My sleeper guy is Charlie Jones out of Purdue. Something about him says productive NFL wide receiver. Good speed. Good hands. Catches in traffic. Also good returner. Day 3 guy probably but will likely make cut and stick on an NFL team. He needs to bulk up a little. Maybe 10 pounds. But I see him as a guy that comes on for a team later.
That's my WR1 bro. AJ Green meets Amari Cooper. I also would have Mims up there will the other burners who are smaller. If you really scout tho, AT Perry is the guy.
You both need too really state how off you were on Christian Watson!!!!! You guys blew that one!! He was best rookie WR 2nd half of season!! And has biggest upside!!
Just to clarify, Garrett Wilson had 674 yards the last 9 games, with some of the worst QB play of all time. Watson had 547 with Rodgers (who was getting healthier)
Special Workout Adjusted Grade. A grade that weighs heavily their pro day and combine performances, as well as any other non game-film attributes. Also known as SWAG
Wish y’all woulda went through your top 15 instead of top 10 though. I’ve heard from so many draft analysts - including y’all multiple times in this video- talking about how “4-15” are interchangeable / how there isn’t a huge difference between like 8-15, so I’d love to know who those additional 5 guys are for each of you. I’d assume your chosen Sleepers may not all be in that range, but maybe I’m wrong.
Such a fair point. I felt that as we were doing it. FWIW my 11-15: Michael Wilson (Stanford), AT Perry (Wake), Matt Landers (Ark), Tyler Scott (Cincinnati), Marvin Mims (Oklahoma)
Wow. No way! My Flowers comp was also Dante Hall, that's nuts. (Slash) small Randall Cobb, or for recent, simply Calvin Austin. Can't believe you brought up the Human Joystick!! Haha awesome. I watched his highlights after I thought of it looking at Zay, ...Dante had the craziest 18-game stretch or whatever, took over the league. People forget. Worth a watch!!!
Not sure what Sam is talking about on his Steve smith comments. I was actually pleasantly surprised to see Steve smith provide what felt like brutally honest criticism of some of the wr prospects.
Agreed. He definitely prefers to talk positively about players, but you can tell there’s a scale in the level of positivity he has depending on the player. He’s voiced plenty of concerns about Johnston, even though he mentions a lot of positives too. Just gotta listen a little closer to pick out his true feelings.
Do you remember this guy Shaquan Davis of South Carolina St 6-5 220 he was signed by the SAINTS as a free agent he was compared with Calvin Johnson aka Megatron.
I love how they responded from a highly rated episode bye really throwing down on the rankings. From what I gather the lesson is get JSN in the first or skip in until later as there are plenty of options with upside but few sure things. I always seem to align with Sam’s Wr rankings, and glad to hear Brice Ford Wheaton brought up.
How can I take you guys seriously when you both still won’t admit that Christian Watson is fully deserving of being top 5. Don’t be surprised if Watson turns out to be the best WR of the draft!
@@oroceo50 do you forget that he's made his name almost entirely as a return man before reinventing himself as an rb? That's a future you foresee for Quentin Johnston? Strange.
@@giglistignanipinza no I don't think QJ will be Patterson, it's the floor the absolute worst he can be. I think he'll be good, like DHop without the contested catch skills
I've tried to watch these guys, but it's painful. I don't see where they seem to understand the draft. I'll check back in and see how they do, but I'm not optimistic.
Why didn’t they simply swap FP2 with the Quali to tweak the Sprint Weekend? That way, the Friday is productive for the teams. Most people are at work anyway. The Saturday builds up with qualifying for the sprint, and the sprint determines the order for the main event on Sunday. That way, the sprint at least had that tension to it. Now with this new format, the main event was more or less teased/spoiled. You knew Ferrari would not manage to hang on, and Charles would drop back.
Comparing these guys based on their success against single coverage is disingenuous if you aren't gonna mention the level of competition. How many future NFL corners did Tank Dell face in single coverage?
Steve Smith, 5"9" 184lbs, 4.44 38.5" vert vs Zay Flowers, 5'9" 182lbs, 4.42 35.5 vert... It's the 2.25in shorter arms and 3" vert that favor Smith in contested catch situations.
@@joshsmith3598 I think it's a reasonable comp, but only because NFL comps are all great players. Zay is not my favorite prospect, but his measurables are pretty damn close to Steve Smith, who may or may not make the HOF.
Great lists from S&S, but Flowers could show out Tiering is the way to go Tier 1: JSN 2: QJ, Addison, Flowers 3: Downs, Mims, Dell 4: Hyatt, Reed, Perry About Flowers and Steve mentioned it, but think of the QBs that the WRs had, literally all of the QBs will be on rosters for the WRs listed before Flowers. Stroud, Dougan, Caleb Williams, Maye, Hooker, Tune.
