I heard there is a pity system on the standard banner that you cant get 3 5 star characters or weapons in a row and after 2 your guaranteed next 5 star is the other. So if they don't want to add another button to the screen but add a hidden pity system they could guarantee 1 of each featured 4 star every 40-50 wishes. This would help unlucky players but guaranteeing a 4 star you may not want could hurt lucky players going for multiple copies.
Yeah, they could actually do something like that, it'd be a sneaky way to fix the system too! Great idea that I've not seen suggested before, I honestly think its the best one of seen lol. Though I suppose it would have the potential downside of making it so you cannot get as lucky. E.g. this system wouod make a 10 pull with 5 four stars in it impossible to have all 5 be one specific 4 star since it would alternate between Sayu, Noelle, and Frem. But I'd personally be happy with the exchange of taking away the really lucky circumstances in exchange for consistency. Oh, and fun fact, a system exists for swapping between 4 star weapon/characters on standard banner too, and it even used to exist on limited banner! Early data farming for Genshin showed that you got at least 1 weapon every 30 pulls on the limited banner (and this is still the case on standard banner), so early on it was actually even harder to get a specific 4 star because of the system guaranteeing a weapon every 30 pulls at minimum (so every 30 summons weapons would replace what could've otherwise been a character). They changed the limited banner to not guarantee 4 star weapons at some point in the past, though I dont know when (I verified with wishing data from multiple account that it doesnt happen anymore). Moral of the story is that our current system could've actually been worse had they never changed that!
maybe also add a system that lowers the chance of getting duplicates on standard banners. imagine playing for 3 years but the standard banner only ever gives u multiple skyward spine, aquila, diluc, and jean. i still dont have a single WGS/amos/lost prayer and mona at ar60. and if i didnt pull keqing in her banner i would also be missing her
Spent more trying to c6 Candace and Lynette than Childe on their rate up banners. Too be fair though I only had to pull Childe 3 times this banner. Cant pull for Nuvelette though cuz I want to gurentee Furirina. The thing that really hurts is pulling a charater when they are already c6ed and the frequency at which some charaters get the rate up. Like 4.2s banners rate up 4*s have been in the game since 1.0. C6s should be removed from the pot your account is pulling from.
Just to note. The pity system works a bit differently to this. It's simply that within 270 wishes you'll have a weapon and a character. So on your first time around you have a 50% chance to get a weapon or a character On your second time around, the percentages are shifted a bit but let's pretend it's still 50% On your third time around there is still a 50% chance to get a character and if this happens then right around 260ish wishes a weapon will appear. This basically means that you pull 3 characters in a row, the game will give you an extra 5* weapon as a bonus.
It is incredibly frustrating that not only do many of the newer four star characters heavily depend on constellations to be good, they also have not added a single four star to the starglitter shop. We're still stuck at the original 12. There isn't even an anemo unit in the shop at all, or dendro. Of course there are occasional other ways to get free four stars like events, but it's nowhere near enough to be reliable for most of them.
Yeah, I initially had a section talking about the starglitter shop, but decided it was a bit off track. But adding more options to the shop could definitely also be a way to mitigate this issue! (I'd vastly prefer there being a system that guaranteed a character of your choice every 40-50 pulls though)
That's a good thing,because the original 4 stars are the best by far if they added new 4 stars to the shop it will dilute the pool and we will have to wait longer to Cy them.
@@drbanemortem4155they could bump up the number available each cycle, e.g. 4 characters available at a time. unfortunately we’ll always have an issue for newer players having very limited resources (in this case starglitter) but eventually they catch up. eventually.
Its funny i play a gacha in which you basically get any 4 Star (it's 5 there) If you are a active player and there are so many. In Genshin there are a poop of them you can literally get them only on. A specific banner or super random in the Weapon or Standard randomly. Lol.
@@chaosinfernoid9008 Considering the fact that you get a guaranteed 4 star every 10 wishes but for a 5 star guaranteed is that you need to reach a 90 pity. If anything 4 stars ARE easier to get 5 star units but you’re still having a 50/50 chance of getting the rate up character OR the off banner character
@@serenseesitall No that isn't right. You get a 4 Star Character when you do a Multi guaranteed, after that it's a 4 Star Weapon and then Character and Weapon. It goes like this forever. So always: Char>Weapon>Char>Weapon This is applied to any banner no matter where you pull. Actually it does make it more "Pay2Win" If you think about it. Hoyo has some very nasty tricks into spending. I always say this same time they hate money for some reason they don't even do cheaper packs. They they making more money proves me people are stupid. And i myself felt for em too i admit that. Prolly more then 1 time. But that order of Char and then Weapon isn't enough. Then there are 4-4 Stars in the banner which means it's a 25% to obtain whatever you desire. Meaning lets say your roll for a 5 Star right? Which you should btw in the first place. Also want to get that 4 Star even If you go to guaranteed it's not guraranteed at all. Then we have to take in consideration there is a slight chance of getting the 4star-char 2 times or even 3 or 4 times If you are unrealisticly insanly lucky. The chance going higher and higher. The more you pull the more likely are you to get that desired one or even more copies is a conclusion we could say. Its rng at the end meaning If you pull much you will get to that no matter what. And you get Shop Wishes as well the more you summon. (And more wishes in general of course lol) Which in turn makes it even more p2w. They made some 4 Star the new ones normally even harder to obtain now. So F2P will suffer more in result. At the end doesn't matter though since 4 Star never matter in a gacha even Genshin. They are mostly mid-game characters which most players don't even get. Except for some Kuki in this video would be a good example. But i don't get the complains to much at the same time, like brother (or sis i guess) since If you played a game like Seven Deadly Sins Origins for example there gacha is much more worse. You need way way longer to get a 5 Star and they have NO FUCKING GUARANTEED 5 Star and all the 4 Star ar literally unusable. Genshin really is very calm and isn't as stingy as people make it to be. Ok im a Veteran Player and not F2P but i have for a long time Most 4 Star unlocked at C6 and i didn't btw summon them C6 every time or something like that. Just over time collected. But like i said even for non F2P it gets harder to collect em since you are forced to pull when they are there which is very very bad. Welp.
@@serenseesitall Oh btw you have amazing drawing skills my sis drew me a one piece picture for my birthday it's so amazing how talented ya'all i could never! 😊
one thing, the reason they changed the weapon banners was beacuse of tectone, that episode was BAD press for them, they are really scared of bad press, if you want a change you need a few big creators make a few videos showing how bad the system is and generating that bad advertisement, just look at the first anniversary and the 1.6* in google store p.d: another bad press event was the zhong li incident, they change him because he was a expensive unit and he was the god of liyue aka china and that cambination WAS REALLY BAD PRESS
yeah seems like they dont care unless it involves public negative outrage. hate tectone all u want but his contribution of exposing how shitty the weapon banner is very appreciated
I tried to get Heizou on his 1st banner with F2P primos i had saved like 60 wishes and whatever else starglitter that gave me and failed, to this day i dont have him XD
same I am still lacking him after all these months,same also with Sayu,tho I never pulled for her because she is always on the wrong banner@@AlvaroChuquiureZadig
Funny story... I started Kazuha's banner a while back (with heizou of course) and I had both of them at C0 going into it.. I now have a C4 Kazuha and a C3 Heizou 😐
i know your pain T-T when heizou first came out alongside kazuha, i had saved 100+ pulls for them both i got 1 heizou, 1 kazuha, and like 11 ningguangs 😭😭 MY NINGGUANG WAS ALREADY c6!!!!
My personal horror story was how I got a c2 Wanderer before I got my FIRST Faruzan. That banner ended and I had a c4 Wanderer and a *c2* Faruzan. I had enough Yanfeis to c6 her twice, though, which is funny considering I already had her c6. It really is wild how you can go so long without your target 4* to the point you get the featured 5* THREE times before you get one copy of them.
My first year and a half of game play I often experienced "character/weapon fixation"; keep getting the same thing over and over. My first C6 Beidou came along without breaking a sweat. It's fine when it's a favourable character, but gosh I think I've gotten C18 Dori or more.
@@riotangel4701 oh I get you, I only got my first Diona in Shenhe's last banner while I had Xinyans and Sucroses a plenty 5 months after starting to play 🤧
I used the last Kokomi banner to get the last two constellations for Faruzan. I only got one, stopping as I was approaching soft pity, after I got Kokomi’s C1.
I never got one single faruzan on wanderers first banner, but got her later from the event. On wanderers rerun I pulled from kokomis banner and got Faruzan to c6. I also have c4 kokomi 😂 though I don't mind because Kokomi is by far my favorite and she came erly many times.
As a kaeya main, i feel this deeply. Every patch there's an even smaller chance of getting a copy of him, yes he is in the shop but he only appears two times a year!! It would take me three years to get him c6 💀
@@Chestyfriend i do not lmao, i spend my starglitter in things like weapons since i need them the most, and who even buys acquaint fates with primos? 😭😭😭
@@deathmetalalchemist5861 Simple, the most 4 Star are very dogwater level or have super niche gameplay (in a very bad way though) obviously it's not only easy to get a 5 Star but also guaranteed, for a 4 Star you can pull 1000 times still dont have the 4 Star in theory. And the other thing is 4 Star If they aren't completly new come much more often then 5 Star and you will eventually max them in the future. So its kinda pointless except you really really need something.
@@chaosinfernoid9008 i know its crazy and insane to think about but some people actually pull for characters for their personality and design regardless of power level
@@chaosinfernoid9008oh wow imagine thinking players only pull for characters just because they're "meta" My brother have you ever heard of Klee mains? Y'know Klee the character where the majority of players consider clunky to play and "not meta"
I did around 170 pulls on Kazuha's first rerun banner. I didn't get a single Thoma. I wasn't really pulling for him, so at the time I didn't think much about it, but in hindsight it's ridiculous that you can go so many pulls without getting even one copy of a specific four star.
That only counts for F2P which this game isn't meant to. But funny enough they made some 4Star so rare to force you into going in there which isnt a good Idea from them and will in turn make it 90% harder for F2P which obviously are still the very Most players. I realise that too how casuale most people are when i look at their characters. Funny enough this game is meant to be played i bit more then casual in my opinion. But not too much. Obviously they can't do that without literally any innovation. Fricking Star Rail getting all their Attention. Once again Honkai their favourite child. Once again tragedy.
When I was trying to get my Zhongli to C1, (hoping for future C2)(lost 50/50) I wished 100 times. I only got 1 freminet. BUT I got 5 Noelle's and 6 Sayu's. My Noelle was already C6 so the extra 5 didn't help and Sayu was already C4. I don't really plan on using or building freminet but it still would have been nice to get more in case I do decide to start using him.
There was a similar frustration over Anemo characters. Sucrose didn’t make the initial cut into the glitter shop. That glitter shop has never been updated. Liyue is the only zone with a 4-star selector. There are no 4-star Anemo characters from Liyue. There’s no Epitomized Path for either 4-star characters or 5-star Standard characters. All of this meant that to sole way to guarantee an Anemo character was to swipe for Venti/Xiao/Kazuha/Wanderer, and that still involves gambling. Oh, the free event characters? None of them had ever been Anemo until Faruzan was winnable two patches before Lynette’s debut.
@@log3ckert386Honestly wish they had more events that weren't story locked because of that. I don't even want to know how many new players had their entire game spoiled just trying to do the fairly recent windblume event, for example.
There are many documented examples of players C6ing a new 5-star before C6ing the new 4-star on the same banner. I would like to see the Epitomized Path added to the Standard Banner as well for 4-stars. Almost no one spends money on the Standard Banner because the pool is too big for a reliable return. If you could guarantee a specific 4-star after 40 pulls then players would have a reason to convert their primos into Acquaint Fates on occasion. Lowering the number of Fates people have increases their chance to spend more to acquire more Fates for the new limited banner character.
They kind of did an epitomized path for Star Rail with a 5 star of your choice after 300 pulls. It did convince me to do a 10 pull on their standard banner every so often just to reach the 300 faster. So it clearly works in principle
One thing I would like to add is that some 4 stars only appear with specific banners, like faruzan, sara, and gorou have only appeared with wander, raiden, and itto banners, and those banners typically only rerun once a year. So it is extra difficult for people to get c6 for 4 stars like these. Which is very annoying especially since you need c6 for characters like these to unlock their full potential.
Exactly, like I don't care about any of those five stars, but I would still like to have c6 Sara for my Keqing, c6 gorou for Noelle (who is still only c2 btw :')) and c6 faruzan for Xiao/Heizou. They could easily put Sara with Yae, Gorou with Albedo and Faruzan with Xiao, but no. It's so frustrating...
Me who got c6 gorou (i like him but geo is meh and i dont have itto) when i joined back the game in 3.3 after i had to stop playing around 1.6 (that mean i had 0 gorou) on wanderer banner in at most 90 pull because I won his 50/50 and got only 1 faruzan: this is fine
@@idasolecka9618 I'm in the same boat! I have other electro units that could benefit from sara cons but I don't have any desire to own raiden. It sucks thinking about potentially losing my featured 50/50 use because of the system.
I feel this so much. When Kuki Shinobu originaly released, I pulled for her (she released on Ittos banner). Wasnt much of an Itto fan at the time, but still pulled. Ended up loosing my 5* 50/50, AND went to pity on Itto. Only after getting 2 5* units did i leave with a Kuki in my roster. I really do hope they give us more control over this.
@@karenwang313 Yeah, I guess you're right, just couldn't resist her amazing design and personality. (I was f2p at the time if that changes anything) Its still nice to think about a better system though.
An addition I'd like to make is that for long time players who have perfected wish management, of my friends and I we're typically willing to go up to about thirty wishes to try at a four star. I think there is a decent number of experienced players who are stopping after just a couple of ten pulls anyway, to preserve pity. But if we take that "I'll throw thirty wishes, just to see..." and hold it against your proposed "guaranteed after 40", it encourages just one more ten pull. And that would have positive effects for players and Hoyo. As a player, the guaranteed four star is obviously great. As a company, Hoyo has now convinced many more players to risk pity as they go for their guarantee. That means more people will get unlucky and get the five star they don't want, making them more likely to spend money in future when there is a character they like.
I'm so glad I didn't have to go through that, I got my c6 yanfei and she carried me from liyue to fontain. I'm trying other exploration teams and nothing is better than my Yanfei.
In my main account, I pull around 240 too but no Sampo (on the standard banner so I can understand that) but heck, even on Kafka banner, I got E2 Kafka, around 150 pull I still never got him. In the end he spooked me when tried to pull Fu Xuan E1. To think that I've been put in such a place, forcing me to pull for just one copy of lower rarity, feels so weird to me till this day.
I had no Sampo on my account until I pulled Kafka and got him E6 (I lost to Kafka though, I guess it's not that hard to upgrade character to E6 when you do 160 rolls). Anyway, so far it's easier for me to get all 4 stars in HSR than in Genshin, since I started it from day one, unlike Genshin, which I started right before Sumeru release. But even in Genshin the only ones left for me to get are Gorou and Kiara
Not going to lie, this is a really refreshing video. I like when people add numbers to their complaints because it feels like maybe they can make a difference. This is a helpful video and imo is one of your best! This is a problem that we all hope they can solve.
