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FPL Optimized
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Добавлен 22 июл 2023
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | Guest Episode with Alon of @FMLFPL | Episode 109
During the international break, Bas and Sertalp host Alon of FMLFPL podcast and learn about his game style, details about their podcast, and his views about analytics.
Просмотров: 1 541
Видео
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | GW11: Who to Captain? | Episode 108
Просмотров 1,7 тыс.19 часов назад
Bas and Sertalp talk about GW11 and beyond from an analytical perspective. With captaincy calls being so close, they have a quick chat about how to proceed. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:11 GW10 Review 07:11 Fixture Ticker 15:45 Transfer Tuesday (Haaland Replacements) 24:08 Optimal WC11 Team 27:35 Captaincy 35:32 Mini League Updates 37:14 Closing
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | Episode 107. GW10: King Salah and How to Get Him In?
Просмотров 1,8 тыс.14 дней назад
Bas is traveling to Liverpool's game this weekend and considering how to get to Salah, while Sertalp has already done the move, hoping for a great GW for a change. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:55 GW Review 05:48 Fixture Ticker 13:25 Watchlist (Top Performers) 21:10 Optimal WC Team 24:11 Captaincy 28:40 Mini League Updates 30:23 Closing
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | Episode 106 | GW9: Can Haaland Still Do It?
Просмотров 1,4 тыс.21 день назад
Bas and Sertalp is recovering from yet another red arrow, while getting ready for GW9 where Haaland is projected to score lots of points. Timestamps 00:00 Intro and Sakagate 03:30 GW Review 06:00 Fixture Ticker 11:50 Optimal WC Team (Ensemble) 18:23 Captaincy and Triple Captaincy 27:29 Analytics Meetup 28:26 Mini-League Update and Closing
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | GW8 Optimal WC Team | Episode 105
Просмотров 2,1 тыс.28 дней назад
Bas and Sertalp is back from the International Break, and Sertalp is using his wildcard this GW! Timestamps 00:00 Intro and on IB 02:45 GW7 Review 05:15 Fixture Ticker 10:25 No Transfer Optimal WC8 14:14 With Transfer - Optimal WC8 17:17 Sensitivity Analysis for WC8 23:24 Captaincy 27:29 Mini-league 29:42 Analytics Meetup
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | GW7 Optimal Team | Episode 104
Просмотров 1,9 тыс.Месяц назад
Vote for FPL Optimized website and podcast in Football Content Awards (Fantasy Sports / Organization): footballcontentawards.com/voting After a terrible GW, Bas and Sertalp is back to review their GWs and share their views on future GWs and Wildcard chip timing. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:34 GW6 Review 03:33 Analytics Struggles 09:05 FCA Nomination & London Meetup 13:19 Optimal WC7 Team 19:38 P...
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | GW6 WC Teams | Episode 103
Просмотров 3,3 тыс.Месяц назад
Bas and Sertalp talk about various Wildcard teams for GW6. Vote for us: footballcontentawards.com/voting/ under "Best In Fantasy Football / Organisation" Live GW Tracker: fploptimized.com/live_gw.html Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:46 Football Content Awards Nomination 03:10 GW5 Review 12:24 WC6 Teams 1 - No Transfers 20:22 WC6 Teams 2 - Transfers 26:25 WC6 Teams 3 - Salah Haaland Forced 29:17 WC6 ...
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | GW5 Options | Episode 102
Просмотров 1,9 тыс.Месяц назад
Sertalp is back and with Bas, they cover the potential options for GW5 and beyond using projection models and eye-test. Timestamps
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | Episode 101 | GW4 Optimal Teams
Просмотров 1,7 тыс.2 месяца назад
Sertalp is away so Jonny joins Bas to talk through some GW4 optimal teams. Sign up for the newsletter for Sertalp's new project: fploptimized.com/signup Join the FPL Optimized minileague: fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/auto-join/9gxndk Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:09 Jonny GW3 recap 05:58 Bas GW3 recap 07:54 GW4 base wildcard 12:39 GW4 wildcard with 3FTs 19:32 GW4 wildcard with Haaland 24:21 G...
