I think your pragmatic and thorough analysis is probably a very good gauge of what the NVDA picture could be in the next 2-3 years. But I noticed something similar happen with AAPL 15 years ago, prior to the launch of the iPhone: analysts were basing thesis of future growth on demand for their computers and the very popular iPod, but they did not (actually simply could not -- no fault to them) factor the iPhone into their projections. I think there is a strong possibility we're seeing the same thing with NVDA and AI. Future growth is based on the current demand picture based on data centers and LLM. But it's highly likely that entirely new and unforeseen demand will be created -- it's a very bullish projection based on nothing but historical antecedent, I know, but still, probably something to consider. Just my two cents!
Bingo, this is what a valuation cannot do, have enough imagination to have the humility to understand that no model can project a market that is just being born or that does not exist at the moment Ultimately, investment is about believing in a company's business and its leadership, in order to share in the benefits over time The price that Nvidia has today is very demanding and you have to have a lot of conviction to buy at this level or even to maintain As Brian demonstrates in his valuation
Exactly. Question should be asked is why hyperscalars spending all this money to train AI models. Answer to that is they see huge profits in future from AI applications they are going to provide. When that happens inference cost going to vastly outpace training costs that consumer going to pay for. And where the inference going to happen? In NVDA chips. So this is just the first inning of NVDA growth. It will easily be 10 trillion dollar company not far in the future.
Thanks Brain for another great video. Can you do a video along the lines of biggest surprises or best earnings results ? Maybe summarising the earnings season and biggest winners e.g SE
Optionality, innovation and top management makes me believe Nvidia of 10 years from now with still be the leader and creator of new business products and markets and it makes a good bet today.
@@WhiteMochatoThey almost have never let a product completely fail. If it has issues - they fix it, these are normal things that happen in such intricate projects. Every big company have had issues every now and then with product launches, so this is nothing new. I’m hoping there is some freakout selling so we can buy more stock at a discount. Their moat is still strong, and their product is second to none. And I say this as someone who couldn’t care less about Nvidia.
@@matrixistNvidia has the earnings and the future earnings. In 2000 tech stocks were overvalued with no earnings just hype. Nvidia have earnings and future earnings in the bag. Price fell after amazing results. Yesterday Nvidia went from 146 to 141 in pre Market then up to 148 then as Market opened it touched 152 then dropped down to 142. Closing around 146 so very volatile. But it will head up to 160 short term. In a years time it will be 200-314
Thanks for this video! I've been watching yours and Feroldi's videos for a while and they've evolved so well. I especially like last few minutes of each video when you normalize the free cash flow to look at projected revenue growth - this is very helpful.
@@ssing7113 So, are Nvidia engineers helping out TSMC without changing the design Nvidia sent to TSMC? Is production constrained by TSMC's output (because Blackwell isn't just the things TSMC make)? I'm just hoping to learn here.
Great video. Thanks for speaking more slowly. I am watching to see what other companies DO with AI. Will we see margins improve at companies implementing AI? Look at the customers raving about operational results after using Palantir. If that grows and spreads NVDA will continue to have demand outstripping supply. Don’t predict, watch. Hard to miss the at Meta and effectiveness of ad spend post AI. If they can survive the political environment they could have a huge impact. Watch and believe the numbers.
The stock price already has a lot of growth priced in it. As this growth paces down, the P/E ratio will get back in line with that of other competitors. It should be noted though that the P/E ratio of NVDA, at 68, looks very good compared to AMD with 123, given that AMD's AI offering is way weaker than NVDA which is offering a whole ecosystem with software like CUDA and its various flavors, as well as Jetson of embedded processors.
Your ability to understand the information you consume and portray that information over simply, is unmatched!
I think your pragmatic and thorough analysis is probably a very good gauge of what the NVDA picture could be in the next 2-3 years. But I noticed something similar happen with AAPL 15 years ago, prior to the launch of the iPhone: analysts were basing thesis of future growth on demand for their computers and the very popular iPod, but they did not (actually simply could not -- no fault to them) factor the iPhone into their projections. I think there is a strong possibility we're seeing the same thing with NVDA and AI. Future growth is based on the current demand picture based on data centers and LLM. But it's highly likely that entirely new and unforeseen demand will be created -- it's a very bullish projection based on nothing but historical antecedent, I know, but still, probably something to consider. Just my two cents!
