Yeah, I remember how I first learned the easiest way to debunk the win rate fallacy while watching a video by BKC of competitive Pokemon fame arguing against the importance of win rate. In the most of extreme example of how a Tier 0 meta skews those ratios significantly, Snorlax is used in 100% of both OU and Ubers tier teams in Gen 2(GSC), this forces it to have a flat 50% win rate, since every winning team with the Pokemon is going to also defeat a losing team running it, making win rate entirely pointless as an evaluation criteria there. And that little bit about "win ratios don't matter" aside, building for Blind Second unironically puts you at an advantage in a Bo1 specifically, since you're at a significantly higher chance to go second when the majority of players are fighting for a flat 50% chance to go first, and thus can't possibly get to their optimal starting position more than half the time against others contesting for it on average(making tournament grinds with a lot of "going first" builds running around extremely high variance in particular). But even in a best of 3, the going first player has to make a difficult decision against Blind Second players between trying to go first again when they lose a game and usually hoping they open an unsearchable card they sided in(generally some kind of floodgate or high impact hand trap), or forcing their opponent to go first and hoping said opponent didn't just side in ways to make their win rate going first much better, which is something a backrow heavy deck like Labrynth is EXTREMELY good at doing. And a "going second" deck like Sky Striker gets MUCH better at going first(in Master Duel at least, TCG delayed Camellia AGAIN) even when running a bunch of Board Breaker spells and Hand Traps now that one one of their new potential starters can use dead Spells as a discard outlet to special itself, and if stopped after doing so can combine that with a Normal Summoned hand trap to still potentially set up an initial play line with 3 Spells in GY(especially after factoring in things like Talents/Thrust/Called by/Crossout/Eagle Booster that can disrupt additional hand traps while setting up more Spells in GY). A few tweaks like a good Trap to use as a Thrust target(I've found both DDKC and Trap Stun both work pretty well since Evenly Matched is generally the biggest deterrent to going first with that deck, and sitting on Camellia with DDKC set leads to some interesting situations that make it a lot easier to survive a Turn 1 opening that went badly than you'd expect), and a bigger focus on Board Breakers with utility going first(Droplet aside, Autonomous Action unit can steal discarded Hand Traps to use as special summon fodder, while on field monster theft cards can take Gamma and Nibiru to set up an Azalea in a pinch) mean even a going second deck like this has tricks it can pull to either hide the fact that it's a going second deck for longer, or take on other going second decks more effectively(like say the mirror match). I've also seen Mikanko decks that boast a decent win rate going first by including some useful setup pieces to take advantage of how little extra deck space their "main" strategy needs, to set up plays that complement their heavy use of Equip Spells through cards like Isolde/Infernobles and an XYZ Armor package. You generally want to have this kind of flexibility in Master Duel in particular since going second decks are actually a lot more popular there than in the Bo3 formats, so you can't assume losing the coin flip will put you into an advantage state as often as it would on paper(the odds are still in your favor if you Blind Second, but the more popular that gets the less likely that'll hold true and you'll need contingencies for getting "out seconded").
Wow comment of the year! Such a great comment and alot to unpack. As such detail was put into this I will pin this so that it doesn't fall down in the depths of the comment section. I love the analysis of Snorlax with 50% win ratio. I feel like that has alot of similarity to maxx C in yugioh master duel because both sides are usually playing it (93% played atm iirc) They should have the stat of win ratio applied only if the other side isn't using it. The green mikanko card equipped with an mikanko equip spell is very hard to out for alot of decks. They need underworld goddess or non targeting removal which many decks don't prepare for.
Lmfao! I do love them - because its great outside the box thinking and players that find success truly made very tactical, mathematical & strategic decisions in the deckbuilding process. They went against the grain and found success so maybe that's why i like them so much :D
When you think about it, forcing your opponent to go first can benefit you because they can’t OTK and if you’re breaking boards then you force them to use all their resources to break the board with two cards (Evenly and Dark Ruler) then set up your board and they won’t have many hand traps left to stop you, especially if you recycle resources.
This idea of prioritizing fast decks is super popular in MTG Arena, people put heavy prio on their deck rinishijg matches quickly when it comes to climbing the ladder. Its the main reason why mono red decks generally dominate the ladder their games taking 3 or 4 minutes on average while other decks with kuch higher win rates like azorious control take more then 6 on average. I was surprised when I switched over from mtg to yugioh to not see people prioritizing really fast decks that much.