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | Episode 100. Q/A Session 🥳
Просмотров 1,8 тыс.2 месяца назад
In this special episode, Bas and Sertalp answer questions they received and celebrate reaching to #100. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:41 Holidays 03:43 Favorite Moments 07:00 Data/Grass Approach 10:41 Impact of UCL 15:16 Impact of FT on WC Timing 20:17 WC Threshold/Valuation 24:16 Ideal WC GW 28:41 Key Tip for 10K 34:10 Closing
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast | GW3: WC, Transfer, or Hold? | Episode 99
Просмотров 2,6 тыс.2 месяца назад
Bas and Sertalp talk about possible ways to approach GW3, and discuss the optimal wildcard teams.
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast: GW2 Transfer Options | Episode 98
Просмотров 1,9 тыс.2 месяца назад
After a great start to the season, Bas and Sertalp review best players by data and eye-test for GW2 and beyond. Timestamps 00:00 Intro 00:26 GW1 Review 07:08 Transfer Options (Data) 14:45 Transfer Options (Eye Test) 19:00 Captaincy 23:30 Mini League Updates and Closing
GW1 Final Team - FPL Optimized Podcast - Episode 97
Просмотров 4,2 тыс.2 месяца назад
Bas and Sertalp is back for a quick update on optimal teams before GW1 deadline. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:34 Optimal Teams without Transfers 04:10 Optimal Teams with Transfers 07:47 Discussion About Differing From Optimal Teams 12:43 Bas' Draft 18:34 Closing
GW1 Optimal Teams - FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast - Episode 96
Просмотров 3,6 тыс.3 месяца назад
Bas and Sertalp have a quick look over several optimal GW1 teams from different aspects. Join our FPL Mini League: 9gxndk Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:13 Optimal Team No Transfers 06:17 Optimal Team with Transfers 12:11 Salah Only Team 17:35 Salah & Haaland Team 20:49 Optimal Team with WC4 25:34 Optimal Team with WC6 28:23 Closing
FPL Optimized Analytics Podcast - Episode 95 - We're Back
Просмотров 3,9 тыс.3 месяца назад
Bas and Sertalp is back for 2024-2025 season! We have talked about new changes, what they mean for analytical play, what are current ideal teams, and how does the captaincy choice look. Join us for our very first episode of the season! Link to our FPL Analytics Community Discord discord.gg/HRjcXrTM54 Timestamps 00:00 Intro 02:22 Background for New Viewers 09:37 Analytical Impacts of Changes in ...
How to win FPL: Q/A with FPL 23/24 Winner Jonas Sand Låbakk | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 94
Просмотров 2,6 тыс.5 месяцев назад
How to win FPL: Q/A with FPL 23/24 Winner Jonas Sand Låbakk | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 94
FPL GW38: Final GW of the Season | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 93
Просмотров 8265 месяцев назад
FPL GW38: Final GW of the Season | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 93
FPL: Double Gameweek 37: Bench Boost | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 92
Просмотров 1,1 тыс.6 месяцев назад
FPL: Double Gameweek 37: Bench Boost | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 92
FPL GW36 | Final 3 Gameweeks | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 91
Просмотров 7036 месяцев назад
FPL GW36 | Final 3 Gameweeks | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 91
FPL Optimal WC35 Teams | FPL Optimized Episode 90
Просмотров 1,4 тыс.6 месяцев назад
FPL Optimal WC35 Teams | FPL Optimized Episode 90
FPL: FH34 Considerations | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 89
Просмотров 1,1 тыс.6 месяцев назад
FPL: FH34 Considerations | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 89
How to Measure, Apply, and Use Risk in FPL | Analytics | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 88
Просмотров 1,3 тыс.7 месяцев назад
How to Measure, Apply, and Use Risk in FPL | Analytics | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 88
FPL: Preparing for GW32 | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 87 | Analytics & Optimal Wildcard Teams
Просмотров 1 тыс.7 месяцев назад
FPL: Preparing for GW32 | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 87 | Analytics & Optimal Wildcard Teams
