@@baosommurr4566 I mean knowing the hand probably factored in, but it's also possible he didn't realize how deep fransisco was. You could tell he was just thinking about mikes stack at first
There is one thing you didn’t mention and it is your relationship with other players at the table. There is a social aspect of the game for most people. If someone is perceived as being unkind that might become a negative for them. If the fun player for instance asks to run it twice and the pro says no, it might create a negative image socially. Of course this has nothing to do with whether they win or lose or equity, just that there is sometimes a social aspect that is overlooked in live games.
It can be used as a small strategy edge if people know you only go once, some are less inclined to call vs knowing you’ll always run it twice, flip side is maybe some get it in worse against you knowing you’ll go twice or let them always decide. It’s really small but more a perceived mental game strat aspect imo.
He didn't influence the action. The way I see it, people make it known that they "always run it once" to prevent draws from shoving on them. If, they took a flop and Marino said, I only run it once before Francisco acted to prevent a shove, and begged for twice after a shove, that would be shady. That isn't the case.
This convo happened for years on pocket 5s. It’s the same thing. Don’t waste brain power thinking about it. Instead, play around with different meta strategies for in game dynamics. “If I run it more then once, does the action player gamble more with me” “If I only run it once will it allow me to apply more pressure and run over the game” Things like that work when you put enough hours in to understand in game dynamics
Exactly, tyler! When I played poker for a living for a couple of years in the early 70s, I considered it a competition among people. Understanding how people react a necessity. As for the offer to run it twice after noticing the size of the pot, that seems to me an offer out of kindness. He is offering: "Do you want to increase your chance of at least a chop? A better chance to realize your low equity?"
So you really think that a seasoned player only realised how big the pot was during the discussion? Because that's what he said his reasoning is, no matter what that changes or not.
I don't think he did anything "shady." The bigger scandal should be that an alleged good poker player apparently called off 30 grand without even realizing how much money he was calling off, according to his own account of the events. Seems fishy.
Honestly the hate against him for doing it doesn’t make sense for another reason too. I’m glad you showed how the equity doesn’t change, but even if it did, who cares? Worst case scenario, Mariano thought one thing and wanted to run it once… then saw his opponents cards and wanted to run it twice. So what? Even if that would have given him a mathematical advantage, he still ASKED the other players if they wanted to do it. You’re not allowed to change your mind based on information given to you? People are ridiculous. Thanks for the breakdown Bart
@DubStylee running it twice cnahges the game completley. Just because the equity dosent change, losing 8 pots in a row getting rekt to varince instead of chopping 8 pots. Chbages the game completley. Even though these ”pros” wont admit it, people also play way diffrent when you can run it twice. I dont even get how thats hard to understand? Its a reason Everyone thinks youre a pussy when you run it twice, just like the highrollers stare at eaachoter, it matters how you conduct yorself, And if youre not ”scared” people wont fuck with you, its that simple
@@baosommurr4566 EV of scooping both isn't the same as the overall EV. You're ignoring the cases where it gets chopped. Overall EV is the same regardless of running once or twice.
I don't like running multiple times against certain players that I know will try and bluff more when they know u will run multiple times because they know they will get 2 chances to hit their outs and they can put you into some tough spots.
skipping all this mumbo jumbo math calcs, the fact that Mariano got to see the 2 Villains hands DOES in fact give him an edge. sure, it doesn't change the equity of his QQ hand, but it does give me additional info that he is far ahead of the two AKs since they block each others' outs. and with this knowledge, he can reduce his own variance by running it twice and not really worrying as much as being sucked out on, all the while still affording him a little protection in case an A or K does come on the flop.
He saw their hands and realized he was being laid a good price and could decrease variance while still maintaining a healthy edge. Shady? Not really, but a little sketch and definitely contrary to the image he cultivates. Cut him a break, he was playing 2/5 a couple years ago and this was a 100 dime pot.
This was *nothing close* to being even "a little sketchy". The only way it would be, is if Mariano *had the ability to make the decision unilaterally.* But he doesn't! Everyone has to be in agreement! It makes *zero difference* whether he changes his mind after the cards are face-up. This is VERY straight forward!
do you not account for the first board for card removal? how would that not change equity? if they are truly independent events, then I get it. but once the first board is out, there are 5 less cards that can be taken into the second board that are 100% known to be unavailable for the second runout.
@@mangohavoc6428 I did watch the video and the stats concept makes sense assuming the two boards are independent. But how can they be independent if board 1 removes at least 5 known cards from the deck? that would change the number of available cards for board 2.
@@Unhingedanduninformed imagine a heads up pot If the first board is favorable for player 1, the second board will be better for player 2 If the first board sucks for player 1, it will be better for him on the second run out
The pot is chopped by the number of times that they run it dude! If the winning player’s equity goes down, running it twice in a $1k pot it’s because that player has already won $500 (100% of half). This is one of the main reasons what the equities don’t change before the runs.
Bart doesnt mention in the situation from 4 years ago that the burn card was down on the first run before the player changed his mind to run it once...
If I remember correctly wasn't it that the turn card was being dealt when Harry changed his mind. And that there was a chance he saw it was a heart giving him the back door flush draw? I remember Bart not understanding it then and he still doesn't understand it now.
@@CrushlivePoker my mind is still blown that they didn't make them run it twice...in MD its part of the gaming regs (same in Jersey and PA) ...its obvious that other than a breach of etiquette, changing your mind before the burn doesn't change anything but they use burn cards for a reason.
Hypothetically.. if Mariano immediately said, “Twice,” then saw Francisco’s hand and changed his mind to “once”, wouldn’t that be super shady? It’s like he wanted to give not only himself protection against them hitting 1/4 outs but also them insurance. In my opinion going from “twice” to “once” is more off-putting.
*Everyone* has to agree how many times the board runs out. It makes zero difference whether one individual changes his mind after the cards are face-up. The only way changing ones mind would make a difference is if said individual (aka Mariano in this particular case) had the authority to make a decision unilaterally. But that isn't how this works. Is this really that difficult for some people to understand?
