Tony Blair - Constraints on a PM, Lee Kuan Yew, Deep State, & AI's 1914 Moment
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- Опубликовано: 16 июл 2024
- Chatted with former Prime Minister Tony Blair about:
- What he tells the dozens of world leaders who come seek advice from him
- What he learned from Lee Kuan Yew
- Intelligence agencies track record on Iraq & Ukraine
- How much of a PM’s time is actually spent governing
- What will AI’s July 1914 moment look like from inside the cabinet
Enjoy!
Timestamps
00:00:00 - A prime minister’s constraints
00:04:10 - CEOs vs. politicians
00:10:30 - COVID, AI & how gov. deals with crisis
00:21:21 - Learning from Lee Kuan Yew
00:27:33 - Foreign policy & intelligence
00:31:07 - How much leadership actually matters
00:35:29 - Private vs. public tech
00:39:04 - Advising global leaders
00:46:36 - The unipolar moment in the 90s
Links
Transcript: www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/tony-...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1Cw5...
Me on Twitter: / dwarkesh_sp
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Another landmark for you Dwarkesh…. An interview with a politician who held the highest position in the government of a nation that is one of the six major economies and a permanent member of United Nations Security Council
TB is an all time low
he's a garbage human being
And a complete and utter ghoul.
@@alphasword5541idk I'd bang
Chill, He's retired. In western democratic states, readers are not that valuable to the party or the nation once they're out of power because the new trends and popular narrative of different leadership keeps arriving.
How did this even happen
Plenty of people are willing to condone atrocities for clout, and Blair wants his ass kissed
Asked the same question. Who arranged this? Te machine wants to get its tentacles into this space...
Why did you delete my comment? Why are you interviewing pure scum?
Shill
When someone seeking to remain Relevant or Seeking Validation… Take Your Pick 😂
Enjoy :)
Thank you ❤
why are you interviewing a war criminal?
You're mad to land this one
the heck bro
Disgusting. A war criminal. Iraq war - 000s dead.
One of the best interviews of Tony Blair. (And I’ve watched many over the last 27 years!)
Wow, did not expect this lol
The best looking podcaster in the game
It shouldn't be allowed. You can't be that handsome and also have all his other attributes. He probably has a dark secret or some sh*t. (One can hope.)
@@squamish4244 (One can cope.)
Yeah, Indians got nice beard game. But how he would look clean shaved? 😂
Surely better than your partner, respectfully @@aaradhyarawat7589
@@squamish4244
The last time I read similar comment was on Sendhil Ramamurthy !
Can't wait to listen - congrats Dwarkesh on an excellent podcast!
As a Nigerian critically believing for the best for my country
I enjoyed every bit of this podcast as LEADERSHIP is the key to a prosperous Nation!!!
Long live Lee Kwan Yu
Thanks for being PM Tony Blair to speak on governance too…
I wish world leading democracy could factor knowledge of governance as a critical for elected office!!!
💯. If Nigeria can get good governance and less corruption then it will rise up to be a new superpower.
It’s Lee Kuan Yew.
Lee Kuan Yew is dead
"When you are running for office, you have to be the great persuader. The moment you get into office, you really have to be the great chief executive.Those two skill sets are completely different."
He persuaded the rest of the world to invade and "liberate" Iraq.
On the false predicament of wmd's
For all this McKinsey management speak, the real source of inertia in Blair's government was the dysfunctional relationship he had with his Chancellor Gordon Brown, resulting in two power centres who were not always on the same page on very major issues over a period of ten years. Blair didn't resolve that, and the TB-GB struggles were far more decisive a factor than any supposed bureaucratic resistance.
🎯
Hmmm.. As far as I’ve read and heard, this came much later on in his 10 years.
@@williamphelps8550 It was always a present factor even in first term. The problem with a vague deal under which Blair would at some point hand over to Brown was the tension between Blair's legacy-shaping efforts and Brown's views about what he wanted his inheritance to be by the time he took over. By 2001 at the latest it was a full blown contest. Instances of dysfunction included the way in which Brown unilaterally vetoed -- via leaks to the press -- Blair's hopes for moving towards joining the Euro, and Blair going on TV without consultation to announce a massive hike in heath spending.
@@lucianopavarotti2843 I'm not sure Brown was wrong about not joining the Euro? As much as being in the EU is better on balance than being out, a common currency without a union as closely integrated as the US still seems like one of the worse aspects of it? Happy to be wrong, curious to hear other ideas. I am also, personally, not sure the "ever closer union" thing is a good idea in the case of Europe. Although a very close union is still clearly beneficial for both EU countries and the stability of the world.
@@lkyuvsad I wasn't making a point about policies as such just the dysfunctional way in which they came about. I agree that Euro membership was probably undesirable given the UK's different economic structure and business cycle, and I too think Eu membership was a good deal for the UK.
LKY WAS a startup founder. He essentially built Singapore ruling like a technocrat
TB also operates as a technocrat.
He puts spanners in cogs of the gov bureaucratic machine so it's stuck, and then he brings in commercial/financial operators to actually get the job done.
I wish you interview India P.M.🎉
How?! Yooooooo good stuff my dude😂. Mad respect(I caught onto your channel from the Sarah Paine interview). Keep em coming.
Really excellent interview, I think one of your best! Loved how big picture and broad ranging the topics were, then how you and Blair tried to drill to the crux on each of them.
I love the diversity of portfolios your interviewees hold. You're not only focused on tech/AI, but also politics and management. You're my favourite podcaster!
yeah... that's ok for bots, not for real humans. The guy is a hand puppet with someone's hand up his a*s. Doesn't need his brains anymore, he has YT to pay for his mouth opening.
Unsubscribe is my vote
This is top notch journalism! Great work
Wow! this is awesome, Dwarkesh. Thank you, keep it up man
What an insightful interview. Really good questions. Thank you for sharing this.
The Good Friday Agreement is Blair’s best achievement.
Yep and the Ksovo conflict was a good intervention too. Prevented the genocide getting worse, saved many lives and prevented further expulsions from Kosovo. People still focus on the Iraq war
@@JackWilliamson-qv4no were you there? Tell us more. How was it?
@@joestojanovic6613 found the serb
@@JackWilliamson-qv4nocause it was a seismic event and overshadows everything Blair had done in the past
Good to see how awesome your guests are getting!
Your attire of choice is commendable and I am sure that the interviewee appreciated it.
Concern about "saying" and not "doing" is a great way to summarize what's wrong with politics right now
I've never heard of AI framed as a July 1914 moment before, but it's a striking comparison. Everything happened very quickly and every single important decision-maker dropped the ball. If AI has a sharp takeoff, this is exactly the scenario we need to be worried about.
The good news about such a comparison is that only one of those decision-makers needed to have a moment of sanity and the war would have been much smaller and far less destructive, or even averted entirely.
Don't worry A.I is the just the 4th such takeoff in past 35 years.
@@Tuathadana Nothing comparable has ever happened before. Not even splitting the atom is comparable to AI.
@squamish4244 just adapt bro. It'll be okay
@@Tuathadana Hey, why do you think I'm here? Funny thing is how many people have no idea this is coming on so fast. But neither did I, until the last three or four years I knew it was coming but I still thought something like today was still like 20 years out. It is not.
I really enjoyed this podcast, what an interesting interview....
This was brilliant
Insane pull. Nice work.
You cannot beat QUALITY
How you got him for the pod
Great video. More political, or should I say policy talk, please
We need to focus on the SUBJECT rather than WHO…… I think Dwarkesh is trying to explore how Governments & Politicians can play Positive Roles in forming policies that can help mankind and the environment we live in
Dwarkesh, what the f*ck kind of network do you have??? It's amazing and I love that you're sharing it with us ❤
QUALITY beats quantity, hands. down
You’re a blessing to many silent people Dwarkesh - really appreciate your work; thank you.
You are such a great interviewer. I normally don't watch interviews with politicians, but fair enough. I really enjoyed your interview with Sarah Paine, you really should get Peter Zeihan and Stephen Kotkin on next.
Dwarkesh your interview skills are more important in foreign policy/politics/world affairs, than in AI. Keep doing more of this.
So true
Strong disagree. It's good to see politicians' perspectives occasionally, but we need to know what's going on with AI so we can anticipate the massive changes that are coming. Dwarkesh is currently the best interviewer for shining a light on the industry.
@@chadwick3593 What about Lex Fridman? Lex is naive about people but he knows his sh*t about AI.
@@squamish4244 Lex's interviews are a lot less AI-oriented now, and his interview style does a lot less to explain the industry. Lex is more focused on shining a light on individuals. Dwarkesh also seems to think faster on his feet, which lets his guests get into much more candid discussions than Lex. I feel like Lex sacrificed AI communication in exchange for more political discussions. As someone that thinks AI is the single most important thing going on in the world today, I feel like his podcast is far less useful as a result.
I don't mind a few political interviews, but AI is probably going to change the world more than day to day politics.
crazy to think he is out of power nearly 20 years and miles ahead of most US politicians in cognitive ability
Oh please, Henry Kissinger is 99 year old and he's still miles ahead of Blair.
@@randomuser5237 Operative word being 'most', not 'all'. And Kissinger died six months ago. I suspect his cognitive abilities aren't so hot now.
Why did you interview this man? Did they pay you? Why the political turn instead of a technical interview? I don't understand.
I think he advices political leaders worldwide and probably is using this podcast for soft marketing. (Checkout @8:30)
Dwarkesh should check who brought this guy to him. So close, yet he didn't use handcuffs...
The rare gift of any leader is knowing when to leave the arena of leadership. It’s not a waste of accumulated experience and a trusted network, but a courage to leave it to the next generation.
Really great interview. Blair is a hell of a get, too. Congrats.
Woah Dwarkesh summoned the Blair creature
Congrats Dwarkesh, quite the scoop! 👏👏👏👏
How on Earth did you land this 😵💫
From Dominic Cummings to Tony Blair - Dwarkesh doing this thing! Can't wait to listen to this one.
I have to respect him for still going and being so active yet he was controlled in government by far more powerful forces.
Whatever his flaws, Blair is a highly intelligent, articulate and thoughtful person. Not surprising he was PM of the UK for almost ten years. He had both the political skills and the executive skills. Where is the person in the UK who can handle today’s challenges? Neither Sunak nor Starmer.
Nigel Farage
@@johnroche312 Considering he's tried about 7 times to be an MP, it seems unlikely that he could ever be PM if he can't even be an MP
@@johnroche312 Farage is an idiot, and the only reason he's banging the anti-Ukraine drum like Trump is because they can make a lot of money from withdrawing aid and support.
@@haztec. Mate his party is beating the Tories as the opposition this election, while youre right about his past shortcomings I wouldn't be surprised if there is a great opening for reform and Nigel's future success.
@@johnroche312 we'll see on July 4th I guess
31:56 tony puts a lot on good leadership - he would, its his budiness. But bad ideas can often be taken up by teriffic leaders with terrible results.
If some of those Singapore decisions had been frankly poor - then no amount of great "leadership" would have achieved the results singspore has had.
Many of the ptoblems the uk has in public services and planning, lack of housing and wildly uncontrolled immigration - are frankly not going to be solved by "generative AI"
It's implied that part of good leadership is making correct decisions, no?
Tony Blair was PM of Britain.Great interview!
Mr. Blair is totally right in identifying the three key elements of Singapore's success with LKY.
There is a fourth element which is more important and it ensured Singapore's continuity in maintaining their success.
That is, LKY's doctrine of meritocracy, and a nation built on justice and equality regardless of race, language or religion.
Once you mix religion with government or a government based on religion (theocracy), then you will have trouble with success.
Once you mix race, language and religion under the guise of multiculturism and diversity, you will have disunity.
How are you getting these guests!
Dwarka must have some deepstate connections, or be selected by them, for him to be getting these sorts of guests
Wish you had more concrete examples to ask on covid e.g. if you wanted to rollout the pfizer vaccine in May 2020, was that possible? What would it have taken?
They had the vaccine by then but the problem was producing them and that you still had to go through the formal 3 stage trials. They did this concurrently to speed up the process.
We could've had it out quicker if it had been taken more serious a month prior. The WHO took forever to declare it a pandemic.
Drinking game: every time Dwarkesh says Fundamentally we drink.
Dwarkesh may well get an offer from a major news network.
This platform is a lot bigger than most major news networks
Being the head of government in America has no equivalence to being the head of government in the UK. I think this is something UK citizens really don't have a handle on. Tony made some mistakes in some ways but he was very aware of how American power shapes Europe. Is another world. Europe could break tomorrow and yes that means you in the UK but also America could break tomorrow.. Western democracy is broken and fractured. This is power to people who don't share our values.. The future is uncertain.. if Europe can't focus on what it has in common, it's doomed. This is true for America states too.
Dwarkesh speedrunning podcasting
Britain is a study in train-wreck today. Old people voting can be disastrous
I still remember as a kid from India his famous statement before Iraq War - We still don't know what he has 😂
How do you get all of these A list guests?
Damn, i remember him in the early days. Dwarkesh moving like a G
what happened to the lunar society
I get such a sense of transactional thinking from Tony - I guess politics is currently very much zero sum, competition of ideas and negotiation for personal success. All very ego based.
The business of government.
I've just watched a very recent interview with Dario Amodei who gave me much more hope for leadership with good core values, humility and vision.
You got selected bro
🎯
Do Blinken next!
Great interview! Well done for getting this intellectual giant on your podcast!
Commendable that someone his age is paying attention to AI. He’s very practical and bright. He may have been caught up in a portentous over reach, but wisdom comes from rear view mirrors.
Now you might be able to get Caro on !
Come on! Dwarkesh must be actually just be chatting with an AI simulation of Tony :D
Easily done because TB spouts the same garbage everywhere
Beast!
This man loves the word fundamentally
You have to get any former U.S. President now. If you can pull this off you can get anyone on here
All the problems the UK is facing right now is mainly because of Tony Bliar
"For the developing world, the lockdowns did more harm than good". - Tony Blair. Definitely true in Thailand and The Philippines, but I don't see anything good from lockdowns in rich countries when their huge debts from lockdown and furlough now need to be paid back with interest. Only Sweden was run by a scientist.
Incredible, Dwarkesh pulling bigger guests than Tyler _or_ Joe
Tyler who? Joe who?
@@OrwellsHousecat An economist-foodie widely considered the best podcaster in the biz, and the largest podcaster in the world.
This a very poor interview, unfortunately. You seem to pander to your guests and I have never seen you ask a difficult question. If I wanted to hear the answers to the type of questions you asked Mr Blair I might aswell read one of his multiple autobiographies.
I understand that pressing an interviewee when you are new on the interview scene may hinder your ability to attract more politicians to the show, but I would argue that this attitude risks your show becoming a PR think piece for people like Blair rather than a good quality interview.
Finally!
Yes, Minister
Very interesting Dwarkesh - Blair has consistently shown leadership with AI and pushed for UK investment and R&D. His thoughts on Singapore were interesting. Now if only Europe could implement those policies.
his daddy is Dick Cheney and granddaddy is Bush Sr
The government is broken, and I HELPED! 😢
This is great. Tony Blair is such an eloquent man with insightful thoughts. This is how podcast should be done. You don't get such conversation on Bloomberg
Ironically it's what Lee Kuan Yew didn't do that made Singapore rich - leaving the British established institutions, finanical and legal systems unchanged. This is contrast to how the Chinese government is progressingly messing up Hong Kong.
HK is now much more prosperous than HK was under British rule.Further,HK always ranks among the highest in freedom of speech and judicial independence in international surveys.Go worry about your own country, dude!
@@thinkingaloud5379 mainland chinese wumao
@@derekl190 CIA bot
@@thinkingaloud5379 Please cite your evidence. Curious. What i see is that it keeps falling year by year 🥴
@@endi4654 Just google.The data is all there.
Dwarkesh is like the anti-rogan
how many WMDs
Such an original comment. (Sarcasm in mode ).
I'm sorry how?
Good job. Try and get the exiled crown prince of iran.
Blair didnt mention , we need to respect our Huge neighbours , our heritage , our malays . Till Today Malay is our national language and our anthem is in malay also . our military commands are in malay . English is our Working language & 1st language to unify the people . Malay language is like our figurehead also . Imagine if Ukraine did what singapore did , you think Russia would still attack ??
Woah
You are becoming one of the best interviewers around mainly cos you don't dumb it down! makes it far more interesting...
He did well during his first term bcz he was ambitious and innocent! Then he messed up in his second term bcz he started to align his policy and ambition with US so he lost his track and he will always be remembered for his wars debacle so asking him for advice is pretty much like asking an arsonist to come and put out fire but Im learning ftom him :)
Shallow, poorly thought through questions.
"What advice would you have given Lee Kuan Yew?".
The interviewer is an intellectual lightweight unaware of this and high on his own supply.
God knows I love Tony Blair. But when he says "what we do with our leaders..." the "our" is not accidental.
9:12 Blair quoting lee kuan yew
Yessssssssssssssssssssssssss
I despise Blair and believe he was the start to the end. I did think this interview was particularly interesting especially the moments regarding Lee Kuan Yew.
Thanks for the content
If you thought the problems started with Blair then you must not be very old and have no memory or personal experience of who came before him. The 1960s, the 1970s. Absolutely woeful.
@@joythought Blair started the uncontrolled mass immigration
@@ShotsMerkzAlland stopped the police tackling crime
I wonder who boken it and who keeps it broken
I’ve never really had time to look into Tony Blair, but holy crap he is such a bright individual so articulate and well thought out. Absolutely amazing conversation! Really, really so inspired and awestruck
Tony Blair is a clever and intensely evil man.
He’s scum
People said that about epstein
Great interview and a great guest.
Those are some dark scary eyes
If Tony ran today, I'd still vote for him.
War criminal.
Bruh unexpected
Yes the guy is thought of as a war criminal by many - and he does not spend much time here - but given the quality of his successors, well it's all been downhill from him being a bit shifty to flat out lies cronyism and corruption. The bit from 44m in is a tl:dr of how to run a country. The one sentence "figure out the right policy and then shape the politics to fit that" is exactly what the current uk govt has not done arguably since 2010.
Brit here who voted for Blair in '97 on a wave of enthusiasm.
This man ignored the democratic will of the British people and illegally invaded Iraq, killing 500,000 civilians, destroying the country, and giving rise to groups like ISIS.
In the end the British people had enough and his Chancellor was able to force him from office.
DO NOT listen to this man. He was demonstrably an awful PM and a terrible decision maker.
not to mention he was in power when the grooming gang scandal started to come to light and actively told police constabularies to hide the problem.