Mortgage rates skyrocketing back up to 7% is a tough one for real estate investors especially. Expect more forced selling to happen later in 2024 and into 2025. Track the data for your ZIP Code on Reventure App: www.reventure.app
The house you highlighted for $422K was $230K in 2021. There is no fantasy world where that house doubles in price and became worth what they are asking. When they drop it back to $230K again then the price is right until you factor in property taxes and insurance. Then forget it.
Nick - this Florida situation is not what is happening in almost every other housing market. Here in california comps are still going UP, and inventory of existing homes is still low.
@@RBAILEY57 My wife and I really like it here the people are super super friendly. It is definitely a more laid-back place to live compared to Phoenix and I grew up also in Chicago just north in the suburbs . Houses are starting to come down here a bit I would say something like 2 to 3% In our neighborhood you used to sell your house less than a week now it is taking like 50 days if you have a nice clean house . All we need down here is good Chinese food and some Mexican food in this place would be perfect
@@bhupesh0111idk how you think prices will stay high. Our generation refuses to buy these homes. Something will break eventually. There are a lot of us out there who have been saving and waiting and we will continue saving and waiting. Older generations are dying off and eventually those homes will drop lower than you expect just to get rid of them.
Unfortunately (or rather fortunately for me), I highly doubt it will drop anywhere near that level. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 20% drop though. There are just way too many people itching to get into a home, and will do so when prices drop enough.
I live in central Florida Daytona area.. There are 2-3 houses daily listing for sale on my street! All over the city, places for sale. High insurance rates, crime, overpopulation, hurricanes,floods, overbuilt. People had enough! Moving back north and outwest
My wealthy California neighbor moved to Florida 3 years ago - said it was the worst financial decision of his life. His house was flooded the first year, his roof was torn off the next year, just after he rebuilt. Then his insurance rates tripled. He said it's close to a 7-figure loss, he's selling and moving to Arizona.
So why is there a waiting list for new homes in all the new developments north of Daytona?? For every person leaving Florida there are 2 moving here. And if you move back north, you trade high insurance payments for high property taxes. No net gain
Buyers EVERYWHERE need to go on STRIKE. Renters need to double up, so landlord pricing power is diminished. Both sale prices and rental rates are still FAR above fundamental factors that produce a healthy, balanced market. Consumers must fight back against the last several years of abuse from the market and property owners/operators.
Im a property owner and investor with hundreds of properties. You’re wrong. It isn’t us it is the market offering cheap money up until recently. Cheap money creates inflation. I was able to buy a 25000 square foot property for 1.9%. That is crazy and that is your government printing money to keep the economy going. Hopefully rates go to 17% to help you as long as you don’t lose your source of income. At 17% though payments will be high, unemployment will be Carter era and prices will be low. Just have cash. I have about 4 million in reserves ready to buy……thanks to your government for running inflation up by printing 1 trillion every 80 days. Get an education so you stop voting for the non primaried Kamala and installed Biden. Facts.
@@Mobev14 million in reserves disappears pretty quickly when you have hundreds of empty properties to pay taxes on and they're all underwater and you can't sell them. Just saying. If you think you're safe you're naive.
Hahaha they're not mutually exclusive, soft markets usually drive rent up. People either have to buy or rent, that's why rents actually spiked in a lot of areas even in the depths of 08, people got foreclosed on and had to go to the rental market. Anyways, pick a struggle.
I love how this channel really breaks down the concepts of Cap Rate vs 10 Year Govt Treasury Rates. I never realized that and always felt that investors were trying to have a monopoly on the home sales in the country. Thank you for the clarification.
Houses have gone from being homes to families to investments for greedy people, making them unaffordable for most people. I don't feel sorry for their troubles now. I am a homeowner who has seen great appreciation. However, it does no good unless you want to sell, and you have to buy somewhere else at the same inflated prices after you pay a small fortune in real estate fees.
Thanks, Nick. As always your savvy analysis is logical and makes sense. I see some people rubbish your views but the market is over valued and irrational. There's a lot of house poor people out there with mortgage stress, rising debts, taxes and insurance costs. Retail trade has been decimated and many are hustling overtime just to pay the bills. There's a huge wave of downside reality yet to be realized in parts of Florida. Tourists won't be coming and public services will be slashed. Get ready for property bargains.
My coworker was begging for the rate to go down. He kept saying the mortgage rate would drop with it. Well interest rates have gone up, causing prices to plummet. You need to raise the fed above inflation. We never did that. Powell did it wrong!
