China's banking system is in free fall right now, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
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- Опубликовано: 10 дек 2023
- Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss China's real estate crisis, why he believes China is currently experiencing a banking system collapse, what it means politically for Chinese President Xi, potential impact on U.S. companies, and more.
Ah yes, neutral unbiased analysis from Kyle Bass😂😂😂😂
It is high time for Kyle Bass to short China, hopefully not repeating previous bad experiences.
you cant short china, the chinese governement can easily make it illegal or not able to short the chinese market, its already illegal for locals to short the chinese market.
@@kimeli~40% of Chinese public companies are listed in HKEX, Chinese ADR’s on Nasdaq have total market cap over $1T. There’s further ~$1T worth of USD denominated Chinese bonds on the market (already trading around 70c on the dollar on avg). But timing is the key, the “national team” as they’re called, is known to strategically enter the market to provide support at critical levels.
Then someone have to take that bet and China don't allow shorting
@@Lassemalten Just ask Kyle Bass how to short China and HK. He had lost millions.
@@parklilys3108 -$2 B and took his hedge fund co.to the cleaner.
Don't worry about China . China's 10-month trade surplus is over $684bn from Jan. - Oct . 2023 .
Let's put more focus looking after the homeless people at home .
I heard they lost over 50 Trillion $$$$$ WOW.
Is China's economy collapsing again? According to previous China experts, China has collapsed three or four times. Other China experts have said if China's economy collapses. The whole world will be affected. Who is right?
Maybe this can clarify things a little? >>Study says decoupling from China wouldn't spell disaster for the German economy | DW News ruclips.net/video/qrbq9gJk-kg/видео.html
China is going to collapse:
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2018. The Guardian: A Chinese recession is inevitable
2019. BBC: China's economic slowdown: How bad is it? - BBC News
2020. France24: China's economy suffers historic slump due to Covid-19
2021. Wall Street Journal: The Slow Meltdown of the Chinese Economy - WSJ
2022. MSN MarketWatch: China’s economy is rotting from the head
2023. Palki Sharma: China’s Debt Trap: How Beijing Became a Victim of Its Own Debt
@@MetaView7these retrospectives on prediction are always fun. Thanks for doing it
Kyle creams his pants at the first whispers of weakness in the Chinese market
It's interesting to see that people you won't trust to run your pension fund believe they know how to run a country of 1,4B people.
You’re right I wouldn’t trust the CCP with a checking account .
This ☝️
I don't believe these guys I have been told that if you go to NYC and then go to Shanghai you will see that the US is definitely worse off.
Well said. Bass is delusional. Look at his AUM.
And it's ALWAYS the same demographic of people... typical
How much is Hayman Capital worth?
Bass has also predicted Greece's economic woes and the devaluation of the Japanese yen. Bass called 2015 one of his fund's worst years. By early 2019, Hayman had $423.6 million in discretionary assets under management, down from $2.3 billion at the end of 2014. Just so we know the guy who apparently is inside knowledge of Chinese banks,
Another Gordon Chang ?
Bass made the right calls, BUT… and that’s a ‘big’ But, his timing has been off. However, what he has talked about for years, is now coming to pass.
@@sandymilne224 In youtube the are numeours chanel predicting the US will have a massive market crash in 2023 or 2024. Even El Erain says the US is in perma-crisis. Yet the SP500 will finish up in 2023. Yet there are numerous people hiding in cash under the mattress, in gold coin etc. Judge Napolitano is selling gold in this channel. There must be over 1000 buy gold channels. And all this uncertainty this is for the US where you live and breath.
So I don't think anybody has a clue about China. They may have a lucky strike once. But not because of any fundamental insights.
He is just a small-time speculator who tries to make his money off other peoples' misery.
@@zix_zix_zix … Like a doctor does…
You have to back up one more step.. The majority of Chinese social spending was paid for by the provinces selling land to real estate developers. As the real estate developers go bankrupt, they are going to stop buying land from the local governments, which means no income to pay for social services. Imagine in the USA if individual states owned 95% of the land and funded all state functions for 30 years by selling some land every year.. and then suddenly nobody was buying land.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next ten years.
