They Are Lying To You About US Inflation
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- Inflation in the US ticked up to 3.2% and Jerome Powell along with the media is saying there is an inflation problem.
If you look at the data, systemic inflation in the US is gone and the only things holding inflation up are profiteering energy and insurance companies and the high interest rates themselves.
The truth is - US CPI has been below 2% for several months if you exclude the lagging Shelter indicator, but keeping rates high risks sending the economy into deflation.
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Whenever a CPI report comes out, I come listen to Sasha.
The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.
Yes, truly, investing in the market, even if it's just the S&P 500, can keep up with inflation, because the growth rate of stocks will always exceed the inflation rate. But if you don't have the courage, you could just invest with a financial advisor, which even has greater return on investments, while securing your investment against losses.
Keeping money in the bank is like paying banks and the Govemment. Here's how it works: The bank gives out your money as loan, and charge interest obviously higher than inflation rate, and then give you, the depositor, interest lower than inflation rate. That means net loss for you. That is why I prefer to invest, and on average, my advisor makes returns that always beats inflation!
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Amber Dawn Brummit turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
I think the government knows exactly what they are doing. They just play dumb because they are getting a lot of 💵 from energy/insurance companies. It’s honestly pretty sick
So in summary, "None of them have a clue what the f*** it is they're actually doing !"
It unfortunately just keeps looking that way.
I usually agree with Sasha but on this one I have to strongly disagree, I do not have as high an opinion of them as he does.
😂😂😂😂😂@@lukeandrew3335
@@SashaYanshinyes, but I would argue they actually do know what they are doing. They know the longer they play this bs, the longer they can squeeze some money... It's pure corruption
It's definitely not that their banking buddies are making record profits thanks to current rates and will continue to do so until they drop much, much lower. No corruption here.
By far the best financial channel on youtube.
I wish more people would watch this rather than all the other 'Stock market crash' bollocks.
Sasha, thanks for your work. Objective, rational, eloquent.
Amazing find on the insurance numbers. Killing it as usual @SashaYanshin. You always hit the macro and the details alike. Many thanks!
Thanks! I did think it was pretty hilarious that they printed that in the report given how the insurance industry is pretending there are reasons for the price hikes.
@@SashaYanshin Kind of a problem when you have to show profits to shareholders and quell consumer sentiment at the same time.
i dont think they are stupid, i think their actual goals are just very different to what they state
I really enjoy your channel. Always well put over and goes against the others in RUclips.
I just call it how I see it. A pretty simple approach!
The govt / fed can say whatever they want about inflation and we just have to stomach it. They have zero accountability and it shows. All I know is my grocery bill, utility bills, insurance and property taxes keep increasing at an alarming rate.
Great stuff Sasha.
Thank you!
Thoroughly enjoyed it as always.
Thank you!
Fantastic breakdown.
Great DD. Thank you Sacha.
:) Thanks!
Amusing as always.
Amazing content as always 👏
Preach Sasha!!! Only person talking about insurance companies profiteering
It's funny because it literally says it in black and white in the Annual Report :))
Tbh insurance companies have taken a battering over the last decade with nat cats, COVID, Russia Ukraine etc, and they take the volatility and smooth it out for everyone else. So 2023 was a benign year and they made bank...it's got to last them through who knows what else is coming round the corner. It's a fairly competitive market so margins will be squeezed and new capital and player attracted to the market, driving down prices, if it's seen as being massively profitable.
Thanks mate
Thanks for watching!
Another brilliant video Sasha!
🙏
Keep up the good work Sasha !
👍
Great video, as always. Thank you 😊😊😊
Great analysis as always Sasha!
Makes sense professor 👍
I am a fan of your analysis.
Thank you!
One of your best videos yet
Top man
Glad to see you haven't run out of analogies
I've used the rear view mirror one a lot!
Love it 👍
Thanks!
Looking forward to your analysis of UK inflation next week
awesome , informative video, I was wondering if you should also start stock recommendations videos again
I've never recommended any stocks - I shared analysis some time ago, but (don't take this the wrong way) - your comment is a big part of why I don't do that anymore. I absolutely do not want people to misconstrue interesting analysis as some kind of financial advice, etc.
Wow thanks Sasha, as always this videos are eyes opener.
Great video as always Sasha. Love the amount of analysis and commonsense thinking - refreshing to find someone that calls 'a spade, a spade' but actually tells you what the spade is made of (if that makes sense). Hoping you will be publishing a video on the recent UK CPI and BoE news this week, interested to get your thoughts on if you think UK CPI is also in the same 'death loop' as the US with Housing costs propping up inflation and the Central Bank are not willing to reduce rates as a result, but its because the interest rate is so high that is causing Housing to increase!
Nice video mystic meg
?
@@SashaYanshin there used to be an old creepy woman. Who was on the national lottery. She would guess the numbers with planets or something.. google it. You must not have got the reference.
Loved it
Thanks!
I always find the random objects they use to measure inflation, (in the UK) bizarre.
Airfryers/wigs made from squirrels/custom leotards made from unicorn mane.......
