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It's never easy but when we eventually make it through, people will say we were lucky. I suspect it will continue to be exhausting until a good chunk of investors give up hope; we may even see one more capitulation. Probably a good time to DCA into ETH though.
Let haters hate, but this guy saved my portfolio, saved my hard-earned money, and, potentially, millions of nerve cells. Thank you, Ben! You're the best!
Agreed! Thank you Ben. I hope you get a chance to read this.. Many of us have gone through this process of sorting out the trash in our content intake. Greatly appreciate the straight forward analysis and all the hard work you have put in. Nice to see this all play out. As you said, patience has been and likely will be key.
Ben, it looks like the bottom of the band in two months is about $1,100. If ETH is $1,100, and ETH/BTC drops to 0.03, it means that BTC/USD is $36,667. Even if ETH drops to $1,500 BTC/USD would be $50,000. Of course, if ETH/BTC is higher than 0.03, BTC/USD would be even lower. Can you please address this in one of your next videos? Mathematically, you are saying that BTC/USD will fall to $50,000 or less. This is pretty serious and to many even more important than the ETH video. Please, please address this. TBH, I’m surprised you didn’t because it’s the elephant in the room.
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For those nervous about this, speaking to myself as well because I know it's not easy, just look a little farther in the chart. Even if eth does go home it shoots way higher after a couple of months, to a point where it almost doesnt matter where you bought it at. So if you just plan to hold anyways, get away from the charts and check back in around january or so. Keep your mental health in check for when the bull really gets going, youll need to be firing on all cylinders when that happens. Max pain is watching alts fly while you're sidelined, and sidelined only out of fear or getting too greedy with finding the perfect bottom. I have made all of the above mistakes by the way!
The lows Ben is calling for would take the BTC/ETH valuation far too low. Even BTC would have to go down under 40k in this quarter. My hypothesis is that ETH DOESN't go down much lower in both eth/btc and eth/usd; however it will not be as strong in this cycle because it didn't hit those lows as we saw in previous cycle. This would fit the weak ETH, strong sol/alt narrative we've been hearing. Just my opinion :D
What he is basicly saying is that eth/btc will go to 0.01-0.02 because if eth "goes home" and ethbtc goes to only 0.3 thn the cycle is over because btc is at 30k and we can go on holiday untill 2028 again, if you think btc can go to 30k and magically rebound to 100kin a couple months like nothing happened you are beyond delusional
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One thing I was curious if you could answer is that if you believe ETH is to go that low then you must also think BTC has the ability to go into the low 30ks? Because for ETH to go sub 1k then BTC would need to be low 30s if we are even saying ETH has a .03 valuation against the BTC pair at that point. I’ve agreed with you on the dominance rally and I also do feel altcoins still have some bleeding to do but low 30k BTC seems unlikely especially without a recession. Would appreciate your thoughts on this. Thanks Ben
Why are you still thinking of bitcoin like the past when it was whales moving the market. These are different times everything will now cycle from bitcoin. Not like before when tables would turn. What's driving bitcoin up? The ETF. Who is driving the price up? BlackRock. The whole reason why bitcoin is going up is not because of a cycle, whales are now dolphin now that Wall Street has come in. The wealthiest whales will have inside information and follow blackrock because if they did their own thing the risk would be great as they have no control to holding support levels or rejecting resistance. Wall street can slump it lower or slap it higher at any given time. That's why alts ain't doing anything. The only way your cycle or 'alt season' will come into play this time is if wall street offload their bitcoin and go into alt coins. Do you really believe that is going to happen? Lol Bitcoin is daddy and doesn't have to go down if Eth goes down. Bitcoin is like Netflix and Ethereum is just another TV show. The only way Ethereum will go to all time highs is if BTC goes 100k or if BlackRock wall street step in. Which I think is possible but whales aren't in charge anymore
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He was wright about what matters IF you are not a trader. He was wrong about the BTC break out over 35k then, but he was not buying or selling there. His risk métrics bands and patience with alt pairs aged well for his portfolio. That is a fact!
For ETH to go down to those regions BTC would also need to go down. Not saying it's impossible but that would break the cycle. The weekly candle we're about to print on BTC makes me worry.
@@iaretehleet It's not a shitcoin. It's a utility token. It's comparable to oil. It has some value but its main purpose is utility. It's price should be a race to zero as the Ethereum network improves and scales. That's my best-case scenario for ETH. Worst case is it goes to zero against the USD too.
