Love that FYC does random episodes throughout the year to keep me up to date on what movies to look out for and seeing how the races change throughout the year!
@@nafischowdhury7375Ridley always falls off and comes back with hit. He was in the wilderness prior to THE MARTIAN, THELMA & LOUISE, and even GLADIATOR! Go look at his resume. He goes 10 years making garbage but then shows back up with a banger outta nowhere. This is just regular Ridley behavior.
Marvelous. Between Scott's enthusiasm, Perri's idealism, and Jeff's pragmatism, we repeat: As ever, you three are SO darned entertaining. More, please, thank you. ♥♥♥
The Academy HATES horror. They need to get rid of their horror bias I agree but because of their bias no way in hell is The Substance getting nominated unfortunately.
I think Wild Robot has a clear leg-up on Inside Out 2. Yes, IO2 is a box office juggernaut but it doesn't have nearly the emotional pull and broadly relatable themes that TWR has. And as Super Mario proved, box office doesn't matter at all when it comes to Oscars. I think TWR deserves the animated feature Oscar as well as at least a best pic nom.
1/2. The Brutalist/Emilia Perez 3. Conclave 4. Anora 5. Sing Sing 6. Dune Part 2 7. Saturday Night 8. Nickel Boys 9. Blitz 10. A Complete Unknown list is obviously bound to change but this is what i’m feeling now
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 16.9): 25. We Live in Time 24. Juror No. 2 23. Maria 22. Evil Does Not Exist 21. September 5th 20. Didi 19. Gladiator II 18. Joker: Folie à Deux 17. A Complete Unknown 16. The Room Next Door 15. Queer 14. Saturday Night 13. Conclave 12. A Real Pain 11. The Brutalist --------------------------------------------------------- 10. The Life of Chuck 9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig 8. The Piano Lesson 7. The Apprentice 6. Nickel Boys 5. Emilia Pérez 4. Blitz 3. Sing Sing 2. Anora 1. Dune: Part Two
the top 3 frontrunners films right now I am thinking are Anora (Neon), Emilia Pérez (Netflix) & The Brutalist (A24) so far I heard/read/seen the reactions from all film critics I followed like Perri Nemiroff's For Your Consideration portion videos
Just finished up my final (27th!) film of TIFF! This was the first time I've seen more than a few here and I was very much inspired to really go for it after hearing about your experiences every year on FYC. One of the most fun weeks I've ever had! I'm excited to be able to follow along with FYC this year with pretty good context on all the films being talked about! About the films in particular, in the end I really did end up loving PPA winner, The Life of Chuck. Great & unexpected concept, beautiful message, and all around delightful film! My 2nd favourite was Nightbitch, I've got to agree with Mantz on that one. We Live in Time was also really really good. I did miss a couple of big ones though, based on all the buzz I've been hearing I really need to see The Brutalist and Anora whenever they're available!
So some quick Best Picture facts... If you just consider theatrical versions and consider "epic" as at least 2.5 hours of runtime, then there's only been 3 times when an epic won Best Picture in two consecutive years (Around the World in 80 Days/The Bridge on the River Kwai; My Fair Lady/The Sound of Music; Amadeus/Out of Africa) and only once where it happened 3 years in a row (Braveheart/The English Patient/Titanic) *note: Forrest Gump is 2 hrs, 22 mins, otherwise it would've been 5 years in a row* So what I'm saying is that coming off Oppenheimer" (3 hrs), it's highly unlikely that we'll see The Brutalist (3.5 hrs) win BP. In fact, the last 3 BP winners to go over 2.5 hrs were: Oppenheimer (23), The Departed (2 hrs, 31 mins; 2006), and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola, should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
There's no world where Dune 2 doesn't make the Top 10. Denis was snubbed for Director last time and the movie still made it into Best Picture. Critical and Audience consensus is that Part Two is better than Part One, I doubt they will snub Denis twice, and it's going to rack up the tech noms. When's the last time a movie got 8+ noms and no Best Picture nom? (rhetorical question, it was The Dark Knight and there were only 5 Best Picture slots!!)
The substance needed to go that hard in the last 20 mins. If it pulled back at all then it would have fallen flat. Perri is correct! Such an amazing film.
Yeah it's wild that they said that it might upstage Dune Part 2. Lol no shot. I am looking forward to Gladiator 2. I think it will be highly entertaining, but Oscar contender? I find that so hard to believe.
Reel Consideration Top Ten Oscar Best Picture Nominees (First Tentative List) Dune Pt 2 (WB) Conclave (Focus Features) Saturday Night (Sony) Emilia Perez (Netflix) The Brutalist (A24) Blitz (Apple) Anora (NEON) A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) Wicked (Universal Pictures) Gladiator 2 (Paramount Pictures) This is our 1st pass as well guys 😂
This is why I love FYC... it just makes me excited for The Oscar Season. The Substance and The Brutalist are now one of my most highly anticipated movies of the year! I don't know but I am not that high on Gladiator 2. Ridley Scott just doesn't have that pedigree anymore. And I still feel FYC is so underestimating Dune 2, along with many other experts on Gold Derby. I think The Academy will have Dune 2 very high. I know Gladiator 2 is an unknown but Dune 2 is like one of the best movies of the last decade, and that is a very popular opinion among many people. I am ready for a movie like Dune 2 to win BP, but I do understand it is unlikely. I wont be mad if any of these great movies win, but I just hope one of these years, we see a movie like Top Gun Maverick and Dune 2 pull of major wins.
