John Mearsheimer is a smear campaign and delusional Yes China will rise and is rising building ports trains and track it’s happening now. It’s wishful thinking China is gonna stop every thing now in Africa Middle East Asia. Because Americans and Americans doesn’t like it and call it a debt trap.
I listen to him 20mins a day and leave the rest for a next day, for dessert. Very wise and clever and he brings that to you in most pleasurable and decent way.
this is the best lecture i've ever watched about china u.s. relationship. as much as i admire francis fukuyama, i'm more convinced by mearsheimer's offensive realism theory.
The question should be "Can the US be no.2 peacefully? Can the US be peaceful if and when India also tries to catch up?" China rising peacefully is already a fact. If China fires a shot, it would most probably be from the US being nosey.
China rising peacefully is no longer a fact. Its aggressive actions in the South China Sea and the increased tensions with Japan over Islands in the East China Sea would seem to support Mearsheimer's prediction - that China will try to dominate Asia and become more powerful.
@@connorstevens8917 And how is that not peaceful? I would call it non-peaceful if China had started a war in the South China Sea but that's not what happened.
@@Claire-lv9lc havent started war yet. But there s a high chance it will happen in the near future. And I hope it wont because that will fck up the world more than it is now. USA will not go down without a fight. Same with China and Russia as we can see now in current situation.
It's all BULLSHIT and big fat lies and PROPAGANDA from the US. IN reality US is a Imperialist REGIME SATAN power never rise peacefully, but China already rise peacefully more than 20 years ago . It's already happen on the ground . US is a terrible trouble maker cause all the conflicts and wars all over the world period hahahaha lol 🤣🤣🤣🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸👉👉💩💩💩😈😈😈!!!
Yes. I have only recently discovered these lectures, after searching for background info on the Ukraine conflict. What a find! Without theoretical framework, world events seem random, and international dynamics seem incomprehensible. They are not.
@@SectionSixteen what remains incomprehensible is why the Nato bigwigs decided to throw Ukraine under the bus. Sure it hurts Russia but also hurts themselves.
@@a55tech No, not incomprehensible in the least. Ukraine is not a place "of core strategic interest" to the U.S. in the opinion of those running our foreign policy, be they Dems or Repubs. Prof. J.M. lays it all out very clearly in other YT lectures.
@@SectionSixteen I've watched a lot of them. He says multiple times it is a core strategic interest of the US. It is because it's a clear strategic interest that the politicians want to weaken Russia. He just doesn't think it's wise. You should review those vids again.
Anyone who thinks China is the aggressive one is someone who doesn't even know where China and the US are on a world map, and where the American military bases are in western Pacific.
Sir with due respect during 1941 US and Japanese War, Philippine become a Proxy war on that time and Filipino fought on that Proxy war and many Filipino died and Manila was Bomb by Americans and our house was burned to the ground and America promised to pay for War damaged they done in the Phil and Mac Arrthur left and filipino fought side by side with Americans and most Filipino was Captured and some died along the way and Americans promised to pay the Phil for the war damage done but that promised made to be broken and instead they payed Japan
As an American. Who never knew about any of this type of behaviour from our Govt. I know it doesn't mean anything bc I can't do anything about it..... But Im sorry that happened to you... Along with everyone else in the world our govt has wronged. I guess it's not just us they crap on. 😓 Just please understand. These people are a special group called freemasons. As ND in years back they were kept under control but since the assassination of John F Kennedy' they started taking over. They were called the shadow govt when they was growing up. Now they took completely over. I believe they r the Nazis from WW2 myself
NASA DIDN'T REACHED THE MOON .THERE ARE SO MANY MYTHS ABOUT MOON LANDING .IF THEY LANDED ON MOON THEN WHY NASA TAKING SO MUCH TIME TO LAND SECOND TIME.THEY NEVER LANDED ON MOON AND EXPLAINING ABOUT MARS AND FAR DISTANCE PLANETS .
Some of the words used by Mr John Mearsheimer are repeat of a speech he made in Tsinghua University in China. I think his theory is also no more than a repeat of the Greek philosopher Thucydides explanation between the 30 year conflict between Spartan and the rising Anthan. While I think the speaker did in his theory make a good analysis of the history of aggression of the US, he has probably failed to do sufficient work on the analysis of Chinese history. In the 14th century, when China was on top of the world in terms of wealth and military power, and sent 7 sea explorations down to the oceans through Admiral Zheng He with his grand fleets, China conquered no land and implanted no government onto others. All it did was to demand respect from others. It was only in one instance that when the king of Southern Cylon treated Zheng He in an insulting manner in his 1st voyage, that in his 3rd voyage Zheng He returned and defeated the entire kingdom and captured the king, his family and courtiers back to China. And upon his apology, the emperor of China released the king back home unharmed. China was basically not very interested in taking lands with a indigenous culture unless it is out of strategic defence needs. And this national characteristic seems to linger on to these days. In that sense I am not convinced that China will follow what he said the US had done in competing for global hegemony. What China wants to achieve is that it should be treated as equal by anyone. In other words, China wants mutual respect, not control of others. Furthermore, I would argue that the biggest problem with Mr Mearsheimer's theory is that the fear of the US hegemon for a rising power is not founded on security concern, but on pure greed and a national megalomania (or to put it politely, national pride) fostered since the fall of the USSR in 1990. The reason is clear. Nuclear weapon. Any nuclear competent nation feel threatened in its security will not merely be relying on conventional weapon, but also its nuclear arsenal, which is the ultimate deterrent for any form of invasion. So fear for its own security is no longer the justification for the US global hegemony these days. Why does the US need to engage in average 2 wars every 3 years to defend itself? It is simply an excuse to continue its ability to control others. In this sense I think the US is playing a very dangerous game in the South China Sea because I believe China bona fide sees its act in occupying the islands there not as aggression, but preservation of its own historical rights. While I appreciate that there is very little room for compromise between contesting nations over the South China Sea, using nuclear weapon as a means to resolve the dispute with those smaller nations in the area is absolutely out of question. However the intervention of the US may change the rules of the game. For those smaller nations who are elated that the US seems to be joining force with them over the issue (not out of charity, but out of desire to keep control of the world), they better think thrice for if the US is engaged militarily with China over the South China Sea, and in the face of overwhelming odd in an invasion of its territory by a joint force of the US and its cronies, China may resort to its nuclear arsenal. There will be no winner at the end. If the US wants to co-exist peacefully in the 21st century with China, its government and its people needs to radically adjust its egocentricity and megalomania and learn that the world is for sharing, not for conquering. Otherwise we could all be losers as both countries have the ability to go M.A.D. That is not an aspect which was addressed by Thucydides, nor by the learned speaker.