I'm surprised we don't see more people Zerging the ladders. It was very interesting when Master Duel first came out Bots were using this chain burn OTK deck that had like a 30 percent win rate and easily stopped if you just ran 13 Extra Deck cards, but everyone was losing their minds because it was so rampant lol and refused to put in 13 ED cards.
Responding to the title, technically on a population level a 50% win rate deck could accumulate more total wins than a 60% ratio deck just by representing a higher fraction of the player base. For example, a new and currently underrated rogue deck optimized solely to beat a Tier 0 deck could have a higher win rate than the current primary meta deck, but still accumulate far fewer total wins in any given event where it is underrepresented. Also the start of this video sounds like you’re about to explain gerrymandering lol
Ah yes, that is a fantastic example! On a kind of related note, I always wanted to see a bunch of people just get together and agree to bring X "rouge" deck to a tournament and then have everyone lose their minds and thinking that the group knows something they dont about the meta and see how many people unrelated to the group now bring X deck to the next even because they were influenced by the masses and the sheer quantity of them means some of them mathematically have to top even if the deck had something as low as a 25% win rate. On the topic of Gerrymandering: Lol yeah i figured I would use gerrymandering as an example of how even 30% can beat out something as big as 60% in a 2 out of 3 scenario to kind of mirror my point with deckbuilding on how smaller win rate decks can aim to take onto he big guys. Here, the decks "Gerrymander" themselves by purposely giving up 1 game to have a stronger and better chance in the other 2 instead of trying to win all 3 at once. Very interesting. :D
Hey, I am quite new to this channel and love watching your videos. They immensely help with deck building. I would love to see a video where you summarize your general tips you gave throughout videos, without going deeply into the explanation. Thank you!
I'm kind of a bit amazed by how you always come up with such ideas. I mean doing statistics and calculations is one thing. But to even come up with ideas like that, to actually do these counter-intuitiv things. Respect.
Thanks! I literally read and view so much statistical information for a bunch of sources because I find it so much fun. Speaking of which - I was on a Quora forum looking at some yugioh statistics and I believe I saw you posting there! It was your Pfp and same name! Your like a huge expert on there! :D
@@JessePerezStrategyGaming Am I an "expert" there? I guess, I'm just sometimes bored. And then I answer (often times yu-gi-oh related) questions - of lately even what appears to be spam bots who ask countless times the almost exact same question. Like "What Kaijus should I play in Fur Hire?" "What Knightmares should I play in Fur Hire?" And I think to myself "Just think for yourself!" Sometimes, I don't know why I am even answering them. Who is the bigger fool? The one who asks these questions? Or the one (me) who is even answering them? But, to confirm. Yes, that's me. I guess there are not that many people who have a profile picture combining Saitou Hajime (from Rurouni Kenshin) and Ichimaru Gin (from Bleach). Even though, they go so well with each other. LOL But, it is indeed a nice occasion to look at my quora statistics: I have appearently currently: 2 shares, 45 comments (received), 61 upvotes, and 66,695 views. (All this appearently in the about 5 years since 2019 or so, since I'm on that plattform.) I don't know, if that makes me an expert. All the views just add up from countless posts with mostly just a couple each. The answers that I'm regularly reading myself have like millions of upvotes or so. -> But, man I noticed I wrote like a lot of answers. Most of them appearently about Yu-Gi-Oh. But, I have to say, answers heavily about the "current" YGO meta are very quickly outdated. But I guess, Quora is a nice way to easily (with low entry barrier) express oneself wordily about a favorite topic and thereby order one's own thoughts. Guess, I'm more successful over on Quora than here. Ha.