It’s extremely odd that a group built directly off of advanced analytics is essentially ignoring the single most important analytic for a WR. When you run elite routes, it’s not done at full speed but your ability to maintain speed in a cut and accelerate out of it, is the real key. This is what made T.O. The most consistently productive WR in the league, no matter the system or QB. Plus he’s bigger, stronger, and smarter than the guys who went last year.
QUESTION FOR PFF: In the data, how do you account for a player, let's take a wide receiver for example....for that player going to a team that is already heavy at your position because they went with "Best Player Available" draft methodology? What I mean is that you look at the success rate in the first year of being drafted and you'll say, "This player is going to be immediately productive". Like when the two of you were talking about Smith-Njigba and Addison expected to be productive immediately (and the PFF data shows historical numbers to back that up for players of that same type and college production and eye-test). But if they go to a team that is loaded at WR and they don't get the targets, how does PFF go about "adjusting" the perception that the player is not productive, especially in that first year when many players are getting evaluated for playing time and other variables? But now let's say they are on a team that drafted that person to start immediately, that player is going to look immediately productive and they are going to get tons of targets..... seems like the data can get skewed in that case to favor those that get lots of PT (Playing Time).
If a player is that good, he will get receptions! Don’t judge a guy solely on their first year in the NFL. Rookie year is good but gauge on the first three years. Then see how they perform to earn their second contract; those are the real money players. Unfortunately, some players end up in limited situations where they do not reach their true potential and some end up in the perfect situation. Such is life! Mahomes with Reid; perfect situation for a somewhat risky QB coming out and a talented Offensive HC.
He’s just making stuff up… Steve smith was not 10 lbs heavier at his combine than Zay was at his. You can say you don’t like something without trying to change opinions by telling stories.
@@samuelmonson70 Right. You’re right in him being smaller, but 10 lbs of muscle vs 2 lbs of muscle is a pretty consequential difference. Probably harsh for me to assume it wasn’t an honest mistake, but far too many people try to win arguments this time of year by either making stuff up or masking holes in their arguments with hyperbole. Edit* fun listen btw
Steve Smith was an unreal contested catch player and superb at the catch point. Flowers is not anywhere near that level of player. Plus? Smith could beat press and find holes in zone coverage. Flowers struggles at both. The people comparing Flowers to Smith and AB? Need to take a seat. The best comp I have for Flowers? A twitchier Devin Duvernay.
Christian Watson was a whole lot better than a Marquez Valdez Scantling, he’s going to be the best wr from last years class.
not best, but great
@@alejandropagan4627Watson can't stay healthy too many injuries with the hamstring muscles.I was comparing him to RANDY MOSS
To me this is the best wr class for wr2 or wr3. Few top end talents but great second or third weapons for teams
TEs and Edge in this draft?
Watch out for Jayden Reed.
That man catches every single fade you throw to him without fail.
Every.
Single.
One.
This aged well. Looks really good so far.
My sleeper guy is Charlie Jones out of Purdue. Something about him says productive NFL wide receiver. Good speed. Good hands. Catches in traffic. Also good returner. Day 3 guy probably but will likely make cut and stick on an NFL team. He needs to bulk up a little. Maybe 10 pounds. But I see him as a guy that comes on for a team later.
Seems destined to be a Patriot.
Bengals got emm
No love for AT Perry? That is surprising considering how good he is at getting separation in man plus his good size and speed combination.
I do like Perry. Another guy I had just outside the top 10
That's my WR1 bro. AJ Green meets Amari Cooper. I also would have Mims up there will the other burners who are smaller. If you really scout tho, AT Perry is the guy.
Ran a 4.4 at his size. Amazing catch strength, Great hands, he can go up and will get the ball. Pretty fluid for his size too. A True WR1.
Mims tho the Oklahoma kid is another sleeper tho. Kid is amazing at routes and just stop and go. Has the deep speed. They should run the 40 in Pads.
Pff doesn't go scout frfr. They take other boards and put a twist on it. I develop my own opinion just watching tape.
You both need too really state how off you were on Christian Watson!!!!! You guys blew that one!! He was best rookie WR 2nd half of season!! And has biggest upside!!
Just to clarify, Garrett Wilson had 674 yards the last 9 games, with some of the worst QB play of all time.
Watson had 547 with Rodgers (who was getting healthier)
Great convo, love the honest analysis and critical look. Lots of cheerleading and group think out here and you guys are always honest.
I love Tank Dell's game, I think he's gonna be a baller.