Bingo, this is what a valuation cannot do, have enough imagination to have the humility to understand that no model can project a market that is just being born or that does not exist at the moment
Ultimately, investment is about believing in a company's business and its leadership, in order to share in the benefits over time
The price that Nvidia has today is very demanding and you have to have a lot of conviction to buy at this level or even to maintain
As Brian demonstrates in his valuation
Exactly. Question should be asked is why hyperscalars spending all this money to train AI models. Answer to that is they see huge profits in future from AI applications they are going to provide. When that happens inference cost going to vastly outpace training costs that consumer going to pay for. And where the inference going to happen? In NVDA chips. So this is just the first inning of NVDA growth. It will easily be 10 trillion dollar company not far in the future.
Thanks Brain for another great video. Can you do a video along the lines of biggest surprises or best earnings results ? Maybe summarising the earnings season and biggest winners e.g SE
where's your sea limited video?!?!?
Optionality, innovation and top management makes me believe Nvidia of 10 years from now with still be the leader and creator of new business products and markets and it makes a good bet today.
If blackwell fails because there is a technical problem like temperature, it's over ...
@@WhiteMochatoThey almost have never let a product completely fail. If it has issues - they fix it, these are normal things that happen in such intricate projects. Every big company have had issues every now and then with product launches, so this is nothing new.
I’m hoping there is some freakout selling so we can buy more stock at a discount. Their moat is still strong, and their product is second to none. And I say this as someone who couldn’t care less about Nvidia.
The same was true with AMZN in 2000, but they still fell by 90%. This will likely happen with nvda.
@ and if you bought and held $AMZN in 2000 to today, you would be very rich and happy!
@@matrixistNvidia has the earnings and the future earnings. In 2000 tech stocks were overvalued with no earnings just hype. Nvidia have earnings and future earnings in the bag. Price fell after amazing results. Yesterday Nvidia went from 146 to 141 in pre Market then up to 148 then as Market opened it touched 152 then dropped down to 142. Closing around 146 so very volatile. But it will head up to 160 short term. In a years time it will be 200-314
Could you do an update on snow earnings love your vids❄️
Thanks for the good video!
Great video😊
Still room to grow until we see real competition. I mean those numbers are mind blowing 🤯
Please do Microsoft next time!
Thanks for this video! I've been watching yours and Feroldi's videos for a while and they've evolved so well. I especially like last few minutes of each video when you normalize the free cash flow to look at projected revenue growth - this is very helpful.
I think brand name will get more important for valuation
Brian, could you prepare a post-earnings video for SNOW? Thank you.
How can Nvidia be working night and day to meet demand for Blackwell when they're fabless?
TSMC is in Taiwan. They operates when USA is at night. Nvidia may talk to TSMC engineers during TSMC working hours.
Because the company doesn’t run with a ton of engineers picking their noses. They are working like crazy because their stock options ….
@@ssing7113 So, are Nvidia engineers helping out TSMC without changing the design Nvidia sent to TSMC? Is production constrained by TSMC's output (because Blackwell isn't just the things TSMC make)? I'm just hoping to learn here.
Top Video! Would love to see a Sea ltd video after the good earnings.
Yes. Top is for almost everything.
Great video. Thanks for speaking more slowly. I am watching to see what other companies DO with AI. Will we see margins improve at companies implementing AI? Look at the customers raving about operational results after using Palantir. If that grows and spreads NVDA will continue to have demand outstripping supply. Don’t predict, watch.
Hard to miss the at Meta and effectiveness of ad spend post AI. If they can survive the political environment they could have a huge impact. Watch and believe the numbers.
Yes and yes
The stock price already has a lot of growth priced in it. As this growth paces down, the P/E ratio will get back in line with that of other competitors. It should be noted though that the P/E ratio of NVDA, at 68, looks very good compared to AMD with 123, given that AMD's AI offering is way weaker than NVDA which is offering a whole ecosystem with software like CUDA and its various flavors, as well as Jetson of embedded processors.
Thanks Brian. No snowflake video?
No brainer sell Nvidia and buy SMCI to make at the 2X
Please redo $CART
I’d say Toyota or Nike offers more reward to risk at the moment.