Are House Prices Still Overvalued? - Do Prices Need to Fall
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
- A look at all factors to understand whether house prices are overvalued.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:40 House Price to Income
3:16 Mortgage costs
5:20 Why are Prices Not Falling?
7:53 Role of Wealth
10:25 Supply
11:52 Conclusion
► Please SUBSCRIBE!
► UK Economy - ruclips.net/user/economicshe...
► Global Economy - www.youtube.com/@EconomicsHel...
ABOUT
-----------
► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
► Cracking Economics. www.economicshelp.org/shop/cr...
► What Would Keynes Do? Amazon amzn.to/2xShqq4
► Economics Without the Boring Bits amzn.to/48T1hA9
It is difficult to make exact projections for the housing market as it is still unclear how quickly or to what degree the Federal Reserve will reduce inflation and borrowing costs without having a substantial negative impact on demand from consumers for anything from houses to cars.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Natalie Noel Burns who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Natalie Noel Burns up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
A house is a place to live . People seem to have overlooked this fact.
it can be used for whatever purpose the buyer wants.
@@MalcolmXpat yes, that’s capitalism for you. And I agree with you, I myself have a second, investment property I’m hoping to pay off in the next 10 years.
The issue is uniformly the lack of affordable housing for ordinary people.
Supply and demand keeps the prices sky high, and property continued to remain a good investment for the last decade.
At the same time, in many areas, especially in the south, people are living in overcrowded conditions and some people are also suffering from exploitation by greedy private landlords (respect to the good landlords, I know there are many).
Bottom line is, we need more housing that’s affordable, and if demand goes up due to to those who buy houses as investment in the hundreds, Edward has a point to some extent too.
@@MsJustice4everWe need to prevent landlords and companies from buying too many properties, strict regulations to not only prevent your non corporate landlord from holding more than a certain amount of property, but to force companies to sell off their owned houses to non corporate landlords.
That will dramatically reduce house prices and rewrite the gouging we've seen for the past 2 decades, the only potential issue is that the companies will lose a tremendous amount of private wealth, but considering the economy will be stimulated by a new wave of the average person buying houses that may not last very long.
@@MsJustice4ever you cannot build fixed affordable housing unless you force the seller to only sell at fixed prices. You would need local authorities or government to be out of pocket.
If you have a mixture of the Central bank having extremely low interest rates and printing fabricated currency forcing prices higher and then a supposedly free market allowing this price volatility....you can't keep housing cheap
In the old days ....it was a big man in a big house.....ruling over the crappy hovels and their serf like residents ......the trend is heading back to that disparity
The thing I find mot baffling about all of this is why we don't take the issue more seriously as a society. If people are not starting families because of the cost of housing and childcare, that becomes a dead end really quickly.
We can just import replacement labour is the government view
We have to wait to see what labour do, i cannot wait to see these corrupt Torys out of office but i like to think i bring a balanced view to my out look in life having voted for both parties in my life.
Without sounding dramatic given where the UK is and the UKs current course is headed we need a radical radical reshaping of many policies, ideally someone with a vision for the country in the next 50 years ( a whole generations worth of vision) we likely need to go through even more pain to achieve this but this is where a real leader pulls together the vision. we'll have to see what starmer brings, but i do feel he won't be up to the task, still better than the shambles that has been the last 14 years.
Because people are fundamentally selfish and cannot see past their own desires. The fact we are where we are despite the people responsible having children who are horrible affected by these issues is depressing. Plenty of people think "well, if you can't afford children, don't have them". They don't even consider the fact that they managed to afford 2-3 children on a single income when they had their family. They don't consider the fact that when you need 2 adults working full time to afford a family and any standard of life and at least one of those salaries is largely sucked up by childcare there is an issue.
The government is responsible for housing policy. They’ve failed to meet their home building goals for years, causing this crisis.
Someone on minimum wage will NEVER be able to afford to buy a house. It would need a joint effort of four people seeing as they would need to pay rent in the interim and who is going to wait a couple of decades. UK house prices are crazy and with our level of population increase and the feeble rate of building there is no hope for the majority of young people.
People on low incomes could never afford a house unless they where living in Council house, using old data is meaningless .
