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Bryan Lawrence: How to beat the market using concentrated value investing
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2022
- Bryan Lawrence is the founder of Oakcliff Capital. His fund has outperformed the S&P500 since its inception on June 1, 2004. By December 31, 2021, Oakcliff Capital has returned 718% after fees, compared to the S&P500's 392% returns.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:50 Why are markets irrational
04:08 How to become like Warren Buffett, but faster?
07:25 People react poorly to volatility
12:41 Shelby Davis (from 200k $ to 800mil $ in 47 years)
13:57 Oakcliff's portfolio
14:38 Charter Communications (CHTR)
15:04 Carvana (CVNA)
16:02 Basic Fit (BFIT)
20:30 Mr. Market is crazy, but he provides oportunities
23:25 Q/A
24:04 Fund performance fees
25:10 In order to invest in a company we need at least a 25% IRR. Portfolio turnover
28:10 Is it possible to find opportunities still?
29:46 Interest rates and inflation
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This recording is from the Grant's Conference (Oct 19, 2021)
Loved this presentation: convincing, articulate and without hyperboles. Great content! I am less convinced about the methodology though, which is basically fundamental analysis to the core. I believe we live in policy-driven markets where the Fed and the Treasury matter more than the company's balance sheet unfortunately.
Great lecture, well done. $300m USD is a wonderfully sized pool of capital to manage. So much to choose from, and yes it's hard work to get there. I would respectfully suggest that there are a lot more investible opportunities in Asia starting today that can return mid teens with less risk of capital loss on a go forward basis.
He has a good voice
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying t0 grow my portfolio of $160K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategies, I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
The market is volatile at this time, hence I will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.
@@gabrielaevita6058 I just looked up Patricia Grace Ellis online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals..
Thank you.
I have a concentrated portfolio as well. Too many companies will always equal average or worse returns with active management. Fact is, the average investor is not privy to the info this guy has on a large scale.
My strategy is simple but takes effort and research. You can't depend on a funds history as a means to select an investment, particularly actively managed funds. Index will give you market returns if its a broad market fund not concentrated in "growth" or "value".
However, individual stocks can use their historical returns as part of making a good investment decision reducing volitility.
If you start with the top 10 companies in each sector and look as far back as 2000, look at their yearly returns particularly how they did during the tech bubble 00-02, housing crash 08 and Covid 22. Compare those years to the market return. During the entire 2000-2023, how many times were they in the red? How long did it take to recoup that loss? What is that company's average annualized return compared to the market in 2000-2023? How about a 10 year average? A 5 year average? Look at the best companies that aren't often in the red, don't have losses of more than 20% in a year and have 1-2 year turnarounds max.
While we may not be privileged to have some of the information that these big time investors have we can make educated guesses as to which companies are going to produce for us over the long haul especially during down markets.
One last thing, look at the financials. Assets to debt, current assets to current debt snd free cash flow. If those look good, its probably worth investing in those companies if their returns look favorable.
There aren't many companies who meet this criteria so it will take time to find them. In total I searched 500 companies this way. Started top 10 each sector. If I found nothing, I moved to 11-20 and so on until I found what I wanted.
I gotta say doubling down on Carvana one quarter to selling out completely is an interesting move.
dont let ego get in your way.
@@jonasscheuer7639 More like an acknowledgment he didn't do the work and have the right conviction in my view.
@@Monopolist91could have been other explanations. Better opportunity elsewhere, interest rate changes changed the business case (mentioned loan book), currency fluctuations
Thanks for the free presentation
I like this guy I have never heard of him but he is talking sense.If a person can internalize what he saying he will be successful just not right away.
By YouSum Live
00:00:19 Cab driver's risky investment strategy.
00:01:31 Markets' inherent irrationality and volatility.
00:02:15 Concentrated value investing challenges.
00:03:55 Impact of market volatility on investment returns.
00:10:36 Active vs. passive investment strategies.
00:11:10 Importance of concentrated value strategy.
00:13:59 Shelby Davis' successful investment approach.
00:15:53 Investing in undervalued companies for returns.
00:19:11 Managing client expectations during underperformance.
00:19:53 Psychology of money and long-term investment.
00:20:31 Embracing market volatility for profit.
00:21:33 Concerns about passive investing and robots.
00:22:09 Stock picker's responsibility in reducing client anxiety.
00:23:00 Balancing market opportunities with client well-being.
00:25:54 Evaluating investment decisions based on projected returns.
00:27:30 Client understanding and appreciation in a crisis.
00:27:45 Importance of understanding client anxiety and needs.
00:30:14 Considerations for potential market shifts and inflation impact.
By YouSum Live
Strange that we find volatility to be a problem rather than an opportunity, the owners of businesses that are not afloat on the stock market don't think of how much a portion of the business will sell for on any given day
Jim grant's question was pretty prescient. Well done Jim
Such a great talk.
Thank you!
What a voice 👏
still looking for the customer's yachts 👀
Och on Carvana example
Great presentation. But 5% qualifies as 'concentrated'? Hmm
He typically owns about 10 things, 11 when he recorded this, so he's more like 10% positions. If I understood him, the 5% is that he likes to own 5% of a company's outstanding shares. so with a few hundred million to play with, he's not buying a trillion dollar company like Apple. He goes for little things like Star Group, the firm owns 3% of the company, he personally owns 3% too I think, so he's a big deal for the company he invests in and gets to talk to the board n what not. But he really is very concentrated.
Bryan's mannerisms clone Buffett's mannerisms
So the stock market makes the world more volatile than without it?
Hmmm, maybe people should avoid the stock market and look at private investing...
Berkshire does not run a concentrated portfolio
Berkshire has 69% of its holdings in just 4 stocks. That's a concentrated portfolio. It does own various firms it took private such as Sees Candies and the Nebraska Furniture Mart though.
It absolutely does. Isn't something like 40% of their portfolio in a single holding, AAPL?