If this was 1/2 or 1/3 and the turn jam was for the same amount of big blinds, would you expect to see more value or draws here? Weaker players tend to want to "shut the hand down" since they're afraid of getting beat by bad rivers. Agree?
Value, draws in 1/2 games are call downs/checks until they hit. But you’re also discounting the fact that in many 1/2 fields, villain (not the player type in caller’s hand obviously) very literally has a real share of TT-KK in their range. Hero checks flop, a never 3b! QQ is now the nuts, first time a semi-OMC that *sometimes* goes with hands that aren’t AA-KK or nutted, has held that hand as an OP in ages, his time to shine. Play some live low stakes in Florida if that sounds off.
7:03 “doesn’t change a whole lot here…unless he’s in there with 96.” Couldn’t he have 99? Maybe 99 wouldn’t bet quite so large on the flop, but some people will figure that (when checked to) they’re up against two players holding overcards and just want to take it down there and then.
Bet pacing. Just think about it. You turn a set. Aren't you at least going to think about how to get an over pair to call? He said the villain shoved quickly. I just haven't seen someone turn a set an insta jam. Even online. Even when it's obvious someone has a big pair.
Yeah that’s must call lol, Bart is correct, big exploit to fold out TT-AA. Biggest villain range share has hero as marginal favorite on the turn, solid portion has hero drawing slim or dead, and a small sliver of villain airballing like A5h trying to yolo fold out TT-AA like a donk or using some live/player read. So never comfortable, composite equity against villain range leans towards marginal favorite in a coin flip, but in folding you’re inviting every competent player to kill you with range advantage in 3B pots, especially if this is early in a cap game and stacks get deeper as the game progresses. Also “milking with a set” on the turn for 35-55% pot or something is never something a competent player would do, incredibly unbalanced. I’m more likely to fold to 500 than I am to a jam, and if villain pushes that outlier “I’m not that good and am trying to squeeze value with 2P + but actually am competent and have KsQs” meta button and gets it through, tip the cap. Beyond conceding on the turn post flop raise, I’m not sure if there is a villain hand that doesn’t jam turn with as played.
Hey Bart ... disagree. Based on the GTO Preflop Charts I use, 65 suited can be opened from any position and 87 suited is a call 50% of the time button vs UTG ... therefore, AA is behind both of those hands. I recently was in a similar position as button with 65 suited and flopped 5-4-3 with no backdoor flush, check call flop and check folded turn on 9 ... after the hand I realized I had pot odds to call with 26% equity (8 straight outs and 5 trip, 2 pair outs) ,,, only needed 24% equity.
This hand shows the beauty of poker. You get action in a 3-bet pot from a sub par hand, get the money in good & still somehow lose. Sick game we all decide to play but these types of hands are what keeps us coming back!
The hand was sub par preflop, sure. But was 50-50 on the flop and close to that on the turn. Not like he got the money in with any significant advantage post flop.
@@blazeron12 100%. I was in a 1/2 game (MGM Vegas) where I had AA on the button. EP open to 10, MP call, CO call, I squeeze to something like 50, EP and MP fold, CO jams for 160 total. Board ran out K9xQx, CO rolls over JTo. And I'll take a game like that any day over a reg-heavy 2/5 where I would've likely just taken down the initial open and blinds.
I wonder if you have any advice for a person who primarily played online transitioning to live. I was a winning player online and a very losing player live. I think several factors are at play, one the speed of the game is much slower (I lose focus), I’m pretty slow at determining how many chips = the amount I want to bet, and probably the part I have the most difficulty with is keeping track of all my opponents stacks.
Very odd Kawinkidink. I was in this very situation this last weekend. Except the turn brought the spade flush in. The river was an Ace and I jamed. Supposedly I rivered his two pair but villian didnt show. 1.1k pot my way😅
He played it as well as possible. If you held 97s you would likely jam too. He couldn’t fold without being opened up to being exploited later and never knowing what villain held
Don’t know if you can ever put someone on a 19 out draw lol but as played hero got it in good and lost. Villain probably still jams turn if a non spade Q K A comes
If this was 1/2 or 1/3 and the turn jam was for the same amount of big blinds, would you expect to see more value or draws here? Weaker players tend to want to "shut the hand down" since they're afraid of getting beat by bad rivers. Agree?
Value, draws in 1/2 games are call downs/checks until they hit.
But you’re also discounting the fact that in many 1/2 fields, villain (not the player type in caller’s hand obviously) very literally has a real share of TT-KK in their range. Hero checks flop, a never 3b! QQ is now the nuts, first time a semi-OMC that *sometimes* goes with hands that aren’t AA-KK or nutted, has held that hand as an OP in ages, his time to shine. Play some live low stakes in Florida if that sounds off.