Just for fun I went onto Gold Derby and plugged in the top 10 rankings in a spreadsheet of all the experts that rated 10 movies for best picture. 20 of the 21 experts rated 10 movies so I only used 20 of the experts and did not include the one expert that only picked 7 movies. Peri is one of the 20 experts I used. I then added FYC very own Mantz & Jeff into the spreadsheet so I have a total of 22 experts picking 10 movies for best picture. Below is a consensus top 10 based on my spreadsheet. Movies that appeared on the most ballots became the consensus top 10. If tied with number of votes then the movie with the lowest cumulative score was ranked higher. 1. Emila Perez (21 votes, Total Score 64, Average Rank 3rd) 2. Anora (21 votes, Total Score 70, Average Rank 3rd) 3. Conclave (21 votes, Total Score 86, Average Rank 4th) 4. Sing Sing (19 votes, Total Score 106, Average Rank 6th) 5. Blitz (18 votes, Total Score 89, Average Rank 5th) 6. Dune Part Two (18 votes, Total Score 97, Average Rank 5th) 7. The Brutalist (17 votes, Total Score 89, Average Rank 5th) 8. Gladiator II (15 votes, Total Score 99, Average Rank 7th) 9. Nickel Boys (10 votes, Total Score 69, Average Rank 7th) 10. The Piano Lesson (8 votes, Total Score 52, Average Rank 7th) Honorable Mention • A Complete Unknown (7 Votes, Average Rank 7th) • September 5th (7 Votes, Average Rank 7th) • A Real Pain (6 Votes, Average Rank 7th) • No other movie had more than 4 votes Other Notes • One expert did not vote for either Emila Perez or Conclave preventing them from getting a perfect score of 22 out of 22. That same expert cast the only vote for the movie Didi and Hit Man. • The one expert that did not vote for Anora voted for a movie called The Six Triple Eight in their top 10.
@@armando5846 I haven’t read the novel, but I did read Whitehead’s previous book, The Underground Railroad, which is simply one of the most masterful works of fiction I’ve ever read. As for being experimental, well, a few years ago that would’ve killed your chances, but this is also the Academy that nominated The Zone of Interest, another film with very unconventional techniques.
@@armando5846 Certainly unconventional by Oscar movie standards! With expressionistic moments that have no literal meaning, no conventional narrative structure, none of the warm inspiration the Academy used to go for in its biopic choices.
I hope Gladiator 2 is good, but there's no way I would have it in the top 10 right now sight unseen. It's like we're all forgetting the mostly mediocre movies Ridley Scott has made since The Martian.
Yall keep saying this but look at every major hit he’s had. They’ve come after a DROUGHT of mediocre stuff. That just how he rolls. Look at the gap between Blade Runner and Thelma & Louise. Or the gap between T&L and Gladiator. Or the gap from American Gangster to the Martian! He always makes a bunch of forgettable movies then bounces back with a banger. Seriously go back and look. You’d be shocked at how down he was in the 90s prior to hitting big with Gladiator!
@davidfilmexpert true...but after the first weekend...when most of world realizes it's a musical....I think it's not going to be as popular...and that will register with the academy. Nothing against musicals, I love them...but I don't see lightning striking twice
@@davidfilmexpert weren’t you just arguing that musicals don’t do well with the modern academy unless they are La La Land level? Based of the reviews, this ain’t La La Land.
@@davidfilmexpert that’s the equivalent of saying that Furiousa is getting a best picture nomination because its predecessor got 10 nominations. Genre films already have a hard time getting into best picture- that becomes twice as hard for genre sequel films especially if the sequel is not as well received as its predecessor. Coming out of TIFF and Venice in 2019, Joker had some divisive but mostly positive reviews and WON the Golden Lion. Based on reviews and Folie a Deux’s reception so far- this just isn’t as good as the first film and that inherently makes it much harder to get in when the sequel isn’t as good as the original. Dune Part 2 is not having this problem because it’s largely considered to be better than Dune Part 1. With 10 slots, I just have a hard time believing a genre sequel is going to get into best picture when one of those slots is already pretty much guaranteed to a superior genre sequel. I wish the academy was cool enough to do more than one genre film in best picture but that’s already a hard find- let alone two genre sequel films.
@@davidfilmexpert After Folie a Deux’s disappointing box office performance and disappointing audience reviews, it’s not Mad Max or even Way of Water. Those movies both crushed the box office and were considered worthy sequels. A 5.3 audience score on IMDB and 45 metacritic score combined with disappointing box office performance means its chances for picture are done.
I get that Gladiator 2 could knock Dune 2 out of the Best Picture lineup - but don’t forget that Top Gun 2 and Avatar 2 were both nominated for BP the same year.
I haven’t seen The Substance but the way Jeff and Mantz described it reminded me of the sci-fi film Sunshine. I thought it was a 10/10 for the first 70% of the film, and then… meh.
so the best sci-film from this decade so far doesn't even crack the top 5 in contention? sci-fi and horror film disrespect is really idiotic..Denis Villeneuve disrespect is even more damning.
Not disrespectful. But Dune 2 isn't the finale of the franchise. So I doubt there will be a rush to give it Best Picture. Plus Dune 2 lacks that emotional punch compared to the other films they mentioned.
@@Gavin48If Dune gets Director which is possible, Picture can happen since it will definitely get many techs also. The rush argument is understandable but Critics Choice could start the momentum early for Denis in awards season. After that PGA and BAFTA could follow. Dune is highly acclaimed so anything is possible.
@@Gavin48 lacks emotional punch because they are biased against when it comes to scifi, there's always this stigma that heavy drama, biopics, historical, are the only ones considered to be best picture, very rare something genre wins.. in 20 years some of this so-called BP contenders will not be regarded as high, just like so many others in the past.