Some of these investors are the big forehead mouth breathers you would expect to buy and sell their own shit to themselves, and finally lose money on the deal.
If you use his service for an entire year and and it helps you buy a $400,000 home, the total cost of his service for you would be just over 0.1% of the home cost. Meanwhile, you pay a realtor 30x as much to do … what realtors do, I guess.
@@somehandle215 You are certainly entitled to your opinion, of course, but I don’t think anything will convince me that $40 for an acute need would warrant that price. It’s basically a data aggregator, certainly useful, but not impossible to do without it. Also wouldn’t plan to use an agent personally.
There were some who said this would happen. Who wants to buy a MBS for overpriced homes of overstretched consumers? Auto defaults are increasing, foreclosures are increasing and the banks are all in bad spots.
200k for houses like this when it hits bottom. Over priced and the taxes and insurance wont go down until home prices come down. Taxes and Insurance take a few years to go down after the housing market goes way down. If you're lucky, 6 years or so.
Small invester jn FL here. We own a house this HOA, cookie-cutter houses neighborhood. I saw a new listing near by renting for $2400/m. Our rent is $1600. Insane.
I'm finally seeing housing prices come down a little and inventory go up in MA. We'll be one of the last markets to see housing prices come down but if its already happening here I expect that next year we'll see a big shift in the housing market going from a sellers market to a buyers market. I would expect rents to follow suit with RE prices. Let's see where we are next summer. Great job Nick sticking to your thesis despite the countless haters online! Cheers!
They cannot legally due that. Related party transaction must be at market value. However, as a business , they can use the loss to reduce its tax burden.
Why would anyone want to buy in Florida as investor or a home owner with the cost of insurance skyrocketing. Houston is another place I would never invest in because of Florida heat and crime.
I’ve been watching Naples area and well… while inventory is up, days on market are longer and prices are down but only a little -its still overpriced especially after recent flooding and hurricane damage….i guess increasing mortgage rates aren’t killing the deals as many of the buys are cash transactions and a big part of the population is transient-there for winter and the head back home…rent vs buying risk reward isn’t there
Who the heck wants to tie up there money for ten years to buy a 10 year Treasury note at 4.27% when the real inflation rate is around 8-10%. That's like giving the government money to borrow from you for ten years at a loss to you for anywhere from 3-6% a year. That would be stupid. The government has to offer 8-10% on a government bond for anyone to even consider loaning money to the government through a government bond. So the fed has a dilemma. They want to lower rates but no one wants to buy there loans at lower and lower interest rates. Doesn't make any sense. So pretty much the fed is the only one that's going to be buying these crappy bonds if they can. Big problem for the fed since they want to lower rates but no one wants to loan them money at the ridiculously low rates their offering.
imagine driving a car with a left and a right button, buttons that you can only push every 10 seconds, now imagine you can open the window and yell "I'm going to go right" while you wait to push. That's what the FED does, and that's what the economy is all banged up and could fall off a cliff at any moment.
I moved from Tampa to Santa Clara a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home there, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? Looks like NVDA, TSM and AMD and AVGO are strong buys this week.
well you could put a downpayment on a home and as well diversify as much as you can into Ai, energy and big pharm. stocks like Pfizer and JnJ, ASML, MLM and S&P 500 ETFs.
Certain ai companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I making a whooping $738k in Q4 last year.
Monica Mary Strigle, you'll be in luck at this time of year to have a conversation. lady is hot topic in downtown manhattan and you must not be and accredited investor. Just browse.
I hope Blackstone, Black Rock, Fidelity and all those financial institutions that got in the housing market in drove up home prices, I'll get their ass hammered, I hope prices dropped 75% and everybody that bought a home in the past 5 years get screwed.
Real-estate needs to understand that monthly mortgage payments are more affected by the purchase price than the interest rate. Realtors need to stop cheering for lower interest rates and start leaning on sellers to accept affordable prices. Further lowering the interest rates will only mildly help the real estate market; lowering the house prices 30-50% will significantly help. Current housing affordability index is way over what is affordable with today's wages.
Interest rates are much more important than the cost of a home. People can get a lot of home for cheaper mortgage payments. When interest rates are up, home sales suffer.
Those cap rates never take into account appreciation - which during the last half decade averaged 15%. Treasuries, CD’s snd savings accounts do not appreciate. 5% today after taxes and inflation is zero. If you’re “living” off 5% interest you are simply draining your assets. Real estate appreciates long term, at minimum, at the rate of inflation.