I was looking for someone to talk about this, and having an actual discussion on it. It took me until Lantern Rite just to obtain Chongyun, and that was only because of the whole "choose your own 4* character" event. It was a painful experience considering I wanted him since his release. To this day, he's still c0 despite my wishing on banners he has rate up on. ♡
Soluna: I really dig the synthesis you did with this video explaining the problem, relating it to the weapon banner, and showing that it seems like it wouldn't be a net loss, but possibly a net gain for Hoyo to implement such a similar system. To answer your question posed at the end (why haven't they done this already?) I disagree that this is a case of not rocking the boat; I think you've neglected something important that Hoyo also knows with way more precision than us and through our ability to poll our own userbase. Hoyo isn't trying to make money off the 4*-chasing pulls directly. My strong intuition is this wishing activity, which you might detect statistically by seeing which users stop wishing after reaching a C6 or certain number of the latest 4*, isn't a significantly large portion of limited banner pulls. Instead, the goal is to adjust the seasoned player population behavior. The players who have mostly exhausted the starglitter shop, have a stable of strong 5*s, and for whom chasing limited 4*s (and weapons) is the final frontier of account progress outside artifacts. Keeping this model pushes the window of acceptability of seasoned, moderate players towards spending more money. By not having a guarantee, it makes that slice of players who achieve their 4*s goal progress without tripping over a 5* they don't want feel lucky and that their risky behavior was warranted, any money spent worth it. This lowers their inhibition to spend wishes or money they didn't budget have the next time a 4* or 5* constellation, or (horrors!) weapon is desired. Even if they get a 5* they didn't want along the way, knowing that getting a desired 4* is difficult makes that goal once reached feel ever the sweeter, and that hit of endorphins is way better than getting your guaranteed 5* you already knew was coming at wish ~75. Even if this backfires for some unlucky seasoned players who feel disillusioned, they are in the minority. I'm sure the statistics show that many more players will get the 4*s they wanted, based on the expected values of the distribution. Those players who got what they wanted and stopped have been conditioned to take those same risks again, and reframe what is an acceptable number of pulls for a 4* going forward, and THAT is the group of paying customers Hoyo wants to retain and refine as this service game enters it's back half of development. As others have mentioned, it would probably take a Tectone level of drama for multiple creators over a banner for them to consider changing it. Although I think us having the discussion and keeping the discussion active with their higher profile creators and bringing it up constantly in feedback _could_ influence their decision without a big event trigger... maybe, eventually. Because what they don't want is their seasoned players thinking about the numbers and strategies too analytically, they want us thinking and wishing emotionally.
I don’t have Kaveh kirara and now Freminet… because of the banners they came on.. I can’t afford to risk getting an unwanted five star. They really need to fix this. Cause those 3 characters are ones I love so much
I feel that Hoyos base premises is not that more wishing is more money more like getting people frustrated without pissing them of to much is money. Because people that are emotional are more likely to do bad decisions like spending money they don’t have or shut. They actually don’t want people to plan there pulls and manage there resources. What they want is people to pull mindlessly and out of emotion. We can also see that in how all the content try’s to bound the characters emotional to players.
@@QuinquetPourpre It absolutely would. A guarantee for 4 stars would cause people to think more about how much resources they need 4 that new 4 star character or c6 him as well as planning and manage their resources better. What is something Hoyo doesn’t want, is highly afraid of and goes completely against their business model. They want u to think I can spend a 10 pull to maybe get that 4 star than get frustrated and emotional because u didn’t got them then keep pulling until u get them without paying attention on how much resources u spend. Therefore we will never get something like that for 4 stars no matter if it would make them more money or not.
@@darkangel999that argument is not very smart, 90% of people DO NOT wish for 4*, they wish for the 5*. Which is a direct contradiction to what you are saying since 5* DO have a hard pity, which allows you to plan your wishes. It also further contradicts the fact that the weapon banner also has a hard pity system which it didn't have before. Tectone case with Homa is really a golden example of what you're talking about an how hoyo did exactly what you said they wouldn't do. No, your argument doesn't makes sense.
@@lXlDarKSuoLlXl I think you underestimate how much people pull on banners to get 4 stars. I already pulled on a banner just to get Candace, got Yae by accident while pulling for a 4 star (think it was to get Layla), resonantly got wanderer and c1 kokomi only because I wanted to c6 Faruzan. Also I know a lot of people that did similar things. The 5 star pity is an hole other story because it could be considered gambling in china and a few other country’s if they don’t had one. Regarding to the weapon banner pity system it most likely is the same as more and more attention got to that topic they were afraid to be classified as gambling in some country’s by law and changed it to play on the save side.
@@lXlDarKSuoLlXl I think you underestimate how much people pull on banners to get 4 stars. I already pulled on a banner just to get Candace, got Yae by accident while pulling for a 4 star (think it was to get Layla), resonantly got wanderer and c1 kokomi only because I wanted to c6 Faruzan. Also I know a lot of people that did similar things. The 5 star pity is an hole other story because it could be considered gambling in china and a few other country’s if they don’t had one. Regarding to the weapon banner pity system it most likely is the same as more and more attention got to that topic they were afraid to be classified as gambling in some country’s by law and changed it to play on the save side.
@@darkangel999I underestimate how much people wish for 4* because that's what the numbers say literally, people don't wish for 4* in general, most do the "building pity" thing but that's just gambling addiction. Gacha is already gambling, gacha is the name of machines that ARE used in gambling centers. Being "classified" as gambling isn't that mystic man, you just need to give real money in return and viola, you are classified as "real" gambling, that's how pachinko machines dodge regulations. Just because it isn't "classified" by law as gambling doesn't means it ISN'T gambling, gachas are literally soft gambling. Oh and they didn't change the weapons banner because of that. But nice try tho.
Absolutely true, I also would wish they implemented a similar system to the standard banner. 4 stars are supposed to be like easily accessible and beginner friendly but it's damn near impossible to get the ones you want. You dont wanna pull on the limited banner if you dont want the 5 stars and also there's no telling how much you need to spend to just get one copy of the 4 star. On top of that you can wait for months for the specific four star to be featured. So what can you do? You get a tiny amount of blue wishes for free (which i have no idea why) and the pool of shit characters is quite large. It doesnt make any sense to buy more stadard fates because they cost the same and are much much worse value. You can only wait and hope that the 5 star on the banner will also be the one you want or that you will get the 4 star early and not ruin your pity. Me and my brother are both ar 55 (me almost 56) and neither of us has Sucrose or Kuki for example. I wouldnt even have Fischl yet if i didnt buy her from the shop.
It’s really bad considering that Amber, Kaeya, and Lisa do *not* have a relative rate-up in that banner. So each new 4-star character drops the odds of getting them.
Yup i got a c3 wanderer a tighnari a mona and a kokomi trying to get 4 faruzans cons for c6 I used 22k primos tho so i got lucky with the 5 stars WAY before pity blew up my furina savings😢 getting back there rn
The Epitomized Path in my head had you get the target in the third try, but only counting the wrong rate-ups as tries. Weapons and random characters wouldn’t count. This puts the hard limit at 60 wishes.
On Tartaglia's banner, I actually pulled 5 copies, YES 5 COPIES OF TARTAGLIA WITHOUT GETTING EVEN ONE Freminet it was the craziest thing that's ever happened to me. But I have a feeling it happens more often than it should. They definitely place the shiny new 4* on rerun banners like these to incentivize people who already have ZL/Childe to pull anyways. I would imagine people who aren't Childe mains like me would be fuming if they got him to C5 before getting one Freminet lol. Well, at least I was pulling for C6 anyways.
When the game came out I really wanted cons for my Noelle and I got c1 Klee before I ever got a Noelle. I like Klee so it was cool, but still kind of absurd
As someone who went for C4 Lynette and actually got her, man it was terrifying risking my guaranteed with each x10, it was ~50/60 pulls in total, Im not doing this again any time soon lol
@@escapetherace1943 Genshin players: just pull for who you like lol Also Genshin players when I spend my hard earned primos on cons of a character I like playing instead of being a sheep and keep pulling for new characters like 90% of the players: lmao youre so wrong, might as well just kill yourself You just cannot win I guess... Just for you know, Lynnette burgeon with Dehya is fun as fuck and I already cleared abyss with it it, now, if you cant think by yourself on how to use characters and just follow theorycrafters' "orders", thats not my problem.
When kokomi/scara banner arrived, I wasn't really looking for either of them (already had scara) however my faruzan was still c5. So I knew I wouldn't mind a kokomi but as soon as I got faruzan I was going to get out of there. You know what happened? I spent 70 wishes on koko banner and won 50/50 and got her. No faruzan. I desperately wanted that c6 so I went to scara banner. I spent another 50 wishes and got a keqing con. Still no faruzan. After that I stopped (yay guaranteed childe!) but it's beyond frustrating that I can get 2 five stars before the ONE FOUR STAR I was looking for.
It's a good idea but it's like a bandaid for the real issue, 4* characters that are SO heavily reliant on constellations to be "complete" or rather, "useful". But asking hoyo to not make those kind of characters would "hurt their bottom line", it'd be like asking the game industry to make complete games with no microtransactions, it's a fools errand. Specially so considering this is a gacha that depends so heavily on preying on your wallet. 😂
I'm starting to have a bad feeling that Genshin is intentionally leaving the game with huge flaws for old players so they just keep a revolving door of players instead of fixing anything. Whether it's combat, story or the gacha, the game feels more and more uninterested in dealing with issues old players have
That thumbnail felt like getting shot in the bawls ... i used 90 wishes to get Faruzan Constellations on her last rerun and only got one Faruzan copy 💀
When Cyno/Candace's banner was released a year ago, I really wanted to get Candace as well as Cyno...and I ended up with a c2 Cyno before I got a c0 Candace
Great vid Sol! I agree with 90% of the video, however I dont see this realistically happening. Although they do make style of life changes every now and then ive never seen them make a dramatic change that actually changes a core mechanic in the game. (besides weapon banner which is still a scam). Like you said "if it aint broke dont fix it" is the hoyoverse mentality
Yeah, math wise I just don't think there is any reason for them not to fix it. But yeah, they are so change averse I don't necessarily expect it. This video is my best attempt at least trying to make it have a chance of being more likely.
As a F2P player who is also in a similar situation with my account, I'd like to share my own experience because I think it supports this video. I pretty much always pull until I get the limited 5 star I want and immediately stop. Because of this I've had a surplus of fates for a long time but the only times I broke my rule of immediately stopping after getting the 5 star I wanted were on Wanderer's first banner, where I kept going to try to get more Faruzan cons (she was only C2), but ended up stopping a few pulls later when I got very lucky and rolled a 2nd Wanderer followed by a Keqing, at which point I decided to just save my guarantee for the next character. I then broke my rule again for Wanderer's second banner where I pulled, despite already having both Wanderer and Kokomi, once again in hopes of getting some Faruzan cons, but stopped once I hit 74 pity with 0 Faruzans in sight, to save my pity for Lyney. I can definitely see myself having gone for a few more pulls if there was a 4 star epitomized path and I was just a little off from the next Faruzan con and already had a few more cons in general from the previous epitomized paths. Instead, I went into Fontaine and got Lyney in 1 ten pull and now have enough primos for Neuvilette and Furina and then some so I don't think Hoyo can break my F2P streak.
It´s not only the 4 star characters system that´s bringing their business down, it´s also their lack of interests about endgame players, after you get to AR 55+ you probably already beat every abyss 36 stars, you already have the 5 stars you want and the game has simply 0 challenge or incentive for you to keep wishing for anything, if you like the story you can keep coming back to follow the archon quests and that´s it.
I'm glad I stopped taking this game seriously months ago. It's the last game I play so I just use it to fill in empty time and level what I got and it's much more comfortable that way. Would definitely be nice if they made it easier to acquire and level other characters so at least I can experiment with the many different playstyles, but the RNG and resource-deprivation mechanics is ridiculous.
As someone who went for C4 Lynette and actually got her, man it was terrifying risking my guaranteed with each x10, it was ~50/60 pulls in total, Im not doing this again any time soon lol
42:00 the only definitive way HOYO will listen is if both CN and global community can agree on something to fix and THEN use our money to let them know. by not spending on a banner for the 1st week or something. but that won't happen cause whales and cc's need to make money from videos and people need the character NOW. some of the fixes and changes that players are asking for, as just a few lines of code. it should not take them so long to initiate small fixes. (based on several friends/YT that are in game production and play the game, so this is an extremely small sample size/opinion and could be wrong). Genshin is basically the middle child, used to fund the eldest and younger siblings/projects edit: also i think all the people who are wanting change, they just quit and HOYO just looks at the newer players to make up the deficit. nearly alot of changes are geared toward making the newer player experience better. think HOYO doesnt mind they quit, esp when they just go to another HOYO game that has the features they want. HSR has a lot of the QOL that people want in Genshin and people are always comparing them
I totally gave up wishing for 4 stars I wanted since the Sara acident. Getting C2 Raiden when I didn't like or want Raiden shogun and for these around 200 saved wishes didn't get even 1 Sara was too much for me
The things is that ppl stopped asking for changes coz most of they stopped playing the game, ppl that play at launch are not playing anymore, so most of the player base play casually and most error and fixes are noticeable after ar 53 - 55 and by that time most of those spent a little and left and then maybe come back later who knows but never will acknowledged the problems we are strugling with, so yes i been playing since day 1 and i used to ask for things on surverys and i dont do anymore coz the only thing they updated for a lot of time was the Teapot, then came the TCG and while its nice and all no one ever asked for that, etc so why keep asking for changes that never come? so theres 2 options quit or keep playing accepting the game as it is and most of but should I say little of us who still play have stopped filling the survers or sending tickets coz as long as 1.They keep making money 2.That player base that gives them money is Casual. -- We will never have enough pressure to call for change -- When: 1.the game is goin down views and sales (or when it goes low enough) or 2.theres a direct game that competes and becomes the next gaccha If this 2 requisites are met they will have to innovate and change (1 already happening), otherwise they wont. The moment other game steals they're player base they will have to improve but as it is now they are cannibalizing their own games so they keep the profit - tho Star Rail is not as successful as Genshin was. So thats why some ppl say it doesnt matter what we say or not coz we have been asking for things for at least 2.5 years :v,. Im cool with things as they are (i do believe the rewards for anniversary are so lackluster but what's new? xD) I'm waiting 👀 also if Hoyoverse hears anyone is their China audience.
I heavily agree with everything except for the last part: Hoyo listening to very few out of hundreds of demands and feedbacks doesn't mean Hoyo listens, it means they listen 1% of the time. When Dehya got released literally everyone and their mothers wanted her to get buffed and despite support telling players that they are working on it they haven't done anything for and probably will never do because she isn't from the Genshinese China.
Thanks to @Kekvin www.youtube.com/@esqpur/ and @esqpur www.youtube.com/@esqpur/ for doing those polls for me! Check them out! And of course checkout TenTen's video too! ruclips.net/video/pTs-_qqDUJI/видео.html I want to further clarify the simulated data from TenTen in the video. TenTen didn't factor in soft pity for 4 stars, which makes it more likely to get a 4 star before the guaranteed four star on the 10th summon. Now, I know this exists, but when I was trying to find data on the exact chances for four stars factoring soft pity in, I couldn't find good sources, so I couldn't even try to simulate something myself with soft pity. Overall though, it was unimportant to what I was trying to illustrate in this video, as the point was just using data that would look similar to the real world in order to illustrate how Hoyo can make a guarantee system balanced to cutoff outliers wherever they see fit. I could've technically just drawn my own curve to illustrate the point I made, but I wanted to use something more close to reality, which TenTen's simulated data still was. All I did was compare a hypothetical system in the context of TenTen's data, so the real average wasn't important for making a comparitive illustration on stastitics in general. It would be important if we were actually drawing specific estimates to money Hoyoverse makes, but that is not the point of this video. The real world data, due to the soft pity system, would look the same as the simulated curve from TenTen, but with the peak of the curve shifted slightly left on the X axis. It does not change the comparitive illustration I was trying to make, but would make it more likely for Hoyoverse to implement a hypothetical guarantee system closer to my dream of 40 summons to guarantee a specific 4 star character. Anyhow, I still got a bit off script at points, in case it wasn't obvious. Hope you enjoyed watching this video, it is probably the most work I have put into any video I have made. Next week should be something more fun, since I do prefer having fun playing Genshin rather than writing 6000 words about something that makes me sad, believe it or not!