+chiupo lini It seems to me that it is you who have failed to study Chinese history deeply. According to the official historical record of the Ming Dynasty, Zheng He was granted the rights to use force when necessary, and Zheng have used indeed. 《明史》卷304「鄭和傳」：「成祖疑惠帝亡海外，欲蹤迹之，且欲耀兵異域，示中國富強。」、「宣天子詔，因給賜其君長，不服則以武懾之。」
+Sengin Chan If you are on an expedition and carries no force, you will be screwed. Despite the formidable military power Zheng He's fleets possessed, that was only used twice. The first one was to help a local chief in the Philippines to quell rebellion. The second time was used in Southern Ceylon. But none resulted in conquest of other people's lands. The use of force in Southern Ceylon occurred in Zheng He's 3rd expedition when he captured the king of Southern Ceylon for insulting behaviour towards Zheng He on his first visit to the southern Ceylong court during the 1st expedition. The king, his family and courtiers were all taken back to Beijing. After 2 years, they were all pardoned and escorted back home. But by then Southern Ceylon was already ruled by another member of the royal family. So the original king lost his throne in any event - not to the Chinese, but to his own kingsman. Some forty years later the prince of the new line of king of southern Ceylon was sent by his father to pay homage to the Ming emperor of China. While he was in Beijing, the king in southern Ceylon died and the cousin of the young prince usurped the throne. When news reached China, the prince was advised not to return as he would surely be murdered. So the prince took refuge and settled down in Quan Zhau (泉州) in Fujian province. Later on the introduction of a cousin of Zhegn He, married a muslim noble lady. Their children inter-married with Chinese and became an ancient family line in Fujian. The direct line of descendants of the Cyelon prince today is a lady called Shi Yin E (世吟娥) who runs a restaurant and antique business in Quan Zhou. Followed family tradition,she kept her ancestry a secret until the Sri Lanka and Chinese governments tried to dig open the family graves of the legendary prince to uncover evidence of his settlement in China in the late 1990s. It was then that the lady surfaced, and proved her ancestry to the experts of both countries. In 2002 she was invited to visit Sri Lanka and was received as the only known surviving descendant of the Cylon monarchy and accorded the honour akin to a visiting head of state. This history in fact enhanced the friendship between China and Sri Lanka. So do not just read half of the history and try to tell me the other half. China has always been a peaceful nation and did not set to conquer other countries like the Western colonial powers did even though it was perfectly capable of so doing. The international morality of the Chinese is very different from that of the West.
Saying the china of the 14th century is similar to the China of today is foolish, not one of the founding fathers would expect America to be interfering is wars around the global and yet here we are.
@@Dragon-eu8cb Chinese look to history for lessons because we have many recorded precedents over thousands of years of history to look up which suit different situations. One thing can be noted is that many historical experience repeat themselves. How old is the US? The US founding fathers did not foresee the US today because they had no history to look up to. China will eventually teach the US a lesson, literally.
As long America doesn’t create proxy wars against China, China will rise and continue to rise peacefully. China’ BRI projects will continue to provide prosperity with other countries.
@Dave "The Animal" Bautista He He He . I know the spelling of Ukrainians is incorrect . I did it intentionally because I knew sooner or later some smart ass may comment about the spelling . Lo and behold here u are .
I like the professor's style like a sales pitch almost in other talks. We don't know the future > we need a theory > I have a theory > you need my theory > listen carefully > brainwashed. I should adapt this approach in my business.
His model is a little flawed. Whilst there is some ubiquity in the behaviours of rising or pre-established hegemons, it would be a gross error to assume that a civilization-state like that of China's, stretching back thousands of years with its own cultural paradigms and weltanschuaangs would behave ''exactly'' like America. It's clear that China will be a hegemon, but Chinese values aren't the same as those of America's and therefore the hegemonic nature of China will be distinctly Chinese. What remains is the question what are those distinct Chinese characteristics?
Isn't the point that the great game is nationalist and anarchist. No rules. Your nuke, sitting in its launch tube, just has a different flag on it. This will hold true unless there is a permanent NWO. More than a "balancing" liaison between noncombative bodies. If we were attacked by Klingons I could see that develop. because our focus would then be off-planet.
@@Zeneroth No. He already answered your question at 54:33 the idea that China will be a Confucius peaceful nation unique because of its culture etc etc. is the same nonsense as American exceptionalism.
It is interesting to see the difference in the Western psyche and the Oriental psyche in this issue. No wonder, the West does not understand nor can they anticipate China.
If you read the book where he lays out this theory "Tragedy of Great Power Politics", he explains to you why. And it basically comes down to that nomatter who is in power, a Great Power will always have Great Power problems. He also uses 5 historical examples and analyses them with this theory; worth a read.
The question is why US needs to control everything while China does not pose a security threat to US, He admitted it in another talk that US is the most secure country in the world.
we have the same question, why control China? isn't it unfair? why can't countries grow the way each of them would like to grow? why is the US always playing boss?
The Philippines will also be an American ally, as its already a treaty ally and owns crital real estate to deter China with. My girlfriend is Filipina and as someone who visits there and Vietnam I am amazed at how popular America is in both nations and they ussualy mention how they are afraid of China and want American protection. And if you look a pew survay data Vietnam and Filipino rate having a very positive attitude to America at 88% plus rates and that compares to about 50% in western Europe the next closested nations are Poland and other anglo nations where we feel like pratically family being culturally very similar.
The Romam Empire seems to be the exception to your theory because even though it was an hegemonic power of its time and didn't tolerate competing countries; however it colapsed and desapeared to give way to other hegemonic powers.
Filipinos loves to be the doormat of the US,that’s why your GF picked you up. They go crazy for “hey Joe’s” . Even an American plumber will be Brad Pitt in their eyes.😂
I find these lectures fascinating. The world is not for weak as only the strong get to enjoy bullying other nation take what they want and the weak are left with the left overs. Its sad how Africa with all its resources is so behind and left begging to the world.
Very well presented theory, have to say, Prof.Mearsheimer is a top-level western intellectual. However, the problem always is, western people always thinks the other people follows the same doctrines, but cultures are really different. That's what creates things even like the divide between the red and the blue states.
i agree with you on your assessment. i disagree with prof JM's basic assumption of chinese growth behavior, assuming same to be similar to the american one. as both countries (societies) are based on fundamentally different idiologies, the chinese based on a dominantly confusion ideology and the american based on a abrahamic one, thus my argument that the chinese growth behavior will be substantially different from the american one.
Stop with the silly notion of an East/West false dichotomy. The only time that ever seems to be an issue is when a authoritarian regime thinks they don't have to obey the same rules, regulations, and standards as everyone. (e.g. Putin) The world is globalized and functions upon International Law. Ever since the formation of the United Nations, everyone has benefited from international cooperation. Which is made of all 193 countries, btw. Giving a voice to all people. The UN has ushered in the greatest period of relative peace, freedom, and prosperity ; in human history. Especially, empowering those who suffered the most from the previous era of colonialism.
Mearsheimer's theory is based on "we can't get better." And I disagree with this, partly because, when we believe we can't get better, then it's assured that we can't. How come world leaders can't get together, agree that everyone wants to live in peace, and put this war thing behind us? I see US more of a danger to world peace then China is. US is notorious being run by lobbies whose ultimate objective to get rich themselves, not their countries. How come we still haven't find a way to put narcissistic psychopaths out of commission?
I think we get better in some dimensions and worse in some dimensions. That's why his view remains relevant. See life expectancy, democracy etc -> we got better. But came wars to secure the hard earned gains.
@@laudalassan109 Life expectancy is objectively getting worse in US. Also, I'd argue, democracy too is on its way out in US. Whoever's campaign gets more funding wins the race, hence lobbyists get what they want. Also, current vice president is nominated to be the next president even though she has dismal approval ratings and hasn't gone through the primaries.