@@iaretehleetif it is a "shitcoin" why you guys use tokens like USDT built on a shitcoin to protect your money when BTC drops? you should have USDT on Bitcoin smart contracts... right?
The ETH/BTC pair won’t be going much lower from here, it’s already good enough to start trading BTC or pumping USD into Eth right now. Trying to target the exact bottom will make you lose easy opportunities.
You should be clearer ETH/USD could still go higher even if ETH goes home if BTC/USD goes way higher. If it didn't drop below the top of the support band during the 2022/2023 bear market why would go below now (unless there is a black swan event)? You have been right alot maybe it's time to be wrong?
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@@intothecryptoverse ETH did not go below the top of the Logarithmic trend line during the 2022/2023 bear market even with all the black swan events at today's price would be about 2k and if it goes down another 20% (to the -70% range) from today's price it would be at the 2 k range. This would be the most likely worst case bear market range (excluding any crazy black swan events). Last question does your wife get mad when your right so much?
As long as it pops back up.. i am cool. Because dropping home by December.. it would have 6 months to move back above. To a higher level. Please oh please move back above.
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@@trousersnake81 More like 2500$ today is like 1500$ in 2021, for BTC to hits same value as in 2021 if we take inflation that would be today around 100k, so we are still faaar away from 2021
Excellent arguments; unfortunately, I see it the same way Ben does. But: There's a reason Buffett is sitting on a record pile of cash, why the Buffett Indicator is at an all-time high, and why the market P/E ratio is also elevated. The historic stock market crash in Q1 (maybe January 2025) will shatter all crypto patterns! Why? Because no cryptocurrency has ever experienced a real stock market depression (last ones 2000 and 2008). It will be an unimaginable bloodbath. Then, of course, around summer 2025 will be the perfect time to buy. But let’s hope there’s a suitable Bitcoin bull run and a fitting altcoin rally beforehand, so we can take our profits, sit on a pile of cash like Buffett, and watch the downfall of stocks and coins with calm detachment. Personally, I suspect the altcoin rally won’t happen because it will simply come too late. The stock market crash, the first such event in crypto history, will slice through it like a hot knife through butter. Now let us pray.
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23:22 Hi Ben，Ethereum dropping 70% from its 2024 peak in the fourth quarter, ETH/BTC bottoming at 0.03, and Bitcoin breaking through its previous high. These three events cannot happen simultaneously. Additionally, there is another reason why Ethereum cannot drop to 1500 in the fourth quarter: the relative position between the current bull market support band and the regression line is higher than in 2016 and 2019, since its well above the regression line, making it unlikely to experience the 70% drop you mentioned.
What if you were right but instead ETH HOME Q4 2024 it would be ETH HOME Q4 2025. The slope would make sense, right? Thank you very much for your analyses, you are great!
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If $80, $100, $120, $150 were the bottoms of last cycle, high was $4800. That means this cycle lows would be $800, $1000, $1200, $1500, (10x) hight would be $48k ? If 48k is the high for this cycle, lows for next cycle(2028-30) be $8000, $10000, $12000, $15000? That’s still significantly higher than the current price. I might not be counting diminishing return but you get my idea !
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diminishing returns, I think, suggest a 0.618 multiple of returns. So if 60x was the previous, 36x at most. But, given that BTC tends to be a 0.236 multiple, about 13x. If eth hit the bottom of the band here, that would be 1k, so 13k out. I'm not betting on any of this though, just hedging. My guess is we're close enough to the eth bottom to make big purchases with low risk, and the top will be very moderate, sub-10k
You might be right, but I still don't think we'll see Eth go that low this time. Last time there wasn't enough htf price action. This time it has the monthly and 2-week cloud structure directing it, and we're much further along in the cycle. Besides everyone is waiting for it this time too. November is going to be interesting that's for sure.
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Currently, it looks like the Global Liquidity and the FED Balance are still going down. Is there any chance of another rally of both Bitcoin and Altcoins without QE?
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Bro your analysis are awesome and really helpful but the only thing concerning me and not making me jump on the dominance train completely is that there are some exceptions like SOL and its ecosystem, I'm following you on one of my biggest wallets and its doing great. But still on my main wallet I've some SOL and some of its ecosystem tokens and with some care they're saving my wallet, so what's your take on that I would love to hear your opinion.