Funny how all these non Chinese speaking their expertise on China, what a joke
They learned from Trump, Just don't pay your bills, and walk away from all the small business owner,
I don't think we should be comparing their situation with a similar one in a Western economy. State-owned enterprises generated 40% of China's GDP in 2020. In addition to their own operations, SOEs also invest in private enterprises. All that means that the Chinese state effectively owns or controls, directly or inderectly, almost EVERYTHING in China. That position gives them a lot of options to deal with a problem (that governments in the Western World do not have).
@@theonlycaulfield I think in ten years we will be able to say with certainty that 2019 was the height of modern day China. In 2015, 70% of western investment in Asia was China, now it is down to 40% with companies opting for india, vietnam and the Philippines over china.
I just finished my hols in China and things are normal .
The economy is soft but OK.
The economy in Malaysia is soft but OK as well.
The price of rental of property is lower than pre Covid.
There was no big subsidies thrown at everyone in Covid…
USA is booming because of the subsidies in Covid .
Let see how long the boom will last ……as the national debt is through the roof.
You been to factory towns like Dongguan? My friend has apartment(s) in Shanghai and she lost foreign tenants. No expats in Shanghai paying high expat rents means she had to drop her rent and can only rent to locals (with much lower spending power). On the surface, things are ok but you dive deeper into the banking and shadow banking you will see it's a house of cards.
Adrian
China is like Malaysia …..rental now is LOWER than pre Covid.
Everyone have to tighten the belt.
It is OK ….as long as it is NOT a severe downturn.
Property prices going up feels good …..but the impact on economy may not be good if it is caused by stimulus.
Look at the complaints in Sydney, London etc…
A lot of people are homeless due to the 30% increase in rentals.
Chinese will buy less luxury bags , cars etc.
The resilience in China is astounding.
@@adriansaw8329at least your friend can rent to poorer (?) people, I live in SF and the commercial rental is about 35% vacancy rate…..just imagine the effects on the banks when loans are due.
@@adriansaw8329 One of the reasons why is due to the fact that covid as well as the educational crackdown had a severe impact on China's expat community, where an average of 40% expat teachers left in Shanghai and Beijing numbering over 110k in 2022 alone. The exodus of foreign expats were already expected and intentional. It is now in the process of bottoming out in light of recent events.
If your friend bought them with financial prudence or is liquid rich/paid cash, she should expect to have her yields return to some levels of normality and it shouldn't be an issue of concern to her. If she took out a mortgage or loans for them, then it would be another story.
In Shanghai rental yields are very low, not exceeding 3% p.a even during healthy periods. A 2+% pa yield (excluding property appreciation, maintenance costs and tax) is actually very very low, tbf with all things considered. If one takes a out loan for it, you would pretty much have evened out any net income from rental and can only hope to rely on property appreciation which can be iffy. And all this is supposing you have a 100% rental uptime which can be impractical, so the rental game there in China really isn't the game to play.
Real estate ownership has always been the gold standard as a means of investment to the Chinese. But covid has altered the landscape considerably. In fact, the rich in China are now realizing that real estate offers no strong business case as a short-mid term investment and they are going into logistics, tech and healthcare which tend to offer much better yields in the short-mid term. That will, to some extent, explain why there is now a notable property slump there.
It's heartwarming to see US TV personalities racing each other to let viewers know they're acquaintance of Taiwan's president.
"I served with Taiwan's president. I knew Taiwan's president. Taiwan's president was a friend of mine. Sir, you're no Taiwan's president." -Senator Lloyd Bentsen 🤣
Kyle Bass has been talking about China crashing for over 10 years. But nothing really happens. True, there are some housing market bubbles. But China is transforming into a high value manufacturing nation. The money in the housing market are being directed to the high tech markets like chips, EV cars and large scale ship building. It is actually a blessing in disguise. Once the housing market crisis is over, China is be more focus in investing in moving up the food chain of global supply.
Take EV cars for example, China has passed Japan as the largest car exporter of the world, and many of these cars are EV cars.