For the 4s soft pity i have seen this video by @Vidmiloo: ruclips.net/video/wwW12uQLCiw/видео.html I'm not sure if what he shows is true, since i don't know the source of this info, but it seems to make sense. Also, I get your point (and i agree), but the reasoning at 30:00 isn't really correct. It would be correct for a single copy of the character, but with multiple it's a bit more complicated. What happens is that the interval between two copies can never exceed 40, so a lot of people before the 280 mark would also take less pulls, for example: if someone gets their copies at (80, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30) for a total of 260 pulls, it would become (40, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30), for a total of 220. And for the majority of people over 280, they would need less than 280, for ex: (80, 30, 30, 120, 30, 30, 30), total 350 -> (40, 30, 30, 40, 30, 30, 30), total 230. The only way for someone to get 280 would be to get to hard pity every time, which would be extremely unlikely. I think the result would be for the entire curvbe to be pulled to the left, with the samples that were above 280 being redistributed mostly along the latter parts of the curve. That is more pessimistic than what you show, but i think that the main point of the video still stands. (if you want i could also make a python script to see the before and after, as well as estimating how much money they would lose from implementing something like this. I have fun doing stupid shit like this)
I made a script way back to get an exact probability distribution without simulating many trials (I manipulate the probability distribution itself, and not sample from it). Your 40 pull dream is hard to pull off without changing other numbers like the 50% rate up, or maintaining the pool of three rate up characters. The closest I came up with (maintaining the average) is a guarantee every 70 pulls, but I lowered the base rate of obtaining 4 stars to 1.7%. Soft and hard pity are still at wish 9 and 10 respectively. Edit: another configuration 1.8% base rate, 33.33% rate up, guarantee on 6th 4 star (60 pulls max). (Note that a lower rate up percent isn't that bad since a non-rate up pull guarantees the next pull to be a rate up. This would have saved me from being Kuki-less with a C1 Itto 😭) Edit2: If hoyoverse is generous enough to just guarantee a specific 4 star on the 6th proc, the average pulls to get a 4 star would be around 1 in 27.3 pulls.
i’ve been playing genshin since may, so i’m not a long term player just yet, but hyperfixation go brrr and i sped through the entire game up until that point in about two weeks, and i’m currently at ar 56. despite my ar being pretty damn high, being at world level 8, having a fair amount of 5 star characters now, and one 5 star weapon, i still don’t have razor, sucrose, shinobu, ningguang and candace, 4 star characters that i really want. especially razor, because he’s one of my favourite characters, and shinobu because she’s just really good and i like her. it also took me until lyney’s banner to get bennett, i ended up having to get xingqiu with my starglitter from my (weirdly successful) childe and zhongli pulls, and it took until neuvilette’s banner to finally get fischl. it’s honestly getting ridiculous and i felt like i was at a huge disadvantage due to not having bennett for ages. at least shinobu will be on cyno’s banner, since i’m using my guarantee to get him, but standard banner really doesn’t want me to have my boy razor for some reason. it’s really frustrating. also i’m still annoyed that i got like 8 rosarias when wishing for wanderer, who’s been my main since i got him, but i still only have c1 faruzan and c0 yanfei. pain.
They need to fix weapon banner too, there's a reason everyone calls it a scam. The "bad luck protection" on weapon banner might as well not even exist. On average by the time you've failed to get your weapon of choice two times, you've used over *200* wishes ($400 USD) and that's just to *unlock* the pity mechanic. Then you have to pull again for the 75% chance you get your weapon, note that this is *never* 100% like character banner. I wanted Neuvillette's weapon, it took me, no kidding, 260 wishes to get his weapon. 260. Utterly mental.
I would love to see the true Genshin data about how many people turn primos into resin. I know a couple friends that are wealthy enough to just go for top-ups instead of relying on per patch primogem count. But in general I strongly agree that we need some kind of epitomed path for 4 stars. I have a cautionary tale where I wanted Dionas C6 and got both Ayaka and Shenhe losing both 50/50s and I didn't get a single Diona. I'm livid I can't wish in this current banner anymore because both Zhongli and Tartaglias C1's have a very low priority for my account. But I really, really want Noelles C6 😢😢
I’ve been trying to get Diluc for three years, and it’s so infuriating that I’ve nearly c6d the other standard 5 stars. I wished there was a path for standard 5 stars on event banners just in case, or something like that on standard.
I liked this. I think part of the issue, at least to me is first people don't know WHERE or how to file a .. compliant? Suggestion? something. and compliancy of the community. things change yes, but most people gave up.
I bileve that the devs created the game and was very surprised by how much money it made them and now they are so scared about changing anything about the game.
Day one F2P here. This video is very relateable to me. This is why I don't bother acquiring for the latest 4*, I'd ended up with other 4* beside the advertised one anyway. I realised this way back and just never pull unless it's the 5* that I want and I'm not bothered by what 4* I acquire at that point. Truth is the 4* I only use are from Mondstadt and Liyue for my team, I don't feel 4* from Inazuma, Sumeru and Fontaine are as good as those from Mondstadt and Liyue. That, or I am no longer bothered to use the latest 4*. I benched them all, only for their friendship level and Acquint Fate. The 4* selector didn't help much as they focus only Liyue character so far.
i get the point but why are two of my best mains in the thumbnail lol /lh i’m kind of annoyed that i had to go to pity and get shenhe and still didn’t get mika at the end, but i don’t think hoyo will ever fix this. i really don’t believe they don’t know of this, and they already did this for the weapon banner, so they would have done it already if they wanted to (how many times am i going to add on to this lmao) i got 3 5*s getting c6 faruzan, and although i did get a little lucky and i needed all the characters, that is still a lot
Haha Frem just because he's recent and Faruzan because a number of people may have pulled more on a banner just for her cons, and she had a nice snooty pose for the thumbnail lol
Just about a week ago I was trying to pull for Freminet a little bit on Zhongli’s banner. I got 4 Sayus and a Zhongli at 22 pity. I’m glad I got such an early 5 star but still a little disappointed that Freminet just doesn’t like me I guess 😂
280 pulls and only a single faruzan on the previous wanderer/kokomi banner. It was my only chance to really get faruzan too, because I don’t want wanderer and he probably won’t run with a character I want constellations of in a long while.. Was so painful to scroll through my friend’s list and see somebody whale and get both at c6. Have also done 180 pulls for diona but only a single copy, and faruzan and diona are the only 4 star cons that I really want :’) I'd be glad if they added the 4 stars to the starglitter shop after a period of time, like a year, but I doubt that'd earn hoyo much
I've gotten 5-stars and cons as a side consequence of trying to cons certain 4-stars. Currently at least this year I've been incredibly lucky with 5-stars. Suspect they leave the system as is because with their ver 3 4-star design philosophy - make them feel incomplete or unplayable unless certain cons obtained - players would keep throwing in the wishes. And their actual data likely showing that to be the case.
AGREED. I feel you. For me, even just one copy of a 4 star character is SO HARD to obtain. I've experienced few times where I spend so much wishes just to get C0, like around 80 wishes for C0 Candace, 60 wishes for C0 Layla also C0 Kirara, and now with Freminet which I haven't even get his C0 yet. I've pulled around more than 60 wishes and still no C0 Freminet. I've just lost my guarantee to Zhongli cons while trying to get C0 Freminet. 😭
I'm REALLY tired of getting suckered out of so many primos and a good amount of money hoping to get at LEAST a C3-C4 4 star character and somehow ending up with ONE. Tried to get Heizou C6 on his rerun? Ended up getting C4 Kazuha when I didn't even have constellations for him to begin with! And I only ended up with a C3 Heizou after that many rolls!! And just recently I rolled to try and get C6 Freminet... I've spent close to 150 dollars and I've gone through a total of roughly 160 wishes and I only got TWO OF HIM. Something has to change, like the weapon banner did.
on my f2p account i spent about 150 wishes for a single copy of xiangling (she was in the glitter shop at the time and i needed 2 copies to upgrade her from the sorry c2 state she was in for years to her c4 state where she becomes a useable unit and i stand by it that pre c3 Xiangling is hypercope, c3 is sophisticated malding and only at c4 shes actually completely useable) so i needed one from the convenient banner she was on at the time especally since this was the infamous permafreeze abyss with cryo heralds in 12-1 i was on garuanteed and like 60 pity but being a kazuha haver for soo long on my main account i was fine with getting kazuha but i kept getting heizous and yaoyaos. another frenzy and a keqing later still no xiangling at around 55 pity (i had no sense of how many pulls it were) i cooled down and waited till my history updated and the x10 after i finally got the last copy of xiangling i needed after a glorious ~150 of my saved up pulls spent (i was fine with kazuha and still am in hindsight of neuvilette and the zhongli i was garuanteed i still made the most out of it but man a pity system couldve came in clutch even one as archaic as after 5 4*s that arent your desired one you get the one you want garuanteed which would mean assuming average luck youd at least get one copy of your desired 4* garuanteed per 5* pulled
It would be great if you could select a 4* for a higher chance on the standard banner at least, like in PGR. Or exchange 5 stellar fortunas of pulls you already have c6 for one con on a 4* of your choosing. Getting new 4*s on high con is absolutel miserable. I payed to try to get more Beidou cons, because i fell in love on her first banner - that's Childe's. I payed for her on Childe's, later on Xiao's banner too, only to get c3 beidou. I bought her in the shop twice and only got her c6 a whole year after i first got her and that was when there were fewer 4*s in the game.
Awesome video but there is a problem on the frase "if you would get this data from players it would be about the same", the problem is bias, the people who would provide said data is probably mad that they didn't got what they wanted, and wanted to prove you're theory. Another thing that i find funny funny is when content creators make pols, its such a niche audience, (genshin player, speaks english, watches genshin content, mid to late game, understands the game's mechanics currencies meta etc) its not anyone's fault, you cant access the average genshin player online bc they're probably not online. Also, hoyo wont add the path to 4* bc they don't want to make the wishing system even more complicated for new players it already took 5 min for you to explain. Adding the 4* to the shop would be better i think.
Not only are they hard to get, theyre also increasingly niche, increasingly dependent on constellations to fix problems they have, and keep on being weaker than units that have been around forever that everybody has c6 by now.
the pulling aspect doesn't really matter after you play for awhile.. you only need 8 heavily invested in chars. I have over 15 chars that i really like and i dont get to use half of them. The biggest complaint most non-invested players have is the banners/gacha system but if you're actually playing as a veteran at some point you stop even caring about pulls as much
While I agree the that something like this should be implemented (just recently spent 250 wishes and only obtained 5 faruzan for myself) , I think you are missing an important reason why it isn't necessarily better for hoyo in terms of making money, and that is that primos/wishes become more expensive the deeper into the banner you go. F2P/welkin players can save 100-200 wishes by saving for a couple of patches, but if you want to drop 300-500 wishes needed to get that C6 4 star you want if you are slightly unlucky you probably have to spend the outrageous price on the crystal packs, which get even worse once you use the first time bonus. So the distribution of money spent isn't exactly in line with total wishes on the banner, and grows sharply towards the unlucky outlier tail of the distribution.
it really is a problem cause i really wanted freminet with my zhongli over 120 saved f2p wishes and not a single freminet, but i did get c2 zhongli and a diluc (seems like a whin but i would've preferred a freminet rather than the other two four stars i already have c6 of)
I joined in 1.3 at the end of xiao's banner and pulled for childe in his first rerun. Im not a fan of fischl but I did want rosaria who was on his banner. I reached 8- ish almost 90 pulls before I was able to pull childe and rosaria. I was happy I did not get fischl. It was not until xiao's lantern rite rerun the following year where I was pulling for his weapon did I pull her. If my account was my friend's who mained her im sure she would have been devastated. I did spend alot of money pulling prior and was able to get all of the 5 star standard banner characters 4 months prior to getting my first fischl.
Thanks to @Kekvin and @Engineering Plastics for doing those polls for me! Check them out! And of course checkout TenTen! ruclips.net/video/pTs-_qqDUJI/видео.html I want to further clarify the simulated data from TenTen in the video. TenTen didn't factor in soft pity for 4 stars, which makes it more likely to get a 4 star before the guaranteed four star on the 10th summon. Now, I know this exists, but when I was trying to find data on the exact chances for four stars factoring soft pity in, I couldn't find good sources, so I couldn't even try to simulate something myself with soft pity. Overall though, it was unimportant to what I was trying to illustrate in this video, as the point was just using data that would look similar to the real world in order to illustrate how Hoyo can make a guarantee system balanced to cutoff outliers wherever they see fit. I could've technically just drawn my own curve to illustrate the point I made, but I wanted to use something more close to reality, which TenTen's simulated data still was. All I did was compare a hypothetical system in the context of TenTen's data, so the real average wasn't important for making a comparitive illustration on stastitics in general. It would be important if we were actually drawing specific estimates to money Hoyoverse makes, but that is not the point of this video. The real world data, due to the soft pity system, would look the same as the simulated curve from TenTen, but with the peak of the curve shifted slightly left on the X axis. It does not change the comparitive illustration I was trying to make, but would make it more likely for Hoyoverse to implement a hypothetical guarantee system closer to my dream of 40 summons to guarantee a specific 4 star character. Anyhow, I still got a bit off script at points, in case it wasn't obvious. Hope you enjoyed watching this video, it is probably the most work I have put into any video I have made. Next week should be something more fun, since I do prefer having fun playing Genshin rather than writing 6000 words about something that makes me sad, believe it or not!
Let's not forget the guarantee is the psychological trap of the entire system. If it was a "real" lottery nobody would whale, instead everybody would wish with a "budget" in mind. Why have one trap if you can have two?
Yeah, I maybe should have mentioned outright how a 4* guarantee system is likely to make people make worse decisions (risking getting 5 stars you dont need), which can further serve to monetarily benefit hoyo. But I decided that was inherently just a derivation of the basic "more wishing = more money for hoyo" point I already spent a bunch of time talking about
Great vid and I think, especially newer players should watch this video along with other vids, that display the real probabilities of wishing in GI (e.g. Vidmilo did great pieces on character an weapon banners). Now my experiences: Background: Startet in 1.0 as a low spender, but bought Welkin Moon and Battle Pass. Spend for Xiao when he came out and his weapon, so I was a tiny dolphin. I always wanted C1 Sucrose, since I think she is a great char. First time wished on her on the 1.2 Albedo banner, which was sensible, since Fischl and Bennett where on it too. Then wished again on 1.4 Venti banner for her. I now have Albedo and Venti. Fischl and Bennet are on C6...... and Sucrose? She is on C0! Two Banners wished until the 5 stars came and even further, for only one Sucrose! This was the time I swore to myself, to never wish on a 4 star again (I know this was an outlier, but this does not help me...). Furthermore it was conducive to my GI burnout, so I stopped in 1.5 or 1.6. I just came back to the second half of 4.0. In that time no Welkin Moon, no Battle Pass and no slight spending on chars I would have wanted, and trust me, there are some I really want now.... I think Mihoyo lost money with that on me... When I see the trend now, that some 4 stars seem to need C6 (e.g. Faruzan or Sara) I can only laugh. I will never pull for them! I can go for Kazuha C0 or C1 and be sure to get this 5 star, instead of making hundreds of wishes and not being sure to have a 4 star on C6, that does not show it's real potential - No thanks. Long story short - do not wish for specific 4 stars. Regards.
There are so many basic quality of life updates that would be so easy to implement (they could take the coding and inspo from other hoyo games) that get more and more prevalent the longer you play and see more and more people drop the game
I won baizhu at soft pity but didn't got even a single kaveh. And then when kirara was released, i didn't even tried to pull for her. And the same happened with kuki when she came first. I got her for the first time only recently from the standard banner. I still dont have kaveh lol.(╥﹏╥)
This is what gets me about people saying "don't pull for 4 stars" Like... how else am I meant to get it? On standard banner? Really?? Come on now. The only way to even feasibly try for a 4 star is when it has rateup on a banner.
