Why do teams win the toss and bowl in T20? |
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- Опубликовано: 27 июн 2024
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Written by Varun Alvakonda & Jarrod Kimber
In T20 cricket, captains seem to be obsessed with winning the toss and bowling first. Why is that the case though? What advantages or disadvantages does that pose? Let's analyze that and much more in this video.
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I think you're missing something here. If I got a 1% edge by bowling first, I would do it 100% of the time, now wouldn't I?
Now this edge is not as clear when it comes to bowling first and that's why teams sometimes choose to bat first.
His point is that if you predecide that you are gonna bat first, you can prepare accordingly (players will used to it) and also it is very likely that you will be put in that position since you expect that even if the other team wins the toss, they will bowl and you get what you wanted. In the long run, when players and staff settle in, that 6% diff might not be there
@jubinjohnind ur absolutely correct,both neednot to be near same,if we exaggerate a liitle bit i think every body gonna understand,if thers 70 percent chance that batting first team will win the game,every toss winner will choose the same ,that is batting first,so distrubution becomes near 100 percent choice of batting first.
and also we r neglecting many important factors like strength of team and their opposition,bcs it doesnt matter who wins the toss if theres significant diffrce bte the quality of the team and homeground advantage
It's the same reason why in test cricket teams bat first,because conditions in t20 cricket are batter friendly which means that batters can control the game in the second innings ,whereas when teams bowl in the second because of batter friendly conditions,ballers don't have a lot of control,which means batters can cruise , similarly in a test matches it's the opposite
This particular video sums up why our team India never won major tournaments, in the 2013-2022 period, just unloading all stuff on Kohli and Rohit. We still dont have a well settled pace/spin attack. Australia is known for their big 3 - Starc,Hazlewood,Cummins..... and spin was handled by Maxi/Zampa. We never had a concentrated spin attack....sometimes it was Kuldeep, sometimes Jadeja, taking in whichever pacer or spinner performed domestically, but didnt give enough time to settle in the international level......and we never had a solid pace/spin core except Bumrah. That is why our team never won trophies. This WC was the exception, as we saw a pace attack of Arshdeep/Bumrah and the major core was the spin attack. We could never consolidate our bowling, it never had an identity, because the Indian team's identity was always the top order batting attack.
Maybe this is why we won this WC, because other teams were caught off-guard by our middle order batting improvement after they took the wickets of Kohli/Rohit and thought the Indian batting is gone.....
Bowling first only works when your team has really great batsmen who can bat in any condition, can handle the pressure & play against any kind of bowler. But English team can't even play spinners and still they chose bowling. That too against our team which had 3 quality spinners on that turning track.
2016-2017 ind T20 model is just win the toss chase, keep the other team to a par score and let Kohli chase it down.
Love you Jarrod!
Our Oasis in the desert of valuable cricket analysis ❤️
amazinf research. I love listening to statistical analysis like this. thank you Jarrod .
It seems very strange to me that Jarrod is assuming there should be a correlation between how often the team bowling first wins and how often teams win bowling first. To take it to the extreme: if we didn't actually play the game, and we just flipped a 51/49 coin where the team bowling first won 51% of the time, then 100% of the teams would choose to bowl first.
Obviously conditions vary, and if teams only win bowling first 53% of the time then there will probably be pitches and weather conditions where teams should indeed bat first. But I don't understand why the two percentages should align.
Also I don't really see the point of the last graph of win % by team batting first. Of course India and England win a lot, they're really good. And when it comes to smaller teams, their win percentage is going to be more a factor of the teams they play than their strategy. It would have been much more interesting to me to see the difference between each team's win % batting first and their win% batting second.
I'm willing to be convinced of this theory, but I thought the stats here were really really weak by Jarrod's standard
Man i love your videos 💯. Superb content just gold stuff
I think the numbers are more skewed in knockout games at least for the T20 World Cup. In 8 editions so far (not including 2024):
Finals: 2 wins for Team batting first; 6 wins for Team bowling first (25% success for batting first)
Semi-Finals: 5 wins for team batting first; 11 wins for team bowling first (31% success for batting first)
That's because in knockouts the team batting first almost always bat too conservatively. If you bat first more often you're far less likely to make that mistake.