@venichiko9999 I wouldn't say it's biased. Sci-fi movies can be very cold. Dune 1 & 2 are both visually stunning. But the characters are very bland and stoic. I'm not the biggest fan of EEAAO, but at least that was a fantasy slash sci-fi movie that had some human element and heart. The reason Dune doesn't make the Billion Dollar Box office is because it doesn't pull you in the way movies like Star Wars do. I agree that many Best Picture winners won't be remembered in 20 years' time. But neither will Dune in the same way Star Wars, which is a timeless franchise. Many people would rather watch The Holdovers or Green Book over Dune. Drama & human emotions trump arty Sci-fi
Gladiator 2? LOL, surely not. After watching Napoleon I have no faith in Ridley Scott anymore. Gladiator 2 is probably entertaining but I strongly doubt it's Oscars contender.
Ridley made far worse films than Napoleon in the 90s prior to making the first Gladiator! Hell he’s made even worse films in the 80s prior to making the masterpiece THELMA & LOUISE! Don’t count him out yet. He always makes trash then bounces back.
Agree other critic reviews didn’t like Emilia Perez as much as these guys Sing- Sing is sinking from other reviews also maybe actors Maria isn’t getting in as a movie Angelina maybe. Nicole Kidman always gets nominated she can sneeze & get nominated. Waiting to hear about Queer I heard mixed reviews on so many of these reviews for just about all these movies
my Oscars 2025 Best Picture predictions (September 2024) top 10 Dìdi (Focus Features) Anora (Neon) Emilia Pérez (Netflix) The Brutalist (A24) A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) Blitz (Apple Studios) Sing Sing (A24) Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures) next-in-line: Conclave (Focus Features) Nickel Boys (Orion Pictures-MGM) A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) The Piano Lesson (Netflix) Nosferatu (Focus Features) The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) Queer (A24) The Substance (Mubi) Babygirl (A24) Wicked (Universal Pictures) Challengers (MGM) We Live In Time (A24) Joker: Folie Á Deux (Warner Bros.)
I wonder when Oscar predictors are going to take Wicked seriously? That movie is going to be huge. We know it’s gonna get into the Globes and will probably be huge at the BAFTAs given the cast.
@@myytchanneldinakoha8498 No it’s not for a few reasons. 1. Wicked is way more popular than The Color Purple and will do better at the box office because the musical is popular and the Wizard of Oz is well known. 2. Arianna Grande is one of the biggest stars and will have a box office draw by her name alone. 3. John Chu has directed a musical already that had Oscar buzz, the only reason it didn’t get Oscar buzz is it didn’t have big names, it didn’t have a big main performance, the musical wasn’t a big well known musical, and it was released during the pandemic and flopped at the box office. 4. John Chu is already established as being beloved by the academy. Crazy Rich Asians was an Oscar nominated movie. The color Purple was nominated by a first time director who had only directed music videos before. 5. Wicked has the power of Stephen Schwartz behind it. If you don’t know who Stephen Schwartz is, go look him up. Some of his famous works include Hunchback of Notre Dame and Prince of Egypt. He’s a big deal in the stage world, and he’s the guy who’s been composing the trailers. Basically, he’s overdue to win an Oscar.
@@myytchanneldinakoha8498 No it’s not. John Chu is an established director. Wicked is way more popular than The Color Purple, and the cast is way more stacked. Comparing those two musicals is like comparing something like Avengers Infinity War and Super and being like, “Oh, no one is going to see Avengers Infinity War because no one saw Super.”
Just a couple of months ago Sing Sing was winning Picture and Lead Actor. Then festivals come and it’s over. Interesting. And poor Nickel Boys and The Piano Lesson.
September 5th is not happening in Best Picture. The campaign is just going to get too controversial, if it even gets that far. And it's probably not going to be a major player in the acting or tech categories so I do not see a world where it cracks the 10 for BP without another nomination
The "I'll teach you everything you need to know about Road War," line alone should nab Furiosa a best picture nom. I'll just come out and say it: Furiosa > Fury Road.
Trailer for Blitz doesn't look promising and the amount of confidence in Gladiator 2 is a bit baffling to me - tech categories, sure but that's it. I saw The Substance and wow, nomination for it would be such an iconic moment. Perhaps younger and international voters could push it
The Oscars have become too niche. I love indie films and I'm happy to see some of them getting more mainstream attention. But too many of them don't age very well. Many of these films get great reviews and get Oscar consideration. Then a few years later, they seem dated or almost unwatchable.
I could be wrong but I don’t think Gladiator 2 will be good, it’s been a WHILE since Ridley Scoot did a great movie and I think the Barbenheimer set up they’re trying to promote for Gladiator and Wicked is going to hurt both movies cuz that was a one time thing impossible to replicate and both movies were great, the comparison is going to be inevitable. I can already see the memes about the failure ruining the second weekend box office
I agree more with Jeff I don’t usually agree with Perri & Scott. Perri & Scott r usually V Hollywood bubble thinking. (which is not good for the future of the film Industry) the audience is not always sheep following what Hollywood likes
My 10 picks are as follows. These are films I liked, not necessarily films that could get nominated. Emilia Perez Will and Harper Any Other Way: The Jackie Shane Story Ponyboi How To Have Sex Housekeeping for Beginners Am I OK? I Saw the TV Glow National Anthem Didi
10. Gladiator 2 9. A Complete Unknown 8. Saturday Night 7. Blitz 6. Emilia Perez 5. Conclave 4. Dune pt.2 3. Sing Sing 2. The Brutalist 1. Anora On the bubble: Joker 2, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and The Nickel Boys
It is actually popular, ranking 20th favorite countr of Americans in well over 100 counties (US News and World Report 9/12/2024). That’s pretty good for a country getting beaten down by extremists, receiving some pretty bad press. Many of us love it.