I agree with you, but also with Jon-ie4li. Minimum wage has never been enough to buy a house, and unless there is a huge unemployment crisis, never will be. And if that happens, homeownership is the least of our worries.
There is a cheat code for lower income individuals. In your early twenties to late twenties, live in a house share that is close to work. Whilst there, be very frugal and don't have a car. Max out a Stocks and Shares LISA every year with a global index tracker. In theory, over a ten year period, you should have just under £70k.
Before you all criticise me, this is what I personally have/am doing and my wage is below £30k
from April minimum wage will be £11.44 (over 24K full time) and a two or three bedroom house can quite easily be found in the UK (mainly north of London) for as little as 100K-140k, to be it doesn't seem out of reach.. or am I missing something?
@@MalcolmXpatLack of jobs where houses are cheap.
People should check out Gary's Economics. One of the only people saying house prices will eventually sky rocket far beyond what they are right now, and that guy get a lot of stuff right.
Tax the richest ❤
If you are not wealthy, then life is difficult/boring/rubbish. Good video btw.
In the south, my council claims they’re building affordable housing in this new estate. The cheapest house there is £380k, and they call that affordable 😂😂😂
That’s nothing new unfortunately.
They calculate the prices based on full market value and drop that by a certain percentage, then call it affordable.
Many people in the south have council rent fees of close to £800-£900 pcm for 2 bedroom properties. Even that’s not affordable with the current wages many people have, unless universal credit/ housing benefit is being utilised.
Very interesting, thank you!!
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very important and informative content cheers Frank 😊
Is it me or does it seem like the whole overpriced property market value could be fixed by applying a limit to how many properties a person can own? If each person can only buy 2-3 properties, a lot would be forced to sell and there'd be a lot more supply. There is absolutely no need to own more than a maximum of 2-3 properties in my opinion, other than for pure financial gain. I used to be an estate agent and know there are people who own over 20 properties buy-to-let - this is the problem. Also, foreigners should have to pay a premium for properties in countries they don't live in - either that, or they need to actually reside in the country and contribute to the economy rather than just profit, whilst UK residents are left homeless.
That is a decent idea not bullet proof though.
As far as my knowledge goes, people who own so many houses don't register it on their name, but they register it to a company they own. Meaning legally its a company/corporate that owns these houses not an individual. Now how can you put a limit on a company/corporate ?
You are absolutely right about the foreigners though.
This would definitely help, also cutting down on foreign investment in general. However it won't solve the supply problem the UK is facing.
The title of this video is just to trigger people. The situation is quite simple, while there are not enough properties to go around there WILL NOT be a crash. The shortage has been getting worse and will continue to do so. We have falling birth rates yet with high immigration the problem isn't going away. Throw into the mix people living longer in their houses, foreign investors buying property for long term returns and the wealthy buying second holiday/homes etc. If you're expecting a 1980's crash you'll be disappointed and if one were to occur guess who will be snapping the properties up at bargin prices only for the prices to recover quickly.
The statistic of the median partner income x 4 equaling the average house price; plus the social demographic of young women earning the same as young men completely explains affordability and why prices are at their current level. Fascinating.
Another great video. I do think the housing situation can be boiled down to Demand > Supply, and will stay this way for the foreseeable future.
See the agruement does not make sense in Scotland at all. Property numbers have in last 20 years increased by 15%, population has increased by 8% over the same time period. Therefore more supply yet value has increased by ~210% over the same time period, yet inflation is about ~55% over that period.
So supply demand does not make sense. This is very over simplified but indicates there is a masive bubble in this market and people view on house has changed over the last 20 years.
You could add wage growth to the above and disposal income but that wont help the supply and demand agruement, lots of people are overstretched and it will go bang at some point as most people are only invested in the property market and treat there home as an asset, but if it goes bust there are lots of losers.
If look at history that has happened, one just happened last 3 years in China. Happened to most of europe in 2008 but main mention to Spain and you seen a speculative bubble correct we have yet to go back to the mean trend but it will happen. Its in thanos words inevitable.
we need to bring down wealth inequality so wealth is more evenly spread and we dont have the few with all the money driving up asset prices out of the reach of the many. And start building council homes so we dont have to rely on the whims of the market for such a vital national necessity
Inheritance barely gets a mention. My parents left a substantial estate and my daughter was also a beneficiary, as well as ourselves. However, we still gifted her a substantial sum when she married for house purchase. Better for the money to go to her rather than a nursing home when we get old and decrepit.
