How the Fed Pivot Will Affect Your Portfolio
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- Опубликовано: 9 дек 2022
- 💎Free Stocks, My TradingView Profile, and Social Links: linktr.ee/inthemoneyadam
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TradingView write-up and charts: www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/3r9Cm4pu-The-Inflation-of-the-1980s-Tells-the-Same-Story-Pivot-Decline/
Turn your phone sideways to see and use the charts better. Share your thoughts!
Also, Volcker became became Fed chair in '79, not '81. Which makes more sense with the increase in rates from 80-81. My b!
Do you follow Steve Hanke on the quantity theory of money? Rate hikes cannot reduce inflation?
5+% CPI by 2024.
Adam, I cannot tell you how much I love you and hope you and your brother are doing well. You are such a great guy! You will go far, my friend.
Idk how long it's taking for you to make these videos Adam but I deeply appreciate you putting out content despite what you're going through. It provides hope and positivity, hope that you are doing a tad better and the positivity in that you're working again and pushing forward through your obstacles 👍👍
My professor said “The Fed doesn’t cut rates to help you get a house or expand your business. They do it because somebody fucked up and broke something.”
Best lesson I learned in college 😂
And they raise rates to break the market.
Dumb. They love cutting rates, look what happened after 08. It’s the easiest way for them to build unlimited wealth through debt, passing the inflation on to the peasant workers 😂
I thought it was to prop up the stock market to get richer
Your professor is a dumbass
The question is, is the statement correct?
Could you please make this a series? Kind of like testing your hypothesis after every fed meeting?
Upvote, cause ITM needs to do this. Provided his health allows for it
@@aldrigforsent8862 Agree!
++
Brilliant idea
No worries for me, I don't try to time the market. When I see that stock drops below its fair value with some margin of safety - I buy. Past 5-6 months have been huge shopping spree for me. I've got literally nothing left of investing cash. Probably I will miss some occasions in the future months, but who cares as long as I got value?
I've only just started over the last couple of mnths. I've been doing plenty of research. In fact I'm really enjoying the aspect of learning and researching. Though I won't say I have gained or lost a fortune, I have actually been involved in all of these for a while. what’s your approach?
@@vergarasawyer3573 I sold my losing positions and moved to more defensive instruments and I never looked back as advised by my fiduciary financial advisor, 'Allina Dresslar Bell’ Partnered with Raymond James Financial Service Advisors,INC. she made up a wild narrative justifying my past decisions and attributing bad outcomes to risk.
It all depends on how long you're willing to hold for, stocks might likely tank further, but making serious gains in this downtrend wouldn't be a problem if you're a pro
@@waynespears1327 The importance of investing is undeniable, but when someone starts is even more important. When it comes to investing, timing is everything and having time in the market is going to be your most important asset if you will.. Compounding effect... enough said
@@waynespears1327 Thanks for telling me something I already knew. I put aside 150 grand into some growth stocks with a Financial advisor handling my portfolio. as for me I have personal stake in either using their products or lots of people in my circle who do. APPL, TSLA, NVDA. Along with ABBV and KO when I focused on dividends
Very well articulated; I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I'll be 56 in April and need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the looming inflation; my goal is to have at least $1 million by the age of 65.
You should have started a long time ago, and perhaps you should seek the assistance of a financial advisor to assist you in developing a viable and reachable plan.
Yes
@@jamesbarn3030 What is the procedure like? Has employing a FA proven quite profitable for you?
@@priscillagold3778 Definitely! All of this happened in less than a year after Carissa Wallin Palm told me what to do. I started with less than $100k and now I'm about 34,000 short of having a quarter million dollars.
@@jamesbarn3030 would it be worth looking into a financial advisor at a young age or wait it out until I’m a bit older? I’m a bit stuck on how to start the whole investing process
EVERY TIME ADAM POSTS A VIDEO I AM THE HAPPIEST PERSON IN THE WORLD. LOVE U MAN.
I LOVE YOU TOO BB CAKES
2nd that. It’s great stuff
@@dixztube Don’t be shy, there’s always room for one more
Facts
NO!! I AM!!