my predictions: The Brutalist Anora Conclave Dune Part Two Emilia Perez Blitz Sing Sing Nickel Boys A Complete Unknown The Room Next Door I don't feel that good about last two, but Mangold with music biopic should be a contender, and Academy love Almodovar... other contenders: Joker: Folie a Deux (probably only crafts), A Real Pain (actors, screenplay... but it could be more than that), Saturday Night (this one is screaming sole screenplay nom), Gladiator 2 (Ridley Scott is extremely hit and miss), Juror #2 (so is Eastwood lately)... and then there are only two movies directed by women, but both of them (Nightbitch, The Substance) sound too weird for Oscar (and I hope I'm wrong, I would love for The Substance to get some love!)... The Piano Lesson, His Three Daughters and The Seed of the Sacred Fig just so I could list 20 movies total, but I don't really believe in those. Am I missing something? Oh, and I don't think September 5 will be 2024. release...
Even though Gladiator 2 hasn't been released yet there is no way it should be ranked higher than Dune Part 2. I'm still a believer in Dune Part 2 winning for Picture, Director and Techs.
Dune will Win techs for sure. But it is way too soon to have it locked in Best Picture. It's no Oppenheimer. If it made closer to a Billion. I'd agree with you
@@Gavin48 Not saying it's locked, all I'm saying is I'm a believer. I understand the Oppenheimer comparison but each best picture winner is unique in its winning package. Look at Coda, EEAAO, or Nomadland. None of those films were huge juggernauts at the box office. Dune Part 2 made 711 mill at the box office which is enough. It could win Critics Choice or Golden Globes for Best Film & Director which is the starting of awards season. That momentum could help it win PGA, DGA and possibly Bafta. If it has momentum in some important categories early in awards season, I could see it carrying it to the Oscars. Plus I believe it's Denis Villeneuve's time. Most picture winners have Director or Screenplay to go with them which is possible with Dune Part 2.
@@ktom5262That is your opinion and you are entitled to it. The fact is it has a 92% Critic & 95% Audience score on RT. As well as an A cinemascore. 711 million global box office is not to shabby either.
Love that FYC does random episodes throughout the year to keep me up to date on what movies to look out for and seeing how the races change throughout the year!
I'm getting Furiosa vibes from Gladiator 2. Like, it might be good, but people won't care.
yeah people are overestimating that film cause the first one was a big hit. not to mention ridley has fallen off these past years.
@@nafischowdhury7375Ridley always falls off and comes back with hit.
He was in the wilderness prior to THE MARTIAN, THELMA & LOUISE, and even GLADIATOR!
Go look at his resume. He goes 10 years making garbage but then shows back up with a banger outta nowhere.
This is just regular Ridley behavior.
Marvelous. Between Scott's enthusiasm, Perri's idealism, and Jeff's pragmatism, we repeat: As ever, you three are SO darned entertaining. More, please, thank you. ♥♥♥
That discussion didn’t feel like an hour. Wrote down my list of “ to watch films“. Can wait for nominations to see where they stand.
We need an "I wish they would consider but definitely won't..." segment.
The Blackberry award, I remember Jeff saying something like he'd knock on doors preaching about how good that movie was and I'd agree
I'm seeing The Substance tomorrow and you guys have got me so goddamn curious about it
I’m so excited for the Brutalist! I hope we get a release date soon! Sounds like the talk around that movie is it could be a major Oscar contender.
The Academy HATES horror. They need to get rid of their horror bias I agree but because of their bias no way in hell is The Substance getting nominated unfortunately.
I think Wild Robot has a clear leg-up on Inside Out 2. Yes, IO2 is a box office juggernaut but it doesn't have nearly the emotional pull and broadly relatable themes that TWR has. And as Super Mario proved, box office doesn't matter at all when it comes to Oscars. I think TWR deserves the animated feature Oscar as well as at least a best pic nom.
In a perfect world, The Wild Robot would be a FRONTRUNNER
I use this show to determine what I consider watching when the Oscar season starts. Love the show.
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Emilia Perez
5. Blitz
6. A Complete Unknown
7. Sing Sing
8. A Real Pain
9. Dune II
10. Juror #2
I'd like for this podcast to be available on Spotify
1/2. The Brutalist/Emilia Perez
3. Conclave
4. Anora
5. Sing Sing
6. Dune Part 2
7. Saturday Night
8. Nickel Boys
9. Blitz
10. A Complete Unknown
list is obviously bound to change but this is what i’m feeling now
This is better than their list! They are way underestimating Nickel Boys based on the first reactions imo
DUNE part 2 is going to win best picture
I know its a long shot but the substance is one of my favorites this year and deserve any love that it gets
The substance is a masterpiece. I agree with Perri
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 16.9):
25. We Live in Time
24. Juror No. 2
23. Maria
22. Evil Does Not Exist
21. September 5th
20. Didi
19. Gladiator II
18. Joker: Folie à Deux
17. A Complete Unknown
16. The Room Next Door
15. Queer
14. Saturday Night
13. Conclave
12. A Real Pain
11. The Brutalist
---------------------------------------------------------
10. The Life of Chuck
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
8. The Piano Lesson
7. The Apprentice
6. Nickel Boys
5. Emilia Pérez
4. Blitz
3. Sing Sing
2. Anora
1. Dune: Part Two
Dune is really challenging to get Oscar best picture, since it is a sci fi. Anorak or Singsong have a better chance of winning
the top 3 frontrunners films right now I am thinking are Anora (Neon), Emilia Pérez (Netflix) & The Brutalist (A24) so far I heard/read/seen the reactions from all film critics I followed like Perri Nemiroff's For Your Consideration portion videos
Love this show so much, you guys are the best!