What will you do when you're old? Self check-out?
My thoughts exactly and this is the approach I’m taking, I’m prioritising to accumulate enough funds to help my 2 children with a deposit as soon as they are old enough and (hopefully) get stable jobs/income to qualify for a mortgage.
@@duncanbananatyne3890 I don’t know about the OP but I’m planning a trip to Switzerland as soon as my quality of life is bad enough so that my prospects are that I can no longer care for my own self without significant care needs. I have friends in care homes and apparently it can feel suffocating like a prison, not to mention that many people at that stage of life are in daily agony due to chronic illnesses and have zero quality of life. Quality above quantity. Each to their own.
And what are adults without an inheritance supposed to do? Run a crowdfunding campaign on the internet?
@@MsJustice4everwhat if the "hopefully" never happens? There is no guarantee of employment in current times, regardless of the person's skills and education.
Answers to the title: Yes, yes & will they fall? No, ultimately they'll keep going up. Do the government care? No, they're personally profiting off of it. Will the gov do anything about it? Yes, they'll make it worse.
Is it possible to see how many houses have been purchased as buy to let compared to normal mortgages. Every house I view, I am constantly meeting investors who pay over the odds and then flip them into rental homes.
The rich are buying up all the homes. This is why houses are so expensive. We don't stand a chance unless something is done about this.
House prices will keep rising as there are few assets for the wealthy to buy due to a lack of UK investment and houses provide multiple income streams from rental income and capital gain - more than other income streams like shares. Foreign buyers like the certainty of buying UK bricks and mortar which is more stable than some foreign investments hence the surge in London prices due to Russian money laundering having spill over effects in other regional house prices. Landlords with some decent loan to equity values will still extract nearly all income from low to middle income tenants and not be scared by interest rate rises into selling. We have a mini recession as consumption is falling with all disposable income being soaked up by house rental price increases - as long as people are still employed delivering meals for Deliveroo then incomes will be available to prop up the rental market. The bank of mum and dad will disappear however in the long term with the loss of the middle class when all income is syphoned off to the few sole owners of assets and when any middle class wealth has been lost to paying for end of life care - that's when a proper housing market crisis and unsustainable levels of homelessness will occur.
Well many English people and corporations have bought up most Welsh land and assets for centuries
People have been predicting a house price crash for most of this century. The chances are that we will continue on the same course as the last few years, house prices continue to rise but at less than the rate of inflation maybe for another decade.
Sadly, the biggest problem is the lack of supply. This is a combination of not enough new homes being built and people not moving as often due to lack of confidence in the jobs market, then there is the UK house building industry is not set up to build 300,000-400,000 homes a year, the planning system cannot deliver that level of planning permissions either and there are not enough skilled staff available to build that many homes (or at least in the way we currently build homes)
There are a million empty homes ironically
Believing that it is just a lack of supply is inherently false.
You think it is just individuals or families buying homes?
Not only do you have landlords buying up everything but you also have foreign corporations and other asset owning vehicles buying as investment units
The transition from a low inflation and low interest rate environment to the opposite will change this.
The biggest problem is rich bastards.
@@penderyn8794 that figure has been trashed many times over many years. It includes homes which are not fit for human habitation (IE should be demolished), homes which have a planning application pending (ie about to be renovated), those subject to probate or other legal issues (usually arguments in divorce proceedings), those where the owner is temporarily posted abroad amongst other things. Once you deducted all that from the 1 million number it is far more modest. Local Authorities have had the power to compulsory purchase empty homes for years but very rarely use them.
The upsetting thing is that governments (no matter whos in) wont do anything when housing developers (the ones making the big bucks out of the market) are donors
Remember people borrowed large sums at very low interest rates. It would be an economic disaster for property prices to fall and might actually impair banks loan books and lead to another banking crisis.
