I'm looking forward to the inevitable video you will open by saying "We're hoping to reach 5 million subscribes before the UK is set to leave the EU on March 31st 2036"
Exactly my thoughts. The ERG is closely related to a certain section of high-risk, fast-pace investors who are about the only ones who will profit from a no deal brexit - that is the reason, they are so headstrong about it, consequences be damned. And it looks like Boris will manage to get them their bullseye, with the added bonus of having the electorate be mad at the oh-so-bad EU instead of the turbo-capitalists who drove their plunge into this...
As I understand it, this recess is the scheduled time for MPs to go back to their voters and get their opinions. Basically "listen to the people". Canceling it would piss off a lot of people and give brexiteers another thing to point to when saying "They aren't listening to the will of the people!" And only Remainers would want to cancel it as it works in favor of getting Brexit thru.
VME - Brad lol bit naive buddy only remainers want mps in Parliament because that would stop brexit lmao you need to take in some information for once brexit has many forms none of witch has a majority and the irony is this is causing clueless people to moan about democracy 🤦🏻♂️ frankly it’s embarrassing especially when the best explanation is brexit means brexit lmao shlubadubadubdub means brexit too 🤣 but a different type
VME - Brad ok there’s been over 9 recesses in Parliament since the original vote to leave (some were shortened idk if they count) so why then do the majority of mps return claiming their priority is to protect businesses and no brexit deal or plan has a majority still to this day ?
Most likely, Johnson is fine with a No Deal. If it works out fine for the UK - he delivered it! If it turns out bad (like everybody who knows a thing or two assumes), he'll blame the EU, the Irish, anybody for it. An outside enemy is always great to rally the electorate behind you. So... Win-win for Johnson.
There are more than a few knowledgeable and intelligent people who say a no deal Brexit will be fine. Like ex Bank Of England boss Sir Mervyn King for example. If you think about it leaving with no deal means we'd have no free trade deal with the EU. But countries like the USA and China do not have a free trade deal with the EU and they manage okay. What exactly is the problem?
Karl Bassett The problem is that the stated goal of "ever closer union" has turned a trading block in the 70s into a political empire in the 2000s. This is not what the UK signed up for.
@@XalphYT I agree. In the 70s the British public were told the then Common Market was a mere free trade area. But treaties like Maastricht and Lisbon turned it into a political union, a United States Of Europe. We the British didn't get a say. No vote, no referendum, nothing. The Irish, because their constitution says matters of sovereignty must be decided by referendum, got a vote. But we didn't.
Fredrik Dunge The US economy shows signs of entering a big recession soon. If UK wants to fuck their economy and the EU economy right now, this is the worst timing ever as it screams world wide economic recession. Oh well, if everything goes to shit we will witness in real time the breakup of the UK.
UK: We need to leave the EU to take back control of our own borders! EU: Erm, OK! We will continue to control our borders, including Ireland. UK: OMG you are so unfair!!!
Such a dumb point, Ireland is the one being damaged the most by a hard border. That's why Ireland wants the backstop so much, but this demand will it make actually more likely for a hard border and a no deal brexit.
@@TheBarca1889 Either way there is no solution for the Irish border. The backstop is just a stop gap measure that will only delay the issue and seeing how useless the UK has become at solving problems it's gonna stay an issue forever. So if the UK breakshit without a deal then so be it. They're the idiots either way.
Cedric Blum the problem is that no backstop means just as hard a border as no deal. There is no downside here for Ireland. The only way to avoid an Irish hard border is a) have a hard border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the uk or b) a hard border between Ireland and the rest of the EU. Neither of those are an option.
@@TheBarca1889 What a dump point. Ireland has nothing to fear. The troubles will get reignited in NI not in Eire. And the Republic of Ireland is backed by 500 million EUropeans and their economic power. We built Ireland up once we will do it again. On the other side of the newly established border the UK will disintegrate in a snap...and you know that ;-)
@@popelgruner595 there are no troubles anymore in NI, I know you irish nationalists wish this to be different and still dream of killing british soldiers, but the actual people in NI have mostly risen above this sectarian racist BS you still wish to peddle. Ulster is British, was British, stays British.
No Deal strategy. It's really very simple - Bargaining 101 in fact. If your opponent knows you want a deal. then your bargaining position becomes impossibly weak.
Exactly. This is where May, and Cameron before the referendum, went so wrong. The EU knew full well they'd never want a no deal Brexit and that they would therefore agree to any deal the EU offered. Even if you were absolutely terrified of leaving with no deal you should still have publicly built it up as an option, started hiring extra customs staff etc and made the EU believe it was on the table. May let the EU walk over her, from the very start when she meekly agreed to their demand that the UK agree the withdrawal before they would talk about the future arrangement. The actual text of Article 50 says they should be negotiated at the same time. She meekly agreed to give the EU what they wanted before they would even let her discuss what the UK wanted.
@@karlbassett8485 The deeper question is: did May and her bureaucrats understand the real way to bargain [ that is be prepared to walk away ] or did they not. If they did understand what game were they playing while they allowed Barnier to walk all over them ; if they did not understand then why were they allowed to participate ? Neither option paints a pretty picture !
The entire point, is that the EU are happy to call us on the no deal bluff because they understand it will hit the UK far harder than the rest of the EU. The last thing the EU wants is for Britain leaving to threaten the project - when you have a powerful alliance, you want to protect it. This is what makes no deal a ridiculously suicidal bluff.
@@crustyoldfart I suspect deep down May wanted to more or less remain, and was surrounded by civil servants who wanted the same. She went from saying "Leaving with no deal will be better than a bad deal" to "We cannot leave with no deal under any circumstance" and the EU knew that. Barnier even said a few weeks ago that May had never once bought up the possibility of leaving with no deal. Who knows if that is true but I can believe it.
@@karlbassett8485 May realised that the threat of no deal was not a powerful tool to use with the EU - they are not happy about it, but they've made it clear they will watch us fall on our own sword if they must.
@@SparkyLabs Imagine having a TLDR for parts of Asia or South America, important places that usually get minimal coverage. The issue with the US is, that there is usually no need for in deepth coverage cause it gets analysed to death by everyone.
@@Arcaryon why do you think TLDR have their own journalists? In the UK and US they are just redistilling existing news. the Uk parliament has it's own live video channel so anyone can "do journalism" if you want to cover poorly reported on areas like you suggest then they would have to fund actual reporters. They have only just gone full time with video production.
@@SparkyLabs I know, I think ahead. Channels like these are simply extremely important to explain the underlining issues for people who unlike myself, can't afford to spend hours reading and understanding the news everyday. It's more of a potential idea in say, a decade or so, should their and simular channels growth continue. People sadly don't spend enough time (and money) on news anymore, which is a grave issue for any democracy. Which is why there need to be alternatives.
@@TheBarca1889 this will not always be true though if you compare nationalist and unionist primary school numbers, there are significantly more nationalist children then unionist. It's just a matter of time the next census in 2021 will be interesting
@@ethandavies8227 It's a fact. That is the recorded vote. Also, Eire has considerably less appetite for a united Ireland than it did a few decades ago.
Well, the EU certainly didn't blink the last time. Also, you failed to discuss if France would even consider giving Johnson an extension, which is pretty important to the entire discussion and the biggest reason why no deal brexit seems inevitable after Johnson was "elected".
I’m not convinced France would. They gain nothing from doing that and they’d hurt Ireland quite badly. France doesn’t want to damage the Eu any more that Brexit already will.
The use of the word " plan " when it comes to the Conservative and Unionist Party , with Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as PM , is very loose use of the word .
@Arwyn It is bit simple! Whatever you think about the EU and all its imperfections I know that we haven't had a war in Northern Europe since 1945 and to me that is worth a lot. You take great joy in attacking the EU but does the great United Kingdom care so well for their people? I heard a lot of stories about child poverty, zero hours contracts, homelessness, cancellations of operations in the NHS, trains that are blocked because of too much heat, too much snow, too much rain. Instead of investing billions in preparation for a no deal Brexit would it not be better to invest in its people, the citizens of the United Kingdom?
