Retired General Breaks Down Four Ukrainian Counteroffensive Scenarios | WSJ
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 2 июл 2024
- Ukraine is on the brink of launching its counteroffensive against Russia. Russia now occupies 17% of Ukrainian territory, a stretch of landmass roughly equivalent to the size of Iceland with 900 miles of frontline. Ukrainian troops’ current offensives have been limited to the Donbas region.
WSJ spoke to retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, who breaks down four likely scenarios that the Ukrainian forces might attempt to kick off their counteroffensive.
0:00 The stakes for the counteroffensive
0:53 The current Russia-Ukraine War situation
4:09 Ukraine’s counteroffensive scenarios
6:42 Potential results from the counteroffensive
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
WSJ’s latest news coverage around the 2022-2023 Russia-Ukraine conflict.
#Ukraine #Russia #WSJ
The Wagner Group has become the face of the Russian assault in Ukraine.
Our documentary, Shadow Men: Inside Russia’s Secret War Company reveals how the Russian private military company hides the flow of riches and resources that ultimately connect to the Kremlin: ruclips.net/video/EMXnJMCoFYI/видео.html
Another military expert bites the dust.
where is this guy now? like to hear what he feels now. 😁
7:30 Those are some interesting logos on the Ukrainian tank.
Computer, enhance
the same logo used by an army starting with "W" in 1939-1945
Alright, now dig the ditch and face the wall.
Historically speaking I'll take the Nazis over the Russians
Nothing to see here folks, please disperse!
Very surprised that he lists the most likely scenario as an attack from Kherson to cut the land bridge. I would have thought it would be an attack from Zaporizhia to Melitopol.
Attacking from Kherson requires crossing the Dnipro, en masse, which is no easy feat. It would be a massive amphibious operation, which drastically increases the risks for Ukrainian forces.
The us has just shipped lots of bridging kits but you kind of need them no matter what rout you take because every bridge will be destroyed.
Any attack around Zaporizhia could bring about dire consequences from the power plant. That would not be my first choice.
they have crossed many time for shaping ops. Also the west have provided bridging equipment. Also the russian pulled back a bit from the rivers edge.
Ukraine is cannon fodder provider The Anglo-americans decided to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian.,Then u.s will s💩💩t out and flush!like they did with Poland in 1945🤣😂
@@matthewmuise5138 isolated raids and recon operations are different than trying to push and sustain multiple brigade sized units across a major river, entirely on pontoons and ferries. Very high risk of being cut off or inadequately supplied and bogged down.
The fact that there is so much chat about a counter offensive in the press suggests to me thay there isn't going to be a counter offensive for quite some time. I guess when the media spends a month saying "there won't be a counter offensive", is when there will suddenly be one.
Correct. It's like a pay per view fight pre fight advertisement. One side has a small chance but the hype make it seem more even.
Both great points
Exaclty. I hope that a cease fire and a peace deal came first.
@Guru Xara their was both and nato state leaders admitted that it was a pretense to build ukraines military.
@@guruxara7994 That can happen tomorrow if Russia agrees to go back to pre-Feb 22 borders, but somehow I doubt they will.....
An attack over the Dnipro from Kherson would be extremely challenging, this could be a possible secondary vector but very unlikely this will be the primary vector. River crossings add a huge level of difficulty to what is already a hard slog against defence in depth.
they have crossed many time for shaping ops. Also the west have provided bridging equipment. Also the russian pulled back a bit from the rivers edge.
Ukraine is cannon fodder provider The Anglo-americans decided to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian.,Then u.s will s💩💩t out and flush!like they did with Poland in 1945🤣😂
For that reason it would be a good idea
My thoughts exactly. Very surprised to see this guy listing that as his most likely course that the counteroffensive will take. It would be an extremely high risk operation and I doubt Ukraine could sustain it from a logistics POV as their main thrust.
I could see it happening as a secondary push, though, when Russian lines were already collapsing in the south (bit of an ideal scenario, though).
I got four scenarios: 1) Ukraine mollywhopped 2) Ukraine knocked out 3) Ukraine body slammed 4) Ukraine closed caskets. Wagner= The Ukraine killers. 😝😝😝😝😝😝
Oh, the size of Iceland? That's a relevant reference for most people...
😂. I’m glad I’m not the only one. Ahhh, of course. Ol’ Iceland
It's just one of the many highlights of how much of a heap of thrown together garbage this report is. 😅 They don't even put real effort into their propaganda. They know that people will believe whatever is shoveled their way.
Yeah I was laughing at the same thing. I suppose if Russia attacked Iceland they would have won the war then? Not sure what is the point of that reference.
No wonder the Afghanistan war was lost with such generals...
True. Specially when they don't paid to their PMCs.
Just look how they run from Afghanistan being chased by their mercs to the airfields. Of course the western media said that they were 'talibans forces with suicide tactics'.
2:27 The United States 🇺🇸 military was training the Ukrainian soldiers in 2008-2014.
These guy giving opinions are the ones who lost all their own conflicts.
..as we always have.
They never lost anything. In each case the objective was achieved.
@@barrybarnes96 What would that be?
@@barrybarnes96 If the objective was to senselessly destroy entire regions, and extract all wealth present, then yes it was achieved with flying colours.
😅 good point. The Pentagon leadership has been an utter failure, they have followed moronic civilian leadership orders without advising against or just quitting.
With what army?
thanks for showing the possible plans.
