova's stance of the conflict. However, I find a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria with Moldovan approval more likely in order to secure their flanks from the Russian invasion. Should Russia lose the war, I believe leaving Transnistria as required by the treaty they signed to UN would be one of the requirements, thus softly solving the conflict. And I don't think Moldova would give up on the territory given the Moldovan population living there. In the end however, unless Russian troops reach Transnistria, I don't find much change of changing the status quo.
At the end of the day, Transnistrians politicians don't want to lose their power, and would only do so if given no other choice, another choice which would mean an armed conflict. Which as long as Russia doesn't invade Moldova or Ukraine asks Moldova to allow to move their troops in Transnistria and Moldova accepts, I don't see it happening. In the end, I would say 60% chance of the status quo being maintained. There is also the possibility that Transnistria under Russian order would start to attack Moldova/Ukraine by itself under Mocow's orders, however, I don't think they will commit to it until they are sure that Russia has the upper hand, which it currently doesn't so Transnistria is unlikely to make a move by themselves.
Good morning there! Well you did ask for them and I hope I delivered, eventually. :-) Seriously, I know it was a long time coming. Apologies!
Thanks. I think we are probably on the same page about the direction this seems to be taking. I suspect that the status quo could well hold, even if the wider international political context changes. But it would be interesting ti see what happens if Russia can't reinforce its troops in Transnistria any longer and all the money starts to dry up. One could see a situation where Transnistria increasingly integrates still further with Moldova. The question in such situations is how to make the final leap to a formal political deal.As you said, the Transnistrian leadership really doesn't seem to want to give up its power. And I'm not sure Moldova would be willing to accept the devolved structures that Tiraspol would want.
@@JamesKerLindsay You delivered and exceeded my expectations, thank you for taking the time to make the videos. And no apologies needed.
If the status quo is maintained, I doubt Moldova & Ukraine will organize a full blockade, given it could lead to citizens starving and I think Moldova & Ukraine have more respect for human lives than Russia. But it could eventually form a blockade against Russia, allowing Transnistria to trade with the rest of the world, which would still cause poverty but not to the point where they become North Korea 2.0. I don't think Transnistria would reunite with Moldova in spite of economic hardships. (1) The corrupt leadership will never want it, unless maybe they get a position as governor or something (2) I was going to say ethnic reasons, that Russians will never want to be part of Moldova, but with 29% Moldovans & 23% Ukrainaisn (52% total) vs 29% Russians, I think the pro-Moldovans will have the upper hand. Assuming the Moldovans & Ukrainians in Transnistira do not have a "sovietized" mindset like some older generations of Moldovans still have.
Personally, I believe Ukraine & Moldova should take any form of action against Transnsitria because this passivity to Transnsitria is not serving them in any way. If Russia is to reach Transnsitria, it is guaranteed to attack Moldova and be a bigger threat to Ukraine on the southern front. So whether they like it or not, Moldova will still be drawn to this conflict regardless of its passivity. Better to be prepared and make sure that Russia doesn't have a large frontline if they intervene.
Don't take this wrong, I love democracy, it's the best system we've had so far. But one of the greatest weaknesses of democracy is its unwillingness to stand up to a bully and tendency to go for appeasement in tense situations. And I'm not saying this based on Czechoslovakia in 1938 alone. Which is understandable, when people are free they don't want to go to war and die, but at the same time it's one of the biggest strength of democracies because people feel like they are fighting for something (buffs and debuffs). I believe a case can be made that Transnsitria is sovereign Moldovan territory and Moldova is basically taking back its own land taken by the Russians previosuly, of course Russia will cry this out "terrorist attack" and declare war on Moldova, but it's something which they will do anyway if they reach Transnistria.
So it's a bit of a game theory:
- Moldova is passive, Putin advances, attacks Moldova with an advantageous position.
- Moldova is active on Transnistria, Putin advances, attacks Moldova with a disadvantageous position.
- Moldova is passive, Putin doesn't advance, not much happens.
- Moldova is active on Transnistria, Putin doesn't advance in Ukraine, not much Russia can do about it anyway.
Moldova is likely passive because it doesn't want to be dragged into the war, but I think Moldova will be dragged into the war anyway, it's a matter of "when".
Putin loves history, and he probably knows that in 1940 the Russians argued that taking Bessarabia "it's a matter of national pride". He will probably feel the same way if given the chance, given Moldova's small army.
From Putin's POV, he already broke international law 200 times and started a war, what's the escalation at this point if he broke international law 200 times and started 2 wars. It's like: if you crashed 1 car is bad, if you crashed 2 cars is twice as bad. If you crashed 28 cars is bad, if you crashed 29 cars is meh compared to the 28 cars, same thing. But applied to international politics. Putin doesn't have much to lose and has already stepped that line a long time ago. His only concern is that Moldova is not part of Nato, any ethic concernes can be thrown right off the table.
I think Putin's mindset is that of a realist, he's thinking how things are, not how they should be, practicality is his main interest rather than ethic or ideologic concerns, he's sherewed and not acting based on preferences but how things are, how most things are likely to be "the ugly truth" sort of thing, if he can get away with it, he'll do it. We could be speaking of the norm not the exceptions in international politics, but I think Putin has often proven that he is the exception and doesn't care about the norm of international politics. In fact, the "norm" for him is just another tool to use, he has his mind set of practicality, what can he do and get away it.
That being said, he's not the mastermind chess player he tries to appear to be, but he is very adaptive because of his practicality mindset he has, which I think is a relic from his KGB years, it's very useful as a spy.
I'll stop here before I turn this into a doctorate.
The Moldovan population of Transnistria is for Russia. Like half of the population of Moldova itself.
I feel like Transnistria probably doesn’t like Russia as much now because Moldovans and Ukrainians together are majority, and Ukrainians in Transnistria probably don’t like Russias war in Ukraine
I think that is part of the troubles in Transnistria at the moment, is Ukrainians and Russians fighting it out.
the majority of Ukrainians are Russians, they are almost one nation.