Missed hearing that outro! Great to see you be a solider for all of us even when not feeling 100%. You've changed many lives teaching us your financial knowledge were all still here supporting you and loving all your content.
I literally stopped watching a MeetKevin video to come here lmao
InTheMoney is the BEST financial content creator hands down
Thanks for every single video you make brother
Simple explanation for the Pivot not causing prices to crash further is the fact that the market has already priced things in. Though if that happens probably going to be a lot of chop before we see All time high's again. For all the hate/meme/jokes seen directed towards Powell on Fintwit i think he may be able to pull it off. People also forget the post covid/ukraine war supply chain issues causing messy pricing everywhere. Glad to see you're back at it & doing better man!
Love all your videos, Adam. Your explanations are so clear without all the BS and clickbait. Keep it up and get well soon 🙂
And with out those cummy wummy faces like he said before 😆 🤣
Adam you really are a teacher or something at heart, you have no idea how hard it is to be able to break down such complex situations to the layman for them to understand.
On top of that, just straight being honest in today's society should be the most admired, and it is for you man, you the best
I think that the difference between this inflation and past inflations is the amount of money the Fed has created over the last 15 or so years, and the precedent that has been set wherein the Fed will step in and create money to prevent any major fallout. 2020 is a perfect example. If things start to go south because of the sheer volume of leveraged loans that are in danger of default, the Fed will step in and we’ll be back to QE in no time. Accordingly, equities will go through the roof.
I really like your straightforward, concise, just the facts format. Also, no flashy or silly video titles or click bait thumbnails.
Maybe it's not as entertaining but definitely very informative. Well done, I hope you continue to do this.
I think there are a couple of variables that have changed since 2008.
1. the increase in financialization/tech in society will compress any changes into a smaller timeframe
2. there is a loss of believe in "the system", people are looking to game it by "timing", probably this means retails sticks around, Powell has to hold higher for longer and they hold the bag more
Excellent analysis and explanation of the dynamics possibly affecting the future economic landscape. It's rare to find such quality content on youtube and it is GREATLY appreciated. Like others have said, you have a gift in explaining these topics to us neophytes. Looking forward to follow-up videos on these subjects. Hope life is getting better for you and Eric.
I love that you went into the history much deeper than many articles and radio excerpts do showing multiple scenarios and how the market reacted to each one. Very informative. Even though I'm always watching your vidieos, RUclips realizes I like them so they are usually at the top of my suggested list, I just realized I'm not subscried. Fixed. Also, grats on a new sponsor.
I love the pic of Volker. He looks straight up Thug Life with that blunt, all he needs is some sunglasses. LOL Thanks for the great vid!
I love how Adam doesn’t seek fear. Every other finance RUclipsrs out there telling the world is going to end, market will crash since 2020 and on the other hand, Adam here making one great video after another.
Good point, everyone uses clickbait doom and gloom titles . Gets old . This guy gives good info
I’m still not very clear of the direction and how this video can help in trading anything .. do you guys wait for fed to pivot ?
I was watching Breakfast with Markus and Mark and saw the In the Money podcast about 2 weeks ago and I am HOOKED! Thank you Adam. You arrived just in time! I am at retirement age, and am rebuilding my brokerage account. I did well long investing over the decades and have yet to trade an option. School is in session and you are a great teacher.
Which one’s the In the Money podcast?
love you too man. make sure your handling you first and for most
And if we see a rally this next week, people will forget all about this and load up thinking they missed out. Just to later watch the markets yell cannon ball off the high dive.
Great video!
Thanks for the mini financial history lesson. Honestly, you seem like the only financial YT'er out there that is actually trying to help their audience.. actually, Plain Bagel is a good one as well, but you're my favorite regardless.
They never telegraphed the interest rate adjustments until like 96. Before that ya had to guess or be an avid FED watcher. The sheer computing power and modelling capabilities the FED has now are so much different. They know better than ever when and how to move rates.