@Arwyn It is rather un barbaric to find a solution to a problem if the EU is the solution so be it. I'd rather have peace whatever way it is being achieved. How about the knife crime epedimic your country is slowly getting engulfed in. It started in London but it is spreading to other towns and cities, not too much peace on the home front by the looks of it.
@Arwyn Hmmmmm, I hope you're not from the US because calling the EU barbaric would be a touch rich given that another mass shooting just occured in Texas and the US had the highest incarceration rate in the developed world. Oh and the death penalty and market controlled pharmaceutical prices: real pinnacles of human civilization there. Oh by the way where's you're fusion reactor being built? Oh You don't have one? You mean the US will have to leech off the international project in the South of France. I hope You never needed to that before with things like the discovery of dna, genome mapping, cloning, or any other scientific breakthroughs. It's not like Einstein, Newton, Curie, Nobel or any other scientists came from Europe, oh wait that's right the majority of medical and technological advances over the last 500 years happened in Europe.
@Arwyn I agree partially with you. It is a fact that life is better than before but in the UK there have been to many cuts in budgets or badly implemented cuts. This has caused a lot of anger and frustration. Politicians have been putting the blame on immigrants or in the UK on the EU and immigrants. Ik know that some immigrants have caused trouble that some of them refuse to obey the rule of their host country but the majority wants to integrate. The Brexit has been a gamble from the then prime minister Cameron. He gambled, He lost! What bothers me the most is the constant putting the blame on somebody else. This seem to be the way to do politics anno 2019.
I'll happy speak on the brexit issue, I'm a leaver voter. I've been following the brexit since I stayed up all night watching the vote count. My home town was majority leave. I'm happy for you to interview me on it. Boris johnson is a great leader already, i believe we should have a no-deal then reach america for a free trade deal and set the example that leaving the EU is not as bad as the unelected beurocrats sitting on the EU council make out to be, if we have a no-deal and end up more prosperous that will be a big kick in the balls for EU and other EU countries will take note and maybe have their own brexit.
You missed the most obvious one: Johnson is not bluffing at all. He might just genuinely believe that the EU will bow down in a threat of No-Deal, because he (and other Brexit advocates) dont understand that the EU at its core is not about trade. They dont get what the reason for the EU was in the first place and that trade, single market and once currency etc are all just the means, not the reason, to achieve it. For them, its all about the money, but the EU was founded with a other goal and they value the preservance of that goal more than any damage Brexit may cause financially. Sometimes I do wonder, though, if TLDR News knows what the main reason for creating the EU (for lack of a better term, since it went to many iterations) was ...
@NPC Knuckles You don't seem to understand the the EU is the sum of its members, it's not a separated entity. The EU is and will be as big as *ITS MEMBERS* want it to be. It's a democracy, we elect our representatives, it's not a shitty monarchy with unelected people in a House of Lords. The EU is the best thing that happened in Europe in over 2 millennia. If you don't like it, get the fuck out instead of pretending you want to, yet begging for extension after extension.
Of course Johnson will go for a no deal if the EU doesn't give an inch, anything else would be suicidal for his party and his own career. The Conservatives will drop to 15% again or less if they fail to deliver.
Cedric Blum you don’t need a large percentage drop to be in a worse depression than 1923. No deal will certainly mean recession for EU, but it will mean depression in the UK. And that’s the best case scenario.
@@JasperJanssen the EUs economy is slowing down rapidly while the UKs is getting stronger, hmmmmmm The next recession will come but not because of your paranoid brexit phantasies
From lots of comments here I get the idea that people think that the backstop is about creating a border between Ireland (in EU) and Northern Ireland (out of EU). The opposite is however the fact. The backstop has been introduced to prevent a border. Maybe TLDR should make another video to clear this up.
@@JoshuaHillerup Wouldn't say 'bright', but I think that looking at his past and what he's said and done it looks like he probably would have a more realistic picture about his country and government's position in the international space, at least compared to those who's been supporting him (or some 'hardline Brexiteers'). You also need to realize that he's no Trump. Trump was always only a businessmen, while Boris is somehow a veteran in politics, especially being a former mayor of London as a conservative, which I believe is increasingly liberal, and being the Foreign secretary for May. I think that he's probably seen a better picture by now.
@@JoshuaHillerup I've listened to a fair number of his speeches and he comes across well to me. He can be funny too and he does that very intentionally. I think it takes a certain amount of intelligence to deliver good speeches and have the audience in stitches. And like David Freeman I think his two terms as Mayor showed his ability to achieve and it also demonstrated he surrounds himself with good people. Hence Cummings, who is an arch achiever. He wasn't a businessman, but he was a journalist. He was the chief editor of the Spectator magazine and was very successful in that role which I think he only gave up when he became Mayor. He wrote a book on Churchill which had good reviews. He has a good grip on the Brexit situation. You might not like his politics, his tactics or his style, but he's a clever man.
Great video, I really liked the elaborate speculation video. Maybe you could make a video assuming the scenario that he ACTUALLY wants a no deal, and really believes it's worth it, either for the country or for himself. Nice job.
In my opinion: If Boris wants to negotiate backstop/withdrawal agreement/trade deal he has to come up with a legally possible plan to get something done. Trying to bluff EU won't work.
One would have thought that with all the best and most prestigious legal brain power available in the City, the UK could have managed cooking up at least one such plan the past few years.
@@barthuneker5027 I know. That was exactly my point. Obviously there is no better plan possible. Within the red lines it is the best withdrawal agreement possible. That it still remains somewhat unsatisfactory to both EU and (more to the) UK does not alter that fact. The UK's own red lines practically prohibited any other agreeable legal form of brexit. PM Johnson having added another red line, no extensions of art 50, doesn't suddenly open up new possibilities for legal brains. Adding a new rope to tie up someone already tied by seven other ropes, doesn't magically give that person more freedom of movement. (Pun intended)
@@bosoerjadi2838 I agree totally with you.🙂 He added an extra red line, by promising to leave 31 October. The question now is: can he do what he promised? In theory yes, do nothing, don't ask for an extention, could be enough. But IS it enough? Or will something else happen in the mean time? Interesting times!
@5:23 What about that bill that was passed (amendment 14?) a few weeks ago saying that parliament must meet every two weeks from 1.9.19 to 31.10.19 to discuss (possibly NI)? Doesn’t that put a hole in Johnson’s plans to suspend parliament until the deadline of 31.10?
An alternative reason which I have believed the whole way along: he's trying to justify going back to a Northern Ireland only backstop by removing the legal assurance proposed last year by Jacob Reese-Mogg making it "unlawful for Her Majesty's Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain". Threatening a no deal as the only alternative makes this option look better. It allows Brexit to happen on time, it satisfies most brexiteers (mainly based in Britain rather than NI) in that they can negotiate their own trade deals etc and have control over borders and it is less risky to the union. For those who argue that you can't treat one part of the UK different to another, their point becomes less relevant as by not doing so, you actually risk breaking up the union. A poll by the Irish Independent newspaper showed that a hefty majority in Northern Ireland support the "special arrangements option" with even ~52% of NI unionists supporting it. Many unionists see it as an opportunity and see it as a way of quelling the swing of middle grounders favouring a United Ireland. It's a more stable solution.
Hi Peter. Yes, I should have mentioned that. The question asked which one they would pick if they were the only 2 options. Obviously most would rather neither but that's not being presented as a viable option as it stands. Neither is the sea border of course but it's a direction Boris might take to break the impasse
I hope he will. I would love to see that. This guy shows actually some balls and thinks about a strong EU unlike the German government which thinks only of the corrupted Carindustry. I have to say that as a German
Boris doesn't WANT an extension. Macron would be doing exactly what Boris wants. Boris's bluff is that he still thinks there can be a deal. In private Boris and the cabinet believe the EU will not back down and therefore the UK will leave with no deal, and that is what they are preparing for.
I don't think boris will ask for an extension. He will have left before then. It's good that he has cover for all the different possibilities that may happen. Labour will be terrified to call a general election now because they know they will start losing seats.
@Dan Gleeballs shackled? In chains? The way out has not changed. The EU is not keeping the UK from leaving. It is the UK that comes begging each time for an extension. Don't blame the EU for the UK government's incompetence .