@@kiki-zt8fz you are the Nation you think you are, so even many Russian speaking Ukrainians call themselves Ukrainian. Likewise there will be Ukrainian speakers in Russia (probably not many most would speak Russian as their main language) that consider themselves Russian.
I'd say, recognize them. But leave it open to them coming back via referendum if they ever change their mind. Then Moldova can focus on itself, and join the EU and NATO. Build itself up. While offering anyone in Transnistria citizenship in their country if they so desire. Erode them over time. Without ever using force.
Thanks. I can see the logic for this. The trouble is that Russia may just decide that it is too valuable to use that wedge of territory as an irritant to let it decide to move towards the West. The passport issue is an interesting one. It comes up in other situation. On the one hand, it creates an important link between a breakaway territory's citizens and the parent state. On the pother hand, it makes the division comfortable for the breakaway territory. They can get the benefits of being citizens but continue to live in their own statelet. We see this is Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots are Cypriot citizens, and thus EU citizens. While many want reunification, many hardline nationalists are happy to have that useful Cypriot citizenship, but have no need to push for a settlement. It's a really interesting and difficult issue.
Interesting prognonsis, with all the possibilities listed - and this portion of land has always had me curious. I have never been to Moldova and thus am curious - how is the border situation within Moldova to the region - for an ordinary civilian, is Transnistria accessible ? (understandably so - football does not help in understanding situations but got my curiosity when a Moldovan team for the Champions league this season was from Tiraspol and the matches were played in Tiraspol).
I see annexation of a landlocked territory unlikely unless Russia manage the landbridge - but yes, as you mentioned, this is most likely to be a frozen conflict for years to come.
It's an open border with Moldova, relations are good, many trannistrians cross everyday for work. Until the Ukrainio Russo war there was no real problem.
@@merocaine The dill want a real problem.. so they will get it if they try to invade)) we are ready.
Thanks Anirudh. It is actually a really interesting situation. Although I have never been either, I have heard from colleagues who have studied Transnistria extensively that the dispute is actually rather different from many other similar conflicts inasmuch as it is marked by relatively little hostility. By all account, the line is open and easily crossed. There is also a lot of trade and there's been growing interaction in other ways over recent years. And the point about the football teams is fascinating. It really does seem to be a conflict centred on the elites rather than driven by ethno-national animosity.
Love the new vid.
I think it’s likely that Moldova will detach itself from Transnistria following the recent push to join the EU with a wide support from the EU.
Like you said, Transnistria is historically a Slavic land. It’s already has an established border, and Moldova has little say about what’s happening in the territory.
I don’t believe the war in Ukraine will be resolved as quick as I would wish. That means a prolonged conflict which eventually may result in land bridge from Russia to Transnistria and a resolution to the conflict between Moldova and Transnistria.
Great video.
Aren't the Russian troops stationed in Transnistria/Moldova, as an obvious threat,fair game for Ukraine under international law or will Ukraine be regarded as an agresor if it intervene.
🇷🇴🇲🇩🇺🇦
It's an issue if Ukraine can spare anything to take on the little exclave. They still have to keep an eye on the north and the East and South are still on fire...
I think Ukraine has a good justification to attack the Russian forces inside Transnistria to secure its back if it can show there is a serious (imminent?) threat of them invading Ukraine from the west.
Technically, they would be violating Moldovan territory in doing so, so if they got Maia Sandu's permission for military access, they should be fine in international law. However, it could be seen as a violation of Moldova's constitutionally enshrined neutrality. Moreover, if she says this publicly or it will leak out, then Russia may declare war or "special military operation" on Moldova as well, and she really doesn't want that. A more likely scenario seems to me that Ukraine attacks unilaterally without permission, saying clearly it seems to respect Moldova's neutrality but must do it out of self-defence. Maia will then make some sort of public statement mildly condemning the violation of Moldovan territory, while practically tolerating it. The West will express concerns but tolerate ot as well, and then the Ukrainians can go and chase the Russian Army out of Transnistria and end that pseudo-state.
Thanks. Great question. We would enter very interesting political and diplomatic territory. Transnistria is officially regarded as Moldovan sovereign territory. If Ukraine invaded then a lot would depend on Moldova's reaction. Chisinau might feel the need to put up a pro forma objection, but may in fact welcome it. Then again, it could see it as a genuine threat to its security and officially call for Ukraine to withdraw.
Im 36 and finally a father figure is explaining the world to me
Another great video Prof James .
I'd been thinking that the situation for Transnistira (and a whole lot more IMO) will depend on how the war goes and in particular if Odessa falls (Ukraine losing sea access).
Might not seem likely the way the situation is being reported, but it's a war so who knows what could happen.
PS:. The 'Please show respect' banner before posting comments was a good idea :)
Thank you so much. I agree. So much of the now seems to hinge on Odessa.
And thanks also for letting me know what you thought about the guidelines. This is an experimental feature on RUclips. I guess that it isn't going to stop anyone who wants wants to be abusive, but hopefully it just gives a moment for people to think about their comments. Fortunately, the comments here do tend to be really good.
You missed Gagauzia. I think it's worth touching upon
Thanks. Yes, another interesting issue. But one for another video. The problem is that it gets very difficult to weave in lots of different issues without making things too confusing.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks for replying. Gagauzia will be a major player if Moldova decides anything major
@@JamesKerLindsay Great Video but I agree a second video about Gagauzia could be cool! You should make videos about stateless ethnicities in Europe! The Rus in the carpathians could be a cool suggestion too.
@@AimonsL_oignon i'm curious, why do you think so? The people from Gagauzia are christian turks, not russians and Irina Vlah (the local leader) seems to be interested more about the well being of her people than being loyal to Kremlin
@@vlad16382 from what I remember Gagauzia is highly autonomous and decisions such as joining NATO or launching an attack would certainly need Russian approval
I see little benefit for Ukraine in attacking Transnistria at this stage. The last thing they need is a second front, and more importantly they'd be foolish to jeopardize Europe's united stand against Russia by invading what's legally Moldovan territory and potentially causing a serious diplomatic incident. That wouldn't happen (in my view) without Moldovan consent and clear evidence of an imminent Russian attack from that front.