What I have learned from watching the videocasts of the Ukraine war for the last 450 days or so is how very, very difficult it is to fight a war in the first place. It looks like a constant battle to gain meters of ground and even when you do get territory, the other side can counter attack or use artillery or send missiles or drones. Drones have changed modern warfare forever. One sees that even retired General Kimmet outlines how hard it is going to be to route the Russians off of occupied Ukrainian land. 17% of Ukrainian territory is a lot of territory to take back and now we see how it is going to be some of the fiercest fighting of the war for the Ukrainian counter-offensive to make gains, but most painfully, it looks like there are battles ahead for a long, long time.
War is and has always been a balance between surprise and supplies. You can either surprise someone or outsupply them
@@majid7925 GGGGGGGGGGGreat to hear from you. Someone once said history is always on the side with the largest battalions and Alexander the Great shows us that luck plays a role as well.
That's the biggest obstacle in Ukraine's way... Russia are fighting a war of attrition i.e. trying to deplete manpower, vehicles etc and Ukraine are essentially trying to totally rid the country of Russian forces. But to do that, you expose everything you have.
Ukraine are losing manpower and aid, like no tomorrow and to replenish that, they either have to pause offensive capabilities or simply hide what they have (not always the case they are able to still attack and hold ground etc) but when they do choose to go on the offensive, it will be massive and require everything they have, but they will be exposed in a colossal way and I don't think the west especially are prepared for lies ahead.
Especially when Russia have proven that if things get too disadvantageous, they will retreat. Bakhmut was a disaster for Ukraine, and helped them gather resources, but now, they can't repeat the way Russia want them to wage war... so even if they do have a large offensive, will areas like the Donbas and Kreminna front, survive?
That's speculating that the goal is Crimea and sweeping east.
@@tekannon7803 and bad luck since he suddenly died
The amount of land Russia is sitting on only means more land for Russia to defend with largely unprepared, unmotivated, unfed, and unappreciated conscripts. I think routing is a highly probably outcome if Ukraine hits hard enough.
What great predictions 'general' with people like you leading our troops no wonder we keep losing 😂😅😂
$1 trillion is poured into the country every year. Are you okay with your head?
The Patriot Missile System lasted for 3 minutes after firing 32 blanks.Let's see how long the F16s will last🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I’d be extremely suprised if the Kerch bridge is one of the first attack points. I expect the Ukrainians to pinpoint the brigde with a large number of missiles to penetrate the russian defences. It will be vital to stop the russians logistics capability this way. I also expect that there will not be one single push through the russian front line, but many different, after each other, to confuse and deflect attention from a later, large attack. I don’t think there will just one big attack, which will be too easy to defend against.
I certainly would place a high priority on destroying that damned bridge.
War is and has always been a balance between surprise and supplies. You can either surprise someone or outsupply them
There's also the unquantifiable 20%. Sometimes the enemy is simply too stubborn to die and sometimes the great conqueror falls apart at a seemingly minor loss. The human element is important to consider as well.
In Ukraine we've seen only resilience and willpower from the defenders and that makes a daunting foe.
@@bartandaelus359 sure. but Ukraine was also meant to fell in three days or a week, not fighting a war almost on pair with the russian army. nobody could have seen it coming on february 24, 2022.
@@Maddog-xc2zv yeah actually it was already known and planned for since the fall of the crimea
Without a doubt. That's how America won the Vietnam War. Surprised them with Air Calvary and provided the G.I.s with an unlimited supply.
@@yzfool6639 US won the Vietnam war? Last time I checked they withdraw their forces due to internal pressures. If that counts as winning a war... not even a moral win, as the vietcongs quickly occupied all the suthern vietnamese territory. won...
if the counter-offensive has any success, we'll hear about it, if it fails miserably, we won't know, and they'll say it hasn't started yet.
Nope
@@user-xs4pw2bs1r yep
I'm embarrassed for you.
@@barrybarnes96 he is true here u emarrassed by ur ignorance lol , well I see bigbrother has brainwashed u fully
lol you are 100% correct.
What a weak breakdown. Would have loved to see him discuss the actual logistics. They have 12 western trained and equipped brigades. How many brigades to actually pull something like this off? What are the challenges of an amphibious assault? Also good luck trying to break through Donetsk. Mariupol and Bakhmut are cities that aren’t even close to the size of Donetsk. It’s the most fortified piece of the line. What a joke of a breakdown
I think it wrong to specify one area rather this counteroffensive will be over a broad front. 13 brigades as mechanized infantry has only a few viable routes that can take place. Kherson will be uniquely difficult as the Dnipro presents its own difficulties but could be a key shaping counter offensive where a more specialized unit to this terrain can keep Russia guessing and on their toes but will not be the main offensive. Looking at Zaporizhia area presents its own problems as the vast defensive net work built here by Russia is a difficult ask but can be done however at a large cost of human lives and machinery. One would think a pestering attack here as well to keep Russian forces pinned but not the main offensive. We are already seeing the offensives main objective in my mind taking place. Letting Russia take Bakhmut allows for their best fighting capability units to be exhausted and easily overrun with proper troop movement as we see now. Knocking out flanks in route to cutting off the Russians along this front can be a pivotal point in the counter offensive. If Ukraine can take Soledar then forcing Russia out of Bakhmut then can turn their eyes north to Severodonetsk and push from Lyman as well cutting Russian forces and supply routes forcing a withdrawal from the area by RU. Or turning south which is what I think is crucial in taking or cutting off Luhansk, Donetsk and then further south liberating Mariupol, Melitipol and so on to Crimea. Just remember 13 mechanized brigades is a lot of manpower to be used in one area alone. This will be a longer counteroffensive playing into the losses of Russian supply routes, forcing tactical withdrawals by RU and wearing down their morale over and over resulting in poor military capability by RU.
