Canada barely skirting a recession despite strong U.S. economy: Royce Mendes
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- Опубликовано: 6 июн 2024
- Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, joins BNN Bloomberg for a look at the latest economic data and what it spells for both the Canadian and the U.S. economies.
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Big government spending on sweetners and unicorns = higher taxes = higher inflation = government subsides to quell inflation, The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.
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We are in a recession by any metric except basic gdp which is total bullshit from adding 2 million people in a year and a half . Per person gdp way down. Unemployment up.
Our economy sucks so hard. Just check our TSX being mostly only Banks instead of a diversified market. We don't produce shit and if it continues will be just like Russia selling resources and buying the finished product at insane price. Actually worst then Russia because we pay foreign companies a fortune to ''convince them'' to come exploit our resources and they leave us often with economic disaster when they leave and abandon all the workers and not mentioning the environmental disater.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
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"Barely skirting a recession" essentially means that a lot of sectors are already recessionary.
finance and tech for example.
If you took out immigration artificially increasing it, we would be in a recession
They don’t need to renew their mortgages in the States. Big difference.
Living in Canada sucks compared to 8 years ago. Trudeau should take his poor marijuana and go
Get rid of liberal policies and over spending.
Look at the gas prices there will be no cut smart man!
Exactly!
If the dollar drops too much than inflation will go back up
Yes, Canada is screwed no matter what imo. 9 years of bad policy has delayed consequences.
Cutting 4 or 5 times but we are "skirting"...lol
Canada is all about Insurance claims , stolen cars and child care. Basically the Insurance and government are paying people to live in canada for a loss. I have no clue where they print this money from
I like how Royce mentions that January, February, and March inflation rates have come below the economist's expectations (because it fits his narrative) but are above the 2% goal of the BoC. How many rental properties does Royce own? 4-5 rate cuts is delusion at its finest. BoC is not there to protect homeowners who bought more house than they could afford when interest rates were low, their job is to protect the CAD and control inflation.
Exactly. How much real estate is he holding.
Cut sales tax to 5% now
Barely skirting? So the headline could be… “Canada Avoids Recession !”
“Canada reduces inflation while avoiding recession”. It’s good news.
@@josephsmith594should be "Canada sacrifices living standards to prop up real estate and to suppress wage growth".
@@Casey-qm1nd What would you have done?
@@josephsmith594 i would have let the business cycle play out and let there be a correction in asset prices. Now we will have tons of people competing for limited work and a high unemployment rate. People act as avoiding a recession is a good thing... but recession was part of the cure. The sooner we got the recession, the better. It's better to go through short term pain now as opposed to greater pain later. I also would have not done what Powell did by signalling premature cuts which is loosening financial conditions and boosting raw materials. Powell repeated that exact same mistake Tiff made a year earlier with his failed pause. If I was the fed chairman in the US, I would hike again. It's why Tiff is handcuffed.
@@Casey-qm1nd WOW! someone with common sense, unlike 99% of Canadians and Trudeau
What is he smoking
With a history of high immigration it's necessary to consider per capita values in order to know what direction things have and are headed.
All those rate hikes were exactly designed to create this “skirting” situation. It’s not bad news, it was the objective the BOC. That’s how you reduce inflation, which the US has not done as well.
Lowering rate means everyone pays tax to bail out the banks as they foresee a lot of mortgage bad debt coming these two yrs, even though that means massive depreciation if canadian dollar and rebound of inflation
That s why they always "forecast" a lot of rate cuts
Historically, the US economy pulled Canada’s along: with76% of our exports compared to the next nation, China with 4%.
But investors and the global market know that Canada is totally mismanaged and avoid dealing with us now.
Losing faith in investing in Canadian economy. Such a dumpster fire.
Many already have . Heck they said it it was better returns lol. Even away from the US dollar 💵 .
This is because our BoC governor is an academic with no private sector experience and the Trudeau-Freeland team is financially illiterate.
Per capita GDP has been shrinking for years now, unemployment is over 6% and the only inflation we have is in the shelter component, which is caused by housing shortages and high interest rates set by the BOC. In other words, the only inflation we have is the one created by the BOC themselves. They should have been lowering rates along time ago, but I guess it's better late than never. Just like they completely missed the boat when inflation started ("it's transitory, we are fine... yeah right!"), they also completely missed the boat by creating a lot of unnecessary economic pain.
would respectfully disagree. Low rates while helpful for those with mortgages mean larger amounts of cheap cash which is one of the major reasons for run-away real estate prices - the others being rampant unchecked speculation/investment and billions and billions of global capital. Supply is an issue but a relatively minor one despite what politicans/media/development community sys - prices have gone up 300% in 10 years - FAR faster than the population growth - I know people who's job is to go from house to house for a night to make them looked lived in - all owned as investments to pad portfolios.
These experts that say inflation is good, are lying to you. Inflation was over 4% last year and its up 2.9% this year that means 8% inflation over that last two years. We shouldn't care about the people that over paid for their homes... there fault. Keep rates high!
inflation does more to destroy living standards than virtually any other economic phenomenon - it's inflation that's killing people, and NEVER forget that indebted governments LIKE inflation - good for them - bad for you.
recession coming in HARD😂
We are already in a recession, unemployment is up and a lot of layoffs coming before June. BOC got it wrong AGAIN, we are heading for a full recession and it may be really bad as interest rates may affect our economy up to 18 months.
For sure cut the rate and our dollar is soon to follow .
Who got free tax payer cash in the budget to tow the party line ? Hmmmm.
Means we are in a recession
Wtf we are in a recession