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not factoring that in 2020 we printed trillions of dollars and handed it out to all people. We had 0% interest rate on monitery policy in US and negative interest rates in Japan
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Yes BTC pairs would definitly would be playing out. That doesn't mean price of Alts in USDT pairs will dump. It could happen that only BTC pumps like whats happening now and the alts either don't move or come down slightly.
thank you for talking a lot about ETH/USD in this video, as someone who's looking to DCA into good ALT/USD entries, this information is worth pure gold, team cowen every day n' every night 🕺 I'd put more value on ETH/BTC, if the taxation rules in germany were different, here it makes sense to hold a coin at least for one year, then you can sell tax free. So buying BTC until ETH/BTC bottoms out is not really an option for me anymore if I want to avoid taxation headaches
I'd really appreciate your opinion about how crypto might perform during its first recession, because there are some claiming that it would mean the end of the bull run and the start of the next bear market.
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He explained in another video the possibility of a soft landing in Q4 if BTC follows the monetary policy way where Btc could get to 42K so it makes sense that ETH could go to 1100$
Hey Ben! Thank you for information and for the videos. Can you talk about OTHER and Altcoins? When are you starting to invest in some altcoins and when do you think they will outperform BTC?
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Wow, man that's unbelievable. In 2016 there was a double top on EthUsd W1 and then Eth created a lower wick on Mon 01 Aug '16 and then started to go dow below that wick. This time there was also a double top then Eth created a lower wick on Mon 05 Aug '24 and now it's chasing that wick 🤯
@@Robbie83440yes i believe this is right! you’ll be able to buy more btc with your eth if eth/btc goes up from its bottom. in theory when you buy this ‘more btc’ btc would be at a higher price so you’ll do well in usd valuation too
In Crypto years, Only a black swan at this point would see ETH go home to 1000k If ETH goes to home, Also everything else will incl BTC therefore end of bull run.
if i may give u one tip stop comparing it to what people say just present your view it makes the video less good. also the proving you are right is pointless everyone is right and wrong just keep it on the analyses. personally i think its a great analyses and think that lots of people are brainwashed by the youtubers already presenting the bull market. they dont wanna believe you even if it is true.
The double top in 2016 broke down and hit the measured target which happened to correlate to the bottom of the regression channel. However the 2024 double top has already played out. It already hit its target at ~2k. Maybe it revisits 2k again prior to pumping, totally possible but that seems like the bottom
Eth/btc is at 0.035 and btc.d is 60% ... it doesn't make sense to go bearish on Eth betting on a further short term dump... it may or may not happen ... you may miss the upside if ETH just started to pump from here to 0.08 next year which makes buying at 0.035 or 0.03 a mute point... the correct strategy is start buying eth and converting your BTCs to ETH now.
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ETH/USD is at monthly support, and being bid. ETH/BTC is approaching a macro demand zone. If you are betting on a 60% ETH/USD drop at this point, you are offside. Ben could be right, but this is a very speculative and dangerous idea.
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@userhdbfdfjkhfdhf his advice has been to measure your portfolio by its satoshi value instead of its USD value. Although his base case is for ETH to go home, he doesnt have the same conviction in this prediction as he did in BTC.d going over 60% and ETH/BTC dropping to 0.03-0.04. So his advice has been to stay BTC heavy and maybe now start hedging by converting some BTC to ETH, now that ETH/BTC has dropped into the 0.03- 0.04 range. He even says in this video, it's very high risk to sell into USD in the hope ETH goes home, when it very well may not. TLDR, don't sell and hope but maybe start converting some of your BTC to ETH if your risk tolerance allows for it
I like this! I damn well hope you are wrong Ben, but at least you got the balls and have an opinion, not just saying stuff that can work either way like many other RUclipsrs. Respect!
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Why claim the $ is going to zero? A $ is always worth a $ and always retains value as long as the economy is productive and he government has the ability to tax. The fact it is almost always inflationary does not contradict this.
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Timely video Ben, I started losing the conviction in ETH/BTC bouncing, but you have made it make sense for me and I will hang in there ... Hoping for a big 2025 bounce. Thanks for your insights.
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Ben please add crypto payment. it's into the CRYPTOverse not fiatverse , loll
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This is one exhausting cycle lol
Straight up 😂
Seriously, it's soul sucking.
It's never easy but when we eventually make it through, people will say we were lucky.
I suspect it will continue to be exhausting until a good chunk of investors give up hope; we may even see one more capitulation.
