I discovered your channel a few weeks ago in preparation for my first trip to Vegas in a while. Better yet, my craps playing friends would just happen to be in town. I gravitated to your "favorite" strategy of using field wins to cover numbers, then press and collect. Was working great on my craps app. Then to my dismay, there was nary a $10 table to be found on the strip. Yes it was a weekend during March Madness, but my point is, I think $10 tables are becoming a thing of the past at most places. I'm going back in June, and I'll have to head downtown or build up my bankroll!
Yes, I avoid the strip. Here in Reno for a time casinos tried to stick with $25 tables all the time. Now they can be found at $10. Hopefully the tables will settle back down some
some "low end" casinos on the strip - like Excalibur, Luxor, etc - will have $10 craps early mornings, but they go up to $15 closer to lunch time. If you wantr $10 more reliably, you're looking off-strip.
I don’t know if this was the intention, but this video turned into a guide of how can I drink for free in the casino while gambling, and lose as little money as possible.
Yes, another difference between the Hardways & the Other "Hop/ Prop" Bets on the center of the Table is they are not "One Roll bets". They stay up & only lose on any "7" & Soft version of their Number. (That's why the "decisions/Hour " in your equation is smaller number) So, in an Hour, you don't have to bet that $1 on every roll. They stay up until they lose! Plus, when you win, its 7X or 9X your bet. I find if you just keep replacing them when they get knocked off, like one of the other Commentator said, " they pay for themselves" & usually give a great boost to a winning Soft Bet.
I would say this wouldn't matter based on the table minimum. The $1 hardway looks good because you're betting a small amount as opposed to your other action. It looks bad if you put it up to a $5 bet but that's only because you're scaling up the number 5 times with your other bets staying at the same amount, but if you were on a $25 dollar table, it wouldn't look half bad as a $5 bet on that table compared to your other action. I don't intend this as picking apart the video or anything, just wanted to provide some extra context. Loved the video as always! Keep up the good work, Jeremy! :D
I did not say it’s a “good” bet. The casino still pays you short 9-11% of what’s fair making it a bad bet. But when playing, the cost per hour is the best
@@ColorUp I think it's flawed because your comparison is not scaled for all bets. If you took the same thought process and scaled the pass line bet to $1, it would give it a cost per hour of only $0.42
The video is about best bet on $10 table. Not flawed at all. Of course line bet would be cheaper, fact is though, you can’t make $1 line bet. Has to be $10 while you can make $1 hard way
to anyone who is curious about the house edge, the variation around the true house edge will decrease as the sample size (number of bets) increases. For example, in a sample of only 1 bet the variation is very high. It is very likely for you to win enormous, or lose everything. The calculated average is still the same, but the true outcome has a large variation. The standard deviation (is where 68% of samples will lie in between the average - the standard deviation and average + standard deviation) decreases by the 1/squareroot of n samples. Anyways, using statistics you could create an interval so there is a 95% (or another number, 68, 99.7 etc.) chance that the value will be between a certain range. This value could be the true proportion the house kept (in terms of percentage). A positive percentage means the player won more of the money bet than the casino. A negative percentage means the casino did. The average proportion is is the house edge. We expect any sample will be a certain distance around this. If we take a random sample of bets, the sample total should be close to this. How close depends on how many bets are in the sample. Variation decreases as sample size gets larger. The interval where 95% of all outcomes will lie for a sample size of say 10 bets will be quite large. It is still within the realm of possibility that a player will win most or all of the money in just 10 bets. But what if there are 100 bets? or 1000 bets? that interval gets smaller. These next numbers are made up but a 95% interval of 20 bets might look like {-20%, +18.5%}. This means that there is a 95% chance that the value of payout for 20 bets with a true house edge of 1.5% will be between -20% and +18.5%. This interval decreases as the sample size increases (by a factor of 1/sqrt(n)). So, the interval for 100 bets might look like {-5%, +3.5%). Notice the how there is still a chance of a positive payout at this number of bets (although like I said the numbers are made up). However as we get to the really high numbers like 1000+, the interval might look like this: {-1.53% , -1.47%} This means there is a 95% (or higher, you can calculate high certainty like 99.99+%) chance that out of 10,000 or whatever samples, the payout will be between -1.53% and -1.47%. With a high enough sample size, the chance of a positive payout disappears. There is now a certainty (of x%) that the house will profit. This means that for us making 10, 20, 100 bets etc. there is a chance that our interval will contain positive values where we will win money over the casino. But over 1000's of bets, it becomes almost guaranteed profit for the casinos. Casinos would not do this if there was a decent chance all their games would bust and they would lose money. When people say "you can't beat the casino over the long run" what they mean is that you the longer you play, the more certain you will lose. Now to be honest, what people confuse is that you might not hit this point of certain negative payout in a lifetime. It depends on the house edge of the game and how often you play. An individual person can have a lifetime positive payout. The casino does not need to be positive on every single person longterm. That's why people think casinos are out to get them, they aren't. They play numbers much bigger than each individual person. Anyways, I hope that shed light on why variation is the reason why we win in the short term and the casinos win in the long term (or large sample size)
Good stuff. This why I’m not a “long term math guy” reality is we as players don’t come anywhere near the long term house edge. The casino banks on it, but we just need a little luck over the weekend.
