Anything is possible and this set up could end up being bullish. However, yet another way to look at this set up and the content of this video and suggestions is as evidence of the extreme bullish sentiment permeating the markets through and through right now: when rare and ominous development like this can be seen as uber bullish for stocks by one of the most even keeled analyst like Sven. I always appreciate great content Sven put out, it's always interesting and useful. Good luck everyone either way.
Great analysis brother. My only problem with the catchup trade is this. Economy is very weak. Retail is weak.pMI is showing the slow down. Etc etc Just don’t see Small caps earnings giving us anything to rally behind What’s happening here is shadow liquidity and a concentrated effort to keep the markets bullish.. Central banks are all doing the same thing and telling the people to F off… they would rather save the system than the people who pay for it But I do agree that the shit can go on and on and on and on because we are in an inflationary shithole
Correct...the U.S. is likely to have the equivalent of a very nasty hangover. Not sure when it starts but at some point the can can't be kicked any further down the road. Have a great day
NMT northcast has been on fire this year...wow!! I'm just doing normal retirement investment that I would have done anyway, but wow this guy has been ahead of the market every-step-of-the-way 🔥🔥🔥
Thanks, Sven! Market might go up regardless of rates. If the Fed lowers rates, market goes up. If the Fed does nothing, money from overseas might flow into the US because of rates which will push the markets up. Interesting times, indeed.
Thank you for great insights and objectivity. Do you think that the pump higher on negative breadth could, at least in part, be explained by option activity, never ending gamma squeeze in a few large names driving the market plus 0dte activity, both of which force the market makers into buying stocks and indices to delta hedge the options?
It's such a great chart, but I don't know what your quandary is if you only have four stocks at a 500 then you have a lot more risk. I mean a sixth grader could do that math or maybe a second grader I'm not sure I don't know why it's so bizarre as bizarre at all. It is what it is, we've never seen it before. Well that means you got a ton more risk than you've ever had before. That's pretty simple. There's no revelation here.
MY question, please reply is, If this is some crazy top, which i am biased it is, WHAT IS THE NEW HEW HIGHS MINUS THE LOW SIGNAL YOU POTTED LIKELY TO DO, when it seriously turns DOWN?????? AND PLEASE EXPOUND, SINCE IT IS SO FAR DOWN ALREADY NOW!!!
So the market got driven this high because of 5 stocks pretty much. All the rest lagged, and now the narrative is that those stocks will fall off and hand off leadership to small caps and other stocks to power the bull market forward. It's not simply just a great divergence that created this huge imbalance. Now, it's time for the bull market to go into a different phase! Ha ha this all hard to paint Sven. Why not just call it like it is? It's a huge divergence and 5 stocks held up the market up until now. When those stocks fall, the bear market will begin.
Question…. Aren’t the big 5 companies dependent on other companies growth via advertising or expansion? What makes Northman think they aren’t going to slingshot down? Aren’t the big 5 the laggers here?
Just move the last bull phase to the right, starting in the begining of 2024. I mean you draw the last bull phase (pink rectangle) a little earlier. If you accept November-December rally as correction of oversold market of 2022-23, everything will set up correctly. Therefore the bull market has just started in 2024 IMO.
When yellen can't purchase debt at 5% when she should be purchasing at 4% and she's gotta go back to the long end you can kiss this market goodbye 🎉until then we're probably going higher
$gme is going to break the market... the sharp price increase in stock will cause other position to liquidate and cause some kind of limit down after limit down. Unable to cover short positions the market is broken... and inflated... only real stocks will survive. this is just my theory, but i did predict crash in 2020, maybe it was pure luck..
Anything is possible and this set up could end up being bullish. However, yet another way to look at this set up and the content of this video and suggestions is as evidence of the extreme bullish sentiment permeating the markets through and through right now: when rare and ominous development like this can be seen as uber bullish for stocks by one of the most even keeled analyst like Sven. I always appreciate great content Sven put out, it's always interesting and useful. Good luck everyone either way.
Thanks for teaching me the word bifurcation
Hey Sven, you are blessed to have such a smart wife! Thanks for always giving us something profound to think about
Great video . something similar happend in 1998 USHL was going down fron 1998 until 2000.
Thanks Sven! This is veeery interesting chart you showed!
Thank you Sven. Your analysis is awesome. Really appreciate your content.
Great analysis thank you for sharing and helping!
very informative
That is really neat. Thanks for breaking it down and showing us.
Great analysis brother.
My only problem with the catchup trade is this.
Economy is very weak. Retail is weak.pMI is showing the slow down. Etc etc
Just don’t see Small caps earnings giving us anything to rally behind
What’s happening here is shadow liquidity and a concentrated effort to keep the markets bullish..
Central banks are all doing the same thing and telling the people to F off… they would rather save the system than the people who pay for it
But I do agree that the shit can go on and on and on and on because we are in an inflationary shithole
Convergence of AI + post-pandemic + recent huge corporate tax cuts + recent inflation/PPP...yes, we will never again see this setup.