@@JFast-si8xu The way out will change if the backstop is agreed. The backstop means the UK can NEVER leave EU rules unless and until the EU chose to allow it. It could keep the UK under EU rules for decades. That was confirmed by the secret legal advice Theresa May got that she was forced to show Parliament. That for the EU is the whole point of the backstop. That is why they absolutely refuse to remove it.
No bluff, leave on the 31st of October of we will have a Brexit Party Government. If Boris calls an election before the end of October, the Brexit Party will contest every seat, they will not win but they will stop Boris from winning even at the cost of a left wing government, however if he lets the remainders stop Brexit and then calls an election the Tories and Brexit Parties will work together and win. Brexit happens.
My money is on Johnson throwing the DUP under a bus and agreeing to NI staying in the SM and CU. Peace on the island of Ireland is guaranteed. Border down the Irish Sea. GB exits with a deal. No food shortages or riots on the street 😜
Vince McMahon i mean that the current status quo is maintained. No hard border in Ireland. Johnathan Powell, one of the British GFA negotiators, explained why the backstop matters very clearly and succinctly on Newsnight a few days ago. If you want to understand the issues I recommend you watch it
Boris is literally the leader of "The Conservative And Unionist Party". That is the official name for the Tories. Selling out NI would be like the GOP in the US confiscating everyone's guns. It's just not in their DNA.
It would be a sensibile solution. To be fair, the red line of having a UK wide backstop instead of having the backstop only involving Northern Ireland is nonsensical in my opinion. There are already checks between NI and Britain, and to be fair there is not much trade passing through NI towards Britain anyway. Sure, there would be more when the UK leaves, but the implementation period would allow for an enhancement of NI-Britain ports. Trade with the EU would pass from NI instead of Calais, NI would benefit from it, weighting less on UK's budget (NI is still among the poorest parts of the UK atm if I'm not mistaken), and the UK would still have a backdoor access to the EU market. Win-win.
@@AndreaDAcunzo89 An easier option would be for a border between the Irish Republic and the rest of the mainland EU. That way the border in Ireland can be open and the Republic can be in a little free trade area with the UK and goods are checked when traveling to and from the mainland EU. Sound crazy? That is the situation right now for people. Eire isn't in Schengen so every person traveling between Eire and the mainland EU go through passport control and show ID. So why not just do the same for goods? If Eire find it politically fine to have their citizens go through border controls then why is the problem having goods checked?
The kind of nationalism that Johnson and his supporters have confuses me sometimes. The UK has so little bargaining power here, and not a lot of ways to increase it. And if Brexit actually happens, they’ll have even LESS. But these guys seem to think that their country is so “special” and important that they can just demand as they please. As with Brexit in general, where the main idea seemed to be that removing the UK from one of the most profitable markets and trade alliances in the world would somehow make it economically stronger.
What is confusing you is thinking the EU is a "trade alliance", like it's NAFTA or something. It isn't. The EU is a United States Of Europe being formed. NAFTA doesn't have a President, a Parliament, a supreme court, a flag, an anthem, a multi billion dollar budget etc. NAFTA cannot make laws and impose them on member states. NAFTA is not planning to have its own army under its direct control. That is why the UK wants to leave. It does not want to be a mere part of a huge federal nation state. It is about sovereignty and democracy. If you could prove, beyond doubt, that the UK would be say five percent worse off after Brexit I would still vote for it. National identity is important. Ask a Canadian if they'd want Canada to just become another ten states in the US and run from Washington DC and see what they say. Or look at the former Soviet states like Poland, Estonia, Ukraine etc and ask them if they'd be okay going back to soviet rule?
@@StYxXx Ask a Scot about national identity. Scotland has been part of the UK for three hundred years, since we rescued them from bankruptcy after their failed Darien Scheme, yet Scots are still proud Scots. Tell them that national identity is unimportant.
It's funny Boris is so keen to leave in the date selected by the EU, I'm surprised he doesn't say they will leave the 30th no matter what, for "taking back control"'s sake
All of the three strategies you have layed out are sensible, but I think you overestimate the intelectual capabilities of Mr Johnson. Looking at his career suggests, that he does not have any plan at all.
My aunt worked for the EU for decades and generally knows a lot about politics, she said that other than Trump he is very intelligent, he is sadly also irresponsible and a liar.
The most British politicians and spokesmen in responsible positions I remember in the last 50 years were smart and diplomatic towards other countries and won a lot with this approach, they got more things diplomatically done than any other big economy in the world. The UK lost so much the last few years...
Boris is pursuing no deal knowing that the pound would tank. His billionaire backers will be delighted. They must be significantly increasing their fortunes. Boris is doing a sterling job if you pardon the pun.
@@alm434 quite the opposite matey, i am a democrat to the bone . its just that in 2014 the people spoke and the people get to only speak once in such matters
@@alm434 I've heard scottish independence would really hit the UK economically. Something about the gas and oil fields off the scottish coast. About Ireland... don't want to sound condescending, but I never understood the "value" of Ireland. At least not in an economic sense.
Please clarify me: how could Parliament stop Brexit? It’s the PM who can ask for extension, and if there’s a deadline, if that deadline passes with no deal in place, then no way Jose, Parliament can’t really block it
Ed SR parliament is the sovereign of the uk, it can strip that power from the PM and give it to itself (as it already has done earlier this year when it took control of the parliamentary schedule)
A good analysis however Johnson wants a no deal. Read 'The Sovereign Individual' by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg (yes, Jacob's dad) and you'll understand why. It's all about maintaining the UK's tax havens which are threatened by upcoming EU legislation.
Recently you've really been showing your lack of understanding with statements like "the EU thinks the UK will suffer more". That's such a complete misrepresentation of the EU's position. You really need to start understanding the EU position better.
Exactly. It's hard to see that he's not. If he doesn't deliver Brexit on Oct 31, with or without a deal, he's finished and the Conservative Party is finished.
Video: there are many possibilities Comments: The UK will degrade to the mesozoic era because it will not ever be able to trade with the EU efficiently, and since Europe is the only thing that matters, the rest of the world couldn't possibly make up the trade in the worst case scenario. Boris obviously is incompetent and is going against the will of the people, just not the will shown in the referendum: we need to have a best of 3 or until we get the right result.
Yes. It will happen on October 21st (or is it 23rd?, whatever): this side of The Channel nobody is even sweating about it anymore: with May there was some lesser chance of getting things straight, with Johnson the outcome is very clear: Hard Brexit is it.
History has been edited. As well as us always knowing we would only leave with a deal, nobody that voted to leave ever even considered leaving without one. Don't question it, just accept the new facts of project remain. They know what's best for us better than we ever could.
The “exit mechanism” for the backstop - why couldn’t people have just called it a safety net - is an FTA between the EU and the UK. But that will take a few years.
Angrynoodle Twenty Five Well, before the vote, the British public was warned that voting for Brexit would immediately plunge the country into a deep economic recession. Do you remember that recession happening? No? That's because it didn't happen. So Project Fear may dust off its tired, old arguments yet again. We'll see.
Hey I'm a French-Speaking viewer, I can understand your videos that make Brexit easier to understand but it would be much more comfortable for foreign viewers if you had English subtitles other than those generated by RUclips. Would it be possible to have good English subtitles available? Great videos btw, thanks a lot
If that is the case, then that's probably what Johnson brought Dominic Cummings in for. Cummings is a difficult man to read, but the one thing that's pretty clear about him is that he hates the British Civil Service and wants to see it destroyed.
O Declan I hate to break this news to you. But: Sir Humphrey is a fictional character. And it is quite obvious that nobody even remotely resembling him is now active in the UK.
@@herbertpasveer6247 a) the reason Yes Minister was funny was because much of it resembled the real behaviour inside the corridors of power. b) how would you know how what they're up to, unless you yourself are very high up in the Civil Service?
@@alexpotts6520 The fun of the series was that Sir Humphrey always prevented the minister taking stupid actions or doing things that were not well thought about. So it is save to say there is no Sir Humprey around when ministers do al lot of things that are not well thought about. I think the absence of Sir Humprhey is a fact proven beyond any shadow of doubt.