The bifurcation in Houston is nothing new. The West side has always been where the rich live, which is why homes are more expensive and inventories are low -- rich people are able to protect their wealth (better financial decisions, influencing policy, etc.). It's just the same-ol income/wealth inequality.
I don’t know for other investors but for me, a medium size real estate investor per Nicks definition, I don’t care what treasury bond yield is. Real estate provides cash flow, tax advantage and I can use leverage to invest with reasonable interest rate. There is risk for sure, but the risk is small compared to the risk of losing the cash flow, tax benefit and equity increase
Another solid rundown of current market info. It was cool to see the filters you can apply on reventure to see reduced price homes in higher income areas. btw Bifurcated has the "C" and "A" switched around at 12:24
5:55 wait a minute, the rental investor makes way more than me on his $80k down payment in 2020 on his 400k home than I made on my $400k cash on treasury from just the price appreciation. A cool $200k return on 80k down. That’s the big difference so you are no way getting the same return sitting on the couch with a bigger pile of your own money vs the guy having just 1/5 of what you have. Borrow the money and make an even bigger return.
- Rising rates is indeed VERY detremental for EVERYTHING that is rate sensitive, like real estate. - No, interest rates do reflect inflation or deflation.
Investors are bad for neighborhoods. Renters don't care about the properties and there is always high turnover. I wish all real estate would crash to 50% of where it is now. If they loose their shirt - doesn't bother me.
Actually, the Fed didn't lose control of the economy. The bond market speculatively priced in huge and rapid rate cuts about to happen, which is being refuted by the economic data coming in. The jobs market isn't slowing as much as expected and inflation remains persistent and just above the 2% target. So the bond market is adjusting their expectations to slower rate cuts. The Fed funds rate might not reduce to 4% until the middle of next year, rather than by the end of 2024 that was priced in.
I feel like when you talk about florida youre only talking about south florida. What about jax or other north florida. Also were getting PITI costs skyrocketing so mortgage aint everything.
These homes flooded somewhat and owners take a cost loss bc they can’t afford the repairs. So I’m thinking mold could be a problem or electrical issues? That’s like buying cars that came out of Hurricane Katrina disaster.
For those moving cash from money market to other assets given the Fed pivot, what are some income-producing assets (not physical real estate) that you are prioritizing over the next year to offset your loss in income?
Dividend Stock and REITs. As interest going down, I think these two asset types are going to be more attractive. Besides getting dividend income, I expect them to get appreciation in value as
As long as those divvies keep increasing, even in a recession, that’s what i need. I’m thinking huge percentage in SCHD, with smaller amounts in other areas not covered by the fund, like REITS and BDC’s.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 75k cash earning 4% interest, 685k in roth ira, 120k in 401k, Gold and silver bars. age is 58. My advisr helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed shortly.
Buy a home only if you live in an area that just does not drop. Most of Long Island , NY is that way. Even The undesirable neighborhoods do not drop much. You can’t make this up. Maybe I will get lucky and finally see a price drop… not!! 💭😀✌️
That house is not worth 250k in that area. It must be that the person was in charge of buying that house he is from up north or California, thinking that house is worth the same house in his state 😉
You said no one foresaw interest rates going up after a cut, but you are wrong. If you watch Steven Van Metre or Jeff over at Eurodollar University, for nearly a year they have said repeatedly this would happen because historically, it always does. The FFR that the Fed cuts has nothing to do with any other interest rate. You don't understand that so this is why you are shocked by it. also, by your own app, that 410K house is still 30% overvalued. that is 123K still over priced. So it needs to go around 280K before anyone can begin to look at it.
When they lowered by 50 points, I knew we were screwed! Been waiting to buy a new home for 3 years, pissed me off to drop 50 points. I know FED is its own entity,however I think that big gov was involved because this admin candidate doesn’t get how the economy works!!!!! She can’t explain “inflation “. So interest rates low so they can fool people who don’t get it. Prices still high and more inflation coming making home interest rates higher. Good job FED
Jerome Powell was trumps pick who Biden should have fired. He kept rates at Zero when they should have been about 3%. Now Americans are suffering from his bad decisions.
Just like a stock option is a derivative that derives value from an underlying stock, real estate is also a derivative asset that derives its value from the value of long term US bonds in this case the 30 year mortgage which further derives value as a derivative of the 10 year treasury benchmark. What happens if the US long bond is diving off a cliff as the value of future dollars is plunging off a cliff and how will that affect the value of real estate that derives its value off the plunging US long bonds. As I said before when the US government defaults on its debt via inflation they won’t go bankrupt YOU WILL.
