Peter Turchin_The cliodynamics of end times_9JUN2023

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  • Опубликовано: 11 июн 2023

Комментарии • 86

  • @Ikbeneengeit
    @Ikbeneengeit 10 месяцев назад +1

    Thanks for sharing this important research. I did find it difficult to follow due to the jumping around and loose structure.

  • @alexshenderov4975
    @alexshenderov4975 8 месяцев назад

    It's kinda unexpected to hear nothing about 1) downward pressure on labor demand and 2) effective demand for goods and services being limited by the downward pressure on wages due to downward pressure on labor demand. One thing that happened in the late-1960s was the US deciding to discontinue the Apollo program and not continue on to Mars. It seems like the seeds of our current stagnation were planted back then. And it's very suggestive of what to do to get unstuck.

  • @sayantanmondal2403
    @sayantanmondal2403 10 месяцев назад +2

    No mathematical model wad discussed in the lecture. 😢

  • @maxheadrom3088
    @maxheadrom3088 11 месяцев назад +1

    You can't call Spain a democratic capitalist country on a time series that starts in 1946. Just an observation - like Turchin, I'm not a native English speaker and I do understant things come out different than we intend them to.

    • @jakebarnes28
      @jakebarnes28 2 месяца назад

      Who says you can't? Are you saying I can't?

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Ti subvert the law in every level will only lead you deeper down the rabbit hole and any further will be difficult to save. When the cost of saving a few people start to nit nake Sense even after I gave so many warnings, I will give the go ahead to bury it. I am sure the world will agree.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      What the world agrees with is not always right. Ask the victims of ww1 and ww2.

  • @danielhutchinson6604
    @danielhutchinson6604 10 месяцев назад +3

    The end of Capitalism, does not signify the end of the line.
    Just another chapter in Human existence.
    Shall we discuss what comes next or wait
    to see what is handed to us?

    • @Theineluctable_SOME_CANT
      @Theineluctable_SOME_CANT 10 месяцев назад +1

      Chaos is what comes next.
      Then cannibalism....

    • @danielhutchinson6604
      @danielhutchinson6604 10 месяцев назад +1

      @@Theineluctable_SOME_CANT The ability to create alternatives apprears to be a Human trait.
      Your pessimism seems to be confined to a minority.

    • @Theineluctable_SOME_CANT
      @Theineluctable_SOME_CANT 10 месяцев назад

      @@danielhutchinson6604 that is THEIR problem.
      A refusal to accept Capitalism works and Marxist anything does not is the problem for you and the others.
      I am 60.
      I'm out (of the game of discussing stuff with idiots).

    • @Theineluctable_SOME_CANT
      @Theineluctable_SOME_CANT 10 месяцев назад

      @@danielhutchinson6604
      ruclips.net/video/bEHIoZQbz_U/видео.html
      You have a lot on your plate.
      It will get MUCH WORSE, rapidly!
      Have fun, young genius.

    • @danielhutchinson6604
      @danielhutchinson6604 10 месяцев назад +3

      @@Theineluctable_SOME_CANT I was born in 1951 and seem to be aware of Economic terms enough to discuss the status of issues with Citzens of several Nations.
      You appear to be just another Human who does not even understand what they have?
      Good luck with your ignorance.....

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Please provide me with names and the who is who that were given the authority to use personal data of myself and allowed blasphemy to be committed.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    I am at the seat of judgement waiting. Who is Chairman "Mao"

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      Chinese Leader from 1949.

  • @davidwright8432
    @davidwright8432 4 месяца назад

    Fascinating topic but almost impossibleto follow. The 'transcript' is speech-to--text software, and, um, gets every, ah - um, 'ah, um' spoken. Many.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Based on Matthew 6:9.13 - locate where this can be found inscribed in marble and let me know the name of my father that is in Heaven.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      JEHOVAH.
      YAHWEY.
      GOD.
      FATHER.
      CREATOR.
      MOST HIGH.
      LORD.
      Angel of the LORD.

  • @9000ck
    @9000ck 11 месяцев назад +1

    am i a part of the elite overproduction?

    • @markteague8889
      @markteague8889 11 месяцев назад +3

      If you have to ask, then you are not. Lol

    • @maxheadrom3088
      @maxheadrom3088 11 месяцев назад

      I need more data to answer. Remember that elite overproduction is related to society's socioeconomic situation. A society with lots of well educated people and healthy socioeconomic situation doesn't have 'elite overproduction' but if the same society starts to face a quick economic decline together with income/wealth concentration (number of well educated people remains the same, though) then there would be 'elite overproduction'. "Elite overproduction" relates to part of the elite that yields its power (uses it) and that happens when a society starts to decline.
      I really liked Turchin's ideas but I still have to look deeper into the kind of work he does. On some elctures/interviews he made it clear it's impossible to predict the future because societies are complex non-linear systems. The climate is also a system of that kind and though we can't predict the future we have tools that allow us to gains some information about the near future behavior of the system. There's a fundamental difference that makes history much more difficult to predict: the laws of thermodynamics don't change as the climate changes.
      Thermodynamics was first developed in the 19th century France by people who didn't know atoms and molecules existed. Later in the 20th century (I believe) an area called Statistical Physics was developed and people started to use it in thermodynamics. Statistical Physics starts from molecules and uses statistics to reach descriptions of pressure and temperature. When they did all the calculations they reached the same conclusions the 19th century physicists had reached. In the same way, a lot of Turchin's conclusions coincide with conclusions others have reached through different methods and, therefore, it seems not only that his method seems useful but most importantly that the conclusions are correct.
      You know ... I know something about you: you wrote one comment on this RUclips video. Not enough data for a precise anser but enough to say it's very unlikely any of yous are part of the elite.