Everyone seems so focused on his words. It baffles me, because when has a politician ever told the truth? He's clearly lying, and the fact everyone is falling for it shows how far our society has fallen.
The ERG is such a wonderful name: It suggests a group of dispassionate academics trying to determine whether Europe exists at all, and if it does, whether the U.K. needs to bother with it.
But its Sovereignty that we always had. It's just UK politicians and newspapers( a lot of shit flung by bojo) made out that the EU was the source of all disliked laws rules etc. Which is lies.
Joining the EU was a sovereign decision, nobody forced UK to, and UK voted against EU laws only 2% of the time. You can leave whenever you want, stop pretending somebody is forcing you to stay.
The EU's Anti Tax Avoidance Directive takes effect in January 2020. Can anyone think of any multi-millionaires who might benefit from offshore tax avoidance, and (completely coincidently) also happen to be very keen for us to Leave before then?
This annoys the bejesus outta me - We were NOT asked if we wanted a Brexit WITH a deal negotiated by the government. We voted to leave - let's leave THEN see how we fare.
Your ignorance annoys the bejesus out of me...The Leave campaign promised Leave with a deal. "Promised" a lot of things that they've conveniently forgotten about, or blamed on others. "We voted to amputate somebody's leg. Let's amputate their leg, and THEN look around to see if we have anything to seal it."
But you were assured by the Leave campaign in 2016 that the UK would “quickly and easily” be able to agree the terms of the UK’s withdrawal & it’s new relationship with the EU “as we hold most of the cards” and that deal “will deliver the exact same benefits as we have currently”. The Vote Leave website even said that “the idea that our trade will suffer…is silly”. Even if you yourself didn’t listen to those assurances, many other people who voted Leave in 2016 did. Given the slender majority of Leave in 2016 Ref, had UK voters known that many of the Leave campaign promises would later prove to be false, there is no way that Leave would have won in 2016.
@@DigitalVanquish People promised many things - but we voted on leaving - there was no addendum that stated we must have a deal on the ballot paper. What I'm getting to here is the referendum was badly thought out and assumptive in it's conclusion. There was no thought of "what if the people voted against it" they just assumed (and to borrow from your analogy -we won't have to worry about the amputation because only fools would agree to it). The EU do not want us to leave for the reasons that we provide a majority of cash into the EU treasury and we can be shut up easily. Think back to the time when they clubbed against us in so many ways - the one that got me was the fisheries fiasco where we kill more than we catch and all our neighbours can fish in our local waters. Lastly, lets talk about the leave campaign. Comprised of cross party politicians that had views and opinions but no power to carry them through - why does what they said matter? They're politicians, that make their living swaying to the political breeze!
And wrong. When Parliament is dissolved the Prime Minister and the Cabinet are still in charge and running the country. It's not like the country has no one in charge for four weeks!
I think his plan is to be PM and then blame everyone else for anything bad that happens. I really doubt he actually cares one way or another so long as he comes out on top afterwards.
Well, the people of non-Metropolitan England and Wales, at least... Scotland, Ulster & all of Greater London all voted >60% to Remain! What a messy bramble-patch of a nightmare!
I'm looking forward to the inevitable video you will open by saying
"We're hoping to reach 5 million subscribes before the UK is set to leave the EU on March 31st 2036"
Big Isaac naaaa.
They can reach 5 million subscribers way before it😂
The EUSSR won't exist by 2036 lmao
Nah it should be 17 million subscribers! :3
Self interest is paramount lmfao 😂
Will there be a UK in 10 year timeframe though?
I assumed Boris' plan is get a no deal then blame the EU for the consequences.
absolutely, hate train is great for campaigning, it worked so well for HItler. I'll be in my bunker
😂😂
@@Yikes575 With a decent stock of food.
Exactly my thoughts. The ERG is closely related to a certain section of high-risk, fast-pace investors who are about the only ones who will profit from a no deal brexit - that is the reason, they are so headstrong about it, consequences be damned. And it looks like Boris will manage to get them their bullseye, with the added bonus of having the electorate be mad at the oh-so-bad EU instead of the turbo-capitalists who drove their plunge into this...
I think that's more Nigel Farrage's strategy.
I'm personally amazed that there is a recess considering the issues faced by the country. It's irresposnibility to the highest degree
As I understand it, this recess is the scheduled time for MPs to go back to their voters and get their opinions. Basically "listen to the people". Canceling it would piss off a lot of people and give brexiteers another thing to point to when saying "They aren't listening to the will of the people!" And only Remainers would want to cancel it as it works in favor of getting Brexit thru.
@@VME-Brad That's a fair point! Thanks :)
themasqueradingcow91 agreed
VME - Brad lol bit naive buddy only remainers want mps in Parliament because that would stop brexit lmao you need to take in some information for once brexit has many forms none of witch has a majority and the irony is this is causing clueless people to moan about democracy 🤦🏻♂️ frankly it’s embarrassing especially when the best explanation is brexit means brexit lmao shlubadubadubdub means brexit too 🤣 but a different type
VME - Brad ok there’s been over 9 recesses in Parliament since the original vote to leave (some were shortened idk if they count) so why then do the majority of mps return claiming their priority is to protect businesses and no brexit deal or plan has a majority still to this day ?
Tldr is ignoring a major 5th option: “Aliens”
Posadist gang
@Martin Hodge
I suppose rescue by aliens is the modern equivalent of divine intervention ;-)
Boris' hair is tentacles in disguise.
He looks a bit like a reptiloid wearing a human skinsuit.
And even a 6th option, unicorns! 😂
Most likely, Johnson is fine with a No Deal. If it works out fine for the UK - he delivered it!
If it turns out bad (like everybody who knows a thing or two assumes), he'll blame the EU, the Irish, anybody for it.
An outside enemy is always great to rally the electorate behind you.
So... Win-win for Johnson.
derfinsterling Oh well, at least it's also a win for the UK.
There are more than a few knowledgeable and intelligent people who say a no deal Brexit will be fine. Like ex Bank Of England boss Sir Mervyn King for example. If you think about it leaving with no deal means we'd have no free trade deal with the EU. But countries like the USA and China do not have a free trade deal with the EU and they manage okay. What exactly is the problem?
Karl Bassett The problem is that the stated goal of "ever closer union" has turned a trading block in the 70s into a political empire in the 2000s. This is not what the UK signed up for.
@@XalphYT I agree. In the 70s the British public were told the then Common Market was a mere free trade area. But treaties like Maastricht and Lisbon turned it into a political union, a United States Of Europe. We the British didn't get a say. No vote, no referendum, nothing. The Irish, because their constitution says matters of sovereignty must be decided by referendum, got a vote. But we didn't.
@@karlbassett8485 because most of US and China trade are not with EU you dumbass.
I just assumed Boris would just constantly repeat 'Wibble wobble huzah!!!' and hope everything works out
There is another possibility: Boris doesn't really have a plan.
Based on the reporting coming out of the EU today, it would seem that this possibility may be more real than I originally joked.
Nobody seems to have a plan,There Politicians and they never speak the truth.
It's BoJo, which means he hasn't got a plan but a fairly shrewd idea about how to blame someone else when everything goes to the crapper.
Fredrik Dunge
The US economy shows signs of entering a big recession soon.
If UK wants to fuck their economy and the EU economy right now, this is the worst timing ever as it screams world wide economic recession.
Oh well, if everything goes to shit we will witness in real time the breakup of the UK.
hold on... that was not more or less the SAME bluff that Cameron try and fail that start that all mess?
UK: We need to leave the EU to take back control of our own borders!
EU: Erm, OK! We will continue to control our borders, including Ireland.
UK: OMG you are so unfair!!!
Such a dumb point, Ireland is the one being damaged the most by a hard border. That's why Ireland wants the backstop so much, but this demand will it make actually more likely for a hard border and a no deal brexit.
@@TheBarca1889 Either way there is no solution for the Irish border. The backstop is just a stop gap measure that will only delay the issue and seeing how useless the UK has become at solving problems it's gonna stay an issue forever. So if the UK breakshit without a deal then so be it. They're the idiots either way.