@@xyttra Yes on the candidates - its the structure that constrains actors' choice . Both parties are the same - like same wine in 2 bottles. America is a pure military industrial complex with complete control of capitalists over media and state apparatus. Also, the polyarchy is deformed in favour of lobby groups like AIPAC - who won't let USA make right decisions - coz every man in capitol wants to save his seat. Sad but true. Founding fathers would be rolling in their graves on the state of puppetry ...(called democracy in USA) nowadays.
He asserts that it's near impossible to know the intentions of other people. But he obviously forgets the traditions of China. An ancient country with long history should be analyzed from a holistically historical point of view.
He reflects the American way of thinking, and projected that onto the world. He who is anxious about the future did not read history. John understood his audience well and fed them 3 framing things. 1. We can't predict the future. 2. China is the same as USA and China wants to be the same as USA. 3. China is rising. All 3 of his points are false but most Americans would not know any different. This is an example of the China grand illusion - AKA The China Mirage.
What you say is true .... but the Chinese mind is working according to different assumptions, on a different background. The mentality is different, based on ancient Chinese philosophies and traditions. I think it's fair to say that very few westerners understand the Oriental mind.
The black box assumption is problematic. It may explain the tendencies for state sponsored violence and mayhem among European states and the West in general. But the theory fails to account for the elephant in the room: the civilization of China has existed for over 4000 years, that of India for three...both were behemoths of civilization , 1 and 2, and has peacefully coexisted for most of their times, notwithstanding minor insignificant border skirmishes. Two, MAD between the West and the Soviet Bloc had maintained the peace where conflict were manifested only in proxy wars but never direct shooting conflict between the nuclear powers, even among the European states with nukes, where wars among themselves is a collective regional sport. If China want to rise peacefully, she must develop a credible nuclear deterrence...
Due to slow traveling speeds, the two empires did not have any overlapping foreign policy needs because each had their own sphere of influence. There were also huge mountains that would block any invading army from coming. I’m not even sure the Chinese empire at the time even shared a border with India. Now that global trade is huge and vast distances can be traveled within hours, the affairs of countries far away from you suddenly matter much more. Especially when a country can send an invading Army anywhere on the globe in a month
it is not fair what he says about China . Why does he not want China become a competition and why should America be the most powerful accruing to him? I lost him when he said that
I thought the premise of the arguments emphasized on US military power and its determined effort to protect its interest, and very little on how the economic growth in Asia for example have changed perceptions about US policies.
In a world of nuclear weapons the cost of war, can be utter catastrophic. This creates a compelling reason, to limit the competition and set up spheres of influence.
China & USA are two different countries with different systems of Government. For Peace to be achieved each Nation must respect one another as to their respective choices.
Pourquoi Monroe en decembre 1823 pouvait réclamer la NON ingérence des européens aux états-unis ?! alors pourquoi, aujourd'hui en 2014, la Chine ne PEUT pas réclamer ce même droit ? pourquoi ???
excellent lecture and workshop. however i disagree with the basic assumption of chinese growth behavior, assuming same to be similar to the american one. as both countries (societies) are based on fundamentally different idiologies, the chinese based on a dominantly confusion ideology and the american based on a abrahamic one, thus my argument that the chinese growth behavior will be substantially different from the american one.
sincerely curious about the scenario, that alien were to attach earth, would China and U.S. leave all the mess behind and cooperate with each other to defend the earth, or would be some 'agreement' that U.S. allies with the alien to pin China out and then do the defend by themselves. Because if we replace the aliens with virus, apparently it didn't work out at all.
The best defense against communist authoritarian dictatorship is to strengthen democracies from corrupting influences and nepotism. It takes an active and concerted effort of the people, to ensure that our democratically elected politicians are truly representing our interests. We must also address what hostile communist countries are doing, both domestically and abroad. Democratic Nations must stand together against their lawlessness in defense of global security, human rights, and enforce International Law.
Great lecture! I just heard on July 3rd, 2022 in China, and I would like to add something culturally: Chinese people can read records 2000 yrs ago and hegemony is the one thing that failed itself repeatedly. So Chinese architects calculated carefully that to be the powerful one but not as powerful as one can to make others feel hierarchy, in which way avoiding superpower competing. Chinese do know that the US is and wants to be forever a hegemony. From Chinese history, hegemony will have certain desires that may lead to miscalculation. I think Chinese leader is letting these desire to the US'. It would be very interesting scenario that two superpowers gamble each other. That would be a blessing for the rest of the world.
My calculation being: 1 faction, naturally peaceful 2 faction, naturally warlike, the stronger faction will eat the other one. 3 faction, peaceful if A + B > C, A - B < C, (aka, strengths forms a triangle), otherwise warlike, the strongest faction eats the other two and reduces to unipolar. 4 faction, warlike unless too small faction, reduces to unipolar or tripolar. If the one is greater than the sum of three then it will eat the other factions. It reduces to tripolar if the smaller three of them forms a triangle and sums to greater than the biggest one, the biggest will be eaten. Otherwise, e.g. 100, 40, 40, 120, then the second largest faction will gift the two smaller nations with resources until a triangle can be formed, and then they will eat the biggest faction 5 faction, if 1 > sum of all others, warlike, otherwise stable. Because if the three weaker factions sums up to be bigger than the two stronger factions. Otherwise if sum 4 > 1 then stable, since in the 4 factions, the biggest faction dies if it is not stronger than all the rest combined, and if it is stronger than all others combined, then it must gift the others resources till this is not the case like in the 4 factions case, but then it will die if it's the strongest faction. 6 factions, unstable unless too small faction, because 1v5, big nation eat all the rest, or 5 factions is stable, so the five weaker nations will ally to eat the biggest with the biggest one gifting smaller nations until it is not stronger than the 4 weakest nations combined. Reduces to pentapolar or unipolar. 7 factions, stable if 6 weakest > 1 biggest, since 6 factions is unstable. Same reasoning as 5 factions. 8 factions, reduces to heptapolar or unipolar unless too small faction making gifting not worth it.
谢谢分享.thanks the sharing by the professor and the discussion inspired. Villagers (except the leaders) should aim at clear border and more trade business, not fights Right? Don't get used as a tool
"The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" the China Question is the 3rd Part of the book, the rest of the book explains his Offensive Realism theory in full.
1. China's rise should not create uneasiness among many countries. 2. China's Xi Jinping has been greatly saddened by foreign countries' repeated invasions and thus he made up his mind to intensify China's overall strengths ( militarily , economically , culturally , psychologically , technologically , etc ) so as to deter any foreign invasions. 3. Xi does not feel comfortable with the current so-called " world order " which is basically dominated by hegemony ( BIG FIST , MIGHT IS RIGHT , 强权就是公理 ). He would like to straighten the current bad situation so that the world can be peaceful. He is a strong believer in MUTUAL RESPECT , PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE , MUTUAL PROGRESS , etc., regardless of whether the country is big or small. He always implements the Confucian ethics which is the cornerstone of equality , peace and harmony among all races ....