All I know is my mortgage will jump by £150 next month and my food shop is still going up every week.
Thanks Sasha
Amazing channel
I like Sasha, very interesting content.
Thank you!
I have to go back to check if I was watching an old video. Sasha keeps saying about that shelter is the reason the number actually doesn’t go down for long time now and people still don’t get it. I’ve learned long time ago thanks to you ♥️
Make deep dive on UK spring budget please !! :)
I agree. I noticed there was a few things that were contributing to inflation. Shelter insurance medical transportation. Food and energy are stable or disinflation.
I wonder if that’s why the stock market reversed and moved up.
Also if there’s a chance they might cut rates in March.
You have to understand that the one percent needs that money more than all the rest of us. So please be happy knowing that all your money is going to the one percenters.
It fills me with a warm feeling all over... Or is that the one percenters zipping up?
I always enjoy your perspective. Now if the market would follow your lead! It’s been a dreary 3 years!
In the world of insurance, beware,
Their promises often seem rare,
With premiums high,
And claims they deny,
You'll find frustration and despair.
C Munger 1968
I loved the bit on car insurance. We're getting totally screwed over in the UK too.
Ah CARtel, I see what you did there. Anyways, great video, great insights. As usual.
haha! Thank you!
Don’t listen to Mortimer below .. love your work and the down to earth content. Keep it up
🥳🥳🥳🥳
Sasha for Fed Prezzie !!
Sasha, how do I know your commentary is spot on? If I go back to your past vlogs, you predicted the exact same situation you describing today - you already told us so!! Well done!!!
Ha! Thank you! And yeah - the Shelter holding up the rest of inflation when the rest of inflation is already at less than 2% has been obvious for a year now.
I genuinely find it weird how this is apparently not obvious to everybody else.
@@SashaYanshinit is obvious
Same is happening in Uk but nothing will be done about it because they only care about themselves
When do you think rates will come down? Do you think stock market will pop after even though it's already at all time highs? Why shouldn't I worry about the Buffet indicator? Thanks.
very sweary vid this time. Love it!
Can you do a similar anaylsis of the Bank of England? I'd be interested to see what similarities/differences there are and most crucially why the UK economy is doing so monumentally badly amongst its' peers.
A decrease in the federal funds rate does not automatically mean that the bankrate will decrease. While the federal funds rate and bankrate can often move in the same direction, they are influenced by different factors and their relationship can vary depending on market conditions. Even if the housing inflation went down due to bankrate going down it, result would be higher inflation in other sectors. Throught history inflation came in multiple waves and i completely understand they are afraid of that.
Good job. Do you still buy FVRR? After decent report nothing good is happening.
Can you include links to your sources in the video description? Id really love to read it all myself. Its very interesting
The inflation report? Or the Berkshire Hathaway Annual report? I can include sources, but they are hyper easy to find if you just google them.
brilliant as ever Sasha. I love the deep dive into the false claims of the insurance industry as they pump premiums everywhere.
The stock market agreed with you today. Market up. AI mania in full bloom. AI stocks up big.
They AI train doesn't have any brakes :)
@@SashaYanshin I owned NVIDA last year and sold it at about 145 after a 10+ percent gain in a month. I thought I was a genius. :(
100% agree on the reason for inflation. It isnt about moving though, I didnt move house but the mortgage finished its fixed term so went up loads. People's fixed term mortgages only last 2-5 years.
I live the blund and truthful way this guy is making vidoes, i think it's very hard to do funny financial content and this is spot on, good knowledge good laugh
Great job Alex !
Hi, I'm based in the UK. I want to start my journey in the share market. I would like to buy Unilever as my first purchase. Could you tell which platform is good to maintain my portfolio and considering ISA too. Pls let me know. Thank you.
Hi Sasha,
“Services less energy services” is increased by more than 5% and has significant weight isn’t it?
Isn’t services the most sticky part which the FED is worried about?
Liked todays vid', but sarcasm way down at 33%....this is a worry.
But impressions up by 24% so not all bad.
It's like the Bank of England concerned by wage inflation so can't cut rates, when the reason people want wage rises is because their mortgage payments have sky rocketed due to the high interest rates. 🤦♂
and no words were minced today ... 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Thank you for your knowledgeable review, only person now on RUclips not panicking about sticky inflation and u-turn of FED lol, can you update inflation and economic future in UK, thank you
This is an awesome video and your research is great. Thank you sasha. I have to say what's wrong with us. We just accept everything and why can't we make a stand. Insurance is mashing a killing!!!! Love you and your info, stay true!!!! We appreciate you!🎉
With inflation at its highest in 40 years, uncertainty clouding the global markets, and a high volatility index, it's about time I review my financial plans to secure my future. I'd appreciate insights on how to allocate a large portfolio, let's say $250k.
look into things like real estate and stocks that pay annual dividends or better still, get a license professional who can implement a personalized financial plan based on your unique goals, needs & risk tolerance
Agreed, having the right choice of advice is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and has just yielded 100% from early last year to date. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal tho this could take another year.
