Wow, Sackreligious blew my mind with his discussion I had to go back and watch it again. Especially with his point about Josh Jacobs advance rate; to think it could have been even better is insane! 🤯
Def look forward to digging deeper into nick's submission, he def gets bonus points for incorporating laytex and value of next available is a good conceptual translation of a managed league measurement (vorp) into the context of best ball. I also like how one of the firmer positional value conclusions was just take a qb round 8 this year since it confirms what i've been doing willy nilly.
Pretty disappointed in myself that I didn't get to submit an entry for this. Was my goal when I signed up for the course but life happens. Such a busy Summer between my job, family, planning a wedding and of course drafting. Decided it was probably best to learn to code during the nfl season since i cant draft anymore, sad face. Hope yall run it back next year. Best of luck to the submissions, lot of good ideas/data to comb through.
Sackreligious just proves us smart drafters have an edge. Eno Benjamin wasnt a bad click he just didn’t pan out. In an alternate universe sky moore smashed last year and is going where chris olave goes and is stack with mahomes every draft
16:04 makes sense on the PHI stack example, if you had a PHI stack last season: you were winning no mater what. Stacking is essentially a bet on a team aka you have to be right about less things. But also if PHI could’ve played like trash last season, that stack would’ve been terrible if at best less optimal. End of the day it’s a gamble, but in essence stacking is just a bigger bet on a specific team imo.
Hall: I think that this makes sense. In the first round, there’s no need to get unique since every player in the pod is only drafted once. The guys who are high-owned in the advancing rounds are probably the mid-round and late-round smashes where the top of the board actually probably gets unique anyway (a josh jacobs corollary). A Chase WR1 season won’t mean he’s chalky for the next round at all. Thanks Aidan!
For Wecht’s submission:I think there’s something to be said about the fact that adp value doesn’t matter much in the playoffs because the poorly constructed/poorly allocated draft capital teams have weeded themselves out. Once in the playoffs, there might be a survivorship bias rate where the reaches making it through simply have the guys you need. Really cool stuff to think on!
Are there any studies on Late Round QB? I’d like to see a study with Late Round QB with the nut RB. Last year I had multiple teams with a 2 QB build in the 17-18th Round like Baker/Mills that had Josh Jacobs and finished 3rd/4th.
A week ago I’m watching a video of The Manz playing poker. Now I’m seeing talk of roster agnostic advance rate and parsing data sets. I now sit here and ask myself in impressed fashion, “Who exactly is Peter Overzet?”
I wonder if Nick has run his value based drafting against BBMI and BBMII teams to see if it would extrapolate the winning team. It should work in reverse and come up with pretty close to the winning lineup no?
Nick here - thanks for the interest. I did show that team advance rate is pretty much perfectly correlated with how closely they adhered to the best value picks, which makes sense since picking the best players is the best way to win! I also showed how drafting the “perfect value maximized team” results in the one of the most optimal rosters in 2022. What would be really interesting, to your point, is if we could get our hands on old projections to see if value based drafting with those is just as correlated with success. We are only as good as our projections when it comes to drafting.
Is it bad to have a 2 5 8 3 build but the qb's are on bye the same week? I dont understand how you win each week is it the top half in the tournament in bbm4 or do you just go against the room you drafted in and try to be th highest out of the room to make it to the playoffs
One thing I’m curious of nobody is talking about: why aren’t HOU/TEN players getting bumps due to W15 & W17 matchups? Isn’t that an opp to optimize for both advance rate & the final week?
🧠 Get 25% off Fantasy Data Pro's python course for fantasy football w/ promo code PETE ➝ fantasydatapros.com/fantasyfootball/
Wow, Sackreligious blew my mind with his discussion I had to go back and watch it again. Especially with his point about Josh Jacobs advance rate; to think it could have been even better is insane! 🤯
such a wild stat
Def look forward to digging deeper into nick's submission, he def gets bonus points for incorporating laytex and value of next available is a good conceptual translation of a managed league measurement (vorp) into the context of best ball. I also like how one of the firmer positional value conclusions was just take a qb round 8 this year since it confirms what i've been doing willy nilly.
elite qb bros in shambles after that one
Some really interesting ideas and now I get to track all my early QB failures...
ha
awesome show. favorites were Bachelder and Sackreligious
good shout outs
Can't thank you enough for organizing this, huge amount of interesting stuff in the submissions
of course, so many smart peeps out there too spotlight
I really like Sackreligious' metrics; lots of ideas on how we as a community may be able to apply them for years to come
ya can't wait to see people build on it
Sackreligious!! Advanced rate was crazy interesting; hats off to all the projects but damn Sackreligous killed it!
ya super inventive submission
Pretty disappointed in myself that I didn't get to submit an entry for this. Was my goal when I signed up for the course but life happens. Such a busy Summer between my job, family, planning a wedding and of course drafting. Decided it was probably best to learn to code during the nfl season since i cant draft anymore, sad face. Hope yall run it back next year. Best of luck to the submissions, lot of good ideas/data to comb through.
def want to run it back
Love this contest happened. Always got your hands in great things for the industry!