Love that FYC gives me a list of films to look out for and watch before the oscar season really kicks off.
Just finished up my final (27th!) film of TIFF! This was the first time I've seen more than a few here and I was very much inspired to really go for it after hearing about your experiences every year on FYC. One of the most fun weeks I've ever had! I'm excited to be able to follow along with FYC this year with pretty good context on all the films being talked about!
About the films in particular, in the end I really did end up loving PPA winner, The Life of Chuck. Great & unexpected concept, beautiful message, and all around delightful film! My 2nd favourite was Nightbitch, I've got to agree with Mantz on that one. We Live in Time was also really really good.
I did miss a couple of big ones though, based on all the buzz I've been hearing I really need to see The Brutalist and Anora whenever they're available!
Just obsessed with you guys and this show 🥰🥰 excited for another great season!
All I have to say is great episode! You provided some great insight on so many movies for me to consider seeing.
So some quick Best Picture facts...
If you just consider theatrical versions and consider "epic" as at least 2.5 hours of runtime, then there's only been 3 times when an epic won Best Picture in two consecutive years (Around the World in 80 Days/The Bridge on the River Kwai; My Fair Lady/The Sound of Music; Amadeus/Out of Africa) and only once where it happened 3 years in a row (Braveheart/The English Patient/Titanic) *note: Forrest Gump is 2 hrs, 22 mins, otherwise it would've been 5 years in a row*
So what I'm saying is that coming off Oppenheimer" (3 hrs), it's highly unlikely that we'll see The Brutalist (3.5 hrs) win BP.
In fact, the last 3 BP winners to go over 2.5 hrs were: Oppenheimer (23), The Departed (2 hrs, 31 mins; 2006), and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola, should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
We do not know until other festivals have hosted
" Dune - Part Two " gets my vote...extremely epic in the best ways. IMO
A loved by the audience film.
There's no world where Dune 2 doesn't make the Top 10. Denis was snubbed for Director last time and the movie still made it into Best Picture. Critical and Audience consensus is that Part Two is better than Part One, I doubt they will snub Denis twice, and it's going to rack up the tech noms. When's the last time a movie got 8+ noms and no Best Picture nom? (rhetorical question, it was The Dark Knight and there were only 5 Best Picture slots!!)
The substance needed to go that hard in the last 20 mins. If it pulled back at all then it would have fallen flat. Perri is correct! Such an amazing film.
Internationally Gladiator II comes out a week earlier (Nov. 15), so it won't have global competition to become a Barbenheimer 2.
I don't see Gladiator 2 being in the conversation much longer
Yeah it's wild that they said that it might upstage Dune Part 2. Lol no shot. I am looking forward to Gladiator 2. I think it will be highly entertaining, but Oscar contender? I find that so hard to believe.
Sing Sing Traditional vs Anora New Age Academy
Emilia gets international
@@davidfilmexpert it will be for international
@@mudstyle5288maybe.
100% agree with Jeff on Sing Sing. A24 fumbled the roll out and they need to kickstart the campaign soon because barely anyone is talking about it
My birthday is on November 22! Will definitely take a trip to the cinema that weekend 🎉
Reel Consideration Top Ten Oscar Best Picture Nominees (First Tentative List)
Dune Pt 2 (WB)
Conclave (Focus Features)
Saturday Night (Sony)
Emilia Perez (Netflix)
The Brutalist (A24)
Blitz (Apple)
Anora (NEON)
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)
Wicked (Universal Pictures)
Gladiator 2 (Paramount Pictures)
This is our 1st pass as well guys 😂
Dìdi is my bet even though I didn't see/watch it yet..
It’s very good, but would be quite the underdog 🤞
FYC is great! keep up the good work gang!
This is why I love FYC... it just makes me excited for The Oscar Season. The Substance and The Brutalist are now one of my most highly anticipated movies of the year!
I don't know but I am not that high on Gladiator 2. Ridley Scott just doesn't have that pedigree anymore. And I still feel FYC is so underestimating Dune 2, along with many other experts on Gold Derby. I think The Academy will have Dune 2 very high. I know Gladiator 2 is an unknown but Dune 2 is like one of the best movies of the last decade, and that is a very popular opinion among many people. I am ready for a movie like Dune 2 to win BP, but I do understand it is unlikely.
I wont be mad if any of these great movies win, but I just hope one of these years, we see a movie like Top Gun Maverick and Dune 2 pull of major wins.
The Substance blew me away.
7 seasons? Wowzers!
Always love each of your insight, I just wish it was explained what Emilia Perez was about besides just saying it was great
That Perri reaction to Saturday Night! And I thought the trailer was pretty good. 😂
@@davidfilmexperttho I just noticed the Guardian also gave it a 1/5 review, so opinions are definitely ‘mixed’
Just for fun I went onto Gold Derby and plugged in the top 10 rankings in a spreadsheet of all the experts that rated 10 movies for best picture. 20 of the 21 experts rated 10 movies so I only used 20 of the experts and did not include the one expert that only picked 7 movies. Peri is one of the 20 experts I used. I then added FYC very own Mantz & Jeff into the spreadsheet so I have a total of 22 experts picking 10 movies for best picture. Below is a consensus top 10 based on my spreadsheet. Movies that appeared on the most ballots became the consensus top 10. If tied with number of votes then the movie with the lowest cumulative score was ranked higher.