I'd like to go into this in a more practical approach: Let's say you are preparing for Continentals after INFO, expecting that Snake Eyes Fiendsmith is going to be the best deck. You can go and check statistics, ie by DB Grinder Videos, and assume the win ratio of the decks (probably not enough data available to be sure). So to adopt, you probably go for a going second strategy. Your deck needs the following key points: 1. The win ratio against Snake-Eyes should be pretty good already (if you have a strategy with 30% win ratio you probably won't make it a viable strategy) 2. You should be able to play a going second build You then chose a deck and start adapting it to beat Snake-Eye Fiendsmith. If you haven't played the deck for a long time you probably experience a learning curve and it is hard to take the data and compare it. Once you are good with the deck, you can start gaining data by playing. You probably need many weeks of intense testing to gather the data. After that you can make a conclusion: 1. The deck performs well and you chose to take it 2. The deck does not perform as good as you preemptively assumed and you discard the idea If 1. is the case there are several outcomes: a) Most players take the deck to continentals and you perform well since you catch people off guard b) The Meta changes and people build their decks differently and your deck does not perform against the changed meta (e.g. a different endboard and your boardbreaker does not work so good anymore) c) The deck stays the same but there's many tier 2 / rogue strategies (in 12 Rounds you play 6 Rounds against not the deck you prepared for, and your win rate against those decks is not as good, so you lose 4 rounds and don't make top cut). Worst case is even, that you lose Round 1 & 2 and have to fight through lots of rogue decks So all in all, there are so many factors that make it very difficult to apply this principle in practice. If i miss something out, please let me know 😊
THIS is a great summary and great comment! This happens to me all the time on Master Duel because I play a lot of board breaking decks. The best example I can give is I am constantly taking "ULTIMATE SLAYER" in and out of my board breaking decks. When Lab, Floo, Horus were popular and flavors of the month i had to take it out. When SuperHeavySam, Snake eye, Pendulum, Tear, and Kash were metas I put it back in. There is alot of ebb and flow and your right you have to make some educated guesses and meta calls. Interesting if your meta calls lose to the tier 2 decks etc, it looks like it creates some sort of Rock, Paper, Sissors where Counter Meta beats Meta but loses too T2 decks and meta beats T2 but loses to Counter Meta. So its a very unique and fun paradox very similar to the Gamma Paradox i mention Psy Frame gamma video. Great comment & thanks for watching!
Hey friend, I liked the thoughts in this video. However, even as someone who loves going second, I have run into some issues -the time argument when in a tournament setting isnt always the best measure because if going second, you must let your opponent do their plays, meaning you would have to add the 5 minute snake eye turn one onto your then otk. Sometimes you need to see the endboard or see your 6th card to even determine if its correct to scoop or not. I think the time disparity wouldnt be as great as presented. - while labrynth going second is an interesting idea, I'd argue lab is one of the few decks that actually has in engine going second options (like butler and cuclock) that most other decks do not posses and end up having to go with more generic options which can hinder their consistency. I don't think there are as many decks that can generically play going second cards, as many will prevent the otk such as darkruler or evenly, or work against the deck's own goal (unable to special ecclesia if opp doesnt control more monsters, ancient warriors unable to use effects cause opp has no monsters after breaker)
Great comment I love to always get another opinion especially when it comes to going second builds! I find when going 2nd there are 3 kinds of styles you cam run. Break and Control. Break and Stun. Break and OTK. What kind of style do you play or do you have a diffrent philosophy when going 2nd?
Although I find myself wanting to play go second and otk, I run into the issues I said above where I feel like many going second cards either actively work against that plan or hinder my consistency. I have not dabbled in going second stun, but I think my main second deck, swordsoul, could be considered control. It still hits the same difficulties unfortunately. I think there is definitely math to building to go second simply from the fact that since most people choose to go first, and if you win a flip you go second, you probably have a better shot of getting your preference than the 50/50 going first. However, I feel like generic second cards available just aren't the complete answer where the game is at rn. I think lab is an exception due to having in engine options and naturally playing cards that can answer boards without large commitment (not needing normal summon or 'opponent has more monster'-like conditions to activate), and I hope as more archtypes release, we have some that are more tuned like that rather than decks that just want to go first or just brute force extend/handtrap when going second. Thanks for reading my essays lol, I'm glad to speak to someone also looking into this line of thinking.
I can't believe he had the guts to play 3 phantasmay's, and 3 nibs in the main deck and won. That build would literally have been laughed at in so many locals but it won the whole YCS lol. Blind second lab, i didn't even know that lab COULD even be a good go 2nd deck let alone win an entire YCS.
My guy found a way to tie in gerrymandering & Yugioh 😭 never thought I’d see the day! Also GOING SECOND BEST PLAY STYLE LETS GOOOO! I will top with Blind Second Yubel and make you proud brother 🤝
There is a whole thing using Logarithms - but basically if the WR is Super High there wont be much varience with the top WR think if a 99% win rate deck goes against a 85% win rate deck the 99% WR will still have about a 95% chance to win its very fascinating. But if 2 numbers are exactly the same i.e 65% vs 65% win rate then it becomes 50/50. Its hard to show fractions on the comment section but if you drop by the discord I can show you the formulas.