They should change it to if you wish a certain amount of times on a banner, you can choose a free 4 star that's rated up. I wished almost 100 times on hutao's banner. Didn't get a single diona. She's the only 4 star I don't have
Although I agree that 4-star wishing needs to be improved, there are two a major problems with the usage of the results from the polls you and the other RUclipsrs ran. I'm only half-way through the video, so forgive me if you address these. First is that it hinges on the fact that people actually do what they say. Many gacha games (and other genres) are built around psychologically manipulating people to get them spend more. These developers aren't dumb, they've typically run their numbers and know that someone might say they don't plan to spend any money on a game, but if you push the right buttons you can trick them into doing so anyway. Second is that, even if you could demonstrate that more people would be willing to wish on banners, that doesn't necessarily translate to more money. If right now, out of 100 people, only 10 of them are pulling for 4 stars but those 10 are willing to spend 100s of wishes to get what they want then you can easily extract 1000s of wishes from them in total. If the odds were changed and people followed through and started pulling for 4stars, maybe now 90/100 will wish but maybe it only takes them 20-30 wishes. Of course that is more total wishes than the previous scenario but the real question is how many of those people then go and purchase primos/bp/welkin as a result. 20-30 probably won't bankrupt many of those players and so they might not feel the need to top off as a result. These are of course just random numbers I've made up to prove a point though, which is that more total wishing players =/= more total dollars spent.
One of my thoughts would be for them to stop giving us dupe characters after C6 and just start pivoting to the other characters on the banners. And if we cap on all of the available characters fot that particular banner, they start giving us weapon equivilents instead. There's nothing more damning than getting another constellation of a character you maxed constellation for and nothing that pulls me out of the wish system faster on subsequent banners.
I am not sure I agree with your central idea that more if more players wish then they make more money. A possible counter argument is that a certain type of player called whales is where they get most of their money who do not care how hard it is to get a specific character and will throw unlimited money to get it. So long as those players exist then Hoyo does not care about insignificant dolphins like yourself. You have your whale who may not mind spending $50k on this game but a dolphin might spend $400. You would need to attract 125 dolphins over the whale. This guarantee of a 4 star will make the whale wish less often but the dolphin more. I watch youtubers like Tenha who will throw money at a banner just to c6 a specific 4 star even if they have all other characters at c6. They will have c6 everything including the standard banner 5 stars at c6 so even if they lose 50/50 they gain nothing. It is just for that 4 star that they will wish. I do wonder how many dolphins there are compared to whales. There are certainly more dolphins but the immense spending of whales may dwarf the combined spending of the dolphins and minnows. If the entire system is designed around whales then it can make sense why they ignore the potentially higher profits from the dolphin bracket if it meant sacrificing profit from the whale bracket. What proportion of profits comes from whales? If 90% of their profit comes from whales then it might not be worth it to implement changes to attract more spending from low spenders. I do agree that I would love an epitomized path but it would not actually make me spend more money. I might wish more though but I already have nearly 400 wishes that I do not use and I have been f2p for nearly 2 years. Total money I spent on this game was maybe $80. I am nothing to Mihoyo. The only thing that could get me to spend money on this game is an endgame that requires a variety of characters to beat.
this was my first thought as well, but thinking of it more, I dont think its actually the case. I completely agree that whales make up the bulk of income and that all monetization will target them first and foremost, but I think theyre actually almost irrelevant in this particular issue BECAUSE they spent so much more than the rest of us. They're practically guaranteed to land in the large numbers bracket. Whales target 5 star c6's and will mathematically get their c6 four stars along the way. There will be outliers of course, but as the chart shows, by the time you get your c6 wanderer not having a c6 faruzan is so unlikely that the possibility is no longer worth targetting for further monetization. Assuming this is true, it means the whale money is secure no matter what they do on this matter. At which point, why not land more dolphin money on top? Even if its not whale money, its still more money and Genshin has a large enough player base that it wont be an irrelevant amount. edit: to clarify my own position here, I'm in the exact same boat as Soluna. I would be willing to spend money but I dont-because good banners have become so rare for me that I have plenty of time to save up.
The biggest trap people fall into is thinking that they actually need high con 4 stars, they're not *harder* to get, they're just harder to max out compared to getting 1 5 star.... Until you realise that most 5 stars need you to get their weapon and con 2 to reach most their potential The game is not hard enough to require high con anything to be played, it's just people not wanting to do sub optimal things in terms of numbers If you want to whale to have good every char "usable" then you already decided that you should be spending ridiculous amounts of money to get not that much, I don't see the issue with that
I would even go further and implement a similar system for the standard banner 5* because we would be more likely to spend resources (primos) in the blue fates and even use the top-up for those guaranteed "lesser" 5*. On another note, the 4* rng failed me hard in the Childe/Zhongli banners. I got both of them, a C8 Sayu, C1 Freminet and no copies of Noelle on my way to C6 her.
That last plea reminds me of how [generally] young people think about voting. Self defeating, meanwhile us old folks determine how laws are going to be written because we know it's a collective action that moves the needle.
For the polling part, I think the answer is biased as it heavily favors the players. After all, the question can be boiled down to: "Do you want this nice thing in the game?" Even most of the whales probably will answer yes. I hate how we can't guarantee 4-star characters and the lack of epitomized path for them, but the majority of players probably feel the same way. There are likely insights in MHY's data that drive their decision not to implement this feature. For example, I always wish for my desired 4-stars until I'm close to reaching the hard pity, or even go all the way if it's a character I love, like Kirara. Perhaps 4-stars wisher players like me generate more money, I'm not sure. The main point is that MHY possesses information that we do not.
I had to get 4 5* for c6 Faruzan. I wanted kokomi, that’s fine, I lost 50/50 to Keqing and Tighnari and decided to try scara because kokomi cons aren’t super worth it. It wasn’t much money I was saving for kokomi and had funds related to her ready but god did it emotionally hurt
Oh I remember back when I trying to pull for sucrose in a Venti banner. Specifically sucrose because I like her character a lot and I kinda prioritise that over good characters.. I pulled so much I got Venti instead! No Sucrose. Had to wait for the next rate-up banner :) I did get her then tho! I KNOW Venti is better as an Anemo unit and now I am glad I got him but it would have been nice to have Sucrose too...
Being able to gurantee C6 would explode the popularity of characters that scale off of their C6 like Noelle. Do you know how many people would drop money for their favorite 4 star with how badly the current system is resulting in people just waiting on a lucky stroke for the pull while wishing on a 5 star.
32:38 This isn't completely true, or incorrect perhaps, if we dwell deeper. A 40-pull guarantee system also shift the average towards lower average number required to pull from 235 here to somewhere even lower. The data also do not stack at the x=280 axis you drew there. It'll compress the bell-curve distribution with theoretical cap at the line you drew (x=280). Lastly, you should multiply the number of trials there with the amount of money they spent to reach that point (total revenue = sum(number of people who spent A pulls * number of money they've spent at A pulls). If we compare it to the data around x=280, the number should be non-negligible. As someone who play both Genshin and HI3, I know those banners with 30-pull guarantee vs 50-pull guarantee is a big big jump in the amount of pull required to complete the 4-item set. A 30-pull guarantee would give players on average around 60-70 pull to complete. While a 50-pull guarantee will give players around 120-130 pulls to complete.
With how many 4*s there are they need to just put 'em all in the shop at all times and let them be bought with primo gems directly. The RNG gacha worked fine when there weren't that many characters, but now its just agony. And its especially terrible when lots of the new 4*s are only good with constellations.
The idea of 4stars having capability of being extremely hard to aquire never really hit me. Even tho I gave myself a challenge when I started playing that I will get every 4star on their release update. Have been going strong since 1.6. Low spender
Oh god you have no idea how frustrated I am over 4*s during current banner (Neuvillette, xingqiu, Fischl, Diona). I had Xing C1, Fischl C1 and C0 Diona so I was more rolling to build pity and hope for good constellations. 35 randomly accumulated intertwined I was willing to burn for pity later i now have C6 Diona.
Early game scarred me hard in this regard... I wanted Diona... got 0 Dionas from Childe's banner but i did get a Qiqi. I wanted a Xinyan... got 0 Xinyans but i did get Zhongli. I wanted a Fischl constellation... 0 fischl cons, but two copies of Albedo😬 So yeah i wanted Kaveh, but decided against it and spend zero primos. Then i was tempted by Freminet, but again decided against it and spent nothing... I'd approve of 4 star pity for sure, as well as more 4 stars in the monthly shop.
I feel like the question is leading, as it doesn't tackle the main question. Would they be willing to PAY more?? Sure, they might be willing to wish more, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they are willing to dish out their wallets for them, since there's still the 5* pity system in place. Would they be willing to go beyond 80 wishes and risk losing their guaranteed 50/50 win?? Would they be willing to get a 5* they dont like just because they can guarantee some 4* constellations?? The single question in your poll only serves to reinforce your point whilst completely disregarding the other conditions that can deter players from wishing for 4*. If they aren't willing to go far beyond the 5* soft pity, they can easily save enough primogems in a single patch, and won't feel any need to pay out. The Epithomized Path for 5* weapons has a fundamental difference: the amount of wishes you need is HUGE, yes, they could get more money from whales with the former system, but by adding it, lower spenders would be more willing to pay to get them through the sunk cost fallacy. This doesnt translate to 4* because of the lower amount of resources needed paired with the unwillingness to risk a 5* pity. In the end, low spenders and F2P would probably only be dropping money for this system on banners with 5* they do want, which they might do regardless. So I don't think the money they can gain from this can actually outperform the amount they currently earn from whales, unless they make the pity high enough it pretty much doesn't even matter.
"Wishing more for a 4*" and "wishing more" are two different claims! You conflated them here. I want to say before continuing, I definitely want an epitomized path for 4*s (and for standard banner 5*s). Being more likely to pull for a specific 4* character doesn't directly carry over to doing more pulls overall. If someone isn't after the 5* already, they will just do the epitomized path for 4*'s during the pre-soft-pity phase of working towards a 5*. You're point that they could make the rate worse to compensate for any lost revenue in adding the guarantee is interesting and is good thinking. I'm not entirely convinced of it though. If making the rate worse makes them money, they could just do that while not adding a guarantee. A sudden change though would grab players attention simultaneously and ignite a backlash. The question is really more of what appeases players better to make them more willing to be shafted for money between having a guarantee and having a better rate. The guarantee would appease me better I think, but some people aren't very smart lol. If you had made a poll about whether people would rather have a reduced 4* rate along with a guarantee or leave things unchanged, I highly doubt it would be 90% in favor still. It would of course depend on how hard the guarantee to is to reach and how much lower the rate is.
Agreed as well. I have just reached the point where I dont pull on banners with 5-stars I dont want at all anymore because its a RNG trap and I never get the 4 star I am looking for. So to the point you made about hoyo making money on people wishing more, they actually lose more money when people refuse to wish because the risks are high with low payoffs. Shooting themselves in the foot much? I wish I saw this video before I just did my recent survey, I would have mentioned a note for them to improve chances of obtaining specific characters you want. I kinda gave up on it though so it didnt come to mind until seeing your video. Welp, guess I'll save this feedback for the next survey.
I like to try my luck on pulling for specific 4 stars that I like. When Kirara released i pulled for her specifically and in only 30 pulls I turned from a Kirara wanter into a C2 Yoimyja haver. Got Kirara not long after that but damn, that was a hype pull sessions.
I'm not done with the video so you may eventually say this, but I think it can be boiled down to this: a certain amount of "generosity" in gachas will push people to spend. Not generous enough, and the paywall will feel to large, but too generous and there's no reason to spend at all. This applied to guarantees/free pulls/whatever else you can think of. A great example was Hoyo's content creator program. I used to be part of it and would get a nice sum of primos once a month for the content I produced. Those free primos actually made me spend MORE money, I started "whaling" for the first time ever while in that program because the boost got me just close enough to being able to pull anything I wanted, that it now felt worth it to spend to close the gap. As soon as they changed their program and I stopped getting primos... I almost completely stopped spending lol. I was now too far away from the goal, the money I'd need to spend was outside of what I was willing. 4 star paths would most likely have this same effect for a lot of people. Instead of an uncountable amount of pulls you'd need, you can now calculate exactly what your worst case scenario might be. And those odds would probably make more people spend. I'm sure it would work on me LMAO
Having some background in statistics, listening to your arguments is slightly painful. Many of your assumptions are very questionable and the poll results ... I am not sure if most of the participants even had a good idea how would it affect their wishing patterns. If they really understood that the main point is, they would get more wanted 4*s at a cost of getting more unwanted 5*s. Because you can't really decouple getting 5*s from 4*s. My interpretation of the poll results is, 90+% of people would like to get the 4* of their choice when they want it, not that they would be really willing to regularly sacrifice their 5* pity for it. What I think about it is, I believe we could get such thing in the future. When, nobody knows. QoL changes are important resource and giving them to us at a slow yet steady rate is part of Hoyo's strategy to keep us playing. That also means there's no reason for them to implement too many of them too fast. But in terms of spending, I have my doubts it will have any significant effect on game's revenue, neither positive nor negative.
I heard there is a pity system on the standard banner that you cant get 3 5 star characters or weapons in a row and after 2 your guaranteed next 5 star is the other. So if they don't want to add another button to the screen but add a hidden pity system they could guarantee 1 of each featured 4 star every 40-50 wishes. This would help unlucky players but guaranteeing a 4 star you may not want could hurt lucky players going for multiple copies.
Yeah, they could actually do something like that, it'd be a sneaky way to fix the system too! Great idea that I've not seen suggested before, I honestly think its the best one of seen lol. Though I suppose it would have the potential downside of making it so you cannot get as lucky. E.g. this system wouod make a 10 pull with 5 four stars in it impossible to have all 5 be one specific 4 star since it would alternate between Sayu, Noelle, and Frem. But I'd personally be happy with the exchange of taking away the really lucky circumstances in exchange for consistency.
Oh, and fun fact, a system exists for swapping between 4 star weapon/characters on standard banner too, and it even used to exist on limited banner! Early data farming for Genshin showed that you got at least 1 weapon every 30 pulls on the limited banner (and this is still the case on standard banner), so early on it was actually even harder to get a specific 4 star because of the system guaranteeing a weapon every 30 pulls at minimum (so every 30 summons weapons would replace what could've otherwise been a character). They changed the limited banner to not guarantee 4 star weapons at some point in the past, though I dont know when (I verified with wishing data from multiple account that it doesnt happen anymore). Moral of the story is that our current system could've actually been worse had they never changed that!
maybe also add a system that lowers the chance of getting duplicates on standard banners. imagine playing for 3 years but the standard banner only ever gives u multiple skyward spine, aquila, diluc, and jean. i still dont have a single WGS/amos/lost prayer and mona at ar60. and if i didnt pull keqing in her banner i would also be missing her
Spent more trying to c6 Candace and Lynette than Childe on their rate up banners. Too be fair though I only had to pull Childe 3 times this banner. Cant pull for Nuvelette though cuz I want to gurentee Furirina. The thing that really hurts is pulling a charater when they are already c6ed and the frequency at which some charaters get the rate up. Like 4.2s banners rate up 4*s have been in the game since 1.0. C6s should be removed from the pot your account is pulling from.
Just to note. The pity system works a bit differently to this. It's simply that within 270 wishes you'll have a weapon and a character.
So on your first time around you have a 50% chance to get a weapon or a character
On your second time around, the percentages are shifted a bit but let's pretend it's still 50%
On your third time around there is still a 50% chance to get a character and if this happens then right around 260ish wishes a weapon will appear.
This basically means that you pull 3 characters in a row, the game will give you an extra 5* weapon as a bonus.