Are people getting worked up about Mariano changing his mind?! It’s OK to change his mind...we go from decision 1 to decision 2...every day. McDonald’s one minute, Chipotle the next. Relax everyone.
Did you not watch this video? It makes no difference whatsoever if he changes his mind in either direction. Running it multiple times has no impact at all on the EV.
Totally aside from the math, I kinda want to offer an entirely subjective view on this : I am 100% certain that Mariano would NEVER pull a shady move. Of course he might (like anyone) unintentionally make an improper move that by chance would benefit him, but I am equally sure that if he did this and realized it he would call himself out. IMO anyone who doesn't believe this of him is a poor judge of character. (BTW BART - you did a great job of explaining the more valuable OBJECTIVE view! Thanks for this.)
@@anarchyseeds4406It's been my experience in life that good people are very careful to pronounce judgment on others, whereas those who easily do so are often revealing an underlying assumption that OTHER people surely must have the same unsavory characteristics as they THEMSELVES have. IMO - a thought worth considering, my friend. Take care.
@@seanariamd9581 Are there any other positions and attitudes you'd like to attribute to me before I proceed? So I see you enjoy the standard strawman fallacy - hoping to score points by refuting a point I never attempted to make. Doesn't appear you actually under stood anything I said. But not a surprising display of cognition deficiency since you also show absolutely no signs of having understood anything that Bart took such great pains to explain.
Yup. Playing well above his means. If this was a 5k pot he would have never complained about HCL only allowing them to run it once. No casino that I know of let's you run it more than once if you aren't heads up. Not shady but a bad look for sure.
2022 and you're still having to explain the run it once vs. run it twice misconception. I feel like you went over this on Cash Plays some 15 years ago, and even then, it was an old discussion. Bart, you a man of patience
Great video, I want to add another comment but first one just wanted to ask if that graphic at the end (31:51) is correct? This implies there's no side pot, just one main pot? Should player C have less than other two players or the other two should have more? Or am I missing something? Just rewatched it and listened. I understand it's a side pot situation now but the graphics confused my dumbass.
It always boggles the mind when i ask someone if they want to run it once or twice, and they want to know what I have first. Whenever they ask that, I say never mind, just run it once then.
The people saying this is shady for him to change his mind from once to twice when holding QQ vs 2 AK’s don’t understand basic card removal and that Mariano is getting better than 1 to 1 in a spot he’s a favorite vs 2 players blocking each others outs. There’s a case to say it was potentially greedy/shady for Mariano to go the other way and say twice originally then see his opponents share outs and switch to once. If anything I think it’s giving his opponents more chance to catch the now essentially 4 outs vs one villain having another pair and the other having AK with 6 outs to catch a higher pair than Mariano. If anything it was due to pot size and wanting to reduce variance. It’s a great spot pre for QQ.
I am a dealer and at our room the house rule is if the smaller stack only wants to run it once and 2 or more players want to run it twice for the side, then the main pot only plays for the first run out. After the side pots are pushed, the second turn and river go in the muck and the hands are read again to determine the winner of the main pot. Very fair.
I'm so stunned that it took half an hour for short stacks to get it in with AK v QQ that I don't have the emotional capacity to react to the mob thinking that running it twice changes equity.
Numbers that are the same and end in a five are even easier. For 65 * 65 start with the last two digits which will always be 25. Then multiply 6*6 and add 6 for 4225 85*85= 8*8+8 or 72 and tack on the 25 at the end for 7225
I was watching the start of this video and was screaming in my head: "Bart is going to say there's absolutely nothing wrong with this, right..? Right..??" .. And then 'oof'. Yes, he did. Yes, he did. People are just idiots. It is what it is.. It's on them.
This is one big nothing burger. Literally, it makes zero difference in the outcome over time running once, twice, thrice or how every many times you want to run it. It just slows the game down by having more cards dealt, and evens out variance, but the latter only helps the people in the hand, and running more than once hurts everyone at the table, because they are not playing the hand. Fewer hands per hour equals less money. Plus, it seems watching it, that after he said once, someone said twice, and he was opening it up to twice for someone else, but even if that's not the case, even knowing all the card, it does not matter. Based on the lead, I thought he asked to have it run once, then AFTER losing asked to have it run twice, which of course isn't allowed, but the actual event is so much nothing it baffles the mind why anyone would get upset over it, or they are not winning poker players because they don't understand the basic of math involved.
It absolutley dosent make zero diffrence. Changes the whole game , the whole outcome of the game, how people play(even though they wont admit it). Youre just as beainwashed as the rest of the poker ”smartguys” dumb guys
I don’t care about the math involved. Mariano is a high stakes pro cash player and he knew exactly how much money was in the pot. The fact that he is saying that he realized after how much money was in the pot and then wanted to run it twice is a bold faced lie! We are not stupid here.
Excellent explanation but I doubt the keyboard warriors will care even if they could understand. This is the world we live in...sort of. I have great respect to those who open themselves up to the haters by putting content out there. Thanks for all you do Bart.
Bart, thanks for the math! I have never played anywhere close to these stakes and so maybe I'm off, but my gut reaction is that when the pot is this large, asking for twice is in part a gamesmanship move. Everyone seems generally friendly and while winning money is the goal, I imagine they don't want to possibly have a player get stacked and then leave the game. It's not necessarily a "feel good" moment. That said, how is going twice shady? He's AHEAD! Even without the math, the other guys are now getting 10 cards face up and 14 total cards out with the burns. If they are hunting for 4 cards, having twice as many out would be better and so, even though it's slight, they get a better chance to win or chop.
They want felt people (or themselves) and can accept the variance because they have the proper bankroll. They can also handle the tilt from the added variance better than their opponents.