Nice one. I saw the profile of the Lab player. But we don't have The Black Goat or 3 furnitures on MD, so have should we go about building a blind second Lab deck?
TBGL is like a targeted imperm for a card that didn''t come out yet so you could replace TBGL with an imperm & transaction rollback but then your using 2 cards for the same effect. You can use other really strong traps like Daruma Karma Cannon. I've seen people use transaction rollback with the trap cards "elemental burst" as an AMAZING combo to wipe the opponents WHOLE board whenever they wanted. There's a lot to experiment with and many possibilities.
@@JessePerezStrategyGaming Yeah, I run Daruma at 3. I think it's the best non-archetypical Normal Trap card in the game. It can just auto-win some games on its own. I've also tried the Burst combo which requires Marrella and Rollback, but it takes up a lot of space in the deck. For the WCQ, I made a Lab version that focused on tricking my opponent into meeting the requirements for Witch's Strike and just blew them out. It doesn't always work but when it does, it's game-ending.
Even though the Lab List was a nice example it was NOT A YCS, only a regional AND it was a small one below 100 players. So really cant compare that with a real YCS
They are similar and often mean the same thing. But the term "Blind" means that if you win the coin toss/dice roll you will actively choose to go second "blind" into whatever deck your opponent has. While some people might use the phase my deck plays well as a "go second deck" indicating that if they win the toss they will go first but can still play fairly well and even have a few cards in main deck like evenly, super poly, book of moon, enemy controller, or something like that in case they are made to go 2nd.
Blind second will actively choose to go second, usually as part of an OTK setup involving big beaters or stealing monsters/gaining ATK and resources from an established board and the extra draw. If you DON'T want to blind second, that means you have a build that CAN work going first. The new Sky Striker cards allow that deck more flexibility to actively choose to go first, and "Board Breaker" builds of Snake-Eye on Sky Striker stuff will also generally choose to go first since many of their less searchable go second cards are quick play spells that can still get them advantage if they make a board. More complex builds of Mikanko will try to utilize Infernoble and/or Armor XYZ cards in order to make plays when they win the coin flip or get forced first against a "Blind Second" deck. There's often trade-offs to be made when you're building a "go second" deck to include going first capabilities, as you won't typically be able to use certain cards like Dark Ruler no More as anything but discard outlets if you decide to go first with those decks, and might also need to run lower impact going second cards like hand traps in greater numbers, decreasing your potential consistency unless you're on-point with your starter/extender/defensive card ratios.
I need to update my Pfp! its me probably 10 years ago! :D I am nervous if i update the PFP no one will know its me :) i have some good photos I can go through and maybe get a more updated head shot
It wasn't just Labyrinth - his build was as far from a typical labyrinth build. and what's crazy when you analyze his w/l ratio he pretty much always lost the games he had to go first. So he sacrificed (gerrymandered) those games and by going 2/1 every match he still won. Very interesting.
![FIX this DECKBUILDING MISTAKE That EVERYONE MAKES [MATHEMATICAL PROOF]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/_Ia9pq9F4b0/mqdefault.jpg)
Yeah, I remember how I first learned the easiest way to debunk the win rate fallacy while watching a video by BKC of competitive Pokemon fame arguing against the importance of win rate. In the most of extreme example of how a Tier 0 meta skews those ratios significantly, Snorlax is used in 100% of both OU and Ubers tier teams in Gen 2(GSC), this forces it to have a flat 50% win rate, since every winning team with the Pokemon is going to also defeat a losing team running it, making win rate entirely pointless as an evaluation criteria there.
And that little bit about "win ratios don't matter" aside, building for Blind Second unironically puts you at an advantage in a Bo1 specifically, since you're at a significantly higher chance to go second when the majority of players are fighting for a flat 50% chance to go first, and thus can't possibly get to their optimal starting position more than half the time against others contesting for it on average(making tournament grinds with a lot of "going first" builds running around extremely high variance in particular). But even in a best of 3, the going first player has to make a difficult decision against Blind Second players between trying to go first again when they lose a game and usually hoping they open an unsearchable card they sided in(generally some kind of floodgate or high impact hand trap), or forcing their opponent to go first and hoping said opponent didn't just side in ways to make their win rate going first much better, which is something a backrow heavy deck like Labrynth is EXTREMELY good at doing.