@razrafz my 2 5 stars on that were both skyward Spine. The guarantee was qiqi
It is incredibly frustrating that not only do many of the newer four star characters heavily depend on constellations to be good, they also have not added a single four star to the starglitter shop. We're still stuck at the original 12. There isn't even an anemo unit in the shop at all, or dendro. Of course there are occasional other ways to get free four stars like events, but it's nowhere near enough to be reliable for most of them.
Yeah, I initially had a section talking about the starglitter shop, but decided it was a bit off track. But adding more options to the shop could definitely also be a way to mitigate this issue! (I'd vastly prefer there being a system that guaranteed a character of your choice every 40-50 pulls though)
You get lynette for free once you reach AR 25. It's not much but it's a half step forward 😪
actually, not even all the original 4 stars are available in the starglitter shop, Sucrose and Chongyun aren't
That's a good thing,because the original 4 stars are the best by far if they added new 4 stars to the shop it will dilute the pool and we will have to wait longer to Cy them.
@@drbanemortem4155they could bump up the number available each cycle, e.g. 4 characters available at a time. unfortunately we’ll always have an issue for newer players having very limited resources (in this case starglitter) but eventually they catch up. eventually.
It’s ironic that 4 stars are meant to be “Easy to be obtain” just to get the desired/Undesired character.
Since when did Hoyo ever say that lol? The Intention is just beeing made y'all got traped in that thought. That's what they want. Lmao.
Its funny i play a gacha in which you basically get any 4 Star (it's 5 there) If you are a active player and there are so many. In Genshin there are a poop of them you can literally get them only on. A specific banner or super random in the Weapon or Standard randomly. Lol.
@@chaosinfernoid9008 Considering the fact that you get a guaranteed 4 star every 10 wishes but for a 5 star guaranteed is that you need to reach a 90 pity. If anything 4 stars ARE easier to get 5 star units but you’re still having a 50/50 chance of getting the rate up character OR the off banner character
@@serenseesitall
No that isn't right. You get a 4 Star Character when you do a Multi guaranteed, after that it's a 4 Star Weapon and then Character and Weapon. It goes like this forever. So always: Char>Weapon>Char>Weapon
This is applied to any banner no matter where you pull. Actually it does make it more "Pay2Win" If you think about it. Hoyo has some very nasty tricks into spending. I always say this same time they hate money for some reason they don't even do cheaper packs. They they making more money proves me people are stupid. And i myself felt for em too i admit that. Prolly more then 1 time. But that order of Char and then Weapon isn't enough. Then there are 4-4 Stars in the banner which means it's a 25% to obtain whatever you desire. Meaning lets say your roll for a 5 Star right? Which you should btw in the first place. Also want to get that 4 Star even If you go to guaranteed it's not guraranteed at all. Then we have to take in consideration there is a slight chance of getting the 4star-char 2 times or even 3 or 4 times If you are unrealisticly insanly lucky. The chance going higher and higher. The more you pull the more likely are you to get that desired one or even more copies is a conclusion we could say. Its rng at the end meaning If you pull much you will get to that no matter what. And you get Shop Wishes as well the more you summon. (And more wishes in general of course lol) Which in turn makes it even more p2w. They made some 4 Star the new ones normally even harder to obtain now. So F2P will suffer more in result. At the end doesn't matter though since 4 Star never matter in a gacha even Genshin. They are mostly mid-game characters which most players don't even get. Except for some Kuki in this video would be a good example. But i don't get the complains to much at the same time, like brother (or sis i guess) since If you played a game like Seven Deadly Sins Origins for example there gacha is much more worse. You need way way longer to get a 5 Star and they have NO FUCKING GUARANTEED 5 Star and all the 4 Star ar literally unusable. Genshin really is very calm and isn't as stingy as people make it to be. Ok im a Veteran Player and not F2P but i have for a long time Most 4 Star unlocked at C6 and i didn't btw summon them C6 every time or something like that. Just over time collected. But like i said even for non F2P it gets harder to collect em since you are forced to pull when they are there which is very very bad. Welp.
@@serenseesitall
Oh btw you have amazing drawing skills my sis drew me a one piece picture for my birthday it's so amazing how talented ya'all i could never! 😊
one thing, the reason they changed the weapon banners was beacuse of tectone, that episode was BAD press for them, they are really scared of bad press, if you want a change you need a few big creators make a few videos showing how bad the system is and generating that bad advertisement, just look at the first anniversary and the 1.6* in google store
p.d: another bad press event was the zhong li incident, they change him because he was a expensive unit and he was the god of liyue aka china and that cambination WAS REALLY BAD PRESS
yeah seems like they dont care unless it involves public negative outrage. hate tectone all u want but his contribution of exposing how shitty the weapon banner is very appreciated
I will never stop thinking about the fact that after 110 pulls on his banner,I didn't get a single Heizou...A pity system would have saved me
I tried to get Heizou on his 1st banner with F2P primos i had saved like 60 wishes and whatever else starglitter that gave me and failed, to this day i dont have him XD
same I am still lacking him after all these months,same also with Sayu,tho I never pulled for her because she is always on the wrong banner@@AlvaroChuquiureZadig
Funny story...
I started Kazuha's banner a while back (with heizou of course) and I had both of them at C0 going into it..
I now have a C4 Kazuha and a C3 Heizou 😐
i did 110 pulls for lynette and ended up with literally no lynettes, but i got c6 bennett
i know your pain T-T
when heizou first came out alongside kazuha, i had saved 100+ pulls for them both
i got 1 heizou, 1 kazuha, and like 11 ningguangs 😭😭
MY NINGGUANG WAS ALREADY c6!!!!
My personal horror story was how I got a c2 Wanderer before I got my FIRST Faruzan. That banner ended and I had a c4 Wanderer and a *c2* Faruzan. I had enough Yanfeis to c6 her twice, though, which is funny considering I already had her c6. It really is wild how you can go so long without your target 4* to the point you get the featured 5* THREE times before you get one copy of them.
Happened to me. I had to spend all the primogems during her debut banner just to get her to C6! I ended up with C2 Wanderer first!
My first year and a half of game play I often experienced "character/weapon fixation"; keep getting the same thing over and over. My first C6 Beidou came along without breaking a sweat. It's fine when it's a favourable character, but gosh I think I've gotten C18 Dori or more.
@@riotangel4701 oh I get you, I only got my first Diona in Shenhe's last banner while I had Xinyans and Sucroses a plenty 5 months after starting to play 🤧
I used the last Kokomi banner to get the last two constellations for Faruzan. I only got one, stopping as I was approaching soft pity, after I got Kokomi’s C1.
I never got one single faruzan on wanderers first banner, but got her later from the event. On wanderers rerun I pulled from kokomis banner and got Faruzan to c6. I also have c4 kokomi 😂 though I don't mind because Kokomi is by far my favorite and she came erly many times.
As a kaeya main, i feel this deeply. Every patch there's an even smaller chance of getting a copy of him, yes he is in the shop but he only appears two times a year!! It would take me three years to get him c6 💀
I literally spent months worth of primos on the standard banner to get his cons 😭 not the smartest idea but I did get him to c6 so it worked out lol
just double down and save for his startglitter (sincerely a c6 kaeya main who purchased all his cons but 1)
You don't get to complain, you can get him 100% guaranteed from the shop.
@@Chestyfriend i do not lmao, i spend my starglitter in things like weapons since i need them the most, and who even buys acquaint fates with primos? 😭😭😭
@@idlemobu You know he's in the shop rotation right? You can outright buy him once every couple months.
this 4-star randomness is what makes me save the pulls in case I don't want a 5-star
If you go for 4 Star you make something very wrong in the first place.
@@chaosinfernoid9008 why? you may want a 4 star more...not hard to understand
@@deathmetalalchemist5861
Simple, the most 4 Star are very dogwater level or have super niche gameplay (in a very bad way though) obviously it's not only easy to get a 5 Star but also guaranteed, for a 4 Star you can pull 1000 times still dont have the 4 Star in theory. And the other thing is 4 Star If they aren't completly new come much more often then 5 Star and you will eventually max them in the future. So its kinda pointless except you really really need something.
@@chaosinfernoid9008 i know its crazy and insane to think about but some people actually pull for characters for their personality and design regardless of power level
@@chaosinfernoid9008oh wow imagine thinking players only pull for characters just because they're "meta"
My brother have you ever heard of Klee mains?
Y'know Klee the character where the majority of players consider clunky to play and "not meta"
I did around 170 pulls on Kazuha's first rerun banner. I didn't get a single Thoma. I wasn't really pulling for him, so at the time I didn't think much about it, but in hindsight it's ridiculous that you can go so many pulls without getting even one copy of a specific four star.
That only counts for F2P which this game isn't meant to. But funny enough they made some 4Star so rare to force you into going in there which isnt a good Idea from them and will in turn make it 90% harder for F2P which obviously are still the very Most players. I realise that too how casuale most people are when i look at their characters. Funny enough this game is meant to be played i bit more then casual in my opinion. But not too much. Obviously they can't do that without literally any innovation. Fricking Star Rail getting all their Attention. Once again Honkai their favourite child. Once again tragedy.
At the end it's 4 Star though lol
Then there's me who got Thoma with a single pull on the standard banner.💀
When I was trying to get my Zhongli to C1, (hoping for future C2)(lost 50/50) I wished 100 times. I only got 1 freminet. BUT I got 5 Noelle's and 6 Sayu's. My Noelle was already C6 so the extra 5 didn't help and Sayu was already C4. I don't really plan on using or building freminet but it still would have been nice to get more in case I do decide to start using him.
its actually insane, this is me with faruzan, but when I pulled for yae C2 in her recent rerun, I got C5 kirara in only 80 pulls.
There was a similar frustration over Anemo characters. Sucrose didn’t make the initial cut into the glitter shop. That glitter shop has never been updated. Liyue is the only zone with a 4-star selector. There are no 4-star Anemo characters from Liyue. There’s no Epitomized Path for either 4-star characters or 5-star Standard characters. All of this meant that to sole way to guarantee an Anemo character was to swipe for Venti/Xiao/Kazuha/Wanderer, and that still involves gambling. Oh, the free event characters? None of them had ever been Anemo until Faruzan was winnable two patches before Lynette’s debut.
And that doesn't count because events have their own problems. I hate event exclusive stuff because anyone can miss the event for any reason.
newer events are region locked so new players have to run across the map and then have their story ruined just for the character
@@log3ckert386Honestly wish they had more events that weren't story locked because of that. I don't even want to know how many new players had their entire game spoiled just trying to do the fairly recent windblume event, for example.
Pretty sure there was a free Sayu at somepoint from an event but I may be misremembering. Your point still stands regardless.
There are many documented examples of players C6ing a new 5-star before C6ing the new 4-star on the same banner. I would like to see the Epitomized Path added to the Standard Banner as well for 4-stars. Almost no one spends money on the Standard Banner because the pool is too big for a reliable return. If you could guarantee a specific 4-star after 40 pulls then players would have a reason to convert their primos into Acquaint Fates on occasion. Lowering the number of Fates people have increases their chance to spend more to acquire more Fates for the new limited banner character.
They kind of did an epitomized path for Star Rail with a 5 star of your choice after 300 pulls. It did convince me to do a 10 pull on their standard banner every so often just to reach the 300 faster. So it clearly works in principle
One thing I would like to add is that some 4 stars only appear with specific banners, like faruzan, sara, and gorou have only appeared with wander, raiden, and itto banners, and those banners typically only rerun once a year. So it is extra difficult for people to get c6 for 4 stars like these. Which is very annoying especially since you need c6 for characters like these to unlock their full potential.
Exactly, like I don't care about any of those five stars, but I would still like to have c6 Sara for my Keqing, c6 gorou for Noelle (who is still only c2 btw :')) and c6 faruzan for Xiao/Heizou. They could easily put Sara with Yae, Gorou with Albedo and Faruzan with Xiao, but no. It's so frustrating...
Me who got c6 gorou (i like him but geo is meh and i dont have itto) when i joined back the game in 3.3 after i had to stop playing around 1.6 (that mean i had 0 gorou) on wanderer banner in at most 90 pull because I won his 50/50 and got only 1 faruzan: this is fine
i am stuck on c1 gorou (both from standard banner) as a noelle main who doesnt want itto x_x
@@idasolecka9618 I'm in the same boat! I have other electro units that could benefit from sara cons but I don't have any desire to own raiden. It sucks thinking about potentially losing my featured 50/50 use because of the system.
I feel this so much. When Kuki Shinobu originaly released, I pulled for her (she released on Ittos banner). Wasnt much of an Itto fan at the time, but still pulled. Ended up loosing my 5* 50/50, AND went to pity on Itto. Only after getting 2 5* units did i leave with a Kuki in my roster.
I really do hope they give us more control over this.
Your continued gambling even though the system sucks is the reason why the 'verse will never change a thing.
@@karenwang313 Yeah, I guess you're right, just couldn't resist her amazing design and personality. (I was f2p at the time if that changes anything) Its still nice to think about a better system though.
An addition I'd like to make is that for long time players who have perfected wish management, of my friends and I we're typically willing to go up to about thirty wishes to try at a four star.
I think there is a decent number of experienced players who are stopping after just a couple of ten pulls anyway, to preserve pity. But if we take that "I'll throw thirty wishes, just to see..." and hold it against your proposed "guaranteed after 40", it encourages just one more ten pull.
And that would have positive effects for players and Hoyo. As a player, the guaranteed four star is obviously great. As a company, Hoyo has now convinced many more players to risk pity as they go for their guarantee. That means more people will get unlucky and get the five star they don't want, making them more likely to spend money in future when there is a character they like.
Makes so much sense as the video said "Why fix something that ain't broke"
When Yanfei released I was so excited to get her. I ended up with a Keqing, Zhongli, AND (months later) Ayaka before I got a single copy.
I'm so glad I didn't have to go through that, I got my c6 yanfei and she carried me from liyue to fontain. I'm trying other exploration teams and nothing is better than my Yanfei.
I will never get over the 240 wishes it took me for 1 sampo (granted different game but same system)
In my main account, I pull around 240 too but no Sampo (on the standard banner so I can understand that)
but heck, even on Kafka banner, I got E2 Kafka, around 150 pull I still never got him. In the end he spooked me when tried to pull Fu Xuan E1.
To think that I've been put in such a place, forcing me to pull for just one copy of lower rarity, feels so weird to me till this day.
I had no Sampo on my account until I pulled Kafka and got him E6 (I lost to Kafka though, I guess it's not that hard to upgrade character to E6 when you do 160 rolls). Anyway, so far it's easier for me to get all 4 stars in HSR than in Genshin, since I started it from day one, unlike Genshin, which I started right before Sumeru release. But even in Genshin the only ones left for me to get are Gorou and Kiara
@@biggore8338 I nearly had e6 Kafka before e6 sampo 💀 I had e4 with 2 50/50 losses
Bruh took me 150 pulls just to get 1 copy of lynx.
Not going to lie, this is a really refreshing video. I like when people add numbers to their complaints because it feels like maybe they can make a difference. This is a helpful video and imo is one of your best! This is a problem that we all hope they can solve.
I was looking for someone to talk about this, and having an actual discussion on it. It took me until Lantern Rite just to obtain Chongyun, and that was only because of the whole "choose your own 4* character" event. It was a painful experience considering I wanted him since his release. To this day, he's still c0 despite my wishing on banners he has rate up on. ♡
Soluna:
I really dig the synthesis you did with this video explaining the problem, relating it to the weapon banner, and showing that it seems like it wouldn't be a net loss, but possibly a net gain for Hoyo to implement such a similar system. To answer your question posed at the end (why haven't they done this already?) I disagree that this is a case of not rocking the boat; I think you've neglected something important that Hoyo also knows with way more precision than us and through our ability to poll our own userbase.