A lot of it also is what Bart mentioned in the video. If you have a reputation for only running it once, it could reduce the aggression some other players might take with their drawing hands against you.
Preach on brother! I've had this conversation roughly 377 times, and it's like talking to a pet rock. An amazingly gigantic % of the poker gen pop are certain that who-has-what informs whether it's a good idea to run it once or multiple times.
I definitely agree with the overall point and it only affects variance, but at about 22:30 when you're talking about the AAQ22 runout Mariano would have lost to aces full of 2s not won. Overall great points though
I think he realized how thin they were drawing them decided to run it twice. But in the grand scheme of things, it didn't really matter. They all have to agree with it.
They were talking about running the side pot twice, so the main pot would only be distributed from the first run, the side pot would be run twice so no Mike X's money wouldn't be split if Francisco or Mariano won the first run and they chose to run their side pod twice, whoever won the first run would get all of the main pot and half of the side pot and whoever won the second run would get half of the side pot.
@@SoH_LaLa Yes but the dealer has been told that all parties have to agree to run it more than once and I wanted to explain why that is. The fact that they were not allowed to run the side twice is most likely a directive from Feldman to the dealers because the graphics cant handle it or a misunderstanding in the communication between Feldman and the dealer regarding "all parties have to agree"
You believe that he didn’t know how big the pot was when he just called an all-in… after you just credited him for the incredible trap Play? He would only be trapping him into that play if the pot, would in fact, be huge. Now I’m not saying he did something shady but I definitely don’t believe he didn’t know how big the pot was. Lol. I actually lead towards him realizing he was up against 2 overs so twice gave him a better chance to at least break even, especially since they were sharing cards. Unlikely he loses twice
I'm going to be honest. Even if Mariano thought in his mind he had an advantage because of the hands he was against, there still wouldn't be anything wrong. In Poker you are looking for advantage. If the opponents didn't know there would be a disadvantage, that is their fault. But Bart is right, no advantage anyway.
That's exactly right. Maybe he wanted to run it twice because the pot was huge or maybe he saw he was running against AK. Or both. It doesn't matter. He is entitled to ask it and they have the right to deny it. Mathematically there is no advantage other than there is less chance for him to lose all his money but there is also less chance to win the whole pot. It evens each other out.
All those stating there wasn’t fair play in this hand are entirely welcome to my home game, but I WILL be wearing headphones for the duration of your stay.
Mariano is a young, hard working dude who has built a channel and now a playing career from that channel and his coverage. He is by any poker metric hugely successful, and did it in a very short space of time, relatively speaking. Of couuuurse he's going to have heaps of people looking to tear him down, losers and mediocre small stakes tiny winners cannot simply be happy for him, they must shit on him to feel better about their own failures. Same goes for any industry, always the same lol
Bart, if the dealt cards on the first run were 22223 as you suggested then actually Mariano would lose, it would be four of a kind with the best kicker, which would be A, hilariously
@@nophun00 it’s just cause I was manually enter dead cards. I should have used 77778 or something too as that wouldn’t have decreased the chance that and ace makes a straight.
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 not disputing that. If the pot was smaller would he have stuck to running it once? Sounds like the size of the pot changed his mind.
5:27 When talking about having AA or KK here as a trap, I'm assuming this isnt going to be balanced and purely just used as an exploitive play. I'm probably just jamming all my continues here, player dependent. This is mainly cuz Francisco's range seems pretty capped after flatting the 3! So we can just jam anything here we want to continue with so we realize our equity vs the effective stack. Anything else played as a flat oop seems bad to me.
This wasn't shady, it's re-negotiating. What is shady are when some player wanting to only run it once when they have the goods, but wants to run it twice when they behind.
The house should like running it twice to keep the games going Less people go broke running it multiple times My casino got rid of plo cause people we’re going broke at the start of the month
Entertaining the trolls and degen simps watching poker vlogs that can't count to 2 is like drinking poison yourself to spite them, they wanted some attention and now they have their own CLP episode
I do wonder though Bart if the people that make these comments are even willing to listen to fact based arguments such as the one you layout here. Without getting political, we know that there are a lot of individuals who are just not interested in having their views challenged by reality.
It always blows my mind how "out to lunch" people are when it comes to running ot once vs twice. I've heard so many people say "you can't decide to run it once this time then run it twice next time, you have to be consistent" as of there is some kind of etiquette that everyone is supposed to adhere to. Of course there's the classic that I always hear: "why did you run it twice? You were ahead" or "why did you run it once? You were behind".
that is the etiquette because it speeds the game up, if you know both are two time players you run it twice automatically, if one only goes once, you can tell the dealer to go ahead and run it, instead of the run it twice version of the show down dance, the common etiquette even allows for someone who is normally a one time only player to go more than once in an abnormally large pot...which is what Mariano alluded to (even though I'm doubtful thats why he agreed to run it twice)
@@andymoiser4611 I refuse to accept this premise that you can't quickly choose once or twice whenever you want. You're introducing a completely different issue. If both players know what they want, you run it twice if they both say yes, otherwise it's once, end of discussion. I think we're saying the same thing at the end of the day, by the way. All the chatter and conversations that delay the game should just not be a thing.
I thought when Francisco said “we can run it for our money” he was asking for a double board for only the side pot between him and Mariano. Seems fair?
Unlike the situation between Garrett and Charles I agree with Bart 100% here. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind even if he did change his mind because he saw their hands.
Would love the feedback on how the short stack held the larger stacks hostage on their decision to run it multiple times. If I was Nick X and the ruling came down the whole table has to agree I would defer to the players that have massively more chips to decide.
all correct bart, but with all the equity breakdown etc you miss 2 fundamental things: 1. Mariano 100% new how big the pot was, 0 chance he just figured out 2. Its not about the equity that doesnt change for Mariano, its about people "feel saver" to run it twice because they are afraid of facing variance! thats a big factor why people run it 2. You will see pros run it 2 when they have AA. Its not the math behind, its the fear to run bad and lose. Mariano thought Francisco has sth like 10 10, JJ, and dominates him. Then he realized Francisco has 2 live cards. So he just got mor "scared", Thats it, nothing else was the case here. Was it a shady play?? NOOOO, not at all, why can people not change their opinion? Its all good to ask to run it 2 when you know the hand of your opponent. The problem i have is that he said he did it because he realized how big the pot was, could be, but it had be more to do with Franciscos AK. If he sees two 8s he 10000% runs it once. I promise you that.