Probably a good time to DCA into ETH though.
True 😂 especially us waited for 3 years that has profit back then and bought an AI coin that I don't know that if it will go up.
If you’re still here with us you’ve already beaten out 99% of people. Our patience will pay off
Let haters hate, but this guy saved my portfolio, saved my hard-earned money, and, potentially, millions of nerve cells. Thank you, Ben! You're the best!
With all the work I put in to sort out the BS channels this one in in the true pile with skills we can take to the bank!
Same here 🙏🏼
Agreed! Thank you Ben. I hope you get a chance to read this.. Many of us have gone through this process of sorting out the trash in our content intake. Greatly appreciate the straight forward analysis and all the hard work you have put in. Nice to see this all play out. As you said, patience has been and likely will be key.
100% Ben is an absolute genius!!!! Staying BTC heavy has saved me soooo much stress!!! Thank you Ben x
Same brother.
Go home ETH, you are drunk
🍻 I just got a mental picture of Vitalik drunk. 😆
Go home ???? What price is home ???
Ethereum 💙
Ben, it looks like the bottom of the band in two months is about $1,100. If ETH is $1,100, and ETH/BTC drops to 0.03, it means that BTC/USD is $36,667. Even if ETH drops to $1,500 BTC/USD would be $50,000. Of course, if ETH/BTC is higher than 0.03, BTC/USD would be even lower. Can you please address this in one of your next videos? Mathematically, you are saying that BTC/USD will fall to $50,000 or less. This is pretty serious and to many even more important than the ETH video. Please, please address this. TBH, I’m surprised you didn’t because it’s the elephant in the room.
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He mentioned many times that BTCUSD might go to 100 week SMA like in some previous cycles, which would be around the yearly open, $42,000.
Yes, or BTC/USD around $60,000 and ETH/BTC drops to 0.02.
@ $1,100 / 0.02 = $55,000
I guess if it happens at the end of the year the band will be higher? I agree with you thought, that’s been on my mind too
Back then Eth had marketcap less than 20b in 2019. Now its close to 300b. A 30-50% drop! Hard to believe.
IF ETH GOES HOME, WE GOING HOMELESS!!
😂 true
😂
Ethereum is the hope for decentralised on-chain crypto.
At least we'll have fun stories to tell our grandkids
100% underrated comment :D
For those nervous about this, speaking to myself as well because I know it's not easy, just look a little farther in the chart. Even if eth does go home it shoots way higher after a couple of months, to a point where it almost doesnt matter where you bought it at. So if you just plan to hold anyways, get away from the charts and check back in around january or so. Keep your mental health in check for when the bull really gets going, youll need to be firing on all cylinders when that happens. Max pain is watching alts fly while you're sidelined, and sidelined only out of fear or getting too greedy with finding the perfect bottom. I have made all of the above mistakes by the way!
thank you!!
The lows Ben is calling for would take the BTC/ETH valuation far too low. Even BTC would have to go down under 40k in this quarter.
My hypothesis is that ETH DOESN't go down much lower in both eth/btc and eth/usd; however it will not be as strong in this cycle because it didn't hit those lows as we saw in previous cycle.
This would fit the weak ETH, strong sol/alt narrative we've been hearing. Just my opinion :D
What he is basicly saying is that eth/btc will go to 0.01-0.02 because if eth "goes home" and ethbtc goes to only 0.3 thn the cycle is over because btc is at 30k and we can go on holiday untill 2028 again, if you think btc can go to 30k and magically rebound to 100kin a couple months like nothing happened you are beyond delusional
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Bro if btc goes to 30k until 2028 then i think it'll stay there, and the game is over.
I do not mean touch 30k, I mean persistent
One thing I was curious if you could answer is that if you believe ETH is to go that low then you must also think BTC has the ability to go into the low 30ks? Because for ETH to go sub 1k then BTC would need to be low 30s if we are even saying ETH has a .03 valuation against the BTC pair at that point. I’ve agreed with you on the dominance rally and I also do feel altcoins still have some bleeding to do but low 30k BTC seems unlikely especially without a recession. Would appreciate your thoughts on this. Thanks Ben
Why are you still thinking of bitcoin like the past when it was whales moving the market. These are different times everything will now cycle from bitcoin. Not like before when tables would turn.
What's driving bitcoin up? The ETF.
Who is driving the price up? BlackRock.
