The Hottest Heatwave In Modern Era Ends Saturday

HISTORIC HEAT WAVE PERSISTS
The most consequential heat wave of the modern era in Kern County reached its 25th day Monday. We are at a Category 5 Heat Wave and currently sit in an Excessive Heat Warning. Forecast highs range from 106-111 for the South Valley. The Kern mountains in the mid to upper 90s. The Kern desert sits at 108-115. We are hot! Overnight low looks to be unusually warm- mid 80s. An upper level high pressure system holds over the region through Thursday keeping us hot. By now, certainly, you should have become very familiar with heat tips and how to respect the heat.
THE ZENITH OF SUMMER
Monday, July 22nd, was the climatologically hottest day of the year. We are now officially half way through this crazy hot summer. Starting today, all the "normal" highs and lows will finally begin to lower- until reaching the nadir of winter on December 26th. Long time before we get there, however. The good news is that Heatwave #3 is numbered. A substantive shift in the weather pattern will be sending the big upper ridge (that hot dome of high pressure) east and away from California this weekend. A broad trough of low pressure will nuzzle up to the coastline. All this means that Heat Wave #3 should end on Saturday, Day 30. That will place this heat event as the fourth most intense heat wave in recorded history for Bakersfield. The three hotter heat waves occurred in 1906, 1908 and 1910. Can you imagine what life was like back then? To have 3 unbelievably hot summers in a 5 year period? And "air conditioning" would not be invented for years to come.
THIS WEEKEND, AND BEYOND
As daytime readings actually slip to below normal levels by Sunday, there are some indications that another super hot event may NOT be in the immediate future. Will Heat Wave #4 pick up where this one left off? Not necessarily. I've been looking at some atmospheric teleconnection indices that are telling me we may have seen the worst. Moving into August, the middle of next week, could prove to be the start of a more normal month. Yes, there will be more triple digits to come but not the long lasting extreme temperatures of the current heat wave. Also, long range models are showing more frequent troughs of low pressure coming close to the California coast. The question will be whether our monsoon season finally kicks into gear. Currently, there have been some thunderstorms in the desert and up over the Sierra. On Monday afternoon, a thunderstorm popped up over the Kelso Valley southeast of Lake Isabella. Another round of that is likely tomorrow and possibly Wednesday. But upper level steering winds shift to the southwest by Thursday bringing dry air from over the eastern Pacific.