Considering that not so many people are cash buyers, I guess the graph that shows the avg. income / house price ratio, should also include the Bank of England base rate. Maybe at some point this ratio was 4, but if you could borrow at 8-10% after 20 years this might equal a ratio of 8 but with a very low interest rate.
The reason the market is stagnant is because, unlike 08’, Unemployment has barely risen.
While people are employed they’ll keep a roof over their head even if it means cutting any luxury and saving nothing. Once jobs go people will be forced to sell and there will be deals out there
Short answer - yes.
Long answer - yessssssssssssssssss.
The whole system has been manipulated to grant wealth to those that already own property and/or have money to buy property, at the expense of all the generations that come after and even those that own property as a place to live, and it's still broken for a decent chunk of those that 'benefit' from the current system.
My parents bought their house 24 years ago and now the estimated price is like 300% higher, despite bits of it being in disrepair and horrendously out of spec (poor insulation, bare flooring, inefficient boiler, etc), none of which they can really afford to fix/upgrade (e.g. their dormer window is held in by 7cm screws and luck). So they're ''wealthy'' in an unrealised sense, while living in a substandard house, and at the same time I can literally never hope to own a house or even a freaking flat in my hometown.
Nobody wins but the construction companies and the already wealthy.
Feels like too much of the housing stock is owned or about to be bought up by anyone but your standart first time buyer. Its a bit of a literal large scale monopoly game with a small portion of the players gobbling up the board. But even with that, it will be interesting to see what happens if the buyers that put all their wealth into bricks end up seeing stagnating prices when they are betting on them doubling every X amount of years
Need to keep up otherwise you will be renting all your life . Price wills always go up . BOE is independent can only put up rates so much not like 90s when it was under government.
UK prices are about 60% over valued. Lending, regime debt used to prop prices, narrow market. It's a ponzi racket, and there are proposals to bring in a 1% deposit in order to keep the ponzi going. Rumours suggest inheritance tax won't be scrapped, but the very consideration should have everyone worried.
Current price falls should not be viewed in numerical terms, because a 16% fall and 8% inflation, is a - 24% real value fall.
Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better. If you buy today the price will look like the bargain of century when you look back in ten years time.
@@user-hs5pr5bt1v you've no idea what's coming. By the late 2040s, the Sun will micronova. Could happen much earlier. 😎
Yes hugely
ive got a deposit for a buy to let.
should i buy now or wait?
you should wait until Christ returns
@@duncanbananatyne3890 don't mock he will return sooner than a 5 year fixed expires
Buy a van or motorhome!
House prices have always increased it just wages have not kept pace.
So why should property prices full to suite new buyers
Devaluing property means lots of people will be in negative equity.
Nominal prices are still about double where they should be. A decade of insane loose monetary policy by the BOE have caused this.
Housing affordability issues are measured by the selling price of land, which makes up on average 65% of rental incomes thus house prices. In order to solve housing issues the selling price of land needs to be zero with a concomitant effect on houseprices. It really is that simple.
The only way prices will fall is if you put up rates, to build enough homes will take years you need to build atleast 500k homes a year to have an impact on prices.
Rent has increased because of the off set of increased interest rates…. This is the primary reason.
and the Tories introduced income tax to landlords on every penny they receive on rent, the extra cost in taxes was simply offloaded to the tenant.
If I had to sum up the market in one word ..Bullish interest rates will fall and with it new increased price rises , supply and demand will fuel this ....in my opinion imperfect
You need to speak to Gary Economics. What about wealth distribution and QE?
Somone should warn house sellers in London that people cannot afford to buy, because the news didn't arrive here apparently
It's not just property that is to high cars,food,clothes,restrant prices infact
Every thing is to high or is it just wages have not kept up. We all know prices will never get cheaper so we must get our wages & pensions to
Increase our standard of living some how.😢😢😢.
Its not just house prices that is the problem. It is the issue of energy, food, health care, education that have shot up dramatically in the last 20 to 30 years. All while wages have remained stagnate. No wonder nobody wants to have kids.
Help to -Buy- Sell
Yep, high employment, the majority at 35k a year.
So if average house prices go back to 5x multiples
Average 3bed will be £350k
So currently that house is £450k in my area, with them selling for 5% less.