Preemptive strike on Transnistria is necessary if the Russians go towards Odessa.
Thanks guys, you all talking about my home. 🤦🏻♀️🙀 I'm in interesting if it was yours, it's also fine? Transnistria is not Russia and from here Russian army or our will never attack nobody - just learn it and repeat again.
It may boil down to "attack or be attacked from behind" thinking, unfortunately.
@@user-irrrrrr0000 "Transnistria is not Russia" - hopefully. But it looks like a de-facto Belarus. "from here Russian army never attack nobody" - It is not possible to trust this statement, unfortunately. Russian army has *proved* that it is ready and willing to attack from Russian ground, *and* from ground of pro-Russian "independent" countries (Belarus). So why wouldn't the Russian Army attack from another pro-russian "independent" ground? Are the Transnistrians going to stop them? (ofc not...)
@@ElijsDima Like was saying our president yesterday, even at the Ukraine people who talk about this posibility, just talking and know very good that it's impossible. Imagine tommorow u read news about possibily danger from Rhode Island to the neighbors ? it's insane. And comparing us with Belarus from the same series, people decide here and none propaganda will change the situation.
Hello from Moldova.
Good morning. I hope that all is well over there.
@@JamesKerLindsay for now is fine.. thanks
Hello, from west Romanian Moldova
I believe there is no sense in Moldova to maintain sovereignty over Transnistria, even only de jure. It makes little sense for Moldova to have territory beyond the Nistru. Presently it may be more industrialized and energy rich than Moldova proper, but will always be a focus of tension and a hindrance in whichever path Moldova wants to follow. Since it’s practically impossible for the territory to be ceded Russia (now more than ever), there are two options. Either independence, but I think that wouldn’t benefit no one, including “Transnistrians” themselves, for lack of Historic substructure and state viability; Or, which could be the best option, Moldova transferred it’s sovereignty over Transnistria to Ukraine in exchange for some territory of Historic Bessarabia, either in Norh Bucovina, Budjak, or both. Some extra Gagauz territory in Budjak could appease Gagauzians to not oppose unification with Romania which, in my opinion, should be the ultimate goal for Moldova.
Note: I’m neither from Romania, nor Moldova, Ukraine, or anywhere near the region. Writing from the westernmost shores of Europe.
Ukraine doesn't need a region where popular support for war against Ukraine is higher than in Russia itself
Not to mention it being underdeveloped and full of illegal activity
Theoretically that makes sense, but Ukraine wouldn't give up any of it's current territory in exchange for Transnistria. They don't want Transnistria either. It's complicated because neither Ukraine, nor Moldova wants another border with Russia, so we can't let it officially become a part of Russia.
The good thing now is that Transnistria is isolated from Russia and it will be for a long time.
I'm from Moldova and I don't see an obvious solution to this right now, but I think it could be possible to reintegrate it within Moldova (with some degree of autonomy) if/when Russia loses the war.
@@nobodyknows3260 Ukraine could take the Ukrainian villages, giving some Moldovan/Romanian villages in return (Herța/Mămăliga sau in sud - Cartal...); Russian dominated localties can stay as independent microscopic islands .. until they will beg for joining Ukraine or R. Moldova.
to add up to what was already said by the previous commentators, neither Ukraine nor Romania want to see Transnistria be given independence by the Republic of Moldova. that is unacceptable from the geopolitical perspective to have this russian black hole sandwiched in between. no one wants this constant factor of instability and threat to exist. if it was to be a normal peaceful country, that's one thing. but reality tells that a legally independent Transnistria would continue to be constantly exploited by russia as a factor of destabilisation in the region, and maybe even on a higher scale. if that's the case, it will be isolated by Ukraine and Romania. and russia will demand passage to it, and this instability will exist forever.
that doesn't make sense for the population of Transnistria to be isolated, and it's better to agree on some form of autonomy within Moldova (while there is still an option), which will keep Moldova's ability to have its own foreign policy unhindered but will not let Moldova to be reunified with Romania unless Romania changes its administrative governance system, which doesn't allow special autonomous status for any region. the largest trading partner is the EU anyway, so there is no economical point in being a russia-directed isolated country without an ability to export anything from there. but that's a pragmatic perspective. ideological arguments and tensions run high here.
and by the way, if we talk about it, there is one more problem. part of the territory on the left bank of Dnister claimed by Transnistria is controlled by Moldova. similarly, the city of Bender (Tighina) situated on the right bank of Dnister is not administratively recognised as part of the Transnistria region by Moldova. any settlement would require the definition of the status of these territories, and that would be yet another tough talk.
Very good research, very much on point.
Well done again, thank you! 🇷🇴 🇲🇩
Thank you very much!
Can you please explain why the current situation would not allow Moldova to join the EU?
Thanks. The EU really doesn't want to take in countries with territorial disputes. Of course, the EU members are equally clear that third countries can't veto who can or cannot join. This is why Cyprus joined, despite Turkish warnings. But it will be hesitant to take on Moldova with an outstanding dispute - on top of the other problems that the country faces. But that is certainly not to say that there is no chance of membership. It's just that membership would be easier without the Transnistria dispute - although there would certainly be lots of things that would still need to be done in other areas.
@@JamesKerLindsay I have a question to your answer to the question: Hypothetically, wouldn't EU be able to accept the EU applicaitons of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and then defend them based on being an EU member state? This EU alliance would exclude USA & NATO so destroy a lot of the Russian narrative while also the only country with nukes in EU would be France. Which I think it would come out as a joke if Putin says "France is threatening us with nukes so we must defend ourselves".
Thanks James, the Greek Cypriot Cyprus membership is where I was going with my question. The EU broke their own rules in allowing a divided country with existing disputes / problems. So on the face of it there is nothing to stop Moldova's membership other then I guess the 'fear' of upsetting Russia. It appears there are more in the EU that are pro Russia than Pro Turkey and that is probably the bottom line.
Ukrainian military action can become very likely, depending on the situation around Mykolaiv and Odesa in the coming weeks and months. Besides the war, Ukraine has always had an interest in Transnistria, owing to its sizeable Ukrainian population and the fact that it used to belong to the Ukrainian SSR before the establishment of Moldavian SSR, and, being on the other side of the Dniester, was considered a part of the Ukrainian core territory despite its significant Romanian-speaking population. Some Ukrainian volunteers even fought against Moldova in the 90's war in Transnistria.
in the early 90s, the Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov considered the option of joining Transnistria to Ukraine, but Ukraine turned out to be indifferent to this proposal
THANKYOU Putin for helping give NATO more solidarity than its ever had since WW2, and THANKYOU Putin for helping Finland and Sweden join NATO!!!!!
Very interesting and informative video, thank you very much James!
Thanks so much, as ever. :-)
Thank you for yet another informative video!
If the conflict isn't solved, wouldn't it jeopardise Moldovan membership of EU and NATO?
Hi Dano, thanks so much. Yes, its would create problems. But I think the EU will feel that it is important to offer a membership perspective for Moldova, especially under current circumstances. However, I think there will be a lot of worry about taking in a divided state, especially after Cyprus. It creates a long-term irritant. As for NATO, I think it would want to keep Moldova at arms length for the meanwhile. Interestingly, Moldova can't join at the moment as its constitution states that it must be neutral. But one can certainly see the circumstances by which this changes.
Well I learned something today! Thank You!
Thanks. Really appreciated. :-)
Thanks for another very interesting video, this time on this little-discussed topic!
Thanks so much. It is such an interesting and little-covered topic. (Well, it was until recently!) This was actually a situation that I had wanted to cover since I started the channel.
Great video! Keep it up!
Thanks so much!
Hi ! You have a very great channel I always look forward to your amazing videos!
I have a request. Can you please add Persian subtitles to your videos so we can grasp more of your knowledge, we'll be very thankful 🙏🏻
Many, many thanks. Can I just ask: is it possible for you to set the subtitles for a video at your end? Or do I have to do it? I’m not quite sure how it works. I do the English captioning and then translate it via Google into sone other languages. But I was going to stop as I though RUclips could do it anyway.
I spent some time camping and cycling in transnistria in 2017, enetering from Ukraine and exiting into Moldova proper. It actually caused some problems with the Moldovans as it is considered an ilegal entry. I had also tried to enter by bike in 2012 but they refused entry at the time. With consideration to the current situation I feel lucky to have been able to visit.
In their capital I spent my first night in a rather empty but friendly hotel. As a lone traveler I like to meet locals and found a student who showed em around the city. Her English was excellent but I had intentionally sort her out as opposed to been asked just in case. Indeed, later she said it was likely that we were listened to.
The next days I went northwards through a number of villages and smaller towns. In many ways the country is in a better state than Moldova or Ukraine. Everyone I spoke to were relatively positve about the country. That said, I think it is quite clear the country is propped up with Oligarch money, as is clear when you visit the only supermarket chain' sheriff which has plush pristine interiors.
Alas, many countries have terrible origins, the US itself, or the foundation of Israel caused great displacement. Nevertheless, those who make up the popului of these countries today feel a sense of belonging and should not be judged on their forefathers. It has been 30 years since Transnistria was formed and for good or for bad their residents are relatively content with being independent. I met Transnistrians in Ukraine too who said the same.
In the current climate I think it unwise to hand Russia any more power given the grave invasion of Ukraine. Hopefully the status quo can continue till a time when they can be a more independent state or an exclave of a Russia with whom we can trust. This seems unrealistic but then long may the status quo continue.
Had russia conquered Ukraine there was no doubt from me that Moldova and transnistria were their next target
As Moldova isn't a NATO member and they like Ukraine in 2014 had a Russian military presence within their borders
Россия сегодня это не СССР, и Молдова ей не нужна.
Another informative presentation - well done and thank you.
Thanks you so much Brian!
Transnistria is a complete waste of time for Moldova. Obviously a few villages on both sides of the river need too be swapped but I say just give it up (yes I know we get the majority of our electricity from the Transnistrian region (due too decades of corruption) but that can be remedied by connecting more to Romania (which we're finally doing). The union will happen but Moldova isn't ready for it yet but Romania almost is. I say give it another 20 years. Gagauzia needs too be given up as well as that's an ethnic issue not too mention it's goofy autonomy they were, mistakenly given. Autonomy goes against Romania's constitution
I think maybe we should think about keeping Gagauzia, actual Gagauz are only about 110.000, they will have a much better life in Ro and EU than now and they will keep their culture just like all.other minorities in Romania
I'm not even against keeping the region as you're right that its tiny but I just think it would be an unnecessary headache. They wouldn't want too give up their autonomy and economically they are Moldova's poorest region so they would just be an extra cost after eventual reunification
@@alexandru5369 true, maybe it's not worth it
Im noting the “guidelines” warning - why is that not the norm?!?
That said love the content!
Thanks. This is a new feature that RUclips is testing. I am not sure how many channels have it yet. What do you think about it? I didn't want to take the overly tough approach of telling people how they must behave, but instead tried to offer some more positive encouragement to be constructive, even if they don't like what I or other commenters have to say.
@@JamesKerLindsay I think that this custom version of channel specifically “guidelines” pop down banner is better than the rather generic that do not cover specific channel topics.
For instance on channel I frequent - anyone with even the slightest differences in opinion with the crowd is called a “troll” or Paid Russian Troll or some type of automated BOT. Despite that channels host doing outreach to others of various opinions.
Commenters to your channel are generally more civilized at the outset, as your demeanor draws that type. As opposed to the more hyperbolic.
Thanks for yet another great piece!!
Thanks so much!