Love ALL lectures by Professor Mearsheimer and I think I have watched most of them. However a more explanatory title for this one could have been *"Unlike the US can China rise peacefully?"*
It's all BULLSHIT and big fat lies and PROPAGANDA from the US. IN reality US is a Imperialist REGIME SATAN power never rise peacefully, but China already rise peacefully more than 20 years ago . It's already happen on the ground . US is a terrible trouble maker cause all the conflicts and wars all over the world period hahahaha lol 🤣🤣🤣🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸👉👉💩💩💩😈😈😈!!!
Just wait. China hasn't built up the formidable military that it now has only to show it off at its yearly parades. And its persecution of the Tibetans and the Uyghurs of Xinjiang - which have been called genocides - hardly reflect the so called "very very peaceful country" which you are claiming. Then there is the enormous internal security forces within the country. The CCP spends more money on the suppression of the Chinese people than it does defending itself from external enemies. The notion that China is somehow inherently peaceful is Chinese Communist Party propaganda, pure and simple.
Because of the US's hegemony. China would have swallow Taiwan with violence long ago if the US hadn't intervene. And after that, they would have continue.
I have a caveat on your belief that you can't predict the benign intentions of your spouse at marriage. I think the fear of malign intentions of your prospective spouse can, in a large way be eliminated, if you choose a spouse with a benevolent character.
While both John Mearsheimer and Kenneth waltz claim themselves as Structural realists, they never cross reference each other in any of their talks. Anyone have any idea about that?
Countries with Nuclear Arsenals in Asia include ---> 1) India, 2) Israel, 3) Pakistan,) China,) USSR - Ability to manufacture weapons of war include, India, Korea, Vietnam.
Why would you desire to be a regional hegemon when you could desire to incorporate other nations into your nation? If you want POWs to develop Stockholm syndrome, you would treat them well.
It is now almost summer 2023, 9 years after this Harper lecture that took place before the out break of the hostilities in Ukraine in 2014 that led to the civil war in the Donbas and America with its allies has now insured that Russia has to worry about its backyard. The present crisis in Ukraine is an outcome of strategic thinking reliant on the unwitting support of an evangelical atheism devoted to the new democratic ethos of individual preeminence.
La géopolitique est comme une partie de "jeu de go", il faut occuper des terrains et défendre son territoire ! occuper des terrains : consolider des relations avec Corée du sud, Allemagne, BRI(C)S, etc... défendre son territoire : augmenter la capacité de son pouvoir militaire de projection Donc, wait and see, qui les deux USA et Chine va gagner cette partie de "jeu de GO" !
Sir please help explain the Biafra case As religion is used to size the land of indigenous people in their aserstrial homes/land denying them their identity
With due respect, the premise of the question that you have posed is inconsistent why? Here ,I would phrase the above question: " WILL CHINA BE ALLOWED TO DEVELOP AND RISE IN PEACE? " I REST MY CASE! AND THANK! YOU!
However, your opinion of great power politics is based on your Western, controversial world view. We need an Asian/Chinese theory of great power politics (which value harmony over controversy) for balance.
Pourquoi Chine, Japon et Corée du sud ne PEUVENT pas s'entendre ? Avec ce genre de discours et individu aux états-unis, vous pouvez être sûr qu'il n'y aura jamais un arrangement pacifique et acceptable pour deux parties entre Chine-Japon et Japon-Corée du sud !!! (également Chine-Inde !)
He makes the assumption (1:05) that China will continue to grow for the next twenty or thirty years at the fast pace that it has grown for the last twenty or thirty years. If you are willing to accept that assumption then go ahead and spend an hour and twenty-two minutes.
The westerns are good at analyzing things by using all methodologies they had while through the elites' mindsets. This is wrong. So many westerns emphasize the westerns' values. And it seems that they completely don't know what values for most Chinese civilians
Very good lecture, with several concepts. And delivered with passion...nice to see a professor enjoying what he does.
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Awesome lecture, Mearsheimer is one of my all time favorite intellectuals.
InstaBlaster.
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@@tadeoelias512 ⁰00000
John Mearsheimer is a smear campaign and delusional Yes China will rise and is rising building ports trains and track it’s happening now. It’s wishful thinking China is gonna stop every thing now in Africa Middle East Asia. Because Americans and Americans doesn’t like it and call it a debt trap.
Indoctrination.
An amazing lecture. Your teaching style and content is wonderful. How I wish was your student. Thank you for putting it on RUclips.
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I listen to him 20mins a day and leave the rest for a next day, for dessert.
Very wise and clever and he brings that to you in most pleasurable and decent way.
Thank you professor for sharing your thoughts on this subject.
this is the best lecture i've ever watched about china u.s. relationship.
as much as i admire francis fukuyama, i'm more convinced by mearsheimer's offensive realism theory.
Uncle Sam's a Christian...his moto is do unto others before they do unto you.
think most people are.
What a man! I guess he will live long in the memories of educated people all over the world fir his methodology. Clear and precise..
I appreciate his stance and his logic. Great man/speaker
Every lecture of this man is resurfacing as a realized prediction.
watching this in May 2024...turns out he's so right!!!!!
So far looks peacefully to me.
Great lecture and Q&A. Too bad most people don’t bother to educate themselves with such great thinkers.
We Have To Teach People!! TO LISTEN TO BENIFICAL LECTURES!!
The question should be "Can the US be no.2 peacefully? Can the US be peaceful if and when India also tries to catch up?"
China rising peacefully is already a fact. If China fires a shot, it would most probably be from the US being nosey.
China rising peacefully is no longer a fact. Its aggressive actions in the South China Sea and the increased tensions with Japan over Islands in the East China Sea would seem to support Mearsheimer's prediction - that China will try to dominate Asia and become more powerful.
@@connorstevens8917 And how is that not peaceful? I would call it non-peaceful if China had started a war in the South China Sea but that's not what happened.
@@Claire-lv9lc havent started war yet. But there s a high chance it will happen in the near future. And I hope it wont because that will fck up the world more than it is now. USA will not go down without a fight. Same with China and Russia as we can see now in current situation.
@@Claire-lv9lc exactly he is Just talking shit and nonsense hahaha lol 🤣🤣🤣😁😁😁👍👍👍👍🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳♥️♥️♥️
It's all BULLSHIT and big fat lies and PROPAGANDA from the US. IN reality US is a Imperialist REGIME SATAN power never rise peacefully, but China already rise peacefully more than 20 years ago . It's already happen on the ground . US is a terrible trouble maker cause all the conflicts and wars all over the world period hahahaha lol 🤣🤣🤣🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸👉👉💩💩💩😈😈😈!!!
OMG I love this man he is so clear and inellegent, may God give him goog health so we can enjoy his teachings, I pray states lesten to him
very important to revisit these lectures at this time with awful war in ukrane
yup russia certainly not fading into sunset
Yes. I have only recently discovered these lectures, after searching for background info on the Ukraine conflict. What a find! Without theoretical framework, world events seem random, and international dynamics seem incomprehensible. They are not.
@@SectionSixteen what remains incomprehensible is why the Nato bigwigs decided to throw Ukraine under the bus. Sure it hurts Russia but also hurts themselves.
@@a55tech No, not incomprehensible in the least. Ukraine is not a place "of core strategic interest" to the U.S. in the opinion of those running our foreign policy, be they Dems or Repubs. Prof. J.M. lays it all out very clearly in other YT lectures.