Thus at £425k ( House prices should fall 15 -20% ) to get back to £350k
Which would be the pre-covid price
The energy effectiveness of a house is also important. In Denmark you have to have a deposit of 5% then get a bank loan for the next 15% and finally a 80% mortgage which have various constructions.
There does seem to be an expectation in the UK that everybody should own their own home. I don't know why this is. In many other countries people don't own their homes only the wealthy do or those that have inherited homes or inherited money. Its simply not realistic for everybody to own their own homes.
"mean time to save a deposit has risen to 19 years".
But sir, you are showing a graph only going up to 2016 as evidence. It will likely be higher with current mortgage rates today!
wages are terrible. if you're considering having children , think carefully
Terrible advice. Without having children, there is no point in accumulating any wealth, including buying a property. We don’t take anything with us when we pass.
@@MsJustice4ever you'll be selling your property in retirement to pay for care as the system will be overwhelmed with old people
@@James-yl3kk nope. I’ll be booked in to Switzerland once I’m too frail to look after myself.
@@MsJustice4ever who's accumulating wealth atm? Most people i know are just scraping by paying for themselves. Having children is unaffordable for the many
That's why the birth rates are dropping, and they want people to work till they drop!
In light of the current economic trends indicating a potential downturn in the stock market and an impending recession, coupled with falling inflation rates, investors are advised to consider diversifying their portfolios. Exploring alternative assets such as gold and crypto trading would be a strategic move to hedge against the expected market volatility and inflationary pressures. This approach is crucial in navigating the complex financial landscape shaped by fluctuating Federal Reserve policies and the broader economic climate........Amidst this the insights of a knowledgeable guide like Linda Wilburn can be crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of cryptocurrency investments has been the key to understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends...managed to grow a nest egg of around 4 b,tc to a decent 21 b,tc in the space of a few months.
She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
Lindawilburn
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Linda’s trade signal service.
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary.
Linda Wilburn strategy has normalized winning trades for me and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.
Creature from the waxworks.
house price has fallen? where ? all i see on the news is that the market is on green xD
There is no doubt in my mind that over the next decade at least another 100,000 properties will be purchased by companies and extremely wealthy individuals, many of which will be overseas investors and many will be left empty.
Interestingly, in high demand areas like the south and near/in the capital, there aren’t that many empty properties as people are made to believe (especially if you disregard the high end ones ordinary people would not be able to afford to occupy).
An example of empty homes, in the whole London Borough of Harrow in May 2023 there were only 61 long term empty homes- but they were worth £33,550,000 in total.
The issue is uniformly the lack of affordable housing for ordinary people.
Cant compare to the victorian era or a single wage now that the majority of family homes are dependent on 2 incomes.
And a woman can no longer "choose" to stay home.
As a husband who's wife stays at home (to care for the children), I beg to differ. It hurts financially for sure, but you can't say that having a parent stay at home isn't a choice. Of course it is, you just have less money.
@@jimkirk4215 Me too and I consider it a price worth paying. But reality is compared to my friends, we are in the minority. My comment is about the market and facts are double incomes drive property prices because they can get a bigger mortgage that we have to compete against.
From a Department of Education report that has been sent out to all schools in England (Forget what the ONS says as its data isn't trustworthy). Analysis of pupil number projections shows the number of pupils in state primary and secondary schools is expected to fall by 46,000 in 2024 alone. But numbers will then plummet by another 90,000 in 2025 and by more than 100,000 every year from 2026 until 2030.
Overall, pupil numbers are due to fall 12 per cent over the next decade meaning there will be 650,000 fewer pupils in state education in 2030 than in 2020. It is estimated that there will be more than 713,000 spare primary places in September next year, and just 20,000 additional places needed to meet demand in the few areas with rising populations for the following year.
At the secondary level it is expected there will be more than 313,000 spare places and just 34,000 more needed to meet demand.
What this is saying is that there will be fewer children around in the future, so we may see fewer young people. Unfortunately, there is no light at the end of the tunnel as predictions elsewhere state that this is going to be a worldwide phenomenon with the worldwide population facing a rapid decrease occurring in 80 - 100 years in the future.