And China can now produce 7nm chips AT SCALE. It is moving into the forefront of chip manufacturing, including developing their own chip eco-systems.
My advise is, don't bet against a nation which as the foundation in manufacturing. Their focus in making things, instead of speculating. They will always be on top.
They will always be on top.
笑死我啦。
That’s because the Chinese government keeps bailing out the banks, the Chinese government can’t control everything. Only when it spreads to other sectors in the economy a crash will occur.
China has 60% of all EV cars in the world! And China has 80% world’s high speed rail road. In Ai technology, China’s Ai applications are far more broadly to US and any other country.
@@pacificeye456 1 Tesla > all China EV makers. 100% of China high speed rail cannot run if Japan ban export of special screws to China. AI in China is actually big data disguised as AI to con people like you. China's AI cannot even tell anything on 8964. Ya ya ya, u are right China is always at the top. So, China n people like you please stop complaining US ban chip export to China and US threatened to revoke China special trading partner status. Yayaya China is always at the top. 笑死我啦。
Another Gordon Chang ?
The Shanghai exchange peaked in 2007 at 6300. It is now under 3000. It's declined over 50% in sixteen years. It would seem like a great opportunity to invest but the CCP makes me uneasy and the accounting standards are shaky. It is probably better that most Chinese folks don't invest in the stock market. Traditionally favoring property/real estate and now that is collapsing. Anyways I feel bad for the average Chinese citizen and perhaps someday the CCP will collapse and folks will have liberty and freedom.
that is why enlightened and capable Chinese are fleeing in exodus.
Whats the freedom that they are missing out on? What kind of liberty is relevant these days?
This guy Kyle Bass has my attention. I think he's totally right.
After hearing this guy, McDonald’s be like ‘ok imma open another 1000 stores in China this year.
true, McDonald stores many open 24x7 in China with doors wide open in the night. Lol
V cool. He is always super China bear, aka HATES China
Correction - he's PSYCHOTIC on China, sorta like the US gvt
Yeah, but McDonald’s in China is a joint venture, 80% owned by the local partner in the venture, so capital exposure is very low, especially compared to some business that owns a factory full of expensive machines.
China is one of biggest market. Not everything which these so called experts say is true. Pushing us agenda especially this guy
I would always love to see the interview involving Kyle and Dario at the same time.
Or even a celebrity deathmatch episode.
Dario? You're talking about (Ray) Dalio, and his "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" thesis? Yeah, I think Kyle Bass would strongly disagree with a lot of things. The channel "Money & Macro" already did a good critical review video of Dalio's arguments that I'm sure Bass would agree with.
he is severely negative on china but he is not shorting china - it seems like a conflict of interest and inherent bias - he is leaving money on the table and not putting his money where his mouth is - this raises all kinds of red flags (pardon the pun) #follow the money #clear as crap
Can you talk also about the banking system and economy in the US? i heard that more banks are closing, and some are in deep trouble too. Is it true? Thanks.
I'm not a fan of China. But it's never that bad, like the media portraits
Exactly
It's actually insane how atrocious the situation in China is. Especially in the medium-long term. The media never did the issue justice. Instead all they ever talked about is dedollarization and how China will take over the US and the BRICS surpassing the west and all this gibberish.
It was the university of Shanghai that recently did a study on Chinese demographics. They discovered that they overcounted their population by about 100 million people, all of which under 40 years old and significantly tilted female. The Chinese demography was the worst of any nation in history BEFORE the new data. Now it's just apocalyptic. Worse than the plague of Justinian in medieval Europe actually, since all the people missing in China are 45 and lower due to Mao's one child policy and ridiculous urbanisation. Meaning that when the huge and productive 45-65 year old cohort moves to mass retirement, China goes lights out.
Now couple that with the fact that they are SO weak geostrategically, that there are about 5 countries that can cause China to deindustrialize without outside intervention. What do I mean? Well China is by far the largest importer of food and energy and almost all of those imports go through the straight of Malacca. A naval blockade of the straights by say India or Indonesia, and you have Famine and Industrial collapse.