Mere speculation with no real norm to follow
Russia is probably expecting the main spearhead to approach from Kherson I think in anticipation of this they are fortifying position however I still think Ukrainians will is much stronger and they are able to punch thru, I feel that a counter offensive should come from 2 points to confuse them and instill fear of encirclement so from zaphorizia and Kherson would be my guess
You have been brainwashed by the media to think foolishness.
Madness !
excellent
The general’s first would be a disaster. It’s exactly where the Russians expect it and where they’re most well prepared. I think he must be out of touch.
At the height of Wirld War II, with 13 million men and women in uniform, there were 7 four generals. Now there are over forty. This is the pool these "former generals" are being drawn from.
But those "watered down" generals have the lessons of World War II and an understanding of modern weaponry and equipment. They might (should) all be at least as good as the best generals of previous eras.
@@tannerhuxtable6118 good luck with that.
@@michaellattimore876 no maybe you're right. Maybe those old generals were higher quality. And maybe we should still use muskets and ride horses into battle. 🤷♂️
Your point is well taken. Political generals with no real fighting experience advanced in their careers based their skill in navigating a bureaucracy -- not in winning wars.
@@steve.schatz Unfortunately this has bled into many other aspects of life.
My thing is why announce for weeks/months you are planning a counter offensive? …. Why not catch the enemy off guard? …. Someone help me understand
Hi WSJ. Would you publish the unedited interview with the Brig Gen? I'm more interested in his opinion than your reporters perspective (no offense). Thanks!
manpower? no problem, just wake them up on the next round of the shoot. - Hollywood
The usual tactic is to attack an enemy at the point that their logistics are most stretched and which your resupply is easiest. That tactic tends to emphasise Crimea and it would also allow Ukraine if successful, to control its exports by sea. Combined with the reputation blow to Russia the instability that would come about in the Kremlin would be a huge disadvantage to a regime that is increasingly fragile.
the problem is that Crimea , at least the Ru military component, could be resupplied by sea. Ukraine would have to hit such ships with rockets and as it stands, they don't have anything with the range to get to Sebastipol. Crimea would be the easiest bit territory to make life miserable in by reducing water supply , cutting off power inter connections to start with . This assumes you control territory adjacent to the Crimea which would be heavily defended. It is probably the lowest risk attack point for Ukr. The risk becomes even lower if Ukr gets long range GPS guided missiles as in 70Km Plus range. So far the US has refused to supply them.
At this stage I 'd suspect that the Ukr top military would prefer that the Ru make an all out attack to gain ground , as opposed to a city. That means that the western MBTanks and large numbers of GPS guided 155 mm rounds can be used to break the attack and grind down the attacking army. The fatality rate for helicopters in support of such a mission after a few sorties might be as high as Uboats in WWII, seventy five percent of which were lost. The Ukr now has Gebart , Stingers and UK Starstreak as well as limited numbers of Patriot missile batteries.
@@F_Tim1961 Russia can’t keep 2.5M people and it’s armed forces in Crimea supplied through hostile sea routes, they just don’t have the capacity for those sorts of tonnages.
@@seanlander9321 The sea routes are only hostile in the sense that the Ukr may still have missiles that can target ships from Ukr held territory. There is no known Ukr naval presence in the Black sea. Ru would supply the armed forces with food and essentials and ignore the locals if things got bitter. This is what happened in WWII and plenty of civilians starved . I don't think the mindset has changed. Would the Ru allow humanitarian food drops ? I doubt it. They have said in recent times that UN troops are legitimate targets, this would include aircrew or naval crews.
@Jewlensky Bot Putin is an idiot, but he’s not suicidal, so those rusty nukes aren’t of any use to anyone. If you recall, the moron said after he wouldn’t invade, that he wanted to free the Ukrainians, not obliterate them.
The problem is that Crimea is naturally well defended through its geography. Historically speaking it is nearly impossible to invade, especially only from 1 direction (north) without the access from the east in Russia. That option probably is the hardest to hit of them all.
Love these updates 👍🤟💥☕
*Simple fact, The ground is too muddy and Heavy Equipment can't move yet.*
Option #2 looks interesting. A mechanized force can move quickly there. But Option #1 if that is the only way to take out Kerch Straight Bridge. Either way, cutting off Crimea is every at least as good as getting close to the northern border.
1and 4 def. 2and 3 bot likely to direct and its right where bahkmut is most concentration of russians im thinking 1 and 4 but in a way i wont share as to not allow pregi g eues to get intel but i see it as getting closer. But this thing will sadly continue another year. Us involvement tho seems likely
Ukraine is cannon fodder provider The Anglo-americans decided to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian.,Then u.s will s💩💩t out and flush!like they did with Poland in 1945🤣😂
We the good people in the rest of the world need to fight the Russian Trolls with truth bombs. Thats our part of the war effort as individuals to help Ukraine
According to the latest news, there is a siege in Moscow and St. Petersburg.The invincible Ukrainian army reached Siberia and Kamchatka.URAAAAA!!!!!
