Hi Mangs, I’m assuming that the percentage damage is uniformly distributed. That is 36%, 37%, …, 59% damage have an equal chance of happening. Also, you’ve assumed that the first attack knocks the infantry on a city to 5 HP. That’s not always going to happen, so the probability of a 2 shot kill is conditional on the first attack. If the infantry has 7HP, the resulting damage range is 40-66% and if it’s 6HP, the resulting damage is 42-69% (5HP as you’ve shown has a range of 43%-71%). I wrote a short piece of MATLAB code to loop through all scenarios. It looks like the probability is about 62.7%. FirstAttack = 36:1:59; ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack = 10 - floor(FirstAttack/10); SecondAttack{7} = 40:1:66; % 7HP SecondAttack{6} = 42:1:69; % 6HP SecondAttack{5} = 43:1:71; % 5HP count_success_2SK = 0; count_total = 0; for i = 1:length(FirstAttack) for k = 1:length(ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack) SA = SecondAttack{ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack(i)}; for m = 1:length(SA) count_total = count_total +1; total_damage = FirstAttack(i) + SA(m); if (total_damage >= 100) count_success_2SK = count_success_2SK+1; end end end end "The probability of a two-shot kill is " + num2str(count_success_2SK/count_total) + " or " + num2str(100*count_success_2SK/count_total) + "%" ans = "The probability of a two-shot kill is 0.62684 or 62.6844%"
If I recall correctly one of Mangs's old videos, and if it's the same in AWBW, bad luck and good luck rolls are separate. This means, with Barbaric Blow for instance, you get a first roll of [-39..0] then a second roll of [0..89] with the final result being the sum of these two. Not sure how it would affect the kill chance, assuming AWBW's Flak even works that way, but at first glance it's not a linear distribution.
My wildest dream is to do what Grimm Guy does but with Jugger. Only problem with that is that you have to pray hard to the Casino Gods to get it right, so it's not easy to pull off.
@@andregon4366 Orks are traditionally more rng and luck based depending on editions. Their melee is always solid, but their other stuff is typically shaky. Sometimes they get special rules that are gambling like. Healers that might randomly kill person instead, jetpacks that might explode if you choose to fly further, shooting accuracy in general.
imho, Flak could be really good in T4 match Live queue. With luck, you have to think twice more as the OPPONENT, and you can push really easy with that in mind.
Glad to see Chociloni here, and even winning! I like the guy. He's certanily above my level, but his games tend to be entertaining. Also, he created several Golden Sun/Weyard themed maps and those are maybe weird to play, but SO AESTHETICALLY PLEASING. At least for a Golden Sun series lover like myself.
12:25 Actually, Block Rock would be FANTASTIC here, because your units are greatly out of position and you just used your power. The +2 movement would allow your opponent to completely surround your HQ with his vehicles and do an unstoppable HQ cap. But hey, that's live play.
12:41 saddest helicopter attack ever! That poor 7 HP helicopter wanted to wall the HQ cap/artilllery so badly I could feel the tears pooring out of the windshield when it got sent to attack a tank!
Next time, try using Brute Force only instead of Barbaric Blow. I don't know exactly how to explain, but my theory is that Brute Force has a better average vs unit number. In AW not all engagements are made equal, some are way more important than others, so if these key fights don't do great with CO power is still "fine", but if they go terrible with his Super you're screwed. One example would be you and your opponent have one Neo Tank each. With no power, Flak can do 46% ~ 79%, which is already reasonable. With power it rises to 41% ~ 109%, already powerful enough to one-shot and in the worst roll, still 4 damage. With super however, the rolls are 21% ~ 149%, if you have a bad roll here, dealing only 2 damage, you're toasted. There might be a case yeeting lower cost units, like tanks with Barbaric can one-shot Neos with 0% ~ 105%... or, you can just use brute force and possibly do 0% ~ 65% already, AND use power again sooner.