So let's put this into context, where I live we have had quite a bit of new housing being built over the last ten years, they built a new school, and there are three existing schools in the area, the new school has opened but has struggled with not enough children in its catchment area. In fact, The majority of people who have bought homes on the estates are Baby Boomers, aka Grandparents, and maybe a few Gen X who already have children at the other schools. What else is going on? In one of the other schools in the area, they have made a couple of redundancies due to falling school roles. In another school which for the last few years has been over-subscribed, they have just lost a teacher and will be losing a teaching assistant, plus a class. What does this mean overall, there is going to be a glut in housing in the future, and people who are going to get caught out will be the BLT market in fact I will say some are going to get badly burnt.
Old people and immigrants need housing too. Birth rates are declining, quite sharply, I agree - but overall housing demands are increasing very quickly as average life span increases and net immigration is unlikely to slowdown anytime soon.,
Old people living ridiculously longer thanks to medication are not going to put their house up for sale. That "glut" you speak of is no more than a fantasy.
Need to build 4,200,000 houses a year.
Yes, it’s now often not possible to buy at a reasonable age without help from parents.
I’m working my socks off to ensure that I can give enough money to my 2 children to get them on the housing ladder. In 10 years by the time they are 23 and 22 years old, I should be able to give each of them 50% deposits on their prospective accommodation. It’s regardless of house price changes because the money will come from a second property owned outright by me, if it goes up, that goes up too. If they have jobs by then they might stand a chance. The situation is dire.
Today in Dutch media; according to a bank the house prices will rise more in 2024 due to low rates of inflation and higher wages.
The reality is that almost nobody can afford to buy a house. Are these people so disconnected from reality or are they just playing the people (I guess it's both).
A planned:
- Restriction in supply to drive up asset prices and rents for the "haves" aka Tories
- Increase in net immigration post Brexit to get cheaper labour with less workers' rights into the economy and into businesses to drive up business profits and values. Again benefiting the "haves" aka Tories.
During the lowest interest rates in history the country should have been investing for the benefits of the majority. It has not, as planned, to drive up the inequality gap.
Money, wealth and power increasingly in the hands of the few. As planned and implemented by the Tories.
Thank you for the objective analysis and your well reasoned considerations.
there isbt a shortage..the problem is foreign owners leaving empty
Just build more houses. If houses are so valuable and they are all being sold so easilly why there is not thousands of companies building new houses. It should be a gold rush however it is not happening. So the why is not this happening is the actual problem in the housing market.
If tge ptce of building a house was to fall then maybe prices could fall. But materials, labour... all keep going up.
Smart builders go into buisness for themselves flipping houses.
Apart from great economic analysis, Can I suggest you consider voice-over work…. You voice sounds warm and super smooth…..: You could sell anything!🤔
10:26 we will most definitely see another scheme to "help" buyers that will prop the market up, add in the continuous migration coming here it's not getting any easier for us or future generations 🙄
Until you can get Carpenters and Bricklayers to work for a lot less and cut the costs of building materials prices will never fall, ever !
It would be very easy to release the property , just check deeply the russian and ccp chinese property .
Is this life, working like a donkey for years and years just to pay bills and try to buy a bunch of bricks... im renting as soon as my daughter leaves home im out, I'm buying a campervan working part-time and going to get some freedom
Buy property in foursomes like old days
House prices will NEVER fall in the UK...too much demand no supply at all.
I am a man and cry whenever Isee a for sale sign on a house in London knowing noway to raise deposit then pay astronomical monthly payments on meagre wage I am on..
Yes yes yes
As long as wealthy foreign investors are allowed to buy property in the UK, house prices will never drop.
You're SO right about the need for more introspective research.
Aggregate values are bullshit. Who owns what? Where did the money come from?
"Lie, big lie and statistics"
100% capital gains tax on second homes. That’s a start.
Never going to happen, too many important people in the political establishment has their wealth in multiple properties.
Additionally, it’s easy to find a loophole, people can just move into the property and make it their primary residence for a little bit. There is no official minimum time that a taxpayer needs to be living in a property to make it qualify as their principal private residence (PPR). It is dependent on the 'quality of residence', i.e. the taxpayer needs to show that they moved in and resided with a 'degree of permanence, continuity or the expectation of continuity.
So, it’s a mute point.