And a "going second" deck like Sky Striker gets MUCH better at going first(in Master Duel at least, TCG delayed Camellia AGAIN) even when running a bunch of Board Breaker spells and Hand Traps now that one one of their new potential starters can use dead Spells as a discard outlet to special itself, and if stopped after doing so can combine that with a Normal Summoned hand trap to still potentially set up an initial play line with 3 Spells in GY(especially after factoring in things like Talents/Thrust/Called by/Crossout/Eagle Booster that can disrupt additional hand traps while setting up more Spells in GY).
A few tweaks like a good Trap to use as a Thrust target(I've found both DDKC and Trap Stun both work pretty well since Evenly Matched is generally the biggest deterrent to going first with that deck, and sitting on Camellia with DDKC set leads to some interesting situations that make it a lot easier to survive a Turn 1 opening that went badly than you'd expect), and a bigger focus on Board Breakers with utility going first(Droplet aside, Autonomous Action unit can steal discarded Hand Traps to use as special summon fodder, while on field monster theft cards can take Gamma and Nibiru to set up an Azalea in a pinch) mean even a going second deck like this has tricks it can pull to either hide the fact that it's a going second deck for longer, or take on other going second decks more effectively(like say the mirror match).
I've also seen Mikanko decks that boast a decent win rate going first by including some useful setup pieces to take advantage of how little extra deck space their "main" strategy needs, to set up plays that complement their heavy use of Equip Spells through cards like Isolde/Infernobles and an XYZ Armor package. You generally want to have this kind of flexibility in Master Duel in particular since going second decks are actually a lot more popular there than in the Bo3 formats, so you can't assume losing the coin flip will put you into an advantage state as often as it would on paper(the odds are still in your favor if you Blind Second, but the more popular that gets the less likely that'll hold true and you'll need contingencies for getting "out seconded").
Wow comment of the year! Such a great comment and alot to unpack. As such detail was put into this I will pin this so that it doesn't fall down in the depths of the comment section.
I love the analysis of Snorlax with 50% win ratio. I feel like that has alot of similarity to maxx C in yugioh master duel because both sides are usually playing it (93% played atm iirc) They should have the stat of win ratio applied only if the other side isn't using it.
The green mikanko card equipped with an mikanko equip spell is very hard to out for alot of decks. They need underworld goddess or non targeting removal which many decks don't prepare for.
This comment is better than the video
I love how obsessed bro is with going 2nd. But the math doesn’t lie
Lmfao! I do love them - because its great outside the box thinking and players that find success truly made very tactical, mathematical & strategic decisions in the deckbuilding process. They went against the grain and found success so maybe that's why i like them so much :D
When you think about it, forcing your opponent to go first can benefit you because they can’t OTK and if you’re breaking boards then you force them to use all their resources to break the board with two cards (Evenly and Dark Ruler) then set up your board and they won’t have many hand traps left to stop you, especially if you recycle resources.
This idea of prioritizing fast decks is super popular in MTG Arena, people put heavy prio on their deck rinishijg matches quickly when it comes to climbing the ladder. Its the main reason why mono red decks generally dominate the ladder their games taking 3 or 4 minutes on average while other decks with kuch higher win rates like azorious control take more then 6 on average. I was surprised when I switched over from mtg to yugioh to not see people prioritizing really fast decks that much.
I'm surprised we don't see more people Zerging the ladders. It was very interesting when Master Duel first came out Bots were using this chain burn OTK deck that had like a 30 percent win rate and easily stopped if you just ran 13 Extra Deck cards, but everyone was losing their minds because it was so rampant lol and refused to put in 13 ED cards.
@@JessePerezStrategyGamingAhh yes Dynamite FTK I still have around 12 cards in my Mekk Knight deck to this day 🤣
bro you gotta get into goat format, your mindset towards things is absolutely what's needed in that format rn
Nah, goat is way less fun for theorising :D
Responding to the title, technically on a population level a 50% win rate deck could accumulate more total wins than a 60% ratio deck just by representing a higher fraction of the player base. For example, a new and currently underrated rogue deck optimized solely to beat a Tier 0 deck could have a higher win rate than the current primary meta deck, but still accumulate far fewer total wins in any given event where it is underrepresented.
