Tesla's Energy Revolution w/ James Douma & Matt Smith
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- Опубликовано: 13 май 2024
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:04:25 What current Energy regulations look like
00:12:30 Why the current regulations are weird
00:26:00 How Tesla's Master Plan Part 3 works into this
00:37:52 Why Tesla could be sandbagging Master Plan 3's impact
01:03:23 The hurdles of the energy transition
01:26:15 How the hurdles could be overcome 
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What was your favorite part of the discussion? List your favorite timestamps!
Really liked the part about VPP 1:28:00 to at least 1:33:00
The grid is in for a rude awakening. In ten years its going to be cheaper to produce and store your own energy than what they charge just for the privilege of being connected to the grid, before the actual energy costs are added to the bill.
21:38
I fully expected Matt to say that he and the project manager started a gasoline fight, Zoolander style 😂
Thanks to the three of you. I would love, if you would have loved if you touched a bit the theme of rebuilding a damaged/destroyed grid with solar and wind mb in California after the BigOne or somewhat more near term in Europe :-) Love from Vienne/Autriche
"what if capitalism inadvertently leads to communism"
Sounds crazy, but after this conversation, seems inevitable.
James is always great to listen to . He understands things from many different perspectives - and explains complex things in an easy to understand way...(is he an alien ?)
He is great
He’s definitely an alien :)
I’d like to actually see some credible evidence of who he is?
I mean I have been following for 3+ years like the guy but would like to know
@@tasd5673 He's a super-intelligent alien - that is all you humans need to know...
Intellectually, yes. From the same planet as Elon Musk. There, it's a Tesler day 7 days a week, Booster week 365 days a year.
I'm a simple guy - if I see James Douma on the panel I watch the vid ASAP!
Tony Seba came to the same conclusion and calls the excess power "superpower".
James is one of the best communicators I’ve ever listened to. I could listen to him for hours. I also really enjoy his 🐻 tweets.
The quality of Farzad’s videos is always dependent upon the quality of his guests. This was one of the best yet.
Apart from the adverts this was an AMAZING meetings of minds that selflessly give up their time for the greater good. This is what humanity should be about. Thank you Farzad.
Number of advertisements is out of control
James is the GOAT. I could listen to him for hours on end. Matt and Farzad are awesome too of course :)
There is so much substance here. I'm going to have to watch at least twice. This is an enormous opportunity for Tesla.
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James...so much wisdom and clarity! Paired with Matt's experience and perspective it's a must-see! 🤯
So refreshing to see energy/utilities being analyzed and discussed. It’s very esoteric and complicated, but an equally large opportunity compared to automotive. Excited to see the retail Tesla community pick this thing apart so that the larger community can finally grasp/understand how we generate/buy/sell energy nationwide.
It seems ridiculous compared to Australia. We have an easier system and the right to install solar
JAMES IS A BEAST, thank you sir
When James speaks, I listen.
God bless Tony Seba. He’s been projecting the cost curves on energy for over a decade and people laughed. He also discusses super abundant cheap and negative cost power. Look at Norway today - the electric providers are in a negative cost of generation and it’s a problem. 😂
While I love most of your presentations, this is above and beyond everything else you have done. Appreciation to all three of you.
Excellent discussion, loved every minute of it.
Love James, super knowledgeable.
Love the long format Farzad.
Lol I used to work at Curtis-Wright and I had no idea Wright’s law was named after the founder. I love how knowledgeable James Douma is. He drops so many little nuggets of info every time he speaks. It’s mind-blowing
Before the breakup, when AT&T was "The Phone Company" (U.S. monopoly) it used its monopoly largesse to fund "Bell Labs".
Bell Labs invented the transistor, discovered the "Big Bang", invented UNIX operating system and the C, C++ and R programming languages.
Matt!!! So good to have your energy background on this discussion. Thank you!!
This has been one of the most interesting discussions I’ve heard in a while. I guess it helps that the presenters are tops on my list and it tracks my beliefs to begin with. 😅
This was one of the most mind blowing videos I've experienced. This video should be watched by everyone. Love it.
Would have liked to hear Tony Seba and RethinkX get a shoutout during this conversation. They have been promoting free excess energy ("superpower") via Solar, Wind, and Batteries (SWB) for years.
One of the better shows Farzad very interesting both guests brought it!
As a Tesla and energy nerd who is a GA electricity ratepayer, this podcast is just what I want to hear.
This was a super valuable episode. James and Matt are rock stars! Good job keeping the conversation interesting and entertaining. Thanks!
