Somebody in the Thinking Poker community coined the term "Value panic" for the river donk when they get there. It seems quite apt, and Marc is correct that when they check the river it's the third and final nail in the coffin of their range. Over the years I've gotten pretty good about folding all but the near-nuts to value-panic donks. But I never took it to the next step to drop the big boi B200 bluff. Even after they'd all but given me a signed affidavit that they had no very strong hands left. That is changing, starting now.
I think a key thing here that many people are so bad at that Marc talks about, is how poorly people play out of position. from out of position, both as the aggressor and as the caller, on many nut changing cards (flushes/straights etc.), at equilibrium, your are supposed to play a ton of your range as a check/block bet sizing, in order to stay balanced. However, most people at low stakes are just incredibly unbalanced, ie, when they make a flush, they just always, always, always bet large. They are never checking or block betting small. Understanding those nut changing cards and understanding peoples unbalanced bet sizing can allow you to play extremely exploitative poker.
Hey Marc, question: what bet sizing do you recommend using when donk betting the river after getting a strong value hand? Or, how do you determine what size to go for?
Extremely tempted to apply for the boot camp….I love this content. The issue is I play mainly in the online ClubGG clubs because I don’t have to pay rake, (friends with a club owner and get all my rake back, it’s a printing press)…do you think it would translate to soft online games, or is it just not a good fit? Either way, love the content, tremendously useful for when I do play live cash. I just can’t convince myself to pay rake when I don’t have to
Unless I'm missing the point of the example at 7 minutes you are sort of just making the solver give the answer you want. You set up two betsizes and solve for equil. Then you make the opponent overfold to one of the sizes and underfold to the other size. Then you run the ev and obviously its going to always bluff as the overfolding size and always value bet as the underfolding size. I dont think it has much to do with the opponents range going into this spot right?
So if what you are saying about the donk bet in low stakes is true, then would that be a good bluff play against a reg, especially if you are perceived as a fish, or if you are new to the table?
Even though your strategy of betting small on turns to define villains range is very useful, do you not miss a lot of value with strong value hands that want to triple for a big size? Love ur content btw
Basically, in which scenarios would you not suggest this small turn bet? when opponents are sticky anyways and u have a set, I imagine u want to start overbetting turn already? Or when people are very raisehappy versus small sizes since they smell weakness
Hey Marc, are there plans for a boot camp that’s catering to euro players (playing in Europe) in the future? Rake is a huge (and costly) factor here as well as subtle differences in population playstyle so I’m not sure if the boot camp is suited for me at this time.
on your donk bet river flush example say mr donkey bets have pot, but you have AsQc, what would be the minimum bet size u could make to get him to fold if Large overbet is not an option?
Just played 15 hours of 1-3 at the Venetian last weekend. I played this way and ended up +$300 for the trip. Thanks for the videos! One thing I saw was A LOT of limp/calling to my $12 open. Any suggestions for playing against 4 callers to my open raises? I heard you in my head saying “bet small so they call with their week s-t, and raise their weak s-t.”, but I got the same 4 callers to the 1/2 pot bets.
I get the downsizing of nut hands but won't overbetting with your nut hands more often make your opponents think you have it more often and allow you to bluff more though ?
we will still be offering a membership, but only for those who have completed our bootcamp or (coming soon) 7 day crash course. want to keep the community super strong.
When you show the A8s of the IP player in the donking section. Why does it show that is the uber NUTs is Checking IP at some frequency? Is this an indicator of a not fully processed part of the game tree?
What do you think about affirmations to help with mental game? Even things like saying "I run good" just to make us more positive if needed ,whether thats objective or not.
That doesn't work. I have a very positive mindset and I always talk about running good but that's just it it needs to actually be your mindset you need to believe it you can't just lie out into the universe and have it come back to you.
@@Stockhandle123 ahh, but you do have to believe it,thats assumed by me. And you can since you cant tell long term how you run for example so it can be beleived. and if you can believe then it may be helpful i think.
@@IvanS-n5f to be honest I think I just genuinely run really good. Both in life and in poker. I would really be curious how someone who doesn't run good is able to convince themselves that they do to give these positive affirmations.