Also the start of this video sounds like you’re about to explain gerrymandering lol
Ah yes, that is a fantastic example! On a kind of related note, I always wanted to see a bunch of people just get together and agree to bring X "rouge" deck to a tournament and then have everyone lose their minds and thinking that the group knows something they dont about the meta and see how many people unrelated to the group now bring X deck to the next even because they were influenced by the masses and the sheer quantity of them means some of them mathematically have to top even if the deck had something as low as a 25% win rate.
On the topic of Gerrymandering:
Lol yeah i figured I would use gerrymandering as an example of how even 30% can beat out something as big as 60% in a 2 out of 3 scenario to kind of mirror my point with deckbuilding on how smaller win rate decks can aim to take onto he big guys.
Here, the decks "Gerrymander" themselves by purposely giving up 1 game to have a stronger and better chance in the other 2 instead of trying to win all 3 at once.
Very interesting. :D
Hey, I am quite new to this channel and love watching your videos. They immensely help with deck building. I would love to see a video where you summarize your general tips you gave throughout videos, without going deeply into the explanation. Thank you!
I summon myself in the comment section and activate my effect: 🤯
I chain myself to summon to the field, so we can get now super poly'd by someone.
I activate super poly to fuse both of your comments into mine!
@@That_Daily_noko I negate super poly with my gun
@@magicmagerx2649 you mean a finger gun right, this is the 4kids dub
"using techniques from politicians going back to the 1920s" IS THIS MAN ABOUT TO FUCKING GERRYMANDER YUGIOH?????
I'm kind of a bit amazed by how you always come up with such ideas. I mean doing statistics and calculations is one thing. But to even come up with ideas like that, to actually do these counter-intuitiv things. Respect.
Thanks! I literally read and view so much statistical information for a bunch of sources because I find it so much fun. Speaking of which - I was on a Quora forum looking at some yugioh statistics and I believe I saw you posting there! It was your Pfp
and same name! Your like a huge expert on there! :D
@@JessePerezStrategyGaming Am I an "expert" there? I guess, I'm just sometimes bored. And then I answer (often times yu-gi-oh related) questions - of lately even what appears to be spam bots who ask countless times the almost exact same question. Like "What Kaijus should I play in Fur Hire?" "What Knightmares should I play in Fur Hire?" And I think to myself "Just think for yourself!" Sometimes, I don't know why I am even answering them. Who is the bigger fool? The one who asks these questions? Or the one (me) who is even answering them?
But, to confirm. Yes, that's me. I guess there are not that many people who have a profile picture combining Saitou Hajime (from Rurouni Kenshin) and Ichimaru Gin (from Bleach). Even though, they go so well with each other. LOL
But, it is indeed a nice occasion to look at my quora statistics: I have appearently currently:
2 shares, 45 comments (received), 61 upvotes, and 66,695 views. (All this appearently in the about 5 years since 2019 or so, since I'm on that plattform.)
I don't know, if that makes me an expert. All the views just add up from countless posts with mostly just a couple each. The answers that I'm regularly reading myself have like millions of upvotes or so. -> But, man I noticed I wrote like a lot of answers. Most of them appearently about Yu-Gi-Oh. But, I have to say, answers heavily about the "current" YGO meta are very quickly outdated.
But I guess, Quora is a nice way to easily (with low entry barrier) express oneself wordily about a favorite topic and thereby order one's own thoughts.
Guess, I'm more successful over on Quora than here. Ha.
I'd like to go into this in a more practical approach:
Let's say you are preparing for Continentals after INFO, expecting that Snake Eyes Fiendsmith is going to be the best deck.
You can go and check statistics, ie by DB Grinder Videos, and assume the win ratio of the decks (probably not enough data available to be sure).
So to adopt, you probably go for a going second strategy. Your deck needs the following key points:
1. The win ratio against Snake-Eyes should be pretty good already (if you have a strategy with 30% win ratio you probably won't make it a viable strategy)
2. You should be able to play a going second build
You then chose a deck and start adapting it to beat Snake-Eye Fiendsmith. If you haven't played the deck for a long time you probably experience a learning curve and it is hard to take the data and compare it. Once you are good with the deck, you can start gaining data by playing. You probably need many weeks of intense testing to gather the data.