@@SectionSixteen I've watched a lot of them. He says multiple times it is a core strategic interest of the US. It is because it's a clear strategic interest that the politicians want to weaken Russia. He just doesn't think it's wise. You should review those vids again.
Anyone who thinks China is the aggressive one is someone who doesn't even know where China and the US are on a world map, and where the American military bases are in western Pacific.
This man deserves my biggest respect. Our policians in Europe have not half of his intellectual knowledge!
most people are brainwashed, thats why. By Hollywood and Congress,
Sir with due respect during 1941 US and Japanese War, Philippine become a Proxy war on that time and Filipino fought on that Proxy war and many Filipino died and Manila was Bomb by Americans and our house was burned to the ground and America promised to pay for War damaged they done in the Phil and Mac Arrthur left and filipino fought side by side with Americans and most Filipino was Captured and some died along the way and Americans promised to pay the Phil for the war damage done but that promised made to be broken and instead they payed Japan
As an American. Who never knew about any of this type of behaviour from our Govt. I know it doesn't mean anything bc I can't do anything about it..... But Im sorry that happened to you... Along with everyone else in the world our govt has wronged. I guess it's not just us they crap on. 😓
Just please understand. These people are a special group called freemasons. As ND in years back they were kept under control but since the assassination of John F Kennedy' they started taking over. They were called the shadow govt when they was growing up. Now they took completely over. I believe they r the Nazis from WW2 myself
the USA did not fulfill its obligations to Filipinos who fought for US. With Rescission Act of 1946, Filipinos were short changed.🥵🤧
Thanks for letting us know why the USA has been terribly pocking nose in every nation across the world.
Qqqqqqq
You say that like its somehow a jab against John?
United snakes
NASA DIDN'T REACHED THE MOON .THERE ARE SO MANY MYTHS ABOUT MOON LANDING .IF THEY LANDED ON MOON THEN WHY NASA TAKING SO MUCH TIME TO LAND SECOND TIME.THEY NEVER LANDED ON MOON AND EXPLAINING ABOUT MARS AND FAR DISTANCE PLANETS .
@@zach3305 you up to see
Some of the words used by Mr John Mearsheimer are repeat of a speech he made in Tsinghua University in China. I think his theory is also no more than a repeat of the Greek philosopher Thucydides explanation between the 30 year conflict between Spartan and the rising Anthan. While I think the speaker did in his theory make a good analysis of the history of aggression of the US, he has probably failed to do sufficient work on the analysis of Chinese history.
In the 14th century, when China was on top of the world in terms of wealth and military power, and sent 7 sea explorations down to the oceans through Admiral Zheng He with his grand fleets, China conquered no land and implanted no government onto others. All it did was to demand respect from others. It was only in one instance that when the king of Southern Cylon treated Zheng He in an insulting manner in his 1st voyage, that in his 3rd voyage Zheng He returned and defeated the entire kingdom and captured the king, his family and courtiers back to China. And upon his apology, the emperor of China released the king back home unharmed. China was basically not very interested in taking lands with a indigenous culture unless it is out of strategic defence needs. And this national characteristic seems to linger on to these days. In that sense I am not convinced that China will follow what he said the US had done in competing for global hegemony. What China wants to achieve is that it should be treated as equal by anyone. In other words, China wants mutual respect, not control of others.
Furthermore, I would argue that the biggest problem with Mr Mearsheimer's theory is that the fear of the US hegemon for a rising power is not founded on security concern, but on pure greed and a national megalomania (or to put it politely, national pride) fostered since the fall of the USSR in 1990. The reason is clear. Nuclear weapon. Any nuclear competent nation feel threatened in its security will not merely be relying on conventional weapon, but also its nuclear arsenal, which is the ultimate deterrent for any form of invasion. So fear for its own security is no longer the justification for the US global hegemony these days. Why does the US need to engage in average 2 wars every 3 years to defend itself? It is simply an excuse to continue its ability to control others.
In this sense I think the US is playing a very dangerous game in the South China Sea because I believe China bona fide sees its act in occupying the islands there not as aggression, but preservation of its own historical rights. While I appreciate that there is very little room for compromise between contesting nations over the South China Sea, using nuclear weapon as a means to resolve the dispute with those smaller nations in the area is absolutely out of question. However the intervention of the US may change the rules of the game. For those smaller nations who are elated that the US seems to be joining force with them over the issue (not out of charity, but out of desire to keep control of the world), they better think thrice for if the US is engaged militarily with China over the South China Sea, and in the face of overwhelming odd in an invasion of its territory by a joint force of the US and its cronies, China may resort to its nuclear arsenal. There will be no winner at the end.
If the US wants to co-exist peacefully in the 21st century with China, its government and its people needs to radically adjust its egocentricity and megalomania and learn that the world is for sharing, not for conquering. Otherwise we could all be losers as both countries have the ability to go M.A.D. That is not an aspect which was addressed by Thucydides, nor by the learned speaker.
+chiupo lini
It seems to me that it is you who have failed to study Chinese history deeply. According to the official historical record of the Ming Dynasty, Zheng He was granted the rights to use force when necessary, and Zheng have used indeed. 《明史》卷304「鄭和傳」：「成祖疑惠帝亡海外，欲蹤迹之，且欲耀兵異域，示中國富強。」、「宣天子詔，因給賜其君長，不服則以武懾之。」
+Sengin Chan If you are on an expedition and carries no force, you will be screwed. Despite the formidable military power Zheng He's fleets possessed, that was only used twice. The first one was to help a local chief in the Philippines to quell rebellion. The second time was used in Southern Ceylon. But none resulted in conquest of other people's lands.
The use of force in Southern Ceylon occurred in Zheng He's 3rd expedition when he captured the king of Southern Ceylon for insulting behaviour towards Zheng He on his first visit to the southern Ceylong court during the 1st expedition. The king, his family and courtiers were all taken back to Beijing. After 2 years, they were all pardoned and escorted back home. But by then Southern Ceylon was already ruled by another member of the royal family. So the original king lost his throne in any event - not to the Chinese, but to his own kingsman.
Some forty years later the prince of the new line of king of southern Ceylon was sent by his father to pay homage to the Ming emperor of China. While he was in Beijing, the king in southern Ceylon died and the cousin of the young prince usurped the throne. When news reached China, the prince was advised not to return as he would surely be murdered. So the prince took refuge and settled down in Quan Zhau (泉州) in Fujian province. Later on the introduction of a cousin of Zhegn He, married a muslim noble lady. Their children inter-married with Chinese and became an ancient family line in Fujian.
The direct line of descendants of the Cyelon prince today is a lady called Shi Yin E (世吟娥) who runs a restaurant and antique business in Quan Zhou. Followed family tradition,she kept her ancestry a secret until the Sri Lanka and Chinese governments tried to dig open the family graves of the legendary prince to uncover evidence of his settlement in China in the late 1990s. It was then that the lady surfaced, and proved her ancestry to the experts of both countries. In 2002 she was invited to visit Sri Lanka and was received as the only known surviving descendant of the Cylon monarchy and accorded the honour akin to a visiting head of state. This history in fact enhanced the friendship between China and Sri Lanka.
So do not just read half of the history and try to tell me the other half. China has always been a peaceful nation and did not set to conquer other countries like the Western colonial powers did even though it was perfectly capable of so doing. The international morality of the Chinese is very different from that of the West.