really impressed by the submissions
Just wow. Thanks everyone for bringing this phenomenal content to the masses. Impressive and inspiring. Gratzi!
of course, this space has so many smart people
The advance rate bias stuff is fascinating. Never really thought of that concept before. Those fantasy echo chambers are real
wild stuff
Sackreligious just proves us smart drafters have an edge. Eno Benjamin wasnt a bad click he just didn’t pan out. In an alternate universe sky moore smashed last year and is going where chris olave goes and is stack with mahomes every draft
i love the alternate universe
Thanks for a peek behind the curtain. Definitely gets you to look at what you are doing in drafts and help you with strategy.
for sure
Awesome stuff! I need to learn how to do this
do it
16:04 makes sense on the PHI stack example, if you had a PHI stack last season: you were winning no mater what. Stacking is essentially a bet on a team aka you have to be right about less things. But also if PHI could’ve played like trash last season, that stack would’ve been terrible if at best less optimal. End of the day it’s a gamble, but in essence stacking is just a bigger bet on a specific team imo.
ya the only difference is if other ppl who also get that stack cheaper have an edge on you in playoffs but it doesn't matter for reg season
High high quality content Pete. The real good stuff
inject it
Doing this course is on my to do list. I started learning python a year ago but it fizzled out when I got busy with work, excited to get back into it!
🤝
Hall: I think that this makes sense. In the first round, there’s no need to get unique since every player in the pod is only drafted once. The guys who are high-owned in the advancing rounds are probably the mid-round and late-round smashes where the top of the board actually probably gets unique anyway (a josh jacobs corollary). A Chase WR1 season won’t mean he’s chalky for the next round at all. Thanks Aidan!
good stuff
Everytime they would wrap up their explanation, they would say "I hope I explained that well". Pete would follow up with "For sure..."😂
for sure
Thank you for the info I feel smarter now watching this
🤝
wecht out here causing a spike week for value hound merch sales
awooooo
For Wecht’s submission:I think there’s something to be said about the fact that adp value doesn’t matter much in the playoffs because the poorly constructed/poorly allocated draft capital teams have weeded themselves out. Once in the playoffs, there might be a survivorship bias rate where the reaches making it through simply have the guys you need. Really cool stuff to think on!
that's a good note
Are there any studies on Late Round QB? I’d like to see a study with Late Round QB with the nut RB. Last year I had multiple teams with a 2 QB build in the 17-18th Round like Baker/Mills that had Josh Jacobs and finished 3rd/4th.
check out rotoviz
A week ago I’m watching a video of The Manz playing poker. Now I’m seeing talk of roster agnostic advance rate and parsing data sets. I now sit here and ask myself in impressed fashion, “Who exactly is Peter Overzet?”
i believe in poker they call that balancing your rage
I wonder if Nick has run his value based drafting against BBMI and BBMII teams to see if it would extrapolate the winning team. It should work in reverse and come up with pretty close to the winning lineup no?
good question we'll have to ask him
Nick here - thanks for the interest. I did show that team advance rate is pretty much perfectly correlated with how closely they adhered to the best value picks, which makes sense since picking the best players is the best way to win! I also showed how drafting the “perfect value maximized team” results in the one of the most optimal rosters in 2022. What would be really interesting, to your point, is if we could get our hands on old projections to see if value based drafting with those is just as correlated with success. We are only as good as our projections when it comes to drafting.
I’m looking forward to being on this show next year Pete and just dude broing it up with some people out of my league
see ya then
Will have to submit into the best ball data bowl next year! I'd like to dive into statistical realm of "Why I'm so nice wit it"... stay tuned.
we'll be ready
Sacreligious for the win! Sky Moore was such a bust!
skyy moore drafters to good even after trying to self sabotage
Incredible stuff - by some REALLY sharp minds!
so good
Is it bad to have a 2 5 8 3 build but the qb's are on bye the same week? I dont understand how you win each week is it the top half in the tournament in bbm4 or do you just go against the room you drafted in and try to be th highest out of the room to make it to the playoffs
yup just against the 11 other drafters in your room, so having two players w same bye week doesn't matter if you are able to advance
I want to enter the data bowl next year
do it
This was a good idea! 👂🏽
ya really happy w how it turned out
Loved the insight you nerds! Lol
🤓🤓🤓
One thing I’m curious of nobody is talking about: why aren’t HOU/TEN players getting bumps due to W15 & W17 matchups? Isn’t that an opp to optimize for both advance rate & the final week?
because projecting quality of matchups is actually very hard and not as predictable as we think
@@PeterOverzet Right, which is why I’m saying shouldn’t we prioritize the guaranteed quantity of matchups?
👨🏻🔬🧑🏻💻📈relax and takes notes
worth a re watch
@@PeterOverzet 100%
I feel like I need to watch this again
it's worth a re watch
Awesome content!
great work by all the finalists
NERDS ... NERDS ... Nerds Nerds Nerds (Ogre is pleased)
it's the nerds world we just live in it
How do I learn “python”
take the fantasy data pros course
community
commuuuuunity