GW30 | Fantasy Premier League | Wildcard 30 Options | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 86
Просмотров 1,3 тыс.7 месяцев назад
GW30 | Fantasy Premier League | Wildcard 30 Options | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 86
Predictive Analytics for Fantasy Football Games | FPL Optimized Podcast | Jack Squared | Episode 85
Просмотров 8417 месяцев назад
Predictive Analytics for Fantasy Football Games | FPL Optimized Podcast | Jack Squared | Episode 85
FPL GW29: Blank GW Options | FPL Optimized | Episode 84 | Analytics, Optimization, Data
Просмотров 1,2 тыс.8 месяцев назад
FPL GW29: Blank GW Options | FPL Optimized | Episode 84 | Analytics, Optimization, Data
FPL DGW28 and BGW29 | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 83
Просмотров 1,4 тыс.8 месяцев назад
FPL DGW28 and BGW29 | FPL Optimized Podcast | Episode 83
FPL Optimal Chip Plans | FPL Optimized Podcast | GW27 | Episode 82
Просмотров 1,3 тыс.8 месяцев назад
FPL Optimal Chip Plans | FPL Optimized Podcast | GW27 | Episode 82
FPL GW26 | Optimal Team for BGW26 and Beyond | FPL Optimized - Analytics Podcast
Просмотров 1,4 тыс.8 месяцев назад
FPL GW26 | Optimal Team for BGW26 and Beyond | FPL Optimized - Analytics Podcast
Bonus Episode: Optimizing Chips with JC and Alastair | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 80
Просмотров 2,7 тыс.8 месяцев назад
Bonus Episode: Optimizing Chips with JC and Alastair | FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 80
always good to hear your vids :)
This was a really good watch! Cheers
Excellent discussion guys. I can get very close to review projections using raw data. I can confirm xMins is exactly what it says on the tin, if it's 45 it means a player is expected to play 45 minutes in that game. The chance of a player starting is a separate variable which is not included in the model. Ideally, one needs to run simulations using chance of starting/being subbed on instead.
This is awesome... Bas and Sertalp, some banter will surely take this podcast to the next level... I listen to two FPL podcasts mainly... and the only reason I listen to the other podcast is cuz of the banter and humor
A Haaland hattrick isn't going to make most engaged managers who've sold take a -8 to get him back. They haven't sold him on a whim, and they won't buy him back on a whim. It's not like people are expecting him to not score forever, and to not get the occasional mega-haul. That'll change when Haaland starts averaging 2 a game again and at the same time, the other popular captain picks, and other popular forwards aren't delivering for 2-3 weeks. And most will have kept him 2 moves away all through to be ready for that scenario. But a Haaland haul alone doesn't mean every non-owner's immediately in for a massive red arrow - it does mean it'll be harder to get a green or it'll be smaller, but with the teams not owning Haaland enables, other things need to go wrong as well for it to really be a killer.
@Sertalpbilal you never need to feel imposter syndrome, you and Bas are front and centre of the FPL stats and modelling world as far as the FPL community is concerned. The converse, are those CCs who just turn up and repeat what you can get from half a dozen other pods.
Amazing show 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Thanks!
Hmm, if multiple low xG vs few high xG is essentially the same but with focus on the tail (i.e. multiple scored vs at least one scored), doesn't have implications on clean sheets of the opposition? i.e. losing the first goal is more consequential in fpl than losing further goals.
BRO HOW IS SERTALP LESS THAN 200K AWAY FROM BAS
Bas messed up... but will jump back. 😉
@@basbelfi gotta prove these analytics wrong brother 😂
Think you're in the wrong place, lad @@Stef_FPL
@@Stef_FPL I'm trying! 😂
@@basbelfi WC will cooook Sertalp
The crossover that we never knew we needed 😍
❤
Does ur captaincy mateix take into account the fact that city has KDB and doku back? That should add to the team's XG
Good point. The data should usually consider it indeed. But as always, these are cases where you can't be sure of the minutes they will get and people / models will have different opinions about it...
in mikkel we trust. Bruno captain!
so helpful
Thanks!