I first watched you in 2020. You promised that the market would crash. And soon. Hasn't happened. Yeah someday it will happen. Just that you definitely don't know when.
you are always predicting the future with surety. how well does your reventure app trend with historical, concrete data? I would like to see that for better assurance on your product. and not for just one county that matches well, but a lumped state or national average to understand the residuals fit.
Mortgage rates skyrocketing back up to 7% is a tough one for real estate investors especially. Expect more forced selling to happen later in 2024 and into 2025.
Track the data for your ZIP Code on Reventure App: www.reventure.app
Are you taking Finasteride or Minoxidil? My hair is like yours. I'm considering taking it! Thanks ❤
Market is wrong, inflation is yesterday’s news, you follow M2, you’d know better.
The FED has never been in control of the economy. The yields will go lower. They might go higher in 2026 the earliest, if anything…
@@issenvan1050What is M2? Thanks 👍🏽
😂
The house you highlighted for $422K was $230K in 2021. There is no fantasy world where that house doubles in price and became worth what they are asking. When they drop it back to $230K again then the price is right until you factor in property taxes and insurance. Then forget it.
Do not buy a home now!!!!!!
I'll do whatever I want
I did it earlier today
👍100% correct
So when? Been waiting for 4 damn years
@@mle3857 my opinion would be last quarter of 2025 or beginning of 2026. Gl
The fed did not lose control of the economy, they never had control to begin with.
LOL, threw gas on the fire...
Anyone who buys now will immediately be underwater, the crash just started.
We bought in 2022 and underwater in Florida! Big mistake
@@amandabrau-v6w . Double sense of the meaning!
@@MrSupernova111😂
@@amandabrau-v6w What a bummer!
@@amandabrau-v6wyou’re not alone. Many did the same thing. And now Florida’s real estate market is non existent.
Nick - this Florida situation is not what is happening in almost every other housing market. Here in california comps are still going UP, and inventory of existing homes is still low.
Nick, excellent video.
I'm still hanging on the sidelines waiting for home prices to become reasonable again.
Native Floridian here and I love your content, very insightful.
I bought in southern Alabama 5.5 years ago.
Being 30 miles north of the Gulf of Mexico and no payment is a BLESSING
Southern Alabama is great value compared to Florida.
We are buying in north Alabama! Closing next week! Can’t wait to get out of Florida!
@@RBAILEY57
My wife and I really like it here the people are super super friendly.
It is definitely a more laid-back place to live compared to Phoenix and I grew up also in Chicago just north in the suburbs .
Houses are starting to come down here a bit I would say something like 2 to 3%
In our neighborhood you used to sell your house less than a week now it is taking like 50 days if you have a nice clean house .
All we need down here is good Chinese food and some Mexican food in this place would be perfect
2:23. That is a $90K house.
Prices will drop to 2008-2009 levels.
By then u will be in the grave keep dreaming 😂😂
@@bhupesh0111you must not have been alive then.
@@bhupesh0111idk how you think prices will stay high. Our generation refuses to buy these homes. Something will break eventually. There are a lot of us out there who have been saving and waiting and we will continue saving and waiting. Older generations are dying off and eventually those homes will drop lower than you expect just to get rid of them.
I like how people speak with such confidence as if they have a crystal ball
@@boejiden1065this little ol thing called INFLATION
When it gets below $180k, it is getting close to where it SHOULD be priced.
Unfortunately (or rather fortunately for me), I highly doubt it will drop anywhere near that level. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 20% drop though. There are just way too many people itching to get into a home, and will do so when prices drop enough.
I live in central Florida Daytona area.. There are 2-3 houses daily listing for sale on my street! All over the city, places for sale. High insurance rates, crime, overpopulation, hurricanes,floods, overbuilt. People had enough! Moving back north and outwest
My wealthy California neighbor moved to Florida 3 years ago - said it was the worst financial decision of his life. His house was flooded the first year, his roof was torn off the next year, just after he rebuilt. Then his insurance rates tripled. He said it's close to a 7-figure loss, he's selling and moving to Arizona.
So why is there a waiting list for new homes in all the new developments north of Daytona?? For every person leaving Florida there are 2 moving here. And if you move back north, you trade high insurance payments for high property taxes. No net gain
Buyers EVERYWHERE need to go on STRIKE. Renters need to double up, so landlord pricing power is diminished. Both sale prices and rental rates are still FAR above fundamental factors that produce a healthy, balanced market. Consumers must fight back against the last several years of abuse from the market and property owners/operators.
