DEMOGRAPHER EXPLAINS: Future of Australian Housing Market 🔮
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
- What will the Australian Property Market look like in 10 (Ten) Years?
In this episode Simon Kuestenmacher from The Demographics Group shares with us critical insights about:
- Australian Population forecasts and their impact on the housing market
- Impact of an aging population on Australian real estate
- How inequality may mean certain property segments outperform others
And a whole lot more you don't want to miss.
Easily my favourite interview this year! So insightful!
0:00 - Introduction
1:05 - How does population growth impact the housing market
10:44 - Changing Income profiles of Australia.
12:29 - Housing affordability problems in Australia.
14:12 - Why the division of Rich areas and Poor areas?
15:23 - Bell curve and U-shape environment
16:25 - Housing market explained: Byron Bay, Sorrento, Margaret River.
19:50 - Deep dive into the Sydney Housing Market
25:14 - Immigration impacts on the Australian housing market.
28:33 - Will the inheritance solve the affordability issues?
31:30 - Inheritance will increase the division between rich and poor.
32:35 - Conclusion
LEARN MORE 👇
💡 I Help People Achieve PASSIVE INCOME Through Property Investing Using Our Unique Data-Driven System, So You Can Confidently Buy Top 5% Growth & Cashflow Property, WITHOUT Wasting Months Doing "Research", Spending Weekends At Inspections OR Dropping $15k On Buyers Agents Each Time 👉 consultingbypk.com.au
❤️ JOIN THE COMMUNITY & GET FREE SUBURB TIPS + STRATEGIES
💡 Private Facebook Group With Over 40,000 Clients & Investors 👉 bit.ly/3dCSefm
💡 Top Ranked No "BS" Podcast On Spotify/ iTunes/ Google 👉 bit.ly/3UAetTK
🎬 MUST WATCH VIDEOS
💡 How I Built My $12,000,000 Property Portfolio By Age 33 👉 bit.ly/3zj0f0f
💡 How I Bought My $3,000,000 Dream Home Debt Free 👉 bit.ly/3Skrzms
💡 My Portfolio & Net Worth Break Down 👉 bit.ly/3Zu4sZN
💡 Buy Property Now Or Wait? 👉 bit.ly/3r6B8cI
💡 100+ Client Interviews 👉 bit.ly/3S9FITI
📥 MESSAGE ME!
💡 Instagram 👉 bit.ly/3SpC4ET
💡 Facebook 👉 bit.ly/3dEvHyO
💡 LinkedIn 👉 bit.ly/3ByOweG
💡 TikTok 👉 bit.ly/3RchwhX
💡 X 👉 bit.ly/3IJwgE5
DISCLAIMER: No Legal, Financial & Taxation Advice
The Listener, Reader or Viewer acknowledges and agrees that:
• Any information provided by us is provided as general information and for general information purposes only;
• We have not taken the Listener, Reader or Viewers personal and financial circumstances into account when providing information;
• We must not and have not provided legal, financial or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader or Viewer;
• The information provided must be verified by the Listener, Reader or Viewer prior to the Listener, Reader or Viewer acting or relying on the information by an independent professional advisor including a legal, financial, taxation advisor and the Listener, Reader or Viewers accountant;
• The information may not be suitable or applicable to the Listener, Reader or Viewer's individual circumstances;
• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and we are not authorised to provide financial services to the Listener, Reader or Viewer, and we have not provided financial services to the Listener, Reader or Viewer.
#PropertyInvestment #PassiveIncome #Australia #RealEstate
❤ JOIN THE COMMUNITY & GET FREE SUBURB TIPS + STRATEGIES
💡 Private Facebook Group With Over 40,000 Clients & Investors 👉 facebook.com/groups/passiveincomethroughproperty
💡 Top Ranked No "BS" Podcast On Spotify/ iTunes/ Google 👉 consultingbypk.com.au/podcast/
Brilliant Simon - you're the first person I've heard who's recognized the issue of bimodality in the housing market and more broadly as a failure in public policy with regards to income inequality.
Great insights by Simon
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK thats a political insight, not an investor's problem though
Great insights PK. Another master piece. I have just started to follow you and found your discussions very interesting and insightful.
It will be great to hear again from Simon and yourself on the Govt immigration policies with a new Govt in, it’s impact on house growth and other aspects.