Omg. Douma and Smith! Love these guys. Good juxtaposition of understanding. Two different angles meeting at the renewable vortex. 💋
Great convo and intelligent perspectives!
Siiiiiiiick! Been waiting for this video for like a week! Always excited to learn about utilities.
Great conversation. Im Australia for quite a while now, homes feeding solar back to the grid have experienced lower and lower feed in tariffs.
What will stop people from unplugging from the grid and just generating their own power and storing it for use at times they don't generate power?
Generally nothing. There is, IIRC, one location (Florida?) that will not allow people to disconnect from the grid. The solution, everywhere, is to install a reasonable amount of solar and storage and only use the grid when experiencing multiple days of very low solar generation.
I agree that federal, state, local governments and utilities are not going to allow people to disconnect from the grid for free. Electricity will be a growing profit for utilities and governments. Even with your own solar and energy storage they will find a someway to charge and/or tax you.
The best Tesla nerd out combo possible. Thanks to all 3 of you!
hi i consulted to the utility/energy industry since 1993. Key states, those that tend to be more forward thinking, have enacted legislation to ‘decouple’ earnings from electricity/natural gas sales. This way, utilities do not earn based solely in sales. There are incentives to cut energy use and expand clean energy. California and Hawaii are key leaders, but other states are doing the same. More states need to do this. Also the water industry needs to do this.
Fantastic Discussion and glad to know that Tesla is going to play a major part in this journey ! Great panel.....
Really nice to hear about the energy side of Tesla. I learned a lot from this talk. Thanks for taking the time to do it.
I have worked in the utility industry for 40 years as a senior leader and own a Tesla. Several comments on utility assets planning,
While I rates are set based on capital expenses for regulated utilities required to several all customers in their area - provisions need to be understood.
1. Most states have set carbon goals. The utility asset and energy source plan needs to consider the state requirements but also have a mandate for the lowest cost and reliable grids.
2. Many states require the cheapest energy source to be considered for the next generation, and it needs to include transmission
3. While the state PUCs set the rate of return, this can impact investment, cost reduction, and maintenance on the grid or energy sources
4. Most States require the utility to have their resource plan approved both several years out and longer10 year plans.
Many nonregulated states have higher energy costs and less reliable grids
Farzad comes across to me a a genuine good fellow. And I'm pretty good at this.
This was great! Love the content! Thanks James, Matt and Farzad!
it’s great to get a realistic & optimistic perspective. I was feeling pessimistic after I saw an MSM piece recently by CNBC titled “Can the U.S. power grid handle the EV boom?”
…although Matt makes a good point that in the interim, there’s going to be a tough transition
Thank you guys for a fantastic video. As a former patron of Matt it is great to se him explain about the energy markets.
Thanks for your support back then, and thanks even more for the great work you are doing at Rystad now! I actually didn't know about Rystad during the Spark Spread days but I got really excited when I realized a few months ago that you were one of my patrons back then. Much respect!
Great information for planning the future
Great discussion
I wish (I hope followup disc. will include…) the discussion included risk(s), possible unintended consequences and downside of this coming energy tidal wave! Regardless, super-dupper discussion! Thanks to all three of you!
James for president
James Douma is such a wealth of information, and I'm going to have to follow Matt Smith now, too. Great discussion.
That's not an accounting practice, that's corruption.
Damn, I just cut my initial reply into docs, and it was two pages. I'll simply say: this is the most valuable video you've posted to date, and I hope that the three of you can make it a regular thing.
The growth of Tesla energy storage is insane. 200 - 300% growth yoy.
Do you think they can keep that pace for the years to come?
And how do you think this will effect the price for the consumers?
Not 200% or more per year. Building off a small base one can generate very large growth percentages with little additional production. Going from 1 to 2 is 100% growth. But to grow from 1,000 to 2,000 is a much harder task.
Storage prices will come down, probably rapidly. LFP cells are fairly simple. Lots of companies can produce them, and already are. As production increases competition will cause prices to fall. But for the near term demand is likely to stay high enough so that some consumers will gladly pay premium prices which will delay massive price reductions.
Amazing talk. Thank you 🙏
And hopeful for a part 2 🙂
James is spot on - the last 5% of solar is tricky everywhere.
The inside of a utility is like a Dilbert cartoon.
The engineers are Dilbert and they get it, but...
Excellent convo, guys!
Yes, in Florida I can install solar but I'm not allowed to leave the grid. If I live within a power company's service area I must connect and pay a monthly connection fee according to the Florida PSC. To some extent this makes sense becasue the grid serves me in ways other than just powering my house but this is the lever Matt talks about that power companies will use to preserve their non-competitive ways. This is what Tony Seba warned us about years ago.