The whole reason why bitcoin is going up is not because of a cycle, whales are now dolphin now that Wall Street has come in. The wealthiest whales will have inside information and follow blackrock because if they did their own thing the risk would be great as they have no control to holding support levels or rejecting resistance. Wall street can slump it lower or slap it higher at any given time. That's why alts ain't doing anything. The only way your cycle or 'alt season' will come into play this time is if wall street offload their bitcoin and go into alt coins. Do you really believe that is going to happen? Lol
Bitcoin is daddy and doesn't have to go down if Eth goes down. Bitcoin is like Netflix and Ethereum is just another TV show.
The only way Ethereum will go to all time highs is if BTC goes 100k or if BlackRock wall street step in. Which I think is possible but whales aren't in charge anymore
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ETH dropping another 20% is not a big deal tbh. Grateful to you for the magnificent analysis
Ben has been right the entire bear market
Yup
It's hard to deny btc dominance he keeps pushing. So yeah he's right, every other subject follows this idea
@@thenarza7307 forgot about that. what a wild breakout that was
He was wright about what matters IF you are not a trader. He was wrong about the BTC break out over 35k then, but he was not buying or selling there. His risk métrics bands and patience with alt pairs aged well for his portfolio. That is a fact!
He is wrong he is wrong he is wrong what Happening many salty people in this space, i step on the b cowen road for me everything is fine ❤
For ETH to go down to those regions BTC would also need to go down. Not saying it's impossible but that would break the cycle. The weekly candle we're about to print on BTC makes me worry.
55k$ BTC is still within Bull market structure.
It wouldn’t break the cycle at all. Still plenty of time for price to break down and make its way back up to cyclical expectations
Ethereum is not an investment. It's a utility token. So is solana, so is BNB, so is Cardano. They all go to zero when measured in BTC
Agree 100%
This. It is a shitcoin
@@iaretehleet It's not a shitcoin. It's a utility token. It's comparable to oil. It has some value but its main purpose is utility. It's price should be a race to zero as the Ethereum network improves and scales.
That's my best-case scenario for ETH.
Worst case is it goes to zero against the USD too.
@@iaretehleetif it is a "shitcoin" why you guys use tokens like USDT built on a shitcoin to protect your money when BTC drops? you should have USDT on Bitcoin smart contracts... right?
The problem with Bitcoin is that it's mining is killing it.
The ETH/BTC pair won’t be going much lower from here, it’s already good enough to start trading BTC or pumping USD into Eth right now. Trying to target the exact bottom will make you lose easy opportunities.
If ETH goes home...will back up the truck... if it goes 1500... will sell my kidney 😂
Same here
You should be clearer ETH/USD could still go higher even if ETH goes home if BTC/USD goes way higher. If it didn't drop below the top of the support band during the 2022/2023 bear market why would go below now (unless there is a black swan event)? You have been right alot maybe it's time to be wrong?
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It could be time for me to be wrong, but I will still express my opinion.
ETH is such a value buy now. Utility does matter, unless you enjoy living in a cloud cuckoo land.
@@intothecryptoverse ETH did not go below the top of the Logarithmic trend line during the 2022/2023 bear market even with all the black swan events at today's price would be about 2k and if it goes down another 20% (to the -70% range) from today's price it would be at the 2 k range. This would be the most likely worst case bear market range (excluding any crazy black swan events). Last question does your wife get mad when your right so much?
@@n0w0n70 🤣🤣🤣
As long as it pops back up.. i am cool. Because dropping home by December.. it would have 6 months to move back above. To a higher level. Please oh please move back above.
very humble aproach, thanks for sharing your views!
Wonder if the bands are still valid for this past couple years where USD inflation spiked. Maybe $2000 is the new $1500.
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you mean 2k is the new 1500?
@@trousersnake81 yes sorry haha was too early :P
@@trousersnake81 More like 2500$ today is like 1500$ in 2021, for BTC to hits same value as in 2021 if we take inflation that would be today around 100k, so we are still faaar away from 2021
Excellent arguments; unfortunately, I see it the same way Ben does.
But: There's a reason Buffett is sitting on a record pile of cash, why the Buffett Indicator is at an all-time high, and why the market P/E ratio is also elevated. The historic stock market crash in Q1 (maybe January 2025) will shatter all crypto patterns! Why? Because no cryptocurrency has ever experienced a real stock market depression (last ones 2000 and 2008). It will be an unimaginable bloodbath.