You think property owners haven’t dealt with inflated costs over the past couple of years?
Im a property owner and investor with hundreds of properties. You’re wrong. It isn’t us it is the market offering cheap money up until recently. Cheap money creates inflation. I was able to buy a 25000 square foot property for 1.9%. That is crazy and that is your government printing money to keep the economy going. Hopefully rates go to 17% to help you as long as you don’t lose your source of income. At 17% though payments will be high, unemployment will be Carter era and prices will be low. Just have cash. I have about 4 million in reserves ready to buy……thanks to your government for running inflation up by printing 1 trillion every 80 days. Get an education so you stop voting for the non primaried Kamala and installed Biden. Facts.
@@Mobev1lol B.S. “I have 4 million in reserve and I’m spending my time on RUclips” 🤡
@@Mobev14 million in reserves disappears pretty quickly when you have hundreds of empty properties to pay taxes on and they're all underwater and you can't sell them. Just saying. If you think you're safe you're naive.
Hahaha they're not mutually exclusive, soft markets usually drive rent up. People either have to buy or rent, that's why rents actually spiked in a lot of areas even in the depths of 08, people got foreclosed on and had to go to the rental market.
Anyways, pick a struggle.
I love how this channel really breaks down the concepts of Cap Rate vs 10 Year Govt Treasury Rates. I never realized that and always felt that investors were trying to have a monopoly on the home sales in the country. Thank you for the clarification.
He is not a real estate investor and he has been warning people against house crash since 2020 while the national house price increased by 40%.
There was never a housing shortage.
They always talk about home buyers holding out. But never talk about investors leaving the real estate market.
Houses have gone from being homes to families to investments for greedy people, making them unaffordable for most people. I don't feel sorry for their troubles now. I am a homeowner who has seen great appreciation. However, it does no good unless you want to sell, and you have to buy somewhere else at the same inflated prices after you pay a small fortune in real estate fees.
You are literally paying for that appreciation every year with higher property taxes. It's bad if you want to stay but good if you want to sell.
Yup
I just googled the 30 year mortgage rate, Conv: 7.35% FHA: 6.70%. It's always higher than what the internet says.
Thanks, Nick. As always your savvy analysis is logical and makes sense. I see some people rubbish your views but the market is over valued and irrational. There's a lot of house poor people out there with mortgage stress, rising debts, taxes and insurance costs. Retail trade has been decimated and many are hustling overtime just to pay the bills.
There's a huge wave of downside reality yet to be realized in parts of Florida. Tourists won't be coming and public services will be slashed. Get ready for property bargains.
yup
My coworker was begging for the rate to go down. He kept saying the mortgage rate would drop with it. Well interest rates have gone up, causing prices to plummet. You need to raise the fed above inflation. We never did that. Powell did it wrong!
Some of these investors are the big forehead mouth breathers you would expect to buy and sell their own shit to themselves, and finally lose money on the deal.
I lived in FL for years when it was cheap and made financial sense. Now, it makes absolutely no sense for my family to move down there.
I’d get a premium plan if it was like $5 or $10 a month. Almost $40 a month is steep if it isn’t for a business.
If you use his service for an entire year and and it helps you buy a $400,000 home, the total cost of his service for you would be just over 0.1% of the home cost. Meanwhile, you pay a realtor 30x as much to do … what realtors do, I guess.
@@somehandle215 You are certainly entitled to your opinion, of course, but I don’t think anything will convince me that $40 for an acute need would warrant that price. It’s basically a data aggregator, certainly useful, but not impossible to do without it. Also wouldn’t plan to use an agent personally.
TBH, pretty excited it’s McRib season.
Hell yeah!
I thought the sirens in the background were in my neighborhood lol
There were some who said this would happen. Who wants to buy a MBS for overpriced homes of overstretched consumers? Auto defaults are increasing, foreclosures are increasing and the banks are all in bad spots.
I'm a builder in clearwater. These prices for "lot value" still are too high for me to be interested.
How much is a lot worth down there, $10K?
@@CryptoAlex40100
200k for houses like this when it hits bottom. Over priced and the taxes and insurance wont go down until home prices come down. Taxes and Insurance take a few years to go down after the housing market goes way down. If you're lucky, 6 years or so.
Small invester jn FL here.
We own a house this HOA, cookie-cutter houses neighborhood.