@@basbelfi What are the best WC windows left you reckon
@@Juanico259 We could look at it in the next pod. From my perspective GW12 is a good one, as we'll have a longer international break, so it gives you more time to set up your team, and potentially benefit from some price changes... plus there are a few teams with fixture swings.
@@basbelfi yeah thanks. Im thinking 12 or 14
@@Juanico259If you don't have many arsenal or villa players, best time to WC will definitely be gw12
Good info as always. Isak at around 10% ownership is a steal.
Yes, could be. Maybe some injury concerns and Wilson could be back at some point, but indeed, Isak is one to consider.
@@basbelfi Wilson is almost always 'close to a return'
@@nathansmith8898 True... 😂
A lot of that's dead too. His GW10 ownership was only around 2-3.5% from the top to 1 million OR as per Live FPL.
All hail the fixture ticker! 🙇♂️ Thanks for bringing it back!
good as always guys. The Salah conundrum is making me think..
Thanks and indeed, it's a difficult one
I play field hockey, is a great sport!
When I was growing up it's was very much football OR hockey, so I was biased, but since my daughter started playing I really learnt to appreciate (and enjoy) the sport.
As hockey manager do you use analytics 😂
Not yet, but I might put Sertalp on the case... haha.
⚽
Agreed with the other comment, it would be cool to see your teams and potential transfer ideas
Great pod guys 👍
The points are still really tight, I'm on 575, only 5 ahead of Bas and I'm in 257k. I had one really poor week (GW6) when I was 18 below the average which knocked me from top 40k to 200k.
Would be good to hear about your teams and upcoming moves on the pod
Enjoy the Liverpool game and the incoming Salah points 😉
Thanks and I will in any case, LOL.
🙋♂️
If you want to get rid of your City shirt, please let me knowXD
Eze is the ultimate trap! REminds me of Eze!
Still can't digest the fact that Eze keeps popping in best teams
Agreed.
Underlying numbers suggest he is due a return but what it fails to account for is the shots are low quality. Outside the box and on target which the keeper saves easily.
Plus Palace as a team are just struggling... They only scored 1 goal in their last three games... But still, we know that Eze is a good player. Competition for the midfield spots in our teams is fierce though.
Cheers guys. What position do you play, Bas?
Usually in a nr6/8 role, so center of midfield. I used to be more of a number 10, but as I got older I moved a line back... 😅
@@basbelfi A Joelinton positional move then, Bas!
mini league code is wrong
I don't think it is... I just checked again: 9gxndk
Great video as always
Thanks!
maybe add amazing graphs from twitter to your pod guys 😋 love this pod, my fav podcast ❤
Good idea! We could add a 'chart of the week' each time - thanks for the comment!
❤❤❤
17:18: That midfielder list looks just (horribly) wrong.
Why do you think so? I guess you would argue the Son and Bruno picks could be debated, vs a Saka, Salah, Palmer, etc? I think it's about making it all fit, with having Haaland in the team as well, plus the Spurs fixtures do look good. But I agree, it doesn't feel right to have no Arsenal.
@@basbelfi Arsenal doesn't have good fixtures 💅 -Sertalp
17:18: Regarding Flekken, this is only when paired with another playing keeper right?
Imo Davis is overrated as he is totally dependent on getting attacking returns which won´t be that many. Bringing in Kelleher might be ok in the short term, but it booking a future transfer. Flekken is no clean sheet machine, but of course will cover Kelleher when Becker returns. He wasn´t that great last season. Fernandes and Eze? Come on! Calvert-Lewin is surely not the best alternative in this price bracket. The same could be said about Andersen and Joao Pedro (do even know when he will be back from injury?) on the bench.
5:14: Yes! This fixture ticker is so much better than those which don´t show both the defensive and offensive dimension. Kudos! Would prefer another colors scheme though, typically green, yellow and red for the difficulty rating.