@@mariaktos804 they prob will russia has lost this war. Also maria we know uouna russo bot but youn arent wrong russia is losing and will lose.
3 and 4 is a no, this is not about sending messages but accomplish tactical gains that they can build on and that is all about separating the Russian held territory in 2 and make the south untenable for the Russians, at least as far as to the Crimea. So it is 1 or 2. Or both, but one will be a feint. Or not.
Option #4 offers the shortest distance to Moscow and an open road along E101
🤔💭🗺 It's intriguing to see differing perspectives on the likely scenarios of a counteroffensive. While Sir Richard suggests an attack from Kherson, you raise a valid point regarding the challenges of crossing the Dnipro in large numbers. The choice of strategy and potential risks in military operations always sparks intense debate. Exploring alternative scenarios like the one you mentioned, from Zaporizhia to Melitopol, could provide valuable insights into different tactical approaches. Let's continue the discussion and delve deeper into the complexities of these possible counteroffensives. 🌍🔍🔬
How can you call it a stalemate when an offensive is coming? It don't make sense.
So the media has recently switched over from "Spring Offensive" they've used for the past six months, to "Counteroffensive"?? Makes sense; they've covered themselves in case it starts in Summer, Fall, Winter, 2024, 2124...
The storm is coming. Prepare yourself to cope
It’s not the media!
Or are you so dug down in your bunker of irrational fear! That you fail to understand that?
@@ceasar8679 you must have plenty of first hand experience of coping with the recent fall of bakhmut
I would attack when I have the F16s. Not earlier.
@@askeladd60 I dont know, since the Capture of Belgorod, no one talks about Bakhmut... ;)
..and no one notices the symbols on the Ukie tanks, or pretend not to.
Or, maybe they just aren't trying to hide it anymore.
What symbols? The white cross?
Peace talks. Pray for peace.
Monkey wrench.
What if Russia starts a massive offensive before Ukraine's counter offensive.
Russia still has an air force
The first victim in a war: the truth
I agree with this guy that the most likely route is Kherson due to the following reasons.
1 - The Russians wouldn't expect it.
2 - It has the least risk of getting encircled since one side is the Black Sea already.
3 - They will have the Kerch bridge well within destroying distance and will have the ability to cut off the millions of Crimeans.
4 - They have the equipment to do river crossing, and they already have reconnaissance units on the other side of Dniper.
1. russian expect this and that is why they build many strong defensive points.
2. you have enemies on both sides is actually considered an encircle.
3. so the objective is already evil, which is to cut off millions of Crimeanj? this will not prevail.
4. all Ukraine DRG (deep recon groups) on the other side is already dead! didn't you get the news?
It would also let Ukraine attack Zaporezhia from the north and west.
Aren't most Crimeans on Ukraine side? It's so hard to tell with the amount of war "fog" taking place
@@CornPopWazABadDude no
@@CornPopWazABadDude most people on Crimea are russian speakers
Seems they'll never run out of Desk Jocky Officers.
Hasn’t it arrived yet have been waiting for it for a long time now
My 2 cents as an armchair general: if I were Zaluzhny I would focus on sealing the Russian border to encircle existing Russian forces and prevent more from coming in. This means that Crimea is not really critical: Russians can reinforce it through the Kerch bridge, but when you check the north of Crimea it's full of marshes (Syvash), so it's easier to defend, harder to attack, but the Russians would also have a hard time mounting attacks from there, it's basically easier to cut off the mainland, both for the attacker and the defender. Ukrainians should focus on taking the Donbas through a two-prongs pincer movement, one from the north along the border towards Tchertkovo and then down towards Luhansk, and another one from the south, south of Donetsk towards the east-south-east and then up towards Luhansk as well. This would be the main theater of operations. Meanwhile, a third smaller force would be only tasked with blocking the Russians forces in Zaporizhia region from attacking the flank of the southern prong. Ideally, the Kerch bridge would also be destroyed at the same time, to make sure Russian forces in Zaporizhia and Crimea are contained and not reinforced for now. The destruction of the Kerch bridge, the Syvash natural barrier and the Azov sea provide a seal on this side. Once large Russian troops are encircled and the land border between Donbas and Russia is sealed, then it will be time for a new offensive to split Crimea and Zaporizhia region and encircle Russian troops there. Finally, Crimea can be retaken by force or more likely through negociation at that point. Of course nobody knows the plans of the Ukrainian general staff but this strategy would make sense I think. What are your thoughts?
Good Idea
It would be a good idea if they had American level of offensive capability, but they will realistically have only enough armor and mechanized forces for just one thrust. Doing what you suggest with the forces that Ukraine currently has, I don't think either pincher would get very far and both would be very vulnerable to being cutoff and encircled. The Donbas is historically a very tricky area for military offensives due to its geographic and urban terrain.
He is dead though. No word of him since the missile strikes from Russia about 2 weeks back
Zaluzhny is MIA. It is reported that they found his head after the mortar attack and are attempting to re-attach it to his neck...
@@quietus13 The Donbas has been figthing against Ukraine for nine years now and the Russians have considerably more military industrial copacity than Nato as well as more advanced weapon systems.
I have always said that the route that makes the most sense and results in the greatest amount of strategic gains is from Zaporhirhia down to Berdyanks on the Azov Sea, with vectors of attack splitting ,one to the east of Tokmak and one to the west
This frontline is the most fortified by Orcs. Most likely, underrated approach, which also was mentioned by the general, is Donetsk city to Mariupol axis.