I saw a new listing near by renting for $2400/m.
Our rent is $1600.
Insane.
I'm finally seeing housing prices come down a little and inventory go up in MA. We'll be one of the last markets to see housing prices come down but if its already happening here I expect that next year we'll see a big shift in the housing market going from a sellers market to a buyers market. I would expect rents to follow suit with RE prices. Let's see where we are next summer. Great job Nick sticking to your thesis despite the countless haters online! Cheers!
Ditto here in Northern NJ. Here’s hoping our patience pays off in a few months!
They flipped it and renovated it and sold it to themselves and took the profits so now they are selling it for a loss
They cannot legally due that. Related party transaction must be at market value. However, as a business , they can use the loss to reduce its tax burden.
BLACKSTONE BETTER NOT GET A BAIL OUT. LET BLACKSTONE GO BANKRUPT
The real problem? Why the f is Residential property being used as Commercial property?
Too much credit was issued starting in the 1980s, which has become savings now and has no place to go. It's 1929 on steroids.
It's ALWAYS been commercial property. It's only recently that majority of people 'owned' their own homes.
You are absolutely right!
I wouldn't give you $70,000 for that piece of crab house so it has a lot of problems just from the street
Why would anyone want to buy in Florida as investor or a home owner with the cost of insurance skyrocketing. Houston is another place I would never invest in because of Florida heat and crime.
I’ve been watching Naples area and well… while inventory is up, days on market are longer and prices are down but only a little -its still overpriced especially after recent flooding and hurricane damage….i guess increasing mortgage rates aren’t killing the deals as many of the buys are cash transactions and a big part of the population is transient-there for winter and the head back home…rent vs buying risk reward isn’t there
The US Government has been on a spending spree unabated since 2008. It drives rates up regardless what the Fed says.
I own renter property will never buy in FLA
Who the heck wants to tie up there money for ten years to buy a 10 year Treasury note at 4.27% when the real inflation rate is around 8-10%. That's like giving the government money to borrow from you for ten years at a loss to you for anywhere from 3-6% a year. That would be stupid. The government has to offer 8-10% on a government bond for anyone to even consider loaning money to the government through a government bond. So the fed has a dilemma. They want to lower rates but no one wants to buy there loans at lower and lower interest rates. Doesn't make any sense. So pretty much the fed is the only one that's going to be buying these crappy bonds if they can. Big problem for the fed since they want to lower rates but no one wants to loan them money at the ridiculously low rates their offering.
Nick is always a ray of sunshine
More like a dark cloud of doom and gloom
@@amoss3035 doom and gloom sells
@@jasonjason5325if it bleeds it leads!
I just came here to say this lol
Yeah…. Real sunshine
ppl are gonna be caught offsides in a huge way, deflation is coming, not inflation, but that's what everyone wants you to think.
Pretty sure USA will experience hyperinflation.
yup
The FED is not supposed to have CONTROL. The markets supposed to be FREE
Bingo!
There's no such thing as free markets. Free market is a big lie.
You should have stayed in school.
The fed doesn’t have control. That’s why they cut rates by 50 basis points yet the 10 year treasury went up by 50 basis points
imagine driving a car with a left and a right button, buttons that you can only push every 10 seconds, now imagine you can open the window and yell "I'm going to go right" while you wait to push.
That's what the FED does, and that's what the economy is all banged up and could fall off a cliff at any moment.
I moved from Tampa to Santa Clara a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home there, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? Looks like NVDA, TSM and AMD and AVGO are strong buys this week.
it’s a personal decision, but according to Forbes, housing activities will remain stagnant for the most part of the year, so maybe hold off a little.
well you could put a downpayment on a home and as well diversify as much as you can into Ai, energy and big pharm. stocks like Pfizer and JnJ, ASML, MLM and S&P 500 ETFs.
Certain ai companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I making a whooping $738k in Q4 last year.
I'm an art collector, this is not very new to me but has a nuance to it. Can you assist me? how do I find a fduciary
Monica Mary Strigle, you'll be in luck at this time of year to have a conversation. lady is hot topic in downtown manhattan and you must not be and accredited investor. Just browse.
The market is flooded with condos in South Florida. It's scary!
What is scary is the building could literally fall down.