Correct...the U.S. is likely to have the equivalent of a very nasty hangover. Not sure when it starts but at some point the can can't be kicked any further down the road. Have a great day
NMT northcast has been on fire this year...wow!! I'm just doing normal retirement investment that I would have done anyway, but wow this guy has been ahead of the market every-step-of-the-way 🔥🔥🔥
@@Personalfinance_10174 Do you subscribe to his paid service?
Tremendous insight. Thank you! 3:07
Right? And we are all thinking that the 500 is diversified. I knew it was bad but I didn't know it was 5 companies equals 27%
Good stuff, thanks. If you see rates go down most likely the rally will broaden. If not then probably not.
Great video btw.. appreciate it
Swen rocks 🤘🏻
Thanks, Sven! Market might go up regardless of rates. If the Fed lowers rates, market goes up. If the Fed does nothing, money from overseas might flow into the US because of rates which will push the markets up. Interesting times, indeed.
Wow Sir, thank u so much.
Thanks Sven, if we look at 1 & 3 you are correct.
I wonder what this chart for the Nifty-Fifty looked like. Fantastic video. Thank you :)
thanks
Thank you for great insights and objectivity. Do you think that the pump higher on negative breadth could, at least in part, be explained by option activity, never ending gamma squeeze in a few large names driving the market plus 0dte activity, both of which force the market makers into buying stocks and indices to delta hedge the options?
what levels are you watching for IWM if you thesis plays out? WOuld you also consider the Midcaps taking part too?
Top shelf
One should not eat chocolate chip cookies of Cinibons
Holy Moly.
Monumental broadening out catchup trade?
Mind blowing content Sven. Always bringing the alpha 🔥
Very good point.
Is it possible that we may see a similar bifurcation in box 2 of the last graph?
right! ...box 2 or even box 1
I predict we will know by the end of this week which way we're going
It's such a great chart, but I don't know what your quandary is if you only have four stocks at a 500 then you have a lot more risk. I mean a sixth grader could do that math or maybe a second grader I'm not sure I don't know why it's so bizarre as bizarre at all. It is what it is, we've never seen it before. Well that means you got a ton more risk than you've ever had before. That's pretty simple. There's no revelation here.
so this action is presaging rates coming down soon to give the small caps their much needed leg up? interesting...
What about the consumer spending getting weaker? Int Rates going ? Is it sustainable? Thay say that when all is turning bullish...just saying...
what are IE Small Caps? Int. Emerging? thx
Maybe the NVDA stock split causes a pullback, these stock splits tend to cause a correction initially. Time will tell.
MY question, please reply is, If this is some crazy top, which i am biased it is,
WHAT IS THE NEW HEW HIGHS MINUS THE LOW SIGNAL YOU POTTED LIKELY TO DO, when it seriously turns DOWN??????
AND PLEASE EXPOUND, SINCE IT IS SO FAR DOWN ALREADY NOW!!!
So the market got driven this high because of 5 stocks pretty much. All the rest lagged, and now the narrative is that those stocks will fall off and hand off leadership to small caps and other stocks to power the bull market forward. It's not simply just a great divergence that created this huge imbalance. Now, it's time for the bull market to go into a different phase! Ha ha this all hard to paint Sven. Why not just call it like it is? It's a huge divergence and 5 stocks held up the market up until now. When those stocks fall, the bear market will begin.
Question…. Aren’t the big 5 companies dependent on other companies growth via advertising or expansion? What makes Northman think they aren’t going to slingshot down? Aren’t the big 5 the laggers here?
Lagging stocks will catch up just like they did in 2008
Just move the last bull phase to the right, starting in the begining of 2024. I mean you draw the last bull phase (pink rectangle) a little earlier. If you accept November-December rally as correction of oversold market of 2022-23, everything will set up correctly. Therefore the bull market has just started in 2024 IMO.
So up or down?
When yellen can't purchase debt at 5% when she should be purchasing at 4% and she's gotta go back to the long end you can kiss this market goodbye 🎉until then we're probably going higher
well said!
Heidenburg indicator?
If something breaks, it will be difficult to get out of the way on a timely basis
Would have to have major rate cuts to get small caps to take off. Two 25 bps cuts or a 100 bps money bazooka. See what happens
Something big is coming.
S&P 10000!
Looking at possible cycle low mid month-28th... tik tok LONG RUNWAY for beat down stocks...TDOC SAVE HIGH SI ...
Ponzi to da moon!
$gme is going to break the market... the sharp price increase in stock will cause other position to liquidate and cause some kind of limit down after limit down. Unable to cover short positions the market is broken... and inflated... only real stocks will survive. this is just my theory, but i did predict crash in 2020, maybe it was pure luck..
Lil bro your chart starts shortly before 2005 how can you say things like "never seen before in market history" etc?
First!