I quickly read through the comments, but I didn’t see this pointed out…who makes a single hard way bet? Just the hard 4 for $1 and you are correct, but most players play all 4 hardways or even throw in a $5 chip saying to go high on one of them. And now we’re back to it being a bad bet. Thanks for the very interesting video regardless!
Well playing all the different hard ways is no different than playing more than one bet, pass line plus 6 and plus 8. Either way, it’s a low cost bet per hardway. To make them at $5 or or $20 for all would make them a high cost bet and move them down the list on chart I showed.
@@ColorUp I suppose, but you’re assuming when you compare it to the pass line that pass line bettors are come bettors, which is not necessarily true. If you would argue that pass line bettors who don’t make come bets likely make place/buy bets, I would agree. But in that particular (and quite common) example, the pass line (with or without odds) does beat hard ways. All I’m saying is that it’s at least contested which bet has a lower expected loss per hour.
I have been playing for cold hard $ for over 55 years, and have never looked at the hard ways like that😎. Totally believed that the hard ways were the worst bet on the table. I have since reconsidered. Just Saying. Thank you, I'm going to run a idea using this as a base strategy though Win-Craps and see what happens. Mike B.
One of my favorite strategies. All the hats for a dollar. Parlay first hit. Second hit make them look like 20. 3rd hit make them look like 40. Hot hard way shooter will fill your rack fast
Been to Vegas and Louisiana, seen 1 singular $10 table… I know its just tripling the math from a $5 table but could you do some $15 table plays every once in awhile in your vids? Thanks
I’m saying they are a low cost bet. They are still a “bad bet” as casino keeps a 10% cut. But if you want to play one or a couple for a $1, they are a low cost bet per hour
Horn bet, although you can bet together, they are actually 4 independent bets. the 2 and 12 have a house edge of 13.89% and the 3 and 11 have a house edge of 11.11%
First time my dad stepped up to a craps table was this past December in Vegas. Five dollar table Ellis Island. He was doing OK with just pass line and taking odds, and then he asked me what this “hard six” thing people are yelling. I explain it out and so he tosses five on a hard six. Hits twice in a row! On the second time I had to remind the dealer to pay because I guess he assumed it wouldn’t happen.
@@mrgraff A couple months ago, I was at Silver Legacy and saw a guy bet $150 on Hard 8. It rolled and he got paid $1,350. He also had $25 bet for the dealers and they made $225. He pressed his bet up to $250 and the dealers up to $50. He rolled it again and got paid $2,250. The dealers made $450. He then pressed his bet up to $350 and the dealers up to $75 and rolled an easy 8. Bummer!
Is this allowed and if so the advantages and disadvantages: can a player make a pass line and don’t pass at the same time then take full odds behind the line. Does the pass / don’t pass bets essentially cancel out most of the casino advantage, then allow the player to basically be betting the behind the line odds where the casino has no advantage Please let me know thoughts and where this thought fails. Thanks in advance
If you hop the easy ways and the hard way for a 6, it would be $3 per roll. $2 x 11.11% x 100 = $22.22 $1 x 13.89% x 100 = $13.89 So, if you are hop betting all the combinations of a 6, you are expected to lose $36.11 per hour.
Well they would be calculated at 100 decisions per hr because they are 1 roll bets. The easy way is 11% house edge, the hard way hop is 14% so looking at $11-14 per hour to play those bets.
Great video! I tried to make a $1 prop bet on a $10 table, and I was told that I needed a minimum of $10 in bets on the table, regardless of what bet I made. Is this a real thing, or was this worker confused/misinformed? Thanks!
So they require you to have “game action” so if it’s a $10 table you will need to be playing pass line, or place bets etc with a minimum $10 bet. what casino doesn’t allow is for people to just come up to table and throw $1 bets into middle. The table would be full of these type of $1 players.
I usually put up on the hardways on each comeout working and I won't put it back up until the next come out. Usually works pretty good because If I hit just one its paid for
As you pointed out the math is in the casinos advantage . Hard ways are a great bet. If you cover the even numbers and hit them soft you can re bet the hard ways and wait for that session / roll where you beat ( the math) . Pressing your bets and take a shot and parlaying those hard ways. Your chip count accelerates fast .
If they roll more than probability suggests, you can win, otherwise you are losing money either by losing the bets, or even if rolling to probability the casino is taking their cut out.
The takeaway here is that the fewer decisions there are the less you will lose over time. This is consistent with every bet having a negative expectation. Number of decisions is just another way to say number of bets placed and the more times and more money exposed to the house edge, the more money you can expect to lose. Based on this, we have to channel the 80's classic Wargames: "Strange game, the only winning move is not to play." Lol.
Hey Jeremy, martingaling the 7, and the horn is even a better strategy if those numbers get hot. I have been making a killing on the 15d tables here in Ohio.
I found an elusive $5 craps table at Sycuan Casino!!! However, it is on a California Indian Reservation so it uses cards, but it's the type where it just assigns a different value to each number. So all the rolls of actual dice still have all the same probabilities. They can afford to have it at $5 because it has digital bets/payouts, and that means a full table can be ran by a single stickman. While, I do enjoy holding actual chips, this digital approach is actually pretty nice if your rolling on a budget because it pays out down to the cent. So no need to place bet 6/8 in multiples of 6 or bet odds on your 5/9 with even numbers. It also takes vigs on the win for buys and x2 for 2 and x3 for 12 on the field. Definitely a fun experience considering you roll actual dice at a $5 table🎲🎲
Jeremy thanks for all your help and advice , you also are slow and informative so it's easy to learn and retain info , in regards to the rolls per hour at 100 I notice the chart or you varied depending on the bet , I would think no.matter where your bet is its still 100 bets an hour. even if it's the 7s , hard ways etc .