Just dropped to 3.9 in canada. But lots of repos happing and mortgage renewal too. . Most will lose homes here. 500 percent increase in repo in canada
Ive been trying to buy my first home in Michigan and it's nuts
I hope Blackstone, Black Rock, Fidelity and all those financial institutions that got in the housing market in drove up home prices, I'll get their ass hammered, I hope prices dropped 75% and everybody that bought a home in the past 5 years get screwed.
except they will in turn fire their employees to reduce losses on top of their RE losses
Real-estate needs to understand that monthly mortgage payments are more affected by the purchase price than the interest rate. Realtors need to stop cheering for lower interest rates and start leaning on sellers to accept affordable prices. Further lowering the interest rates will only mildly help the real estate market; lowering the house prices 30-50% will significantly help. Current housing affordability index is way over what is affordable with today's wages.
Interest rates are much more important than the cost of a home. People can get a lot of home for cheaper mortgage payments. When interest rates are up, home sales suffer.
Those cap rates never take into account appreciation - which during the last half decade averaged 15%. Treasuries, CD’s snd savings accounts do not appreciate.
5% today after taxes and inflation is zero. If you’re “living” off 5% interest you are simply draining your assets. Real estate appreciates long term, at minimum, at the rate of inflation.
Canada just did another .50 rate cut to 3.75! Is America that far behind?
Investors simply got too greedy! They are getting their just rewards now!
The bifurcation in Houston is nothing new. The West side has always been where the rich live, which is why homes are more expensive and inventories are low -- rich people are able to protect their wealth (better financial decisions, influencing policy, etc.). It's just the same-ol income/wealth inequality.
I don’t know for other investors but for me, a medium size real estate investor per Nicks definition, I don’t care what treasury bond yield is. Real estate provides cash flow, tax advantage and I can use leverage to invest with reasonable interest rate. There is risk for sure, but the risk is small compared to the risk of losing the cash flow, tax benefit and equity increase
Very fortuitous that the opening scene has a sign that states "humps ahead" followed by sirens.
Danger, Will Robinson!
Everyone I know is now selling....multiple places on my block for sale.....
Another solid rundown of current market info. It was cool to see the filters you can apply on reventure to see reduced price homes in higher income areas. btw Bifurcated has the "C" and "A" switched around at 12:24
Great Information very honest. I think Florida will see major changes in near future.
Most of the houses for sale around me are flips. Still sky high prices though
You continue to bring great information about the housing market that all people should pay close attention to.
That house is only worth 200 K tops.
Lots of great info! Thank u!
5:55 wait a minute, the rental investor makes way more than me on his $80k down payment in 2020 on his 400k home than I made on my $400k cash on treasury from just the price appreciation. A cool $200k return on 80k down. That’s the big difference so you are no way getting the same return sitting on the couch with a bigger pile of your own money vs the guy having just 1/5 of what you have. Borrow the money and make an even bigger return.
Anyone else notice that Nick never says all 3 Ws when saying his website? 😂
Keep up the good work Nick.
It's really unnecessary to say them
He did for this video. It might be because nowadays you can just type the domain name without the 3W and still access it .
@@t-tradenow I see what you’re saying… but did he? 14:18
YES!!!
- Rising rates is indeed VERY detremental for EVERYTHING that is rate sensitive, like real estate.
- No, interest rates do reflect inflation or deflation.
Investors are bad for neighborhoods. Renters don't care about the properties and there is always high turnover. I wish all real estate would crash to 50% of where it is now. If they loose their shirt - doesn't bother me.
Actually, the Fed didn't lose control of the economy. The bond market speculatively priced in huge and rapid rate cuts about to happen, which is being refuted by the economic data coming in. The jobs market isn't slowing as much as expected and inflation remains persistent and just above the 2% target. So the bond market is adjusting their expectations to slower rate cuts. The Fed funds rate might not reduce to 4% until the middle of next year, rather than by the end of 2024 that was priced in.
2:12 that house isn't worth more than 250k max. Anyone pays more for it than that, they are getting their head slapped hard.
Loads of inventory just sitting on the market out here. Nobody is buying.
Tell those employees to get labor jobs with restoration and demo construction. Plebtybof those jobs now.
When the bank rate went up the banks were quick to raise their rate but it goes down they put their rate up. Go figure.
I feel like when you talk about florida youre only talking about south florida. What about jax or other north florida. Also were getting PITI costs skyrocketing so mortgage aint everything.
What neighborhoods flooded in Houston? That's a filter I would recommend.
Times are changing in SWFL fast
Isnt the Fed always "concerned"?
The fed are criminals. They created this bs bubble pump. Never in America's history have homes jump 46% !!
Yeah....