Modernity exists in China exclusively because the US chooses to enforce globalization and maritime trade. The Chinese navy is utterly incapable of reaching the Philippines let alone Malacca. It is built for an invasion of Taiwan but the ships don't have any more range than that. It is genuinely closer to a coast guard than a deep sea navy that can protect trade routes. That capability is just not even on the horizon. There are no plans to even develop it as far as I know.
As if that wasn't enough you have the Everything bubble in China. The real estate bubble alone is comically absurd. There are 5 times more houses/apartments in China than there are people. Yes it is that much more absurd than the ghost cities you see. The majority of the houses are of horrible construction quality because more emphasis was given on construction speed than safety and longevity. That is what attracted the delusional and inexperienced Chinese investors. It was just that, an investment into a junk asset. Literally physically junk quality concrete and buildings with non-existant demand.
They might as well have burned 4 trillion dollars trying to empty the Pacific Ocean. The best part? This humongous Ponzi scheme is almost exclusively fueled with debt. Chinese construction companies borrowed huge amounts to build apartments and then Chinese citizens borrowed huge amounts to buy these houses. That whole Ponzi is 30% of the Chinese GDP. Isn't that just fabulous?
But wait there's more! Oh yes my child there's always more when it comes to China. The debt crisis goes deeper than real estate. It extends to ALL Chinese infrastructure. Let's just randomly take high speed rail for example. There was a little less than a trillion dollars invested in these trains. The first few lines were in fact very economically viable like the first buildings in Shanghai or Shenzhen. But then like the ghost cities, came the bullet trains to nowhere. Lines that cost billions upon billions with only a few passengers a year. Again all fueled with debt and again DISASTER.
All this non performing debt and Banking vulnerability are of course addressed in the interview above and it started getting reported since the Evergrande incident.
Anyway there about 10 more arguments as to why China will most likely not exist as a country in the next 10-20 years. And some of those arguments are potentially worse than anything I mentioned. We'll have to wait and see of course, but the media has been catching up lately.
US investors will buy low at some point to rip the massive return. China economy is doing fine besides it's real estate sector downfall
oh its worse
The odds of China invading Taiwan prior to 2027 was 30ish% last year. Now with their economy in trouble and high unemployment, the odds of China invading Taiwan have gone up, not down.
If you have investments in China, expect them to be nationalized if a conflict starts. Do some due diligence on what nationalizing your investment means for your investment. There is no low risk investment on offer in China currently. It all has junk status.
I know China pretty well and I can confirm what you just said is totally bs😂
agree with everything said. But possible Taiwan invasion is halted by AI. Chinese can't quite make microchips needed for AI yet and a move on Taiwan will most likely move the industry to US.
US has been sabotaging the semiconductor shield and yet it has grown naturally due to AI and automotive demands
@@mariajiao4855 Oh, got the inside scoop direct from Xi himself? You must be rich and powerful and a fan of RUclips.
Or, much like the Russians, you are part of a farm of underpaid propagandists. Which one is more likely?
@@mariajiao4855what do you mean? Do you think if China invades Taiwan, there won’t be a total embargo like the west did to Russia? Though I don’t know which companies need to be nationalized, since there are no foreign owned companies in China, (except Tesla), that’s true.
@@mariajiao4855 what do you know??? 😮
American media have been predicting the collapse of China an average of once every 3 months for 20 years.
I guess it's that time of year again 😂😂😂
America should be more concerned about its financial system. Don't worry about China, we are doing fine with no interference from you.
LOL...your structural debt makes ours look like child's play
Damn!!! The economy really isn't getting fair for real!
It's crazy man.. This really keeps affecting individuals...
Cost of living keeps getting expensive... People struggle to make income flows... The government can't help everyone.. sad truth
People need to help themselves other than relying firmly on government provisions or opportunities... There are things to invest in or get involved in..
Exactly 💯
Get a high income skill, invest.
There are lots of things to invest in....
Trading, stocks etc.... Create an income stream for yourself...