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 absolutely. But it doesnt mean its unbeatable does it. If you have aa and opponent has kk, would you risk your entire savings just because you have him crushed. You would not
This video earns you one new sub. I might be considered a “Mario stand“ because I love the guys videos. That said, even I was suspect about this particular hand and his actions. In this video, not only do you dispel those suspicions, you made me much more poker intelligent. I appreciate you increasing my PI. I am locked in as a fan! Keep up the great work!
Hey Bart, what if he seen they both had AK and decided he would prefer twice because if he runs one board and loses, then will lose everything. But if he runs it twice for the side pot, he gets a rebate on the side pot.
I think I understand why they can't run 2 complete boards, but I still don't understand why Mariano and Francisco can't run the turn/river twice? Since there wouldn't be any affect on the card distribution for the first run and Mike's money is not included in the side pot. It seems to me Mariano or Francisco could ask each other, after the flop if they want to run it twice, right?
![Blox Fruits Dragon Rework Update [Full Stream]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EqDAp8udhm0/mqdefault.jpg)
No he didn’t do anything shady. Anyone saying otherwise is just plain dense.
Only shady thing he did was showing his true colors after losing the pot.
“Just fucking run it one time in this stupid place”
@@lakerfan1855 that's not what he said. If you are gonna put a quote then put what he actually said smh...
@@baosommurr4566 no, he's allowed to change his mind
@@baosommurr4566 not sure
@@baosommurr4566 I mean knowing the hand probably factored in, but it's also possible he didn't realize how deep fransisco was. You could tell he was just thinking about mikes stack at first
The reason it’s shady is because of the way the equities run when his biceps look so good
I'm saying! He can bench press me any day
You gotta win your all-ins, via Joey the Mushy
Stop commenting and and start making videos 🤣
People saying this was an "angle" just shows that poker isn't dead
Ratio
People aren’t smart enough to understand variance in poker. They are all about AK and AA not minding the size of the pot😂
Just wrote the same thing. This is what happens when your fans play in rake drop games instead of time rake games and can’t run it multiple times.
There is one thing you didn’t mention and it is your relationship with other players at the table. There is a social aspect of the game for most people. If someone is perceived as being unkind that might become a negative for them. If the fun player for instance asks to run it twice and the pro says no, it might create a negative image socially. Of course this has nothing to do with whether they win or lose or equity, just that there is sometimes a social aspect that is overlooked in live games.
It can be used as a small strategy edge if people know you only go once, some are less inclined to call vs knowing you’ll always run it twice, flip side is maybe some get it in worse against you knowing you’ll go twice or let them always decide. It’s really small but more a perceived mental game strat aspect imo.
He didn't influence the action. The way I see it, people make it known that they "always run it once" to prevent draws from shoving on them.
If, they took a flop and Marino said, I only run it once before Francisco acted to prevent a shove, and begged for twice after a shove, that would be shady. That isn't the case.
Correct 👍
Someone should make a video on how RUclips comments got to be the way they are.
A video? You could do that with just an image of "People are stupid.".
Anonymity.
Sometimes things be like they do.
This is a favorable comment.
Double edged sword Mr. Neeme. Comments help your videos via the RUclips algorithm. But 95% of RUclips comments are asinine as hell lol.
This convo happened for years on pocket 5s. It’s the same thing. Don’t waste brain power thinking about it. Instead, play around with different meta strategies for in game dynamics.
“If I run it more then once, does the action player gamble more with me”
“If I only run it once will it allow me to apply more pressure and run over the game”
Things like that work when you put enough hours in to understand in game dynamics
Omg shady af
Exactly, tyler! When I played poker for a living for a couple of years in the early 70s, I considered it a competition among people. Understanding how people react a necessity.
As for the offer to run it twice after noticing the size of the pot, that seems to me an offer out of kindness. He is offering: "Do you want to increase your chance of at least a chop? A better chance to realize your low equity?"
Well spoken
So you really think that a seasoned player only realised how big the pot was during the discussion? Because that's what he said his reasoning is, no matter what that changes or not.
I don't think you should ever be able to run it twice. I will forever and always only run it once.
I don't think he did anything "shady." The bigger scandal should be that an alleged good poker player apparently called off 30 grand without even realizing how much money he was calling off, according to his own account of the events. Seems fishy.
I agree, he said once then saw their cards and said he prefers twice. Very improper
He actually wanted to say “can we run it 20 times”
He wants to run it infinitely reshuffling when they run out of cards. 😂
Honestly the hate against him for doing it doesn’t make sense for another reason too. I’m glad you showed how the equity doesn’t change, but even if it did, who cares?
Worst case scenario, Mariano thought one thing and wanted to run it once… then saw his opponents cards and wanted to run it twice. So what? Even if that would have given him a mathematical advantage, he still ASKED the other players if they wanted to do it. You’re not allowed to change your mind based on information given to you? People are ridiculous.
Thanks for the breakdown Bart
Ofc the equity changes. Is his percentage still the same if he ran it twice compare to once?? The answer is no...
@@baosommurr4566 yes it is. Lol.
It's twice as many attempts to win the half the amount each time.
EV changes exactly 0.
@DubStylee running it twice cnahges the game completley.
Just because the equity dosent change, losing 8 pots in a row getting rekt to varince instead of chopping 8 pots. Chbages the game completley.
Even though these ”pros” wont admit it, people also play way diffrent when you can run it twice.
I dont even get how thats hard to understand?