They may also have more incentives than ever to not do what is best all the time. “Inflation is transitory” all of 2021, to dovish talk right before elections? Strange doncha think
Actually they don't know anything. As one poster already pointed out, "inflation is transitory". And how about Ben "There's no housing bubble to burst" Bernanke?
So far you and ClearValue Tax are coming up with very good content that helps out the community to have an idea of what’s coming. The rest of RUclipsrs are very repetitive. Thanks!
they are the two real ones with minimal clickbait
We are listening to the same people.. I was buying Crypto, but now I've stopped buying so quickly because clear value and this guy have given me the crystal ball... So grateful... Just need more money to invest heavily..
Once again, this is the only financial channel that makes any sense
Aside from these unregulated, junk crypto exchanges going bankrupt... nothing else bad as happened. Have any S&P 500 companies gone bankrupt? The market sells off and panics once huge, publicly traded companies that everyone has heard about start going bankrupt. We aren't there yet.
Really consider making this a bi-weekly or monthly recap of where we are as we move forward. Great information and content.
Excellent video. One of the few YT-ers that seem to get it. No one knows what will happen, but your assumptions are reasonable.
Thanks for pushing through the pain and doing what you do best. We need people like you in a field of Meet Kevins.
I hope you’re doing well and feeling good! Thanks for putting out this content. Looking forward to your next video.
Thank you for a good, quality video. Keep THIS up. I missed this from you.
You explain everything so clearly. Thanks for the detailed video.
You explained it very clearly, good video!
Dude!!! Already 2 mins in you clearly explained what a pivot is. All these news sites talk about it but never explain what it is.
Interesting that makes sense. I am in agreement. I am feeling really bearish. I am biased because I am a first time home buyer and it is just so crazy seeing how much homes have gone up while we have all of these bad things going on in the economy.
dude this is straight fire. amazing macro overview here. I think it’s spot on great job
Such excellent economic history and analysis, thx bro.
Nice analysis, to the point… no fluff no nonsense… I’m a fan
always nice content. thanks buddy
I really enjoyed hearing your thoughts on macroeconomics. I've learned a lot from you. I hope you and your brother recover quickly. Thank you for making these videos.
Solid info. Thanks a bunch✌🏾
Great facts and thinking. My favorite finance channel to compare my thoughts to. Was thinking a lot of the same things.
Would be great to get a follow up video now that we are pretty close to the pivot it seems. Past 2 meetings have held interest rates steady.
you sir are one of the more reasonable market influencers out there for us retail. great video. I agree with everything you state. Good luck to us in our investments ahead. Too good health!
I have been in finance and accounting for 20 years but learning from your videos or revising what I knew. Please keep it up, very excellent presentation, simple and very organized. Normally, I don't comment on youtubers, but you are exceptionally brilliant kid!
Love these educational videos man!! Nice to see you back in action
Great to see the come-back, hope all is well.
Your insight is crucial to us, as now that all ur competition is nothing like it was when AMC was booming...
Yourself and few others are part of a new trading community that has risen from the presummed ashes of the MOASS.
What happened to the AMC GME explosion. I don't know the truth, did Ape's really... lose?
There weren't any tech companies in the 60, 70 or 80's and if there were they were a little portion of SPY. But in the current situation Tech is a large portion of SPY. Probably SPY decreased with the fed pivot in the 70 or 80's because as the inflation goes down, Dividend paying equities tend to do worse, than the growth equities (Tech)?
Good point
I'm glad to see you doing well. Thank you for your time and the energy you put in to make these videos.
Really liked the approach you took analyzing this. There's a lot of nuance that I feel gets lost in the conversation about inflation, fed rates, and unemployment but this video seems solid. Like you said none of us know for sure but I appreciate your take on it.
In the money is On the money this time. Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge!
Thanks again for explaining simple things for simple people
Really interesting stuff here. I think this type of content is my favorite on the channel
Dude. Appreciate it and thanks to you guys for keeping your heads up.
Excellent video!! Love your content brotha! Keep up the awesome work!
glad you are still putting out videos again. hope u and your brother r doing better. wishing you improved health in the new year
The pivot for your health is coming. Rock on, thank you for taking the time and energy to make this!
