Are Programmers Obsolete?
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 27 дек 2023
- Watch on Airchat: getairchat.com/naval/everyone...
Discuss on Airchat: getairchat.com/naval/aiexplor...
Transcript:
Naval: The democratization of apps will continue. But remember, the web made it a lot easier to build web pages, too. So the bar went up. So then you need interactive web pages. So a lot more people learn how to build interactive web pages. So the bar went up. So people built apps. And a lot of people learn how to build basic apps. So the bar went up. So now people build very sophisticated apps. So yes, there will be much more long tail capability to build simple software. And this will have a huge impact, especially in the enterprise, where they just have a hard time hiring programmers. But that said, at least on the consumer side, on the mass consumption side, all this will do is raise the bar. It just means that the apps a year from now, two years from now, are going to look absolutely freaking amazing compared to the apps today.
Naval: Put another way, programmers are not these magical elves who have learned this secret esoteric ritual which nobody else can learn and understand. Programmers are simply the people who are so dedicated to building software that they're willing to stay at the edge of the craft and learn and use every tool no matter how sophisticated or complex it is. Today's programmers use a different set of tools and languages as will tomorrow's. So tomorrow's programmers will be doing natural language programming but they will be every bit as dedicated, skilled, intense, and applying effort as in the past. So I still don't think that high-end computing gets democratized. Here is the key difference. The key difference is that when you program something, software can go to a billion users and it's the same software. So people always just demand the best. As opposed to where if we're digging ditches and now we all get bulldozers, it is truly democratized because one ditch is not better than the others and building more ditches still takes more effort. So because programming is winner-take-all within a given domain, the specialist programmer will continue to dominate over the journalist who's just telling the computer to write the code.
John: It's like moving up the hierarchy of needs. Once you trivialize one layer, you actually free yourself up to focus on the next layer.
Zbynek Drab: So the ideal large language model is sort of like the reverse of the genie from the classic fairy tales where you typically get exactly what you asked for but something else than you meant and a well-designed language model will give you exactly what you mean no matter how clumsily and crudely you phrase it.
so basically: become a niche programmer or a programmer entrepreneur, the all day job programmer will get automated, without doubt, Saas is the primarily source for programming jobs. Programming as we know it will change, will be based on NLP-first, will be more accesible, as more accesibility means you have to provide a better product than before, distribution will be the only true thing that matters
Is this how AI is actually being used around you? Or are you seeing lawyers being fired because they had ChatGPT digest client confidential secrets they're not supposed to share, and ChatGPT hallucinated nonexistent case law back at them? I see this as being way more like "blockchain" where 99% of the development effort is a total waste for humanity, chasing buzzwords and anti-features. For every Bitcoin, there are tens of thousands of S**tcoins which were rug pulls at best, and keyloggers and trojans at worst.
Yeah you are absolutely right
IMO the only thing that matters now is well crafted UI
You can’t gpt your way through intuitively understandable layouts and beautiful animations, like you can with back-end and network layer inside front-end
@@denisblack9897 how does this UI/UX will get seen if you don't have distribution? As having a Universtity became more accesible, it has lost some of his value, it will be the same for app/software that can be developed with/by AI in 10 seconds? (Not now, but soon?). Anyone will be able to do this once programming transformed into NLP-first, it will be done for programmers' day job (5-10 years from now?). The same will happen for UI/UX, I predict, in the future, UI/UX will get ultra-personalized thanks to AI generated content for most popular apps, same as has happened with algorithms. The only thing that matters, but not everyone will be able to create will be an audicence, build distribution, understand the algorithm that doesn't change (human behaviour). As Naval says, humans will always want new things (love, money, relationships, health, saving time), programming is just a tool to achieve/provide that. UI/UX will get automated as well, same for coding.
what if UIs don't really matter? all apps will have llms for users to interact with the app. No need to search around the ui to get what you want.
basically like terminal apps but instead of remembering the commands you can talk to the app
He's repeating age old information to a new generation.
The bar for software just keeps getting higher and we’re here for it.
Only if you want software that is derivative and not written very well - which is probably a large part of existing software :) If you want well written code, well optimised, and creative solutions/implementations, existing LLM approaches won't cut it - but again, that's probably a every diminishing amount of software these days.
Waiting for the full podcast
Us Programmers are pursuers of ascension to higher dimensions through abstractions.
Every time we have enough foundations built, we abstract them to not worry about it and ascend higher.
Now. Some still want to tweak and customize their foundations and they can do so by simply climbing back down.
I only hope a spaceship some 300 years later won't break down because of an error code and when they open up the code to fix it... its not NLP but Cobol lol
truth be told though, its the same as moving to more and more abstracted languages like python. Its just a more and more abstracted closer and closer to natural language description of what you want done by the computer.
POST MORE NAVAL
ok guys, continue coding
"Software can go to a billion users and its the same software"
but, scalabity is something that needs to thought with way before any code is written. Making complex systems is not something ive seen genAi do well yet
None of this should come as a surprise. So much of the codebase everyone uses is already found in libraries. Meaning a junior programmer can essentially leverage code that would take them a couple decades to write from scratch. It is this growing codebase combined with AI that should be used to project the future of programming or more importantly software development. I expect that we will see the introduction of a new programming language containing most all the best of breed features in all other languages (with future extensibility for new features and self healing features built into the codebase). But less language like than what we know today (designed for AI with less clutter from human conveniences), with a design interface for rapid NLP and tactile mockup/prototyping, and an AI leveraged development lifecycle. Software development will go from 6 months to developing stable tested apps delivered to UAT or live AB testing in the span of a 1 hour meeting. What can be achieved now in a sprint will only take a minute. On the consumer side it will be different as well. Ever think "I wish this app could do this", "I want it to do what it does differently", or "I wish it would display the data a new way". Soon all you will need to do is say it and a new version of the app, "Your version" will be spawned, tested, and delivered to you in near real time. The thing is none of what I describe is science fiction because the capability to do this is already 95% available today. And AI can be leveraged to accelerate the creation of the remaining 5%. The only limiting factor is where will the compute be performed since we have a vast resource in the cloud but it's controlled and owned by a handful of gatekeepers. Kind of like having a feasible solution to feed all the people of the world but being blocked by greedy land owners.
We are digitals cultivators. Ascending through abstraction.
Totally agreed
Yes
One day AI will write entire code checks bugs, makes changes as per requirement and gives software as output.
LMAO
It already does, take a look at Devin.
@@CuriousCattery yes it came true in just 3 months 😂 but wait for 1 yr AGI will kickin
@@saishashi9978 what a time to be human 🤣
@@CuriousCattery hmm 🧐
Future belongs to us
Looking at your other content, what authority and experience do you have to soeak of SWE?
what about the impact of AI?
... listen to the video?
@@Gigusx I did listen to it
@@tinalifestyle888There will be no need to write code to create softwae
On
I'm learnding programming know
TL:DR: no
"Today's programmers use a different set of tools and languages as will tomorrow's." This guy doesn't know a shit about programming world.
Thank god im fucking tired of coding