Its a reason Everyone thinks youre a pussy when you run it twice, just like the highrollers stare at eaachoter, it matters how you conduct yorself,
And if youre not ”scared” people wont fuck with you, its that simple
@@CertifiedSlamboy so is it the same EV to scoop both if you run it twice??? 😜🤣 Come back to me..
@@baosommurr4566 EV of scooping both isn't the same as the overall EV. You're ignoring the cases where it gets chopped. Overall EV is the same regardless of running once or twice.
Although it doesn't change the equity of the hand doesn't it benefit the player who has the most equity to reduce variance? 🤔
I don't like running multiple times against certain players that I know will try and bluff more when they know u will run multiple times because they know they will get 2 chances to hit their outs and they can put you into some tough spots.
skipping all this mumbo jumbo math calcs, the fact that Mariano got to see the 2 Villains hands DOES in fact give him an edge. sure, it doesn't change the equity of his QQ hand, but it does give me additional info that he is far ahead of the two AKs since they block each others' outs. and with this knowledge, he can reduce his own variance by running it twice and not really worrying as much as being sucked out on, all the while still affording him a little protection in case an A or K does come on the flop.
I don't think Mariano was angling. I just think he was traumatized by playing way over his bankroll.
He saw their hands and realized he was being laid a good price and could decrease variance while still maintaining a healthy edge. Shady? Not really, but a little sketch and definitely contrary to the image he cultivates. Cut him a break, he was playing 2/5 a couple years ago and this was a 100 dime pot.
This was *nothing close* to being even "a little sketchy". The only way it would be, is if Mariano *had the ability to make the decision unilaterally.*
But he doesn't! Everyone has to be in agreement! It makes *zero difference* whether he changes his mind after the cards are face-up. This is VERY straight forward!
bart i stopped trying to explain ppl that running it twice doesnt change anything. its like trying to explain nuclear physics to a mountain goat
do you not account for the first board for card removal? how would that not change equity? if they are truly independent events, then I get it. but once the first board is out, there are 5 less cards that can be taken into the second board that are 100% known to be unavailable for the second runout.
@Luca Ferrieri Did you not watch the video? Ngl this stuff is almost over my head but this video helped a lot.
@@mangohavoc6428 I did watch the video and the stats concept makes sense assuming the two boards are independent. But how can they be independent if board 1 removes at least 5 known cards from the deck? that would change the number of available cards for board 2.
@@Unhingedanduninformed imagine a heads up pot
If the first board is favorable for player 1, the second board will be better for player 2
If the first board sucks for player 1, it will be better for him on the second run out
The pot is chopped by the number of times that they run it dude! If the winning player’s equity goes down, running it twice in a $1k pot it’s because that player has already won $500 (100% of half). This is one of the main reasons what the equities don’t change before the runs.
If you listen to Bart regarding pro poker etiquette, you’re doing it right. He’s always been SPOT ON from what I’ve seen.
Bart doesnt mention in the situation from 4 years ago that the burn card was down on the first run before the player changed his mind to run it once...
If I remember correctly wasn't it that the turn card was being dealt when Harry changed his mind. And that there was a chance he saw it was a heart giving him the back door flush draw? I remember Bart not understanding it then and he still doesn't understand it now.
@@madmartigan21 of course I understand that it was close and I spoke extensively about that in the podcast that is linked in the description.
@@CrushlivePoker my mind is still blown that they didn't make them run it twice...in MD its part of the gaming regs (same in Jersey and PA) ...its obvious that other than a breach of etiquette, changing your mind before the burn doesn't change anything but they use burn cards for a reason.
Hypothetically.. if Mariano immediately said, “Twice,” then saw Francisco’s hand and changed his mind to “once”, wouldn’t that be super shady? It’s like he wanted to give not only himself protection against them hitting 1/4 outs but also them insurance. In my opinion going from “twice” to “once” is more off-putting.
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 we don’t need to be either/or about it. Try seeing it from a both/and view.
*Everyone* has to agree how many times the board runs out. It makes zero difference whether one individual changes his mind after the cards are face-up.
The only way changing ones mind would make a difference is if said individual (aka Mariano in this particular case) had the authority to make a decision unilaterally. But that isn't how this works.
Is this really that difficult for some people to understand?
Are people getting worked up about Mariano changing his mind?! It’s OK to change his mind...we go from decision 1 to decision 2...every day. McDonald’s one minute, Chipotle the next. Relax everyone.
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 ?
Did you not watch this video? It makes no difference whatsoever if he changes his mind in either direction. Running it multiple times has no impact at all on the EV.
Brilliant! A voice of reason in the social media fueled feeding frenzy.
Totally aside from the math, I kinda want to offer an entirely subjective view on this : I am 100% certain that Mariano would NEVER pull a shady move. Of course he might (like anyone) unintentionally make an improper move that by chance would benefit him, but I am equally sure that if he did this and realized it he would call himself out. IMO anyone who doesn't believe this of him is a poor judge of character. (BTW BART - you did a great job of explaining the more valuable OBJECTIVE view! Thanks for this.)
nah he shady
I agree 100%. He is a person of good character.
Mariano is a good guy
@@anarchyseeds4406It's been my experience in life that good people are very careful to pronounce judgment on others, whereas those who easily do so are often revealing an underlying assumption that OTHER people surely must have the same unsavory characteristics as they THEMSELVES have.
IMO - a thought worth considering, my friend. Take care.
@@seanariamd9581 Are there any other positions and attitudes you'd like to attribute to me before I proceed?
So I see you enjoy the standard strawman fallacy - hoping to score points by refuting a point I never attempted to make. Doesn't appear you actually under stood anything I said.
But not a surprising display of cognition deficiency since you also show absolutely no signs of having understood anything that Bart took such great pains to explain.
Not shady , just got nervous trying to be Garrett
Yup. Playing well above his means. If this was a 5k pot he would have never complained about HCL only allowing them to run it once. No casino that I know of let's you run it more than once if you aren't heads up. Not shady but a bad look for sure.