Awesome Farzad thank you for arranging this video
That was a pretty awesome interview or conversation I guess.
I'd really like to see the follow-up. Good conversation!
Great content, as always. Thanks guys
Great information on the grid which, it seems, is not easy to find. I understand more about the grid, power generation and transmission. Several illusions have been dispelled leaving me with a much clearer understanding of what the future might hold. Thanks to all.
Matt looks like a character from MAX Headroom from the 80's 😂
Matt, it's not 2040 or 2050. Your electric car already has enough for a week, even without a power wall. The real issue is that politicians will try to forbid customers to leave
My solor pannels cover 100% of use for 10 months a year. My credits in summer get me thru winter, credits run out in February. Get billed for about 1/2 of usage in February and March. Aprill is balance month and ends in 0 net.
2:05:58
That would be an awesome series. Explore ideas that energy abundance would permit.
I learn at lot of this lecture. Thank you, James, Matt and Farzad.
Farzad, you might want to branch your channel: Talk ‘Radio’ and Education. Absolutely appreciate the knowledge transfer.
Working on it!
@@farzyness branching was a poor choice of words. Just a banner to indicate knowledge transfer content would suffice.
Warm regards for the Netherlands.
Incredibly valuable
Excellent show... I've been slowly collecting a set of similar proclamations about renewable energy approaching superabundance and neat zero cost and all that becomes possible at that point such as compute, desalination, synthetic in situ rocket fuel (does that beat hydrogen for seasonal), ammonia fertilizer, carbon sequestration as methane or longer hydrocarbon chains pumped back into old oil wells, etc etc.
These guys are phenomenal
F’ing legends. Love you guys.
Thanks!
wow , this accounting system is very interesting
THANKS FOR SHARING THIS INFO ℹ️👍😎💚💚💚
Brilliant guys thanks.
Awesome discussion. Mind blowing!
Awesome information 🙏
Man, this is great! So great that I created a special playlist just focused on the exciting clean, green future; this is the kind of optimistic future talk I need! Up until recently, I was living in a self-converted school bus in Austin, Texas. Thank god I'm not there this summer! I had solar and batteries and what these guys are talking about is spot on. Even since I bought my panels a year ago the relatively premium Q-Cell 395W panels I bought 8 of went from ~$400/panel to ~$300 a panel. You can buy palettes of high quality used panels from solar farms for $0.25/kw or in my panel analogy it'd be $100 for the panel I bought new for $400 each. We're already very close to almost free unlimited power. Concerning the 95% coverage topic, I think that having a vehicle with vehicle to grid, or even just a high power 240v50amp connection is going to save the day for most folks. Say you have a scenario like James mentioned where it's hot and you're using a lot of AC but it's overcast and you're not able to generate power. The battery pack in a Model 3/Y could easily supplement your home system for a week. A larger truck battery could supplement you for a couple weeks, and you only really need that much supplementation for weeks on end in very rare edge cases. Now, instead of having to invest thousands more into additional panels or batteries, you just go charge up when you're getting groceries, pay like 30 bucks, and you've essentially got power insurance during the solar anomaly period. If I was able to tap into my Model Y during the low solar days of living at my bus, I could essentially be off grid indefinitely. Luckily, I had a shore power connection but it's been a really fun experiment to begin to understand all of this. Energy scarcity has been at the center of extremely destructive geo-politically struggles for some time now; I really look forward to a world where the only limit to what we can achieve is our ingenuity and creativity.
Awesome video keep it up!
I live 30 minutes out of Seattle and I still have a guy come by my house and check the meter every month lol
What the regulatory system was premised on was that certain utilities were "natural monopolies" which with high prices could be massively profitable. So, the intent of the regulations was to limit the profit, to have just enough rate of return (profit) that investors would invest. But, you are correct the utility has the incentive to inflate the rate base. Amory Lovins exploited this to create incentives for utilities to invest in customers energy efficiency (such as insulation or energy efficiency).
Yes, electricity will only become more expensive as demand increases exponentially. It is a for profit commodity after all in a market driven economy. How we produce the electricity will vary depending on country and geographical location.
Thanks
Mind. Blown. Master Plan 3 is worst case!? This conversation made my day.