Hoyo isn't trying to make money off the 4*-chasing pulls directly. My strong intuition is this wishing activity, which you might detect statistically by seeing which users stop wishing after reaching a C6 or certain number of the latest 4*, isn't a significantly large portion of limited banner pulls. Instead, the goal is to adjust the seasoned player population behavior. The players who have mostly exhausted the starglitter shop, have a stable of strong 5*s, and for whom chasing limited 4*s (and weapons) is the final frontier of account progress outside artifacts.
Keeping this model pushes the window of acceptability of seasoned, moderate players towards spending more money. By not having a guarantee, it makes that slice of players who achieve their 4*s goal progress without tripping over a 5* they don't want feel lucky and that their risky behavior was warranted, any money spent worth it. This lowers their inhibition to spend wishes or money they didn't budget have the next time a 4* or 5* constellation, or (horrors!) weapon is desired. Even if they get a 5* they didn't want along the way, knowing that getting a desired 4* is difficult makes that goal once reached feel ever the sweeter, and that hit of endorphins is way better than getting your guaranteed 5* you already knew was coming at wish ~75.
Even if this backfires for some unlucky seasoned players who feel disillusioned, they are in the minority. I'm sure the statistics show that many more players will get the 4*s they wanted, based on the expected values of the distribution. Those players who got what they wanted and stopped have been conditioned to take those same risks again, and reframe what is an acceptable number of pulls for a 4* going forward, and THAT is the group of paying customers Hoyo wants to retain and refine as this service game enters it's back half of development.
As others have mentioned, it would probably take a Tectone level of drama for multiple creators over a banner for them to consider changing it. Although I think us having the discussion and keeping the discussion active with their higher profile creators and bringing it up constantly in feedback _could_ influence their decision without a big event trigger... maybe, eventually. Because what they don't want is their seasoned players thinking about the numbers and strategies too analytically, they want us thinking and wishing emotionally.
I don’t have Kaveh kirara and now Freminet… because of the banners they came on.. I can’t afford to risk getting an unwanted five star. They really need to fix this. Cause those 3 characters are ones I love so much
No way that you like these characters like I am!
I feel that Hoyos base premises is not that more wishing is more money more like getting people frustrated without pissing them of to much is money. Because people that are emotional are more likely to do bad decisions like spending money they don’t have or shut.
They actually don’t want people to plan there pulls and manage there resources. What they want is people to pull mindlessly and out of emotion. We can also see that in how all the content try’s to bound the characters emotional to players.
@@QuinquetPourpre It absolutely would.
A guarantee for 4 stars would cause people to think more about how much resources they need 4 that new 4 star character or c6 him as well as planning and manage their resources better.
What is something Hoyo doesn’t want, is highly afraid of and goes completely against their business model. They want u to think I can spend a 10 pull to maybe get that 4 star than get frustrated and emotional because u didn’t got them then keep pulling until u get them without paying attention on how much resources u spend.
Therefore we will never get something like that for 4 stars no matter if it would make them more money or not.
@@darkangel999that argument is not very smart, 90% of people DO NOT wish for 4*, they wish for the 5*. Which is a direct contradiction to what you are saying since 5* DO have a hard pity, which allows you to plan your wishes.
It also further contradicts the fact that the weapon banner also has a hard pity system which it didn't have before. Tectone case with Homa is really a golden example of what you're talking about an how hoyo did exactly what you said they wouldn't do.
No, your argument doesn't makes sense.
@@lXlDarKSuoLlXl I think you underestimate how much people pull on banners to get 4 stars. I already pulled on a banner just to get Candace, got Yae by accident while pulling for a 4 star (think it was to get Layla), resonantly got wanderer and c1 kokomi only because I wanted to c6 Faruzan. Also I know a lot of people that did similar things.
The 5 star pity is an hole other story because it could be considered gambling in china and a few other country’s if they don’t had one. Regarding to the weapon banner pity system it most likely is the same as more and more attention got to that topic they were afraid to be classified as gambling in some country’s by law and changed it to play on the save side.
@@lXlDarKSuoLlXl I think you underestimate how much people pull on banners to get 4 stars. I already pulled on a banner just to get Candace, got Yae by accident while pulling for a 4 star (think it was to get Layla), resonantly got wanderer and c1 kokomi only because I wanted to c6 Faruzan. Also I know a lot of people that did similar things.
The 5 star pity is an hole other story because it could be considered gambling in china and a few other country’s if they don’t had one. Regarding to the weapon banner pity system it most likely is the same as more and more attention got to that topic they were afraid to be classified as gambling in some country’s by law and changed it to play on the save side.
@@darkangel999I underestimate how much people wish for 4* because that's what the numbers say literally, people don't wish for 4* in general, most do the "building pity" thing but that's just gambling addiction.
Gacha is already gambling, gacha is the name of machines that ARE used in gambling centers. Being "classified" as gambling isn't that mystic man, you just need to give real money in return and viola, you are classified as "real" gambling, that's how pachinko machines dodge regulations. Just because it isn't "classified" by law as gambling doesn't means it ISN'T gambling, gachas are literally soft gambling.
Oh and they didn't change the weapons banner because of that. But nice try tho.
Absolutely true, I also would wish they implemented a similar system to the standard banner. 4 stars are supposed to be like easily accessible and beginner friendly but it's damn near impossible to get the ones you want. You dont wanna pull on the limited banner if you dont want the 5 stars and also there's no telling how much you need to spend to just get one copy of the 4 star. On top of that you can wait for months for the specific four star to be featured. So what can you do? You get a tiny amount of blue wishes for free (which i have no idea why) and the pool of shit characters is quite large. It doesnt make any sense to buy more stadard fates because they cost the same and are much much worse value. You can only wait and hope that the 5 star on the banner will also be the one you want or that you will get the 4 star early and not ruin your pity. Me and my brother are both ar 55 (me almost 56) and neither of us has Sucrose or Kuki for example. I wouldnt even have Fischl yet if i didnt buy her from the shop.
It’s really bad considering that Amber, Kaeya, and Lisa do *not* have a relative rate-up in that banner. So each new 4-star character drops the odds of getting them.
Yup i got a c3 wanderer a tighnari a mona and a kokomi trying to get 4 faruzans cons for c6
I used 22k primos tho so i got lucky with the 5 stars WAY before pity blew up my furina savings😢 getting back there rn
The Epitomized Path in my head had you get the target in the third try, but only counting the wrong rate-ups as tries. Weapons and random characters wouldn’t count. This puts the hard limit at 60 wishes.
On Tartaglia's banner, I actually pulled 5 copies, YES 5 COPIES OF TARTAGLIA WITHOUT GETTING EVEN ONE Freminet it was the craziest thing that's ever happened to me. But I have a feeling it happens more often than it should. They definitely place the shiny new 4* on rerun banners like these to incentivize people who already have ZL/Childe to pull anyways. I would imagine people who aren't Childe mains like me would be fuming if they got him to C5 before getting one Freminet lol. Well, at least I was pulling for C6 anyways.
When the game came out I really wanted cons for my Noelle and I got c1 Klee before I ever got a Noelle. I like Klee so it was cool, but still kind of absurd
bro you are so lucky to get c5 childe, took me 151 pulls to get zhongli and i got c5 freminet
As someone who went for C4 Lynette and actually got her, man it was terrifying risking my guaranteed with each x10, it was ~50/60 pulls in total, Im not doing this again any time soon lol
congrats you got cons for a character who is still lower than mediocre at con 0 or con 6
@@escapetherace1943 Genshin players: just pull for who you like lol
Also Genshin players when I spend my hard earned primos on cons of a character I like playing instead of being a sheep and keep pulling for new characters like 90% of the players: lmao youre so wrong, might as well just kill yourself
You just cannot win I guess...
Just for you know, Lynnette burgeon with Dehya is fun as fuck and I already cleared abyss with it it, now, if you cant think by yourself on how to use characters and just follow theorycrafters' "orders", thats not my problem.
@@escapetherace1943 do you realize not everyone is a metaslave
@@grapekork101 you do realize Lynette's cons do literally NOTHING.
lol. lmao, even.
@@escapetherace1943 Funny how they dont care, they pulled cause they like her, not cause they worry about what her cons do
When kokomi/scara banner arrived, I wasn't really looking for either of them (already had scara) however my faruzan was still c5. So I knew I wouldn't mind a kokomi but as soon as I got faruzan I was going to get out of there.
You know what happened? I spent 70 wishes on koko banner and won 50/50 and got her. No faruzan. I desperately wanted that c6 so I went to scara banner. I spent another 50 wishes and got a keqing con. Still no faruzan. After that I stopped (yay guaranteed childe!) but it's beyond frustrating that I can get 2 five stars before the ONE FOUR STAR I was looking for.
It's a good idea but it's like a bandaid for the real issue, 4* characters that are SO heavily reliant on constellations to be "complete" or rather, "useful".
But asking hoyo to not make those kind of characters would "hurt their bottom line", it'd be like asking the game industry to make complete games with no microtransactions, it's a fools errand. Specially so considering this is a gacha that depends so heavily on preying on your wallet. 😂
I freaking hate seeing constellation in genshin.
I'm starting to have a bad feeling that Genshin is intentionally leaving the game with huge flaws for old players so they just keep a revolving door of players instead of fixing anything. Whether it's combat, story or the gacha, the game feels more and more uninterested in dealing with issues old players have
exactly, because they absolutely can fix those issues but leave it so that there's always some new sucker whos going to fall for it
That thumbnail felt like getting shot in the bawls ... i used 90 wishes to get Faruzan Constellations on her last rerun and only got one Faruzan copy 💀
When Cyno/Candace's banner was released a year ago, I really wanted to get Candace as well as Cyno...and I ended up with a c2 Cyno before I got a c0 Candace
That’s funny I got the opposite. I got c3 Candace and didn’t get Cyno :(
Great vid Sol! I agree with 90% of the video, however I dont see this realistically happening. Although they do make style of life changes every now and then ive never seen them make a dramatic change that actually changes a core mechanic in the game. (besides weapon banner which is still a scam). Like you said "if it aint broke dont fix it" is the hoyoverse mentality
Yeah, math wise I just don't think there is any reason for them not to fix it. But yeah, they are so change averse I don't necessarily expect it. This video is my best attempt at least trying to make it have a chance of being more likely.
As a F2P player who is also in a similar situation with my account, I'd like to share my own experience because I think it supports this video.
I pretty much always pull until I get the limited 5 star I want and immediately stop. Because of this I've had a surplus of fates for a long time but the only times I broke my rule of immediately stopping after getting the 5 star I wanted were on Wanderer's first banner, where I kept going to try to get more Faruzan cons (she was only C2), but ended up stopping a few pulls later when I got very lucky and rolled a 2nd Wanderer followed by a Keqing, at which point I decided to just save my guarantee for the next character. I then broke my rule again for Wanderer's second banner where I pulled, despite already having both Wanderer and Kokomi, once again in hopes of getting some Faruzan cons, but stopped once I hit 74 pity with 0 Faruzans in sight, to save my pity for Lyney.
I can definitely see myself having gone for a few more pulls if there was a 4 star epitomized path and I was just a little off from the next Faruzan con and already had a few more cons in general from the previous epitomized paths. Instead, I went into Fontaine and got Lyney in 1 ten pull and now have enough primos for Neuvilette and Furina and then some so I don't think Hoyo can break my F2P streak.
It´s not only the 4 star characters system that´s bringing their business down, it´s also their lack of interests about endgame players, after you get to AR 55+ you probably already beat every abyss 36 stars, you already have the 5 stars you want and the game has simply 0 challenge or incentive for you to keep wishing for anything, if you like the story you can keep coming back to follow the archon quests and that´s it.
I'm glad I stopped taking this game seriously months ago. It's the last game I play so I just use it to fill in empty time and level what I got and it's much more comfortable that way. Would definitely be nice if they made it easier to acquire and level other characters so at least I can experiment with the many different playstyles, but the RNG and resource-deprivation mechanics is ridiculous.
As someone who went for C4 Lynette and actually got her, man it was terrifying risking my guaranteed with each x10, it was ~50/60 pulls in total, Im not doing this again any time soon lol
42:00 the only definitive way HOYO will listen is if both CN and global community can agree on something to fix and THEN use our money to let them know. by not spending on a banner for the 1st week or something. but that won't happen cause whales and cc's need to make money from videos and people need the character NOW.
some of the fixes and changes that players are asking for, as just a few lines of code. it should not take them so long to initiate small fixes. (based on several friends/YT that are in game production and play the game, so this is an extremely small sample size/opinion and could be wrong).
Genshin is basically the middle child, used to fund the eldest and younger siblings/projects
edit: also i think all the people who are wanting change, they just quit and HOYO just looks at the newer players to make up the deficit. nearly alot of changes are geared toward making the newer player experience better. think HOYO doesnt mind they quit, esp when they just go to another HOYO game that has the features they want. HSR has a lot of the QOL that people want in Genshin and people are always comparing them
I totally gave up wishing for 4 stars I wanted since the Sara acident. Getting C2 Raiden when I didn't like or want Raiden shogun and for these around 200 saved wishes didn't get even 1 Sara was too much for me
The things is that ppl stopped asking for changes coz most of they stopped playing the game, ppl that play at launch are not playing anymore, so most of the player base play casually and most error and fixes are noticeable after ar 53 - 55 and by that time most of those spent a little and left and then maybe come back later who knows but never will acknowledged the problems we are strugling with, so yes i been playing since day 1 and i used to ask for things on surverys and i dont do anymore coz the only thing they updated for a lot of time was the Teapot, then came the TCG and while its nice and all no one ever asked for that, etc so why keep asking for changes that never come? so theres 2 options quit or keep playing accepting the game as it is and most of but should I say little of us who still play have stopped filling the survers or sending tickets coz as long as 1.They keep making money 2.That player base that gives them money is Casual. -- We will never have enough pressure to call for change -- When: 1.the game is goin down views and sales (or when it goes low enough) or 2.theres a direct game that competes and becomes the next gaccha If this 2 requisites are met they will have to innovate and change (1 already happening), otherwise they wont. The moment other game steals they're player base they will have to improve but as it is now they are cannibalizing their own games so they keep the profit - tho Star Rail is not as successful as Genshin was.
So thats why some ppl say it doesnt matter what we say or not coz we have been asking for things for at least 2.5 years :v,. Im cool with things as they are (i do believe the rewards for anniversary are so lackluster but what's new? xD) I'm waiting 👀 also if Hoyoverse hears anyone is their China audience.
I heavily agree with everything except for the last part:
Hoyo listening to very few out of hundreds of demands and feedbacks doesn't mean Hoyo listens, it means they listen 1% of the time. When Dehya got released literally everyone and their mothers wanted her to get buffed and despite support telling players that they are working on it they haven't done anything for and probably will never do because she isn't from the Genshinese China.
Thanks to @Kekvin www.youtube.com/@esqpur/ and @esqpur www.youtube.com/@esqpur/ for doing those polls for me! Check them out!
And of course checkout TenTen's video too! ruclips.net/video/pTs-_qqDUJI/видео.html
I want to further clarify the simulated data from TenTen in the video. TenTen didn't factor in soft pity for 4 stars, which makes it more likely to get a 4 star before the guaranteed four star on the 10th summon. Now, I know this exists, but when I was trying to find data on the exact chances for four stars factoring soft pity in, I couldn't find good sources, so I couldn't even try to simulate something myself with soft pity. Overall though, it was unimportant to what I was trying to illustrate in this video, as the point was just using data that would look similar to the real world in order to illustrate how Hoyo can make a guarantee system balanced to cutoff outliers wherever they see fit. I could've technically just drawn my own curve to illustrate the point I made, but I wanted to use something more close to reality, which TenTen's simulated data still was. All I did was compare a hypothetical system in the context of TenTen's data, so the real average wasn't important for making a comparitive illustration on stastitics in general. It would be important if we were actually drawing specific estimates to money Hoyoverse makes, but that is not the point of this video. The real world data, due to the soft pity system, would look the same as the simulated curve from TenTen, but with the peak of the curve shifted slightly left on the X axis. It does not change the comparitive illustration I was trying to make, but would make it more likely for Hoyoverse to implement a hypothetical guarantee system closer to my dream of 40 summons to guarantee a specific 4 star character.