Cedric Blum the problem is that no backstop means just as hard a border as no deal. There is no downside here for Ireland.
The only way to avoid an Irish hard border is a) have a hard border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the uk or b) a hard border between Ireland and the rest of the EU.
Neither of those are an option.
@@TheBarca1889 What a dump point. Ireland has nothing to fear. The troubles will get reignited in NI not in Eire. And the Republic of Ireland is backed by 500 million EUropeans and their economic power. We built Ireland up once we will do it again. On the other side of the newly established border the UK will disintegrate in a snap...and you know that ;-)
@@popelgruner595 there are no troubles anymore in NI, I know you irish nationalists wish this to be different and still dream of killing british soldiers, but the actual people in NI have mostly risen above this sectarian racist BS you still wish to peddle. Ulster is British, was British, stays British.
This new season of Brexit is lit 🔥🔥
possibly quite literally.
No Deal strategy. It's really very simple - Bargaining 101 in fact. If your opponent knows you want a deal. then your bargaining position becomes impossibly weak.
Exactly. This is where May, and Cameron before the referendum, went so wrong. The EU knew full well they'd never want a no deal Brexit and that they would therefore agree to any deal the EU offered. Even if you were absolutely terrified of leaving with no deal you should still have publicly built it up as an option, started hiring extra customs staff etc and made the EU believe it was on the table. May let the EU walk over her, from the very start when she meekly agreed to their demand that the UK agree the withdrawal before they would talk about the future arrangement. The actual text of Article 50 says they should be negotiated at the same time. She meekly agreed to give the EU what they wanted before they would even let her discuss what the UK wanted.
@@karlbassett8485 The deeper question is: did May and her bureaucrats understand the real way to bargain [ that is be prepared to walk away ] or did they not. If they did understand what game were they playing while they allowed Barnier to walk all over them ; if they did not understand then why were they allowed to participate ?
Neither option paints a pretty picture !
The entire point, is that the EU are happy to call us on the no deal bluff because they understand it will hit the UK far harder than the rest of the EU. The last thing the EU wants is for Britain leaving to threaten the project - when you have a powerful alliance, you want to protect it. This is what makes no deal a ridiculously suicidal bluff.
@@crustyoldfart I suspect deep down May wanted to more or less remain, and was surrounded by civil servants who wanted the same. She went from saying "Leaving with no deal will be better than a bad deal" to "We cannot leave with no deal under any circumstance" and the EU knew that. Barnier even said a few weeks ago that May had never once bought up the possibility of leaving with no deal. Who knows if that is true but I can believe it.
@@karlbassett8485 May realised that the threat of no deal was not a powerful tool to use with the EU - they are not happy about it, but they've made it clear they will watch us fall on our own sword if they must.
The impression that the Scottish and Welsh leaders got from meeting him was that was the way he was heading.
*Chances of independence rising*
delusional
Welsh? They vote to leave
Northern Ireland should vote to leave the UK:) Solves a lot of problems.
@@roadrage9191 Causes a lot of new ones but yeah, in comparison it may be the better option.
@@manorexia1964 Ye they did but they have clearly stated they are against no deal. Their goverment published an update.
Hey man love your vids, have you ever thought of a worldwide tldr news to cover other places like Australia and the Eu?
They have TLDR USA
@@SparkyLabs Imagine having a TLDR for parts of Asia or South America, important places that usually get minimal coverage.
The issue with the US is, that there is usually no need for in deepth coverage cause it gets analysed to death by everyone.
@@Arcaryon why do you think TLDR have their own journalists? In the UK and US they are just redistilling existing news. the Uk parliament has it's own live video channel so anyone can "do journalism" if you want to cover poorly reported on areas like you suggest then they would have to fund actual reporters. They have only just gone full time with video production.
@@SparkyLabs I know, I think ahead. Channels like these are simply extremely important to explain the underlining issues for people who unlike myself, can't afford to spend hours reading and understanding the news everyday. It's more of a potential idea in say, a decade or so, should their and simular channels growth continue. People sadly don't spend enough time (and money) on news anymore, which is a grave issue for any democracy.
Which is why there need to be alternatives.
Way to much segregation between views.
What's the likelihood of a United Ireland now? Asking for a friend...
Or independent Scotland?
there are more unionists than nationalists in northern ireland, there is actually no chance of this happening, and the unrest would be incredible :D
@@TheBarca1889 this will not always be true though if you compare nationalist and unionist primary school numbers, there are significantly more nationalist children then unionist. It's just a matter of time the next census in 2021 will be interesting
@@stacyharrington504 Ahem* are you sure about that?
@@ethandavies8227 It's a fact. That is the recorded vote. Also, Eire has considerably less appetite for a united Ireland than it did a few decades ago.
Well, the EU certainly didn't blink the last time.
Also, you failed to discuss if France would even consider giving Johnson an extension, which is pretty important to the entire discussion and the biggest reason why no deal brexit seems inevitable after Johnson was "elected".
France?
@@thecognacsipper it has to be a unanimous decision for the UK to get a extension and there is a real good chance France will say no
@@nertz4579 thank you!
@@thecognacsipper Your welcome
I’m not convinced France would. They gain nothing from doing that and they’d hurt Ireland quite badly. France doesn’t want to damage the Eu any more that Brexit already will.
“Let us release the video.” No one is stopping you.
I hate when channels do that sort of thing for like.
Boris deserves to be PM. He helped creating the Brexit mess and now should be dealing with it.
At least more than Farage deserves to be MEP...
The use of the word " plan " when it comes to the Conservative and Unionist Party , with Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as PM , is very loose use of the word .
He has a 'cunning' plan 😉
Their supply and confidence deal comes to an end at the end of the summer anyway, if he's planning to call a general election, why would he renew it?
And you are a idiot.
How has Johnson appointed a 'largely pro no-deal cabinet' when 13 of his cabinet were remain voters and only 7 were leave voters?
Oh you know, politicians are just on the stage to keep everyone distracted.
Because Boris is a closet remainer?
Bluffing the electorate.
"insanely close" and "mental" do sound like core Brexit values.
He's probably making it up as he goes. Let's face it the situation is so fluid that there isn't much else he can do.
@Arwyn
The EU isn't half as protectionist as the US.
The US is practically run by companies who defend their interests, not those of the people.
@Arwyn It is bit simple! Whatever you think about the EU and all its imperfections I know that we haven't had a war in Northern Europe since 1945 and to me that is worth a lot. You take great joy in attacking the EU but does the great United Kingdom care so well for their people? I heard a lot of stories about child poverty, zero hours contracts, homelessness, cancellations of operations in the NHS, trains that are blocked because of too much heat, too much snow, too much rain. Instead of investing billions in preparation for a no deal Brexit would it not be better to invest in its people, the citizens of the United Kingdom?
@Arwyn It is rather un barbaric to find a solution to a problem if the EU is the solution so be it. I'd rather have peace whatever way it is being achieved. How about the knife crime epedimic your country is slowly getting engulfed in. It started in London but it is spreading to other towns and cities, not too much peace on the home front by the looks of it.
@Arwyn Hmmmmm, I hope you're not from the US because calling the EU barbaric would be a touch rich given that another mass shooting just occured in Texas and the US had the highest incarceration rate in the developed world. Oh and the death penalty and market controlled pharmaceutical prices: real pinnacles of human civilization there. Oh by the way where's you're fusion reactor being built? Oh You don't have one? You mean the US will have to leech off the international project in the South of France. I hope You never needed to that before with things like the discovery of dna, genome mapping, cloning, or any other scientific breakthroughs. It's not like Einstein, Newton, Curie, Nobel or any other scientists came from Europe, oh wait that's right the majority of medical and technological advances over the last 500 years happened in Europe.
@Arwyn I agree partially with you. It is a fact that life is better than before but in the UK there have been to many cuts in budgets or badly implemented cuts. This has caused a lot of anger and frustration. Politicians have been putting the blame on immigrants or in the UK on the EU and immigrants. Ik know that some immigrants have caused trouble that some of them refuse to obey the rule of their host country but the majority wants to integrate.