One systemic challenge to getting wholehearted cooperation on the transition to sustainable energy are the utility companies that sell both electricity and natural gas! For example, how do we wean a utility like Pacific Gas and Electric, PGE, off Dino juice? Of course, we need to replace all the natural gas plants that generate electricity with solar, wind and battery storage. Part of the solution is demand destruction - encourage homeowners and landlords to replace natural gas appliances - gas furnace, stove, dryer, water heater and fireplace with efficient electrics - heat pump, induction cooktop, etc. For new construction, builders can save time and money by not installing a natural gas infrastructure. Legislators can help through getting regulations updated and offering tax incentives🥰
Great discussion.
Epic discussion!
Thing that gets me is I’m 70 and going to miss so much exiting stuff
Awesome Amit, your on your bro
1:18:59 one assertion in Oliver Stone documentary is that renewables coming online are not off-setting fossil fuels but just picking up the slack on new demand. Fossil fuel based electricity generation isn’t shrinking.
Great chat here. The battery in the EV changes the game and could cover those two weeks (5% of time) in the winter in midwest.
Mind blown🤯
What a dream lineup!
Not sure if common. In the part of NY I live in the utillities get power from suppliers. They just distribute power to end user. The utillity takes care of ditribution equipement.
woo! i feel like yoloing otm call options 2 years out
Interesting re your "difficult to locate pumped hydro storage". The 100 meter height between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with only about 20 km distance between them for many km on Niagra penninsula allows pumped hydro storage of 480 gwhr with only a 17" variation in lake levels. Would do renewables backup for entire east+central N. America, largest cost is the 45 big tunnels bored between Lakes Erie and Ontario.
This is a Great Discussion! Thanks Farzad!
I’m wondering why they aren’t mentioning the industrial needs for electricity over the transition? The utility companies will always be needed for industry and the percentage that home generation doesn’t provide-the March of 9’s.
Please add chapters 🤗
Matt‘s point about an AI that plans the grid on 1:24:30 is really interesting.
I think Tesla is doing that right now with their VPP systems in a smaller scale.
Imagine the whole network planned like it with some Megapack sights near cities to balance the load between the smaller VPP‘s overnight to be ready for the next day where the weather forecast and Tesla AI can predict nearly perfectly where the most production and usage is.
🤯
I need to make a video on that.
Only in German, I’m sad to say but maybe Matt could do one as well in English, I would love to see what an insider could imagine!
Favourite part (so far)
1:00:25
!!!!!
WOW!
What do you mean "we had guys walk to every house to read the meter only 10 years ago" - we still have that here, but it's only once or twice per year and many times they ask the customer to self-report and only come very occasionally to double-check.
Compute (Dojo) can scale power consumption to stabilize the grid. Compute speed will fluctuate a lot, but not a big impact to the final results if you are waiting days for results. Variable loads are an alternative sometimes to batteries for grid stabilization.
I think, even our minds, that can see things that others don't see yet are missing some possibilities in the scenario of customers disconnecting from the grid. I had thought of a couple. If you are disconnected from the grid you could:
-charge your EV at a public charger if your home battery charge is low or you know the weather will be unfavorable. (...and if we all believe FSD will become a reality, you would just take a robotaxi if you needed to travel during this "2%" time of year)
-on a similar vane, as V2G becomes more common, you could go and charge at a public charger and then refill your home batteries.
-will a service arise to compete with utilities where a truck with a big battery on the back comes by to top you up for that 2% of the year. It would be priced to be crazy expensive /kwh BUT would still be cheaper than being connected for the whole year.
-
Great discussion. Thanks Gentlemen. Thanks for the mental exercises.
I heard somebody argue that we already live in the age of abundance. Only things that are truly scarce cost a lot of money: land (because of location) and in extension housing, branded stuff, college tuition (a variant of brand). While the common necessities are relatively cheap (relative to income): food, electronics, energy. Products and services that require a lot of labor remain expensive (healthcare, construction to some extent).
But I hear you say "it doesn't feel like that - everything is so expensive". And that is right, too. I believe to some extent it is because we _desire_ those expensive things and to some other extent parts of the economy are hijacked (e.g. US healthcare, probably housing as well). We _desire_ to go to Ivy league colleges. We desire fashion etc.
In fact, a large part of creating a profitable business nowadays is to think about how you can make your products more desirable in the eye of the customer. That is what branding is all about and large parts of marketing. Ever heard of "demand generation"? Most businesses don't struggle to make stuff, they struggle to get customers in the door.
So in conclusion I think money will remain important to allocate those scarce products and services and even if we already have everything we need the next Steve Jobs is working hard on creating another thing that we didn't even know we needed but we desire it now that it exists. And if that new Steve Jobs is smart he will now we desire this thing and make the price high.
Could storage from your car help with the last 5% or the two weeks of the year when your solar can't cover it. You can also do other things to lower the demand side of the equation.