I think it's ironic that he's presenting this to a group of elite aspirants. I've read his book and when he gets a chance to completely explain his findings it's very compelling.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
It absolutely is about the wealth gap, or more precisely the wealth pump, taking wealth from the masses and pumping it upwards to the elite. This generates both social immiseration and elite overproduction, the latter of which leads to the creation of too many elite aspirants who then turn into counter-elites. These counter-elites then mobilize the immiserated masses to overthrow the old elite and establish a new system. @@revensona8637
I think the last question was being put forward with regard to CBDC and surveillance. It is a shame Peter did not pick up on this because the drive to tyrannical totalitarianism is definitely picking up steam.
It is all rooted in human emotions. That slowly creates societal structures that incentivize greed, like a pyramid hierarchy. We are a tribal species, once you leave that and create big groups the incentives for corruption rise. Agriculture is a direct incentive for corruption. Once you sit in one place and plow the land, govts and other concentrated power structures develop. A small group of people is self regulating because everyone knows everyone else. I'm sure tribes went mad with power sometimes, but less than agricultural societies. Agriculture IS "civilization", the war machine.
He is presenting his thesis as a keynote talk. It's quite a recognition. That is, in academic circles he is taken seriously, he managed to bite through , even despite his russian origin. He doesn't give a damn shit to improve his English, quite arrogantly. But that is the tragedy of the academic research, that it is difficult to articulate it to broader audience. Especially if it consists of students of political, juristic and other pseudo sciences, that is precisely those wanna-be-elites he is talking about. As about the content, historic research works this particular way: you postulate a banality ("its all about elites overproduction!", yeah! Who else could imagine that!) and write 5000 pages analysing the past under this very specific point of view. And have a hard time fighting another guy who claims another banality ("its all about the shortage of resources!" or "It's all about the lowering testosterone levels in male population of a society!") and looks at the very same past looking and finding confirmations for his thesis. That is how the interpretatory sciences work. In a sense they all are right as they all are wrong.
"We"? Depends on common values and goals, in my opinion. Vampires and empires depend on nonvoluntary collectivism to exist for centuries on "our" blood. Escape velocity takes Heart and skill, alchemy even. What may be worse than dark ages is a time of incessant artificial light. Your answer may emerge after a time of unplugging. Prepare for yourself and proceed. Happy Easter 'Node'.😌🙏
It’s too bad he is not very good at presenting the theory. Not many people will have the patience to read 3-4 books to really ”get” what he is talking about. So he is likely doomed to be misunderstood and ignored.
I think it's ironic that he's presenting this to a group of elite aspirants. I've read his book and when he gets a chance to completely explain his findings it's very compelling.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
State collapse. Complete civilizational collapse is much rarer.
youre missing the point entirely its not about a wealth gap
It absolutely is about the wealth gap, or more precisely the wealth pump, taking wealth from the masses and pumping it upwards to the elite. This generates both social immiseration and elite overproduction, the latter of which leads to the creation of too many elite aspirants who then turn into counter-elites. These counter-elites then mobilize the immiserated masses to overthrow the old elite and establish a new system. @@revensona8637
@@revensona8637explain
Yes it is@@revensona8637
I think the last question was being put forward with regard to CBDC and surveillance. It is a shame Peter did not pick up on this because the drive to tyrannical totalitarianism is definitely picking up steam.
It is all rooted in human emotions. That slowly creates societal structures that incentivize greed, like a pyramid hierarchy. We are a tribal species, once you leave that and create big groups the incentives for corruption rise. Agriculture is a direct incentive for corruption. Once you sit in one place and plow the land, govts and other concentrated power structures develop. A small group of people is self regulating because everyone knows everyone else. I'm sure tribes went mad with power sometimes, but less than agricultural societies. Agriculture IS "civilization", the war machine.
He is presenting his thesis as a keynote talk. It's quite a recognition. That is, in academic circles he is taken seriously, he managed to bite through , even despite his russian origin. He doesn't give a damn shit to improve his English, quite arrogantly.
But that is the tragedy of the academic research, that it is difficult to articulate it to broader audience. Especially if it consists of students of political, juristic and other pseudo sciences, that is precisely those wanna-be-elites he is talking about.
As about the content, historic research works this particular way: you postulate a banality ("its all about elites overproduction!", yeah! Who else could imagine that!) and write 5000 pages analysing the past under this very specific point of view. And have a hard time fighting another guy who claims another banality ("its all about the shortage of resources!" or "It's all about the lowering testosterone levels in male population of a society!") and looks at the very same past looking and finding confirmations for his thesis.
That is how the interpretatory sciences work. In a sense they all are right as they all are wrong.
So can one or more of these be used to create self fulfilling prophesies that lead to revolution in order to change as new societies ?
Are we in dark ages ?
"We"? Depends on common values and goals, in my opinion. Vampires and empires depend on nonvoluntary collectivism to exist for centuries on "our" blood. Escape velocity takes Heart and skill, alchemy even. What may be worse than dark ages is a time of incessant artificial light. Your answer may emerge after a time of unplugging. Prepare for yourself and proceed. Happy Easter 'Node'.😌🙏
The dark ages are coming
Something worse is coming if it cannot be stopped.
Babylon
@@magouliana32 yup
It’s too bad he is not very good at presenting the theory. Not many people will have the patience to read 3-4 books to really ”get” what he is talking about. So he is likely doomed to be misunderstood and ignored.
I feel like he did a great job
Lol he is a highly respected scientist and academic
...meh...quite the mish-mash.