If house prices were unaffordable people wouldn't be buying them.
Without a doubt they are overvalued. Just look at the houses that you get in America for the price that Brits pay for a small box home.
Population up from 57m to 70m within a generation has created much greater scarcity. The elephant's in da room peeps.
House prices have historically been 4X household income. women starting work doubled the buying power of families as a mortgage had two earners and more security, except women also have babies and decrease working amounts. market will accept a DINK buyer as much as a nuclear family buyer, giving the market the DINK Rates and forcing people who would want families to postpone supporting the DINK economy....
Also 1 million people arrived last year. thats at least 500k houses. this years rate is looking similar. this creates huge pressure.
What do you mean by a million people arrived this year?
Women starting to work doubled nothing, because wages stagnated during that time.
A couple on minimum wage working 40 hrs a week each would be able to borrow 226k on a 238k property or for most of the country a nice starter home. In London the median wage is 44.4k suggesting a couple on average wages can afford a property of circa 440k. Build more homes I agree but to claim its unaffordable is untrue
Mike, there are 2 issues with your statement:
One is the deposit. Without deposit they can’t buy. And it’s quite difficult to save up for the deposit when people also need to pay sky high rents (not everyone is fortunate enough to live at home with parents for free until then, or get the deposit from their parents).
Two: you’re assuming that only people in stable long term relationships need homes or want to become homeowners.
It’s greater fool theory because no one cares what they cost they’ll still buy them because of the promise they’ll always increase in price.
Always increase let that soak into your head!
New gilded age, we need a new deal.
Something happed in the mid 1990s... wonder what.
Nothing happened. It is madness of 2001 of 125% mortgages that is the cause of this misery. Just bring in 10% rate and lets see how long this house prices would stay the same.
@@apeter86wrong
Tell me what is correct then and that you are also going to vote Reform@@leemarsden1846
You can spend 13 minutes spinning figures to show that house prices should not be what they are, but the reality is REALITY! They are the price they are because all the factors crunch together in a free market and come up with a price.
Unlike you, they do not miss out on a few key points you keep missing-
1. You wrongly compare average price and an average wage. People are not buying an average house! They buy a starter home and starter homes are affordable in 95% of the UK.
2. Half of buyers are not buying with a mortgage but just with proceeds of a house sale. So double prices and they will not care!
3. Just because one factor makes houses less affordable (like the rise in interest rates) it does not follow that the market will drop to meet that drop. If the fall it temporary the market shuts down for a year. There is no "need to fall" if a rise is around the corner.
I am not sure how you can say "A look at all factors to understand whether house prices are overvalued." when you miss key factors and clearly do not understand!
House prices will never fall because the Rich don’t want them too. How are the rich going to get richer if they can’t buy houses and rent them?
Probably don't spend a fortune on a crap house people.
Let's just get Liebour in, that should finish the economy off quite nicely & hit a reset button. No housing crash on the horizon, just a slow & steady decline as we potentially hit a depression in the coming years.
These averages are skewed by London prices. In some northern towns and cities you’ll find some of the cheapest property on planet earth. With the rates that builders charge just think of the price of building a house. How cheap do people want houses to be. If plumbers didn’t earn more than doctors we might have cheaper houses (sorry, not targeting plumbers, I meant just for example).
Doctors are criminally underpaid. plumbers can charge because they have free market economics and have to beat the material costs.
the houses aren't expensive its just the low wages
Kelly, a very substantial part of the house price is the land. It’s not just the building you’re paying for.
Also, houses in the north are cheap because of less opportunities for people and as a result lower wages. You can have a conservatory added to your house cheaper in Sunderland than in London, for a reason.
How cheap do you want a London plumber to work when they themselves have to survive paying London prices?
Immigration is not 'exacerbating' the housing crisis. It is its SOLE cause.🤔🤔🤔
Immigration is not the issue. Lack of house building and 0 percent interest rates. Do you even have an answer for why house prices went up 30% in the middle of the pandemic when the borders where literally closed?
I love how it's blamed on emigrants rather than reduction to house building in 1970s and 80s the councils+building societies+private property builders built 400k houses a year and now less than 200k and out of that councils barely built 10k houses 🏘 old council homes have been privatized through buyouts wonder why the houses are unaffordable 😅
But the population of Britain wouldn't have increased much without immigration? In fact it might even have reached the point of shrinking by now.
