Excellent discussion guys. I can get very close to review projections using raw data. I can confirm xMins is exactly what it says on the tin, if it's 45 it means a player is expected to play 45 minutes in that game. The chance of a player starting is a separate variable which is not included in the model. Ideally, one needs to run simulations using chance of starting/being subbed on instead.
@Sertalpbilal you never need to feel imposter syndrome, you and Bas are front and centre of the FPL stats and modelling world as far as the FPL community is concerned. The converse, are those CCs who just turn up and repeat what you can get from half a dozen other pods.
This is awesome... Bas and Sertalp, some banter will surely take this podcast to the next level... I listen to two FPL podcasts mainly... and the only reason I listen to the other podcast is cuz of the banter and humor
A Haaland hattrick isn't going to make most engaged managers who've sold take a -8 to get him back. They haven't sold him on a whim, and they won't buy him back on a whim. It's not like people are expecting him to not score forever, and to not get the occasional mega-haul. That'll change when Haaland starts averaging 2 a game again and at the same time, the other popular captain picks, and other popular forwards aren't delivering for 2-3 weeks. And most will have kept him 2 moves away all through to be ready for that scenario. But a Haaland haul alone doesn't mean every non-owner's immediately in for a massive red arrow - it does mean it'll be harder to get a green or it'll be smaller, but with the teams not owning Haaland enables, other things need to go wrong as well for it to really be a killer.
Hmm, if multiple low xG vs few high xG is essentially the same but with focus on the tail (i.e. multiple scored vs at least one scored), doesn't have implications on clean sheets of the opposition? i.e. losing the first goal is more consequential in fpl than losing further goals.
This was a really good watch! Cheers
Excellent discussion guys. I can get very close to review projections using raw data. I can confirm xMins is exactly what it says on the tin, if it's 45 it means a player is expected to play 45 minutes in that game. The chance of a player starting is a separate variable which is not included in the model. Ideally, one needs to run simulations using chance of starting/being subbed on instead.
The crossover that we never knew we needed 😍
@Sertalpbilal you never need to feel imposter syndrome, you and Bas are front and centre of the FPL stats and modelling world as far as the FPL community is concerned. The converse, are those CCs who just turn up and repeat what you can get from half a dozen other pods.
This is awesome... Bas and Sertalp, some banter will surely take this podcast to the next level...
I listen to two FPL podcasts mainly... and the only reason I listen to the other podcast is cuz of the banter and humor
Came for alon, stayed for great pod
always good to hear your vids :)
Amazing show 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Thanks!
A Haaland hattrick isn't going to make most engaged managers who've sold take a -8 to get him back. They haven't sold him on a whim, and they won't buy him back on a whim. It's not like people are expecting him to not score forever, and to not get the occasional mega-haul.
That'll change when Haaland starts averaging 2 a game again and at the same time, the other popular captain picks, and other popular forwards aren't delivering for 2-3 weeks. And most will have kept him 2 moves away all through to be ready for that scenario. But a Haaland haul alone doesn't mean every non-owner's immediately in for a massive red arrow - it does mean it'll be harder to get a green or it'll be smaller, but with the teams not owning Haaland enables, other things need to go wrong as well for it to really be a killer.
Well said
Hmm, if multiple low xG vs few high xG is essentially the same but with focus on the tail (i.e. multiple scored vs at least one scored), doesn't have implications on clean sheets of the opposition? i.e. losing the first goal is more consequential in fpl than losing further goals.
❤
BRO HOW IS SERTALP LESS THAN 200K AWAY FROM BAS
Bas messed up... but will jump back. 😉
@@basbelfi gotta prove these analytics wrong brother 😂
Think you're in the wrong place, lad @@Stef_FPL
@@Stef_FPL I'm trying! 😂
@@basbelfi WC will cooook Sertalp