After that you can make a conclusion:
1. The deck performs well and you chose to take it
2. The deck does not perform as good as you preemptively assumed and you discard the idea
If 1. is the case there are several outcomes:
a) Most players take the deck to continentals and you perform well since you catch people off guard
b) The Meta changes and people build their decks differently and your deck does not perform against the changed meta (e.g. a different endboard and your boardbreaker does not work so good anymore)
c) The deck stays the same but there's many tier 2 / rogue strategies (in 12 Rounds you play 6 Rounds against not the deck you prepared for, and your win rate against those decks is not as good, so you lose 4 rounds and don't make top cut). Worst case is even, that you lose Round 1 & 2 and have to fight through lots of rogue decks
So all in all, there are so many factors that make it very difficult to apply this principle in practice. If i miss something out, please let me know 😊
THIS is a great summary and great comment! This happens to me all the time on Master Duel because I play a lot of board breaking decks.
The best example I can give is I am constantly taking "ULTIMATE SLAYER" in and out of my board breaking decks. When Lab, Floo, Horus were popular and flavors of the month i had to take it out. When SuperHeavySam, Snake eye, Pendulum, Tear, and Kash were metas I put it back in.
There is alot of ebb and flow and your right you have to make some educated guesses and meta calls. Interesting if your meta calls lose to the tier 2 decks etc, it looks like it creates some sort of Rock, Paper, Sissors where Counter Meta beats Meta but loses too T2 decks and meta beats T2 but loses to Counter Meta. So its a very unique and fun paradox very similar to the Gamma Paradox i mention Psy Frame gamma video.
Great comment & thanks for watching!
going second supremacy is real
I love me these going 2nd strats and decks :D
I'm here at Quick-Play Speed!
How!? I'm just baffled at this point lmao
Another banger vid, as per usual! 🔥
Hey friend, I liked the thoughts in this video. However, even as someone who loves going second, I have run into some issues
-the time argument when in a tournament setting isnt always the best measure because if going second, you must let your opponent do their plays, meaning you would have to add the 5 minute snake eye turn one onto your then otk. Sometimes you need to see the endboard or see your 6th card to even determine if its correct to scoop or not. I think the time disparity wouldnt be as great as presented.
- while labrynth going second is an interesting idea, I'd argue lab is one of the few decks that actually has in engine going second options (like butler and cuclock) that most other decks do not posses and end up having to go with more generic options which can hinder their consistency. I don't think there are as many decks that can generically play going second cards, as many will prevent the otk such as darkruler or evenly, or work against the deck's own goal (unable to special ecclesia if opp doesnt control more monsters, ancient warriors unable to use effects cause opp has no monsters after breaker)
Great comment I love to always get another opinion especially when it comes to going second builds!
I find when going 2nd there are 3 kinds of styles you cam run.
Break and Control.
Break and Stun.
Break and OTK.
What kind of style do you play or do you have a diffrent philosophy when going 2nd?
Although I find myself wanting to play go second and otk, I run into the issues I said above where I feel like many going second cards either actively work against that plan or hinder my consistency. I have not dabbled in going second stun, but I think my main second deck, swordsoul, could be considered control. It still hits the same difficulties unfortunately.
I think there is definitely math to building to go second simply from the fact that since most people choose to go first, and if you win a flip you go second, you probably have a better shot of getting your preference than the 50/50 going first. However, I feel like generic second cards available just aren't the complete answer where the game is at rn. I think lab is an exception due to having in engine options and naturally playing cards that can answer boards without large commitment (not needing normal summon or 'opponent has more monster'-like conditions to activate), and I hope as more archtypes release, we have some that are more tuned like that rather than decks that just want to go first or just brute force extend/handtrap when going second.
Thanks for reading my essays lol, I'm glad to speak to someone also looking into this line of thinking.
55% win rate DARK MAGICIAN deck sounds kinda wild but understand the logic!
ok just change it to Cyber Dragon
I could see it if it was Kash DM, but pure? Naaah, 55% winrate is fanfiction lmao
Keep speaking truth to power brother. Quality work.
That YCS example is legit mind blowing🤯
I can't believe he had the guts to play 3 phantasmay's, and 3 nibs in the main deck and won. That build would literally have been laughed at in so many locals but it won the whole YCS lol.