100 rolls per hour, but “decisions” per hour is different. A certain percentage of those 100 rolls do not effect certain bets. For instance a bet on the 4, only the 7 or the 4 effects are causes a decision. All the other numbers do not effect
@@ColorUp I wonder if you calculated the 100 rolls per hour to rolls per minute. That calculates to 1.6 rolls per minute. BULL!! Sure if there are only 1 or 2 players that number might work, but I doubt it. Craps people must not be able to do their own calculations and analysis.
The 100 was to have a number to base math on. You can redo the numbers at 50 rolls or 150 if you like. The percentage of cost per hour will scale accordingly
@@ColorUp So somebody made up that number and everybody believes that? Why wouldn't there be more accuracy? When probabilities are calculated with accuracy everywhere else in the world why would gamblers think accuracy is not important. This is money we are playing with. Using 100 as a basis is not accurate. So gamblers are gullible and believe what they hear.
There are a certain number of rolls per hour. I don’t remember what I used to base video on, let’s say 100. Some bets are resolved every roll, they are one roll bets, like field bet, would be 100 decisions or rolls per hour. A hardway bet, let’s say 6 hard, is not resolved every roll. 5 ways to roll the six, 6 ways to roll the 7. So 11 out of 36 rolls will cause a decision win or lose and that means 33 out 108 rolls or about 30 decisions out of 100.
Great video! I'm drawn to craps based on the math of the game and am always seeking good advice based on "good bets vs bad bets". For the Hard ways I will typically bet $1 on each and let them pay/loose once per shooter. If any of them hit i'll press to $5 and collect on the second hit. not sure if the math plays out to suggest this is a "better bet" than just betting the $5 up front or should i just stick to the $1 bets?
Hi Jeremy great video as usual this brings up an interesting topic with bubble craps and strategy. The "decisions per hour" portion of the calculations need to be thought of and changes if it is you "shooting" the dice or it is automated. Easy for the Casino to keep the "decisions per hour" high on an automated machine.
I've never had session on the table where hard way bets were my downfall. You're always exposing WAY more money on your pass line and place bets. They're a nice bonus when they hit and can help you dig out of a hole faster.
So, the best bet is the one where you're not playing much, which suggests that the best play is to stay away from the craps table altogether and you won't lose anything (playing craps).
If you goal is to not lose any money. Sure, just don’t play. But if your goal is to have some entertainment and take a chance to actually win money…then play.
For or To, Is just how they pay bets, 31 for 1 is same as 30 to 1, most casinos are, “if it pays it stays” meaning either way, they pay you out 30 and your still up for 1.
To keep my dealers helpful I always throw a hard way two way parlay - do it when you first start playing and you will be surprised at how much the dealers will snap to. 😎
@@hammerwde1205 - Hammer a hard way two way parlay is where you throw the stickman two hardway bets. One for you and one for the dealers, parlay means if it hits you are letting the winnings ride again on the same hardway. It doesn’t hit that often but the dealers know that if it does they are going to get a big tip. It will usually hit when you least expect it to.
@@rugger1009 I tip the dealers $5 every 20 minutes when they change positions and it seems to keep them interested. I also tip a substantial amount when I color up.
This is my favorite bet In the casino. (Spoilers) The dollar hardways can be done sometimes on a 15 dollar table. I WAS ABLE TO DO THIS IN VEGAS! 2.80 an hour loss. To play in Vegas. If you lose 3 times in a row on the each respective hardway and your sober enough to count correctly. Press it up 1 unit. Every 3 losses. Reset to 1 on any SO. Parley the hits if your a baddie.
I resubmitted my Dice Advice submission because I tinkered a bit more and greatly improved the payouts and simplified my bets for it so if you're scrolling through your submissions its titled "Improved Hat Trick" even if you don't make a video I think you will be real interested in how it rolls out
Don't misunderstand me, they are still bad bets as the casino pays you short by 9-11%, but when considering cost per hour, you can play them, have fun, and they not cost you much to play on a per hour basis.
Glad to hear about this! Hardways is part of my regular betting schedule! My strategy is betting $5 on all the Hardways, and heavy on the point number, if applicable. Otherwise, just $4. Anyways, I often parlay any Hardway win since the initial investments are low. Maybe you can do a video on this strategy?!
I am putting in a claim with the better business bureau! The audacity these casinos have to purposely take so much money from us off of one bet! How dare they!
Love the statistical mathematical analysis. The casinos use it against us, let's use it against them. Hardways are great for hedging, not more than that.
But as total percent of wager, field cost is 5.5% an hour. Where hardway 4 or 10 is over 10% per hour. That's why you stayed away from larger hardway bet amounts.
Field bet has a minimum bet of $10 on a $10 table and its a 1 roll bet, meaning the decisions per hour is 100. Cost is $55 per hour. Hard way has 25 decisions per hour, so even with a higher house edge bet of 11% you would have to make $20 hard way bet to lose as much as field bet per hour.
@@ColorUp Yes I watched the video. However, In that hour you would bet $1000 in the field and only $25 on a hard way number. So essentially your secret is to bet less to lose less.