Imo, Flak’s powers could make your meat-shields go offensive (inf benefits most from his Super). Any units that has less value should attack higher-value units (inf atk everything, tanks atk med/neo) or rush in and take out their indirects. You might find Flak most fun in small maps as his Super can either tear down opponent’s frontline, or unluckily build wounded meat-shields (that can still block dangerous units). Either way, use that chance to disrupt opponent’s formation while reposition yours
I dont think we will ever see a flak guy have success. Grimm is fun because he is consistent, if you are good enough you can take games with Grimm just by planning how to use your resources, with flak is a crapshoot and the average result is just bad
Peak flak is truly an rng fest! You better pray to the rng gods before smashing the power button! Pro tip: try to use flaks indirect bombers they are quit strong if used correctly
HI mangs I have been following your channel for 4 years now and enjoyed your content i loved advanced wars 2 more than anything it was the first game i had on my game boy and held onto it when the reboot came out and when i heard about advance wars by web i had to try it out i havent done a match but i will pick flack and only flack cause i like his character so i will become flack guy cause i want a challange all i need is help getting into AWBW and will do it but keep going with your bad self and hope to see more!
How do two sonyas with active supers work Can you get two units to kill each other? Wonder if you could get a mod to give flak first strike, then do a flak off lmao
Hey mangs I have a challenge for you, can you beat first jess mission in the normal campaing, but you can't use units that cost more than 12000 (predeployed units have to be deleted if they don't follow the rules).
i used to play with helmut a lot back in the day and still do it, one of the more fun to play cos just due to it's sheer randomness. and yes, flak name in the eu version is helmut
you should not rely so much in a miracle with Flak, you should atack the medium tank with a simple tank during barbaric blow, trying to beat a medium tank with a infantry is a last resource, Flak is good with indirects , unit spam and com towers, I play Flak a lot
I love how Olaf can summon a cold so fierce he literally frezzes enemy units alive. Drake wash his enemies away.. Sturm just summon a METEOR to blow his enemies up... Then there is Flak. In his power he flex his strength. In his super power he gets very angry. Love Flak
With Luck damage, there is a tension between the goals of taking favorable engagements, and protecting your infantry/total unit count. Yeeting your units as a Luck CO will only feed free dudes to your opponent. (Not to say you did that, necessarily. Just thinking out loud.)
I keep wanting to do a Flak and Jugger only account, called Jak and Flugger, the issue is I am bad at Advance Wars. The Will is there, but the skill is not.
that infantry/MD tank engagement was the most disappointing point of the match. I was here in my chair praying to Flak Jesus, but alas he did not deliver. sad days
If you could figure out when the numbers are generated for luck rolls you could probably cheese it a little bit in games that aren't so time constrained. Move infantry then tank and get a -3 +5 or tank then infantry and get +3 +3 etc. or its like pokemon or Minecraft where you figure out which RNG seed you have and know the potential outputs.
The problem comes from the fact you don't know the results before they happen, the only people who could know "RNG" bofore it happens would be the website developers and that would only be IF they coded the website in a specific manner.
@@USELESSDCK depends on how its coded like if its identical to adv wars rng patterns. But yeah knowing the code would be helpful. Then during a match you can plot the damage rolls to see if there's a matching pattern. Some number generators are overly complex like using frame counts or more simple like turn/input counts. But super dedicated people could probably figure it out after a while although if its time or frames it would be really hard to use.
Hi Mangs,
I’m assuming that the percentage damage is uniformly distributed. That is 36%, 37%, …, 59% damage have an equal chance of happening. Also, you’ve assumed that the first attack knocks the infantry on a city to 5 HP. That’s not always going to happen, so the probability of a 2 shot kill is conditional on the first attack. If the infantry has 7HP, the resulting damage range is 40-66% and if it’s 6HP, the resulting damage is 42-69% (5HP as you’ve shown has a range of 43%-71%). I wrote a short piece of MATLAB code to loop through all scenarios. It looks like the probability is about 62.7%.