Anyhow, I still got a bit off script at points, in case it wasn't obvious. Hope you enjoyed watching this video, it is probably the most work I have put into any video I have made. Next week should be something more fun, since I do prefer having fun playing Genshin rather than writing 6000 words about something that makes me sad, believe it or not!
For the 4s soft pity i have seen this video by @Vidmiloo: ruclips.net/video/wwW12uQLCiw/видео.html
I'm not sure if what he shows is true, since i don't know the source of this info, but it seems to make sense.
Also, I get your point (and i agree), but the reasoning at 30:00 isn't really correct.
It would be correct for a single copy of the character, but with multiple it's a bit more complicated.
What happens is that the interval between two copies can never exceed 40, so a lot of people before the 280 mark would also take less pulls, for example:
if someone gets their copies at (80, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30) for a total of 260 pulls, it would become (40, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30), for a total of 220.
And for the majority of people over 280, they would need less than 280, for ex:
(80, 30, 30, 120, 30, 30, 30), total 350 -> (40, 30, 30, 40, 30, 30, 30), total 230.
The only way for someone to get 280 would be to get to hard pity every time, which would be extremely unlikely.
I think the result would be for the entire curvbe to be pulled to the left, with the samples that were above 280 being redistributed mostly along the latter parts of the curve. That is more pessimistic than what you show, but i think that the main point of the video still stands.
(if you want i could also make a python script to see the before and after, as well as estimating how much money they would lose from implementing something like this. I have fun doing stupid shit like this)
I made a script way back to get an exact probability distribution without simulating many trials (I manipulate the probability distribution itself, and not sample from it).
Your 40 pull dream is hard to pull off without changing other numbers like the 50% rate up, or maintaining the pool of three rate up characters. The closest I came up with (maintaining the average) is a guarantee every 70 pulls, but I lowered the base rate of obtaining 4 stars to 1.7%. Soft and hard pity are still at wish 9 and 10 respectively.
Edit: another configuration
1.8% base rate, 33.33% rate up, guarantee on 6th 4 star (60 pulls max). (Note that a lower rate up percent isn't that bad since a non-rate up pull guarantees the next pull to be a rate up. This would have saved me from being Kuki-less with a C1 Itto 😭)
Edit2: If hoyoverse is generous enough to just guarantee a specific 4 star on the 6th proc, the average pulls to get a 4 star would be around 1 in 27.3 pulls.
i’ve been playing genshin since may, so i’m not a long term player just yet, but hyperfixation go brrr and i sped through the entire game up until that point in about two weeks, and i’m currently at ar 56. despite my ar being pretty damn high, being at world level 8, having a fair amount of 5 star characters now, and one 5 star weapon, i still don’t have razor, sucrose, shinobu, ningguang and candace, 4 star characters that i really want. especially razor, because he’s one of my favourite characters, and shinobu because she’s just really good and i like her. it also took me until lyney’s banner to get bennett, i ended up having to get xingqiu with my starglitter from my (weirdly successful) childe and zhongli pulls, and it took until neuvilette’s banner to finally get fischl.
it’s honestly getting ridiculous and i felt like i was at a huge disadvantage due to not having bennett for ages. at least shinobu will be on cyno’s banner, since i’m using my guarantee to get him, but standard banner really doesn’t want me to have my boy razor for some reason. it’s really frustrating.
also i’m still annoyed that i got like 8 rosarias when wishing for wanderer, who’s been my main since i got him, but i still only have c1 faruzan and c0 yanfei. pain.
They need to fix weapon banner too, there's a reason everyone calls it a scam.
The "bad luck protection" on weapon banner might as well not even exist. On average by the time you've failed to get your weapon of choice two times, you've used over *200* wishes ($400 USD) and that's just to *unlock* the pity mechanic. Then you have to pull again for the 75% chance you get your weapon, note that this is *never* 100% like character banner.
I wanted Neuvillette's weapon, it took me, no kidding, 260 wishes to get his weapon. 260. Utterly mental.
I would love to see the true Genshin data about how many people turn primos into resin.
I know a couple friends that are wealthy enough to just go for top-ups instead of relying on per patch primogem count.
But in general I strongly agree that we need some kind of epitomed path for 4 stars. I have a cautionary tale where I wanted Dionas C6 and got both Ayaka and Shenhe losing both 50/50s and I didn't get a single Diona.
I'm livid I can't wish in this current banner anymore because both Zhongli and Tartaglias C1's have a very low priority for my account. But I really, really want Noelles C6 😢😢
I’ve been trying to get Diluc for three years, and it’s so infuriating that I’ve nearly c6d the other standard 5 stars. I wished there was a path for standard 5 stars on event banners just in case, or something like that on standard.
I liked this. I think part of the issue, at least to me is first people don't know WHERE or how to file a .. compliant? Suggestion? something. and compliancy of the community. things change yes, but most people gave up.
I bileve that the devs created the game and was very surprised by how much money it made them and now they are so scared about changing anything about the game.
Day one F2P here. This video is very relateable to me. This is why I don't bother acquiring for the latest 4*, I'd ended up with other 4* beside the advertised one anyway. I realised this way back and just never pull unless it's the 5* that I want and I'm not bothered by what 4* I acquire at that point. Truth is the 4* I only use are from Mondstadt and Liyue for my team, I don't feel 4* from Inazuma, Sumeru and Fontaine are as good as those from Mondstadt and Liyue. That, or I am no longer bothered to use the latest 4*. I benched them all, only for their friendship level and Acquint Fate. The 4* selector didn't help much as they focus only Liyue character so far.
i get the point but why are two of my best mains in the thumbnail lol /lh
i’m kind of annoyed that i had to go to pity and get shenhe and still didn’t get mika at the end, but i don’t think hoyo will ever fix this. i really don’t believe they don’t know of this, and they already did this for the weapon banner, so they would have done it already if they wanted to
(how many times am i going to add on to this lmao)
i got 3 5*s getting c6 faruzan, and although i did get a little lucky and i needed all the characters, that is still a lot
Haha Frem just because he's recent and Faruzan because a number of people may have pulled more on a banner just for her cons, and she had a nice snooty pose for the thumbnail lol
Just about a week ago I was trying to pull for Freminet a little bit on Zhongli’s banner. I got 4 Sayus and a Zhongli at 22 pity. I’m glad I got such an early 5 star but still a little disappointed that Freminet just doesn’t like me I guess 😂
280 pulls and only a single faruzan on the previous wanderer/kokomi banner.
It was my only chance to really get faruzan too, because I don’t want wanderer and he probably won’t run with a character I want constellations of in a long while.. Was so painful to scroll through my friend’s list and see somebody whale and get both at c6.
Have also done 180 pulls for diona but only a single copy, and faruzan and diona are the only 4 star cons that I really want :’)
I'd be glad if they added the 4 stars to the starglitter shop after a period of time, like a year, but I doubt that'd earn hoyo much
I've gotten 5-stars and cons as a side consequence of trying to cons certain 4-stars. Currently at least this year I've been incredibly lucky with 5-stars.
Suspect they leave the system as is because with their ver 3 4-star design philosophy - make them feel incomplete or unplayable unless certain cons obtained - players would keep throwing in the wishes. And their actual data likely showing that to be the case.
AGREED. I feel you. For me, even just one copy of a 4 star character is SO HARD to obtain. I've experienced few times where I spend so much wishes just to get C0, like around 80 wishes for C0 Candace, 60 wishes for C0 Layla also C0 Kirara, and now with Freminet which I haven't even get his C0 yet. I've pulled around more than 60 wishes and still no C0 Freminet. I've just lost my guarantee to Zhongli cons while trying to get C0 Freminet. 😭
I'm REALLY tired of getting suckered out of so many primos and a good amount of money hoping to get at LEAST a C3-C4 4 star character and somehow ending up with ONE.
Tried to get Heizou C6 on his rerun? Ended up getting C4 Kazuha when I didn't even have constellations for him to begin with! And I only ended up with a C3 Heizou after that many rolls!!
And just recently I rolled to try and get C6 Freminet... I've spent close to 150 dollars and I've gone through a total of roughly 160 wishes and I only got TWO OF HIM.
Something has to change, like the weapon banner did.
on my f2p account i spent about 150 wishes for a single copy of xiangling (she was in the glitter shop at the time and i needed 2 copies to upgrade her from the sorry c2 state she was in for years to her c4 state where she becomes a useable unit and i stand by it that pre c3 Xiangling is hypercope, c3 is sophisticated malding and only at c4 shes actually completely useable) so i needed one from the convenient banner she was on at the time especally since this was the infamous permafreeze abyss with cryo heralds in 12-1
i was on garuanteed and like 60 pity but being a kazuha haver for soo long on my main account i was fine with getting kazuha but i kept getting heizous and yaoyaos. another frenzy and a keqing later still no xiangling at around 55 pity (i had no sense of how many pulls it were) i cooled down and waited till my history updated and the x10 after i finally got the last copy of xiangling i needed
after a glorious ~150 of my saved up pulls spent (i was fine with kazuha and still am in hindsight of neuvilette and the zhongli i was garuanteed i still made the most out of it but man a pity system couldve came in clutch even one as archaic as after 5 4*s that arent your desired one you get the one you want garuanteed which would mean assuming average luck youd at least get one copy of your desired 4* garuanteed per 5* pulled
It would be great if you could select a 4* for a higher chance on the standard banner at least, like in PGR. Or exchange 5 stellar fortunas of pulls you already have c6 for one con on a 4* of your choosing. Getting new 4*s on high con is absolutel miserable.
I payed to try to get more Beidou cons, because i fell in love on her first banner - that's Childe's. I payed for her on Childe's, later on Xiao's banner too, only to get c3 beidou. I bought her in the shop twice and only got her c6 a whole year after i first got her and that was when there were fewer 4*s in the game.
Awesome video but there is a problem on the frase "if you would get this data from players it would be about the same", the problem is bias, the people who would provide said data is probably mad that they didn't got what they wanted, and wanted to prove you're theory.
Another thing that i find funny funny is when content creators make pols, its such a niche audience, (genshin player, speaks english, watches genshin content, mid to late game, understands the game's mechanics currencies meta etc) its not anyone's fault, you cant access the average genshin player online bc they're probably not online.
Also, hoyo wont add the path to 4* bc they don't want to make the wishing system even more complicated for new players it already took 5 min for you to explain. Adding the 4* to the shop would be better i think.
Not only are they hard to get, theyre also increasingly niche, increasingly dependent on constellations to fix problems they have, and keep on being weaker than units that have been around forever that everybody has c6 by now.
the pulling aspect doesn't really matter after you play for awhile.. you only need 8 heavily invested in chars. I have over 15 chars that i really like and i dont get to use half of them. The biggest complaint most non-invested players have is the banners/gacha system but if you're actually playing as a veteran at some point you stop even caring about pulls as much
Seeing Fischl reminded me that I had to buy her 6th cons the last time she appeared on the shop cuz she was still at c5... Im a 1.0 player
Bruh
Same boat but I'm still at c4 :'))
I am a 3.4 player and I had to wait 6 months to buy her with starglitter. Yelan ran twice in the meantime...
@@abbystafford7549 keep in mind she was given for free twice since 1.0, I was suppose to be at c4 now if it wasnt because of that.
While I agree the that something like this should be implemented (just recently spent 250 wishes and only obtained 5 faruzan for myself) , I think you are missing an important reason why it isn't necessarily better for hoyo in terms of making money, and that is that primos/wishes become more expensive the deeper into the banner you go. F2P/welkin players can save 100-200 wishes by saving for a couple of patches, but if you want to drop 300-500 wishes needed to get that C6 4 star you want if you are slightly unlucky you probably have to spend the outrageous price on the crystal packs, which get even worse once you use the first time bonus. So the distribution of money spent isn't exactly in line with total wishes on the banner, and grows sharply towards the unlucky outlier tail of the distribution.
it really is a problem cause i really wanted freminet with my zhongli
over 120 saved f2p wishes and not a single freminet, but i did get c2 zhongli and a diluc (seems like a whin but i would've preferred a freminet rather than the other two four stars i already have c6 of)
I joined in 1.3 at the end of xiao's banner and pulled for childe in his first rerun. Im not a fan of fischl but I did want rosaria who was on his banner. I reached 8- ish almost 90 pulls before I was able to pull childe and rosaria. I was happy I did not get fischl. It was not until xiao's lantern rite rerun the following year where I was pulling for his weapon did I pull her. If my account was my friend's who mained her im sure she would have been devastated. I did spend alot of money pulling prior and was able to get all of the 5 star standard banner characters 4 months prior to getting my first fischl.
Thanks to @Kekvin and @Engineering Plastics for doing those polls for me! Check them out!
And of course checkout TenTen! ruclips.net/video/pTs-_qqDUJI/видео.html
I want to further clarify the simulated data from TenTen in the video. TenTen didn't factor in soft pity for 4 stars, which makes it more likely to get a 4 star before the guaranteed four star on the 10th summon. Now, I know this exists, but when I was trying to find data on the exact chances for four stars factoring soft pity in, I couldn't find good sources, so I couldn't even try to simulate something myself with soft pity. Overall though, it was unimportant to what I was trying to illustrate in this video, as the point was just using data that would look similar to the real world in order to illustrate how Hoyo can make a guarantee system balanced to cutoff outliers wherever they see fit. I could've technically just drawn my own curve to illustrate the point I made, but I wanted to use something more close to reality, which TenTen's simulated data still was. All I did was compare a hypothetical system in the context of TenTen's data, so the real average wasn't important for making a comparitive illustration on stastitics in general. It would be important if we were actually drawing specific estimates to money Hoyoverse makes, but that is not the point of this video. The real world data, due to the soft pity system, would look the same as the simulated curve from TenTen, but with the peak of the curve shifted slightly left on the X axis. It does not change the comparitive illustration I was trying to make, but would make it more likely for Hoyoverse to implement a hypothetical guarantee system closer to my dream of 40 summons to guarantee a specific 4 star character.
Anyhow, I still got a bit off script at points, in case it wasn't obvious. Hope you enjoyed watching this video, it is probably the most work I have put into any video I have made. Next week should be something more fun, since I do prefer having fun playing Genshin rather than writing 6000 words about something that makes me sad, believe it or not!
Let's not forget the guarantee is the psychological trap of the entire system. If it was a "real" lottery nobody would whale, instead everybody would wish with a "budget" in mind.
Why have one trap if you can have two?
Yeah, I maybe should have mentioned outright how a 4* guarantee system is likely to make people make worse decisions (risking getting 5 stars you dont need), which can further serve to monetarily benefit hoyo. But I decided that was inherently just a derivation of the basic "more wishing = more money for hoyo" point I already spent a bunch of time talking about
Got my C6 Amber yesterday from the shop, I was so happy. I remember wanting to C6 her 35 months ago and now my wish is finally granted.
Great vid and I think, especially newer players should watch this video along with other vids, that display the real probabilities of wishing in GI (e.g. Vidmilo did great pieces on character an weapon banners). Now my experiences:
Background: Startet in 1.0 as a low spender, but bought Welkin Moon and Battle Pass. Spend for Xiao when he came out and his weapon, so I was a tiny dolphin. I always wanted C1 Sucrose, since I think she is a great char.