Anytime you bet less you will lose less. That is correct. With tables mostly at $10-15 nowadays, it is great to have a low cost option. But you are more than welcome to bet $25 on hardways if you like.
@@ColorUp You are the one saying to bet $1 x 25 decisions in an hour. That is the $25 we are speaking about. You say that costs $2.70+ on hard ways. That is more than 10% of your money to the casino.
Let's say the dealers are handing me singles cause I hit a few I press whatever hardways hit by a buck....I got my money out at that point if it hits again good. If it drops and I still have 1s in my rack I throw em in
I honestly love the field bet. Usually, I will go $25 on the first one, then if I miss - chase it and put $50. Miss again, chase with $100 (if I still got money in my rack by then) 😂🤘🏻
Nope, not every bet is listed, but I can tell you easily, it would be low on lost and expensive bet at $4 and 100 rolls per hour and all having very high house edge
The game has been around hundred years or more. Of course nothing new. Does that mean I can’t bring attention to things? I don’t understand your comment?
@@Marthisdil Point taken. Just because I’M a collector & frequent visitor to the Schwarz’ Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas, is no reason to suppose ALL dice fans do the same LoL. ( Although, to be fair, I’m sure the hardway hourlies appear in half a dozen OTHER titles. ( I cited the Hanback as it remains a personal favorite. )
Totally flawed logic . You can't compare different bet amounts and different decision numbers and say one is better than the other. You have to equalize the bets and numbers of decisions
Well at $1 the hard way bets would stay the same. All the other bets that are now $10 or $12 would move up to $15 and $18 and would cost even more per hour. Some $15 tables may have minimum bets on the hard ways of $5 though, but usually that doesn't happen until $25 tables.
Man your videos have gotten so dang professional and tight since you started. Love watching them, So informative and so well done.
Thanks!!!!
I discovered your channel a few weeks ago in preparation for my first trip to Vegas in a while. Better yet, my craps playing friends would just happen to be in town. I gravitated to your "favorite" strategy of using field wins to cover numbers, then press and collect. Was working great on my craps app. Then to my dismay, there was nary a $10 table to be found on the strip. Yes it was a weekend during March Madness, but my point is, I think $10 tables are becoming a thing of the past at most places. I'm going back in June, and I'll have to head downtown or build up my bankroll!
Yes, I avoid the strip. Here in Reno for a time casinos tried to stick with $25 tables all the time. Now they can be found at $10. Hopefully the tables will settle back down some
I hear Ellis island has some good tables, not far off the strip
@@ColorUp Hope is all we got. Thanks for the response!
@@themonesterman6307 I second this. It's been inexpensive for tables and food when I've gone.
some "low end" casinos on the strip - like Excalibur, Luxor, etc - will have $10 craps early mornings, but they go up to $15 closer to lunch time. If you wantr $10 more reliably, you're looking off-strip.
I don’t know if this was the intention, but this video turned into a guide of how can I drink for free in the casino while gambling, and lose as little money as possible.
This video was very interesting and informative. Thanks for a great explanation!
Wow! Excellent as always! 🤯
Damn GREAT video!! Very full of value.
Glad you liked thanks
How would you feel about the iron cross and a minimum bet on the hard 7?
Yes, another difference between the Hardways & the Other "Hop/ Prop" Bets on the center of the Table is they are not "One Roll bets". They stay up & only lose on any "7" & Soft version of their Number. (That's why the "decisions/Hour " in your equation is smaller number)
So, in an Hour, you don't have to bet that $1 on every roll. They stay up until they lose! Plus, when you win, its 7X or 9X your bet.
I find if you just keep replacing them when they get knocked off, like one of the other Commentator said, " they pay for themselves" & usually give a great boost to a winning Soft Bet.
Correct there are 25 or 30 decisions per hour, where as all other prop bets, although similar house edge, they have 100 decision per hour.
I would say this wouldn't matter based on the table minimum. The $1 hardway looks good because you're betting a small amount as opposed to your other action. It looks bad if you put it up to a $5 bet but that's only because you're scaling up the number 5 times with your other bets staying at the same amount, but if you were on a $25 dollar table, it wouldn't look half bad as a $5 bet on that table compared to your other action. I don't intend this as picking apart the video or anything, just wanted to provide some extra context. Loved the video as always! Keep up the good work, Jeremy! :D
I did not say it’s a “good” bet. The casino still pays you short 9-11% of what’s fair making it a bad bet. But when playing, the cost per hour is the best
@@ColorUp Oh yeah no, I totally get that. I just meant in comparison to what you're already risking on other larger bets, it's not as bad.
@@ColorUp I think it's flawed because your comparison is not scaled for all bets. If you took the same thought process and scaled the pass line bet to $1, it would give it a cost per hour of only $0.42
The video is about best bet on $10 table. Not flawed at all. Of course line bet would be cheaper, fact is though, you can’t make $1 line bet. Has to be $10 while you can make $1 hard way
If you don't compare the same amount of decisions for the various bets then you're just fooling yourself
to anyone who is curious about the house edge, the variation around the true house edge will decrease as the sample size (number of bets) increases. For example, in a sample of only 1 bet the variation is very high. It is very likely for you to win enormous, or lose everything. The calculated average is still the same, but the true outcome has a large variation. The standard deviation (is where 68% of samples will lie in between the average - the standard deviation and average + standard deviation) decreases by the 1/squareroot of n samples.