1. Emila Perez (21 votes, Total Score 64, Average Rank 3rd)
2. Anora (21 votes, Total Score 70, Average Rank 3rd)
3. Conclave (21 votes, Total Score 86, Average Rank 4th)
4. Sing Sing (19 votes, Total Score 106, Average Rank 6th)
5. Blitz (18 votes, Total Score 89, Average Rank 5th)
6. Dune Part Two (18 votes, Total Score 97, Average Rank 5th)
7. The Brutalist (17 votes, Total Score 89, Average Rank 5th)
8. Gladiator II (15 votes, Total Score 99, Average Rank 7th)
9. Nickel Boys (10 votes, Total Score 69, Average Rank 7th)
10. The Piano Lesson (8 votes, Total Score 52, Average Rank 7th)
Honorable Mention
• A Complete Unknown (7 Votes, Average Rank 7th)
• September 5th (7 Votes, Average Rank 7th)
• A Real Pain (6 Votes, Average Rank 7th)
• No other movie had more than 4 votes
Other Notes
• One expert did not vote for either Emila Perez or Conclave preventing them from getting a perfect score of 22 out of 22. That same expert cast the only vote for the movie Didi and Hit Man.
• The one expert that did not vote for Anora voted for a movie called The Six Triple Eight in their top 10.
PLEASE we need a spoiler discussion for the Substance
Netflix, Neon & A24 this year's battling Oscars Best Picture
It was very enjoyable to see Jeff get tired of Scott’s rambling and just start directing the show halfway through
Jesus christ the jump scare nobody expected 😂
The eye scared me lmaoooo
Y'all are sleeping on Nickel Boys. It's going to shoot up to the top of the conversation the day it releases.
Considering how dull the writer's work is and the experimental nature of that movie, it has no chance
@@armando5846 I haven’t read the novel, but I did read Whitehead’s previous book, The Underground Railroad, which is simply one of the most masterful works of fiction I’ve ever read.
As for being experimental, well, a few years ago that would’ve killed your chances, but this is also the Academy that nominated The Zone of Interest, another film with very unconventional techniques.
@@utkarshed I thought "Underground" was incredibly dull. And Zone of Interest was hardly "unconventional". It was just European.
@@armando5846 Certainly unconventional by Oscar movie standards! With expressionistic moments that have no literal meaning, no conventional narrative structure, none of the warm inspiration the Academy used to go for in its biopic choices.
@@utkarshed They nominated Amour back in like 2015.
Fun fact: Karla Sofia Gascon was in Master Chef Mexico
Let her cook! (literally & figuratively)
@@Aussie27Legend FR it would be nice seeing her win an Oscar she got a lot of unjustified hate in her season
Jeff. I didn't see you here in Toronto. Scott was here but were you?
i'm so excited for emilia perez. everyone seems to undermine it but it has huge oscar potential
My list for Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes
Colman Domingo
Adrien Brody
Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Craig
Dune 2 and The substance are the only movies that made a dent in pop culture that will last for generations
I hope Gladiator 2 is good, but there's no way I would have it in the top 10 right now sight unseen. It's like we're all forgetting the mostly mediocre movies Ridley Scott has made since The Martian.
exactlyyy
Yall keep saying this but look at every major hit he’s had.
They’ve come after a DROUGHT of mediocre stuff. That just how he rolls.
Look at the gap between Blade Runner and Thelma & Louise.
Or the gap between T&L and Gladiator.
Or the gap from American Gangster to the Martian!
He always makes a bunch of forgettable movies then bounces back with a banger.
Seriously go back and look. You’d be shocked at how down he was in the 90s prior to hitting big with Gladiator!
blitz, emilia perez, gladiator and september 5th as frontrunners? oh wow! i guess my money's on duck tales then
After Vencie Joker 2...I don't think so..it's tracking to open lower than the first
@davidfilmexpert true...but after the first weekend...when most of world realizes it's a musical....I think it's not going to be as popular...and that will register with the academy. Nothing against musicals, I love them...but I don't see lightning striking twice
@@davidfilmexpert weren’t you just arguing that musicals don’t do well with the modern academy unless they are La La Land level? Based of the reviews, this ain’t La La Land.
@@davidfilmexpert that’s the equivalent of saying that Furiousa is getting a best picture nomination because its predecessor got 10 nominations. Genre films already have a hard time getting into best picture- that becomes twice as hard for genre sequel films especially if the sequel is not as well received as its predecessor. Coming out of TIFF and Venice in 2019, Joker had some divisive but mostly positive reviews and WON the Golden Lion. Based on reviews and Folie a Deux’s reception so far- this just isn’t as good as the first film and that inherently makes it much harder to get in when the sequel isn’t as good as the original. Dune Part 2 is not having this problem because it’s largely considered to be better than Dune Part 1. With 10 slots, I just have a hard time believing a genre sequel is going to get into best picture when one of those slots is already pretty much guaranteed to a superior genre sequel. I wish the academy was cool enough to do more than one genre film in best picture but that’s already a hard find- let alone two genre sequel films.
@@davidfilmexpert After Folie a Deux’s disappointing box office performance and disappointing audience reviews, it’s not Mad Max or even Way of Water. Those movies both crushed the box office and were considered worthy sequels. A 5.3 audience score on IMDB and 45 metacritic score combined with disappointing box office performance means its chances for picture are done.
Remarkable life of Ibelin for documentary😊😊
I get that Gladiator 2 could knock Dune 2 out of the Best Picture lineup - but don’t forget that Top Gun 2 and Avatar 2 were both nominated for BP the same year.
I haven’t seen The Substance but the way Jeff and Mantz described it reminded me of the sci-fi film Sunshine. I thought it was a 10/10 for the first 70% of the film, and then… meh.