There is the largest (according to some sources) ammunition depot in Europe (at least 20,000 tons) located in Transnistria . Ammunition of Soviet caliber, which Ukraine needs so much. Therefore, it is not very clear why the invasion from Ukraine is considered in the same paragraph as the invasion from Moldova because there is a possibility of an inconsistent invasion with Moldova.
That ammunition is in a such bad condition that it can't be moved without the risk of self destruction/explosion. Then it would amount to the explosion of a small nuke.
Thanks!
Thank you so much! I am so sorry I haven’t replied sooner. I only just saw this Super Thanks. (RUclips is meant to alert me, but somehow it didn’t.) I really appreciate your support. I hope all is well at your end. Again, my sincerest thanks.
Excellent, well done.
Thank you very much!
Ukraine couldn't do anything. Transnistria has 3 active brigades and 20,000 reserves. That is just their local forces not including the Russian garrison.
Thanks. But I wouldn't be so sure. There are reports that a lot of young Transnistrian are already leaving to avoid conscription. Many might not want to fight. Also, I'm not sure many Russians would either if they have been seeing the pictures elsewhere. And don't forget that Ukraine has been heavily armed with sophisticated weaponry. I don't usually do military analysis as my focuses on the politics and diplomacy of conflict, but it seems clear that the Transnistrian military is far from a formidable force.
@@JamesKerLindsay Let's put it one way: Ukraine would need to commit at least 9 brigades to take on the defending 3. They don't have that to spare currently.
@@JamesKerLindsay As far as how formidable they may be I don't know but wouldn't want to find out. They are descendent from the 14th Guards Army, a front line Soviet iron curtain unit which itself descended from 5th shock army that fought in WW2. There is a long military tradition in the region.
That tradition probably gives some understanding to why the region exists as a separate entity in the first place.
Do you have any idea how poorly ewuiped even the ‘russian peacekeepers’ are?
They use straight off the shelf soviet tech, those Peacekeeping brigade.
The 20.000 reservists would have just soviet era kalashnikovs at their disposal. No drones, vehicles or even body armor.
Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻. Yet another brilliant vlog.
Why wouldn't Moldova be able to rejoin Romania? It seems like that would guarantee safety for the area since Romania is a NATO and EU member.
Thanks. Good question. I am not sure if you saw my video a couple of weeks ago on unification between Romania and Moldova. I put a link to it at the end of this one. In case you missed it, here is the link: ruclips.net/video/3IO4Pbmt4lg/видео.html
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks Prof!
Whatever happens, I doubt Europe will ever be the same again...
There seems to be a middle path of that is ukraine. That would seem to give the serelic elements that the transmistrians want and the european union approaching elements at the other side wants. It seems likely that moldova and romania would both be happy with a transnistria resolution, resembling pre two thousand fourteen crimea. I'm wondering why this solution hasn't been suggested? Why is everybody assuming it is either russia or maldova/romania?
The region is experiencing extreme demographic pressures as the young tend to leave and the population shrinks and grows older on both sides of the Dnieper. Perhaps looking into the demographics in more detail would yield a prognosis on the conflict`s evolution, provided reliable data is available. Knowing the historical and diplomatic background to a conflict is at times simply not enough.
This just shows how seriously difficult diplomatic agreements are.
Amazing video!!!
Thank you so much! Have a great weekend. :-)
Russia denied plans to invade Ukraine in early February this year only to invade on 24th. What Russia wants in Ukraine are not clear. Moldova is weak and looking westward to the EU. The rhetoric of Moldova likely to join NATO may be used by Russia
He even mentioned in this very video that Moldova is NEUTRAL (clearly stated in their constitution). They only want to join the EU, not NATO.
Moving west doesn't seem well with Putin. The EU after February 24th is different. The EU sent military aid to Ukraine
@@maserekasimon9537 My point was that the EU and NATO are not the same organisation. Be specific!
This I acknowledge that NATO and the EU aren't the same. But belonging to any of them are treated the same way in Putin's foreign policy. Moldova won't join NATO I admit
I wonder what would happen is Russia launched something from Transnistria, giving Ukraine an excuse to go in. What would Moldova do? I suspect they’d just sit back at the opposite border of Transnistria and watch.
Thanks. This is the really big question to my mind. If Ukraine did act, what would Moldova do? It could go several ways. It might be happy to let Ukraine do its work. But this would lave the question of what happens next. There would have to be discussions about a hand over. Alternatively, as you say, it might decide that if Kyiv acts it will also join it. This would need to be coordinated. Then again, it might be genuinely opposed to a Ukrainian move, seeing this as a violation of its sovereignty that, if it doesn't oppose, could leave it open to attack by Russia (which would see Moldova as effectively colluding with Ukraine). I guess this all underlines the very real problems that Moldova faces.
Why is everyone so scared of Russia who first changed the external european borders since 1945 the West or Russia take a wild guess ?
I wonder if Moldova could do a deal with Ukraine and Transnistria to allow Ukraine to annex Transnistria, Given Ukrainians and Moldovas make up the majority of the population it might be more acceptable than staying with Moldova or going to Russia. However this would need to happen after the defeat of Russia to Ukraine in the war.
Great video James! Complicated topic really. I really hope that Romania will send it armed forces in Moldova, and by that push back Russian thinking of invasion as it would be a direct attack on NATO army.
You mentioned that Ukraine could invade Transnistria, but i think you stated the wrong reason. Ukraine is missing ammunition, and in Transnistria lies the biggest ammo storage in europe and it is compatable with ukrainian arms. Now whatever the reason may be, wouldn't it be a ukrainian invasion of Moldova? I also don't think that Ukraine has strenght to invade anything being that their army is barely capable of doing small counter attacks in small villages.
Thanks so much Nikola. Great point about the ammunition dump. But I wouldn't be so sure that Ukraine doesn't have the strength to make a move on Transnistria. The problem is that this would certainly be a diversion from where the troops are really needed. There are obviously all sorts of factors at play here. But I really don't think we are at that point yet. There's little sign that Russian forces are heading that way at the moment. But, as I said, I suspect that this could be an important potential situation to watch.