Wow Masterstroke PK getting Simon Kuestenmacher on your channel well done.
Yes, please, very interesting and insightful
Yes Yes Yes. Excellent discussion. We need more like this.
So interesting!! Yes!!
Nice work PK. 19:05 interesting section on “the curse of paradise” and the need to solve the affordability crisis for gig workers in places like Sydney. 24:41 another nice section on housing affordability in Melbourne and Sydney relative to the world based on local median incomes. 27:12 adding 1.6 kids to the average home means 3 and 4 bedroom dwelling demand will explode in the next 15 years. Great insights!
Thanks for highlighting those bits!
Brilliant, more please
Simon seems to propose to increase housing via "Build-to-Rent" apartments, which caters only to monopoly real estate builders that can access cheap (capital market) debt and have the capital and labor/infrastructure to build big, and manage big projects.
This will lock out everyday Australian's from the rental real estate investment market and will exacerbate Aussie income inequality because real estate is the only investment in town.
Cap, they still won't be able to BTR enough to cater. We're still in the game bro
too good. many thanks to you both for some great insights..
🙏🏼🙏🏼
Yes to Simon
Another unreal Vid PK
Yes , re-watched 4 times now 👍
Great video.
Great commentary! It would be great to have Simon on again.
Yes, please. Thank you
Yes please!!
Yes!
Really enjoyed this video. More of these sorts of discussions are always warranted
Yes do another video with Simon. Love his insights
Yes, please get Simon back!
Yes Please, great video a lot of useful information and key learning to take away and think about.
this bloke was amazing smart man
The cost of a house was removed from the CPI calculation artificially lowering inflation and subsequently loosening monetary policy. Easy credit equals misallocation of capital, which equals unaffordable housing.
Please have Simon back !!! Absolutely fascinating!
Yes please!
Yes! Great guest and discussion.
Yes please 🙏
This was such a fantastic discussion! It wasn’t discussed but we’re also seeing the birth rate decrease, and that’s probably going to continue as we continue to have affordability issues, not to mention the upcoming generations looking more and more inward and focusing on the self (with the advent of the internet etc) rather than older school values of family and home life. Not only do we have financial pressures slowing down the birth rate, even if that’s not there more and more people are choosing not to have kids, and if they are, they’re choosing to have less!
My question is what happens if immigration tapers off eventually? Are immigrants going to keep wanting to come here forever / is it feasible? If that rap is turned off + the decrease in the birth rate continues, what happens then?
Anyways, I’m a yes for a part 2 with Simon 🤙
I agree, would love to hear more on this
Cheers bro, I’ll try get him on again.. could discuss this stuff for hours
As an immigrant from a 3rd world country, it's a fantastic place. However the issue is how to afford to come.
@@roman1823 as can a meteor!
Ive travelled 30 countries and 5 continents. People dream of coming to Australia. There will never be a lack of demand in our lifetime.
YES
Definitely get Simon back please, great timely info👌
Yes definitely
Yes
Big YES! Demographics is so interesting!
I loved this discussion. Usually I zone out after several minutes of discussion on one topic, but either Simon is an excellent communicater...or my new passion is demographics
yes
I can't understand why so many seemingly smart people see our current situation and conclude that we need more housing instead of less fiat money-printing. There are plenty of houses to go around, but the malinvestment resulting from ppl trying to escape from the crushing inflation of fiat money means that people all over the world have bought up 5-10 houses each, creating the illusion of a shortage. If people could just save their earnings in sound money, they would not buy 5-10 houses that get old and need maintenance all the time.
Simon looks to be on top of his game. Imma signing up to his media. ty PK
Yes Yes Yes
yes please. great discussion
Very interesting
Good video in a long time 😊
Also scary..
Great insights- I haven't thought about those points that Simon mentioned.
This conversation was gold. Thanks PK and Simon for an enlightening perspective of the future of Australia in regards to the demographics and how that would influence the property market.
The concept that on average Millennial would be getting inheritance wealth of their asset rich parents around 2041 is really interesting. Definitely agree the heightened divide between the poor and the rich. I also find the demand of 3-4 bedroom houses (probably rent) makes complete sense considering the age of Millennials, and I'm quite surprised, I didn't consider this prior.