Special Workout Adjusted Grade. A grade that weighs heavily their pro day and combine performances, as well as any other non game-film attributes. Also known as SWAG
I will never understand why PFF hates Zay Flowers so much
Josh Downs literally a Jahan Dotson clone
Wish y’all woulda went through your top 15 instead of top 10 though. I’ve heard from so many draft analysts - including y’all multiple times in this video- talking about how “4-15” are interchangeable / how there isn’t a huge difference between like 8-15, so I’d love to know who those additional 5 guys are for each of you. I’d assume your chosen Sleepers may not all be in that range, but maybe I’m wrong.
Such a fair point. I felt that as we were doing it. FWIW my 11-15: Michael Wilson (Stanford), AT Perry (Wake), Matt Landers (Ark), Tyler Scott (Cincinnati), Marvin Mims (Oklahoma)
@@samuelmonson70 you the 🐐 fam, fr. Appreciate you!
Wow. No way! My Flowers comp was also Dante Hall, that's nuts. (Slash) small Randall Cobb, or for recent, simply Calvin Austin. Can't believe you brought up the Human Joystick!! Haha awesome.
I watched his highlights after I thought of it looking at Zay, ...Dante had the craziest 18-game stretch or whatever, took over the league. People forget. Worth a watch!!!
Michael Wilson reminds me of Jordy Nelson... I'm thinking his career might be similar.
I'm watching this 2 weeks before opening day 2023 !! Quentin Johnston will succeed on the Boltz , great call guys !!!
Zay Flowers is Elijah Moore 2.0. If he goes to the Chargers or a highly effective passing offense...watch out.
No, he isn't. Moore showed he could consistently win against man/single coverage. Flowers despite playing some truly bad College teams? Has not.
Not sure what Sam is talking about on his Steve smith comments. I was actually pleasantly surprised to see Steve smith provide what felt like brutally honest criticism of some of the wr prospects.
Agreed. He definitely prefers to talk positively about players, but you can tell there’s a scale in the level of positivity he has depending on the player.
He’s voiced plenty of concerns about Johnston, even though he mentions a lot of positives too.
Just gotta listen a little closer to pick out his true feelings.
Not having Flowers much much higher is a joke!!! Analytics.. lol!!
Stevie Johnson was sooo good for those 2 years in Buffalo. He was like a poor mans prime Odell before Odell.
Do you remember this guy Shaquan Davis of South Carolina St 6-5 220 he was signed by the SAINTS as a free agent he was compared with Calvin Johnson aka Megatron.
I love how they responded from a highly rated episode bye really throwing down on the rankings. From what I gather the lesson is get JSN in the first or skip in until later as there are plenty of options with upside but few sure things. I always seem to align with Sam’s Wr rankings, and glad to hear Brice Ford Wheaton brought up.
How can I take you guys seriously when you both still won’t admit that Christian Watson is fully deserving of being top 5. Don’t be surprised if Watson turns out to be the best WR of the draft!
Did you know about Xavier Smith of Florida A&M he is 5-9 175 with 4.35 jets.Signed by the RAMS.
JSNs official 40 was 4.48. Any rankings with Addison over him at this point are chalked
At his pro day. Shoulda done at the combine for it to be official
Quentin Johnston's floor is Cordarelle Patterson
But they're nothing alike. You joking?
This is a good one, the man said floor
@pinzabattistinibjorling do you remember Patterson was drafted as a Wideout out of Tennessee?
@@oroceo50 do you forget that he's made his name almost entirely as a return man before reinventing himself as an rb? That's a future you foresee for Quentin Johnston? Strange.
@@giglistignanipinza no I don't think QJ will be Patterson, it's the floor the absolute worst he can be. I think he'll be good, like DHop without the contested catch skills
I've tried to watch these guys, but it's painful. I don't see where they seem to understand the draft.
I'll check back in and see how they do, but I'm not optimistic.
Why didn’t they simply swap FP2 with the Quali to tweak the Sprint Weekend? That way, the Friday is productive for the teams. Most people are at work anyway. The Saturday builds up with qualifying for the sprint, and the sprint determines the order for the main event on Sunday. That way, the sprint at least had that tension to it. Now with this new format, the main event was more or less teased/spoiled. You knew Ferrari would not manage to hang on, and Charles would drop back.
Johnston has Kevin White vibes smh
Comparing these guys based on their success against single coverage is disingenuous if you aren't gonna mention the level of competition. How many future NFL corners did Tank Dell face in single coverage?
Handled Sauce Gardner just fine
Mims Tillman are super solid
Steve Smith, 5"9" 184lbs, 4.44 38.5" vert vs Zay Flowers, 5'9" 182lbs, 4.42 35.5 vert... It's the 2.25in shorter arms and 3" vert that favor Smith in contested catch situations.
There is no comparison Smith is HOFer. Flowers is a prospect with worrying flaws (not good v press or finding holes in zone).