Love these kind of analyses
There is one more thing the generally captains are batsmen
Maybe they have more believe in their batting ???
For the team winning percentages, I think it would be useful to see the difference in winning percentage between batting first and bowling first. India might have a high win percentage when batting first, but they also have a high win percentage when bowling first. So looking at just one of those doesn't give a full picture of what the advantage is.
I would like to see the same stats teamwise. How well they perform after winning the toss and choosing to bowl first.
India and England win a high percentage of games regardless of when they bat. It would be interesting to overlay win percentages when batting first and second on the same chart. I think we would see that the good teams, who win higher than 50% of their games batting first, actually win even more frequently when they bat second.
Great video. But is correlation really the causation in this case?
I think this has more to do with how t20 games are usually played at night so dew is a factor hence teams bowl first hoping dew to help them when they chase.
Good analyses but there's a bit of oversight: you talked about winning % being more than or less than 50% yet the graphs only had either 40% or 60% marks. I reckon it would've been better suited to go with 50%, 25%, and 75% for the viewers watching.
can i know from where you get these data sets and which app u use to process them?
these statistics makes makes sense, if u get percent advantage u will choose bowling first 100 percent of the time, teams usually prefer chasing but if they choose to bat first that means the pitch heavily favours batting first....... so its just common sense
Truth is even a tiny expected / perceived advantage , let’s say 53% V/s 47% is enough for teams to go extreme with their decision making. Why would ANYONE leave even a 6% of Value on the table.
The logic that you try to give will make a team end up like India where they win most of the matches everywhere except in the knockout matches for the finals. What if the team chooses to bat almost all the time, gets better at it also..but in a crucial match they lose the toss and are set to chase on tricky wicket
Your Book isn't available in amazon India
Hi Jarod, you can compare their win% batting first with their overall win% so we can know if they have an advantage. Like India and winning 60% batting first is more but is it above their overall win%
but champions bat first. india batted first against Australia England and South Africa.
I think England stopped winning toss and batting first for 5 straight years after 2016 because West Indies beat them in the World Cup batting second and that game was a heartbreaker for England
They think chasing is a cake walk
Loving the whiteboard portions
What if it's survive bias.
Like team choosing batting first when they are sure they will win.
And Batting second in when they are not that sure, knowing it's tested proven area.
Runs on board matter more
81% makes no sense. since if ur team is good batting first, your opponents will start batting first when they win toss.
One important thing that Jarrod is missing is that at knock out games in t20 world cups teams have always won batting second.
The recent win for india batting first was the first time since 2014 a team won a knockout game batting first in world cups!
It happened becuz of pitch. On batting friendly pitches and becuz of due factor chasing is the best option
The funny part is that India won the toss and chose to bat. Let's see if it pays off.
It nearly became our unfounding, man.....but well Lady Luck smiled on us at last. A bit emotional for the Proteas tho.
I always think india are better at chasing ,just because of chase master but since he is not coming in 3.
I m glad they choose to bat first.
5 years of England winning the toss & bowling first WOW. I wonder how it varies between formats for each nation
You have quality content but it's almost impossible to hear you clearly without headphones or on a TV, please fix your mic so we could hear clearly, its very muffled
I've got an answer to why teams choose to bowl first more often, even when the results are nearly fifty-fifty. As your metric says win% when bat first is under 50. There 6-7% more chance for you to win if you bowled first. So, if you win the toss, you're going to choose the favorable choice, aren't you?
Brave. Statistics of small sample sizes
Did you look at the other way ? OK, I win 53% batting first . How much am I winning bowling first ? If that is 60%, I am going to decide to bowl first every time.
Try using granger causality test 😂
The conclusion: Win bat, toss first!
teams often choose to bowl first against india because they're afraid chasemaster kohli might come back in form.
T20 bowl first
Test bat first
I wish Afghanistan had won the semi vs south africa... Would have been the greatest minnow story of all time..
They are not minnows anymore...they keep doing well in all icc tournaments
India Bat first in almost all the T20 World Cup and won all the games
India is batting 1st today
Petition to use the whiteboard in every video
India to Srilanka and Pakistan k sath bhi final haar Chuka hai.. ab to South Africa Ki strong team hai.. ham pakka choke karenge
Stop it Jarrod. You re putting so many analysts out of business by bringing these videos to us for free!!!