Really liked this video 👍
I would luv to see you make a video on what precious metals and commodities do in market enviroments discussed here. Keep up the great content.
Glad to see you back making videos more frequently. Hope it’s a sign things are getting better for you and your brother.
Good to hear a fresh perspective on the fed pivot :)
Awesome channel man…glad I found it
Thanks
Hey Adam, I just want to say I love your face. I hope you and Eric are doing well and have more and more good days than bad days
EXCELLENT VIDEO!!! Thank you for all your research! We hope you and your brother recover soon and can enjoy things like you used to.❤🙏 As always we love your videos!
thanks for breaking this down I learned a bit.
This is genuinely the most insightful thing I've seen on macroeconomics
keep it up man. love seeing your vids again
Thank you… I’m glad to see you posting this and not we’re going to the moon when the fed pivots… Powell will pivot as he said when their has been significant PAIN…. that means pivoting bc something has been broken / credit crunch type thing or what have you
Then stocks will continue to see lower lows… but bonds 🤤 TLT is all I gotta say about that
You’re welcome 😉
Excellent presentation. Thank you!
So, if I were to put what you said / think in very, very simple terms.. waiting a bit till mid year / later 2023 maybe a better entry point in the market vs now / early Q1 / Q2.
Excellent video! Your research and presentation! OnTheMoney! Keep up the great work
Great video. Love the education and analysis.
The man, the myth, the legend: inthemoney
This video flew past, and I think I understood everything you said. Outstanding, well done, Sir.
Great educational lecture bruv. Thanks.
Thank you
The pivot doesn’t begin with the Fed cuts rates. The pivot is in 3 phases. Phase 1, the Fed slows the increase if the rate increase(e.g. from .75 to .50%). Phase 2 is when the Fed doesn’t increase or decrease rates. And phase 3 is when the interest cuts start.
Thank you, Adam! Very Interesting! Using the charts really helps to understand the message! Time will tell as someone once said!
Beautiful work! Really good stuff here.
i'm down 76% this year, there isn't really much i can do at this point.... and their talking about a "new bullish market" coming into 2023.... i'm not going to hold my breath. it's going to take me years to see any of my money back. so much for trading and investing in a future.
It may have been that your risk was set higher than that with which u were ultimately comfortable with …. Stay the course and you will recover all and more ….older folks here have seen that happen many times….
thank you for your analysis Adam
I’ve missed this videos so much! Hope you’re doing a bit better, I know you’re fighting like hell and it’s going to take a lot of time, but I’m proud of you. All of your followers are sending you and your brother healing gives 🙏🏻❤️
Thanks for the info 👍 and wishing you good health 🙏
Great insight, good to hear different opinion.
Love the video! Hope you're well, dude!
Great info! Thanks for the content
Another stellar job that sounds about right. I think I'll start my LEAPS around the slow months in 2023 and ride the early/mid 2024 production wave (given capital is cheap) with Jan 2025 expirations.
Read my mind
Whether this plays out or not your thesis is well thought out. Thank you
straight to the point, our microeconomic god! I highly recommend you make more of these and if possible upload more frequently 🎉
Powell is anything but swift! He let inflation rose to all time high before he got the Fed to finally raise rate! Not to mention, Powell announced QT but took months before they actually started selling!
The entire misguided notion that inflation was transitory delayed needed rate rises by at least 3 to 6 months.
Great video! Also I’m so happy that you look like you are recovering. ❤❤
I feel smarter. My Pool of resources have definitely grown. Thanks. 👍
Thanks man. Of course we know the facts but hearing it from you in a form of organized thoughts is priceless
good to have you back, even if not full on, we appreciate you! Hope for a positive outcome for your situation sir!
So glad you are posting again. I hope you and your brother have a full recovery soon.
Soooo great to see your vids again!!!
So glad you're back man. You're looking fit and healthy.
always coming out with chadded videos, keep it up
Good vid, thanks!!
I'm just here to show support for a seemingly legit channel. Appreciate your continuous authenticity.