@@Stockhandle123 well, you start from now and so you have no run good or bad and then you realize if its long horizon you cant tell so yes they can. But maybe other affirmations like im calm etc are better ...or not..im questioning if its good...
Yes. So like my local 1/2... Players just underbluff so much it's very easy to know what they have and act accordingly. It's why I just farm my local casino for 10BB and hour at the weekends as a side hustle playing nutted hands only.
Maybe it's time for a video on playing defense? I know with your strategy, you are rarely the preflop caller but sometimes it does happen like when we call a 3bet, when we call vs a reg, or when we defend the big blind. Great tips though, dealing with that donk river line that people pull, solution is to just fold!
I'M BACK...WE DID IT...OMG WE MISSED U SO MUCH...OMG BLESS U ! ! OMG U BIG LARGE BOY ! LARRY!!! HAPPY BIRTHDAY!! ITS LARRYS LUNCHTIME LENTILS ARE SOMETHING ! ! ! 15" POKER HAAAAARRRRDDD ♠️ ♠️ ♠️
There are a lot of assumptions being made about villein’s tendencies here. I’ve seen fish call small bets with huge combo draws and flushed etc… often.
Holy bananas ,Fedor and bryn just got crushed at the final 4 tableat the Triton $150k by two recreationals!!!!vlad and ossi Even chidwick, dan smith and Sam Greenwoodwas in the FT!!
Nice video as usual. I don't understand the reason why you bet small on those turns. Wouldn't be better to just check back (because we are ip) and fold/bluffcatch when they donk river? Also doesn't that bet runs the risk of getting bluff raised (we will fold ) from a draw/pair+draw? I am not saying it is not a good bet because it's exploitable. I am saying I don't understand the exploitative reasons of that bet.
Tip . . . The majority of low stakes players . . . . will NEVER check raise bluff . . . like . . ever. Check raise are almost always exclusively the nuts. When there is an inbalance on one side of the teeter totter , > it creates ANOTHER inbalance on the other side
The reason a lot of live pros, especially crushers from 20-30 years ago are losing players online. Is they picked up exploitative habits from playing against mostly fish and continued to play the same way. Not realizing that its not sound theory, and its going to get you crushed when you play against good observant players.
Somebody in the Thinking Poker community coined the term "Value panic" for the river donk when they get there. It seems quite apt, and Marc is correct that when they check the river it's the third and final nail in the coffin of their range. Over the years I've gotten pretty good about folding all but the near-nuts to value-panic donks. But I never took it to the next step to drop the big boi B200 bluff. Even after they'd all but given me a signed affidavit that they had no very strong hands left. That is changing, starting now.
![Jack Harlow - Hello Miss Johnson [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Q86_nlRoIGw/mqdefault.jpg)
My live win rate has become horrible because every time i hit a set i now say ‘look at that sweet baby there’.
🥰🥰
Hahaha what is a set? My pocket pairs never improve
you need to balance that
@@JeffreyHaefnerbro, feel you. My low-mid pocket pairs are chalked af lol
@@bobsburgers8885 Heh - need to start saying it on some blanks.
This is one of the best poker strategy videos I've ever seen. Extremely well laid out and so easy to understand.
🥰🥰🥰
Very good video. May we know what solver you used for analysis?
This is the best 15 minute live poker strat video on youtube.
omg bles u
Somebody in the Thinking Poker community coined the term "Value panic" for the river donk when they get there. It seems quite apt, and Marc is correct that when they check the river it's the third and final nail in the coffin of their range.
Over the years I've gotten pretty good about folding all but the near-nuts to value-panic donks. But I never took it to the next step to drop the big boi B200 bluff. Even after they'd all but given me a signed affidavit that they had no very strong hands left.
That is changing, starting now.
I think a key thing here that many people are so bad at that Marc talks about, is how poorly people play out of position. from out of position, both as the aggressor and as the caller, on many nut changing cards (flushes/straights etc.), at equilibrium, your are supposed to play a ton of your range as a check/block bet sizing, in order to stay balanced. However, most people at low stakes are just incredibly unbalanced, ie, when they make a flush, they just always, always, always bet large. They are never checking or block betting small. Understanding those nut changing cards and understanding peoples unbalanced bet sizing can allow you to play extremely exploitative poker.
