Why Pilot Hiring Trends Are Changing
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- Опубликовано: 20 окт 2024
- In this episode, we sit down with Firecrown Senior Analyst JP Hampstead to discuss the latest trends in airline pilot hiring, breaking down the “why” behind recent reductions in hiring plans and more. View the full white paper here: airlinegeeks.c...
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Somebody is finally speaking the truth
Never underestimate the power of the average American consumer to frivolously spend every last cent that they have. You can see it everywhere. I used to deliver groceries and I would occasionally deliver to some of the trailer parks in the area. Even outside of some of the junkiest, trashiest, most run down mobile homes you would see brand new utvs parked out front.
What is not covered here is a significant portion of the US certificate holders fly for foreign carriers, roughly 5,000 pilots that get certificates in the US every year are not US citizens and work outside the US.
What is the percentage of Total Certificates go to foreign citizens?
From a former airline pilot who left to make the going wage for human life in 2005.
Was paid $20K to fly a 50 pax jet for a Regional.
Hey, that was an upgrade from my $15K per year flight instructing 6 to 7 days per week.
No complaints.
The wage was fair, as it was based on Supply and Demand at the time.
Damn, imagine if you would have stayed, you'd literally be a millionaire atm.
At 4:30 he says that number of ATPs has gone from 100k to 300k over a ten year period. The FAA Airmen Stats (google: Faa airmen stats) has the number of ATPs at 153k in 2014 up to 174k in 2023. Where is this guy getting his data? Are the FAA stats wrong for some reason?
I checked and you’re correct. No clue where this guy is getting his data.
The FAA is *the* source of data for this
@@ChrisTorrella do you have a link to it? The FAA airmen stats don't line up with that, unless I am interpreting them wrong
@@gwrallenwhat I’m saying that the FAA has the data, I don’t know what it is, but the FAA is the most correct info
Great. Sure am glad I entered this industry and spent all this money that I can never get back.
Tell me something…when you gather your statistics on how many ATPs and Commercial pilots are out there do you factor in the amount of foreign pilots that are not eligible to work in the United States or is that just the total number of licenses issued?
Good question
Gen Z is an experience generation. They realized they will never be able to afford a home or save for retirement, or even now buy a new car. They use the money they would have saved for those things to travel.
Are those reissued ATP’s with new type attached or just straight up new ATP?
Not a good look when one of the presenters can barely get his eyes off his phone to even introduce himself. If you're not interested enough to look the camera in the eye, why should I be interested in what you have to say? Thanks, bye.
Facts 💯
Did you factor in prior to the changes in the ATP rules most Major airline and Regional FO’s only had commercial certificates.. there was a influx as after the 1500rule they all had to get ATP’s…
DEI will be the leading trend for airline 121 hiring. These cases always settle out and no matter what your credentials you’ll be hired.
Please don’t say I wasted all this time and money getting into flying
If you got into aviation to make money you should've gotten into medicine, finance, real estate, sales... you get the point. The sky isn't falling, it's still a lucrative carreer. Just isn't going to be spoon fed to you. Hiring is still better than 2016 and ALOT better than 2002... you'll be fine
@@IflyfreightI appreciate your comment. I'll be in the market for a flying job here very shortly. Getting back into flying after 13 yrars out. Any thoughts.
Ben
Listening to you guys from Brazil 😊 I love to keep track on Aviation trends, technologies, and etc. Thanks!
“The only constant in life is change.” After one of the most prosperous periods in US history, bolstered by $1.7 TRILLION of pandemic handouts, wouldn’t one expect the prosperity to ebb?
ATP growth was greatly driven by the FO requirement changes. I don’t think they worked that into their calculations and analysis.
Is it worth going to flight school right now then. I love Aviation, but I’m going to have to take out a full loan pretty much. It sounds that the hiring boom will be over by then. I hope to crank it out in 2 years and then get to the minors once I get 1500. However, after listening in that doesn’t sound feasible. Am I correct?
From a former airline pilot-
If one is young enough, makes sense now to pursue a pilot career.
Long term, shoot to work with a cargo op like FedEx etc
...no worry of layoffs.
I’m 25 right now. I always wanted to work with the airlines but it sounds like Cargo might be most likely
You should get into aviation if you love it. Countless made it work before the historical boom of post covid and you can too. 1500 isn't competitive without significant turbine time and probably not even then. But nobody. And I mean nobody, knows what the airline market will be in 2 years. Ask student pilots in 2019 lol. Also, they are called regionals, not the minors 😉
So all that bs Pilot shortage is crap. Like Biden saying we need 250,000 more truckers when 500,000 lost their jobs. Pilot dei hiring making pilot salaries equal to a MacDonald manager
Compensation has only gone up. I made a (great pay at the time) 30k my first year at a regional. Now you’ve got first year FO’s at regionals making near or above six figures.
Max 7 was the issue for southwest. Spirit was financial management and aircraft MX costs. There’s an airplane shortage which caused a glut in flight crews. When new planes come on line (like max 7} hiring with kick back in
Watch what happens at American in the next 2 years if you want an accurate read on hiring. Theirs was the only aircraft order that didn’t get scuffed. I think we won’t see the 2022 hiring rates ever again.
It will never be like 2022 again but it will be healthy for the long term.
Yeah dude it sucks, I missed the wave, no 121 or 135 ops hiring at all, feeling pretty disheartened.
Translation: If you think you want to get an airline job, be ready to work for years for peanuts before you get a job at a regional. When you get on at a regional and major, know that you are going to be an FO for a long time, and that is going to get worse as the years go by. Right now the commercial pilot jobs are drying up, and as the word gets out that the party is totally over and the number of students drops off the CFIs will also jobs will drop off. This is about to be a train wreck.
So basically it's going back to normal. The easy part is getting to 300 hours with a CPL IR, ME and CFI. The hard part is getting from 300 hours to 1500 hours.
I think that is a bit too much doom and gloom. Everyone I know at my flight school has a CJO or starts training within the next few months or weeks. Things are slowing yeah, but the music has not stopped.
This is 1 of the most confusing and ambiguous discussions.
Can anybody answer: If you start flight training today, will there be a need for more pilots at the majors in 2years?
Basically hiring will trend between stable to increase over next 2 years afaik
There will be ups and downs but based purely on retirements and fleet growth there will be requirements to hire healthy amounts well into the 2030’s. At delta we just upped our hiring numbers for 2025 due to deliveries. American and United have much higher retirement numbers compared to us and will need to hire massive amounts to sustain the current pilot group population let alone grow.
Obviously if the economy takes a dump hiring will stagnate. But these people who try to incite panic tend to ignore the massive amount of retirements that will be seen at in the next 5 years and the backlog that is the regional airlines currently. I will say the hiring minimums will never be as low as they were coming out of COVID. The 2,500 hour hires were PFL’s and you will see a return to much more normal numbers of 4k TT and 500-1,000 TPIC.
Wow I didn’t think anything could be more boring than NPR.
“A bubble of ATPs coming.” Hmmm.
Cultural figures, points for or against the toothbrush mustache; con: Chancellor of Germany 1933. Pro: Charlie Chapman...AND...JP Hampstead. So.....that's two against one. Toothbrush mustaches are back!
Have you deleted the ATPs over 65 years old in your numbers?
At 7:45
Is no one going to talk about his Hitler mustache...
No, regional airlines wholly owned are not the same. Seniority doesn’t carry over, they are just the same shitty regionals
Party is over basically
fdfwd