The Brexit has been a gamble from the then prime minister Cameron. He gambled, He lost!
What bothers me the most is the constant putting the blame on somebody else. This seem to be the way to do politics anno 2019.
I'll happy speak on the brexit issue, I'm a leaver voter. I've been following the brexit since I stayed up all night watching the vote count. My home town was majority leave. I'm happy for you to interview me on it. Boris johnson is a great leader already, i believe we should have a no-deal then reach america for a free trade deal and set the example that leaving the EU is not as bad as the unelected beurocrats sitting on the EU council make out to be, if we have a no-deal and end up more prosperous that will be a big kick in the balls for EU and other EU countries will take note and maybe have their own brexit.
You missed the most obvious one: Johnson is not bluffing at all. He might just genuinely believe that the EU will bow down in a threat of No-Deal, because he (and other Brexit advocates) dont understand that the EU at its core is not about trade. They dont get what the reason for the EU was in the first place and that trade, single market and once currency etc are all just the means, not the reason, to achieve it. For them, its all about the money, but the EU was founded with a other goal and they value the preservance of that goal more than any damage Brexit may cause financially.
Sometimes I do wonder, though, if TLDR News knows what the main reason for creating the EU (for lack of a better term, since it went to many iterations) was ...
To be fair, trade and peace are often interlinked. If you trade with a country then you are disicnetivised from trying to destroy them.
@NPC Knuckles
Nonsense.
The EU *IS* its member states, and the Treaty of Lisbon is far superior to UK's uncodified invisible "constitution."
@NPC Knuckles Well then all hail the glorious European Empire!
I hope the Emperor looks handsome, finally a good looking leader instead of a mophead
@NPC Knuckles
You don't seem to understand the the EU is the sum of its members, it's not a separated entity.
The EU is and will be as big as *ITS MEMBERS* want it to be.
It's a democracy, we elect our representatives, it's not a shitty monarchy with unelected people in a House of Lords.
The EU is the best thing that happened in Europe in over 2 millennia.
If you don't like it, get the fuck out instead of pretending you want to, yet begging for extension after extension.
@NPC Knuckles
The standards and the moral code of the representatives we elected for the job.
DO you understand how democracy works?
You didn't mention your Patreon and Instagram stuff, I'm shocked
Crying and shaking rn
They take any currency, money orders or cash. In fact anything to promote their lifestyle.
The constant campaigning for support is getting irksome.
@@hunterG60k they drowning viewers with more begging than an Indian leppar
Laura McKinlay - it’s really gross tbh...
Of course Johnson will go for a no deal if the EU doesn't give an inch, anything else would be suicidal for his party and his own career. The Conservatives will drop to 15% again or less if they fail to deliver.
Interest of the party above british people?
See above.
Cedric Blum you don’t need a large percentage drop to be in a worse depression than 1923. No deal will certainly mean recession for EU, but it will mean depression in the UK. And that’s the best case scenario.
@@JasperJanssen There are no economic model that predicts a recession in the EU with a no-deal
@@JasperJanssen the EUs economy is slowing down rapidly while the UKs is getting stronger, hmmmmmm
The next recession will come but not because of your paranoid brexit phantasies
From lots of comments here I get the idea that people think that the backstop is about creating a border between Ireland (in EU) and Northern Ireland (out of EU). The opposite is however the fact. The backstop has been introduced to prevent a border. Maybe TLDR should make another video to clear this up.
There's also the possibility that he doesn't have a good understanding of the situation, and isn't listening to anyone that does.
Unlikely. He's a bright man and he has Cummings working for him.
@@myla6135 what makes you think he's bright?
@@JoshuaHillerup Wouldn't say 'bright', but I think that looking at his past and what he's said and done it looks like he probably would have a more realistic picture about his country and government's position in the international space, at least compared to those who's been supporting him (or some 'hardline Brexiteers'). You also need to realize that he's no Trump. Trump was always only a businessmen, while Boris is somehow a veteran in politics, especially being a former mayor of London as a conservative, which I believe is increasingly liberal, and being the Foreign secretary for May. I think that he's probably seen a better picture by now.
@@JoshuaHillerup
I've listened to a fair number of his speeches and he comes across well to me. He can be funny too and he does that very intentionally. I think it takes a certain amount of intelligence to deliver good speeches and have the audience in stitches.
And like David Freeman I think his two terms as Mayor showed his ability to achieve and it also demonstrated he surrounds himself with good people. Hence Cummings, who is an arch achiever.
He wasn't a businessman, but he was a journalist. He was the chief editor of the Spectator magazine and was very successful in that role which I think he only gave up when he became Mayor. He wrote a book on Churchill which had good reviews.
He has a good grip on the Brexit situation. You might not like his politics, his tactics or his style, but he's a clever man.
He talks like an utter plonker barely ever speaking in coherent sentences or answering any questions.
I really appreciate the simplicity and visuals
Option 4: he’s bluffing himself.
Great video, I really liked the elaborate speculation video.
Maybe you could make a video assuming the scenario that he ACTUALLY wants a no deal, and really believes it's worth it, either for the country or for himself.
Nice job.
In my opinion: If Boris wants to negotiate backstop/withdrawal agreement/trade deal he has to come up with a legally possible plan to get something done. Trying to bluff EU won't work.
He is bluffing the EU and the UK-parliament at the same time. He doesn't care which of them gives in first.
One would have thought that with all the best and most prestigious legal brain power available in the City, the UK could have managed cooking up at least one such plan the past few years.
@@bosoerjadi2838 They had! It was May's deal, but that was rejected by Parliament.
@@barthuneker5027 I know. That was exactly my point. Obviously there is no better plan possible. Within the red lines it is the best withdrawal agreement possible. That it still remains somewhat unsatisfactory to both EU and (more to the) UK does not alter that fact. The UK's own red lines practically prohibited any other agreeable legal form of brexit.
PM Johnson having added another red line, no extensions of art 50, doesn't suddenly open up new possibilities for legal brains. Adding a new rope to tie up someone already tied by seven other ropes, doesn't magically give that person more freedom of movement. (Pun intended)
@@bosoerjadi2838 I agree totally with you.🙂 He added an extra red line, by promising to leave 31 October. The question now is: can he do what he promised? In theory yes, do nothing, don't ask for an extention, could be enough. But IS it enough? Or will something else happen in the mean time? Interesting times!
"Which, let's be honest, is mental" - I feel this could apply to the last 3 years.
@5:23 What about that bill that was passed (amendment 14?) a few weeks ago saying that parliament must meet every two weeks from 1.9.19 to 31.10.19 to discuss (possibly NI)? Doesn’t that put a hole in Johnson’s plans to suspend parliament until the deadline of 31.10?
It does, but prorogueing parliament until then still makes it way harder to stop no deal
An alternative reason which I have believed the whole way along: he's trying to justify going back to a Northern Ireland only backstop by removing the legal assurance proposed last year by Jacob Reese-Mogg making it "unlawful for Her Majesty's Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain". Threatening a no deal as the only alternative makes this option look better. It allows Brexit to happen on time, it satisfies most brexiteers (mainly based in Britain rather than NI) in that they can negotiate their own trade deals etc and have control over borders and it is less risky to the union. For those who argue that you can't treat one part of the UK different to another, their point becomes less relevant as by not doing so, you actually risk breaking up the union. A poll by the Irish Independent newspaper showed that a hefty majority in Northern Ireland support the "special arrangements option" with even ~52% of NI unionists supporting it. Many unionists see it as an opportunity and see it as a way of quelling the swing of middle grounders favouring a United Ireland. It's a more stable solution.
James they only support it as an alternative to a hard border. There is no good outcome here for anyone in NI.
Hi Peter. Yes, I should have mentioned that. The question asked which one they would pick if they were the only 2 options. Obviously most would rather neither but that's not being presented as a viable option as it stands. Neither is the sea border of course but it's a direction Boris might take to break the impasse
I would love to see boris his face when macron refuses an extension.