Hey Marc, question: what bet sizing do you recommend using when donk betting the river after getting a strong value hand? Or, how do you determine what size to go for?
what size will the range you’re targeting call?
@@hungryhorsepokerDon't let Carrot Corner see this reply lol. He always goes mental when his students utter that phrase.
Extremely tempted to apply for the boot camp….I love this content.
The issue is I play mainly in the online ClubGG clubs because I don’t have to pay rake, (friends with a club owner and get all my rake back, it’s a printing press)…do you think it would translate to soft online games, or is it just not a good fit?
Either way, love the content, tremendously useful for when I do play live cash. I just can’t convince myself to pay rake when I don’t have to
if you’re playing at least $2/4, you’ll get tremendous value
The great and powerful Marc. Great player, and a very handsome boi.
omg ty
Unless I'm missing the point of the example at 7 minutes you are sort of just making the solver give the answer you want. You set up two betsizes and solve for equil. Then you make the opponent overfold to one of the sizes and underfold to the other size. Then you run the ev and obviously its going to always bluff as the overfolding size and always value bet as the underfolding size. I dont think it has much to do with the opponents range going into this spot right?
So if what you are saying about the donk bet in low stakes is true, then would that be a good bluff play against a reg, especially if you are perceived as a fish, or if you are new to the table?
Thank you for the explanation at 15:30 I've been wondering if you would include some examples of using the 2x size for value.
Even though your strategy of betting small on turns to define villains range is very useful, do you not miss a lot of value with strong value hands that want to triple for a big size? Love ur content btw
Basically, in which scenarios would you not suggest this small turn bet? when opponents are sticky anyways and u have a set, I imagine u want to start overbetting turn already? Or when people are very raisehappy versus small sizes since they smell weakness
Hey Marc, are there plans for a boot camp that’s catering to euro players (playing in Europe) in the future?
Rake is a huge (and costly) factor here as well as subtle differences in population playstyle so I’m not sure if the boot camp is suited for me at this time.
hey - we’ve had players from netherlands, belgium, england and portugal. as well as australia and hong kong outside europe/us.
New Video - LETS GO Brother!!
omg we did it
Just wanted to say i really like your content. You explain things well. New sub here. Take care brother ♠️
🥰🥰
Man, such an awesome vid again. Absolutely mindblowing to see that villain donking 33% of flushes causes us to fold 86% of our range 👀
on your donk bet river flush example say mr donkey bets have pot, but you have AsQc, what would be the minimum bet size u could make to get him to fold if Large overbet is not an option?
Just played 15 hours of 1-3 at the Venetian last weekend. I played this way and ended up +$300 for the trip. Thanks for the videos! One thing I saw was A LOT of limp/calling to my $12 open. Any suggestions for playing against 4 callers to my open raises? I heard you in my head saying “bet small so they call with their week s-t, and raise their weak s-t.”, but I got the same 4 callers to the 1/2 pot bets.
open much bigger
What program do you use?
I get the downsizing of nut hands but won't overbetting with your nut hands more often make your opponents think you have it more often and allow you to bluff more though ?
Did Berkey talk you out of a HH subscription model? Been looking forward to it...
we will still be offering a membership, but only for those who have completed our bootcamp or (coming soon) 7 day crash course. want to keep the community super strong.
When you show the A8s of the IP player in the donking section. Why does it show that is the uber NUTs is Checking IP at some frequency? Is this an indicator of a not fully processed part of the game tree?
What do you think about affirmations to help with mental game? Even things like saying "I run good" just to make us more positive if needed ,whether thats objective or not.
That doesn't work. I have a very positive mindset and I always talk about running good but that's just it it needs to actually be your mindset you need to believe it you can't just lie out into the universe and have it come back to you.
@@Stockhandle123 ahh, but you do have to believe it,thats assumed by me. And you can since you cant tell long term how you run for example so it can be beleived. and if you can believe then it may be helpful i think.