What about Juror #2?
What about LEE with Kate Winslet
so the best sci-film from this decade so far doesn't even crack the top 5 in contention? sci-fi and horror film disrespect is really idiotic..Denis Villeneuve disrespect is even more damning.
Not disrespectful. But Dune 2 isn't the finale of the franchise. So I doubt there will be a rush to give it Best Picture. Plus Dune 2 lacks that emotional punch compared to the other films they mentioned.
@@Gavin48If Dune gets Director which is possible, Picture can happen since it will definitely get many techs also. The rush argument is understandable but Critics Choice could start the momentum early for Denis in awards season. After that PGA and BAFTA could follow. Dune is highly acclaimed so anything is possible.
@@Gavin48 lacks emotional punch because they are biased against when it comes to scifi, there's always this stigma that heavy drama, biopics, historical, are the only ones considered to be best picture, very rare something genre wins.. in 20 years some of this so-called BP contenders will not be regarded as high, just like so many others in the past.
@venichiko9999 I wouldn't say it's biased. Sci-fi movies can be very cold. Dune 1 & 2 are both visually stunning. But the characters are very bland and stoic. I'm not the biggest fan of EEAAO, but at least that was a fantasy slash sci-fi movie that had some human element and heart. The reason Dune doesn't make the Billion Dollar Box office is because it doesn't pull you in the way movies like Star Wars do. I agree that many Best Picture winners won't be remembered in 20 years' time. But neither will Dune in the same way Star Wars, which is a timeless franchise. Many people would rather watch The Holdovers or Green Book over Dune. Drama & human emotions trump arty Sci-fi
I didn’t realize NOPE / TENET released this year…
How do we feel about Megalopolis?
No. Francis Ford Coppola is way too creepy.
Are you guys going to include Life of Chuck now?
Ahhhhh, my favorite trio
Nosferatu sweep!
Gladiator 2? LOL, surely not. After watching Napoleon I have no faith in Ridley Scott anymore. Gladiator 2 is probably entertaining but I strongly doubt it's Oscars contender.
Ridley made far worse films than Napoleon in the 90s prior to making the first Gladiator!
Hell he’s made even worse films in the 80s prior to making the masterpiece THELMA & LOUISE!
Don’t count him out yet. He always makes trash then bounces back.
@@iansmart4158 For example? What "far worse than Napoleon" movies did he make in the 80s and 90s?
@@ktom5262
Someone Watch Over Me (1987)
1492: Conquest of Paradise (1992)
Never heard of them? For good reason.
Agree other critic reviews didn’t like Emilia Perez as much as these guys Sing- Sing is sinking from other reviews also maybe actors Maria isn’t getting in as a movie Angelina maybe. Nicole Kidman always gets nominated she can sneeze & get nominated. Waiting to hear about Queer I heard mixed reviews on so many of these reviews for just about all these movies
my Oscars 2025 Best Picture predictions (September 2024)
top 10
Dìdi (Focus Features)
Anora (Neon)
Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
The Brutalist (A24)
A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
Blitz (Apple Studios)
Sing Sing (A24)
Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
next-in-line:
Conclave (Focus Features)
Nickel Boys (Orion Pictures-MGM)
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
Nosferatu (Focus Features)
The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
Queer (A24)
The Substance (Mubi)
Babygirl (A24)
Wicked (Universal Pictures)
Challengers (MGM)
We Live In Time (A24)
Joker: Folie Á Deux (Warner Bros.)
I wonder when Oscar predictors are going to take Wicked seriously? That movie is going to be huge. We know it’s gonna get into the Globes and will probably be huge at the BAFTAs given the cast.
Nah. It’s gonna be like The Color Purple last year.
@@myytchanneldinakoha8498
No it’s not for a few reasons.
1. Wicked is way more popular than The Color Purple and will do better at the box office because the musical is popular and the Wizard of Oz is well known.
2. Arianna Grande is one of the biggest stars and will have a box office draw by her name alone.
3. John Chu has directed a musical already that had Oscar buzz, the only reason it didn’t get Oscar buzz is it didn’t have big names, it didn’t have a big main performance, the musical wasn’t a big well known musical, and it was released during the pandemic and flopped at the box office.
4. John Chu is already established as being beloved by the academy. Crazy Rich Asians was an Oscar nominated movie. The color Purple was nominated by a first time director who had only directed music videos before.
5. Wicked has the power of Stephen Schwartz behind it. If you don’t know who Stephen Schwartz is, go look him up. Some of his famous works include Hunchback of Notre Dame and Prince of Egypt. He’s a big deal in the stage world, and he’s the guy who’s been composing the trailers. Basically, he’s overdue to win an Oscar.
@@myytchanneldinakoha8498
No it’s not. John Chu is an established director. Wicked is way more popular than The Color Purple, and the cast is way more stacked. Comparing those two musicals is like comparing something like Avengers Infinity War and Super and being like, “Oh, no one is going to see Avengers Infinity War because no one saw Super.”
Anora
The Brutalist
Dune Part 2
The Wild Robot
Emilia Perez
Conclave
Gladiator 2(?)
Sing Sing
A Complete Unknown (?)
emilia perez was AMAZING
Wickedator
Much better
Wicked Gladiator.
Just a couple of months ago Sing Sing was winning Picture and Lead Actor. Then festivals come and it’s over. Interesting. And poor Nickel Boys and The Piano Lesson.
Is there any actual data that shows a movies release date could hurt it's Oscar chances??
History.
I hope Mike Flanagan gets nominated.
The Wild Robot!