*but I really do have a question. For someone with less than $10,000 to invest how do you recommend we enter the crypto market? I am thinking of studying some traders and copying their strategies, rather than investing or trading myself and loosing money, what's your take on this approach?*
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
very true, I started investing before the pandemic and that same year I pulled a profit of about $600k with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was seeking guidance to make a from a financial-advisorr, you can be passively involved with the aid of a professional.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
VALERIE JEAN ZWOSTA
That’s my licesed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later!
Thanks, I merely looked her up on Google and was highly impressed by her credentials; I got in touch with her because I need all the help I can get. I just set up phone call.
Canada imported the Chinese economic model of pumping real estate. Both economies need a massive cleanse.
I keep hearing how bad things are in China. What about our $33 trillion debt?
i was just in china a week ago. trust me - everything is normal there. nobody is in crisis
Sure, none of those large building companies are struggling to complete homes, Apple isn't actively moving production out of China, those new Foxcon factories in India are fake. Sssuuurrre.....
Of course. You didn’t think they really gonna tell everyone did you? 😂. Trust me, china didn’t even tell about covid going around at first, what makes you think different?
I heard that their China internet is down n can't get back on line WOW.
Bass is awesome
Banks crash because of runs on their deposits, which the CCP will not allow. Most Chinese debt is internally owned so can be written of with a sweep of a bureaucrats pen. Of course the currency will be valueless, but presumably the CCP can just create a new one.
The flags behind him..says a lot about him. A big A
Kyle Bass said similar things about HK when he was shorting HK dollar. Ask Bass how much money he lost on that trade - lol. That shows how much he understands "the architecture of the system" in his own words. Obviously Bass doesn't know much about Asia.
US Real Estate markets should be upended and PE and Wall Street banks should be removed from real estate ownership after the frquds that they perptrated in 2006-2023.
I agree that the Chinese real estate market is the best in the world. Because of this, and the strength of the other sectors in the Chinese economy, I think it would be wise to place my assets in a Chinese bank. Which Chinese bank do you think is the best?
On June 14, 2020, the Wall Street Journal reported that Bass is facing regulatory scrutiny from SEC investigators for potential market manipulation-an issue that appears to stem from a controversial trade, executed in late-2015, in which Bass' fund built a short position against the stock price of a publicly traded REIT known as UDF, then accused the REIT of being a Ponzi scheme.[17] The REIT executives were convicted and sentenced to a combined 20 years in federal prison.[18]
'One common pattern is that wealthy individuals often prioritize financial discipline, making wise spending choices..!' Oh please - wealthy individuals are told when to dip into and out of the markets well before us 'little people' get to know so they look like geniuses and us little people pay their losses at the end of the day,
Like insider trading?
90% default on 13 trillion, wow!
90% default?! Isn’t that like Pink Panther saying “how fatal?”
@@tvm73827 What a chunk of change!
Let freedom ring!
Who can clearly explain China economy should win Nobel prize. Talking Chinese banking system, don’t forget big 5 are state owned. If explain China business from B/S and P&L standard point, might miss something. And how many Americans learn Chinese language vs.how many Chinese learning English might give us better answers.
Very Good Point !
look at Kyle's old videos, last 10 years, when was he ever bull on China... He's never said he was wrong. just saying it's going to happen eventually.
I was just in China and was scared of the scale of the empty apartments that exists. They have more housing than people. Birthrates are declining and the college graduates can't find jobs that they want.
I was just in America and scared off the scale of the empty malls that exists. They have more stores than people. Migrants flooding the country and college graduates with useless degrees.
Thats great. Unlike most developed countries where there is a housing crisis.
@@ProdigalExplorer That is worse than having a housing crisis. With housing crisis the people suffer and not the govt. With more houses than people, both the people and the govt suffers. There is a reason why developed nations purposefully keep the number of housing built under control
That makes no sense. If there are abundance of apartments, wouldn't that mean it would be cheap to rent. Also, if the population is declining, wouldn't there be more job openings? You aren't making any sense.
too much smearing that they contradict each other@@jukio02
The Dallas Federal Reserve in 2013, estimated the total US cost of the GFC could range from several trillion dollars to over ten trillion, considering both the direct losses and the broader economic impacts over time. I think the 0.8 trillion Kyle is referring to was probably only crystallised stock market losses. Anyway, it is true that China cannot lose trillions of dollars and bounce back because China’s problems are deep structural ones.