The route that makes the most sense is straight to Moscow then across Siberia all the way to Vladivostok.
It's a 10 day special military operation.
I think they should just go westwards and conquer all of Europe...no one will expect that.
@@cobrachannel100 _Most likely, underrated approach, which also was mentioned by the general, is Donetsk city to Mariupol axis.”_
Donetsk city along with neighbouring Makiivka (combined population ~1.5 million) would be a long drawn-out quagmire, for the Ukrainians, just as Bakhmut was for the Russians. There's no advantage trying to take such a large metropolitan area and then striking south to Mariupol. Donetsk is well fortified-it's virtually been on the frontline since 2014.
The shortest rout to the Azov Sea is Zaporizhia (Kam'yans'ke) ⇾ Melitopol' ⇾ Azov Sea, cutting off Crimea from the Donbass while simultaneously destroying the Kerch Strait Bridge with a multiple _Storm Shadow_ strike. Half the counter-offensive force could then turn north up the Azov coast to Berdyans'k (holding a line between Berdyans'k and Orikhiv) while the other half turns south and clears the left bank of Kherson and Crimea. Once Kherson/Crimea have been secured, leave a guard force in Crimea and have the rest of the forces re-join the main body north to push on the Donbass (say during a '24 offensive).
Keeping the Russians at bay in the Donbass while retaking Crimea and Kherson this year, would be a huge victory for Ukraine. It also gives the FRL/RVC the opportunity to broaden their insurgency operations within Russia, drawing Russian military resources away from Ukraine.
@@MelioraCogito I didnt suggest they approach Donetsk city head on. They would never do it. I meant in general direction of Donetsk city going south. In short, bypassing the city but in that direction somewhere. I guess, looking at the map, it could be somewhere in the vicinity of Vuhledar that they could originate their drive south towards Mariupol.
Saying that option 3 to Mariupol does not cut the land bridge is bizarre. It doesn't matter if there are Russians in Melitopol connected to Crimea, the point is that none of them can be supplied overland by Russia. In fact, the more Russians you trap (you have to cut the Kerch bridge) the faster they run out of food and ammo. Lack of supply is why the Russians vacated Kherson without a fight. Attacking anywhere from Zaphorizia to Donetsk works as long as you make it to the Sea of Azov, and can hold it.
7:32 Look at that cross
Now I know why the general is retired 😊
Probably for the disasters of the Iraq war/occupation, ordering bombings on civilians infrastructure just like the "mukaradeeb weeding party massacre", torture of Iraqi prisioners and civilians.
You saw HistoryLegends group call too? xD
@@pekka1900
No, but appreciate for inviting me to see them!
@@HailuAT-pr7dg I have to correct myself. It was actually said by WeebUnion in a one on one talk with HistoryLegends, that he had to delete, because of WSJ.
Unfortunately the analysis of this video by history legend and weeb union was taken down, that video was very good in counter argument most of the things this general says...
History Legend is great to watch and learn.
I say let option 3 be a feint while applying the full thrust at the Kherson axis ... sort of like Dieppe and Normandy
I thought they started the counter offensive last week and/or last month.....and the month before?
I still think they should do the counteroffensive next year. Not enough tanks, other armoured vehicles and antiaircraft weapons. Just not enough.
Yup. A few dozen mbts. 50 Bradley's and then some European IVFs. Is really quite a pathetic amount.
Can't let the Russians keep building defences for that long.
4 pipe dreams
Porque no los cuatros?
peace
What counteroffensive ? Meat grinder worked a treat
There are no good options for attack. But you are ordered to attack, or you will lose Western support What to do?
Ya just saw the counteroffensive near where they got man handled xD
The first two seems likely cause they're easier to understand 🤔
If they cut the land bridge and then expand the corridor while using Storm Shadow to knock out the Kerch Bridge it would leave the Russians with 2 choices, starve or surrender. Slava Ukraine!
Exactly, cut those supply lines! Prime example= See Stalingrad Pocket that is what Russians did to Gen Paulus and his 6th Army. Ukraine will use same tactic.
Option one could deny ports for the Black Sea fleet. With there long range missles
Ukraine is cannon fodder provider The Anglo-americans decided to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian.,Then u.s will s💩💩t out and flush!like they did with Poland in 1945🤣😂
lol
@@johnwhitehurst474 The germans supplied their bridgehead in the caucasus without a bridge and despite a soviet navy in 1943
Attacking from Kherson makes very little sense as the Dnipro is too great an obstacle. It can only act as a supplementary vector of attack.
How about all of the above? 🤔
3:35 "battle tanks" - shows a SPG.
With option #1, Ukraine can also once again cut off the flow of fresh water into the Crimea region. This will destroy Russia's attempts to farm it and limit the number of people/soldiers who can remain there. Russia couldn't easily resupply the Crimea area so there wouldn't be a push of Russian forces from there. If they did, that would be stupid. So it should create a somewhat stable southern flank for their operation.
With the other attacks, Ukraine forces could be in danger of encirclement by greater numbers unless they push in a large front like last year's northern operation. If Ukraine has the forces available, I would probe on two of those avenues and capitalize on whatever was proving to be the most successful. So that the second probing action could somewhat assist the first.