Great analysis Bart, this really helped me a lot.
if a guy says "let's gamble" preflop and I hold AA with this flop, flop is a fold to a 75% bet
7:03 “doesn’t change a whole lot here…unless he’s in there with 96.”
Couldn’t he have 99? Maybe 99 wouldn’t bet quite so large on the flop, but some people will figure that (when checked to) they’re up against two players holding overcards and just want to take it down there and then.
Bet pacing. Just think about it. You turn a set. Aren't you at least going to think about how to get an over pair to call? He said the villain shoved quickly. I just haven't seen someone turn a set an insta jam. Even online. Even when it's obvious someone has a big pair.
been there done that. classic 76 suited.
Up to where villian jams.
2 pair is the obv hand. Spose could have a smaller over pair too, but 2 pair more likely.
I think its a reluctant fold.
Yeah that’s must call lol, Bart is correct, big exploit to fold out TT-AA. Biggest villain range share has hero as marginal favorite on the turn, solid portion has hero drawing slim or dead, and a small sliver of villain airballing like A5h trying to yolo fold out TT-AA like a donk or using some live/player read.
So never comfortable, composite equity against villain range leans towards marginal favorite in a coin flip, but in folding you’re inviting every competent player to kill you with range advantage in 3B pots, especially if this is early in a cap game and stacks get deeper as the game progresses.
Also “milking with a set” on the turn for 35-55% pot or something is never something a competent player would do, incredibly unbalanced. I’m more likely to fold to 500 than I am to a jam, and if villain pushes that outlier “I’m not that good and am trying to squeeze value with 2P + but actually am competent and have KsQs” meta button and gets it through, tip the cap. Beyond conceding on the turn post flop raise, I’m not sure if there is a villain hand that doesn’t jam turn with as played.
There are a lot of decent games in NH, I don’t ever feel the need to drive down to Encore.
Snap call🎉🎉🎉
Villain could have 67, 77, 88, K7 spades or just be trying to shove you off an over pair. Without knowing the player better, I’m calling
Hey Bart ... disagree. Based on the GTO Preflop Charts I use, 65 suited can be opened from any position and 87 suited is a call 50% of the time button vs UTG ... therefore, AA is behind both of those hands. I recently was in a similar position as button with 65 suited and flopped 5-4-3 with no backdoor flush, check call flop and check folded turn on 9 ... after the hand I realized I had pot odds to call with 26% equity (8 straight outs and 5 trip, 2 pair outs) ,,, only needed 24% equity.
You will not be a for profit player in live poker.
This hand shows the beauty of poker. You get action in a 3-bet pot from a sub par hand, get the money in good & still somehow lose. Sick game we all decide to play but these types of hands are what keeps us coming back!
The hand was sub par preflop, sure. But was 50-50 on the flop and close to that on the turn. Not like he got the money in with any significant advantage post flop.
No way you’re here
These hands keep the fish coming back. The pros know that variance gives fish hope and that's why we take beats without blinking an eye.
@@blazeron12 100%. I was in a 1/2 game (MGM Vegas) where I had AA on the button. EP open to 10, MP call, CO call, I squeeze to something like 50, EP and MP fold, CO jams for 160 total. Board ran out K9xQx, CO rolls over JTo. And I'll take a game like that any day over a reg-heavy 2/5 where I would've likely just taken down the initial open and blinds.
@@akhileshanandh2073your raise to 50 was far too small.
I wonder if you have any advice for a person who primarily played online transitioning to live.
I was a winning player online and a very losing player live. I think several factors are at play, one the speed of the game is much slower (I lose focus), I’m pretty slow at determining how many chips = the amount I want to bet, and probably the part I have the most difficulty with is keeping track of all my opponents stacks.
There is no multi tabling, so table selection becomes really important.
this isn't top of range bart. having the As is not good! Better to call off aa kk no spade
It's not the top of range because hero has a spade? So red kings is top of range?
@EllieBanks333 better to unblock bluffs like axss kxss so kk no spade aa no spade better call prolly
You're right about the latter but the former is untrue. Any two aces are top of range, in theory.
@@PAlt-p6y Theory? Do you have a multiway solver nobody knows about? Seems like ur talkin out of ur butt
Joel at the Bike 15 years ago, and he remembers like it was yesterday 😂
It's funny because we can all relate
His bet screamed flush draw to me. No one is shoving the nuts there.
Very odd Kawinkidink. I was in this very situation this last weekend. Except the turn brought the spade flush in. The river was an Ace and I jamed. Supposedly I rivered his two pair but villian didnt show. 1.1k pot my way😅
He played it as well as possible. If you held 97s you would likely jam too. He couldn’t fold without being opened up to being exploited later and never knowing what villain held
Cha'alt!
Don’t know if you can ever put someone on a 19 out draw lol but as played hero got it in good and lost. Villain probably still jams turn if a non spade Q K A comes