Anyways, using statistics you could create an interval so there is a 95% (or another number, 68, 99.7 etc.) chance that the value will be between a certain range. This value could be the true proportion the house kept (in terms of percentage). A positive percentage means the player won more of the money bet than the casino. A negative percentage means the casino did.
The average proportion is is the house edge. We expect any sample will be a certain distance around this.
If we take a random sample of bets, the sample total should be close to this. How close depends on how many bets are in the sample. Variation decreases as sample size gets larger.
The interval where 95% of all outcomes will lie for a sample size of say 10 bets will be quite large. It is still within the realm of possibility that a player will win most or all of the money in just 10 bets. But what if there are 100 bets? or 1000 bets? that interval gets smaller.
These next numbers are made up but a 95% interval of 20 bets might look like {-20%, +18.5%}. This means that there is a 95% chance that the value of payout for 20 bets with a true house edge of 1.5% will be between -20% and +18.5%. This interval decreases as the sample size increases (by a factor of 1/sqrt(n)). So, the interval for 100 bets might look like {-5%, +3.5%). Notice the how there is still a chance of a positive payout at this number of bets (although like I said the numbers are made up). However as we get to the really high numbers like 1000+, the interval might look like this:
{-1.53% , -1.47%}
This means there is a 95% (or higher, you can calculate high certainty like 99.99+%) chance that out of 10,000 or whatever samples, the payout will be between -1.53% and -1.47%. With a high enough sample size, the chance of a positive payout disappears. There is now a certainty (of x%) that the house will profit.
This means that for us making 10, 20, 100 bets etc. there is a chance that our interval will contain positive values where we will win money over the casino. But over 1000's of bets, it becomes almost guaranteed profit for the casinos. Casinos would not do this if there was a decent chance all their games would bust and they would lose money.
When people say "you can't beat the casino over the long run" what they mean is that you the longer you play, the more certain you will lose. Now to be honest, what people confuse is that you might not hit this point of certain negative payout in a lifetime. It depends on the house edge of the game and how often you play. An individual person can have a lifetime positive payout. The casino does not need to be positive on every single person longterm. That's why people think casinos are out to get them, they aren't. They play numbers much bigger than each individual person.
Anyways, I hope that shed light on why variation is the reason why we win in the short term and the casinos win in the long term (or large sample size)
Good stuff. This why I’m not a “long term math guy” reality is we as players don’t come anywhere near the long term house edge. The casino banks on it, but we just need a little luck over the weekend.
Thanks for the info I'm from reno what's your best casino for craps in reno
I like GSR, Atlantis peppermill
WHOA! 🤯 This is insane! I would've NEVER thought the Hard Ways is where you were going with this! I am truly shocked by this! 🤯🤯🤯
Haha, surprise!
Because it's total bulshit
I quickly read through the comments, but I didn’t see this pointed out…who makes a single hard way bet? Just the hard 4 for $1 and you are correct, but most players play all 4 hardways or even throw in a $5 chip saying to go high on one of them. And now we’re back to it being a bad bet. Thanks for the very interesting video regardless!
Well playing all the different hard ways is no different than playing more than one bet, pass line plus 6 and plus 8. Either way, it’s a low cost bet per hardway. To make them at $5 or or $20 for all would make them a high cost bet and move them down the list on chart I showed.
@@ColorUp I suppose, but you’re assuming when you compare it to the pass line that pass line bettors are come bettors, which is not necessarily true. If you would argue that pass line bettors who don’t make come bets likely make place/buy bets, I would agree. But in that particular (and quite common) example, the pass line (with or without odds) does beat hard ways. All I’m saying is that it’s at least contested which bet has a lower expected loss per hour.
I have been playing for cold hard $ for over 55 years, and have never looked at the hard ways like that😎. Totally believed that the hard ways were the worst bet on the table. I have since reconsidered.
Just Saying.
Thank you, I'm going to run a idea using this as a base strategy though Win-Craps and see what happens.
Mike B.
Well they are still "bad bets" as the casino short changes you 9-11% on payout, but they are a low cost play.
One of my favorite strategies. All the hats for a dollar. Parlay first hit. Second hit make them look like 20. 3rd hit make them look like 40. Hot hard way shooter will fill your rack fast
Been to Vegas and Louisiana, seen 1 singular $10 table… I know its just tripling the math from a $5 table but could you do some $15 table plays every once in awhile in your vids? Thanks
I'm new to hardways.. Are you saying you put a dollar bet on all 4 hardways or you just pick 1 or 2??
I’m saying they are a low cost bet. They are still a “bad bet” as casino keeps a 10% cut. But if you want to play one or a couple for a $1, they are a low cost bet per hour
Any of my strategies include tossing 'change' on hardways.
Boom. Love the secrets. Keep em coming
Will do, thanks
I play the hardways for 1$ all the time especially when doing 51 inside as it cleans up the initial change nicely. on 10 and 15 dollar tables
does the horn bet have the same house edge as the any 7 bet because they both have only 6 ways to win?
Horn bet, although you can bet together, they are actually 4 independent bets. the 2 and 12 have a house edge of 13.89% and the 3 and 11 have a house edge of 11.11%
I like the $1 bet and then parlay a win for a bigger win!