Nah, it's transitory
They weren’t concerned when the housing market was exploding under Trump while they kept the interest rates at Zero.
Just like there is ALWAYS a crisis.
These homes flooded somewhat and owners take a cost loss bc they can’t afford the repairs. So I’m thinking mold could be a problem or electrical issues? That’s like buying cars that came out of Hurricane Katrina disaster.
Then demand will fall and supply will sit and stagflation and house prices fall.
Who's going to buy these houses? Another storm can come through in the future who wants to take that chance?
For those moving cash from money market to other assets given the Fed pivot, what are some income-producing assets (not physical real estate) that you are prioritizing over the next year to offset your loss in income?
Dividend Stock and REITs. As interest going down, I think these two asset types are going to be more attractive. Besides getting dividend income, I expect them to get appreciation in value as
As long as those divvies keep increasing, even in a recession, that’s what i need. I’m thinking huge percentage in SCHD, with smaller amounts in other areas not covered by the fund, like REITS and BDC’s.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 75k cash earning 4% interest, 685k in roth ira, 120k in 401k, Gold and silver bars. age is 58. My advisr helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed shortly.
How can i reach an advisor?
SHARON CRUMP CLINE is the advisr I use and i'm just putting this out here because you asked.
With increasing interest rates you get a safe return with no hassle and risk of property ownership.
Hurricane damage doesn't represent overall market trends... So far the market is not moving in a way that gives much hopes...
Investors ruined the market. Laws needed to block them 100%!!!
2:08 $120,000 is not correct. After commissions and closing costs they will lose more like $145,000 😢😮😢😮
Buy a home only if you live in an area that just does not drop. Most of Long Island , NY is that way. Even The undesirable neighborhoods do not drop much. You can’t make this up. Maybe I will get lucky and finally see a price drop… not!! 💭😀✌️
That house is not worth 250k in that area. It must be that the person was in charge of buying that house he is from up north or California, thinking that house is worth the same house in his state 😉
Nice home, very nice location, I’m keeping my eye on it.
You said no one foresaw interest rates going up after a cut, but you are wrong. If you watch Steven Van Metre or Jeff over at Eurodollar University, for nearly a year they have said repeatedly this would happen because historically, it always does. The FFR that the Fed cuts has nothing to do with any other interest rate. You don't understand that so this is why you are shocked by it. also, by your own app, that 410K house is still 30% overvalued. that is 123K still over priced. So it needs to go around 280K before anyone can begin to look at it.
But they are lowering cd rates? WTH????
When they lowered by 50 points, I knew we were screwed! Been waiting to buy a new home for 3 years, pissed me off to drop 50 points. I know FED is its own entity,however I think that big gov was involved because this admin candidate doesn’t get how the economy works!!!!! She can’t explain “inflation “. So interest rates low so they can fool people who don’t get it. Prices still high and more inflation coming making home interest rates higher. Good job FED
Jerome Powell was trumps pick who Biden should have fired. He kept rates at Zero when they should have been about 3%. Now Americans are suffering from his bad decisions.
Video color is much better now.
50 trillion national debt within 5 years. That is enough dough to buy every household in the U.S.
Just like a stock option is a derivative that derives value from an underlying stock, real estate is also a derivative asset that derives its value from the value of long term US bonds in this case the 30 year mortgage which further derives value as a derivative of the 10 year treasury benchmark. What happens if the US long bond is diving off a cliff as the value of future dollars is plunging off a cliff and how will that affect the value of real estate that derives its value off the plunging US long bonds. As I said before when the US government defaults on its debt via inflation they won’t go bankrupt YOU WILL.
I first watched you in 2020. You promised that the market would crash. And soon. Hasn't happened. Yeah someday it will happen. Just that you definitely don't know when.
So your genius comment is that he doesn't know the future? Name one person who does. I'll wait.
If you follow the Fed rates you will notice the rates follow the market.
you are always predicting the future with surety. how well does your reventure app trend with historical, concrete data? I would like to see that for better assurance on your product. and not for just one county that matches well, but a lumped state or national average to understand the residuals fit.
Let’s see that psychological buyer’s cycle graph to see where we stand .
BTW Opendoor is liquidating some again.
Insurance is worse than the six figure loss.
I’d give be $40k for that ugly house.
In places like Houston, elevation is everything.
The FED has never been in control of the economy. The yields will go lower. They might go higher in 2026 the earliest, if anything…
on your app a suggestion .. an unbanization / thug filter .. cuz that tends to reduces the safety of the area, crime and other things ..