How dare immigrants pay taxes and buy houses even if most rent at 1st. Nothing to do with governments failure to insure the supply of housing meeting the known population increase.
Wrong.. Look at what QE has done. They are debasing the currency in front of your own eyes and you haven't even realised. Not saying immigration isn't a factor, but printing currency is worse. Been down that rabbit hole.
House prices need to rise so I can sell mine and get the heck out of this disintegrating country!
More seriously, what I have not seen spoken of is what people actually pay for their homes. The sticker price is one thing, what we end up paying over the lifetime of the mortgage is entirely another.
I hope not. I just inherited my parent's estate, and I need to sell it before the crash else I'll be stuck in this corrupt, woke s hole of a country for the remainder of my life, as an overtaxed, peasant/wage slave. I'd rather watch the country burn from a comfortable home overseas where opportunities are still bountiful and the cost of living still affordable and not greedflated.
seem to be going back up again unfortunately
ARGE THEY LOLOLOLOL 😂 TRY BY 50% AT LEAST YOUR EX COUNCIL HOUSE ISNT A HALF MILLION PROPERTY AND YOUR EX COUNCIL HOUSE ISNT 1500 A MONTH ONLY IN CLOWN WORLD
This video didn’t tell us anything 😂
Think the title off this is the most stupid thing ive ever read and written by someone who obviously has not got a grip off how hard it is for people in general especially young people in the Uk in these current times. Its like someone was Dennis Nielson a serial killer ? Answers on a postcard 🤔
House prices in the UK are still very cheap at global levels. Wages and economic growth is the issue.
What globe are you on?
🤦♂️🤣🤣
House prices in the Uk are 50%, overvalued!
@@andrewtaylor6737 I wish that were the case but the picture globally tells a different picture. The UK needs more than 500,000 homes and won't get there for a decade, or ever. The population will get to close to 80m as per the forecasts. Prior forecasts have underestimated population growth rates are still a historical lows and London remains the driver where it is now considered 'cheap' compared to other global cities. In my view the way to fix this is through productivity and growth to catch up. Until last year, income growth has been amongst the lowest in the OECD in the last 15 years.
@@duncanbananatyne3890 currently in Sydney Australia but a UK landlord. The UK has more than a decade of property growth ahead of it, London is now considered inexpensive in global terms. Regional towns like Northamptonshire an absolute bargain.
@@Billywoo12 I hear what you're saying but I'm sure the Remoaner's would disagree, they think the Uk will be an economic wasteland & know-one would even entertain living in such a country. Globally & for now prices remain high, but with a potential economic depression around the corner... things could change very quickly.
Don't forget the Uk has an election this year & many other elections across Europe, the future has never looked so bleak.
house prices will only start going down slightly once boomers start dying on mass and the immigrants aren't coming in as much as they used too. but it will just keep going up.
I came to the UK on 2014 with £400 to my name. I was 24 at the time. Now I own a home and have a family. What's your excuse? Stop moaning and start thinking about solutions
Thanks. I look at that negstivity and i am starting to buy a house. That drops me down. Like I must leave Uk and go back to Lithuania. Its so stressfull. Somewhere else the grass is greener.
Houses in 2025 🚀
Really,Why ?
@@richardlongmuir8348 Rich people.
@@duncanbananatyne3890 😂
Yeh, rich people want a 3 bed semi in crap holes like the midlands & the north! 😅😅
@@andrewtaylor6737 😂😂😂fair
Are they overvalued? Dumbest comment ever
nobody cares. the last thing you need now is debt.
Thanks for the content !!All we need is the right advise on how to invest in crypto and we will be set for life , I’ve made $25k from trading last month regardless of the market conditions
Same here , with my current crypto portfolio made from my investments with my personal financial advisor
I totally agree with you
@fedrickmason6799 wow you must be like a ninja.
A lot of people still make massive profit from the crypto market, all you really need is a relevant information and some < professional advice. ‹ it's totally inappropriate for investors to hang on while suffering from dip during significant
Let’s see what £5k will do for me
Thanks for the info