Lot of fun when it hits
First time my dad stepped up to a craps table was this past December in Vegas. Five dollar table Ellis Island. He was doing OK with just pass line and taking odds, and then he asked me what this “hard six” thing people are yelling. I explain it out and so he tosses five on a hard six. Hits twice in a row! On the second time I had to remind the dealer to pay because I guess he assumed it wouldn’t happen.
Ha, crazy beginner luck. Love it!
Did he press the Hard 6?
@@jimklemens5018 and end up with $500? Sadly, no!
@@mrgraff A couple months ago, I was at Silver Legacy and saw a guy bet $150 on Hard 8. It rolled and he got paid $1,350. He also had $25 bet for the dealers and they made $225.
He pressed his bet up to $250 and the dealers up to $50. He rolled it again and got paid $2,250. The dealers made $450.
He then pressed his bet up to $350 and the dealers up to $75 and rolled an easy 8. Bummer!
Is this allowed and if so the advantages and disadvantages: can a player make a pass line and don’t pass at the same time then take full odds behind the line. Does the pass / don’t pass bets essentially cancel out most of the casino advantage, then allow the player to basically be betting the behind the line odds where the casino has no advantage Please let me know thoughts and where this thought fails. Thanks in advance
Called the “doey dont” I made a video on that question. ruclips.net/video/ryOQEh4bjQ0/видео.html
That's why I play the School of Hard Knocks
I'm going to try your methods today .....wish me luck 🤞🙏
I’m no mathematician
But what about the hops bet of 6/8
What’s the edge or math on those bets
If you hop the easy ways and the hard way for a 6, it would be $3 per roll.
$2 x 11.11% x 100 = $22.22
$1 x 13.89% x 100 = $13.89
So, if you are hop betting all the combinations of a 6, you are expected to lose $36.11 per hour.
Well they would be calculated at 100 decisions per hr because they are 1 roll bets. The easy way is 11% house edge, the hard way hop is 14% so looking at $11-14 per hour to play those bets.
Would there be a benefit to betting on the hard 6 vs the 10?
Its a few cents cheaper per hour to play. Just have to guess and pick the one you think will roll.
Great video! I tried to make a $1 prop bet on a $10 table, and I was told that I needed a minimum of $10 in bets on the table, regardless of what bet I made. Is this a real thing, or was this worker confused/misinformed? Thanks!
So they require you to have “game action” so if it’s a $10 table you will need to be playing pass line, or place bets etc with a minimum $10 bet.
what casino doesn’t allow is for people to just come up to table and throw $1 bets into middle. The table would be full of these type of $1 players.
I usually put up on the hardways on each comeout working and I won't put it back up until the next come out. Usually works pretty good because If I hit just one its paid for
I love your channel
Thanks!
Great analysis
As you pointed out the math is in the casinos advantage . Hard ways are a great bet. If you cover the even numbers and hit them soft you can re bet the hard ways and wait for that session / roll where you beat ( the math) . Pressing your bets and take a shot and parlaying those hard ways. Your chip count accelerates fast .
If they roll more than probability suggests, you can win, otherwise you are losing money either by losing the bets, or even if rolling to probability the casino is taking their cut out.
The takeaway here is that the fewer decisions there are the less you will lose over time. This is consistent with every bet having a negative expectation. Number of decisions is just another way to say number of bets placed and the more times and more money exposed to the house edge, the more money you can expect to lose.
Based on this, we have to channel the 80's classic Wargames: "Strange game, the only winning move is not to play." Lol.
Correct. Less you bet, the less you lose.
Hey Jeremy, martingaling the 7, and the horn is even a better strategy if those numbers get hot. I have been making a killing on the 15d tables here in Ohio.
I found an elusive $5 craps table at Sycuan Casino!!! However, it is on a California Indian Reservation so it uses cards, but it's the type where it just assigns a different value to each number. So all the rolls of actual dice still have all the same probabilities.
They can afford to have it at $5 because it has digital bets/payouts, and that means a full table can be ran by a single stickman. While, I do enjoy holding actual chips, this digital approach is actually pretty nice if your rolling on a budget because it pays out down to the cent. So no need to place bet 6/8 in multiples of 6 or bet odds on your 5/9 with even numbers. It also takes vigs on the win for buys and x2 for 2 and x3 for 12 on the field.
Definitely a fun experience considering you roll actual dice at a $5 table🎲🎲
No dice? Why?
Jeremy thanks for all your help and advice , you also are slow and informative so it's easy to learn and retain info , in regards to the rolls per hour at 100 I notice the chart or you varied depending on the bet , I would think no.matter where your bet is its still 100 bets an hour.
even if it's the 7s , hard ways etc .
100 rolls per hour, but “decisions” per hour is different. A certain percentage of those 100 rolls do not effect certain bets.
For instance a bet on the 4, only the 7 or the 4 effects are causes a decision. All the other numbers do not effect
@@ColorUp I wonder if you calculated the 100 rolls per hour to rolls per minute. That calculates to 1.6 rolls per minute. BULL!! Sure if there are only 1 or 2 players that number might work, but I doubt it. Craps people must not be able to do their own calculations and analysis.
The 100 was to have a number to base math on. You can redo the numbers at 50 rolls or 150 if you like. The percentage of cost per hour will scale accordingly
@@ColorUp So somebody made up that number and everybody believes that? Why wouldn't there be more accuracy? When probabilities are calculated with accuracy everywhere else in the world why would gamblers think accuracy is not important. This is money we are playing with. Using 100 as a basis is not accurate. So gamblers are gullible and believe what they hear.