Phenomenal video. I agree and thanks.
Thank you very much indeed! By the way, do keep an eye out for my next video. I’ll be taking a look at another interesting possible case of unification.
commenting for algorithim, these videos need more views
Thank you very much indeed! :-)
I could imagine a scenario where Moldova decides to take advantage of the fact that Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and decides to retake Transistria by force.
I think if they were going to try this, it would have happened already. I suspect Moldova hasn't simply because it doesn't necessarily have much of a military to begin with and it probably wouldn't have the support of Western powers if it initiated conflict.
However, it has always been difficult to imagine a prosperous and secure future for Moldova in its current condition. Some kind of action in Moldova is practically inevitable, even if they had been "comfortable with the status quo."
I think that slowly Transnistria has been encouraged to trade with the EU and develop economic ties and interests with the West
I can't see Moldova trying it I could see Ukraine but that would mean Ukraine invading a country it all depends how far the Russians are on the battlefield from Transnistria as of now a peaceful settlement would probably be the best.
Moldova taking Transnistria is a no-go. Moldova has no army.
Half the country of Moldova is pro Russian, the Moldovans beside not being armed have no wish to rip there country apart.
Moldova doesn't have the military capabilities to take Tiraspol. It can barely defend itself without foreign intervention. Although hardly in any state for offensive operations, the Transnistrian army is more powerfull than everything Moldova can mobilise. Also don't forget that even if Russia will not be able to bring troops there, they can still use rockets to couse devastating attacks.
It's best to leave that strange land alone.
It all sounds very nice in theory, but we actually don't want the cost and trouble of taking over that corrupt pit.' Is this: A Romania's political class talking about Moldova? B. Moldova's political class talking about Transnistria? C: A and B?
Do you think Romania is in anyway more corrupt than any of its EU neighbours or that particular EU region in general?There are obvious problems that definitely have to be confronted in Romania but I'm starting to smell some obvious troll farm activity regarding all this Romanian corruption bashing .Can't decide if this particular troll farm has it's main office to the Est or somewhere North West of our border.Joint venture maybe?
@@yumbam5546 Your diagnostic skills are lamentable. Transparency International corruption perceptions index 2021: Romania 66/180; Hungary 73/180; Moldova 105/180; Ukraine 122/180; Russia 136/180; Rwanda 52/180; Chile 27/180. See a cluster there?
My workmates missus comes from Moldova, he's Romanian, so I asked him about this and what he knows from her. He said that she's worried about her family and friends back home and they're equally worried about what the Russians will do.
According to him, the Moldovans and the Transistrians actually don't like each other or trust each other very much so there's definitely a potential for something political to kick off there between the 2 people's and there being a another split in the region. What will happen? Who knows.....but Putin will be quite happy to increase tensions and exploit the issue. He's also said that the Moldovan armed forces are not capable of doing much to be honest so it wouldn't be capable of attacking anything more powerful than a boy scouts group.
Another Russian warship has started the special operation of creating an artificial reef, which would appear to make it less likely that Russia will capture Odessa and then occupy southern Ukraine all the way to Transnistria.
Wait until May 9th, when Russian Army gets reinforcements from a (maybe limited) public/civil mobilization in Russia proper. Things will change.
@@ElijsDima What will change? That sounds like a recipe for more cannon fodder being put in front of well trained and battle hardened Ukrainian forces. Badly trained, undisciplined, low morale and not so well equipped Russian troops have been dying in huge numbers. Yet here you are wanting more of the same.
You forgot to mention one scenario that you missed,what if Russia annexed the Odessa region,then Transnistria would form part of that region,this is the most likely scenario.
Lost opportunity to name the video Moscova or Moldova.
What about the Gagauzia peoples with their own autonomous regions, i think they would want a say in all this as i understand they are a Turkic people with learnings towards Moscow
Thanks. I made a video on Gagauzia: ruclips.net/video/KlYoVJEoRzM/видео.htmlsi=Yd24xJGGL_PgVocB
Ukraine should send a brigade there and clean up the territory.
This yet another legacy of Colonisation.
Russian are not “native” to Transnistria….but were settled there.
First by the Russian Empire….and later by the Soviets.
As Machiavelli wrote: if you want to conquer a country, you must live there.
These enclaves exist for one reason…..to destroy local demographic & political homogeneity.
Just like the similar enclaves like South Ossetia in Georgia.
Without these Enclaves….Moldova would already part of Romania
even so, the Russian colonization was different from the English. the Russians did not exterminate the indigenous people, as the British did with the redskins in America or in India, or in Africa, they did not take away slaves, etc. and the Russian Empire received the Transnistrian lands as a result of a fair war with the Ottoman Empire and liberated Bessarabia from the Turkish yoke. in the early years, it did not even levy taxes, it built infrastructure, railways, cities, and developed the economy in the region. in general, if you choose the type of "colonization", then I choose Russian.
I see the situation as @Ștefan Manea:
I belive quite the same. Moldavians just have to abandone Transnistria and to build his way (european of they want it) without them.
And..maybe is not a good ideea to speak about a union. Is better to speak about INTEGRATING it to UE & Schengen. I am romanian, exactly at the border of Rep. Moldova, currently workimg in NL. Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, doesn't matter what nation they are, no borders, all freedom. Is about vision and cooperation.
There will be something like peace konference of Versailles 1919 or Paris 1946, or even Vienna 1815 style in the future. Slovakia and Zakarpatska Ukraine to Viktor Orbán, Galicia and Volynia to Poland, Northern Bukovina, Besarabia and Snake Island to Romania and Left-bank Ukraine to Russia.
You can't claim to be part of a country just because half the population speak a extra language as well as the native. Its crazy this what's gone wrong with these people.
Yeah like claiming to be romanian
Moldova wants the reunification with the mother Romania. Transnistria doesn’t want Moldova. Therefore, a civil/peaceful divorce must happen. Moldova/Romania has to regain the control over Tighina/Bender and every inch on the right bank of Nistru. This must be the goal based on the current Russia /Ukraine war through means of peaceful negotiations. Moldova/Romania must not forget our brothers Moldovans/Romanians in Transnistria, but help and sustain them generously.