This also has the outside chance of collapsing the entire Russian invasion force into a general route. Slim chance, yes, but Russian ammo and equipment are near a breaking point and the morale of their forces is also quite low. The 2022 Spring conscripts time of service is currently ending and that is completed by mid-July. So somewhat veterans on the line are being replaced by green troops. Russia is poor at training and poor at passing on learned experience so now between mid-July is the best time to assault.
That would starve out Ukrainian civilians inside the island first because the Russian controlled government would prioritize food supply to their soliders.
It's the Ukrainian Army that's composed of green in many cases rather unwilling conscripts. The pre war army is completely destroyedp😊
Ah depriving civilians of water, very Western and Democratic (tm), goes hand in hand with bombing Donetsk for 7 years which in large part provoked the Russian intervention.
That is a crime against the human rights.
According to the latest news, there is a siege in Moscow and St. Petersburg.The invincible Ukrainian army reached Siberia and Kamchatka.URAAAAA!!!!!
One scenario is missing, if exclude continuation of the present deadlock as a scenario.
It is the scenario that Ukraine crosses the border with Russia to occupy a part of Russia. Strategic aims: bring the war to Russia; Create a negotiation position; disturb the Russian supply lines. It is known that Ukranian army has thought about it and to some extent thinks it is a feasible option. Biggest drawback would be it risks losing its western support.
That would be such a dumb move.
It would make it a regular war,
Two countries fighting eachother for territory.
Sancions on Russia would make no sense anymore. Why sanction One and not the other?
And military support would dwingle.
Poland, UK and US would keep their help but other countries probably would cease their donations.
Putin's use of the term "Special operation" is not just a matter of propaganda but also serves a legal purpose. Given that Russia has not declared war on Ukraine, if Ukraine were to openly invade Russian territory, Putin would have both the pretext and crucially, the approval of the population, to declare a legal war and utilize all means available for a full-scale conflict.
@@tiagogomes3807 "Sancions on Russia would make no sense anymore."
They would, Russia is still the same country with the same politics.
"Why sanction One and not the other?"
Same as previous reply with the addition that Russia started this war, payback time.
@@edgarmondragon4708 Well, maybe it's not Ukraine attacking but 'a bunch of yellow men' from regions within Russia that want to fight against Russia.
they already did in belgorod just yesterday. and it failed miserably. now the media is branding them as "anti kremlin group" despite the fact they are using tanks and donated IFVs as well as humvees.
Good Report
Definitely not. Ridiculously overoptimistic.
Very interesting, but I kinda wonder if we shouldn't be talking about this stuff publicly just yet?
Let's post our strategy on RUclips
WHAT A FREAKING AWESOME IDEA!
Maybe they play 5D chess?
Regardless of the options, they are eating into their time for the attack. While I understand their need to conserve their forces, there comes a time when you have to commit with the army you have, not the army you want to have.
It's very much an open question whether time is on Russia's side or Ukraine's side. Russia is losing armored vehicles much faster than it could possibly hope to replace them, while Ukraine's western kit keeps growing, with serious talk now of having an F-16 fleet that could be much larger than expected (over 50 jets). Meanwhile, Russia's internal strife has grown markedly, even if you ignore Belgorod--just looking at Wagner vs. army stuff.
I'm not saying it's definitely a great idea for Ukraine to wait. I'd like to see them break the land bridge within the next couple of months. I am concerned about the political situation in America; things shouldn't be as shaky as they are. But given the above, I still think it's understandable and defensible idea for Ukraine to wait and play the long game.
@@vigilante8374 So far America has trained only two Ukr pilots to see how long it takes to convert them over to F16s if they are already very good MIG pilots. The answer is about 4 months. Then the aircraft have to be supplied once the training is done. That's not to say that some other countries in Nato might not be providing training. This airforce is unlikely to happen any time soon. Without an airforce , it is difficult to provide the air cover required by a tank assault, specifically to knock down SU 25 jets which are a Ru poor equivalent to the A10. The DU shells from the 30mm cannon of the SU25 can penetrate most western tank cupolas if it they are attacked from above.
It is true that many Ru tanks and APCs are being destroyed or damaged and left to rust by the survivors. As for replacement time - does anyone really know ? There's also the issue of what hard funds are available to the RU tank factories.
Ukr may be delaying a counter offensive because it knows the huge risk of the flanks being taken, given the size of the forces available to Ukraine. That would be a disaster large enough to cause the collapse of serious resistance in the Ukraine against a further Ru offensive.
Your army now comprises a bunch of force-recruited civilians, highly corrupt officers and generals, not working Western weapons, and acute fuel and food shortages. this is why Zelensky knows his offensive will be lost even before it started.
@@tommytomas-fr3sh Интересный вопрос: вы верите, что говорите ... или вы полезный идиот? Our not working western weapons shot down 6 "unstoppable" hypersonic missiles, with the one of the trucks basically getting a flat tire (but the battery remaining operational.) Stormshadow is currently blowing up every weapons cache in temporarily occupied Ukraine.
Are you ready for the breakup of the Russian Federation? It's coming, Ivan. It's coming sooner than you think.
They should just quit. If they were to quit as of April of last year all they would have had to do was to ratify the Minsk accords from '15. With these coninuations they are likely to lose access to the Black Sea through Odesa...
I really hope they focus on 1 area attack, not all 4.
Think the good old one two punch is going to happen. Hit then some were they have to react. Then go for your true goal.
Ukraine's own March to the Sea will be one to remembered for the ages, just like Sherman's.