FirstAttack = 36:1:59;
ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack = 10 - floor(FirstAttack/10);
SecondAttack{7} = 40:1:66; % 7HP
SecondAttack{6} = 42:1:69; % 6HP
SecondAttack{5} = 43:1:71; % 5HP
count_success_2SK = 0;
count_total = 0;
for i = 1:length(FirstAttack)
for k = 1:length(ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack)
SA = SecondAttack{ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack(i)};
for m = 1:length(SA)
count_total = count_total +1;
total_damage = FirstAttack(i) + SA(m);
if (total_damage >= 100)
count_success_2SK = count_success_2SK+1;
end
end
end
end
"The probability of a two-shot kill is " + num2str(count_success_2SK/count_total) + " or " + num2str(100*count_success_2SK/count_total) + "%"
ans =
"The probability of a two-shot kill is 0.62684 or 62.6844%"
Love comments like these!
If I recall correctly one of Mangs's old videos, and if it's the same in AWBW, bad luck and good luck rolls are separate. This means, with Barbaric Blow for instance, you get a first roll of [-39..0] then a second roll of [0..89] with the final result being the sum of these two. Not sure how it would affect the kill chance, assuming AWBW's Flak even works that way, but at first glance it's not a linear distribution.
Also your opponent could have captured your hq without answer since turn 14 and finish on 15, if he had use block rock and move planned
AW has low key the smartest people as part of its fandom
Flak fiend
Flak Guy lacks the alliteration of Grimm Guy, it should be Flak Fellow, Flak Friend, Etc.
Flak fiend, or Flak fan could work too.
I submit FlakJack
It works better as a rhyme imo. FlakAttacc would work
If only there was a convenient one syllable f word that would sound punchy when paired up with "flak"
@@scarabix3D flak *redacted*
You actually look alot like flak. You should do a full on cosplay!
Uh... Mangs looks like a meathead?
I don't even need to watch the video.
The thumbnail itself is peak!
My wildest dream is to do what Grimm Guy does but with Jugger. Only problem with that is that you have to pray hard to the Casino Gods to get it right, so it's not easy to pull off.
dude, you are "the flak guy"
You pick Flak, because it is fun
You pick Orcs in 40k, because it is fun.
You don´t pick the orc life, the orc life picks you.
Waaaaaaaghhhhh
*Orks
Isn't that the point of games?
@@andregon4366 Orks are traditionally more rng and luck based depending on editions. Their melee is always solid, but their other stuff is typically shaky. Sometimes they get special rules that are gambling like. Healers that might randomly kill person instead, jetpacks that might explode if you choose to fly further, shooting accuracy in general.
Mangs: is he walking into a brute force right now?
Literally everyone: I have never been worried about that.
"Flak Guy"? no. Flak FELLA.
Perhaps... Ape Man?
Will we eventually get Flak Guy???
Mangs should be Flak Guy.
You can be Flak guy and Deejus can be Jugger guy
You?
Why not Flak Fellow
imho, Flak could be really good in T4 match Live queue. With luck, you have to think twice more as the OPPONENT, and you can push really easy with that in mind.
Mangs: *gets no good luck rolls and proceeds to get demolished*
Also Mangs: Play Flak guys it's fun!
Flak vs Jake... its like seeing a gorila with a gun, of course he can melt you or he melt first vs a guy being a wannabe sonic with love to plains
„These bombers... They're indirect- combat units." - Flak
We need a sequel video to "Stop caring about fire emblem" titled "Stop caring about advance wars" and it's just flak propaganda.
Glad to see Chociloni here, and even winning! I like the guy. He's certanily above my level, but his games tend to be entertaining. Also, he created several Golden Sun/Weyard themed maps and those are maybe weird to play, but SO AESTHETICALLY PLEASING. At least for a Golden Sun series lover like myself.
12:25 Actually, Block Rock would be FANTASTIC here, because your units are greatly out of position and you just used your power. The +2 movement would allow your opponent to completely surround your HQ with his vehicles and do an unstoppable HQ cap. But hey, that's live play.
Oh i watched this match live yesterday. Loved to look it ^^
12:41 saddest helicopter attack ever! That poor 7 HP helicopter wanted to wall the HQ cap/artilllery so badly I could feel the tears pooring out of the windshield when it got sent to attack a tank!
99% of flak mains quit maining him right before they roll fat. Don't stop gambling.