Saying the china of the 14th century is similar to the China of today is foolish, not one of the founding fathers would expect America to be interfering is wars around the global and yet here we are.
@@Dragon-eu8cb Chinese look to history for lessons because we have many recorded precedents over thousands of years of history to look up which suit different situations. One thing can be noted is that many historical experience repeat themselves. How old is the US? The US founding fathers did not foresee the US today because they had no history to look up to. China will eventually teach the US a lesson, literally.
@@chiupolini Chinese Exceptionalism
As long America doesn’t create proxy wars against China, China will rise and continue to rise peacefully. China’ BRI projects will continue to provide prosperity with other countries.
Professor is pure brilliant .
I'm from Russia 😊
He's lectures are priceless for me .
Stop killing innocent Ukarineians.
@@maharwarrior2767
I wish but i dont have such power to stop this war
@Dave "The Animal" Bautista He He He .
I know the spelling of Ukrainians is incorrect .
I did it intentionally because I knew sooner or later some smart ass may comment about the spelling .
Lo and behold here u are .
@@maharwarrior2767 'I was only pretending to be retarded!'
No one buys it, buddy.
@@maharwarrior2767 Do you have a graduation certificate from school?
The Conduct of the CCP would indicate that they have no intentions to. Xi Jinping's statements should also be considered in this regard.
I like the professor's style like a sales pitch almost in other talks.
We don't know the future > we need a theory > I have a theory > you need my theory > listen carefully > brainwashed.
I should adapt this approach in my business.
His model is a little flawed. Whilst there is some ubiquity in the behaviours of rising or pre-established hegemons, it would be a gross error to assume that a civilization-state like that of China's, stretching back thousands of years with its own cultural paradigms and weltanschuaangs would behave ''exactly'' like America. It's clear that China will be a hegemon, but Chinese values aren't the same as those of America's and therefore the hegemonic nature of China will be distinctly Chinese. What remains is the question what are those distinct Chinese characteristics?
Thats because its a realist theory. He leaves it out on purpose.
Isn't the point that the great game is nationalist and anarchist. No rules. Your nuke, sitting in its launch tube, just has a different flag on it. This will hold true unless there is a permanent NWO. More than a "balancing" liaison between noncombative bodies. If we were attacked by Klingons I could see that develop. because our focus would then be off-planet.
I agree with this
@@Zeneroth No. He already answered your question at 54:33 the idea that China will be a Confucius peaceful nation unique because of its culture etc etc. is the same nonsense as American exceptionalism.
U don't know China. Professor super correct
It is interesting to see the difference in the Western psyche and the Oriental psyche in this issue. No wonder, the West does not understand nor can they anticipate China.
I’m sure both sides understand what the other is thinking very well. But there is no negotiation to be made.
I agree mostly with what he is saying although i think he overstates things. International politics are much more nuanced than how he presents them.
If you read the book where he lays out this theory "Tragedy of Great Power Politics", he explains to you why. And it basically comes down to that nomatter who is in power, a Great Power will always have Great Power problems. He also uses 5 historical examples and analyses them with this theory; worth a read.
The question is why US needs to control everything while China does not pose a security threat to US, He admitted it in another talk that US is the most secure country in the world.
we have the same question, why control China? isn't it unfair? why can't countries grow the way each of them would like to grow? why is the US always playing boss?
@@tristandwightreyesjr.3840权力是春药，霸权有数不清的利益。
The Philippines will also be an American ally, as its already a treaty ally and owns crital real estate to deter China with. My girlfriend is Filipina and as someone who visits there and Vietnam I am amazed at how popular America is in both nations and they ussualy mention how they are afraid of China and want American protection. And if you look a pew survay data Vietnam and Filipino rate having a very positive attitude to America at 88% plus rates and that compares to about 50% in western Europe the next closested nations are Poland and other anglo nations where we feel like pratically family being culturally very similar.
The Romam Empire seems to be the exception to your theory because even though it was an hegemonic power of its time and didn't tolerate competing countries; however it colapsed and desapeared to give way to other hegemonic powers.
Philippines is a US colony.
Filipinos loves to be the doormat of the US,that’s why your GF picked you up. They go crazy for “hey Joe’s” . Even an American plumber will be Brad Pitt in their eyes.😂
I find these lectures fascinating. The world is not for weak as only the strong get to enjoy bullying other nation take what they want and the weak are left with the left overs. Its sad how Africa with all its resources is so behind and left begging to the world.
Very well presented theory, have to say, Prof.Mearsheimer is a top-level western intellectual. However, the problem always is, western people always thinks the other people follows the same doctrines, but cultures are really different. That's what creates things even like the divide between the red and the blue states.
i agree with you on your assessment.
i disagree with prof JM's basic assumption of chinese growth behavior, assuming same to be similar to the american one. as both countries (societies) are based on fundamentally different idiologies, the chinese based on a dominantly confusion ideology and the american based on a abrahamic one, thus my argument that the chinese growth behavior will be substantially different from the american one.
Stop with the silly notion of an East/West false dichotomy. The only time that ever seems to be an issue is when a authoritarian regime thinks they don't have to obey the same rules, regulations, and standards as everyone. (e.g. Putin)
The world is globalized and functions upon International Law. Ever since the formation of the United Nations, everyone has benefited from international cooperation. Which is made of all 193 countries, btw. Giving a voice to all people.
The UN has ushered in the greatest period of relative peace, freedom, and prosperity ; in human history. Especially, empowering those who suffered the most from the previous era of colonialism.
@@China_Secret_Police What international law let US invade Iraq? The law of exceptionalism.
Can US be peace?
NO
Peace . Mean No income.
War is politics by other means
Not at all
I want Peace & Quiet.
Reply : ok I'll be Quite. And I'll be Peace
Mearsheimer's theory is based on "we can't get better." And I disagree with this, partly because, when we believe we can't get better, then it's assured that we can't. How come world leaders can't get together, agree that everyone wants to live in peace, and put this war thing behind us? I see US more of a danger to world peace then China is. US is notorious being run by lobbies whose ultimate objective to get rich themselves, not their countries. How come we still haven't find a way to put narcissistic psychopaths out of commission?
I think we get better in some dimensions and worse in some dimensions. That's why his view remains relevant. See life expectancy, democracy etc -> we got better. But came wars to secure the hard earned gains.
@@laudalassan109 Life expectancy is objectively getting worse in US. Also, I'd argue, democracy too is on its way out in US. Whoever's campaign gets more funding wins the race, hence lobbyists get what they want. Also, current vice president is nominated to be the next president even though she has dismal approval ratings and hasn't gone through the primaries.
@@xyttra Yes on the candidates - its the structure that constrains actors' choice . Both parties are the same - like same wine in 2 bottles.
America is a pure military industrial complex with complete control of capitalists over media and state apparatus. Also, the polyarchy is deformed in favour of lobby groups like AIPAC - who won't let USA make right decisions - coz every man in capitol wants to save his seat. Sad but true. Founding fathers would be rolling in their graves on the state of puppetry ...(called democracy in USA) nowadays.
He asserts that it's near impossible to know the intentions of other people. But he obviously forgets the traditions of China. An ancient country with long history should be analyzed from a holistically historical point of view.