Blind second lab, i didn't even know that lab COULD even be a good go 2nd deck let alone win an entire YCS.
My guy found a way to tie in gerrymandering & Yugioh 😭 never thought I’d see the day!
Also GOING SECOND BEST PLAY STYLE LETS GOOOO!
I will top with Blind Second Yubel and make you proud brother 🤝
I am rooting for you! Lets go!
How very interesting, indeed. Thank you
I love this video! How do you set up the math to get matchup winrates? I'm a little rusty 😅
There is a whole thing using Logarithms - but basically if the WR is Super High there wont be much varience with the top WR think if a 99% win rate deck goes against a 85% win rate deck the 99% WR will still have about a 95% chance to win its very fascinating.
But if 2 numbers are exactly the same i.e 65% vs 65% win rate then it becomes 50/50. Its hard to show fractions on the comment section but if you drop by the discord I can show you the formulas.
Nice one. I saw the profile of the Lab player. But we don't have The Black Goat or 3 furnitures on MD, so have should we go about building a blind second Lab deck?
TBGL is like a targeted imperm for a card that didn''t come out yet so you could replace TBGL with an imperm & transaction rollback but then your using 2 cards for the same effect. You can use other really strong traps like Daruma Karma Cannon. I've seen people use transaction rollback with the trap cards "elemental burst" as an AMAZING combo to wipe the opponents WHOLE board whenever they wanted. There's a lot to experiment with and many possibilities.
@@JessePerezStrategyGaming Yeah, I run Daruma at 3. I think it's the best non-archetypical Normal Trap card in the game. It can just auto-win some games on its own. I've also tried the Burst combo which requires Marrella and Rollback, but it takes up a lot of space in the deck. For the WCQ, I made a Lab version that focused on tricking my opponent into meeting the requirements for Witch's Strike and just blew them out. It doesn't always work but when it does, it's game-ending.
You're the absolute GOAT
Even though the Lab List was a nice example it was NOT A YCS, only a regional AND it was a small one below 100 players. So really cant compare that with a real YCS
Is there a difference between just a going second deck vs a "blind" going second?
They are similar and often mean the same thing. But the term "Blind" means that if you win the coin toss/dice roll you will actively choose to go second "blind" into whatever deck your opponent has.
While some people might use the phase my deck plays well as a "go second deck" indicating that if they win the toss they will go first but can still play fairly well and even have a few cards in main deck like evenly, super poly, book of moon, enemy controller, or something like that in case they are made to go 2nd.
Blind second will actively choose to go second, usually as part of an OTK setup involving big beaters or stealing monsters/gaining ATK and resources from an established board and the extra draw.
If you DON'T want to blind second, that means you have a build that CAN work going first. The new Sky Striker cards allow that deck more flexibility to actively choose to go first, and "Board Breaker" builds of Snake-Eye on Sky Striker stuff will also generally choose to go first since many of their less searchable go second cards are quick play spells that can still get them advantage if they make a board. More complex builds of Mikanko will try to utilize Infernoble and/or Armor XYZ cards in order to make plays when they win the coin flip or get forced first against a "Blind Second" deck. There's often trade-offs to be made when you're building a "go second" deck to include going first capabilities, as you won't typically be able to use certain cards like Dark Ruler no More as anything but discard outlets if you decide to go first with those decks, and might also need to run lower impact going second cards like hand traps in greater numbers, decreasing your potential consistency unless you're on-point with your starter/extender/defensive card ratios.
Thank you Calculator. Also why does your Pfp not look like you?
I need to update my Pfp! its me probably 10 years ago! :D I am nervous if i update the PFP no one will know its me :)
i have some good photos I can go through and maybe get a more updated head shot
Thank you! Your comment pushed me to update the PFP. 😀
Jessemamdering
TL:DR Blind second cards, do a lot better going second.
You are the true mathmech circular
Damn
Is this the part of YuGiOh which people call copium pro max?😅
"He used Labrynth"
I mean, you could have left it at that and that'd be just as sufficient as an explanation as for how he won.
It wasn't just Labyrinth - his build was as far from a typical labyrinth build. and what's crazy when you analyze his w/l ratio he pretty much always lost the games he had to go first. So he sacrificed (gerrymandered) those games and by going 2/1 every match he still won. Very interesting.
1920s, my guy, that s*** still happens now