@@maria_casey truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor... mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Can't divulge much, I get guidance from ''Karen Lynne Chess'' you'd most likely find her basic info on the internet, she's quite a veteran with over two decades of experience, her qualifications speak for itself.
insightful comments, amazing! just googled Karen Lynne Chess and spotted her consulting page no sweat.. was able to schedule a call session, thanks for putting this out..
Is VUAG now better than VUSA for long term growth? (Now it has been added to Vanguards UK platform)? Is the return the same from both if manually reinvesting dividends?
yup, as long as people dont have to live in a building, commute to work, or use energy in any way then inflation is going down and everything is great. good to know.
This is great 😂
Definitely a strong hair day. Approved!
There's nothing like cooking the books!
Who could have seen that coming?! 🤣
I know, right?
They won't drop rates when markets are at all time highs.
13:30 Great impression of Adam Sandler in Little Nicky
Love your content Sasha. don't give in to the suit - sayers . Keep wearing that same henly!
The same way in the UK that all this inflation definitely isn't blatant profiteering seen in record profits of energy producers and supermarkets etc for example.
Back to great analysis. Prefer these to your opinions on taxing the rich.
The stock market can also crash upwards
What’s your thoughts on PPI?
Given the years of ridiculous ly low rates, we can have high rates for a change. ( But not high by historical standards) I assume this applies in us as well.
I would have said buy the dip but the bond and even more so stock markets virtually ignored the 'higher than expected' report so far, rightfully. The Fed are old and slow and over hiked but I expect even they will begin to cut maybe in June.
So stock prices would keep coming up?
Well they must know what they’re doing. Like you said the politicians benefit from funding from organisations like insurance companies so perhaps it’s quite possibly they also benefit from the banks (high mortgage rates ), and the energy companies too?
The price of gasoline and diesel has gone up in March. My insurance payment went up in March, like it has every month. I expect the March CPI to be higher.
Sasha is the best 😂
🙏
Blows my mind how media are such parrots.
I think the Fed believes that they can hold rates for longer than necessary because they can always just slash rates substantially at the first sign of trouble. They therefore don't feel the need to finesse the lowering of rates and risk being blamed if inflation does re-emerge for whatever reason.
Would be nice not to induce the trouble in the first place that requires a sudden reduction in rates!
@@SashaYanshin Agreed! But as you eloquently mentioned in your video they are all f*ing useless!
That's risky. If they cut at the first sign of trouble it means 100% recession. Cutting fast at the last possible moment is the worst thing they could do.
Falling CPI is what you see when you are entering a recession
George Carlin's bit comes to mind: "It's a big club... and you ain't in it". Well joke's on you G.C. I own shares in Berkshire XD
🙏 and a wo🙏 😅. Ppl r delulu!!
Greater Toronto, Canada. Sorry to say renta are still going up month after mpnth by hundreds of dollars.
You can selectively strip out inflation categories until there is zero inflation. Housing costs didn't make it into inflation data for the last 2 decades. Now that they finally are, we should ignore them?
I’m loading up on PREMM as theve started production and is up from here
Grain storage four seeds is a problem because of how Monsanto and other companies control the seed Market.
Farmers cannot grow their own seeds but have to renew annual seasonal contracts with the seed suppliers if they wish to use any grain or seed left over from last year's purchase. The issue is that the renewal of the contract requires you to make an overly large purchase of seed and grain that you will not use up in a single season. This forces Farmers to have to acquire Moreland or storage units to continue holding all the seed and grain they cannot use but cannot afford to waste
Its more comfortable to think the economy is being mismanaged rather than the alternative.
I don’t find comfort in pointing out the obvious.
I do get what your saying Sasha, but everything is so inflated already that a lower inflation right isnt gonna bring the currently super high prices of groceries, car parts, tools mostly everything is 50% higher than what they used to be & i dont see anything fixing it as we do nothing to address price gouging. Yes you mentioned but i DO NEED prices to go down and i mean substantially or this game isnt really worth playing......see my dilemma
I have GEICO car insurance and can confirm that the cost for a 6-months of insurance recently doubled for no obvious reason
What do you mean, no obvious reason? Haven't you heard that natural disasters are on the up?! 😂
@@SashaYanshin lol. Criminals
High interest rates are keeping owners in their homes as are HIGH PROPERTY TAXES. My taxes are currently capped but if I were to sell and move to the same home in the city I live, I’d no longer be grandfathered under capped property taxes and my annual tax payment would QUADRUPLE.
Taxes, high interest rates, and the overall skyrocketing cost of living are keeping me and home owners like me locked tightly into our homes just to survive. The US economy is decimating us working stiffs
Many vegetables and fruit are at 2019 price levels but bread, jams and some other food items are still elevated and overpriced. I plan on picking a lot of berries this summer to make plenty of jams, pies and other baked items.
Warren Buffet made my car insurance rate go up to $800 for 6 months despite low mileage and haven't filed a claim in over a decade. (And that one smudge was when I had hit a raccoon at night when I was with State Farm.)