Then, of course, around summer 2025 will be the perfect time to buy. But let’s hope there’s a suitable Bitcoin bull run and a fitting altcoin rally beforehand, so we can take our profits, sit on a pile of cash like Buffett, and watch the downfall of stocks and coins with calm detachment. Personally, I suspect the altcoin rally won’t happen because it will simply come too late. The stock market crash, the first such event in crypto history, will slice through it like a hot knife through butter. Now let us pray.
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23:22 Hi Ben，Ethereum dropping 70% from its 2024 peak in the fourth quarter, ETH/BTC bottoming at 0.03, and Bitcoin breaking through its previous high. These three events cannot happen simultaneously. Additionally, there is another reason why Ethereum cannot drop to 1500 in the fourth quarter: the relative position between the current bull market support band and the regression line is higher than in 2016 and 2019, since its well above the regression line, making it unlikely to experience the 70% drop you mentioned.
What if you were right but instead ETH HOME Q4 2024 it would be ETH HOME Q4 2025. The slope would make sense, right?
Thank you very much for your analyses, you are great!
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If $80, $100, $120, $150 were the bottoms of last cycle, high was $4800. That means this cycle lows would be $800, $1000, $1200, $1500, (10x) hight would be $48k ? If 48k is the high for this cycle, lows for next cycle(2028-30) be $8000, $10000, $12000, $15000? That’s still significantly higher than the current price.
I might not be counting diminishing return but you get my idea !
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diminishing returns, I think, suggest a 0.618 multiple of returns. So if 60x was the previous, 36x at most. But, given that BTC tends to be a 0.236 multiple, about 13x. If eth hit the bottom of the band here, that would be 1k, so 13k out. I'm not betting on any of this though, just hedging. My guess is we're close enough to the eth bottom to make big purchases with low risk, and the top will be very moderate, sub-10k
You might be right, but I still don't think we'll see Eth go that low this time. Last time there wasn't enough htf price action. This time it has the monthly and 2-week cloud structure directing it, and we're much further along in the cycle. Besides everyone is waiting for it this time too. November is going to be interesting that's for sure.
Your basicly saying the bullmarket is over... for this to happen btc also needs to back to around $40k...
I think Ben is just calling for an ETH retracement. IMO we will start seeing blow off tops after that.
What on earth are you on about? where is he saying the bull market would be over? Just talking about ETH retracement which is normal.
A 40k BTC wick is plausible, the market often likes a nasty shakeout before the real move up begins.
ben, could you start adjusting your charts for inflation?
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I hope it won't happen, eth didnt touch the regression line yet this cycle
Ben, for your premium membership, do you give indications on when you buy or sell your portfolio assets in real time?
Just a suggestion: sign-up for the *ITC Premium Pro plan* for a month-experience it for yourself-see if it’s right for you, has what you’re looking for, or even exceeds your expectations… you can always cancel anytime or switch to the Standard plan if it’s more suited to your needs.
Here’s a link to the breakdown of the different plans/tiers: help.intothecryptoverse.com/support/solutions/articles/69000833996-what-charts-tools-are-offered-in-each-tier
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Thank u so much
Solid points.
Currently, it looks like the Global Liquidity and the FED Balance are still going down.
Is there any chance of another rally of both Bitcoin and Altcoins without QE?
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Anyone know what indicator that is and by who its made?
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Found it: ITC Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Band by bjcowen
Bro your analysis are awesome and really helpful but the only thing concerning me and not making me jump on the dominance train completely is that there are some exceptions like SOL and its ecosystem, I'm following you on one of my biggest wallets and its doing great. But still on my main wallet I've some SOL and some of its ecosystem tokens and with some care they're saving my wallet, so what's your take on that I would love to hear your opinion.
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Agree Totally worth consider this scenario
Not factoring in this time is different with ETH ETFs
not factoring that in 2020 we printed trillions of dollars and handed it out to all people. We had 0% interest rate on monitery policy in US and negative interest rates in Japan
does this affect to all altcoins, the complete crypte market? we are in halving year, elctions ,rate cuts.. really interresting video!!
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Yes BTC pairs would definitly would be playing out. That doesn't mean price of Alts in USDT pairs will dump. It could happen that only BTC pumps like whats happening now and the alts either don't move or come down slightly.
Way too many people are bullish right now and that is kind of scaring me out ngl
Im betting against the crowd … there will be one more big crash before we fly
@@hetman3196 at least one.