2022 and you're still having to explain the run it once vs. run it twice misconception. I feel like you went over this on Cash Plays some 15 years ago, and even then, it was an old discussion. Bart, you a man of patience
Let’s keep in mind nothing happened to mike postal so any video calling poker player out seems null and void
Really ??? He just got away with it ?
@@EricSmyth4Christ no ofcourse not he had to pay 2500$ in fines lol
Love your channel Bart. The most level headed poker analysis there is.
I'd love to see that similar hand you mentioned from years ago. Anyone have a link? I can't find the video
There is not video but there is a link in the description to the podcast where I discussed the situation the day after it happened.
Great video, I want to add another comment but first one just wanted to ask if that graphic at the end (31:51) is correct? This implies there's no side pot, just one main pot? Should player C have less than other two players or the other two should have more? Or am I missing something?
Just rewatched it and listened. I understand it's a side pot situation now but the graphics confused my dumbass.
the equities are EXACTLY the same (mathematically) matter how many times you run it, not merely "nearly equal" equity, as you seem to imply.
It always boggles the mind when i ask someone if they want to run it once or twice, and they want to know what I have first. Whenever they ask that, I say never mind, just run it once then.
Not sure why that would be mind boggling
@@well.thy.one. guess you didn’t watch the RUclips video.
There is small EV gain of running it twice when you OOP, if you chop - you get 1 small blind more, if pot cannot be splitted equally.
“A penny saved is one cent; you put it in your pocket because it’s yours. And you earned it.”
I think they should make a rule that the guy who wins the first board gets the extra sb
The people saying this is shady for him to change his mind from once to twice when holding QQ vs 2 AK’s don’t understand basic card removal and that Mariano is getting better than 1 to 1 in a spot he’s a favorite vs 2 players blocking each others outs.
There’s a case to say it was potentially greedy/shady for Mariano to go the other way and say twice originally then see his opponents share outs and switch to once. If anything I think it’s giving his opponents more chance to catch the now essentially 4 outs vs one villain having another pair and the other having AK with 6 outs to catch a higher pair than Mariano.
If anything it was due to pot size and wanting to reduce variance. It’s a great spot pre for QQ.
Clearly shady
I am a dealer and at our room the house rule is if the smaller stack only wants to run it once and 2 or more players want to run it twice for the side, then the main pot only plays for the first run out. After the side pots are pushed, the second turn and river go in the muck and the hands are read again to determine the winner of the main pot. Very fair.
Sure that’s the right way to do it. Hope you made it through the whole video as I explained why the dealer didn’t allow the side pot to be run twice.
Awesome vid Bart-one of your best yet. Really helped me understand percentages.
What was the J4 equity on the Robbi hand? 20%?
I'm so stunned that it took half an hour for short stacks to get it in with AK v QQ that I don't have the emotional capacity to react to the mob thinking that running it twice changes equity.
Should have taken like 30 seconds for the money to go in
Totally agree with Bart. Can't believe how many people regard that shady!
Find those players and do it to them. Then rake it in when they go on tilt.
Numbers that are the same and end in a five are even easier. For 65 * 65 start with the last two digits which will always be 25. Then multiply 6*6 and add 6 for 4225 85*85= 8*8+8 or 72 and tack on the 25 at the end for 7225
to me the most disgusting thing about the hand is preflop took like 5 minutes
I was watching the start of this video and was screaming in my head: "Bart is going to say there's absolutely nothing wrong with this, right..? Right..??" .. And then 'oof'. Yes, he did. Yes, he did. People are just idiots. It is what it is.. It's on them.
didn't need to do a 35 minutes video to state the obvious
Lauren denied running it twice cause she didn't want to count all that split
This is one big nothing burger. Literally, it makes zero difference in the outcome over time running once, twice, thrice or how every many times you want to run it. It just slows the game down by having more cards dealt, and evens out variance, but the latter only helps the people in the hand, and running more than once hurts everyone at the table, because they are not playing the hand. Fewer hands per hour equals less money.
Plus, it seems watching it, that after he said once, someone said twice, and he was opening it up to twice for someone else, but even if that's not the case, even knowing all the card, it does not matter.
Based on the lead, I thought he asked to have it run once, then AFTER losing asked to have it run twice, which of course isn't allowed, but the actual event is so much nothing it baffles the mind why anyone would get upset over it, or they are not winning poker players because they don't understand the basic of math involved.
It absolutley dosent make zero diffrence.
Changes the whole game , the whole outcome of the game, how people play(even though they wont admit it).
Youre just as beainwashed as the rest of the poker ”smartguys” dumb guys
You dont understand the ”basic” of tilt involved getting rekt by running it once, instegs of Chopin 8 pots.
Youre truly not smart
I thought Lauren was on a power trip when she said that Mariano and Francisco couldn't run it twice.
It's just casino rules. Doubt she cares, and doing what the players want gets her more tips so she would if she could.
It's a Casino Nacho not your Uncles home Game. If your in Bobby's room playing for 200k everyday Maybe you could do that.
i agree with her. that just slows the game down
NOTHIN WRONG with what Mariano did. There are times it makes sense to do once and nothing wrong for wanting to go twice regardless.
I thought Fernando was the one that brought up running it twice and Mariano just was analyzing whether he should run it twice.
I don’t care about the math involved. Mariano is a high stakes pro cash player and he knew exactly how much money was in the pot. The fact that he is saying that he realized after how much money was in the pot and then wanted to run it twice is a bold faced lie! We are not stupid here.
Excellent explanation but I doubt the keyboard warriors will care even if they could understand. This is the world we live in...sort of. I have great respect to those who open themselves up to the haters by putting content out there. Thanks for all you do Bart.
In most of the games I'm a part of, they don't even decide how many times to run it until everyone rolls over their hand.