Title: this game is peak flak
Mangs: looses
Mangs: "pick flak 👍"
Refuses to elaborate
Playing as Flak is how we Brazilian say: "Vivendo a vida louca!" (Living a crasy life!)
Because why not play as Flak? If is in the game, why not? XD
Mangs newest challenge: play and win with only flak 😂
Flak losing due to bad luck? Yup it really is peak flak!
After a minute watching the video I wanted to scroll down to post: "Flangs" only to realize that he already named himself that way.
i think flak is actually worst than grimm because his unreliability
I wish Flak was allowed in tourney play
I love playing Flak
When I saw Flak I just assumed bad luck rolls 👍
First we had a Grimm Guy, now we might have a Flak Fella
Mangs what are the plugins you are using on awbw
I think that Flangs and Jangs are the same guy 🧐
"As you can see..." no we can´t see because you had the calculator too low.
The luck giveth and also taketh away
Next time, try using Brute Force only instead of Barbaric Blow. I don't know exactly how to explain, but my theory is that Brute Force has a better average vs unit number. In AW not all engagements are made equal, some are way more important than others, so if these key fights don't do great with CO power is still "fine", but if they go terrible with his Super you're screwed.
One example would be you and your opponent have one Neo Tank each. With no power, Flak can do 46% ~ 79%, which is already reasonable. With power it rises to 41% ~ 109%, already powerful enough to one-shot and in the worst roll, still 4 damage. With super however, the rolls are 21% ~ 149%, if you have a bad roll here, dealing only 2 damage, you're toasted.
There might be a case yeeting lower cost units, like tanks with Barbaric can one-shot Neos with 0% ~ 105%... or, you can just use brute force and possibly do 0% ~ 65% already, AND use power again sooner.
Imo, Flak’s powers could make your meat-shields go offensive (inf benefits most from his Super). Any units that has less value should attack higher-value units (inf atk everything, tanks atk med/neo) or rush in and take out their indirects.
You might find Flak most fun in small maps as his Super can either tear down opponent’s frontline, or unluckily build wounded meat-shields (that can still block dangerous units). Either way, use that chance to disrupt opponent’s formation while reposition yours
Fortune favors the Flaks who fear no foe
Flak guy, me half sleep
Jugger bot, *TERMINATOR VIBES*
I wonder if Mangs is going to catch some.... flak for this.
I'll show myself out.
I am a Jugger main in AWBW. I will tell you, rnjesus giveth and rnjesus taketh away.
I dont think we will ever see a flak guy have success. Grimm is fun because he is consistent, if you are good enough you can take games with Grimm just by planning how to use your resources, with flak is a crapshoot and the average result is just bad
Oh man that’s a nice medium tank you got there would be a shame if something… oh well, never mind then. Thats basically flak in my experience
Shadow of Aetheria Iron man?, I'm planning to do one myself. But are you mangs?
You should make a fireemblem 6,7 or 8 patch that makes all your units have flak luck damage or something like that
Peak flak is truly an rng fest! You better pray to the rng gods before smashing the power button!
Pro tip: try to use flaks indirect bombers they are quit strong if used correctly
Dear Mangs, I like the idea of you making a custom CO in advance wars. Can you make a video about units that are good for stardard and CO only unit?
HI mangs
I have been following your channel for 4 years now and enjoyed your content i loved advanced wars 2 more than anything it was the first game i had on my game boy and held onto it when the reboot came out and when i heard about advance wars by web i had to try it out i havent done a match but i will pick flack and only flack cause i like his character so i will become flack guy cause i want a challange all i need is help getting into AWBW and will do it but keep going with your bad self and hope to see more!
How do two sonyas with active supers work
Can you get two units to kill each other?
Wonder if you could get a mod to give flak first strike, then do a flak off lmao
Maybe Mangs found out Flak is an eggman just like him and felt a new connection with the character.
Lowkey... I could be Flak guy if I got decent at this game. I like playing Flak. : >
Alas, I am dumb at this game.
Love the ending! 😂
Hey mangs I have a challenge for you, can you beat first jess mission in the normal campaing, but you can't use units that cost more than 12000 (predeployed units have to be deleted if they don't follow the rules).