בעזרת השם
It will but I'm sure not for the reasons you think, the invasion is dead on arrival; they might as well rename in the red sea after the worst is through.
ya like acall of duty game u forget this reality
This is the first counteroffensive in the world's history which is no secret 😂😂😂
Let's admit Ukraine has won social media
@@shubhamkumar-nw1ui Ukrops have entire Western propaganda media, social media bots and clown liberals behind them.
Dual thrust
If this is a scenario breakdown, then it is a shallow one
There is too much mud in the spring, too much dust in the summer, too many leaves in the fall, too much snow in the winter, but yes, the "spring offensive" will start any day now.
Maybe these plans of the General are the same the Americans used in Afghanistan 😂😂😂
most likely than not, and look how that turned out
Comparisons of Afghanistan to any other place are idle.
Afganistan didnt have any conventional front lines. US won militarily every single battle in Afganistan, Iraq, and Vietnam. The reason for failures were political. Like not getting support from the local population, propping up wrong leaders, etc. Afganistan, it is just a tribal "country" which is impossible to unify. The success examples would be S Korea, Japan, Germany. That is because people actually embraced the reforms, elections, etc.
the attack plans he shows are completely idiotic as the Ukrainian troops would then still be surrounded from left and right (and they also only have of a symbolic meaning and no military advantage) 😂
Better than the Russian plan in Afghanistan though. Losers.
Been hearing about this "coutneroffensive" for nearly a year now, and it never seems to happen.
I guess eventually they will be right..?
ah, the permanently postponed "spring counteroffensive" that offends you and me
The levels of delusion and fantasy is incredible.
Really? You are still saying that after Russia lost Kiev, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson? Is it really such a stretch they will lose a lot more. Especially after receiving modern western weapons.... I think you are delusional.
@@wyringen Russia didn't have Kiev, Sumy and Kharkiv to lost it.
⬆️Russian bot
@@XxBloggs yeah right bots are everywhere... paranoic freak
@@namelastname9790 My point exactly.
Served in Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq :D this man is a war criminal.
Option 4 seems the most likely option. Though that would be the second attack. The first attack I am not sure where it is going to come from. Somewhere the Russians least suspect. So perhaps actual Russian territory near where the Luhansk operation would start. Draw forces away and then push through.
According to the latest news, there is a siege in Moscow and St. Petersburg.The invincible Ukrainian army reached Siberia and Kamchatka.URAAAAA!!!!!
Most likely option? To attack through the most densely urbanized region? That doesn't make any sense for Ukraine. I think I understand now why this general is retired..
4:10 The front line is not the equivalent of New Orleans to Chicago. More like New Orleans to Memphis
Honestly my biggest shock in all of this is that Iceland is WAY bigger than I thought it was.
That’s also kind of hilarious though, through a year and a half of brutal combat Russia has only taken 1 Iceland worth of territory. The nation that thinks it can match up to NATO…
My god -- Where did you get the stupid idea that taking territory is the objective of the SMO?
So for decades Western military leaders have been completely wrong about Russia’s offensive capacity. Why is anyone listening to them now?
It has nothing to do with the nation.
@@HegelsOwl Where did you get the cringingly stupid idea that taking territory isn't at the very least an essential part of the objective?
Pretty much to be expected from someone whose screen name tries to borrow the dignity of a goddess of wisdom.🙄
@dixonpinfold2582 On your idiotic, third-grader character attack, Mr. Logician, Google, "Ad Hominem Fallacy."
You need merely to state what the objective of the SMO is, using a proper source, not charlatan bluster about an "essential part."
Try again, sir, or your stupid belief may be written-off as laughably irrational. Correct? Your fallacies already mark you as irrational.
Love these fiction uploads from WSJ
Gotta be exceptionally dumb to think anything about the most documented war, maybe even most documented event, in all of human history is "fiction" lol.
@@shoeby9273 Oh I don't think the conflict is fiction. The possibility of a Ukrainian counter-offensive however.
@@anonymous-rj6ok Russia has been losing more square kilometers than they can gain every week since they pulled out of Kyiv. You can keep coping all you want.
I also don't believe in a grand counter offensive, maybe smaller opportunistic ones. Ukraine wins by Russia's army collapsing from under itself, which is on the way.
@@shoeby9273 This isn't about square kilometers gained/lost. This is a war of attrition. And if you believe the casualty numbers the West and Ukraine have been publishing then I guess you love fiction just as much as I do.
He almost had it imo ; its Vuhledar -> Mariupol AND Zaporizhzhia -> Berdyansk ; Any salient cant be too thin so both direct highways and all the fields around between need to be under control
Запорижжя - звучит, как визжащая укросвинья во время кастрации 😂
Options 2/4 are most doable imo
Wait.. Poor performance and holding 17% of land..? hmmm
Yes, incredibly poor performance for such a "professional" military. Also, they've been losing more than Ukraine is liberating ever since they failed to storm Kyiv.
Russia is the supposed 2nd most powerful army in the world, and this has been a disaster for them.
@@shoeby9273 So give me an example of a good performance.. because most wars and conflicts the US is involved, a even bigger superpower and they go to war against poor middle eastern countries and still lose.. So, I'm a little confused by your analysis
@@carlorossi9261 Look at the first gulf war or the American invasion of Iraq. Can you honestly say that Russia would be able to take on NATO when they cant even defeat Ukraine?