And this is EXTREMELY flawed
It should always be declared how many times to be ran BEFORE showing, this is to prevent bs like this
@@KrnRnner I guess the lesson from the video went over your head
@@ryanlisterman1864 Lesson didn't go over my head, I'm just speaking my opinion
@@KrnRnner I'll make sure to check with your opinion before our next private home game
@@ryanlisterman1864 sounds good, let me know, I'll be here
Bart, thanks for the math! I have never played anywhere close to these stakes and so maybe I'm off, but my gut reaction is that when the pot is this large, asking for twice is in part a gamesmanship move. Everyone seems generally friendly and while winning money is the goal, I imagine they don't want to possibly have a player get stacked and then leave the game. It's not necessarily a "feel good" moment.
That said, how is going twice shady? He's AHEAD! Even without the math, the other guys are now getting 10 cards face up and 14 total cards out with the burns. If they are hunting for 4 cards, having twice as many out would be better and so, even though it's slight, they get a better chance to win or chop.
so how come people like mike x, bill klein, barry, and garrett always stubbornly insist on running it once since it makes no difference?
They want felt people (or themselves) and can accept the variance because they have the proper bankroll. They can also handle the tilt from the added variance better than their opponents.
A lot of it also is what Bart mentioned in the video. If you have a reputation for only running it once, it could reduce the aggression some other players might take with their drawing hands against you.
What is the difference between 5/5 and $100 ante and $5/$105? ive only really played like… normal cash games
Preach on brother! I've had this conversation roughly 377 times, and it's like talking to a pet rock. An amazingly gigantic % of the poker gen pop are certain that who-has-what informs whether it's a good idea to run it once or multiple times.
????
I definitely agree with the overall point and it only affects variance, but at about 22:30 when you're talking about the AAQ22 runout Mariano would have lost to aces full of 2s not won. Overall great points though
Yes others have pointed that out it was just an example however. Imagine 55556 instead
It’s not about gaining a statistical advantage…..it’s that Mariano acts like a tough guy - “run it once”; then he begs for twice!
You really are a legend of the game Bart. This breakdown is so clearly presented. Well done
I think he realized how thin they were drawing them decided to run it twice. But in the grand scheme of things, it didn't really matter. They all have to agree with it.
Some people would do the opposite. "Oh, you're drawing that thin? Let's go once"
Bro it doesnt matter thats the whole point of this video 😂
@@zackashbel8925 did I say it mattered or did I say what I thought was going through his head.
@@avery465 originally u didnt say anything but u implied that u thought it mattered, but u just edited ur comment
They were talking about running the side pot twice, so the main pot would only be distributed from the first run, the side pot would be run twice so no Mike X's money wouldn't be split if Francisco or Mariano won the first run and they chose to run their side pod twice, whoever won the first run would get all of the main pot and half of the side pot and whoever won the second run would get half of the side pot.
And did I say any different from that?
@@CrushlivePoker Maybe I misunderstood your example but you kept mentioning chopping up the smaller stacks money in the second run.
@@SoH_LaLa Yes but the dealer has been told that all parties have to agree to run it more than once and I wanted to explain why that is. The fact that they were not allowed to run the side twice is most likely a directive from Feldman to the dealers because the graphics cant handle it or a misunderstanding in the communication between Feldman and the dealer regarding "all parties have to agree"
@@CrushlivePoker Ah okay, that was totally my misunderstanding, my brain must have just completely ignored that explanation.
It always baffles me when people don’t understand how running it twice works
You believe that he didn’t know how big the pot was when he just called an all-in… after you just credited him for the incredible trap
Play? He would only be trapping him into that play if the pot, would in fact, be huge. Now I’m not saying he did something shady but I definitely don’t believe he didn’t know how big the pot was. Lol. I actually lead towards him realizing he was up against 2 overs so twice gave him a better chance to at least break even, especially since they were sharing cards. Unlikely he loses twice
Bart is hands down the most handsome guy at CLP
hey
@@marcgoone im sorry you had to find out this way
How could you not show who won the hand?
I'm going to be honest. Even if Mariano thought in his mind he had an advantage because of the hands he was against, there still wouldn't be anything wrong. In Poker you are looking for advantage. If the opponents didn't know there would be a disadvantage, that is their fault. But Bart is right, no advantage anyway.
That's exactly right. Maybe he wanted to run it twice because the pot was huge or maybe he saw he was running against AK. Or both. It doesn't matter. He is entitled to ask it and they have the right to deny it. Mathematically there is no advantage other than there is less chance for him to lose all his money but there is also less chance to win the whole pot. It evens each other out.
another gem, it's not shady to say one time realize the size of the pot and then ASK what the other bigger stack prefers period
If he’s said twice and then changed to once after he knew he was ahead, that MIGHT be shady.
All those stating there wasn’t fair play in this hand are entirely welcome to my home game, but I WILL be wearing headphones for the duration of your stay.
lol
Mariano is a young, hard working dude who has built a channel and now a playing career from that channel and his coverage. He is by any poker metric hugely successful, and did it in a very short space of time, relatively speaking.
Of couuuurse he's going to have heaps of people looking to tear him down, losers and mediocre small stakes tiny winners cannot simply be happy for him, they must shit on him to feel better about their own failures. Same goes for any industry, always the same lol
your last point about running it twice is incorrect
Which point exactly is that?
Bart, if the dealt cards on the first run were 22223 as you suggested then actually Mariano would lose, it would be four of a kind with the best kicker, which would be A, hilariously
Hahah nice catch!
Came to look for this comment. Not sue how the equities didn't reflect that.
@@CrushlivePoker I think I can die happy now, so thanks
Lol that’s happened in a family home game. Except it was like 66 vs AK. Still just as hilarious.
@@nophun00 it’s just cause I was manually enter dead cards. I should have used 77778 or something too as that wouldn’t have decreased the chance that and ace makes a straight.
he said he didn't realise how much was in the pot and changed his mind to run it twice. why?