@@ColorUp Sorry I am not trying to be an asshole. But just using numbers randomly irks my soul.
Did you drop this a day early by mistake?
I'm confused. Why are you using the house edge instead of the odds of the bet winning?
day early? There are many ways to understand bets- house edge, odds, probability and in this video I look at the cost per hour.
@@ColorUp I think he is sarcastically referring to April Fool's day! 🤣
I don't get how you figure the decisions per hr vary with every different type of bet.
There are a certain number of rolls per hour. I don’t remember what I used to base video on, let’s say 100. Some bets are resolved every roll, they are one roll bets, like field bet, would be 100 decisions or rolls per hour. A hardway bet, let’s say 6 hard, is not resolved every roll. 5 ways to roll the six, 6 ways to roll the 7. So 11 out of 36 rolls will cause a decision win or lose and that means 33 out 108 rolls or about 30 decisions out of 100.
Great video! I'm drawn to craps based on the math of the game and am always seeking good advice based on "good bets vs bad bets". For the Hard ways I will typically bet $1 on each and let them pay/loose once per shooter. If any of them hit i'll press to $5 and collect on the second hit. not sure if the math plays out to suggest this is a "better bet" than just betting the $5 up front or should i just stick to the $1 bets?
Well cost per hour you want to bet as little as possible, but either way the casino is taking their 9-11% cut out of any win so still bad bet
This is just sort of if you just want to hang out, soak up the atmosphere, and rake in the comped drinks.
I wait for the field to not hit 2 times in a row. Bet five, double up if you need to. Then start over. Other then that maybe I buy the 8.
Wow did not expect that! And everyone likes to tell me I waste my money on the hard ways……
Well, still a “bad bet” as casino takes big cut. But good deal to play, very low cost 😀
Hi Jeremy great video as usual this brings up an interesting topic with bubble craps and strategy. The "decisions per hour" portion of the calculations need to be thought of and changes if it is you "shooting" the dice or it is automated. Easy for the Casino to keep the "decisions per hour" high on an automated machine.
Well some bubble craps, individual ones, you push button at your own rate, but I’m guessing still rolls per hour would go way up playing by self
I've never had session on the table where hard way bets were my downfall. You're always exposing WAY more money on your pass line and place bets. They're a nice bonus when they hit and can help you dig out of a hole faster.
I always throw a dollar on the hard 4/10 and if it hits I parlay it and will parlay twice then take money.
Thanks again Jeremy
So, the best bet is the one where you're not playing much, which suggests that the best play is to stay away from the craps table altogether and you won't lose anything (playing craps).
If you goal is to not lose any money. Sure, just don’t play. But if your goal is to have some entertainment and take a chance to actually win money…then play.
I'm seeing the center bets being "for" bets instead of "to" bets . they keep your bet if you win or lose .
For or To, Is just how they pay bets, 31 for 1 is same as 30 to 1, most casinos are, “if it pays it stays” meaning either way, they pay you out 30 and your still up for 1.
To keep my dealers helpful I always throw a hard way two way parlay - do it when you first start playing and you will be surprised at how much the dealers will snap to. 😎
what does "hard way two way parlay" mean? thx
@@hammerwde1205 - Hammer a hard way two way parlay is where you throw the stickman two hardway bets. One for you and one for the dealers, parlay means if it hits you are letting the winnings ride again on the same hardway. It doesn’t hit that often but the dealers know that if it does they are going to get a big tip. It will usually hit when you least expect it to.
@@rugger1009 Why don't you just toss $5 to the dealer and tell them to put it in their toke box?
@@jimklemens5018 - The dealers love to be in on the action. If it hits and it does, then they get a great tip. Try it they’ll love you.
@@rugger1009 I tip the dealers $5 every 20 minutes when they change positions and it seems to keep them interested.
I also tip a substantial amount when I color up.
Very interesting!
I think so too!
This is my favorite bet In the casino. (Spoilers)
The dollar hardways can be done sometimes on a 15 dollar table. I WAS ABLE TO DO THIS IN VEGAS! 2.80 an hour loss. To play in Vegas.
If you lose 3 times in a row on the each respective hardway and your sober enough to count correctly. Press it up 1 unit. Every 3 losses.
Reset to 1 on any SO.
Parley the hits if your a baddie.
But seriously don't parley the hits.
I like it, but are you talking one hard way bet or the more common one dollar on each hard way?
Either way it’s a low cost bet. Still not a good bet because casino takes 10% cut. But….
But you still have to bet a $10 minimum right?
Prop bets you do not. They have a lower minimum bet. Usually $1 for prop bets until you are at a $25 table then the prop bets go up to $5
I resubmitted my Dice Advice submission because I tinkered a bit more and greatly improved the payouts and simplified my bets for it so if you're scrolling through your submissions its titled "Improved Hat Trick" even if you don't make a video I think you will be real interested in how it rolls out
Thanks
I feel dumb I always thought the hard bets were suckers bets.
Hardway bets are for suckers.
Don't misunderstand me, they are still bad bets as the casino pays you short by 9-11%, but when considering cost per hour, you can play them, have fun, and they not cost you much to play on a per hour basis.
This is a good video....