He reflects the American way of thinking, and projected that onto the world.
He who is anxious about the future did not read history.
John understood his audience well and fed them 3 framing things.
1. We can't predict the future.
2. China is the same as USA and China wants to be the same as USA.
3. China is rising.
All 3 of his points are false but most Americans would not know any different. This is an example of the China grand illusion - AKA The China Mirage.
What you say is true .... but the Chinese mind is working according to different assumptions, on a different background. The mentality is different, based on ancient Chinese philosophies and traditions. I think it's fair to say that very few westerners understand the Oriental mind.
The black box assumption is problematic. It may explain the tendencies for state sponsored violence and mayhem among European states and the West in general. But the theory fails to account for the elephant in the room: the civilization of China has existed for over 4000 years, that of India for three...both were behemoths of civilization , 1 and 2, and has peacefully coexisted for most of their times, notwithstanding minor insignificant border skirmishes.
Two, MAD between the West and the Soviet Bloc had maintained the peace where conflict were manifested only in proxy wars but never direct shooting conflict between the nuclear powers, even among the European states with nukes, where wars among themselves is a collective regional sport. If China want to rise peacefully, she must develop a credible nuclear deterrence...
Indian civilisation is much more ancient than any other civilisation and china is nowhere near it.
Due to slow traveling speeds, the two empires did not have any overlapping foreign policy needs because each had their own sphere of influence. There were also huge mountains that would block any invading army from coming. I’m not even sure the Chinese empire at the time even shared a border with India.
Now that global trade is huge and vast distances can be traveled within hours, the affairs of countries far away from you suddenly matter much more. Especially when a country can send an invading Army anywhere on the globe in a month
This is the way of thinking that destroy the earth - the root of unti-peace power
To be in peace you must always be prepared for war! This is the truth of this world.. there will be completion for ever for power
Such an impressive current political analyst!
This Mearsheimer is pro-Putin, pro-Russia, big time.
Sounds like a theory for explaining why and how to bully others.
grow up
it is not fair what he says about China . Why does he not want China become a competition and why should America be the most powerful accruing to him? I lost him when he said that
What he wants is irrelevant he's just telling you how it is. Humans have been at war with each other for 10,000 years - don't expect it to change.
because the CCP is evil....da!
*Can US decline peacefully*
Romans 8:6 The mind of the flesh is death, but the mind of the Spirit is life and peace,
Why the hell did they put the mic right next to his lapel? Every time he gesticulates, it rubs against his jacket and makes a crackling noise.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - George Orwell, 1984
19 minutes in and sounds alot like US triumphalism.The Art of War:Star and Stripes style.But makes me understand the US alot better.
Yeah I feel like I learned more about what America is thinking than China.
I thought the premise of the arguments emphasized on US military power and its determined effort to protect its interest, and very little on how the economic growth in Asia for example have changed perceptions about US policies.
In a world of nuclear weapons the cost of war, can be utter catastrophic. This creates a compelling reason, to limit the competition and set up spheres of influence.
stunning lecture, incisive and fair standing.
China & USA are two different countries with different systems of Government. For Peace to be achieved each Nation must respect one another as to their respective choices.
Nobody has the Monopoly of TRUTH.
Thank you very much
This could easily be a lecture on interpersonal relationships as well as international relationships
Pourquoi Monroe en decembre 1823 pouvait réclamer la NON ingérence des européens aux états-unis ?! alors pourquoi, aujourd'hui en 2014, la Chine ne PEUT pas réclamer ce même droit ? pourquoi ???
excellent lecture and workshop. however i disagree with the basic assumption of chinese growth behavior, assuming same to be similar to the american one. as both countries (societies) are based on fundamentally different idiologies, the chinese based on a dominantly confusion ideology and the american based on a abrahamic one, thus my argument that the chinese growth behavior will be substantially different from the american one.
I question the heading of this video. Peace? Who in the world is disrupting peace to its own advantage?
Dr M. A National Treasure !!
sincerely curious about the scenario, that alien were to attach earth, would China and U.S. leave all the mess behind and cooperate with each other to defend the earth, or would be some 'agreement' that U.S. allies with the alien to pin China out and then do the defend by themselves. Because if we replace the aliens with virus, apparently it didn't work out at all.
It rose peacefully in the past 20 years without firing a shot
1979年开始
"we are addicted to war"holy US XD
The West needs to protect itself. Don't trust Iran, China or Russia.
@@Chris-dt5td Sounds like everyone else needs to protect themselves from the one country that is addicted to war.
@@Chris-dt5td or ISRAEL. BELT&ROAD PARTNER
@@lutherblissett9070 oh get over it
BELT&ROAD partners will wipe the West out.
Bingo
Kudos to the cameraman/woman
Greatest intectual and political academic of the age.
An eye opener... but it makes you feel helpless!
The best defense against communist authoritarian dictatorship is to strengthen democracies from corrupting influences and nepotism. It takes an active and concerted effort of the people, to ensure that our democratically elected politicians are truly representing our interests.
We must also address what hostile communist countries are doing, both domestically and abroad. Democratic Nations must stand together against their lawlessness in defense of global security, human rights, and enforce International Law.
This remains a superb policy reminder for the USA.
It very good lecture
I use to think America and Britain were the good guys. But the Ukraine and Israeli wars opened my eyes to see we are not on the right side of history.
Why there is no caption for the video?
Actually China is rising peacefully American’s is interfering overseas not just China other countries as well.
How can Guatemala aim to be the most powerful state when that goal is obviously impossible? Why not aim to be the most skillful ck
Great lecture! I just heard on July 3rd, 2022 in China, and I would like to add something culturally: Chinese people can read records 2000 yrs ago and hegemony is the one thing that failed itself repeatedly. So Chinese architects calculated carefully that to be the powerful one but not as powerful as one can to make others feel hierarchy, in which way avoiding superpower competing. Chinese do know that the US is and wants to be forever a hegemony. From Chinese history, hegemony will have certain desires that may lead to miscalculation. I think Chinese leader is letting these desire to the US'. It would be very interesting scenario that two superpowers gamble each other. That would be a blessing for the rest of the world.
Well, by calculation, with any number of nations, the smaller nations will all unite against the biggest one.
China is not willingly not being strong, obviously it wants to be the biggest baddest country in the world. But it can't do this.
My calculation being:
1 faction, naturally peaceful
2 faction, naturally warlike, the stronger faction will eat the other one.
3 faction, peaceful if A + B > C, A - B < C, (aka, strengths forms a triangle), otherwise warlike, the strongest faction eats the other two and reduces to unipolar.
4 faction, warlike unless too small faction, reduces to unipolar or tripolar. If the one is greater than the sum of three then it will eat the other factions. It reduces to tripolar if the smaller three of them forms a triangle and sums to greater than the biggest one, the biggest will be eaten. Otherwise, e.g. 100, 40, 40, 120, then the second largest faction will gift the two smaller nations with resources until a triangle can be formed, and then they will eat the biggest faction
5 faction, if 1 > sum of all others, warlike, otherwise stable. Because if the three weaker factions sums up to be bigger than the two stronger factions. Otherwise if sum 4 > 1 then stable, since in the 4 factions, the biggest faction dies if it is not stronger than all the rest combined, and if it is stronger than all others combined, then it must gift the others resources till this is not the case like in the 4 factions case, but then it will die if it's the strongest faction.