The federalisation of Moldova is nonsensical! Any veto power of Gagauzia or Transnistria would impact it's ability to join EU, NATO or an eventual reunification with Romania.
Thanks. But there are already federations within the EU. And there are many types of federal systems. In almost all cases, foreign policy remains a central government policy area without direct veto power from the federal units. A federal model need not be a block on EU membership.
If Moldova were to cut Transnistria loose, might this give Ukraine the impetus to attack the small contingent of Russian troops stationed there? Does Transnistria have its own army/militia? How might this affect the war in Ukraine as a whole? From a Ukrainian perspective, clearing the area of Russian troops could take pressure of their south-western border, and allow them to redeploy the troops stationed there to engage the main Russian forces in the east and south-east, however, if there is a significant Russian-backed militia, it may just be opening a huge can of worms.
If Transnistria were to find itself on its own, how might this affect international recognition, and how might it affect their attitude to Moscow?
Looking at a map, it certainly seems to make more sense for Transnistria to join Ukraine. The Western borders have some rivers which are natural borders. It already has a large contingent of Ukrainian and Russian speakers. It would free both Ukraine and Moldova from additional Russian threats from the territory. If Ukraine invaded Moldova, it would have additional bargaining power at peace negotiations. Russia has been weakened and may just let the territory go to help with negotiations. I believe they would much rather have Crimea, for example or even keep their naval base there.
What future for transnistria ?...let s put it differently : what future for the russian offspring of russian colonists who settled there after russia had taken that land from the ottomans in the 19th century ? Well...they have to accept to become fully moldovan without retro identitarian reactionnism or they have to leave their former colony...just as the French left Haiti or the Brits left India.
My family fled from Donetsk to Transnistria... neither one of those regions would have any issue with being a part of Russia. Most would prefer it. That census information is bullshit too. Finding someone who speaks something other than Russian in Transnistria is rare.
I’m a Moldovan living in Chisinau, and the fact that the war brought this issue to a higher priority is both good and bad. If the worst happens, my relatives and I will be under Russian bombings, and i hope this issue settles peacefully. However, knowing what Putin had done in Georgia and what he’s doing right now in Ukraine, I’m fearing the worst
What a world!
I hope Moldova does not undertake military action in Transnistria. That will not end well.
They may get a lot of help right now.
What do the ethnic Ukrainians in Transnistria think of the Ukraine war? Do they oppose Russia?
SLAVA UKRAINI AND SLAVA MOLDOVA!!!!!!!
Though I am totally against Putin and Russian expansionist mentality, I do actually feel like Transnistria should be an independent state, or Russian annexed state, but anyway, not part of Moldova. My only argument is that the vast majority of its inhabitants are russian speaking russophones, I dare to call them even russophiles. If they want it, they should go for it.
After the fall of the communist block in early 90s, Moldova has made tremendous, unimaginable progress towards democracy and EU. Of course, it still had Dodon and it's corruption scandals (see Plahotniuc), but the Moldovian population showed what they long for. Transnistria does nothing but delay the Moldovian ascension to the "normal world". I am not Moldovian, but Maia Sandu is a politician I wish I had in my country, and many other people would wish for someone like her. However, no matter how much the territorial integrity matters in their constitution, Moldovians should organise a referendum in Transnistria for its independence. Why have 2 "sad countries" when you can have "2 happy ones"?
Anyway, thanks prof, kudos for video!
I think Ukraine has a good justification to attack the Russian forces inside Transnistria to secure its back if it can show there is a serious (imminent?) threat of them invading Ukraine from the west.
Technically, they would be violating Moldovan territory in doing so, so if they got Maia Sandu's permission for military access, they should be fine in international law. However, it could be seen as a violation of Moldova's constitutionally enshrined neutrality. Moreover, if she says this publicly or it will leak out, then Russia may declare war or "special military operation" on Moldova as well, and she really doesn't want that.
A more likely scenario seems to me that Ukraine attacks unilaterally without permission, saying clearly it seeks to respect Moldova's neutrality but must do it out of self-defence. Maia will then make some sort of public statement mildly condemning the violation of Moldovan territory, while practically tolerating it. The West will express concerns but tolerate it as well, and then the Ukrainians can go and chase the Russian Army out of Transnistria and end that pseudo-state.
Lol, this will mean a war between Ukraine and Moldova, or the official recognition of Transnistria as a separate state.
The ideal solution is to let people of occupied areas live where they want to live. While Putin's Russia is attacking Ukraine then Transnistria best option is independence. If there is a section that is Romanian desiring that should go with Moldova. A section that is Ukrainian desiring should go with Ukraine and yhe section that is Russian desiring should remain independent until the end of the Putin-,Ukrainian War then if go with Russia. The big question is what should happen to the Transnistrian mercenaries that fought with Russia. They should be barred from ever returning to Transnistria.
Let the "Russians " migrate to Kaliningrad.
Half of Moldova is still in Romania. 🇦🇩🇷🇴
After Ukraine… what else will Russia take over ?
Call yourself a proffesor a ?😂
Ill teach you real history:
Do you know that 3 counties from south of Bessarabia was and still are private property for more then 100 years ? Same with central part of Bessarabia where the Capital is located and same with north part of Bessarabia. Do you know who has made the "Small Unification under Cuza" ? You dont know whats a land lord or nobility and what power they had at that time in Romania and Bassarabia because they had political office in both countries in same time. You dont know what power they had in other countries like in West and what lobby they made. What you say is reflected in your actual perception of facts (cheap politics that everyone think they know about it because everyone talks about it), not sacrifices made by land lords and nobles who has created the facto unification and what obligation had the new State to this hereditary selected people.
You know the role of Tsarist Empired in Crimea War or in Bessarabia and the 1877-1878 Independence wars that was in East Europe and Balkan Peninsula ?
You pass so quick from one period of time to other like is not important.