@@joshsmith3598 I think it's a reasonable comp, but only because NFL comps are all great players. Zay is not my favorite prospect, but his measurables are pretty damn close to Steve Smith, who may or may not make the HOF.
Great lists from S&S, but Flowers could show out
Tiering is the way to go
Tier 1: JSN
2: QJ, Addison, Flowers
3: Downs, Mims, Dell
4: Hyatt, Reed, Perry
About Flowers and Steve mentioned it, but think of the QBs that the WRs had, literally all of the QBs will be on rosters for the WRs listed before Flowers. Stroud, Dougan, Caleb Williams, Maye, Hooker, Tune.
Tom Segura is really spreading himself thin these days
Smith Ngigba will be the best this year
1:03:00 - Steve Smith rand a 4.41 at the combine.
JSN’s 40 time was a 4.48 official
At his pro day. Shoulda done at the combine for it to be official
We gotta get some Charlie Jones love on the pod!
Yeah theres a lot of hype for Joey Porter Jr but no respect for the guy who beat him pretty handily.
@@brianp9268 right?! And that game against Michigan 😍
It’s extremely odd that a group built directly off of advanced analytics is essentially ignoring the single most important analytic for a WR. When you run elite routes, it’s not done at full speed but your ability to maintain speed in a cut and accelerate out of it, is the real key. This is what made T.O. The most consistently productive WR in the league, no matter the system or QB. Plus he’s bigger, stronger, and smarter than the guys who went last year.
I like Sam's WR list better. Mingo looks like a beast.. Kinda like a RB build. Great hands. Addison makes me nervous.
JSN ran a 4.48 at his pro day. Granted that’s not official, idk where 4.53 is coming from.
We have War Power and Game Power with baseball prospects. Why don't we ever have Raw Speed and Game Speed in football??
I think there are more talented slot wr then outside wr. Are slot wr worthy of first pick…🤔
Finally found Matt Landers, he's not even on some boards- DEEP PICK! (maybe cuz his drop problems with Bryce Young as your QB...)
A.T Perry, Josh downs and Marvin Mims Jr are criminally underrated.
I also had Landers, Isovas and Bryce Ford Weaton as my sleepers! I also really love Jonathan Mingo and Rashee Rice!!
QUESTION FOR PFF: In the data, how do you account for a player, let's take a wide receiver for example....for that player going to a team that is already heavy at your position because they went with "Best Player Available" draft methodology? What I mean is that you look at the success rate in the first year of being drafted and you'll say, "This player is going to be immediately productive". Like when the two of you were talking about Smith-Njigba and Addison expected to be productive immediately (and the PFF data shows historical numbers to back that up for players of that same type and college production and eye-test). But if they go to a team that is loaded at WR and they don't get the targets, how does PFF go about "adjusting" the perception that the player is not productive, especially in that first year when many players are getting evaluated for playing time and other variables? But now let's say they are on a team that drafted that person to start immediately, that player is going to look immediately productive and they are going to get tons of targets..... seems like the data can get skewed in that case to favor those that get lots of PT (Playing Time).
If a player is that good, he will get receptions! Don’t judge a guy solely on their first year in the NFL. Rookie year is good but gauge on the first three years. Then see how they perform to earn their second contract; those are the real money players. Unfortunately, some players end up in limited situations where they do not reach their true potential and some end up in the perfect situation. Such is life! Mahomes with Reid; perfect situation for a somewhat risky QB coming out and a talented Offensive HC.
malik knowles..Second Team All-American
He’s just making stuff up… Steve smith was not 10 lbs heavier at his combine than Zay was at his. You can say you don’t like something without trying to change opinions by telling stories.
His list weight was 195. Apparently he was 184 at the combine. Either way, he's not smaller than Flowers
@@samuelmonson70 Right. You’re right in him being smaller, but 10 lbs of muscle vs 2 lbs of muscle is a pretty consequential difference. Probably harsh for me to assume it wasn’t an honest mistake, but far too many people try to win arguments this time of year by either making stuff up or masking holes in their arguments with hyperbole.
Edit* fun listen btw
Quenten Johnson = cordarrelle Patterson coming out of college
Steve Smith run 4.39
Steve Smith was 184lbs & ran a 4.44 at the combine so zay is faster & around the same size at his combine
Steve Smith was an unreal contested catch player and superb at the catch point. Flowers is not anywhere near that level of player. Plus? Smith could beat press and find holes in zone coverage. Flowers struggles at both. The people comparing Flowers to Smith and AB? Need to take a seat. The best comp I have for Flowers? A twitchier Devin Duvernay.
Mingo!!!!!
Steve is just sooo jealous of Mike Renner
Y do you say that
Flowers
Addison
JSN
Hyatt
Parker Washington
I’m not a Johnston guy