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 not disputing that. If the pot was smaller would he have stuck to running it once? Sounds like the size of the pot changed his mind.
5:27 When talking about having AA or KK here as a trap, I'm assuming this isnt going to be balanced and purely just used as an exploitive play. I'm probably just jamming all my continues here, player dependent. This is mainly cuz Francisco's range seems pretty capped after flatting the 3! So we can just jam anything here we want to continue with so we realize our equity vs the effective stack. Anything else played as a flat oop seems bad to me.
whats the point of it being 5/5?
This wasn't shady, it's re-negotiating. What is shady are when some player wanting to only run it once when they have the goods, but wants to run it twice when they behind.
Bart teaching chat pros arithmetic, love it. Any one else’s casino charge double rake to run 2x? Smaller games, this is super annoying.
Gross !
The house should like running it twice to keep the games going
Less people go broke running it multiple times
My casino got rid of plo cause people we’re going broke at the start of the month
Entertaining the trolls and degen simps watching poker vlogs that can't count to 2 is like drinking poison yourself to spite them, they wanted some attention and now they have their own CLP episode
I do wonder though Bart if the people that make these comments are even willing to listen to fact based arguments such as the one you layout here. Without getting political, we know that there are a lot of individuals who are just not interested in having their views challenged by reality.
#facts
A majority of the general population really doesn’t care about solving issues anymore. They just want to appear correct.
It always blows my mind how "out to lunch" people are when it comes to running ot once vs twice.
I've heard so many people say "you can't decide to run it once this time then run it twice next time, you have to be consistent" as of there is some kind of etiquette that everyone is supposed to adhere to.
Of course there's the classic that I always hear: "why did you run it twice? You were ahead" or "why did you run it once? You were behind".
that is the etiquette because it speeds the game up, if you know both are two time players you run it twice automatically, if one only goes once, you can tell the dealer to go ahead and run it, instead of the run it twice version of the show down dance, the common etiquette even allows for someone who is normally a one time only player to go more than once in an abnormally large pot...which is what Mariano alluded to (even though I'm doubtful thats why he agreed to run it twice)
@@andymoiser4611 I refuse to accept this premise that you can't quickly choose once or twice whenever you want. You're introducing a completely different issue. If both players know what they want, you run it twice if they both say yes, otherwise it's once, end of discussion. I think we're saying the same thing at the end of the day, by the way. All the chatter and conversations that delay the game should just not be a thing.
How are we still having this conversation in 2022?
So wtf happened in the hand?
I thought when Francisco said “we can run it for our money” he was asking for a double board for only the side pot between him and Mariano. Seems fair?
Unlike the situation between Garrett and Charles I agree with Bart 100% here. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind even if he did change his mind because he saw their hands.
Sad that this even made it into a video
“Intelligence has limits, but stupidity is limitless!” -Albert Einstein
So confusing running a three-way pot once for the main and then twice for the side pot.
Your opponent has a 1-out-er. You are guaranteed at least a chop if it is run twice. Do you offer?
If it were Garrett with QQ, he would be hailed as a hero for suggesting 2 boards. He would have also scooped.
someone is salty over gman
It’s called changing your mind wow
How is this even a conversation?
Bart : everyone is stupid, i can prove it mathematically
Proves it mathematically 😅
Great job breaking thos down to the wire man. Love ur stuff
Would love the feedback on how the short stack held the larger stacks hostage on their decision to run it multiple times. If I was Nick X and the ruling came down the whole table has to agree I would defer to the players that have massively more chips to decide.
Who won the hand?
he said 1 time
then "I prefer twice"
all correct bart, but with all the equity breakdown etc you miss 2 fundamental things: 1. Mariano 100% new how big the pot was, 0 chance he just figured out 2. Its not about the equity that doesnt change for Mariano, its about people "feel saver" to run it twice because they are afraid of facing variance! thats a big factor why people run it 2. You will see pros run it 2 when they have AA. Its not the math behind, its the fear to run bad and lose. Mariano thought Francisco has sth like 10 10, JJ, and dominates him. Then he realized Francisco has 2 live cards. So he just got mor "scared", Thats it, nothing else was the case here. Was it a shady play?? NOOOO, not at all, why can people not change their opinion? Its all good to ask to run it 2 when you know the hand of your opponent. The problem i have is that he said he did it because he realized how big the pot was, could be, but it had be more to do with Franciscos AK. If he sees two 8s he 10000% runs it once. I promise you that.
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 absolutely. But it doesnt mean its unbeatable does it. If you have aa and opponent has kk, would you risk your entire savings just because you have him crushed. You would not
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 so? All we saying is that he changed his mind to run it twice once he saw the cards, thats it. End of story
if the comments on that video were the average poker player this game would be much easier
After he sees both of their hands he changed his mind real quick!
This video earns you one new sub. I might be considered a “Mario stand“ because I love the guys videos. That said, even I was suspect about this particular hand and his actions. In this video, not only do you dispel those suspicions, you made me much more poker intelligent. I appreciate you increasing my PI. I am locked in as a fan! Keep up the great work!
Stand?
you mean "stan" lmao its like a boomer trying to use gen z speak im dead
also his name is mariano not mario what kind of stan are you 😭
“Teas gone cold I wonder why I got out of bed at all”
Hey Bart, what if he seen they both had AK and decided he would prefer twice because if he runs one board and loses, then will lose everything. But if he runs it twice for the side pot, he gets a rebate on the side pot.
bart answered already. it's totally fine as long as the players agree. doesn't matter what the cards are
Excellent explanation of the math Bart. You broke it down the best way possible.
I think I understand why they can't run 2 complete boards, but I still don't understand why Mariano and Francisco can't run the turn/river twice? Since there wouldn't be any affect on the card distribution for the first run and Mike's money is not included in the side pot. It seems to me Mariano or Francisco could ask each other, after the flop if they want to run it twice, right?