Good point, and thanks for the comment! For some reason Sertalp likes purple... 😆
Hahah, I like purple sure Bas, but the reason for these colors to make it colorblind friendly. Red/green colors are difficult to get it right. Thanks Tony. -Sertalp
44K 😮✊
Something different and interesting!!❤️
We try to be different! 👍
DCL is Maupay. Who will want Maupay in their team
hey guys - big fan of the pod. What do you think is the optimal mix of review projectsion/market odds? is it 80/20 like farhan used? I imagine the market odds dont go out past a couple of GW at a time.
Thanks for the comment and question! I'll leave this one to Sertalp. 🙂
It is a bit tricky to find the ideal mix. We can do it in hindsight, but for future ones it depends how good Review is compared to the market odds now. I know people use 80/20 or usually only Review. You are right, Market Odds is sometimes implied, involving some derivations, which may be wrong. My suggestion would be trying with Review only, and also checking with Market-only to see if there is anything obviously different. Maybe we can do some visualization on this too, now I'm thinking. If not sure, I would try 80/20 or 50/50. -Sertalp
@@FPLOptimized Thank you, that makes sense. In general I tend to think that those who have put money on the line (assuming the market is liquid) will have the best approximation of the likelihood of an event haha. I like the idea of going 100/0 Review and 0/100 Odds to see what are the big changes, this will likely tell you about the model itself.
I agree about the market being more accurate. Sometimes you can even get the info about how much money can be bet in a particular line, which tells a lot about the confidence in the market. The only difficulty is translating 1 or 2 GWs of data into season (or at least a few GWs) projections. But yeah, I also think market-based models are good for sense check! Maybe we can cover them a bit more going forward. -Sertalp
Great episode again guys! Liking the new Captaincy graphic
Thanks!
Salah also looks like a good captaincy shout
Hi ❤
This is the best podcast. Two different styles complement each other. Plus you allow each other to speak politely, you don't speak over each other like other pods.
Thanks, we appreciate your comment!
if you don't get me wrong, just a feedback, last year presented data was richer and visualisation was way better. you are the only channel I open up immediately when I see it on twitter but I wanted to see mikkel tokvam(I don't know if he is still active or not), Fpl review WC, captaincy options. anyway, good work, keep it up guys.
I am a bit upset that we did not get this type of feedback earlier; the lack of interest was part of my reason to drop them. But we are working to bring some of them back in an improved format, hopefully as mentioned. Thanks for the feedback. -Sertalp
@@FPLOptimizeddon’t underestimate the amount of us viewers that are total nerds
Great feedback, we're working on it!
I strongly disagree about the heads and tails analogy. Of course it´s unlucky that a player gets a red card (unless a player is know for getting many cards) or that a player gets injured (unless he is know to be very injury prone), but when a player has performed poorly for 6 games in a row and even was poor last season and plays for a poor team with clear and obvious struggles then it´s not bad luck or a question of heads and tails. Nkunku didn´t prove anything last season only to be injury prone. Eze has never proven to be anything else than a mediocre FPL asset playing for a mediocre/poor team which has never scored many goals. Fernandes is playing for a team which has struggles for many seasons and has been a little been better than mediocre the 3 last seasons. Yes, of course it can change again at some point, but it´s about high risk and low reward, not bad luck.
I understand your point, we can agree to disagree on why it happened. -Sertalp
This argument feels a little post-hoc. All the same things you’ve said about Eze could have been said about Mbeumo before the 23/24 season, and the things you said about Fernandes would have applied to Odegaard before 22/23.
@@Dere2727 Post-hoc? I’ve been going on about this all season and last season.
Time to give up on data and trust your gut feeling!
I think we'll think / talk differently about it in a few weeks from now...
@@basbelfi Maybe, maybe not. For some players it is possible to improve, for others it´s not about just the player but the whole team.
Hahah, maybe :) -Sertalp
5.4m overall rank, impressive
He'll jump back, I'm sure. Two top 5k finishes in the last 3 seasons... I wish I could say that. 😅
I'm also impressed myself to be honest. Let's see if there is a bottom to this fall. -Sertalp
@FPLOptimized The only rank that matters is final gw38 rank ofc, etc etc. Good Luck!
Maybe to make mini-league chat at end more interesting, each month look at top monthly managers for past month and the reason for their success?
Good idea, I like it!