Animated
September 5th is not happening in Best Picture. The campaign is just going to get too controversial, if it even gets that far. And it's probably not going to be a major player in the acting or tech categories so I do not see a world where it cracks the 10 for BP without another nomination
Sing Sing is getting in. Wont win BP but its a lock for the Top 10 imo. Can't name 10 films better than this.
The "I'll teach you everything you need to know about Road War," line alone should nab Furiosa a best picture nom. I'll just come out and say it: Furiosa > Fury Road.
I’m with you brother.
Furiosa is in my top 2 of the year when Challengers.
Both should be on these lists!
Ok anyone still as pissed about the fact that the Gold Derby app still malfunctions as l am?
Scott Mantz is the king of HYPERBOLE.
Trailer for Blitz doesn't look promising and the amount of confidence in Gladiator 2 is a bit baffling to me - tech categories, sure but that's it.
I saw The Substance and wow, nomination for it would be such an iconic moment. Perhaps younger and international voters could push it
I haven’t seen any of the movies but I think Anora feel the most like a Best picture winner. I just feels like the exciting “cool” pick
The Oscars have become too niche. I love indie films and I'm happy to see some of them getting more mainstream attention. But too many of them don't age very well. Many of these films get great reviews and get Oscar consideration. Then a few years later, they seem dated or almost unwatchable.
I could be wrong but I don’t think Gladiator 2 will be good, it’s been a WHILE since Ridley Scoot did a great movie and I think the Barbenheimer set up they’re trying to promote for Gladiator and Wicked is going to hurt both movies cuz that was a one time thing impossible to replicate and both movies were great, the comparison is going to be inevitable. I can already see the memes about the failure ruining the second weekend box office
I agree more with Jeff I don’t usually agree with Perri & Scott. Perri & Scott r usually V Hollywood bubble thinking. (which is not good for the future of the film Industry) the audience is not always sheep following what Hollywood likes
Emilia Pérez was messy and not in a good way.
should move these from live sections, they don't show up
The Brutalist
My 10 picks are as follows. These are films I liked, not necessarily films that could get nominated.
Emilia Perez
Will and Harper
Any Other Way: The Jackie Shane Story
Ponyboi
How To Have Sex
Housekeeping for Beginners
Am I OK?
I Saw the TV Glow
National Anthem
Didi
Scott is a zionist?
Gladiator 2 has zero chance to be better than Dune Part 2 or upstage Dune Part 2 lmao come on guys.
10. Gladiator 2
9. A Complete Unknown
8. Saturday Night
7. Blitz
6. Emilia Perez
5. Conclave
4. Dune pt.2
3. Sing Sing
2. The Brutalist
1. Anora
On the bubble: Joker 2, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and The Nickel Boys
I think Seed of Sacred fig. International film probably win
>7th season of FYC
bruhhhhhhhh
Free Palestine 🇵🇸
No 😊
Gladiator 2? No. Stop it.
friends don't let friends believe in ridley scott (i wish we lived in the world where ridds is still pumping out bangers)
September 5? Very doubtful. Too obscure and too political. Also, Israel isn't a very popular country right now.
Unfortunately I was sadly thinking the same thing
It is actually popular, ranking 20th favorite countr of Americans in well over 100 counties (US News and World Report 9/12/2024). That’s pretty good for a country getting beaten down by extremists, receiving some pretty bad press. Many of us love it.
my predictions:
The Brutalist
Anora
Conclave
Dune Part Two
Emilia Perez
Blitz
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
A Complete Unknown
The Room Next Door
I don't feel that good about last two, but Mangold with music biopic should be a contender, and Academy love Almodovar... other contenders: Joker: Folie a Deux (probably only crafts), A Real Pain (actors, screenplay... but it could be more than that), Saturday Night (this one is screaming sole screenplay nom), Gladiator 2 (Ridley Scott is extremely hit and miss), Juror #2 (so is Eastwood lately)... and then there are only two movies directed by women, but both of them (Nightbitch, The Substance) sound too weird for Oscar (and I hope I'm wrong, I would love for The Substance to get some love!)... The Piano Lesson, His Three Daughters and The Seed of the Sacred Fig just so I could list 20 movies total, but I don't really believe in those. Am I missing something? Oh, and I don't think September 5 will be 2024. release...
Nosferatu has no chance. Jeff come on now. Youre normally the blunt voice of reason
Even though Gladiator 2 hasn't been released yet there is no way it should be ranked higher than Dune Part 2. I'm still a believer in Dune Part 2 winning for Picture, Director and Techs.
Dune will Win techs for sure. But it is way too soon to have it locked in Best Picture. It's no Oppenheimer. If it made closer to a Billion. I'd agree with you
@@Gavin48 Not saying it's locked, all I'm saying is I'm a believer. I understand the Oppenheimer comparison but each best picture winner is unique in its winning package. Look at Coda, EEAAO, or Nomadland. None of those films were huge juggernauts at the box office. Dune Part 2 made 711 mill at the box office which is enough. It could win Critics Choice or Golden Globes for Best Film & Director which is the starting of awards season. That momentum could help it win PGA, DGA and possibly Bafta. If it has momentum in some important categories early in awards season, I could see it carrying it to the Oscars. Plus I believe it's Denis Villeneuve's time. Most picture winners have Director or Screenplay to go with them which is possible with Dune Part 2.
@@Gavin48 It's better than Oppenheimer.
Dune part 2 is very overrated. The weakest movie Villeneuve has directed.
@@ktom5262That is your opinion and you are entitled to it. The fact is it has a 92% Critic & 95% Audience score on RT. As well as an A cinemascore. 711 million global box office is not to shabby either.