    • @irvhh143
      @irvhh143 11 месяцев назад +1

      Overproduction is an essential part of evolution. For there to be competition, there must be winners and losers. An organization with only winners is like a sinking ship with nothing to throw overboard.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Is it. On the Statue of Liberty 🗽

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад +3

    The degree of crisis depends the degree of accuracy in the name of God.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад +1

      There is no such thing as crisis.
      There is only righteousness and judgement.

    • @irvhh143
      @irvhh143 11 месяцев назад +1

      The rise of the east and the fall of the west.
      Reality sucks, go be with Jesus in the castle in the sky.

    • @wormball
      @wormball 11 месяцев назад +1

      There is no god

  • @ngc-ho1xd
    @ngc-ho1xd 11 месяцев назад +5

    Excellent discussion!

    • @TheDavidlloydjones
      @TheDavidlloydjones 11 месяцев назад

      {Yawn} You need to gt out more.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад +1

      ​@@TheDavidlloydjones"get" out more.
      So do you.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад +2

    Depress: when economics don't work I get depression. WHEN my mood changes It changes the weather.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    I only believe in my father in heaven.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      That would be my Father in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy kingdom come, thy will be done on earth as it is done in heaven.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    When ester eggs and Apple begin to rot, you should have taken some action.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    What's the crown of thorns and where can you find it?

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      The crown of thorns was what decieved Jews and Romans put on Jesus head.
      Too bad for them, their judgment was worse.

    • @o2807
      @o2807 10 месяцев назад

      no sense of humor

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Another Riddle for you.. The theory of everything...HAVE YOU FOUND HIM?

    • @twannnchwan3449
      @twannnchwan3449 11 месяцев назад +1

      You seem to be going through a manic episode. You should check your self into a mental institution to get the help you need, you'll get better soon.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    And where are the GOLD RESERVES?

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Now, What's the name of God, Christ, Jesus, Messiah, and what does The Father, Son, Holy Spirit mean? Riddle for everyone to solve so don't overthink cause I am the Alpha, Omega, Beta...

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    When I was young, I only play "SIMON SAYS"

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    I am here to judge base in what I can see. Not what I can't.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      What you can see and what you observe are very different things.
      Only God through the rebirth can give you eyes to see what others can not, and new ears to hear what others can not.
      Only God can give the increase.

    • @fluxpistol3608
      @fluxpistol3608 9 месяцев назад

      Do you two realise how little sense you make?

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Can you see the crown if thorns?

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    You don't follow natural disaster channels? What is the meaning of "Act of GOD"? or "Force Majeure"?

    • @Mike80528
      @Mike80528 11 месяцев назад

      Wow, so this is what severe mental illness looks like. Interestingly bizarre...

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    I want to see solid proof. Don't simply make up some Idea of Gold that is located somewhere that doesn't exist.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      Gold?
      Vanity.
      Vanity that people will kill for.
      Sins.
      People who put their faith in dollars, gold, silver all practice IDOLATRY.
      God says "store your riches in heaven where the moth can't corrupt".
      I store my riches in heaven by living in His commandments..
      Keep your money and gold. I'll keep my Lord and my God.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Should have stuck to the Maslow Hierarchy of NEEDS and not kid yourself that Y2K is not a problem and solution. It can only be 2 things. Zipper Brand or the Short Form used for my Chinese name. Mind you, Chinese name is not Chinese Script. of course then there is the problem of pingyum. Not Pinyin.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    If you are layering over the Truth, it's against the crown.

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Darkchild99.. see another label 😂

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Nice to create new words? NEW CONCEPT?

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    China is as confused as America, americans, U.S.A. what does it mean?

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      Countries don't get confused.
      They are terms labeling a group of people.
      An illusion.
      People in specific areas exist.
      Nations don't actually exist.
      These land masses have been here before any of us, and they will be here after we are gone.

    • @wormball
      @wormball 11 месяцев назад

      It means that you are a duckhead

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Name of God....

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    I am sure the medieval society gave people more than just languages. They also gave the world literature as well as Bible, Myth and so on

  • @naradaian
    @naradaian 10 месяцев назад

    Doubt the millennium bug is human - looks like a AI bot practicing coat trailing

  • @Y2KMillenniumBug
    @Y2KMillenniumBug 11 месяцев назад

    Even END TIMES, ENDED MULTIPLE TIMES.

    • @rdallas81
      @rdallas81 11 месяцев назад

      End times began after Jesus returned to Father.
      It's only been about 2000 years.
      Keep your eyes open. 2060 to 2068 will be epic.

    • @twannnchwan3449
      @twannnchwan3449 11 месяцев назад

      You seem to be going through a manic episode. You should check your self into a mental institution to get the help you need, you'll get better soon.

  • @michaelduby7244
    @michaelduby7244 11 месяцев назад

    Ugly trolling ... Versus science.