How I can activate the bgm in the web page?? I never found the option
ayy thats what ive been doing on live league, only luck CO's. doesnt work out too well but its hilarious to destroy neotanks and shit with infantry
Flak fiend
i used to play with helmut a lot back in the day and still do it, one of the more fun to play cos just due to it's sheer randomness. and yes, flak name in the eu version is helmut
funny, you are playing against my AWBW buddy
You Pick Flack Cuz ur the PEAK FLAK
you should not rely so much in a miracle with Flak, you should atack the medium tank with a simple tank during barbaric blow, trying to beat a medium tank with a infantry is a last resource, Flak is good with indirects , unit spam and com towers, I play Flak a lot
Flakguy, the new Grimguy
More miniatures like this please
Have you made a guide on each CO yet?
Flangs promotes losing :(
What if Flak had better anti air? 🤔
Please name it "Flak Fellow"
How about Flak Girl? ♥
I love the thumbnail!
A man of Flakulture.
Mangs turns into Flanks
Where can i play this
Flak mains rise up
I love how Olaf can summon a cold so fierce he literally frezzes enemy units alive. Drake wash his enemies away.. Sturm just summon a METEOR to blow his enemies up...
Then there is Flak. In his power he flex his strength. In his super power he gets very angry.
Love Flak
With Luck damage, there is a tension between the goals of taking favorable engagements, and protecting your infantry/total unit count. Yeeting your units as a Luck CO will only feed free dudes to your opponent. (Not to say you did that, necessarily. Just thinking out loud.)
Flak!
Up!
The desperate counterattack that gave Mangs hope was beautiful! Threw everything available in the scramble for victory!
Flak’s unique luck rolls making him an unusual BCopter-Recon specialist is why I love AW’s COs so much, flaws and all
Flakback when.
So you plan to make exclusive AWBW account for FLAK?
no drake today, pack your bags
SQUALL
who is "they see me rollin"?
I mean Flak is the Devil Axe of Advance Wars...
I keep wanting to do a Flak and Jugger only account, called Jak and Flugger, the issue is I am bad at Advance Wars. The Will is there, but the skill is not.
Flak stealing Jugger's thunder. Give the bot some love too
Unfortunately, the guy she tells you not to worry about is never the guy you don't have to worry about, which is Flak.
Mangs 2024: "I am winning" 14:50
Is 2k ahead in unit value, equal in unit count and 2k down in income, at the end of his turn
😂
Ladies and gentleman... I have a new hobby
*cracks open a beer*
... oh no
We need Uber Flak, doubling every advantage and disadvantage.
that infantry/MD tank engagement was the most disappointing point of the match. I was here in my chair praying to Flak Jesus, but alas he did not deliver. sad days
Tbh now i want to make an awbw account and name it Flugabwehrkanone (Flak in short) cause this idea is marvelous
flaks reboot camp theme goes soo hard, they're really awesome in general
Mangs didn't pray hard enough to casino bot.
Forget Flak Guy, we need a player named Juggernaut to only play Jugger
Flakkalakalaka
Other flak names:
Flemish Flak
Flakdimir
French Flakgue
Flakkapult
Campaign-accurate Flak gameplay.
I wanna see a tournament with only Flaks.
Ending was the best part, hahah
If you could figure out when the numbers are generated for luck rolls you could probably cheese it a little bit in games that aren't so time constrained. Move infantry then tank and get a -3 +5 or tank then infantry and get +3 +3 etc. or its like pokemon or Minecraft where you figure out which RNG seed you have and know the potential outputs.
The problem comes from the fact you don't know the results before they happen, the only people who could know "RNG" bofore it happens would be the website developers and that would only be IF they coded the website in a specific manner.
@@USELESSDCK depends on how its coded like if its identical to adv wars rng patterns. But yeah knowing the code would be helpful. Then during a match you can plot the damage rolls to see if there's a matching pattern. Some number generators are overly complex like using frame counts or more simple like turn/input counts. But super dedicated people could probably figure it out after a while although if its time or frames it would be really hard to use.
MangsFlak is so epic!
Flak Fella when
My, oh my...😮
Play Flak