6 factions, unstable unless too small faction, because 1v5, big nation eat all the rest, or 5 factions is stable, so the five weaker nations will ally to eat the biggest with the biggest one gifting smaller nations until it is not stronger than the 4 weakest nations combined. Reduces to pentapolar or unipolar.
7 factions, stable if 6 weakest > 1 biggest, since 6 factions is unstable. Same reasoning as 5 factions.
8 factions, reduces to heptapolar or unipolar unless too small faction making gifting not worth it.
谢谢分享.thanks the sharing by the professor and the discussion inspired. Villagers (except the leaders) should aim at clear border and more trade business, not fights
Right? Don't get used as a tool
есть текст данной лекции???? или русский перевод
"The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" the China Question is the 3rd Part of the book, the rest of the book explains his Offensive Realism theory in full.
That would be difficult given the nature of the USA..
1. China's rise should not create uneasiness among many countries.
2. China's Xi Jinping has been greatly saddened by foreign countries' repeated invasions and thus he made up his mind to intensify China's overall strengths ( militarily , economically , culturally , psychologically , technologically , etc ) so as to deter any foreign invasions.
3. Xi does not feel comfortable with the current so-called " world order " which is basically dominated by hegemony ( BIG FIST , MIGHT IS RIGHT , 强权就是公理 ). He would like to straighten the current bad situation so that the world can be peaceful. He is a strong believer in MUTUAL RESPECT , PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE , MUTUAL PROGRESS , etc., regardless of whether the country is big or small. He always implements the Confucian ethics which is the cornerstone of equality , peace and harmony among all races ....
I would enjoy having such a professor. BTW, when someone sneezes, does one usually say "Gesundheit!" in your parts? :)
Yes oddly so
Love ALL lectures by Professor Mearsheimer and I think I have watched most of them. However a more explanatory title for this one could have been *"Unlike the US can China rise peacefully?"*
It's all BULLSHIT and big fat lies and PROPAGANDA from the US. IN reality US is a Imperialist REGIME SATAN power never rise peacefully, but China already rise peacefully more than 20 years ago . It's already happen on the ground . US is a terrible trouble maker cause all the conflicts and wars all over the world period hahahaha lol 🤣🤣🤣🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸👉👉💩💩💩😈😈😈!!!
Mr. Mearsheimer: Compare to USA, China has been a very very peaceful country.
Just wait. China hasn't built up the formidable military that it now has only to show it off at its yearly parades. And its persecution of the Tibetans and the Uyghurs of Xinjiang - which have been called genocides - hardly reflect the so called "very very peaceful country" which you are claiming. Then there is the enormous internal security forces within the country. The CCP spends more money on the suppression of the Chinese people than it does defending itself from external enemies. The notion that China is somehow inherently peaceful is Chinese Communist Party propaganda, pure and simple.
Because of the US's hegemony. China would have swallow Taiwan with violence long ago if the US hadn't intervene. And after that, they would have continue.
Look at their aggressive behavior at Tibet , India and Twaiwan..seriously this country most evil
@@snaik44 when was that ? Used human rights not happening now ignorant troll.
Yup Belt and road Initiative trades. American been interfering using CIA NED NGOs George Soros Open Society Foundation using Human Rights
I have a caveat on your belief that you can't predict the benign intentions of your spouse at marriage. I think the fear of malign intentions of your prospective spouse can, in a large way be eliminated, if you choose a spouse with a benevolent character.
there are not subtitles😫😫sad
A good "intellectual" is like a hostage negotiator. He'll convince you to give up without a fight.
While both John Mearsheimer and Kenneth waltz claim themselves as Structural realists, they never cross reference each other in any of their talks.
Anyone have any idea about that?
AND just why should they cross-reference each other, if they are both two sides of the same coin?
@@travelfreak2 structural realism
Countries with Nuclear Arsenals in Asia include ---> 1) India, 2) Israel, 3) Pakistan,) China,) USSR - Ability to manufacture weapons of war include, India, Korea, Vietnam.
The USSR dissolved 32 years ago
Why would you desire to be a regional hegemon when you could desire to incorporate other nations into your nation?
If you want POWs to develop Stockholm syndrome, you would treat them well.
15:00 - 15:20 And that explain why North Korea has acquired a nuclear deterrent and this nuclear deterrent is no negotiable!
It is now almost summer 2023, 9 years after this Harper lecture that took place before the out break of the hostilities in Ukraine in 2014 that led to the civil war in the Donbas and America with its allies has now insured that Russia has to worry about its backyard. The present crisis in Ukraine is an outcome of strategic thinking reliant on the unwitting support of an evangelical atheism devoted to the new democratic ethos of individual preeminence.
I like know the rise of India in the 20th century as a growing economy in the world.
La géopolitique est comme une partie de "jeu de go", il faut occuper des terrains et défendre son territoire !
occuper des terrains : consolider des relations avec Corée du sud, Allemagne, BRI(C)S, etc...
défendre son territoire :
augmenter la capacité de son pouvoir militaire de projection
Donc, wait and see, qui les deux USA et Chine va gagner cette partie de "jeu de GO" !
The chinese invented go... and mearsheimer thinks the Chinese are, and I quote, "going to eat our lunch." I am pessimistic
Well since "go game" is an ancient Chinese game, I'm gonna say China! Lol
Sir please help explain the Biafra case
As religion is used to size the land of indigenous people in their aserstrial homes/land denying them their identity
Uploaded 9 years ago!! 😮
J.Mearsheimer n jeffrey sachs n douglas meggragor can combine n let the world know
1:09:00 gesundheit! :D awesome!
John is always correct…
With due respect, the premise of the question that you have posed is inconsistent why? Here ,I would phrase the above question: " WILL CHINA BE ALLOWED TO DEVELOP AND RISE IN PEACE? " I REST MY CASE! AND THANK! YOU!
However, your opinion of great power politics is based on your Western, controversial world view. We need an Asian/Chinese theory of great power politics (which value harmony over controversy) for balance.
thank you lecturer. U see China no difference from other nations.
PirateJiang this is the meat and potatoes of rational IR theory
Pourquoi Chine, Japon et Corée du sud ne PEUVENT pas s'entendre ? Avec ce genre de discours et individu aux états-unis, vous pouvez être sûr qu'il n'y aura jamais un arrangement pacifique et acceptable pour deux parties entre Chine-Japon et Japon-Corée du sud !!! (également Chine-Inde !)
He makes the assumption (1:05) that China will continue to grow for the next twenty or thirty years at the fast pace that it has grown for the last twenty or thirty years. If you are willing to accept that assumption then go ahead and spend an hour and twenty-two minutes.
"Japan well might have nuclear weapons " how much possibility is there?
well, probably after all these long years, things changed...
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It depends on the USA's will !!!
The westerns are good at analyzing things by using all methodologies they had while through the elites' mindsets.
This is wrong.
So many westerns emphasize the westerns' values. And it seems that they completely don't know what values for most Chinese civilians
Who gives u de right to ask sush a question?
De question itself is a clear position against China.
Bravo
You should see what National Endorsement For Democracy against China and Asia and around the world.