First time wished on her on the 1.2 Albedo banner, which was sensible, since Fischl and Bennett where on it too. Then wished again on 1.4 Venti banner for her. I now have Albedo and Venti. Fischl and Bennet are on C6...... and Sucrose? She is on C0! Two Banners wished until the 5 stars came and even further, for only one Sucrose!
This was the time I swore to myself, to never wish on a 4 star again (I know this was an outlier, but this does not help me...). Furthermore it was conducive to my GI burnout, so I stopped in 1.5 or 1.6. I just came back to the second half of 4.0. In that time no Welkin Moon, no Battle Pass and no slight spending on chars I would have wanted, and trust me, there are some I really want now.... I think Mihoyo lost money with that on me...
When I see the trend now, that some 4 stars seem to need C6 (e.g. Faruzan or Sara) I can only laugh. I will never pull for them! I can go for Kazuha C0 or C1 and be sure to get this 5 star, instead of making hundreds of wishes and not being sure to have a 4 star on C6, that does not show it's real potential - No thanks.
Long story short - do not wish for specific 4 stars. Regards.
Vidmilos videos are great!
There is a system already in the game. It is the starglitter system. Sadily they don't use it nor do they update it with new characters. No idea why.
There are so many basic quality of life updates that would be so easy to implement (they could take the coding and inspo from other hoyo games) that get more and more prevalent the longer you play and see more and more people drop the game
I won baizhu at soft pity but didn't got even a single kaveh. And then when kirara was released, i didn't even tried to pull for her. And the same happened with kuki when she came first. I got her for the first time only recently from the standard banner. I still dont have kaveh lol.(╥﹏╥)
This is what gets me about people saying "don't pull for 4 stars"
Like... how else am I meant to get it? On standard banner? Really?? Come on now.
The only way to even feasibly try for a 4 star is when it has rateup on a banner.
They should change it to if you wish a certain amount of times on a banner, you can choose a free 4 star that's rated up.
I wished almost 100 times on hutao's banner. Didn't get a single diona. She's the only 4 star I don't have
i swear all the times that'd be good for me (specifically, ik there's better options) have a xingqiu GIVE ME BOOK BOY NOW
But Mihoyo would get more money up front the way you have it, but in the long run, if people have the characters they want they wont spend.
Although I agree that 4-star wishing needs to be improved, there are two a major problems with the usage of the results from the polls you and the other RUclipsrs ran. I'm only half-way through the video, so forgive me if you address these.
First is that it hinges on the fact that people actually do what they say. Many gacha games (and other genres) are built around psychologically manipulating people to get them spend more. These developers aren't dumb, they've typically run their numbers and know that someone might say they don't plan to spend any money on a game, but if you push the right buttons you can trick them into doing so anyway.
Second is that, even if you could demonstrate that more people would be willing to wish on banners, that doesn't necessarily translate to more money. If right now, out of 100 people, only 10 of them are pulling for 4 stars but those 10 are willing to spend 100s of wishes to get what they want then you can easily extract 1000s of wishes from them in total. If the odds were changed and people followed through and started pulling for 4stars, maybe now 90/100 will wish but maybe it only takes them 20-30 wishes. Of course that is more total wishes than the previous scenario but the real question is how many of those people then go and purchase primos/bp/welkin as a result. 20-30 probably won't bankrupt many of those players and so they might not feel the need to top off as a result.
These are of course just random numbers I've made up to prove a point though, which is that more total wishing players =/= more total dollars spent.
Basically 4 stars are gambling but getting cons for the starters is real gambling. Somehow I have c2 lisa and c1 kayea and I didn't gamble
One of my thoughts would be for them to stop giving us dupe characters after C6 and just start pivoting to the other characters on the banners. And if we cap on all of the available characters fot that particular banner, they start giving us weapon equivilents instead.
There's nothing more damning than getting another constellation of a character you maxed constellation for and nothing that pulls me out of the wish system faster on subsequent banners.
I am not sure I agree with your central idea that more if more players wish then they make more money. A possible counter argument is that a certain type of player called whales is where they get most of their money who do not care how hard it is to get a specific character and will throw unlimited money to get it. So long as those players exist then Hoyo does not care about insignificant dolphins like yourself.
You have your whale who may not mind spending $50k on this game but a dolphin might spend $400. You would need to attract 125 dolphins over the whale. This guarantee of a 4 star will make the whale wish less often but the dolphin more. I watch youtubers like Tenha who will throw money at a banner just to c6 a specific 4 star even if they have all other characters at c6. They will have c6 everything including the standard banner 5 stars at c6 so even if they lose 50/50 they gain nothing. It is just for that 4 star that they will wish.
I do wonder how many dolphins there are compared to whales. There are certainly more dolphins but the immense spending of whales may dwarf the combined spending of the dolphins and minnows. If the entire system is designed around whales then it can make sense why they ignore the potentially higher profits from the dolphin bracket if it meant sacrificing profit from the whale bracket.
What proportion of profits comes from whales? If 90% of their profit comes from whales then it might not be worth it to implement changes to attract more spending from low spenders.
I do agree that I would love an epitomized path but it would not actually make me spend more money. I might wish more though but I already have nearly 400 wishes that I do not use and I have been f2p for nearly 2 years. Total money I spent on this game was maybe $80. I am nothing to Mihoyo. The only thing that could get me to spend money on this game is an endgame that requires a variety of characters to beat.
this was my first thought as well, but thinking of it more, I dont think its actually the case.
I completely agree that whales make up the bulk of income and that all monetization will target them first and foremost, but I think theyre actually almost irrelevant in this particular issue BECAUSE they spent so much more than the rest of us. They're practically guaranteed to land in the large numbers bracket. Whales target 5 star c6's and will mathematically get their c6 four stars along the way. There will be outliers of course, but as the chart shows, by the time you get your c6 wanderer not having a c6 faruzan is so unlikely that the possibility is no longer worth targetting for further monetization.
Assuming this is true, it means the whale money is secure no matter what they do on this matter. At which point, why not land more dolphin money on top? Even if its not whale money, its still more money and Genshin has a large enough player base that it wont be an irrelevant amount.
edit: to clarify my own position here, I'm in the exact same boat as Soluna. I would be willing to spend money but I dont-because good banners have become so rare for me that I have plenty of time to save up.
The biggest trap people fall into is thinking that they actually need high con 4 stars, they're not *harder* to get, they're just harder to max out compared to getting 1 5 star.... Until you realise that most 5 stars need you to get their weapon and con 2 to reach most their potential
The game is not hard enough to require high con anything to be played, it's just people not wanting to do sub optimal things in terms of numbers
If you want to whale to have good every char "usable" then you already decided that you should be spending ridiculous amounts of money to get not that much, I don't see the issue with that
I would even go further and implement a similar system for the standard banner 5* because we would be more likely to spend resources (primos) in the blue fates and even use the top-up for those guaranteed "lesser" 5*. On another note, the 4* rng failed me hard in the Childe/Zhongli banners. I got both of them, a C8 Sayu, C1 Freminet and no copies of Noelle on my way to C6 her.
That last plea reminds me of how [generally] young people think about voting. Self defeating, meanwhile us old folks determine how laws are going to be written because we know it's a collective action that moves the needle.
For the polling part, I think the answer is biased as it heavily favors the players. After all, the question can be boiled down to: "Do you want this nice thing in the game?" Even most of the whales probably will answer yes.
I hate how we can't guarantee 4-star characters and the lack of epitomized path for them, but the majority of players probably feel the same way. There are likely insights in MHY's data that drive their decision not to implement this feature. For example, I always wish for my desired 4-stars until I'm close to reaching the hard pity, or even go all the way if it's a character I love, like Kirara. Perhaps 4-stars wisher players like me generate more money, I'm not sure. The main point is that MHY possesses information that we do not.
I had to get 4 5* for c6 Faruzan. I wanted kokomi, that’s fine, I lost 50/50 to Keqing and Tighnari and decided to try scara because kokomi cons aren’t super worth it. It wasn’t much money I was saving for kokomi and had funds related to her ready but god did it emotionally hurt
Oh I remember back when I trying to pull for sucrose in a Venti banner. Specifically sucrose because I like her character a lot and I kinda prioritise that over good characters.. I pulled so much I got Venti instead! No Sucrose. Had to wait for the next rate-up banner :) I did get her then tho!
I KNOW Venti is better as an Anemo unit and now I am glad I got him but it would have been nice to have Sucrose too...
>C5 Fischl
>Pulls for Neuvilette
>Gets him
>Do 40 extra pulls
>Still C5 Fischl
Such was my experience on this banner.
Being able to gurantee C6 would explode the popularity of characters that scale off of their C6 like Noelle.
Do you know how many people would drop money for their favorite 4 star with how badly the current system is resulting in people just waiting on a lucky stroke for the pull while wishing on a 5 star.
unfortunately, unless something like tectone's homa banner happens but with 4 stars, i dont think theyll ever implement any change to this.
Second! Like a quarter through and literally glued to the vid man, another great one
32:38 This isn't completely true, or incorrect perhaps, if we dwell deeper.
A 40-pull guarantee system also shift the average towards lower average number required to pull from 235 here to somewhere even lower. The data also do not stack at the x=280 axis you drew there. It'll compress the bell-curve distribution with theoretical cap at the line you drew (x=280).
Lastly, you should multiply the number of trials there with the amount of money they spent to reach that point (total revenue = sum(number of people who spent A pulls * number of money they've spent at A pulls). If we compare it to the data around x=280, the number should be non-negligible.
As someone who play both Genshin and HI3, I know those banners with 30-pull guarantee vs 50-pull guarantee is a big big jump in the amount of pull required to complete the 4-item set. A 30-pull guarantee would give players on average around 60-70 pull to complete. While a 50-pull guarantee will give players around 120-130 pulls to complete.
That reminds me on Yelans first banner, I wanted to get Noelle cons because back then, I mained her. I left with a C6 Yanfei.
With how many 4*s there are they need to just put 'em all in the shop at all times and let them be bought with primo gems directly. The RNG gacha worked fine when there weren't that many characters, but now its just agony. And its especially terrible when lots of the new 4*s are only good with constellations.
The idea of 4stars having capability of being extremely hard to aquire never really hit me. Even tho I gave myself a challenge when I started playing that I will get every 4star on their release update. Have been going strong since 1.6. Low spender
Oh god you have no idea how frustrated I am over 4*s during current banner (Neuvillette, xingqiu, Fischl, Diona).
I had Xing C1, Fischl C1 and C0 Diona so I was more rolling to build pity and hope for good constellations.
35 randomly accumulated intertwined I was willing to burn for pity later i now have C6 Diona.
Early game scarred me hard in this regard...
I wanted Diona... got 0 Dionas from Childe's banner but i did get a Qiqi.
I wanted a Xinyan... got 0 Xinyans but i did get Zhongli.
I wanted a Fischl constellation... 0 fischl cons, but two copies of Albedo😬
So yeah i wanted Kaveh, but decided against it and spend zero primos. Then i was tempted by Freminet, but again decided against it and spent nothing...
I'd approve of 4 star pity for sure, as well as more 4 stars in the monthly shop.
I feel like the question is leading, as it doesn't tackle the main question. Would they be willing to PAY more?? Sure, they might be willing to wish more, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they are willing to dish out their wallets for them, since there's still the 5* pity system in place. Would they be willing to go beyond 80 wishes and risk losing their guaranteed 50/50 win?? Would they be willing to get a 5* they dont like just because they can guarantee some 4* constellations?? The single question in your poll only serves to reinforce your point whilst completely disregarding the other conditions that can deter players from wishing for 4*. If they aren't willing to go far beyond the 5* soft pity, they can easily save enough primogems in a single patch, and won't feel any need to pay out.
The Epithomized Path for 5* weapons has a fundamental difference: the amount of wishes you need is HUGE, yes, they could get more money from whales with the former system, but by adding it, lower spenders would be more willing to pay to get them through the sunk cost fallacy. This doesnt translate to 4* because of the lower amount of resources needed paired with the unwillingness to risk a 5* pity.
In the end, low spenders and F2P would probably only be dropping money for this system on banners with 5* they do want, which they might do regardless. So I don't think the money they can gain from this can actually outperform the amount they currently earn from whales, unless they make the pity high enough it pretty much doesn't even matter.
"Wishing more for a 4*" and "wishing more" are two different claims! You conflated them here.
I want to say before continuing, I definitely want an epitomized path for 4*s (and for standard banner 5*s).
Being more likely to pull for a specific 4* character doesn't directly carry over to doing more pulls overall. If someone isn't after the 5* already, they will just do the epitomized path for 4*'s during the pre-soft-pity phase of working towards a 5*.
You're point that they could make the rate worse to compensate for any lost revenue in adding the guarantee is interesting and is good thinking. I'm not entirely convinced of it though. If making the rate worse makes them money, they could just do that while not adding a guarantee. A sudden change though would grab players attention simultaneously and ignite a backlash. The question is really more of what appeases players better to make them more willing to be shafted for money between having a guarantee and having a better rate. The guarantee would appease me better I think, but some people aren't very smart lol. If you had made a poll about whether people would rather have a reduced 4* rate along with a guarantee or leave things unchanged, I highly doubt it would be 90% in favor still. It would of course depend on how hard the guarantee to is to reach and how much lower the rate is.
Agreed as well. I have just reached the point where I dont pull on banners with 5-stars I dont want at all anymore because its a RNG trap and I never get the 4 star I am looking for.
So to the point you made about hoyo making money on people wishing more, they actually lose more money when people refuse to wish because the risks are high with low payoffs. Shooting themselves in the foot much?
I wish I saw this video before I just did my recent survey, I would have mentioned a note for them to improve chances of obtaining specific characters you want. I kinda gave up on it though so it didnt come to mind until seeing your video. Welp, guess I'll save this feedback for the next survey.
I like to try my luck on pulling for specific 4 stars that I like.
When Kirara released i pulled for her specifically and in only 30 pulls I turned from a Kirara wanter into a C2 Yoimyja haver.
Got Kirara not long after that but damn, that was a hype pull sessions.
I'm not done with the video so you may eventually say this, but I think it can be boiled down to this: a certain amount of "generosity" in gachas will push people to spend. Not generous enough, and the paywall will feel to large, but too generous and there's no reason to spend at all. This applied to guarantees/free pulls/whatever else you can think of. A great example was Hoyo's content creator program. I used to be part of it and would get a nice sum of primos once a month for the content I produced. Those free primos actually made me spend MORE money, I started "whaling" for the first time ever while in that program because the boost got me just close enough to being able to pull anything I wanted, that it now felt worth it to spend to close the gap. As soon as they changed their program and I stopped getting primos... I almost completely stopped spending lol. I was now too far away from the goal, the money I'd need to spend was outside of what I was willing. 4 star paths would most likely have this same effect for a lot of people. Instead of an uncountable amount of pulls you'd need, you can now calculate exactly what your worst case scenario might be. And those odds would probably make more people spend. I'm sure it would work on me LMAO
Having some background in statistics, listening to your arguments is slightly painful. Many of your assumptions are very questionable and the poll results ... I am not sure if most of the participants even had a good idea how would it affect their wishing patterns. If they really understood that the main point is, they would get more wanted 4*s at a cost of getting more unwanted 5*s. Because you can't really decouple getting 5*s from 4*s. My interpretation of the poll results is, 90+% of people would like to get the 4* of their choice when they want it, not that they would be really willing to regularly sacrifice their 5* pity for it.
What I think about it is, I believe we could get such thing in the future. When, nobody knows. QoL changes are important resource and giving them to us at a slow yet steady rate is part of Hoyo's strategy to keep us playing. That also means there's no reason for them to implement too many of them too fast.
But in terms of spending, I have my doubts it will have any significant effect on game's revenue, neither positive nor negative.
The best thing about 4☆ is that you can get all of them almost passively
The worst thing about 4☆ is that you can ONLY get them almost passively