I hope he will. I would love to see that. This guy shows actually some balls and thinks about a strong EU unlike the German government which thinks only of the corrupted Carindustry. I have to say that as a German
Boris doesn't WANT an extension. Macron would be doing exactly what Boris wants. Boris's bluff is that he still thinks there can be a deal. In private Boris and the cabinet believe the EU will not back down and therefore the UK will leave with no deal, and that is what they are preparing for.
I don't think boris will ask for an extension. He will have left before then. It's good that he has cover for all the different possibilities that may happen. Labour will be terrified to call a general election now because they know they will start losing seats.
@Dan Gleeballs shackled? In chains? The way out has not changed. The EU is not keeping the UK from leaving. It is the UK that comes begging each time for an extension. Don't blame the EU for the UK government's incompetence .
@@JFast-si8xu The way out will change if the backstop is agreed. The backstop means the UK can NEVER leave EU rules unless and until the EU chose to allow it. It could keep the UK under EU rules for decades. That was confirmed by the secret legal advice Theresa May got that she was forced to show Parliament. That for the EU is the whole point of the backstop. That is why they absolutely refuse to remove it.
No bluff, leave on the 31st of October of we will have a Brexit Party Government. If Boris calls an election before the end of October, the Brexit Party will contest every seat, they will not win but they will stop Boris from winning even at the cost of a left wing government, however if he lets the remainders stop Brexit and then calls an election the Tories and Brexit Parties will work together and win. Brexit happens.
My money is on Johnson throwing the DUP under a bus and agreeing to NI staying in the SM and CU. Peace on the island of Ireland is guaranteed. Border down the Irish Sea. GB exits with a deal. No food shortages or riots on the street 😜
You mean to give Nothern Ireland to the irish or make it a completely independent state?
Vince McMahon i mean that the current status quo is maintained. No hard border in Ireland. Johnathan Powell, one of the British GFA negotiators, explained why the backstop matters very clearly and succinctly on Newsnight a few days ago. If you want to understand the issues I recommend you watch it
Boris is literally the leader of "The Conservative And Unionist Party". That is the official name for the Tories. Selling out NI would be like the GOP in the US confiscating everyone's guns. It's just not in their DNA.
It would be a sensibile solution. To be fair, the red line of having a UK wide backstop instead of having the backstop only involving Northern Ireland is nonsensical in my opinion. There are already checks between NI and Britain, and to be fair there is not much trade passing through NI towards Britain anyway. Sure, there would be more when the UK leaves, but the implementation period would allow for an enhancement of NI-Britain ports. Trade with the EU would pass from NI instead of Calais, NI would benefit from it, weighting less on UK's budget (NI is still among the poorest parts of the UK atm if I'm not mistaken), and the UK would still have a backdoor access to the EU market. Win-win.
@@AndreaDAcunzo89 An easier option would be for a border between the Irish Republic and the rest of the mainland EU. That way the border in Ireland can be open and the Republic can be in a little free trade area with the UK and goods are checked when traveling to and from the mainland EU.
Sound crazy? That is the situation right now for people. Eire isn't in Schengen so every person traveling between Eire and the mainland EU go through passport control and show ID. So why not just do the same for goods? If Eire find it politically fine to have their citizens go through border controls then why is the problem having goods checked?
I’ve been following this channel for a long time but it’s getting worse with the ads! Two ads every two minutes is just ridiculous.
Especially considering they get more income from merch and donations than ever before
There are at least 3 strategies you have missed. They are same as you have described, the only difference is that Johnson is not bluffing!
Underrated.
The kind of nationalism that Johnson and his supporters have confuses me sometimes.
The UK has so little bargaining power here, and not a lot of ways to increase it. And if Brexit actually happens, they’ll have even LESS.
But these guys seem to think that their country is so “special” and important that they can just demand as they please.
As with Brexit in general, where the main idea seemed to be that removing the UK from one of the most profitable markets and trade alliances in the world would somehow make it economically stronger.
What is confusing you is thinking the EU is a "trade alliance", like it's NAFTA or something. It isn't. The EU is a United States Of Europe being formed. NAFTA doesn't have a President, a Parliament, a supreme court, a flag, an anthem, a multi billion dollar budget etc. NAFTA cannot make laws and impose them on member states. NAFTA is not planning to have its own army under its direct control.
That is why the UK wants to leave. It does not want to be a mere part of a huge federal nation state. It is about sovereignty and democracy. If you could prove, beyond doubt, that the UK would be say five percent worse off after Brexit I would still vote for it. National identity is important. Ask a Canadian if they'd want Canada to just become another ten states in the US and run from Washington DC and see what they say. Or look at the former Soviet states like Poland, Estonia, Ukraine etc and ask them if they'd be okay going back to soviet rule?
@@karlbassett8485 "National identity is important"? Why? And what about Scotland being part of the UK?
@@StYxXx Ask a Scot about national identity. Scotland has been part of the UK for three hundred years, since we rescued them from bankruptcy after their failed Darien Scheme, yet Scots are still proud Scots. Tell them that national identity is unimportant.
BoJo is bluffing the analysts.
It's funny Boris is so keen to leave in the date selected by the EU, I'm surprised he doesn't say they will leave the 30th no matter what, for "taking back control"'s sake
All of the three strategies you have layed out are sensible, but I think you overestimate the intelectual capabilities of Mr Johnson. Looking at his career suggests, that he does not have any plan at all.
Big mistake underestimating Boris Johnson
He's PM of a major economy. Have a bit of perspective and don't assume he's stupid just because you don't like him.
My aunt worked for the EU for decades and generally knows a lot about politics, she said that other than Trump he is very intelligent, he is sadly also irresponsible and a liar.
The most British politicians and spokesmen in responsible positions I remember in the last 50 years were smart and diplomatic towards other countries and won a lot with this approach, they got more things diplomatically done than any other big economy in the world. The UK lost so much the last few years...
Thanks for the job, good analysis :)
Welcome to another of our BORIS EXPLAINED videos
I subscribed at 8k and now we are here, congrats lads
Boris is pursuing no deal knowing that the pound would tank. His billionaire backers will be delighted. They must be significantly increasing their fortunes. Boris is doing a sterling job if you pardon the pun.
What software do you use for these animations? Is it after effects or adobe Animator? I appreciate very much your answer and congrats for your videos!
This shit is wild, should make for excellent television or a netflix original!
No, the plot would be rejected for being too unbelievable
That just about sums it up; a bluff followed by a bluff followed by another bluff.
Better leave with no deal than an eternal limbo.
Yes, that's the thing. UK would most likely break down. Have you seen Scottish independence polls?
NI is not massively Pro UK as it once was either.
@@alm434 who cares about the Scottish polls? Those twats had their vote, next ones in 100 years
@@harry-matakios1344 How would you stop it? Don't like democracy Hy?
@@alm434 quite the opposite matey, i am a democrat to the bone . its just that in 2014 the people spoke and the people get to only speak once in such matters
@@alm434 I've heard scottish independence would really hit the UK economically. Something about the gas and oil fields off the scottish coast. About Ireland... don't want to sound condescending, but I never understood the "value" of Ireland. At least not in an economic sense.
Your reporting on this topic is getting better and better.
Prorogueation would be super difficult, barely a convenience
Democracy is tight! :D
It seems like TLDR news has slowed down drastically. Hope to see some updates soon.
Especially considering they get more money from merch or donations than before
Bogus Johnson
Please clarify me: how could Parliament stop Brexit? It’s the PM who can ask for extension, and if there’s a deadline, if that deadline passes with no deal in place, then no way Jose, Parliament can’t really block it
Ed SR parliament is the sovereign of the uk, it can strip that power from the PM and give it to itself (as it already has done earlier this year when it took control of the parliamentary schedule)
They can revoke the article actually. Which effectively stops the entire brexit process
A good analysis however Johnson wants a no deal. Read 'The Sovereign Individual' by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg (yes, Jacob's dad) and you'll understand why. It's all about maintaining the UK's tax havens which are threatened by upcoming EU legislation.
Recently you've really been showing your lack of understanding with statements like "the EU thinks the UK will suffer more". That's such a complete misrepresentation of the EU's position. You really need to start understanding the EU position better.
Or... he's not bluffing?