Jewish men's grudge against the Asiatic Mongols is fascination in itself.
Kyle should stop focusing on what Xi says and focus more on what Xi does - would be my advice
@@angelobalbi Kyle knows what he is talking about he does the work - I hope he is wrong when he speaks I listen.
He is correct
Mainland China needs chips being shipped from Taiwan to them, so, it’s more risky for Xi to invade, especially since Taiwan Semi is building facilities in the US. BTW, both CEOs of AMD and NVDA are related and from Taiwan.
They also built a huge factory in Latvia.
From what I can understand about the Chinese economy, there really are not sufficient words in the English language to fully describe quite how utterly and terminally f...ed the entire Chinese system is never mind just its banking system. Nothing quite so insane has ever been attempted before and then forced to boom, boom, and boom even more for so long, so artificially and unsustainably. Likely not been tried before because no country has ever been in the same situation as China was at the same time being run by an essentially communist system of government.
As a result, the CCP has resided over something that combines the worst aspects of crony capitalism with an authoritarian government that does not care in the slightest about its own people but sees them as nothing more than sacrificial scum. It is one thing to copy the West, but not such a great thing to copy in a mad rush, all of the worst bits and none of the better bits that sort of evolved naturally. What makes China's story even more tragic is that many Western politicians and economists have been using China as an example of how to do it, not as an example of exactly how not to do it. Even the likes of Boris Johnson were far more impressed than anyone in their right thinking mind should have been.
2:30China already have over 40% unemployment amoung youth. It was 40% in May according to a Beijing professor(his report was later removed of course by Chinas goverment). China no longer report unemployment amoung youth because of it.
In my family, we have 5 youths and they are all unemployed (100%). Why? all of them still in college LOL
@@lv9657 If they are in college they don't count as unemployeed in any country. So I don't understand what your pointing at
You only have to work one hour a week to be considered employed in China. You know it’s not good when they stop reporting unemployment data.
@@Lassemaltenyouth unemployment is a key ingredient for a social uprising. -USA propaganda minister 🎉
@@chunchun-maru yeah but youth in China seem to rather just leave instead, lots of them already moved to Thailand
CNBC stop letting Sorkin interview heavyweights... keep him on the lighter topics
Man this guy is SO annoying... Its the same stuff with him every month...
No country mis-allocates capital like China.
🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂I am coming back to this interview a year from now to laugh at you including the interviewer and the guest about how short sighted exercise of wishful thinking this was.
nobody wishes that China will attack Taiwan, what are you on about?
I’ll be here waiting…
Do you have faith in the Chinese banking sector?
China is toast! If you think otherwise you’re uninformed or delusional. China is the fastest aging country in history with the mother of all real estate bubbles.
@@theonlycaulfield I have more trust in that Putin will pull out of Ukraine than in the Chinese Banking system.
Why don't they invite Peter Zeihan, Gordon Guthrie Chang and Kyle Bass and see who can bash China best ?
My intuition is that the "people in charge" are moving away from economies they cant control because they are already controlled (by dictators other then them).
Wish we had all those extra homes build here in the US. Wouldn’t have all this massive homelessness.
Yeah, but a part of what he is missing is that the majority of these homes are not finished, they are shell buildings.... and the worst part is, most of these unfinished apartments are already mortgaged by individuals. There are millions of Chinese people who are paying a mortgage on an apartment they can't live in, and rent on an apartment they are living in. This has the added effect of greatly reducing consumer spending, since such a huge portion of a persons income is going to the rent and mortgage, they have less to spend on other stuff.
A large part of our homelessness are the black rocks buying absolutely everything up. Also fen*N.L. played a big role
dude, most of the "homeless" are drug addicted alcoholic mentally ill dudes younger than me that could work but would rather scream at people on the street i live.
building a million homes wouldnt solve their problem NOR SHOULD IT because they are their own problem
If you took the other side of Kyle Bass' trades since 2015, you have done verrrrry well.