You mentioned water-front Northern Beaches/Eastern Suburbs in Sydney will constantly increase. What about Upper North Shore which is also a well-off high-end area which's appeal is the bushland/nature despite being relatively close to CBD? Would they grow as well, or will it be different?
Looking at historical precedent, I’m of the view that all property basically perform the same over the long term. I did a video property truths a few months back that shows this data
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK Thanks for your response! I'll check that video out thanks :)
Yes please very intellectual stimulating information by Simon . Would love a second interview with him for sure PK. Thanks for all the amazing content here . 😊
Yes! Get Simon back again!! 🎉
Yes, please get Simon back. His view is phenomenal yet encouraging
Yes please. Learnt so much from Simon.
Loved this discussion. 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Yes he should come back.
Yesssss
Bell shape and U shape are the same in the middle,horizontally, what? dont understand reference here ???
They are the opposite of one another
Is Australia going to be another California? Should invest in used cars, that is the only affordable housing most people can afford
yes x1000
Byron Bay......😁😁😁 2-3 millions in minimum price...
Classic example of wealthy people destroying a town built on others dreams......Byron has been destroyed...
One million vacant properties on census night says all you need to know. There is NO undersupply of property in Australia. It is all a ruse. The real estate market is currently at the early stages of a correction that will likely last into 2030-2032 and which will ultimately see property price declines of 70% in real terms.
Already I am seeing evidence in inner city Sydney of declines in real terms of as much as 30% from the early 2022 peak.
If you want to talk about demographics that are going to have a profound impact on Australia, then there is none more important than the demographic time-bomb that is now unfolding in China that one of the worlds leading demographers concludes will see China's population halve by 2100.
Also , remember this fact. Australian residential land value as. a percentage of GDP in March of 2022, exceeded that of Japan in 1989. What followed in Japan is known as 'the lost decade'.
Australia is now about to suffer the same fate.
And never forget this final point. The majority are ALWAYS wrong at the top and the bottom.
We’ve discussed previously on this channnel, this stat has been consistent for 10 years - most is those being build, being in middle of bought and sold, or developed..
Misleading stat
An example of declines in inner city Sydney:
107/200-218 Goulburn Str Surry Hills Sold: October 2021 $822K
104/200-218 Goulburn Street Surry Hills Sold February 2023 $660K
Same layout, same fit out, same outlook, Identical units in everyday.
Factor in inflation between October 2021 and February 2023 and it is a disaster for the purchaser of the unit in 2021.
@@addictiveaussie oh yeah Sydney will go down 20% watch my videos been saying this for more than 12 months..
But markets within markets.. there are areas rising in other parts of Australia right now .. cent generalise
Rents must come down...
Landlords investors get indirect handouts on rents and the more money gov.give them the more they rise rents...greed rents use to be $300 a month in 1984.... rents was 20% of incomes now is 65%/75%... so gov. Help landlords on solar and what they do ...rise rents
Houses are in decay landlords dont want fix things spend 1 c so hard workers struggle crime is rising food prices rising,car prices rise from $10k to /$35,000/ $50k/
$100,000,insurances so if gov. do
nothing.they erasing the future ..
A month person works get $2,500 a month but rent us $1,800 power Bill's and petrol takes all money there is no life style....
Rents aren’t coming down any time soon. I’ve done a data driven video on the affordability crises and it’s reasons
Not all landlords increase. I've probably to my own determinant kept my rental lower to avoid tax as I'm positive geared. I fixed a low interest rate. It's coming off 2024 so will need to adjust then but not everyone is out to make oodles as I pay high tax and if I cannot negative gear, it's not good for me to have a huge income. I do however need to factor in increased taxes and other expenses.
@@ConstructionHoney that's a good problem to have
@@ConstructionHoney Stop masterbating in the YT comments section please. Just make more money and pay tax. Bloody ridiculous comment
I have never understood why millennials are from the 80s and 90s when the Millennium was at the turn of the Century in the year 2000
How does Australia support housing prices = 12x average wage? Debt you MoFo's
sounds like scalping
Increasing human populations in a capitalist society makes everyone/anyone look good. All geniuses ***sigh***
That was amazing! Thank you Simon and PK. I was hung on every word.
Yes!
Yes
yes
Yes!
yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes