Carl Von Clausewits 'On war' - 'Directly increasing the waste of your enemy's forces. The first is invasion, That is the occupation of the enemy's territory, not with a view to keeping it'
Good quote. Too many people fixate on territorial gains when Russia stated they're fighting a war of attrition. I think Russia is constantly probing to force Ukraine to reinforce and redeploy troops. I think the key question is "Where are Russia's reserves?". They've been steadily building up forces and seem to have a lot of reserves, with reports of 500-600k troops now in theatre. So whether Russia's plan is to force UAF to the north, then push to the south or centre. Russia has the time advantage and may wait for winter and do a repeat of the time it took Odessa.
Reserves are not useful now that the situation has become attrition. Massing units for a breakthrough only presents a target for artillery. By definition a breakthrough attempt concentrates forces and makes them vulnerable.
@@brolohalflemming7042 An often overlooked part is that opening new fronts forces the Ukies to redeploy troops and material in the open which provides nice targets for air power and missiles.
If the Ukrainians though guerrilla warfare would work, they would have implemented it. The reality is the population is pretty agnostic, and the people of the Donbass don't like the Kiev government which is dominated by Ukrainian nationalists. The party of the regions, which the east and south always voted for wanted a federal system, not the centralised control from Kiev, a federal system would have protected the south and east from the worst of Ukrainian nationalism. Stop listening to Ukrainian talking points and educate yourself on the politics of the area.
We are beyond the point of a federal system in Ukraine. Now it is too late for this. In the end: a part of the ukrainian territory will be in russians hands.
how does that go tho with their stated goal of getring their land back? cant get your land back playin defense so if they fell back it would to me say they cant achieve their goals for the continuation of the war... WE KNOW ULRAINE HAS LOST. why they dont i have no idea but clearly there is no way forward for them
I think the offensive was mostly successful. I believe there were two goals - stop the artillery bombardment of Belgorod, and draw Ukrainian units into the attack in a location where logistics were ideal for firepower suppression. I think the Russians intended to use the river line as the anchor for their defensive positions. What they didn't expect was Ukraine sacrificing a large number of troops to hold a position in Vovchansk, turning the fight into high-casualty urban combat. The expansion of Ukrainian strikes into Russia is a military benefit for Russia. Yes, they lose an insignificant portion of their infrastructure, but they can repair it far more easily than Ukraine can repair theirs. Attacks on Russia itself also solidifies popular support for Putin, because his position has been that this is an existential fight for Russia, and now he's been proven correct (despite there not being an actual signifcant threat). It also means Ukraine is using very scarce missile assets on targets that have esssentially zero impact on the battlefield.
It's not a Russian position, it's the way it is. What happened to Yugoslavia? That's right, it's balcanization. Read the 2019 RAND report: "Extening Russia. Fighting from advantageous ground."
The situation in Vovchansk reminds the Robotyne front during the Ukrainian Counteroffensive. They will waste a huge amount of equipment and men for mininal gains. In the end, Russia will retake all the territory retaken by Ukraine.
This is what happens when an army never learns from its mistakes. Ukraine wants to attend the NATO summit in a few days with the victory of "liberating" territories they lost due to poor defenses near the borderlands. They are desperately trying to erase their failures in Avdiivka and last year's failed counteroffensive.
Strategic Failure? UKR hoping to defeat Russia , any percieved withdrawal by Russia is planned to draw the Ukrainians in to range of fire --- Russia hasn't begun to fight ,yet
During the Soviet Afghan wae most political leaders where Ukrianian, most military leaders on the ground were Ukrianian, a great chunk of the equipment was Ukraine made. It is about time you stop thinking about Ukraine as a victim of the USSR. It was instrumental in its birth (it all started in Odessa with the sailors) and in running into chaos
Exactly. Soviet is not Russia+slave ethnicities, or whatever. Russia is not USA or the West in general. Stalin was Georgian, Pushkin is of Ethiopian ancestry, most Tzars were German... Western mindset can't understand Russian, Asian, or any other mindsets, really. It's too self-centered and intolerant of other ways of life without serious modifications.
Ahahah this is the great myth which has been propagated. Ukraine a victim of USSR 😂. I’m Indian, and a lot of idiots here think Russia equals USSR, and Russia “helped” India during the Bangladesh Liberation war 1971. In fact, the USSR at the time was run by a Ukrainian (Brezhnev), the Foreign Minister was Ukrainian (Gromyko), and the Defence Minister was Ukrainian too (Marshal Grechko). Fully 3 presidents Of the USSR were Ukrainian. What a laugh.
@@mattgbam The post-Soviet anti-Russian propaganda is build in layers. The foundation being that USSR was essentially Russians, and all the 14 other republics were under their iron fist. Which is simply factually incorrect. Especially as far as Ukraine is concerned, being one of the founding nations of the USSR, and at certain points actually holding the majority in the Politburo of the Communist Party. The second layer it to lay the blame for the attrocities visited upon certain peoples by the USSR on the Russians. Like the Holodomor. Which again is factually incorrect. As the Holodomor was primarily the result of Stalins politics, and Stalin was Georgian. Likewise, "the Russians" are blamed for attempting to put down the Poznan protests in Poland in 1956. When in fact, it was the Polish own Communist party that sent the army against the protesters. And the third layer of course is the propagation of the idea that former Soviet republics want to join NATO because they fear the return of "Russian oppression". Which is used to directly justify the expansion of NATO. Such cheap and pathetic propaganda does not work against people who know history. But sadly, most people these days do not know history very well. And those who perpetuate this propaganda are banking on that fact. Humanity in general would be much better off if the majority of people did not find history "boring". Unfortunately, it is not so.
You must add a factor to the exemple you gave , the compare of Ukraine and afganistan not good enough, The population in the East and South of Ukriane they are Russian so long time war Not good for Ukraine. Second thing don't ever say Ukrainian want this or that, say which ethnic of Ukrainian , it is not one part.
I think that the tartars of Crimea would have had a say if they hadn't been relocate by starlin to the gulags at the other side of Russia, which they stole from China after ww2. Maybe China might ask for it back since it is ethically Chinese people 🤔
@@robmckrill3134 What will make you accept that Washington's latest proxy war against Russia has failed? Putin observing a victory in Kiev? The west of Ukraine smoked by Russian ICBMs? Putin did it slowly and softly with a fraction of his military, but he's succeeding despite the US & lackeys trying every trick in the book. Hard for the media-fed to admit they were wrong.
Ok pretend you are a Ukrainian man and ask yourself would you want to fight Russia when you know that you have a 90%'sh chance of dying and when the only reason you are fighting is because you are being forced to fight by Zelenssky and you have no right to leave the country if you don't want to fight and risk dying? And considering the fact that the only realistic difference in your life whether Ukraine wins or Russia wins is that either Zelensky will be your president or Putin will be president, and your day to day life will not be meaningfully any different whether you are a Russian or Ukrainian? Is this what you would choose to fight and die for? Zelensky? I don't think so.
Actually, there is a big difference between living in Ukraine and Russia. Putin has wiped out low level corruption, but paying off cops, tax collectors, etc is still part of daily life in Ukraine. And Russia doesn’t discriminate against a Russian speakers, who are the majority in these regions. What with being Russia. Ukraine does. A lot.
@@TheGreatAmphibian You know nothing about that except what you get from the Z-anon influencers that tell you what you want to hear. Patriots are de-banked and harrassed daily by the Establishment there, marginally better than Ukraine.
I wouldn't even go to the Pub if I lived in Ukraine now, wondering if I accidentally had one too many. Would I wake up in uniform being kicked by a drill Sergeant?
How does anyone listen to this guy? I understand when people write without punctuations. But how does one talk with punctuations? Sometimes states sentences and doesn’t end them before going into another and one doesn’t understand what exactly he is saying. Dima of Weeb Union who English isn’t his first language communicates much better.
Comparing this to Afghanistan is stupid since Afghan rebels simply blend in with local population and commit sabotages, this is not happening in Ukraine because most Ukrainian living in those occupied territories sided with Russia
What? I thought Ukrainians were the Unified Great White Hope. That’s what my media and political elite have been telling me. A bastion of Democracy in an Ocean of evil. You’ve shattered my hopes and dreams.
there are some partisans, but negligible, since mostly support Russia, or indifference since for them it is the same ukraine or russia, they just don't bother with it.
one thing i think you are COMPLETELY wrong I think is about how must Ukraine win this war. Ukraine can't win this war, whatever the tactics employed. You make a very wrong comparison with afganistan. Russia will take Russian territory filled with Russian people who do not want to be govern by Kiev. The rest is of no interest to Russia, they stated this a thousand times. Ukraine, Zelensky and all the West troop is done. Time is on Russian side, the watch (if any) is on western dellusional management.
You’re speaking from sanity, Willy is speaking from cope. Being delusional enough to think the Russians would have an insurgent problem at the start of the war was excusable, but at this stage, no. If it was going to happen, it already would have.
How you people can look at a blue sky and then write an essay saying how and why it's green and it's not actually the sky is equal parts phenomenal as it is bewildering.
He believes what the US/NATO say are Russia's objectives and is then confused when Russia doesn't achieve them. He should pay attention to what Russia is doing. Russia is obliterating Ukraine's military....and Ukraine, under NATO orders and against Western political election timetables to get some headlines, is obliging. 😂
It is to create a situation which calls upon Ukranian reserves and large amounts of troops in to fire control zones causing a "meatgrinder" for enemy forces.
Hello Willy, the Russians are following a plan that was mooted back in the Cold war. The plan was for the Soviet Union to invade and take up about 100 miles of Germany and then dig in . Once dug in they would stubbonly defend against NATO who's only choice would be to attack to drive the Soviets out or be seen to have lost the war. Fast forward to 2022-24 and we see not just one use of the tactic by Russia but several times now, each time the AFU is bound to try and drive them back , wasting their military in doing so. The AFU needs a fresh approach.
Stop looking at maps.......it's meaningless. Russia doesn't need land. That's the first point to understand. Russia likes to expose cracks in the western alliance, for example when the US congress block funding for Ukraine, when EU states cant agree what to do in Ukraine, when Saudi sell oil in RMB, when there's not an unlimited supply of weapons & funding to Ukraine. Their mission is to keep Russia in one piece and demonstrate that they have the resolve and capacity to do that and that their neighbours shouldn't become hostile to them.. China doesn't need NATO to the north of them so they've better off with Uncle Putinsky than if a pro-western government gets into Russia.
Who's threatening to see Russia in pieces? How would they do that? Who would do that? 2 years into ww3, who is threatening Russia? Are you making the slightest sense? Are the borders adjoining NATO empty of garrisoned soldiers? Are they all in Ukraine? Hmmm?
Ukraine could have had everything except Crimea in the April 22 peace deal. Not accepting was a huge mistake. Not taking the lastest offer a bigger mistake, how many mistakes before Ukraine no longer exists as a state.
The Ukrainians suffered more casualties than the Russians in Bakhmut because of the same logic of holding land at any price and that is why after Bakhmut the Ukrainians have never won any other major battle against the Russians while the Russians keep winning one battle after the other.
Correct. Nine set-piece sieges/battles in which Russia was victorious and Ukraine's losses exceeded Russia's despite them being defenders. If anything, the losses for Ukraine are increasing as Russia's artillery dominance and FAB use increases.
any actual evidence of this other then trust me bro? I’ll remind you while that battle was taking place Ukraine liberated 1000s of square miles of territory in north east and Kherson. Russia is currently at about the same lines they held in April 2022. Russia has gained small amounts of territory over time, in head on attritional warfare. At their current rate it will take them 2 years to take back the territory lost in 2022. At that point west production will have caught up and Ukraine will have far more air assets available. Long grinding invasion typically end well for the invader and their military.
Nah, gotta trust "me" I'm afraid. The only known figures for Bakhmut are those of Wagner. 19.5k!!!! If you recall Prigozhin immediately went into mutiny mode, forced the surrender of command central in Rostov-on-Don. Soldiers deserted to join his thunder run opposed ONLY by a few road workers who dug some ditches across the highway and some planes that were shot down. He was so popular and if he had carried through we wouldn't now be talking about Putin the Runt but PRIGOZHIN THE RUNT KILLER. Oh btw, remember the 10:1 casualty rates in favour of the Russians 😂😂😂 Remember that little wet fantasy?
@@bumble-g2j If you're going to talk about losses admitted by Wagner, you also have to talk about how many Ukrainians Wagner claimed to have killed. And in May 2023 they made a post where that number was over 50k. Those weren't just for Bakhmut of course, it was for all Wagner operations since February 2022, but the bulk was certainly there. So if you believe their losses without question, you're gonna have to believe this claim too. You could claim that it's all made up and cut it in half, but that would still show that Ukrainian losses were at least as high as Wagner's. Doesn't look good no matter how you look at it, but nice try. As for Prigozhin's mutiny, I love how you deliberately omit that he and Putin were actually aquaintences, and how his beef was always with Gerasimov and Shoigu. Only a fool that gets all their information from CNN would think that Prigozhin was planning to replace Putin. In every interview he ever did he always stressed that he believed in the mission, and his problem was with how it was being carried out, not that he thought Putin was worthless. And the kicker is, even if he DID feel that way that would be bad news for Ukraine because he was more hardline than Putin, not less...
I think UA doesn’t give up land for time because they know that no matter how much time they buy, they will not likely get back the lost territory. Kharkov and Kherson successes were only possible in that specific timeframe, when the RU lines were stretched too thin and the industrial complex and recruitment weren’t operating on the current levels.
We will not learn anything about the ratio of losses in Volchansk. But it is hard for me to believe that the Russian army, in a defensive position, with the cover of Russian artillery and aviation, suffers greater losses than the Ukrainian army, which is limited in supplies due to the fact that they cross the river without bridges. They cannot transport armored vehicles, and they are trying to storm. The direction of promotion. Maybe I don't understand something, but the direction in which the APU attack is being conducted is strange. It would be understandable if the APU tried to occupy the factory and the embankment. It would be understandable if the AFU tried to capture areas from the Glubokoe side and thus organize logistics to get armored vehicles. Move deeper? What happens if Russian troops allow the AFU to move deeper, start heavy fighting there and at that moment capture the embankment with a blow from the factory? The APU likes to say that Russia's advance into the Chasov Yar is very difficult, and it costs a lot of losses. But this is not the case. Russia does not intend to do anything at all that would be difficult for it. The pace at which the Russian army is moving is due to the fact that it moves only when it is given the opportunity. The transfer of troops from Chasovyi Yar to Kharkov provided such an opportunity. An attempt to strengthen the forces of Chasov Yar at the expense of the defense of Gorlovka led to a breakthrough near Gorlovka. The advance of Russian troops is reflected on the map of the transfer of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The secret of the Russian army's advance lies in the fact that the AFU already lacks combat-ready forces along the entire front line. And propaganda counterattacks further aggravate the situation for them.
Exactly. But this is the problem when your overall strategy is dictated by propaganda and not the reality on the ground. Let us assume the Russians make a full retreat back across the border in the North. What then? Redeploy all the forces back to the south, and then what? The second that is done, the Russians can simply threaten Kharkov again! Then what? Redeploy back to Kharkov again? This is a checkmate position.
Ukies are saying they will bait Russians into attrition war, how ? They have shells deficit, they have outnumbered Rus in Harkiv 5 to 1 in men power. Stop talking crap it sounds ridiculous
yes it's 6000 Russian's vs 30k Ukies meanwhile Russia is making gains in the east and farming Ukraine in Vovchansk with FAB's Ukraine falls for the same trap everytime
Willy, the comparison with the Taliban is not very valid. The population of Ukraine under "Russian occupation" is not really hostile towards Russia. The people in Ukraine can easily swing one way or the other. There is no guerrilla actions or sabotages in Crimea since 2014. No similar actions in Donbas, Luhansk. Compare that to Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam. Most of the Ukrainians are abroad unwilling to fight because they see not much sense giving their lives to live in corrupt Ukraine vs being part of Russia. Russia will probably take territories that always voted pro Russian and make sure that the rest rump Ukraine is dysfunctional enough that it never be a threat to Russia. They will not go to the places they are not wanted. That is why your strategy of defeating Russia with constant nuisances will not work here.
Willy isn't particularly familiar with the events of 2014 leading up to the invasion. He's another zogbot drowning in CIA manufactured copium. Hopeless.😒
That is a very bald statement. GDR wasn't much of a problem for the Moscow but you can't say that germans are easily swing one way or the other. The western Ukraine Kiev inc. will be hostile toward Russia. So basically Kremlin will gladly finish this war with what he gets at the moment, probably thinking about Odessa only
@@DarrelX-im2hb Can't you grasp that Germans are not Russian or even Slavic ? Your comparison is ridiculous. Ukraine is full of ethnic Russians, mixed families, Russian speakers and Russian sympathisers who hate the corrupt Zionist oligarchs cabal illegitimately in government ? Millions have fled the country before and during this war. Those left have lost husbands, sons and fathers...fighting for the benefit of Zelenskys gangsters , US hegemony and BlackRock, Goldman Sachs Monsanto etc. The truth is now pouring out. It won't be long now.
One thing i wonder though is how much choice do the Ukrainians exactly even have when it comes to narrative driven strategy. Because at this point, literally the only reason their war effort has not completely collapsed is because the west keeps feeding them weapons, intel, training and funds. And the west needs results to show to their people, or support for the war effort suffers. Which in turn means that Ukraine has to keep up the apperence that they are winning, even when they are clearly not. Or they risk losing support from the west.
I’m sorry, but the fact that the Afghans defeated the Soviet Union is bullshit. With 15,000 to 1.5 million casualties and despite the support of Afghan terrorists (Usama bin Laden, for example, the future of the "Taliban" and "Al-Qaeda") the United States did not defeat the Soviet army there. Just the traitor Gorbachev abandoned his allies - the legitimate government of Afghanistan and sold and betrayed the Soviet Union too. Not so long ago, we watched Americans leave Afghanistan, and they were defeated there, too? Can we find out what the US has lost over the years in Afghanistan, how many tanks, planes, people, and so on? No one has been defeated by the Afghans; indeed, this long-suffering country has always been only a playground for the great Powers because of its geographical location. The big guys would kick each other and replace one with another, and the Afghans would rush under their feet just trying to survive. Due to this, there is still a basically tribal system, it is not even the Middle Ages. The Soviet Union tried to shed light on this chaos, building roads, schools, hospitals and universities, Afghans did not grow opium poppy at all. But as we know, it is now possible to drive even the more enlightened and educated societies and peoples mad by supplying arms and money. In the name of democracy.
Hey bud, thanks for the analysis. I agree with you about Ukraine not being able to attrit Russia but on the other end, time is not on Ukraines side either since Euroeans and Americans alike are starting to lose interest and the Russian version of events is getting traction among people. Since February this year the EU pledged 50bn and US 61bn and then another 1,5bn and then another 50bn at the peace conference. This does not include European nations pledging separately, I know Sweden gave 10bn over 3 years and another 1bn in arms right now and there are many others. This cant go on, its ridiculous, something between 160bn and 200bn transferred from western taxpayers (who are experiencing diminishing living standards) to Ukraine in less than 6 months. One more year at most, then we will start seeing riots if our governments keep doing this without even asking. Might get back on the other comment where you asked for a dialogue, started writing a reply but it became an essay. Can I send you an email? Whats the addy plz. Cheers buddy, keep it up, you look great btw
With all that money spent, I wonder if the land could of just been purchased. I know stupid comment. I guess someone is getting rich from selling stuff and can afford to influence the politicians. It just looks like a proxy war as usual between East vs West. The West would love all those resources, I'm guessing and the east wants the us hegemony to die off. Brics as an alternative is looking more viable.
Seemed super obvious from the relatively low level training/new recruits and limited number of troops/armor that Russia did not expect to make it that far in on the Kharkiv front. They only wanted to draw Ukrainian troops to that area so Ukraine can’t build up any reserves. I keep seeing stories about Ukrainian conscripts that don’t want to fight saying they will defend but not attack as well.
No shit. And it’s just the beginning, there is a lot of equipment being moved near Belgorad, hundreds of armored vehicles including tanks and artillery.
I have to laugh every time I hear 'territory for time'. Time do do what? Help is not on the way. Every day is a greater disparity. Time to cede more territory before admitting defeat? Time to lose the last vestige of a workforce that could help the country recover? Time to demonstrate to everyone who did not get the memo that the Kiev regime cares nothing about the country or it's people?
I definitely believe they were baited. As they were in the 2023 offensive, bakhmut adiivka an various other settlements across the frontline. It just wasn't that visible because there were ukranian air defense at the time. I don't know this comment will be deleted or not, but over two years of fighting ukraine went into a lot of battle head on where retreat or at least asymmentric guerilla warfare would been strategically and tactically way better.
In order to operate a guerilla war successfully you have to have a civilian population that partially supports you, After 8 years of Kyiv repression this is not the case. This is as much a civil war not just Russia ukraine something Willy and the west forget
Honestly, you have come up with the only strategy stupider than the one zelensky is using. It’s like the Germans trying to counter D Day by waiting for a French uprising against the Allies.
@@championknife Considering that the Ukrainian government now literally refers to the civilian population in those territories as "occupiers", i am not surprised.
"Actually, the whole story is about Global Hawk and MiG-31 in the video, to which I can only add that there were two passes. At different speeds. And everything turned out only the second time, when we accelerated to 2.3 M. This is the first such case in the history of aviation, as far as I know. At such heights and speeds, no one, no one, has ever "met". The MiG-31 was chosen as the only aircraft that can perform this task from the entire fleet in service with the VKS at such an altitude. The pilot and navigator of the MiG-31 790 iap 105 sal received the "Order of Courage". The crews are preparing for new "meetings .
The Afghan tactic wont work here for Ukrain and their paylord. For they want those territories and resources, but the inhabitants will not leave. And so wont the troops as their Russian brothers protecting them. So they need to take it back if they want it. The other tactic just makimg the Russians create a bigger buffer. Best would have been for this war to never have started. But who would not have none of that? The ones that bought the coutry and those that sold it, that are the last to die, if at all?
Just another ignorant opinion looking solely at territorial gain. Prior to this northern offensive to create a buffer zone, Russia was eliminating about a 1000 Ukrainian cannon fodder every day, now that has jumped to 2000 and will only increase with the introduction of the FABulous 3000.
You begin to understand Russian military doctrine. Besides creating a buffer zone for the Belgorod region, luring troops away from other fronts is a clear goal. The Russians created fortifications just behind the front lines to retreat to and let the Ukrainians break their teath on. The Russians can count on the full cooperation of the Ukrainians, as the Ukrainians reliably react as the Russians want, repeating the same errors over and over again.
Ukrainians fight media war, so they predictable in this, and Russians created strategy to abuse Ukraine's unableness to stop fighting media war first and physical war second
@@brianonthewater By what metrics? Objective info shows that with minimum froces, the Russians trapped and pinned down 30'000 Uki's that cannot be used elsewhere. This is a factor in multiple Russian advances. Thus, it is a clear Russian success.
@@luyandamgaba3937 Correction - he's cold. Sitting around in his parent's basement with no suit at all, wearing just his skid marked skivvies and a pair of socks with holes in them
Nah he suits this colour, reminds me of a British Army officer's uniform from the secondworld war; if the tie matched in colour, anyway. If you don't like his sartorial sense, maybe give him some pointers, unconstructive criticism doesn't help anyone
I think it's right that Russia is trying to expand the front, although it's not clear if they plan to withdraw. Given the fortifications, perhaps they are planning to create strongpoints which are heavily supported, in order to extend the front-line without sustaining the casualties that manoeuvre warfare would generate. That is, if they just want to pull AFU troops away from the "ATO" frontline, then they don't necessarily need to advance, they just need to increase frontage, which they can do just by creating little salients like this.
Without knowing more, it currently appears that this was an operation designed to create a new pressure region for Ukraine to commit regional reserves so as to disadvantage other local embattled sectors, maybe also to create a new target for munitions otherwise targeting important facilities in native Russian areas. It's very possible that they met with unexpected initial success, which resulted in the large move forward and possibly the visceral Ukrainian reaction. Either way, from a logistical perspective, it seems like a mistake for Ukraine to burn resources to retake this region; this war will end at the negotiating table and this region should be very low in priority when compared to the seaside regions. In general, Ukraine has indicated a severe lack of focus in defensive operations, striking here and there but never really commiting significant resources to crippling a particular region or enemy capability, at least apart from air defence to some degree and only recently. I believe this lack of focus and tendency to cling to every centimetre of soil is the greatest Ukrainian disadvantage right now, has been from the start.
It's a War logic you're talking, while the Money logic demands Zelenski and others to burn out as much resources as possible in order to demand and launder more. On the other hand, money laundering requires time, so war shouldn't end too soon.
Yes Willy, this is the next Afghanistan. But this time, the invader builds defensive works as they go and they come from right over the border instead of over the ocean and/or through massive mountainous terrain. The Soviet Union left Afghanistan shortkly before it lost the military-economic cold war and collapsed. While the cold war is as hot as it ever was now, there are no signs of Russia collapsing now. Quite the opposite seems to happen with half the world beeing FED up to the point of actually trying to get rid of their dependency on the USD for trade. China is now the factory of the world and its hunger for energy, food and raw resources is massive... This war aint over soon. The good news is that this gives the real Afghanistan a chance of recovery and actually progressing on an economic and social level... Until the gaze of the super powers fall on it again and the next proxy war happens.
Straight from the YT sidebar: "Ruzzia will have to move out". Right, and always the "clever" z letters. The guy is a total joke, made even more hilarious by his draft-dodging.
So Verdun is maybe a good starting point in explaining the evolution of attritional war as described? Not getting caught in your own 'trap'? Resources are precious, wasting them on rubbish optics is a very bad idea. Makes a lot of sense.
Do you think Ukraine will be able to field robot soldiers (controlled by advanced AI) to make up numbers before this is over? Metal grinder assaults by Ukraine.
Police get equipment and weapons first used by the military, usually a few years later. So expect intelligent drone swarms doing everyday law enforcement (and other policing of the general public) within a few years.
You don't win a war by losing the centre. Even if your win both flanks and this is shown in WW2, the Vikings had the same ideology. You smash through the centre then you exploded out. The Southern offensive by Ukraine has the same concept, to break through the centre, then to attack the flanks. The only reason you want to take the flanks is when the centre is a struggle and you need to out maneuver the centre, but because the line is so long, there is VERY limited ability for maneuver warfare. WW1 THERE WERE NO FLANKS! How to win modern war is not in some historical book. Your fighting against commander that have THOUSANDS of the most difficult battles raging from the dark ages all the way to the middle ages. Get that through your tiny little brain. That your reading a book about war. Fighting again people who have been fighting wars as commanders since they were children. Commanding hundreds of Calvary, to thousands of spartan pike men to launching ICBMS and even getting in the pilots seat of F22s and dogfighting with SU57s. Ukraine CANT WIN! Because no one, no where, has ever defeated these children who grew up commanding militaries over 1000s of years of military evolution. You just an old man clinging to his books like a woman clings to her pearls when the bad man comes knocking.
Fact the Russian Army from 2022 to 2024 although larger an the initial force of2022 and now better trained equipment and experienced. Ukraine 2022 to 2024 completely decimated by the Russians. Of the 700k troops (450k reg 250k res) Ukraine had in 2022 90%of them are either dead or permanently unfit for active duty. The Afghanis did win the war. Only because the Yanks decided to pull out. Progress was being made . The Taliban's influence was slowly being eroded . Unlike when the Soviets were there . The Yanks only had to deal with turban sandal wearing fighters. Which hard enough as they all Carry weapons and it's hard to distinguish friend from Foe without having to worry about worry about a third party. I believe had another 10 years perseverance and Afghanistan would have been liberated.
Russia: “Let’s distract the Ukrainians by loosing thousands of our own troops, dozens of tanks and APCs, destroying one of the few cities we’ve actually captured, and eventually an embarrassing withdrawal“. Yes, that’ll work.
Ukraine: " we are not corrupt country" west: "So why are you loosing this war, when you say Ruzzians are bad soldiers and we give you our western weapons ,training and info/satelite,etc?" Ukraine: "we need to throw some people in jail, coz they are too corrupt, thats why we are not winning...but dont worry...when thkse peolle get i jail we will winnn....just send more moneyzzz😂"
OMFG give it up, the fighting retreat was what i said to do in the opening stage of the war. They still cling to this strategy, you don't conduct fighting retreats when you out number the enemy 5:1, which by June 2022, they had 1 million men, the Russians arguably had about 150,000. Yes when caught by surprise you want to by time, a fighting retreat is required to slow down advance. But its two years later... The person who told them to organize the fighting retreat is fighting with the Russians because of political decision made by Ukraine which means Ukraine cannot win the peace. Which makes it pretty easy for a peace keeper to choose the best path to find long lasting peace...
I’m liking a lot of Pro-Ukies popping up in here, I like the different opinions. Unlike garbage Propaganda channels like Denys and other Pro Ukrainian channels on RUclips, I think Willy welcomes you and won’t censor your comments.👍💪
I think the last point of the video is salient. If the Ukrainians fought more asymmetrically (like they did in Sumy and Kiev in 2022) it would have drained Russians resources. In direct engagements, like Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Adievvka, the cost has been high for Ukraine even if they inflict significant damage on the Russian forces.
15:25 I disagree: the difference between Afghanistan vs. USA and Ukraine vs. Russia is that in the former, the burden worked because the US is democratic country. While in the current conflict, Ukraine is the democratic country [it's could be debatable, taking into account that currently the rights of citizens are severely limited, but still], so are you really sure about the side, which will break under the pressure?
Listening to Putin should give you a clue to Russian strategy. He said, "We are not trying to take Kharkov". It was a battlefield "stretcher". It's obvious that a country with more population would do this lacking a large standing army which was the case with Russia. It had to be attrition.
afgani tactics wont work in Ukraine because when US/USSr went to Afgan the mind set of a soldier is entirely different from an afgani common man, culturally , linguastically. But in Ukrain eventhough they claim they are different they were part if a same system for years. Terrain is similar , culture and language is similar (i wont claim same ) this helps creatinf local support. Why no regular attacks in Occupied Kherson. For the people just rulers changed didnt affect their culture or language so most of them co-operating in afgan it was different. But if ukraine can do series of partisan attacks inside Russia it may make difeerence fighting a partisan war with regular army make sense when most of the general population is against. In this case i dint think thats the case. In Easter ukraine out of 4 people in one family 3 may support ukraine but 1 supports russia that is enough to thwart any partisan plans.
If the defence lines had well prepared, Russians wouldn't have gone to that area. Of course, Russians will go whereever the weakest points are. I know that you have high hope for Ukraine, but it is laughable when you blame on official corruptions again and again.
I totally agree, Willy! I don’t know how Ukrainians hasnt called up men they have to draw them out with time and they’ll have to do it anyway eventually if they take Kiev might as well start now when you have a better Frontline and better than gorilla warfare, let’s hope they wake up soon! 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇨🇦🇺🇦
It’s likely both and unclear who is taking advantage of who. Russia’s initial attack was good for them. It was to distract Ukraine and get them to defend area’s with low defensive works and draw reserves away. But then the West gave the go-ahead for use of many of their weapons on Russian territory to target the weapons and staging grounds there. This was a big blow to Russia as it wasn’t just unprepared for it, it also meant the missile strikes it did from the region could now be targeted and destroyed rather than fire freely. On top of that Putin made claims about what territory it would capture, and he would lose face if he failed in that. Giving incentive to throw in more people and weaponry than they should into a disavantaged situation. Problem is that Ukraine has already shown itself to be too prideful to lose territory too. The current attacks could potentially be bait to make the Russians keep pouring troops here rather accept a “temporary” static defense line and use forces elsewhere. But it’s just as easily that Ukraine simply is making a big mistake pushing too hard where they should have tried to bleed Russia more and safeguard their own strength. It could even be both.
I heard the argument about Ukraine doing an Afghan style fighting. It won’t work for Ukrainians. Two nations speak the same language and have the same culture.
If the Ukraine didn't learn from history, especially the battle at Kursk between Germany and Russia, then they ran directly into a trap. The Russiand build strong defensive positions and the Ukrainians are attacking. The attackers will loose vast numbers in an attack against fortifications.
the problem is terrain and culture. Afghanistan was mountainous and inaccessible with a fundamentalist islamic culture. Ukraine is flat and the Donbass wants Ukraine's armed forces evicted, so insurgents will have little support and are easily found.
One aspect of attritional war that the Russians are very good at is digging fortifications. They even have specialized units that do this. This does make them very difficult to throw out of defensive positions. I can't help but feel that the Ukrainians are likely on the loosing side of this equation with these counterattacks.
PR, which is what had decisively established itself in the western and also ukrainina space, enforces Ukr to accept the attritional style of warfare, exhausting its resources. The definition of victory here makes it for Ukr. impossible to achieve. Either the definition will need to be adjusted or defeat accepted. Sooner it happens, earlier the bloodshed is over. PR does not win battles, editing of the wikipedia neither.
Willy…how come the obvious inability of Russia to stop basic drones is never talked about? Seems to me that these drones are devastating Russian assets on Russian soil…never did I believe this could never happen.
I have to agree here. The vovchansk/kharkov front seems to be a misdirection to pull troops from other areas. Rus hadn't made a truly concentrated push there. I think they know ukr will counterattack soon and are just digging in in areas that are likely to be assaulted. The bigger the front is, the better it is for rus given their manpower advantage.
Spend and episode just critiquing russian forces you have so much material last you months battle by battle. Afghanistan was invaded by britain several times without any success the by soviets and coalition. Its geography and fighting nature is a nightmare they war among themselves like so many areas but give them a common foe they arent going anywhere but neither were Vietnamese, name the african country whether colonized by portuguese, french, dutch or whatever. They are fighting for there existence thats the nature of resistance the occupiers can always be waited out where the desire to resist exists.
Bro, you are missing some basics. Porussians want to being the fight to Kharkov so industrial potential of 2nd largest city is gone as this would force civilians to leave and refugees not return. You said Ukraine brought troops to unfortified positions, but no fortified positions can be better fortified than city is a fortification already. So Ukraine used Vovchansk as a fortified trap for them. Trench is not better then city. This is not a mountain path they protecting
You say that Ukraine should adopt the same tactics that Afghanistan used against western forces for 20 years until they wearied and withdrew. Trouble is that Ukrainians do not live in the areas that Russia occupies, ethnic Russians live in the Donbas and Crimea, and many ethnic Russians also live in Karhkiv and Odesa. No occupation forces can win land if they do not have the support of the people who live in that land, Korea, Vietnam, Cyprus, Kenya, Aden, Ireland, South Africa, Afghanistan, Cuba, Lebanon Syria, Iran have all expelled forces that the population did not approve of from their countries. Ukraine failed to dominate the Donbas and Crimea even before the Russian invasion because the local people living there did not want to be Ukrainian.
Carl Von Clausewits 'On war' -
'Directly increasing the waste of your enemy's forces. The first is invasion, That is the occupation of the enemy's territory, not with a view to keeping it'
NATO has killed over half a million children in Iraq alone. How many of these children died because of your actions, Willy?
“Keep men, lose land; land can be taken again. Keep land, lose men; land and men both lost” Mao Zedong
Good quote. Too many people fixate on territorial gains when Russia stated they're fighting a war of attrition. I think Russia is constantly probing to force Ukraine to reinforce and redeploy troops. I think the key question is "Where are Russia's reserves?". They've been steadily building up forces and seem to have a lot of reserves, with reports of 500-600k troops now in theatre. So whether Russia's plan is to force UAF to the north, then push to the south or centre. Russia has the time advantage and may wait for winter and do a repeat of the time it took Odessa.
Reserves are not useful now that the situation has become attrition. Massing units for a breakthrough only presents a target for artillery. By definition a breakthrough attempt concentrates forces and makes them vulnerable.
@@brolohalflemming7042 An often overlooked part is that opening new fronts forces the Ukies to redeploy troops and material in the open which provides nice targets for air power and missiles.
If the Ukrainians though guerrilla warfare would work, they would have implemented it. The reality is the population is pretty agnostic, and the people of the Donbass don't like the Kiev government which is dominated by Ukrainian nationalists. The party of the regions, which the east and south always voted for wanted a federal system, not the centralised control from Kiev, a federal system would have protected the south and east from the worst of Ukrainian nationalism. Stop listening to Ukrainian talking points and educate yourself on the politics of the area.
We are beyond the point of a federal system in Ukraine. Now it is too late for this. In the end: a part of the ukrainian territory will be in russians hands.
I’m sure that Willy knows the relevant facts. He’s simply chosen to ignore them but they make him feel bad.
@@TheGreatAmphibian Willy is at least honest in his own way. But he keeps pushing for the ukrainian side for reasons only known by him.
You don't believe all elections are fixed ?
The Ukrainians are pretty agnostic.
Are they?
I wonder what the Americans put in the water to get them to commit suicide.
Wow.
It’s not about territory, it’s about destroying the Armed Forces of Ukraine
That hoary old myth.
Tactics are one thing.
Goals are another.
It's always been about territory.
You've got to show something.
@@bumble-g2jare you on drugs?
But aren't the Russian armed forces getting destroyed? 500,000 + troops dead seems quite depleting no matter how many of the others died
@@bumble-g2j Stop and think for a second. If enemy have 0 forces left - you get all the territory.
@@ImperativeGames agreed
Ukraine could have started developing trenches on their side of the river instead of sending troops to grinder
It was more profitable for contractors to dump 1000s of dragon teeth and pocket the western "aid"
Considering the large network of rivers in Ukraine, that approach could've preserved most of the Ukrainian army.
@@malcolmt7883That is not the kind off project Lindsey Graham would invest in though. He wants to see fatalities.
how does that go tho with their stated goal of getring their land back? cant get your land back playin defense so if they fell back it would to me say they cant achieve their goals for the continuation of the war... WE KNOW ULRAINE HAS LOST. why they dont i have no idea but clearly there is no way forward for them
Zelensky fires generals for obeying his orders because enough people saw the incompetence
I think the offensive was mostly successful. I believe there were two goals - stop the artillery bombardment of Belgorod, and draw Ukrainian units into the attack in a location where logistics were ideal for firepower suppression. I think the Russians intended to use the river line as the anchor for their defensive positions. What they didn't expect was Ukraine sacrificing a large number of troops to hold a position in Vovchansk, turning the fight into high-casualty urban combat.
The expansion of Ukrainian strikes into Russia is a military benefit for Russia. Yes, they lose an insignificant portion of their infrastructure, but they can repair it far more easily than Ukraine can repair theirs. Attacks on Russia itself also solidifies popular support for Putin, because his position has been that this is an existential fight for Russia, and now he's been proven correct (despite there not being an actual signifcant threat). It also means Ukraine is using very scarce missile assets on targets that have esssentially zero impact on the battlefield.
Lol
@@brianonthewater
Oh, you must be the brains then 😂
It's not a Russian position, it's the way it is. What happened to Yugoslavia? That's right, it's balcanization. Read the 2019 RAND report: "Extening Russia. Fighting from advantageous ground."
Russia: "We will push the line further away from Belgorod to neutralize the artillery."
NAFO: "Hahahah, what a failure, you didn't take Kiev!"
Yap yap yap
The situation in Vovchansk reminds the Robotyne front during the Ukrainian Counteroffensive. They will waste a huge amount of equipment and men for mininal gains. In the end, Russia will retake all the territory retaken by Ukraine.
This is what happens when an army never learns from its mistakes. Ukraine wants to attend the NATO summit in a few days with the victory of "liberating" territories they lost due to poor defenses near the borderlands. They are desperately trying to erase their failures in Avdiivka and last year's failed counteroffensive.
Another meatgrinder created by Russia.
Strategic Failure?
UKR hoping to defeat Russia , any percieved withdrawal by Russia is planned to draw the Ukrainians in to range of fire --- Russia hasn't begun to fight ,yet
That's nothing compared to what the Western powers did to Iraq, Syria, Libya - and the list goes on
@@ranting.russian Yea. About 1M of civilian casualties only in Iraq. Russians are to soft for a such kind of "warfare".
I would say ukrain is at fault too
the duran said this yrs ago
During the Soviet Afghan wae most political leaders where Ukrianian, most military leaders on the ground were Ukrianian, a great chunk of the equipment was Ukraine made. It is about time you stop thinking about Ukraine as a victim of the USSR. It was instrumental in its birth (it all started in Odessa with the sailors) and in running into chaos
Exactly. Soviet is not Russia+slave ethnicities, or whatever. Russia is not USA or the West in general. Stalin was Georgian, Pushkin is of Ethiopian ancestry, most Tzars were German... Western mindset can't understand Russian, Asian, or any other mindsets, really. It's too self-centered and intolerant of other ways of life without serious modifications.
Ahahah this is the great myth which has been propagated. Ukraine a victim of USSR 😂. I’m Indian, and a lot of idiots here think Russia equals USSR, and Russia “helped” India during the Bangladesh Liberation war 1971. In fact, the USSR at the time was run by a Ukrainian (Brezhnev), the Foreign Minister was Ukrainian (Gromyko), and the Defence Minister was Ukrainian too (Marshal Grechko). Fully 3 presidents
Of the USSR were Ukrainian. What a laugh.
@@mattgbam It is becoming apparent , this is more of a civil war than a bid for independence . Still studying the situation .
Yep, the intellectual capacity of the USSR was located in Ukraine...still is.
@@mattgbam The post-Soviet anti-Russian propaganda is build in layers.
The foundation being that USSR was essentially Russians, and all the 14 other republics were under their iron fist. Which is simply factually incorrect. Especially as far as Ukraine is concerned, being one of the founding nations of the USSR, and at certain points actually holding the majority in the Politburo of the Communist Party.
The second layer it to lay the blame for the attrocities visited upon certain peoples by the USSR on the Russians. Like the Holodomor. Which again is factually incorrect. As the Holodomor was primarily the result of Stalins politics, and Stalin was Georgian. Likewise, "the Russians" are blamed for attempting to put down the Poznan protests in Poland in 1956. When in fact, it was the Polish own Communist party that sent the army against the protesters.
And the third layer of course is the propagation of the idea that former Soviet republics want to join NATO because they fear the return of "Russian oppression". Which is used to directly justify the expansion of NATO.
Such cheap and pathetic propaganda does not work against people who know history. But sadly, most people these days do not know history very well. And those who perpetuate this propaganda are banking on that fact. Humanity in general would be much better off if the majority of people did not find history "boring". Unfortunately, it is not so.
Russia is liberating Ukraine from USA occupation. I hope one day EU will get independence.
You must add a factor to the exemple you gave , the compare of Ukraine and afganistan not good enough, The population in the East and South of Ukriane they are Russian so long time war Not good for Ukraine. Second thing don't ever say Ukrainian want this or that, say which ethnic of Ukrainian , it is not one part.
I think that the tartars of Crimea would have had a say if they hadn't been relocate by starlin to the gulags at the other side of Russia, which they stole from China after ww2. Maybe China might ask for it back since it is ethically Chinese people 🤔
@@robmckrill3134 As would the natives of USA, Canada, Pretty much the entire American Continent,Australia and New Zeeland, so what is your point? 😂
@@niklasnorberg5071 your telling the story...what's your point 👉
@@robmckrill3134 What will make you accept that Washington's latest proxy war against Russia has failed? Putin observing a victory in Kiev? The west of Ukraine smoked by Russian ICBMs? Putin did it slowly and softly with a fraction of his military, but he's succeeding despite the US & lackeys trying every trick in the book. Hard for the media-fed to admit they were wrong.
@@robmckrill3134 If you don't understand that i guess you are a hopeless case.😁🤣
Ok pretend you are a Ukrainian man and ask yourself would you want to fight Russia when you know that you have a 90%'sh chance of dying and when the only reason you are fighting is because you are being forced to fight by Zelenssky and you have no right to leave the country if you don't want to fight and risk dying? And considering the fact that the only realistic difference in your life whether Ukraine wins or Russia wins is that either Zelensky will be your president or Putin will be president, and your day to day life will not be meaningfully any different whether you are a Russian or Ukrainian? Is this what you would choose to fight and die for? Zelensky? I don't think so.
The difference is under Zelensky you can cosplay SS. A worthy cause. And also, gay stuff
Actually, there is a big difference between living in Ukraine and Russia. Putin has wiped out low level corruption, but paying off cops, tax collectors, etc is still part of daily life in Ukraine. And Russia doesn’t discriminate against a Russian speakers, who are the majority in these regions. What with being Russia. Ukraine does. A lot.
@@TheGreatAmphibian You know nothing about that except what you get from the Z-anon influencers that tell you what you want to hear.
Patriots are de-banked and harrassed daily by the Establishment there, marginally better than Ukraine.
I wouldn't even go to the Pub if I lived in Ukraine now, wondering if I accidentally had one too many. Would I wake up in uniform being kicked by a drill Sergeant?
You don't seem to really understand the deranged xenophobic hatred that the Ukrainians have for Russia.
Absolutely. This is right in to FABs open mouth
How does anyone listen to this guy?
I understand when people write without punctuations. But how does one talk with punctuations?
Sometimes states sentences and doesn’t end them before going into another and one doesn’t understand what exactly he is saying.
Dima of Weeb Union who English isn’t his first language communicates much better.
Lots of us here just for the comments these days
Cry
C'mon man, he's an Aussie - he speaks Aussieish! (It's a mixture of broken English and Kangaroo language).👍👍
Comparing this to Afghanistan is stupid since Afghan rebels simply blend in with local population and commit sabotages, this is not happening in Ukraine because most Ukrainian living in those occupied territories sided with Russia
What?
I thought Ukrainians were the Unified Great White Hope.
That’s what my media and political elite have been telling me.
A bastion of Democracy in an Ocean of evil.
You’ve shattered my hopes and dreams.
there are some partisans, but negligible, since mostly support Russia, or indifference since for them it is the same ukraine or russia, they just don't bother with it.
The Odesa locals waiting in anticipation for the orcs😂😂😂😂😂😂
Yes...we noticed the flowers in Kherson when your daddies meat left😂😂😂😂😂
@@tertiusduplessis2581 There were a lot more flowers when they initially come there
one thing i think you are COMPLETELY wrong I think is about how must Ukraine win this war. Ukraine can't win this war, whatever the tactics employed. You make a very wrong comparison with afganistan. Russia will take Russian territory filled with Russian people who do not want to be govern by Kiev. The rest is of no interest to Russia, they stated this a thousand times. Ukraine, Zelensky and all the West troop is done. Time is on Russian side, the watch (if any) is on western dellusional management.
You’re speaking from sanity, Willy is speaking from cope. Being delusional enough to think the Russians would have an insurgent problem at the start of the war was excusable, but at this stage, no. If it was going to happen, it already would have.
ok kremlbot
Russia will have nothing left after winning this war and a push over for the west .
How you people can look at a blue sky and then write an essay saying how and why it's green and it's not actually the sky is equal parts phenomenal as it is bewildering.
@@yeahnah7220 Do you think the elections were legit ?
Explain: How Ukraine has the time if it has 5 times less men and 7-10 times less ammo?🤔🤡🤡
Almost three years in this guy still doesnt understand russian military doctrine.
lmaoo
He believes what the US/NATO say are Russia's objectives and is then confused when Russia doesn't achieve them.
He should pay attention to what Russia is doing. Russia is obliterating Ukraine's military....and Ukraine, under NATO orders and against Western political election timetables to get some headlines, is obliging. 😂
Can you or someone else explain what it is? I would like to know please 🙏
It is to create a situation which calls upon Ukranian reserves and large amounts of troops in to fire control zones causing a "meatgrinder" for enemy forces.
@@ninjavlad9721svechin strategy
Hello Willy, the Russians are following a plan that was mooted back in the Cold war. The plan was for the Soviet Union to invade and take up about 100 miles of Germany and then dig in . Once dug in they would stubbonly defend against NATO who's only choice would be to attack to drive the Soviets out or be seen to have lost the war.
Fast forward to 2022-24 and we see not just one use of the tactic by Russia but several times now, each time the AFU is bound to try and drive them back , wasting their military in doing so.
The AFU needs a fresh approach.
Stop looking at maps.......it's meaningless. Russia doesn't need land. That's the first point to understand. Russia likes to expose cracks in the western alliance, for example when the US congress block funding for Ukraine, when EU states cant agree what to do in Ukraine, when Saudi sell oil in RMB, when there's not an unlimited supply of weapons & funding to Ukraine. Their mission is to keep Russia in one piece and demonstrate that they have the resolve and capacity to do that and that their neighbours shouldn't become hostile to them.. China doesn't need NATO to the north of them so they've better off with Uncle Putinsky than if a pro-western government gets into Russia.
Yeah Kiev in 3 days...
Who's threatening to see Russia in pieces?
How would they do that?
Who would do that?
2 years into ww3, who is threatening Russia?
Are you making the slightest sense?
Are the borders adjoining NATO empty of garrisoned soldiers?
Are they all in Ukraine?
Hmmm?
@@Twenty_Six_HundredI reckon they'll actually get there in over 800 days ago.
Has there been a mistake made?
Yes a catastrophic one that cost Ukraine dearly
Ukraine's mistake is the desire to join NATO instead of neutrality....
500.000 ru casualties is no cost for russia?
@@MathyBoonenOh, and the Ukraine only has 31,000😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@MathyBoonencausality does not mean death, also 500,000 causality is insanity. Cite your sourde
@@Dimension37 Ukraine mod
Ukraine could have had everything except Crimea in the April 22 peace deal. Not accepting was a huge mistake. Not taking the lastest offer a bigger mistake, how many mistakes before Ukraine no longer exists as a state.
The Ukrainians suffered more casualties than the Russians in Bakhmut because of the same logic of holding land at any price and that is why after Bakhmut the Ukrainians have never won any other major battle against the Russians while the Russians keep winning one battle after the other.
Correct. Nine set-piece sieges/battles in which Russia was victorious and Ukraine's losses exceeded Russia's despite them being defenders. If anything, the losses for Ukraine are increasing as Russia's artillery dominance and FAB use increases.
I don't think even Russians believe that one. Wagner spoke about it. Disposable prisoners.
any actual evidence of this other then trust me bro? I’ll remind you while that battle was taking place Ukraine liberated 1000s of square miles of territory in north east and Kherson. Russia is currently at about the same lines they held in April 2022. Russia has gained small amounts of territory over time, in head on attritional warfare. At their current rate it will take them 2 years to take back the territory lost in 2022. At that point west production will have caught up and Ukraine will have far more air assets available.
Long grinding invasion typically end well for the invader and their military.
Nah, gotta trust "me" I'm afraid.
The only known figures for Bakhmut are those of Wagner.
19.5k!!!!
If you recall Prigozhin immediately went into mutiny mode, forced the surrender of command central in Rostov-on-Don.
Soldiers deserted to join his thunder run opposed ONLY by a few road workers who dug some ditches across the highway and some planes that were shot down.
He was so popular and if he had carried through we wouldn't now be talking about Putin the Runt but PRIGOZHIN THE RUNT KILLER.
Oh btw, remember the 10:1 casualty rates in favour of the Russians 😂😂😂
Remember that little wet fantasy?
@@bumble-g2j If you're going to talk about losses admitted by Wagner, you also have to talk about how many Ukrainians Wagner claimed to have killed. And in May 2023 they made a post where that number was over 50k. Those weren't just for Bakhmut of course, it was for all Wagner operations since February 2022, but the bulk was certainly there. So if you believe their losses without question, you're gonna have to believe this claim too.
You could claim that it's all made up and cut it in half, but that would still show that Ukrainian losses were at least as high as Wagner's. Doesn't look good no matter how you look at it, but nice try.
As for Prigozhin's mutiny, I love how you deliberately omit that he and Putin were actually aquaintences, and how his beef was always with Gerasimov and Shoigu. Only a fool that gets all their information from CNN would think that Prigozhin was planning to replace Putin. In every interview he ever did he always stressed that he believed in the mission, and his problem was with how it was being carried out, not that he thought Putin was worthless. And the kicker is, even if he DID feel that way that would be bad news for Ukraine because he was more hardline than Putin, not less...
Ukraine always takes the bait. Right ? When it was different ?
When Putin gets tired of Zelensky he’ll leave a big pile of cocaine on top of a landmine and just wait…
I think UA doesn’t give up land for time because they know that no matter how much time they buy, they will not likely get back the lost territory. Kharkov and Kherson successes were only possible in that specific timeframe, when the RU lines were stretched too thin and the industrial complex and recruitment weren’t operating on the current levels.
We will not learn anything about the ratio of losses in Volchansk. But it is hard for me to believe that the Russian army, in a defensive position, with the cover of Russian artillery and aviation, suffers greater losses than the Ukrainian army, which is limited in supplies due to the fact that they cross the river without bridges. They cannot transport armored vehicles, and they are trying to storm.
The direction of promotion. Maybe I don't understand something, but the direction in which the APU attack is being conducted is strange. It would be understandable if the APU tried to occupy the factory and the embankment. It would be understandable if the AFU tried to capture areas from the Glubokoe side and thus organize logistics to get armored vehicles. Move deeper? What happens if Russian troops allow the AFU to move deeper, start heavy fighting there and at that moment capture the embankment with a blow from the factory?
The APU likes to say that Russia's advance into the Chasov Yar is very difficult, and it costs a lot of losses. But this is not the case. Russia does not intend to do anything at all that would be difficult for it. The pace at which the Russian army is moving is due to the fact that it moves only when it is given the opportunity. The transfer of troops from Chasovyi Yar to Kharkov provided such an opportunity. An attempt to strengthen the forces of Chasov Yar at the expense of the defense of Gorlovka led to a breakthrough near Gorlovka. The advance of Russian troops is reflected on the map of the transfer of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The secret of the Russian army's advance lies in the fact that the AFU already lacks combat-ready forces along the entire front line. And propaganda counterattacks further aggravate the situation for them.
Exactly.
But this is the problem when your overall strategy is dictated by propaganda and not the reality on the ground.
Let us assume the Russians make a full retreat back across the border in the North. What then? Redeploy all the forces back to the south, and then what? The second that is done, the Russians can simply threaten Kharkov again! Then what? Redeploy back to Kharkov again?
This is a checkmate position.
Ukies are saying they will bait Russians into attrition war, how ? They have shells deficit, they have outnumbered Rus in Harkiv 5 to 1 in men power. Stop talking crap it sounds ridiculous
yes it's 6000 Russian's vs 30k Ukies meanwhile Russia is making gains in the east and farming Ukraine in Vovchansk with FAB's Ukraine falls for the same trap everytime
Willy, the comparison with the Taliban is not very valid. The population of Ukraine under "Russian occupation" is not really hostile towards Russia. The people in Ukraine can easily swing one way or the other. There is no guerrilla actions or sabotages in Crimea since 2014. No similar actions in Donbas, Luhansk. Compare that to Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam. Most of the Ukrainians are abroad unwilling to fight because they see not much sense giving their lives to live in corrupt Ukraine vs being part of Russia. Russia will probably take territories that always voted pro Russian and make sure that the rest rump Ukraine is dysfunctional enough that it never be a threat to Russia. They will not go to the places they are not wanted. That is why your strategy of defeating Russia with constant nuisances will not work here.
Willy isn't particularly familiar with the events of 2014 leading up to the invasion. He's another zogbot drowning in CIA manufactured copium. Hopeless.😒
As a person from themost civilized country in the whole universe 🇺🇸 i can confirm Ukriane has already won this easily
That is a very bald statement. GDR wasn't much of a problem for the Moscow but you can't say that germans are easily swing one way or the other. The western Ukraine Kiev inc. will be hostile toward Russia. So basically Kremlin will gladly finish this war with what he gets at the moment, probably thinking about Odessa only
@@johnwi-l_l-iamsf3763 nikka, you don't even know what a woman is. Most of all you have a president that sharts himself.😒
@@DarrelX-im2hb
Can't you grasp that Germans are not Russian or even Slavic ?
Your comparison is ridiculous.
Ukraine is full of ethnic Russians, mixed families, Russian speakers and Russian sympathisers who hate the corrupt Zionist oligarchs cabal illegitimately in government ?
Millions have fled the country before and during this war.
Those left have lost husbands, sons and fathers...fighting for the benefit of Zelenskys gangsters , US hegemony and BlackRock, Goldman Sachs Monsanto etc.
The truth is now pouring out.
It won't be long now.
I actually had to laugh when he said Ukraine need to drag the war out so they can win 😂😂
One thing i wonder though is how much choice do the Ukrainians exactly even have when it comes to narrative driven strategy.
Because at this point, literally the only reason their war effort has not completely collapsed is because the west keeps feeding them weapons, intel, training and funds. And the west needs results to show to their people, or support for the war effort suffers. Which in turn means that Ukraine has to keep up the apperence that they are winning, even when they are clearly not. Or they risk losing support from the west.
Strange, are you sure that's not the Russian strategy?
I'm sure it is.
Maybe I'm mistaken.
I’m sorry, but the fact that the Afghans defeated the Soviet Union is bullshit. With 15,000 to 1.5 million casualties and despite the support of Afghan terrorists (Usama bin Laden, for example, the future of the "Taliban" and "Al-Qaeda") the United States did not defeat the Soviet army there. Just the traitor Gorbachev abandoned his allies - the legitimate government of Afghanistan and sold and betrayed the Soviet Union too. Not so long ago, we watched Americans leave Afghanistan, and they were defeated there, too? Can we find out what the US has lost over the years in Afghanistan, how many tanks, planes, people, and so on? No one has been defeated by the Afghans; indeed, this long-suffering country has always been only a playground for the great Powers because of its geographical location. The big guys would kick each other and replace one with another, and the Afghans would rush under their feet just trying to survive. Due to this, there is still a basically tribal system, it is not even the Middle Ages. The Soviet Union tried to shed light on this chaos, building roads, schools, hospitals and universities, Afghans did not grow opium poppy at all. But as we know, it is now possible to drive even the more enlightened and educated societies and peoples mad by supplying arms and money. In the name of democracy.
Each day the number of dropped FABs increase, FAB 5000 in the works. Making fortified positions in the cities won't be possible very very soon
Hey bud, thanks for the analysis.
I agree with you about Ukraine not being able to attrit Russia but on the other end, time is not on Ukraines side either since Euroeans and Americans alike are starting to lose interest and the Russian version of events is getting traction among people. Since February this year the EU pledged 50bn and US 61bn and then another 1,5bn and then another 50bn at the peace conference. This does not include European nations pledging separately, I know Sweden gave 10bn over 3 years and another 1bn in arms right now and there are many others.
This cant go on, its ridiculous, something between 160bn and 200bn transferred from western taxpayers (who are experiencing diminishing living standards) to Ukraine in less than 6 months.
One more year at most, then we will start seeing riots if our governments keep doing this without even asking.
Might get back on the other comment where you asked for a dialogue, started writing a reply but it became an essay. Can I send you an email? Whats the addy plz.
Cheers buddy, keep it up, you look great btw
With all that money spent, I wonder if the land could of just been purchased. I know stupid comment. I guess someone is getting rich from selling stuff and can afford to influence the politicians. It just looks like a proxy war as usual between East vs West. The West would love all those resources, I'm guessing and the east wants the us hegemony to die off. Brics as an alternative is looking more viable.
The whole of the West has buckets more money than Russia.
And we don't like Russia. They are a bit nasty.
You should be able to get willys email via the channels homepage.
@@TheGreatAmphibian Thanks, Im a dummy.
@@hoomanostovar Good luck!
im waiting see how willy explains it once russia win
He'll probably go, well .... Russia won.
Yep.
Sounds pretty reasonable.
Seemed super obvious from the relatively low level training/new recruits and limited number of troops/armor that Russia did not expect to make it that far in on the Kharkiv front. They only wanted to draw Ukrainian troops to that area so Ukraine can’t build up any reserves. I keep seeing stories about Ukrainian conscripts that don’t want to fight saying they will defend but not attack as well.
"Hey, Willy, how many days do you think you could survive in this war?"
No shit. And it’s just the beginning, there is a lot of equipment being moved near Belgorad, hundreds of armored vehicles including tanks and artillery.
I have to laugh every time I hear 'territory for time'.
Time do do what? Help is not on the way. Every day is a greater disparity. Time to cede more territory before admitting defeat? Time to lose the last vestige of a workforce that could help the country recover? Time to demonstrate to everyone who did not get the memo that the Kiev regime cares nothing about the country or it's people?
There you go again. the facts are quite different..who saus Russians are losing more troops in this sector? 😂😂😂😂
I definitely believe they were baited. As they were in the 2023 offensive, bakhmut adiivka an various other settlements across the frontline. It just wasn't that visible because there were ukranian air defense at the time.
I don't know this comment will be deleted or not, but over two years of fighting ukraine went into a lot of battle head on where retreat or at least asymmentric guerilla warfare would been strategically and tactically way better.
In order to operate a guerilla war successfully you have to have a civilian population that partially supports you, After 8 years of Kyiv repression this is not the case. This is as much a civil war not just Russia ukraine something Willy and the west forget
In the former territories of Ukraine, the population is now more pro-Russian than in Russia itself. Greetings from Crimea.
Launching attacks in the civil population and then calling them occupiers probably cost them most of their support in Crimea
Honestly, you have come up with the only strategy stupider than the one zelensky is using. It’s like the Germans trying to counter D Day by waiting for a French uprising against the Allies.
@@championknife Considering that the Ukrainian government now literally refers to the civilian population in those territories as "occupiers", i am not surprised.
Surel the clever Russian idea was to get America and others to say yes fine use our weapons in Russia. Smart eh. 😂😂😂
I think guerilla tactics would be problematic in eastern ukr, as it relies heavily on local support…
BUYING TIME FOR WHAT WILLY!
WHAT THE FUCK ARE THEY BUYING TIME FOR!
"Actually, the whole story is about Global Hawk and
MiG-31 in the video, to which I can only
add that there were two passes. At different
speeds. And everything turned out only the
second time, when we accelerated to 2.3 M.
This is the first such case in the history
of aviation, as far as I know. At such
heights and speeds, no one, no one, has ever
"met".
The MiG-31 was chosen as the only
aircraft that can perform this
task from the entire fleet in
service with the VKS at such an altitude.
The pilot and navigator of the MiG-31 790 iap 105 sal
received the "Order of Courage".
The crews are preparing for new "meetings
.
Ukraine needs to do same as Afganistan? Turn into a stoneage ?
The Afghan tactic wont work here for Ukrain and their paylord. For they want those territories and resources, but the inhabitants will not leave. And so wont the troops as their Russian brothers protecting them. So they need to take it back if they want it. The other tactic just makimg the Russians create a bigger buffer. Best would have been for this war to never have started. But who would not have none of that? The ones that bought the coutry and those that sold it, that are the last to die, if at all?
Long Live Tsar Putin 🙏
Long Live Dictator Zelenskiy❤❤❤❤
@@mbrofoc 😂😂😂
Tsar Putin? I suppose ignorance makes the World very simple to understand.
Get help
He is god.
Has General Willy got anything right so far? 😂
Just another ignorant opinion looking solely at territorial gain. Prior to this northern offensive to create a buffer zone, Russia was eliminating about a 1000 Ukrainian cannon fodder every day, now that has jumped to 2000 and will only increase with the introduction of the FABulous 3000.
This comment section warms my heart. The masses are waking up
Its called astroturfing.
@@Snek-zz9sj don't get me wrong. Plenty of low IQ gullible people around. You're fantastic proof of that. Remember to your boosters champ 👍
Russians are chess players.
You are using the same title over and over again to fool the algorithm, the question is, was this always the plan?
Ironically, these alarmist clickbait titles are meant to excite... but have become so repetitive they are having the opposite effect.
Caught in a trap
No turning back
Cause I hate you too much baby
Z in the chat!
You begin to understand Russian military doctrine. Besides creating a buffer zone for the Belgorod region, luring troops away from other fronts is a clear goal. The Russians created fortifications just behind the front lines to retreat to and let the Ukrainians break their teath on. The Russians can count on the full cooperation of the Ukrainians, as the Ukrainians reliably react as the Russians want, repeating the same errors over and over again.
Ukrainians fight media war, so they predictable in this, and Russians created strategy to abuse Ukraine's unableness to stop fighting media war first and physical war second
This operation has been a clusterfuck for the Russians.
@@brianonthewater By what metrics? Objective info shows that with minimum froces, the Russians trapped and pinned down 30'000 Uki's that cannot be used elsewhere. This is a factor in multiple Russian advances. Thus, it is a clear Russian success.
Ukraine need to satisfy the media ops and propaganda.
No. Unless you have Ukrainian flag bedsheets. Seriously what news are you following to even think that?
Efforts to big up Ukraine is like polishing a turd.
20 cents each or 6 for 1 dollar, Willy’s suits.
That's cold
@@luyandamgaba3937
Correction - he's cold. Sitting around in his parent's basement with no suit at all, wearing just his skid marked skivvies and a pair of socks with holes in them
Nah he suits this colour, reminds me of a British Army officer's uniform from the secondworld war; if the tie matched in colour, anyway. If you don't like his sartorial sense, maybe give him some pointers, unconstructive criticism doesn't help anyone
@@Andy_Hinnersit's Australia, he's unlikely to be cold even in Aussie winter, sir
@@jamesgornall5731oh don’t worry, it’s constructive.
What is important is that whether a trap or not, Ukraine is using NATO doctrine. In short Ukraine will win in that trap.
😂
You trying spin russian mistake as it a 4d chess move plan it hilarious 😂 🤣🤣🤣
You trying to spin everything Rusia has done as a mistake... As any bot would
@@OleDiaBolebut they make mistake after mistake😂
@@MathyBoonenThen I guess Ukraine is easily winning right now, right? RIGHT?
@@Alexey-kf4wr neither is russia
@@MathyBoonen you actually think this is a stalemate? Are you being serious? Lmao 🤣
Ukies trying not to fall for another meatgrinder challenge (impossible)
That's assuming the analysis was right.
That's assuming your prejudices are right.
Bro, you have so much style ♥️ love it!
I think it's right that Russia is trying to expand the front, although it's not clear if they plan to withdraw. Given the fortifications, perhaps they are planning to create strongpoints which are heavily supported, in order to extend the front-line without sustaining the casualties that manoeuvre warfare would generate. That is, if they just want to pull AFU troops away from the "ATO" frontline, then they don't necessarily need to advance, they just need to increase frontage, which they can do just by creating little salients like this.
And when the next emergency happens on a different front? Well then you can push again...
It's a trap, wait for accurate fab 3000
Does not need to be mega accurate, the over pressure blast wave is vast.
@@maryginger4877 Indeed. Russia may focus more on "longer range Fab3000" where they can easily deploy safety and may reach deeper behind enemy line.
Without knowing more, it currently appears that this was an operation designed to create a new pressure region for Ukraine to commit regional reserves so as to disadvantage other local embattled sectors, maybe also to create a new target for munitions otherwise targeting important facilities in native Russian areas.
It's very possible that they met with unexpected initial success, which resulted in the large move forward and possibly the visceral Ukrainian reaction.
Either way, from a logistical perspective, it seems like a mistake for Ukraine to burn resources to retake this region; this war will end at the negotiating table and this region should be very low in priority when compared to the seaside regions.
In general, Ukraine has indicated a severe lack of focus in defensive operations, striking here and there but never really commiting significant resources to crippling a particular region or enemy capability, at least apart from air defence to some degree and only recently.
I believe this lack of focus and tendency to cling to every centimetre of soil is the greatest Ukrainian disadvantage right now, has been from the start.
It's a War logic you're talking, while the Money logic demands Zelenski and others to burn out as much resources as possible in order to demand and launder more. On the other hand, money laundering requires time, so war shouldn't end too soon.
Yes Willy, this is the next Afghanistan.
But this time, the invader builds defensive works as they go and they come from right over the border instead of over the ocean and/or through massive mountainous terrain.
The Soviet Union left Afghanistan shortkly before it lost the military-economic cold war and collapsed.
While the cold war is as hot as it ever was now, there are no signs of Russia collapsing now. Quite the opposite seems to happen with half the world beeing FED up to the point of actually trying to get rid of their dependency on the USD for trade. China is now the factory of the world and its hunger for energy, food and raw resources is massive...
This war aint over soon. The good news is that this gives the real Afghanistan a chance of recovery and actually progressing on an economic and social level... Until the gaze of the super powers fall on it again and the next proxy war happens.
Afghanistan won the war, and the cricket.
Willy, could you make a video on Dennis Davidov please?
Why would Willy do a video on parallel Universe and/or fairy tales 😂
Hahahah.. That would be fun
Come on now Willy, Preston Stewart, Denys and that Combat veteran reacts, I believe his name is Paul. They are all part of the same CIA mud puddle.😂
Dennis is delusional and no military expert
Straight from the YT sidebar: "Ruzzia will have to move out". Right, and always the "clever" z letters.
The guy is a total joke, made even more hilarious by his draft-dodging.
So Verdun is maybe a good starting point in explaining the evolution of attritional war as described? Not getting caught in your own 'trap'? Resources are precious, wasting them on rubbish optics is a very bad idea. Makes a lot of sense.
Which is why Russia traded ground and has not deployed large numbers of soldiers
Verdun.
Now we're talking.
Blah blah blah blah.
Don't stop.
Blah blah blah blah blah.
@@bumble-g2j Very insightful, your years of military service were not wasted lmfao. =)
Do you think Ukraine will be able to field robot soldiers (controlled by advanced AI) to make up numbers before this is over? Metal grinder assaults by Ukraine.
Police get equipment and weapons first used by the military, usually a few years later. So expect intelligent drone swarms doing everyday law enforcement (and other policing of the general public) within a few years.
You don't win a war by losing the centre. Even if your win both flanks and this is shown in WW2, the Vikings had the same ideology. You smash through the centre then you exploded out.
The Southern offensive by Ukraine has the same concept, to break through the centre, then to attack the flanks.
The only reason you want to take the flanks is when the centre is a struggle and you need to out maneuver the centre, but because the line is so long, there is VERY limited ability for maneuver warfare.
WW1 THERE WERE NO FLANKS!
How to win modern war is not in some historical book.
Your fighting against commander that have THOUSANDS of the most difficult battles raging from the dark ages all the way to the middle ages.
Get that through your tiny little brain.
That your reading a book about war.
Fighting again people who have been fighting wars as commanders since they were children.
Commanding hundreds of Calvary, to thousands of spartan pike men to launching ICBMS and even getting in the pilots seat of F22s and dogfighting with SU57s.
Ukraine CANT WIN!
Because no one, no where, has ever defeated these children who grew up commanding militaries over 1000s of years of military evolution.
You just an old man clinging to his books like a woman clings to her pearls when the bad man comes knocking.
Fact the Russian Army from 2022 to 2024 although larger an the initial force of2022 and now better trained equipment and experienced. Ukraine 2022 to 2024 completely decimated by the Russians. Of the 700k troops (450k reg 250k res) Ukraine had in 2022 90%of them are either dead or permanently unfit for active duty.
The Afghanis did win the war.
Only because the Yanks decided to pull out. Progress was being made . The Taliban's influence was slowly being eroded . Unlike when the Soviets were there . The Yanks only had to deal with turban sandal wearing fighters. Which hard enough as they all Carry weapons and it's hard to distinguish friend from Foe without having to worry about worry about a third party.
I believe had another 10 years perseverance and Afghanistan would have been liberated.
The difference is Russia would keep Ukraine but america would never keep Afghanistan
Russia: “Let’s distract the Ukrainians by loosing thousands of our own troops, dozens of tanks and APCs, destroying one of the few cities we’ve actually captured, and eventually an embarrassing withdrawal“.
Yes, that’ll work.
Ukraine: " we are not corrupt country"
west: "So why are you loosing this war, when you say Ruzzians are bad soldiers and we give you our western weapons ,training and info/satelite,etc?"
Ukraine: "we need to throw some people in jail, coz they are too corrupt, thats why we are not winning...but dont worry...when thkse peolle get i jail we will winnn....just send more moneyzzz😂"
OMFG give it up, the fighting retreat was what i said to do in the opening stage of the war. They still cling to this strategy, you don't conduct fighting retreats when you out number the enemy 5:1, which by June 2022, they had 1 million men, the Russians arguably had about 150,000.
Yes when caught by surprise you want to by time, a fighting retreat is required to slow down advance.
But its two years later...
The person who told them to organize the fighting retreat is fighting with the Russians because of political decision made by Ukraine which means Ukraine cannot win the peace.
Which makes it pretty easy for a peace keeper to choose the best path to find long lasting peace...
To compare Ukraine's ability to bleed the Russians with the Taliban defeating the combined west you would need to gift the Ukrainians the Hindu Kush.
This will turn into a FAB "party" a contest for air superiority.
If not, the trenches won't move much.
....
At present, Russia lean entirely on FAB...
I’m liking a lot of Pro-Ukies popping up in here, I like the different opinions. Unlike garbage Propaganda channels like Denys and other Pro Ukrainian channels on RUclips, I think Willy welcomes you and won’t censor your comments.👍💪
I think the last point of the video is salient. If the Ukrainians fought more asymmetrically (like they did in Sumy and Kiev in 2022) it would have drained Russians resources. In direct engagements, like Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Adievvka, the cost has been high for Ukraine even if they inflict significant damage on the Russian forces.
15:25 I disagree: the difference between Afghanistan vs. USA and Ukraine vs. Russia is that in the former, the burden worked because the US is democratic country. While in the current conflict, Ukraine is the democratic country [it's could be debatable, taking into account that currently the rights of citizens are severely limited, but still], so are you really sure about the side, which will break under the pressure?
AFU falls for traps every time.
Listening to Putin should give you a clue to Russian strategy. He said, "We are not trying to take Kharkov". It was a battlefield "stretcher". It's obvious that a country with more population would do this lacking a large standing army which was the case with Russia. It had to be attrition.
afgani tactics wont work in Ukraine
because when US/USSr went to Afgan the mind set of a soldier is entirely different from an afgani common man, culturally , linguastically.
But in Ukrain eventhough they claim they are different they were part if a same system for years. Terrain is similar , culture and language is similar (i wont claim same ) this helps creatinf local support. Why no regular attacks in Occupied Kherson. For the people just rulers changed didnt affect their culture or language so most of them co-operating in afgan it was different.
But if ukraine can do series of partisan attacks inside Russia it may make difeerence
fighting a partisan war with regular army make sense when most of the general population is against. In this case i dint think thats the case. In Easter ukraine out of 4 people in one family 3 may support ukraine but 1 supports russia that is enough to thwart any partisan plans.
If the defence lines had well prepared, Russians wouldn't have gone to that area. Of course, Russians will go whereever the weakest points are. I know that you have high hope for Ukraine, but it is laughable when you blame on official corruptions again and again.
🤔You keep regurgitating the same 'war theories' crap every time the Ukrainian Army gets whooped.
I totally agree, Willy! I don’t know how Ukrainians hasnt called up men they have to draw them out with time and they’ll have to do it anyway eventually if they take Kiev might as well start now when you have a better Frontline and better than gorilla warfare, let’s hope they wake up soon! 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇨🇦🇺🇦
It’s likely both and unclear who is taking advantage of who.
Russia’s initial attack was good for them. It was to distract Ukraine and get them to defend area’s with low defensive works and draw reserves away.
But then the West gave the go-ahead for use of many of their weapons on Russian territory to target the weapons and staging grounds there. This was a big blow to Russia as it wasn’t just unprepared for it, it also meant the missile strikes it did from the region could now be targeted and destroyed rather than fire freely.
On top of that Putin made claims about what territory it would capture, and he would lose face if he failed in that. Giving incentive to throw in more people and weaponry than they should into a disavantaged situation.
Problem is that Ukraine has already shown itself to be too prideful to lose territory too. The current attacks could potentially be bait to make the Russians keep pouring troops here rather accept a “temporary” static defense line and use forces elsewhere. But it’s just as easily that Ukraine simply is making a big mistake pushing too hard where they should have tried to bleed Russia more and safeguard their own strength. It could even be both.
I heard the argument about Ukraine doing an Afghan style fighting. It won’t work for Ukrainians. Two nations speak the same language and have the same culture.
If the Ukraine didn't learn from history, especially the battle at Kursk between Germany and Russia, then they ran directly into a trap.
The Russiand build strong defensive positions and the Ukrainians are attacking.
The attackers will loose vast numbers in an attack against fortifications.
Poor nafo bots
the problem is terrain and culture. Afghanistan was mountainous and inaccessible with a fundamentalist islamic culture. Ukraine is flat and the Donbass wants Ukraine's armed forces evicted, so insurgents will have little support and are easily found.
One aspect of attritional war that the Russians are very good at is digging fortifications. They even have specialized units that do this.
This does make them very difficult to throw out of defensive positions.
I can't help but feel that the Ukrainians are likely on the loosing side of this equation with these counterattacks.
You're the most depressing person around. When was the last time that you gave SOME credit to Ukraine?
Nope, only bad news here.
PR, which is what had decisively established itself in the western and also ukrainina space, enforces Ukr to accept the attritional style of warfare, exhausting its resources. The definition of victory here makes it for Ukr. impossible to achieve. Either the definition will need to be adjusted or defeat accepted. Sooner it happens, earlier the bloodshed is over. PR does not win battles, editing of the wikipedia neither.
Willy…how come the obvious inability of Russia to stop basic drones is never talked about? Seems to me that these drones are devastating Russian assets on Russian soil…never did I believe this could never happen.
I have to agree here. The vovchansk/kharkov front seems to be a misdirection to pull troops from other areas. Rus hadn't made a truly concentrated push there. I think they know ukr will counterattack soon and are just digging in in areas that are likely to be assaulted.
The bigger the front is, the better it is for rus given their manpower advantage.
Spend and episode just critiquing russian forces you have so much material last you months battle by battle. Afghanistan was invaded by britain several times without any success the by soviets and coalition. Its geography and fighting nature is a nightmare they war among themselves like so many areas but give them a common foe they arent going anywhere but neither were Vietnamese, name the african country whether colonized by portuguese, french, dutch or whatever. They are fighting for there existence thats the nature of resistance the occupiers can always be waited out where the desire to resist exists.
Bro, you are missing some basics.
Porussians want to being the fight to Kharkov so industrial potential of 2nd largest city is gone as this would force civilians to leave and refugees not return.
You said Ukraine brought troops to unfortified positions, but no fortified positions can be better fortified than city is a fortification already. So Ukraine used Vovchansk as a fortified trap for them. Trench is not better then city. This is not a mountain path they protecting
You say that Ukraine should adopt the same tactics that Afghanistan used against western forces for 20 years until they wearied and withdrew.
Trouble is that Ukrainians do not live in the areas that Russia occupies, ethnic Russians live in the Donbas and Crimea, and many ethnic Russians also live in Karhkiv and Odesa.
No occupation forces can win land if they do not have the support of the people who live in that land, Korea, Vietnam, Cyprus, Kenya, Aden, Ireland, South Africa, Afghanistan, Cuba, Lebanon Syria, Iran have all expelled forces that the population did not approve of from their countries.
Ukraine failed to dominate the Donbas and Crimea even before the Russian invasion because the local people living there did not want to be Ukrainian.