So the Chinese buy these condos and hold them to retire in. Be wary of these guys. They really don’t know what the investor in China long term goals are.
Love the two flags he has on his chairs.
Take emotion out of investing
Moving production from China to countries with inferior manufacturing is why the worlds inflation is as bad as it is today. Indian made phones are severely inferior in quality.
Fascinating that CNBC is just now publishing this story! It has been going on for 2 years! Hilarious!! Old story…
omg, i am in the great bay in china , there are peaceful , step by step growing up. this year GDP increase 5%, next year 2024 5% as well.
Fake, I came back from it. Impossible 5%, what about minus 5%, that would be rational.
@@WaterFallingDown evidence？ there are no homeless here
I tend to trust Bass on China after watching a long talk by him on China that clearly showed he does his research on all aspects of their economic, military, and social situations.
trust kyle bass on china is like trusting a viper to watch over your baby
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha
How naive, kid !
Didn’t you know his last result for betting on China? 😂
Should not listen to his talk. Watch what he does. People like Bass does not usually do what they say.
How do you trust a person to know a country when he doesn’t speak the language and probably hasn’t been there in decades. CNBC again, using unqualified experts to BIAS the coverage on China. Like any country with cycles, China is under pressure but it has masterfully managed the economy growth for last 40 years and lifted 800mln of its people out of illiteracy and poverty. Don’t make it sound like there was no tangible structural progress in the country.
Sounds like a good time to invest in China.
Invest in what? Their infrastructure is way over built. The stock market has been hovering around 3000 for over ten years due to corruption and insider trading. The government has absolute power and can seize your asset for any fabricated reason.
yeah, if you hate money and want to live a more frugal life lol
China's banking funding got stucked in Physical Assets. But the buyers are in Foreign Soil. What to do then better demortgagize the loans into simpler loan interests for clearance of all stucked Assets. But at the same time check for the quality of the Assets.
He doesn't tell you that the yuan is only worth 4 cents now...and falling fast.
The US fighting forever war and high debt too😂😂😂
chinas money is connected to city of london......
@@user-st9ln7cn5pcan you elaborate?
The choice of drapery on the sofa hasn't gone unnoticed. So, then if there are subtle symbolism of bias, why should the listener take the interview content as anything but biased as well?
The people will revolt soon...😮
5:30 we haven't been shorting China ... oh but we are honest about our thoughts ....
we talk, but we loss a massive amount of investment capital ... let's NOT mention that (Andrew the" intrepid" reporter ... dont mention it either).
Are you saying is investments were in china and he’s lost plenty!?
Kyle Bass bet against the Hong Kong dollar and lost billions
@@zhangcoleman4004any links, I am curious about this guy.
@@faizanhaque2070 bass lost his balls and got so scared since 2016.
Your guest is a genius btw
Great Intwrview, Ty..
But why are the multinational companies moving out of China?
Music is going to stop soon, leave Chinese market ASAP !!
Nothing compared to the social credit score bankruptcy of CNBC right now
It has been said 30 years ago....still they aren't collapsed yet. Your prediction is out of pace.
I just don’t see this narrative. In fact I see a vibrant busy economy and I have lived here for 14 years. It has never been busier.
sure wumao
knowing the answers before the questions.
He is their China basher in residence, he is apparently getting them rating.
China. There is no such thing higher paid salaries. The entire career in china's salaries is equal as everyone else's similar to Cuba. The entire high salaries have been wipe out in china. Baseball, fashion, TV, doctors, pilot, etc all wages are the same. Government controls the economy by equal distrubtation. communism is not really rich; but classless soicety. All the salaries are same as peoples of china. doctors with degree have same salaries as taxi drivers, fast food, etc. communism is sort of like Soviet Union.
What does that mean for Tesla?
Great interview!
Only 100 million units? Peter Zeihan is saying they have more like a BILLION.
I have been China twice this year, it’s totally different view from 4 years ago. According to my Chinese friend’s complaint and my experiences, that’s a big recession. The digits is fake, absolutely minus growth.