@@IvanS-n5f to be honest I think I just genuinely run really good. Both in life and in poker. I would really be curious how someone who doesn't run good is able to convince themselves that they do to give these positive affirmations.
smoochies
@@Stockhandle123 well, you start from now and so you have no run good or bad and then you realize if its long horizon you cant tell so yes they can. But maybe other affirmations like im calm etc are better ...or not..im questioning if its good...
Sweet viddy Marco, ppreciate u
Yes. So like my local 1/2... Players just underbluff so much it's very easy to know what they have and act accordingly. It's why I just farm my local casino for 10BB and hour at the weekends as a side hustle playing nutted hands only.
Great vid
My wife friend grandma sister boyfriend lover is huge fan of this channel
Maybe it's time for a video on playing defense? I know with your strategy, you are rarely the preflop caller but sometimes it does happen like when we call a 3bet, when we call vs a reg, or when we defend the big blind. Great tips though, dealing with that donk river line that people pull, solution is to just fold!
I'M BACK...WE DID IT...OMG WE MISSED U SO MUCH...OMG BLESS U ! ! OMG U BIG LARGE BOY ! LARRY!!! HAPPY BIRTHDAY!! ITS LARRYS LUNCHTIME LENTILS ARE SOMETHING ! ! ! 15" POKER HAAAAARRRRDDD ♠️ ♠️ ♠️
tubbytime tupperware!
It’s so funny, I just realized this ten minutes before seeing this video as I’m down 400 at live 1/2
With the hrs/stakes I play, the bootcamp would take forever to get an ROI from, but I wanna do it to hang out with Mark.
7 day crash course coming soon...
@@hungryhorsepokervery interested
You got a decent game man
On the last hand with AT piling in all the money only gets called when you're beat.
They are not playing any equilibrium. They can have a flush or atc if they think you’re a nit. Depends on the opponent.
2-5 players do not 4-bet AKsuited at 100% cutoff v button. Id say it’s closer to 2/3.
Holy shit sir. You must be rich.
There are a lot of assumptions being made about villein’s tendencies here. I’ve seen fish call small bets with huge combo draws and flushed etc… often.
Holy bananas ,Fedor and bryn just got crushed at the final 4 tableat the Triton $150k by two recreationals!!!!vlad and ossi Even chidwick, dan smith and Sam Greenwoodwas in the FT!!
I’ll make sure to check the river and let you value own yourself for me. 😬
Gawd. You need to play in Florida. Dinka and bluffs are breakfast food for Floridians.
You have to unbalance yourself to throw a punch. This isn't Tai Chi.
Sometime they dong river to set a price for their hand
Nice video as usual. I don't understand the reason why you bet small on those turns. Wouldn't be better to just check back (because we are ip) and fold/bluffcatch when they donk river? Also doesn't that bet runs the risk of getting bluff raised (we will fold ) from a draw/pair+draw? I am not saying it is not a good bet because it's exploitable. I am saying I don't understand the exploitative reasons of that bet.
Tip . . .
The majority of low stakes players . . . . will NEVER check raise bluff . . . like . . ever. Check raise are almost always exclusively the nuts.
When there is an inbalance on one side of the teeter totter , > it creates ANOTHER inbalance on the other side
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
🥰🥰🥰
English?
❤
welcome back
Too bad it’s not illustrated with real hands from your challenge
Alfo
The reason a lot of live pros, especially crushers from 20-30 years ago are losing players online. Is they picked up exploitative habits from playing against mostly fish and continued to play the same way. Not realizing that its not sound theory, and its going to get you crushed when you play against good observant players.
Dont play against good players then… 🙄
Does anyone know what hes looking at during the rants? Every 5 words he turns hard to the left or right. I cant figure it out.
He's looking at that sweet baby there.
❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Ok now delete this 😊
Somebody in the Thinking Poker community coined the term "Value panic" for the river donk when they get there. It seems quite apt, and Marc is correct that when they check the river it's the third and final nail in the coffin of their range.
Over the years I've gotten pretty good about folding all but the near-nuts to value-panic donks. But I never took it to the next step to drop the big boi B200 bluff. Even after they'd all but given me a signed affidavit that they had no very strong hands left.
That is changing, starting now.
🥰🥰🥰