Exactly. It's hard to see that he's not. If he doesn't deliver Brexit on Oct 31, with or without a deal, he's finished and the Conservative Party is finished.
Say it with me: IT'S - A FUCKING - BLUFF
Video: there are many possibilities
Comments: The UK will degrade to the mesozoic era because it will not ever be able to trade with the EU efficiently, and since Europe is the only thing that matters, the rest of the world couldn't possibly make up the trade in the worst case scenario. Boris obviously is incompetent and is going against the will of the people, just not the will shown in the referendum: we need to have a best of 3 or until we get the right result.
Love you guys!
You should do a video on how the Spectre of British imperialism affected the Brexit process
CLASSIC TLDR BEING BIASED REMOANERS !!!!1!!!1!!1!1
jk, I'm a "remoaner" myself
There may be a 'No Deal' but will Johnson be the PM when it happens?
Yes. It will happen on October 21st (or is it 23rd?, whatever): this side of The Channel nobody is even sweating about it anymore: with May there was some lesser chance of getting things straight, with Johnson the outcome is very clear: Hard Brexit is it.
What the Hell does a "Deal" have to do with Brexit?
The vote was to leave the EU, it said nothing about a "deal."
History has been edited. As well as us always knowing we would only leave with a deal, nobody that voted to leave ever even considered leaving without one. Don't question it, just accept the new facts of project remain. They know what's best for us better than we ever could.
1:10 Video start. Seriously, the social media/channel promotions have gotten out of hand... it’s gross.
The “exit mechanism” for the backstop - why couldn’t people have just called it a safety net - is an FTA between the EU and the UK. But that will take a few years.
y'all seem to have a very optimistic view of brexit...
Angrynoodle Twenty Five Well, before the vote, the British public was warned that voting for Brexit would immediately plunge the country into a deep economic recession. Do you remember that recession happening? No? That's because it didn't happen. So Project Fear may dust off its tired, old arguments yet again. We'll see.
Hey I'm a French-Speaking viewer, I can understand your videos that make Brexit easier to understand but it would be much more comfortable for foreign viewers if you had English subtitles other than those generated by RUclips. Would it be possible to have good English subtitles available? Great videos btw, thanks a lot
So, he's playing chicken... & by that I mean he's just driving directly at other drivers & hoping that he'll somehow survive
Could we get a list of your citations please? c:
Ahh, I see you have reached 4th stage of grief, this is definitely bargaining. It has taken long enough.
wtf was with that short music part? It was louder than the rest and almost threw me off the chair. Please don't do that...
1:10 video start
@3:42 Exactly. There are probably a good few very clever Sir Humphreys behind the scenes steering the boat invisibly but subtly away from No Deal.....
If that is the case, then that's probably what Johnson brought Dominic Cummings in for. Cummings is a difficult man to read, but the one thing that's pretty clear about him is that he hates the British Civil Service and wants to see it destroyed.
O Declan I hate to break this news to you. But: Sir Humphrey is a fictional character. And it is quite obvious that nobody even remotely resembling him is now active in the UK.
@@herbertpasveer6247 a) the reason Yes Minister was funny was because much of it resembled the real behaviour inside the corridors of power.
b) how would you know how what they're up to, unless you yourself are very high up in the Civil Service?
@@alexpotts6520 "We always knew there was going to be a minister, Minister."
@@alexpotts6520 The fun of the series was that Sir Humphrey always prevented the minister taking stupid actions or doing things that were not well thought about. So it is save to say there is no Sir Humprey around when ministers do al lot of things that are not well thought about. I think the absence of Sir Humprhey is a fact proven beyond any shadow of doubt.
Everyone seems so focused on his words. It baffles me, because when has a politician ever told the truth? He's clearly lying, and the fact everyone is falling for it shows how far our society has fallen.
Given the critical timing, the most likely outcome now looks to be an accidental no-deal exit.
No, the most likely outcome is an extension + GE
Well, thanks for giving Johnson ideas.
Please do a video covering the ERG! (And their impact on the government, their members and intentions)
The ERG is such a wonderful name: It suggests a group of dispassionate academics trying to determine whether Europe exists at all, and if it does, whether the U.K. needs to bother with it.
This isn't TLDR anymore
Who says EU wants to (still) negotiate? How much has it got to lose, a "whole" Europe against each other?
At its simplistic, No DEAL is the price of Sovereignty.
But its Sovereignty that we always had. It's just UK politicians and newspapers( a lot of shit flung by bojo) made out that the EU was the source of all disliked laws rules etc. Which is lies.
Joining the EU was a sovereign decision, nobody forced UK to, and UK voted against EU laws only 2% of the time.
You can leave whenever you want, stop pretending somebody is forcing you to stay.
The EU's Anti Tax Avoidance Directive takes effect in January 2020. Can anyone think of any multi-millionaires who might benefit from offshore tax avoidance, and (completely coincidently) also happen to be very keen for us to Leave before then?
You lost me after such a long subscribe intro. Bye
Video starts at 1:10
This annoys the bejesus outta me - We were NOT asked if we wanted a Brexit WITH a deal negotiated by the government. We voted to leave - let's leave THEN see how we fare.
You seem to have lost your grasp on the realaties of how countries work. Here have a cookie.
That's like saying "I want a divorce" but don't know what you want from it. Who gets the car, house and kids?
Your ignorance annoys the bejesus out of me...The Leave campaign promised Leave with a deal. "Promised" a lot of things that they've conveniently forgotten about, or blamed on others.
"We voted to amputate somebody's leg. Let's amputate their leg, and THEN look around to see if we have anything to seal it."
But you were assured by the Leave campaign in 2016 that the UK would “quickly and easily” be able to agree the terms of the UK’s withdrawal & it’s new relationship with the EU “as we hold most of the cards” and that deal “will deliver the exact same benefits as we have currently”. The Vote Leave website even said that “the idea that our trade will suffer…is silly”. Even if you yourself didn’t listen to those assurances, many other people who voted Leave in 2016 did. Given the slender majority of Leave in 2016 Ref, had UK voters known that many of the Leave campaign promises would later prove to be false, there is no way that Leave would have won in 2016.
@@DigitalVanquish People promised many things - but we voted on leaving - there was no addendum that stated we must have a deal on the ballot paper. What I'm getting to here is the referendum was badly thought out and assumptive in it's conclusion. There was no thought of "what if the people voted against it" they just assumed (and to borrow from your analogy -we won't have to worry about the amputation because only fools would agree to it).
The EU do not want us to leave for the reasons that we provide a majority of cash into the EU treasury and we can be shut up easily. Think back to the time when they clubbed against us in so many ways - the one that got me was the fisheries fiasco where we kill more than we catch and all our neighbours can fish in our local waters.
Lastly, lets talk about the leave campaign. Comprised of cross party politicians that had views and opinions but no power to carry them through - why does what they said matter? They're politicians, that make their living swaying to the political breeze!
Really looking forward to the new office tour video once you guys get those subscribers!
Remain perspective, just stating the truth...
"There would literally be no government in place to deal with the impact of no deal"
"Which, let's be honest. Would be MENTAL"
Haha love it
And wrong. When Parliament is dissolved the Prime Minister and the Cabinet are still in charge and running the country. It's not like the country has no one in charge for four weeks!
i hope uk will leave eu with no agreement :X
I think his plan is to be PM and then blame everyone else for anything bad that happens. I really doubt he actually cares one way or another so long as he comes out on top afterwards.
Let's be honest. He doesn't have a plan. He just wanted to grab power.
Lol, tldr will be here for about 20 years. Just as long as Brexit.
Love your work
No Deal is what we the people voted for. No Deal 😎👍
Well, the people of non-Metropolitan England and Wales, at least... Scotland, Ulster & all of Greater London all voted >60% to Remain! What a messy bramble-patch of a nightmare!
@@HarryC-Smith Thank God common sense and Democracy provailed. No Deal 😁👍
"BEFORE WE START" over and over and over and over...
Missed out the most likely reason - Johnson wants no deal because he will have significant financial gain from a weak pound and by avoiding ATAD.
Thank you sharing.
EU - the negotiations are over
Tories - we won’t open renegotiations until the backstop is removed
The Brexit Delusion