My Chinese friend is doing great and said that the digits are real - so the growth continues!!!
Bass correctly identifies all the risks pointing to Taiwan's current risk. I do see one big difference between sanctions on russia compared to sanctions on China. Russia was on a very solid financial footing when it invaded Ukraine, and the sanctions were applied. It had vast sums of cash and gold and above all its oil and gas reserves for its relatively small population compared to China. China is approaching the brink of economic collapse prior to any invasion. China has no oil or gas reserves. And worse China's economy is completely dependent on the world buying its stuff and to a lessor degree foreign investment. As a result there is perhaps no other country in the world more vulnerable to sanctions than China. russia was perhaps the most insulated to international sanctions, and now with its massive cash reserves nearly depleted, its oil and gas industry at risk do to Shell, BP and Exxon leaving two years ago, things are not looking good for russia. Finally, putin is a warmonger and two-bit thug with seemingly little capability to think and act on a timescale beyond a year. China is cut from a very different cloth.
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Little kid doing his research and thinking from afar.
Agree with everything Bass said. But its worse than we think. So many conflicts await us in 2024. Gold or grain probably good investments right now.
Gold will be confiscated, grain too.
Anyone else hate the new graphics package?
I thought Chinese economy has been collapsed several times already according to Mr. Gordon
I have the same thought with the guest 6 months ago.
What year is it? Chinese banks were in free fall years ago when people were taking all their money out and the banks didnt have the funds for it
"When 90% of the market in default..." He needs to back up with data, otherwise, it's just rubbish talk.
Don't you understand American purchase makes China rich without American consumers China will return to the same situation
So, should we invest internationally or only 100% VTI lol
This is a bit hysterical- is Mr bass talking his shirt book? Yes t he numbers are impressive. But there is no indication of an overall debt crisis. Absent the vast majority of regional governments gogin under ts same time, beikjing b has the capital and policy space to push through an impressive residential real estate collapse.
All those vacant condos in China could house a lot of Gaza refugees.
Hmmm interesting all that vacant land in usa can house israel
He meant the US banking is in free fall right? Talk about these “experts” giving unbiased reality!
Never never never do business in china
We will . Who are u to stop us ?
How is the HKD short trade going?
Gordon Chang has been saying that every year for nearly 30 years and sold a lot of books that talk about the same thing. Peter Zeihan is another clown who's been making these "predictions" for years. Now those two are literal paid American Propaganda mouthpieces, but Kyle Bass? He's just a larper.
There is no way China will invade Taiwan. I'm not a big fan of China but things are not bad there. The economy is actually still growing. It's slow, though. But not falling apart.
only western media reports that. nobody here in TW actually is scared nor worried.
@@raphaeljansa7986我台人。I am Taiwanese, the invasion is possible but not the best choice. In china’s tradition, they warned and scared more than actually do it. They prefer to split the nation from inside. They need a weak point to break in.
Unless you get rid of ROC, if not the taiwan island is still called China.
Breaking from inside? That's US job I believe, just count how many coups happened with US finger prints all over it since WW2.
Btw, if the reunification is by force, it still ain't called invading, you can't invade a property that's yours, it's called liberation.
And lastly, mainlanders don't give a F about taiwanese people, you wanna be japs or American or even martian is up to you, but that tiny island is China property. The red lines are clear and written in PRC constitution law, personally I wish the ROC leader to cross it, but in bigger picture I still hope for peaceful reunification. The choice is yours..
@@WaterFallingDown
@WaterFallingDown Yes you can follow the America
You can Trust the America you can go to heaven with the Ukraine people
What is Kyle’s track record has been on China in the past decade? Is it a good idea to keep having this guy on?
Why are us big shots repeatedly going to China to beg?
Always good to see Andrew chat with adults
😆😆😆😆
😂
Evidently your guest is at odds with the IMF that forecasts China,s growth in 2023 to be 5.4%. As well, people like Yellen, Cook, Musk and at least another dozen business and political leaders have visited China in recent weeks to drum up business. Your guest spoke with Taiwanese political leaders about China's economy. He might as well be asking zelinsky about Russia's. 😂😂😂