Moldavian Republic by it self, was created not by "local leaders" schooled in Petrograd by soviets that nobody recognised in 1918, but was created by coup d'etet that shocked entire Europe and after by deportation and crimes in peace time and war time made by Moldavia, thats why Unification between Romania and so called Democratic Republic of Moldavia wasnt fully recognise from 1918 till 1935 or 1940.
Better read American Federal Stimson Doctrine till you call yourself proffesor and tell this kids a fake idea about what is happening. All is related to history and what you pretend you teach, is not history at all, just a personal view under a history umbrella with the prefix "prof".
Putin said at some point: violation of International Law that is the base of UN, Human Rights and Peace, will bring the hell on this Planet. But nobody has understand a thing and everyone got manipulated by own goverment and manipulative people who pretend that know everything and in special international history.
Marxim was good like any other doctrine.
Problem was rised when was put in practice and from there all crimes has arised.
You cant tell me that guns kills people. People kill people useing guns.
Crimes made by Moldova starting from 1918 till 1950, was made useing the pretext that is USSR fault but this info is fake and nobody will show in public the truth that is hiden in national archives. Is more easy to blame other side then yourself for own crimes just to get rich and get in power. Thats why Democratic Republic of Moldova from 1917 or 1918 had a short live (only few months of independence), moldavians wanted the money and power, not the unification with Romania. But when Democratic Republic of Moldavia was between white russians (nobility), red russians and local crime gangs, so called "local leaders" called for Unification to dont be killed...but they was still executed by USSR and white russians for their actions.
Same story with Transnistria but this time USSR and actual Rusia act like a wachdog to International Law, Treaties, Conventions and so on. Are strange actual facts when most of the people on this planet has think that USA is a wachdog and police enforcer of International Laws and Human Rights....reality who seems is not so after all.
Other think to mention: moldavia by state and moldavians by culture or etnicity, they dont have history and are not teach history. All their history start from USSR blameing USSR and thats it. No history about Crimea war and why happend, no history before Tsarist time and influence in the region. Moldavians are nomands and you lose them in details if you aske them how they have appear between Prut and Nistru rivers. Is so simple.
Now i have seen you are from UK and you forgot to pay attention to nobility details from Moldavia history.
Shame of you "proffesor". PhD a ? 😂
moldova has no port to supply their country direct from black sea access, difficult way because they cant freely trade export & import, offcourse some things like hungary now maybbe happen on this country
i know it's crazy things that i'm thinks but this my thinks all about possibility of this
"are they possibility if Odessa was took russia direct to transnistria/transdenister and for south area will be give to moldova goverment for being their tighting partnership russia & moldova (for reason making port, making access to balck sea owned by moldovan) , in other hand to punish & isolate ukraine because they president want or most people in ukraine who want to joint NATO" ??
Kinda spicy that you called Transnistria as a "criminal statelet". Ruski bots are gonna get sour for those.
It should probably be interpreted in conjunction with the newspaper article/headline shown simultaneously on screen. Some commenters also seem to hint at problems of this nature occurring in the region.
万岁 万万岁 国民党
@@yohaneschristianp Lol No. 國民黨太愛了習 (i.e. Winnie the Pooh) 與共黨
So no. 民主進步黨萬歲！蔡總統加油！💪 中華民國萬萬歲！🇹🇼
1.500 Russian troops ? Romanian sources speak about 10.000-15.000, but I guess they're just typical journalists... hope so at least.
Three new nations to emerge emerge from the war.
I am calling for the following three nations to become independent of Russia and form their own sovereign nations.
Transnistrian, Crimea and Rostov-on-Don could be and should become their own nations, independent of Russia. Independence means each nation would be recognized by its own flag, it's own currency, national anthem and traditions developed based on each citizen making a choice based on national pride. The three countries mentioned above when they become independent of Russia would have their own voice on the international stage, at the Olympics and more importantly, borders.
Borders that the peoples of the Earth would see each nation as a sovereign peoples of the world.
In practice, for many years these would be functionally similar to Belarus - independent on paper, a russian region in fact. But, maybe in terms of resolving the conflict, this would be a way out.
However, if this happens, then Russia will try to create similar "breakaway" regions in all post-soviet independent countries (baltics etc.).
offtopic: do you want to make a video (or a text) about Irish unification and a future border poll considering the last election in Northern Ireland? I know much more about Transnistria than about Ulster, unfortunately. Is Ulster Independence a real third alternative to the UK and United Ireland?
Now in 2023, war situation in Ukraine has evolved from a year ago. The danger of Russia linking-up with Transnistria territorially is receding. Ukraine may want to coordinate with Moldova to squeeze Russia military out of Transnistria.
Funny thing about "transnistrians" and "gagauz" and "russians" in Moldova is that many of them have romanian citizenship and passports. Romania can save them anytime. Hopefully very soon.
5:43 criminal statelet???
I thought you were unbiased
There is a mountain of evidence that it has been involved in organised crime. This is nothing new or particularly controversial.
Well i think the issue that many people do not bring to mention is that transnistria or pridnestrovia was never historically apart of romania or moldova. It was only added to the moldovan SSR.
Moreover, there is the autonomous region in moldova of gagauzia who have the right to secede if any extreme measure is taken such as joining the EU.
Then there is the reality that Moldovans as a whole are split as to whether they want to be closer with russia or the EU.
But ultimately, russia has no intentions of invading or annexing Moldova as Moldova has no intentions in invading or annexing pridnestrovia. The situation in ukraine is unique because of the large russian speaking population and the close yet complex ties russia and ukraine had historically.
Together Moldova and Ukraine need to take it.
"areas Russia is seizing".......absurd bias.
let's just ignore the democratic vote of the Crimean parliament in Simferopol for separation from Kiev, and the DPR and LPR declarations of independence following the 2014 coup.
typical Guardian reader that fails to see democratic, popular movements against authoritarian Kiev.
Russia already has a military base in the Country of Transistria. Which is mostly Russian, has its own currency, and its own goverment and military.