Cheers Ben for all if your thoughts on the Cryptoverse, forever Grateful to have found your U Tube Channel😀
These thumbnails are great Ben!
thank you for talking a lot about ETH/USD in this video,
as someone who's looking to DCA into good ALT/USD entries, this information is worth pure gold,
team cowen every day n' every night 🕺
I'd put more value on ETH/BTC, if the taxation rules in germany were different, here it makes sense to hold a coin at least for one year, then you can sell tax free.
So buying BTC until ETH/BTC bottoms out is not really an option for me anymore if I want to avoid taxation headaches
The best analysis by far. Good or bad , can’t say how much I appreciate your opinions!
Perfect Ben. Will get back in after your price target
I'd really appreciate your opinion about how crypto might perform during its first recession,
because there are some claiming that it would mean the end of the bull run and the start of the next bear market.
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The whole world is in recession since 2022, they just cooking the books
I really like your videos and analysis. I have kuddos that you are right with ETH going home so I can load my bags. Keep the good work and thanks!
A smarter option would be to dca now, and increase how quickly you dca as price drops imo
@@mmredfs361 thats a good strategy indeed, I will do with my paychecks, but I just sold all my eth to buy again in the dip.
IMO, Ben has the best and most honest TA viewpoints on the market, and Crypto ... keep being Dubious !!!!!
شكرا استاذ
THANK you for doing this and give us more insight, im more carefull now with ETH
He explained in another video the possibility of a soft landing in Q4 if BTC follows the monetary policy way where Btc could get to 42K so it makes sense that ETH could go to 1100$
Hey Ben! Thank you for information and for the videos. Can you talk about OTHER and Altcoins? When are you starting to invest in some altcoins and when do you think they will outperform BTC?
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This is some good analysis IMO, pointing out the similarities in time periods, similarities I did not notice beforehand.
Ben - Great informative video.
Took me 2 years to understand the whole 60% Bitcoin dominance, but it is all falling into place. 😊
Wow, man that's unbelievable. In 2016 there was a double top on EthUsd W1 and then Eth created a lower wick on Mon 01 Aug '16 and then started to go dow below that wick. This time there was also a double top then Eth created a lower wick on Mon 05 Aug '24 and now it's chasing that wick 🤯
Ben I'd love to see a video on MSTR! I remember when you had him on the channel back in the day
How can people stil not understand the difference between ETH/BTC and ETH/USD? How much explanation do you need? Unbelievable. Good video again Ben!
I understand that it will bottom and ETH will start to outperform BTC. Then you use those gains to get more BTC…. Am I wrong?
@@Robbie83440yes i believe this is right! you’ll be able to buy more btc with your eth if eth/btc goes up from its bottom. in theory when you buy this ‘more btc’ btc would be at a higher price so you’ll do well in usd valuation too
Saylor loves to leverage. I think Ethereum is less leveraged than Bitcoin at the moment.
Thank you Ben
In Crypto years, Only a black swan at this point would see ETH go home to 1000k If ETH goes to home, Also everything else will incl BTC therefore end of bull run.
End?
Thanks ben great viewpoint. I was looking at a bearflag on eth target around 1600. it aligns perfect with yours. interesting
if i may give u one tip stop comparing it to what people say just present your view it makes the video less good. also the proving you are right is pointless everyone is right and wrong just keep it on the analyses. personally i think its a great analyses and think that lots of people are brainwashed by the youtubers already presenting the bull market. they dont wanna believe you even if it is true.
The double top in 2016 broke down and hit the measured target which happened to correlate to the bottom of the regression channel. However the 2024 double top has already played out. It already hit its target at ~2k. Maybe it revisits 2k again prior to pumping, totally possible but that seems like the bottom
Thanks Ben, well seems like another milestone...to be honest...just impact full as the BTC.D one.
Eth/btc is at 0.035 and btc.d is 60% ... it doesn't make sense to go bearish on Eth betting on a further short term dump... it may or may not happen ... you may miss the upside if ETH just started to pump from here to 0.08 next year which makes buying at 0.035 or 0.03 a mute point... the correct strategy is start buying eth and converting your BTCs to ETH now.
This might be the one prediction no one cares to ostracize you....because most of us have moved on from ETH....
Its not just about ETH, alts will most likely follow ETH.
