It's kinda unexpected to hear nothing about 1) downward pressure on labor demand and 2) effective demand for goods and services being limited by the downward pressure on wages due to downward pressure on labor demand. One thing that happened in the late-1960s was the US deciding to discontinue the Apollo program and not continue on to Mars. It seems like the seeds of our current stagnation were planted back then. And it's very suggestive of what to do to get unstuck.
You can't call Spain a democratic capitalist country on a time series that starts in 1946. Just an observation - like Turchin, I'm not a native English speaker and I do understant things come out different than we intend them to.
The end of Capitalism, does not signify the end of the line. Just another chapter in Human existence. Shall we discuss what comes next or wait to see what is handed to us?
@@danielhutchinson6604 that is THEIR problem. A refusal to accept Capitalism works and Marxist anything does not is the problem for you and the others. I am 60. I'm out (of the game of discussing stuff with idiots).
@@Theineluctable_SOME_CANT I was born in 1951 and seem to be aware of Economic terms enough to discuss the status of issues with Citzens of several Nations. You appear to be just another Human who does not even understand what they have? Good luck with your ignorance.....
I need more data to answer. Remember that elite overproduction is related to society's socioeconomic situation. A society with lots of well educated people and healthy socioeconomic situation doesn't have 'elite overproduction' but if the same society starts to face a quick economic decline together with income/wealth concentration (number of well educated people remains the same, though) then there would be 'elite overproduction'. "Elite overproduction" relates to part of the elite that yields its power (uses it) and that happens when a society starts to decline. I really liked Turchin's ideas but I still have to look deeper into the kind of work he does. On some elctures/interviews he made it clear it's impossible to predict the future because societies are complex non-linear systems. The climate is also a system of that kind and though we can't predict the future we have tools that allow us to gains some information about the near future behavior of the system. There's a fundamental difference that makes history much more difficult to predict: the laws of thermodynamics don't change as the climate changes. Thermodynamics was first developed in the 19th century France by people who didn't know atoms and molecules existed. Later in the 20th century (I believe) an area called Statistical Physics was developed and people started to use it in thermodynamics. Statistical Physics starts from molecules and uses statistics to reach descriptions of pressure and temperature. When they did all the calculations they reached the same conclusions the 19th century physicists had reached. In the same way, a lot of Turchin's conclusions coincide with conclusions others have reached through different methods and, therefore, it seems not only that his method seems useful but most importantly that the conclusions are correct. You know ... I know something about you: you wrote one comment on this RUclips video. Not enough data for a precise anser but enough to say it's very unlikely any of yous are part of the elite.
Overproduction is an essential part of evolution. For there to be competition, there must be winners and losers. An organization with only winners is like a sinking ship with nothing to throw overboard.
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Thanks for sharing this important research. I did find it difficult to follow due to the jumping around and loose structure.
It's kinda unexpected to hear nothing about 1) downward pressure on labor demand and 2) effective demand for goods and services being limited by the downward pressure on wages due to downward pressure on labor demand. One thing that happened in the late-1960s was the US deciding to discontinue the Apollo program and not continue on to Mars. It seems like the seeds of our current stagnation were planted back then. And it's very suggestive of what to do to get unstuck.
No mathematical model wad discussed in the lecture. 😢
What now?
You can't call Spain a democratic capitalist country on a time series that starts in 1946. Just an observation - like Turchin, I'm not a native English speaker and I do understant things come out different than we intend them to.
Who says you can't? Are you saying I can't?
The end of Capitalism, does not signify the end of the line.
Just another chapter in Human existence.
Shall we discuss what comes next or wait
to see what is handed to us?
Chaos is what comes next.
Then cannibalism....
@@Theineluctable_SOME_CANT The ability to create alternatives apprears to be a Human trait.
Your pessimism seems to be confined to a minority.
@@danielhutchinson6604 that is THEIR problem.
A refusal to accept Capitalism works and Marxist anything does not is the problem for you and the others.
I am 60.
I'm out (of the game of discussing stuff with idiots).
@@danielhutchinson6604
ruclips.net/video/bEHIoZQbz_U/видео.html
You have a lot on your plate.
It will get MUCH WORSE, rapidly!
Have fun, young genius.
@@Theineluctable_SOME_CANT I was born in 1951 and seem to be aware of Economic terms enough to discuss the status of issues with Citzens of several Nations.
You appear to be just another Human who does not even understand what they have?
Good luck with your ignorance.....
am i a part of the elite overproduction?
If you have to ask, then you are not. Lol
I need more data to answer. Remember that elite overproduction is related to society's socioeconomic situation. A society with lots of well educated people and healthy socioeconomic situation doesn't have 'elite overproduction' but if the same society starts to face a quick economic decline together with income/wealth concentration (number of well educated people remains the same, though) then there would be 'elite overproduction'. "Elite overproduction" relates to part of the elite that yields its power (uses it) and that happens when a society starts to decline.
I really liked Turchin's ideas but I still have to look deeper into the kind of work he does. On some elctures/interviews he made it clear it's impossible to predict the future because societies are complex non-linear systems. The climate is also a system of that kind and though we can't predict the future we have tools that allow us to gains some information about the near future behavior of the system. There's a fundamental difference that makes history much more difficult to predict: the laws of thermodynamics don't change as the climate changes.
Thermodynamics was first developed in the 19th century France by people who didn't know atoms and molecules existed. Later in the 20th century (I believe) an area called Statistical Physics was developed and people started to use it in thermodynamics. Statistical Physics starts from molecules and uses statistics to reach descriptions of pressure and temperature. When they did all the calculations they reached the same conclusions the 19th century physicists had reached. In the same way, a lot of Turchin's conclusions coincide with conclusions others have reached through different methods and, therefore, it seems not only that his method seems useful but most importantly that the conclusions are correct.
You know ... I know something about you: you wrote one comment on this RUclips video. Not enough data for a precise anser but enough to say it's very unlikely any of yous are part of the elite.
Overproduction is an essential part of evolution. For there to be competition, there must be winners and losers. An organization with only winners is like a sinking ship with nothing to throw overboard.
Fascinating topic but almost impossibleto follow. The 'transcript' is speech-to--text software, and, um, gets every, ah - um, 'ah, um' spoken. Many.
Excellent discussion!
{Yawn} You need to gt out more.
@@TheDavidlloydjones"get" out more.
So do you.
Doubt the millennium bug is human - looks like a AI bot practicing coat trailing
Maybe not.
Ugly trolling ... Versus science.