@@hazalnut8647 The gulf war was the only war that would be considered a "win" for the US. Why would you even use Iraq as an example, that was a pure atrocity. The war in Iraq started by US resulted in the deaths of over 1 million innocent civilians. In the first 2 months of the Iraq war over 7 thousand civilians were killed, Russia invaded Ukraine over 8 thousand civilians have been killed in a year, a very big difference.. Then westerners quickly label Russia as terrorists... Western hypocrisy at it's finest
It's pretty obvious that the first goal needs to be to cut the Russian supply train going down to the South. That's a lot of battle line to choose from. It looks to me like the Russians are going to hit around Sumy when Ukraine starts moving a lot of troops into the South.
With what army? They cant even stop 80 men on a road trip into Belgorod. Stop it.
It would seem that opening the Zaphorizhia route first would be best. Once Russia relocates it's armour and artillery, the river at Kherson is able to be safely crossed. If they get to the sea on both fronts, Crimea is cut-off and Zaphorizhia is in a pocket. If they only achieve success on one front, it is still a good result.
Of course Russia have already thought of every scenario. Dont be naive or let the media fool you.
“Brutal tactics”… like in war?
I don't think a counteroffensive towards the east, close to the Russian border, toward the Donbass, would be the best option, even though Ukrainians reach the sea of Azov (hypotheses 2, 3 and 4). Over all of its territory, these parts, however Ukrainian, are relatively the most pro-russian. Back in 2014, Donbass made secession from Ukraine, highly supported by the Kremlin but also by a slight mood in population.
At first, the biggest effect of a potential reconquista would on the most pro-Ukrainian lands, near Kherson and above the Crimean peninsula (1st hypothesis in the video). Behind the military aspect, such success would have a much better consensual impact than going straight forwardly on the Donbass troubled waters.
If Kiiv makes Donbass its priority, it may add an unnecessary oil on the fire, causing future domestic problems for sure. It could mean for later for the Donbass Ukrainian population that the national central state isn't up to negotiate with the mix-feelings region and would not hesitate to bring the army to break up any contestation.
That's why I would definitely support the 1st hypothesis
The Kiev regime imposed a brutal dictatorship and has been ethnically cleansing russian minority. It's obvious that these populations don't want to go back to neonazi rule. That's why there's so many people's militia fighting the Kiev regime in the Donbass region
Option 1 is the worst option. its like choosing to go through Maginot rather going around it. Ukrainians need to cross Dnipro to make it happen. that is a huge logistical nightmare they would have to subject themselves to. 2 is clearly the best option here. Cut the land bridge with counteroffensive and starve Crimea over winter.
As for all of the so called support they say they have in those regions.
It’s not statistically possible for them to have that much support!
So as for everything Russia says and has said the last 20 years.
Is probably false, or extremely exaggerated! Like their military powers!
The first hypothesis has all to become a slaughter house for ukrainian troops!
The 2nd route towards Berdyansk seems a much more logical move to make.
@@xSandamx 2 is the worst option.
That is exactly where Russia has put most of its defenses and trenches.
Ukraine needs to recapture some of the coastline of the Sea of Azov. Cutting Russia's movement of troops and supplies between Crimea and Rostov would be a huge strategic win. However, if Ukraine recaptures any stretch of coastline between Melitopol and Mariupol, they'll be in a strong position to wreak havoc on remaining Russian supply lines, troop concentrations, and equipment depots between Crimea and Rostov. Furthermore, once Ukraine recaptures Berdyansk, they'll have a clear path to fire rockets, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones at the Kerch bridge to sever Russia's military supplies to Crimea.
I don't think Ukraine will be able to win this war by driving tank brigades directly through Tokmak down to Sevastopol. However, once Ukraine can retake the Sea of Azov and get its longest-range munitions within firing range of remaining supply lines to Crimea, it is possible that there could be a collapse in the organization and leadership of Russia's army, which could then cause a bigger political crisis within Russia. This could create a feedback loop and expose weaknesses in Russia's military forces in and around Crimea, and Ukraine could start to exploit this by sinking Russian ships with anti-ship missiles and naval drones, bombing Russian military barracks, shooting down Russian military aircraft, etc etc. At some point, occupying Crimea could become untenable for Russia.
All of this first depends on Ukraine's abilty to punch through Russian defense lines. Before they do that, Ukrainians should be patient and continue to use drones, HIMARS, artillery and other medium-range weapons to identify and destroy Russian artillery, tanks, radars, ammunition storage, electronic warfare equipment, and other significant equipment that plays a key role in Russia's defensive positions.
- I have caught a bear.
- Nice, come here
- I can't
- Why
- Bear holds me...
@TsarinaPootina Ukraine lowering military age to 16 year
Very detailed analysis of this wishful thought of yours. Please tell me more about how Ukraine has a chance.
Lol, why would I be coping when the evidence is clear as day. You should go find a cave and hibernate till its all over.
Yes in your scenario Russia does nothing, and Ukraine is invincible. You are dreaming.
This war was produced and directed in Washington
I do not want to pay to rebuild Ukraine. The spending will never end.
And with the begger begging!!!!
Russia will pay 3T in reparations or forfeit st Petersburg
you won't have to, bro, Russia will be forced to pay for all the damage they have inflicted on their peaceful neighbour
OMG! 5 minutes before you get to the headline! We don"t need another summation of the entire war!
The public is beginning to tire of this kind of propaganda.
17% will be 5%