OTHERS/BTC and TOTAL3/BTC are putting in new cycle lows. Keep pretending like they are not though, I'm sure that will work out.
Don't sleep on ETH. Bitcoin is not on-chain crypto.
Bottom signal
Hello ben. Why is there no subtitles in this video?
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Go to: *Settings > Captions > Auto-translate* and if your language isn’t listed then request it from RUclips. Ben doesn’t determine the various subtitle translations-RUclips does✔️
ETH/USD is at monthly support, and being bid. ETH/BTC is approaching a macro demand zone. If you are betting on a 60% ETH/USD drop at this point, you are offside. Ben could be right, but this is a very speculative and dangerous idea.
I put this idea out in March when ETH was $4k. You cannot wait until now and pretend like I'm only just now presenting it.
As we stand here today we patiently await the beauty of mathematics 52 🤓
what is the name of the indicator of the regression band?? Thanks Ben for great content
It’s posted on the ITC X acct👉 x.com/itc_crypto/status/1853147708183441917 👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything (AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, *Charts & Indicators,* Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🤔
ive just left my eth in cold, should i just sell up and go all BTC?
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Ben you make the best videos. Please keep it like that.
You are right sir , well done !
Finally he's started to talk about eth/USDT
if the bottom for eth/btc is already in and eth drops to 1,5k.. this means that btc must drop even lower percentage-wise.. am I right?
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Maybe we should w8 another 4 years to have a bull run for alts
Love the ETH 10x cycle to cycle comparison.
Thank you so much once again!
The best Crypto-Channel of all RUclips
You are a genius! I admire you!
I hold the same thesis for months and I have came to this coclusion using the Elliot Wave analysis.
GREAT WORK!!!
Please keep us updated!!!
SPOT ON!!!
Thank you
Thanks for the insight, what you say makes a lot of sense.
Eth is going back to crypto Jesus. Don’t be sad it’s a celebration really . 🎉🎉🎉. Peace be with you and gains too,
Ben converted my link and eth into BTC hope I made the right as they haven’t performed Walstreet is here thanks Ben
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As an observer of facts and not narrative, I THANK YOU Ben👍
Ben’s hard work make all the sense and let others make there own decisions on memes and altcoins
THANKS! YOU VERY SMART!
In short, just wait until it drops lower before getting in eth, right?
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No
@@Cernufi So what exactly should people do according to this clip?
@userhdbfdfjkhfdhf his advice has been to measure your portfolio by its satoshi value instead of its USD value. Although his base case is for ETH to go home, he doesnt have the same conviction in this prediction as he did in BTC.d going over 60% and ETH/BTC dropping to 0.03-0.04. So his advice has been to stay BTC heavy and maybe now start hedging by converting some BTC to ETH, now that ETH/BTC has dropped into the 0.03- 0.04 range.
He even says in this video, it's very high risk to sell into USD in the hope ETH goes home, when it very well may not.
TLDR, don't sell and hope but maybe start converting some of your BTC to ETH if your risk tolerance allows for it
Love these ideas, thank you
I like this! I damn well hope you are wrong Ben, but at least you got the balls and have an opinion, not just saying stuff that can work either way like many other RUclipsrs. Respect!
I want to buy ETH at 2k or less
eth's value against btc is what matters. This is Ben's point. Good luck.
@mattmaloney2445 when the only thing you got is usd, it's value against btc does not matter
why didnt you buy it when it was already under 2k?
@ I did not have the funds at the time. I want a whole ETH
@@mattmaloney2445 btc can sky rocket and eth stays as is and would still meet crtieria
Bro you kill!ng me everyday 😢
Not negligible at all. I agree it feels like eth needs to go home once more before it can go into any new territory
Preach!
Can you do sol?
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Going home would be awesome. We can go traveling again next year!
Why claim the $ is going to zero? A $ is always worth a $ and always retains value as long as the economy is productive and he government has the ability to tax. The fact it is almost always inflationary does not contradict this.
It prolly was an overstatement.
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Thx a lot Gandalf of The Cryptoverse.
Hello Benjamin, I think you forgot to add the text and subtitles. We would be very happy if you could fix this mistake.
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@@ITC_Admin muchas gracıas
What is the price of eth home?
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On ETH's house the front door is at $1800, the back door is $1000
Timely video Ben, I started losing the conviction in ETH/BTC bouncing, but you have made it make sense for me and I will hang in there ... Hoping for a big 2025 bounce. Thanks for your insights.