Mind = blown... I'm so throwing $1's in on the hardways !!!!!
Still “bad bets” but at least low cost fun bets
It's more like 50 rolls per hour when I'm playing.
Some tables are very slow
I feel like, for funzies only, bet a $1 hard 4 and 10, then when it hits, drop another dollar, and press parlay to $11. Cause why not?
Sure, it’s gambling for entertainment
Glad to hear about this! Hardways is part of my regular betting schedule! My strategy is betting $5 on all the Hardways, and heavy on the point number, if applicable. Otherwise, just $4. Anyways, I often parlay any Hardway win since the initial investments are low. Maybe you can do a video on this strategy?!
Still a “bad bet” as they keep 9-11% but they are fun
I am putting in a claim with the better business bureau! The audacity these casinos have to purposely take so much money from us off of one bet! How dare they!
Legalized theft.
I see have a $1 out on one of the hard ways sometimes. See? I was a secret step ahead.
No thanks. I'll keep it simple and still avoid the center action. Even at a dollar.
Still bad bets even though low cost to play. Casino takes their 10% cut which is outrageous!
i believe in the come bet. change my mind.
No need to. Good bet, has its advantages and disadvantages
Love the statistical mathematical analysis. The casinos use it against us, let's use it against them. Hardways are great for hedging, not more than that.
But as total percent of wager, field cost is 5.5% an hour. Where hardway 4 or 10 is over 10% per hour. That's why you stayed away from larger hardway bet amounts.
Field bet has a minimum bet of $10 on a $10 table and its a 1 roll bet, meaning the decisions per hour is 100. Cost is $55 per hour. Hard way has 25 decisions per hour, so even with a higher house edge bet of 11% you would have to make $20 hard way bet to lose as much as field bet per hour.
@@ColorUp Yes I watched the video. However, In that hour you would bet $1000 in the field and only $25 on a hard way number. So essentially your secret is to bet less to lose less.
Anytime you bet less you will lose less. That is correct. With tables mostly at $10-15 nowadays, it is great to have a low cost option. But you are more than welcome to bet $25 on hardways if you like.
@@ColorUp You are the one saying to bet $1 x 25 decisions in an hour. That is the $25 we are speaking about. You say that costs $2.70+ on hard ways. That is more than 10% of your money to the casino.
House edge still applies, 9-11% is what you give up to house. Not saying good bet. Saying low cost bet.
Let's say the dealers are handing me singles cause I hit a few I press whatever hardways hit by a buck....I got my money out at that point if it hits again good. If it drops and I still have 1s in my rack I throw em in
For me it's a 'if I have singles and I have already tipped dealers' thing.
Someone told me every 5 dollars on the lay bet bet 1 on the hardways
Someone is going to read that table and think it’s better to bet a high-low for $2 than $5 in the field every roll.
Cost per hour it probably is…house edge the field bet is significantly better
First,,,yes...lol
appreciate you jumping in
I honestly love the field bet. Usually, I will go $25 on the first one, then if I miss - chase it and put $50. Miss again, chase with $100 (if I still got money in my rack by then) 😂🤘🏻
Gambling is for entertainment. Bad bets are great if they hit and you win!
I love the field as well, but I play it very randomly with my pass line, odds and placed bets. Sometimes a field sometimes not. Works ok.
you didn't saw the horn in that list
Nope, not every bet is listed, but I can tell you easily, it would be low on lost and expensive bet at $4 and 100 rolls per hour and all having very high house edge
Surprising.....
The 5% Cost Per Hour on Hardways was cited on page 152, Figure 6-1: Betting Summary-Casino Bank Craps, HOW TO WIN AT CRAPS by Frank Hanback, Holloway Press, © 1984. Nothing new here.
because everyone has an almost 40 year old book...
The game has been around hundred years or more. Of course nothing new. Does that mean I can’t bring attention to things? I don’t understand your comment?
@@ColorUp No slight intended. You offer impressive content. I quibble with the "Secret" aspect, in the caption is all..
Gotta attract views is all 😉 info no good if no one sees it. Appreciate you watching, and I’ll have to pick up that book….I think i might already have
@@Marthisdil Point taken. Just because I’M a collector & frequent visitor to the Schwarz’ Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas, is no reason to suppose ALL dice fans do the same LoL.
( Although, to be fair, I’m sure the hardway hourlies appear in half a dozen OTHER titles.
( I cited the Hanback as it remains a personal favorite. )
Totally flawed logic . You can't compare different bet amounts and different decision numbers and say one is better than the other. You have to equalize the bets and numbers of decisions
*I don't play to lose **_any_** amount.* Otherwise I would just go get a job working for someone.
You aren’t comparing apples to apples on cost per hour. Of course the cheapest way to play a $10 table is to make $1 bets
Ok, but it is a $10 table, and you can make $1 bets on hard ways and they are not one roll bets, making them the cheapest bet on a $10 table.
Does this apply to a 15 dollar table as well? 10 dollar tables are almost becoming extinct…
Well at $1 the hard way bets would stay the same. All the other bets that are now $10 or $12 would move up to $15 and $18 and would cost even more per hour. Some $15 tables may have minimum bets on the hard ways of $5 though, but usually that doesn't happen until $25 tables.
Based on the math, you would still have a low cost per hour on a $15 table if you were able to bet $2 hardway
Low-cost play? LOL you bet less you lose less duh