James Howard Kunstler: Peak Oil and Our Financial Decline
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- Опубликовано: 16 окт 2024
- In this fourth video in the series "Peak Oil and a Changing Climate" from The Nation magazine and On The Earth Productions, James Howard Kunstler discusses how finance and energy are running neck and neck to fuel the end of advanced industrial civilization.
For more videos in the series, visit www.TheNation.com.
Of course, fracking temporarily delayed global peak oil. COVID-19 masked its recent declines by slowing oil consumption. Many people will be caught off guard when shale drilling peaks, exposing real scarcity as the economy tries to keep growing. This includes the vital role of fossil fuels in building quasi-renewables.
Kabooom ! Visionary, realist , prophet.
What I say may be shocking, but I think people need to be shocked. - James Howard Kunstler.
Survivalism for grown-ups.
I wish I could give multiple thumbs up.
People are not going to change... we're all fucked. It's just a house of cards waiting to fall.
Peak oil prediction since 70s, 00s all proved wrong
@@robbenvanpersie1562 if that were the case, why were we importing expensive oil in the 70's? Why did we start fracking when fracking is expensive and toxic to our water supplies? You are a moron!
collapse 😁
Still applies more than ever
JHK and many others have been telling us this is happening for quite awhile and the funny thing is 'that it IS happening right now' all around us.
You might want to look at what is happening in the world beyond our borders.
We are definitely living in Interesting times, enjoy.
No matter how you try and sugar coat the subject at hand,it should be fairly obvious that nothing can grow forever... One day infinite growth will collide with finite energy, just look at the trends...
yes the fallacy of exponential movement on a finite plain will become glaringly obvious when there is no more energy to supplant such exchanges....it is a waste until all displacements benefit the evolutionary prowess of mankind.
Maybe, live on another planet-?? 🤔😁
A boomer who got described as a doomer before the memes even got made. Wow. How far in the future is this man living?
This guys a boomer doomer.
How exact for 2022 ..maybe Russia doesn't want $$. , ,,€€ paper unbacked by gold credit notes
@@pbonney name calling is not an argument.
@@redbear4027 I know that, I only said that as a play on words.
Without Oil nothing gets built, moved or perserved. How else can we live such luxury lives. The USA use to be the largest oil producers in the world in the early 20th century thats why the USA has the most roadways in any country in the world, why? for transporting all our foods and goods.
I disagree with his previous opinion about the suburbs (becoming slums of the future) though as one could be near self sufficient with growing crops in a yard (land) and the residents using them as microfarms (my grandparents did this in the great depression of the 1930's).Without food the densified cities could be a Soylent green type of a situation however his assessment prediction here (opinion) in this video is spot on right.One as an individual should prepare for becoming self sufficient
One of my big concerns is whether you can trust people who manage mutual funds and retirement accounts. If they're Peak Oil deniers and falsely predict continued growth, your money could tank along with their pipe dreams. Picking one's own stocks seems wise in that context.
It's also hard to know if fossil fuel industry stocks will rise or decline as the peak progresses. Will more revenue per barrel be nullified by the higher cost of extraction?
Strange reality makes good history.
Your initial delivery of valid points and reasonable opinions make a respectable, favorable presentation for the masses. As for the rest of us that are fed up with subtle excuses constantly made for our "public" appointed political and monetary powers that be, the typical sugar coated jargon is easily spotted sounding worse than a broken record. We Americans are resilient and will pull together through financial hardship as handouts are not in our blood. The Propaganda stench is past expiration.
But you cannot exist in isolation..just using and not sharing ..particularly energy and food..allowing large parts of the world to starve and freeze..Russia has decided worthless €€. $$. Paper Credit notes in exchange for irreplaceable energy
The commercial aviation industry is ALREADY not working the way we were used to!
@KrunchyJD I totally agree that that is the best model moving forward (I've been to Copenhagen and it's a beautiful city.) However, reducing oil consumption (per person or total) means relying more on the energy income of sunlight through whatever tech or biological means. You sound pretty tuned in but you must recognise that these steps (reducing reliance upon globalised systems) come into direct conflict with the demands of the growth paradigm. In other words, growth is the problem.
Yes I have been in Copenhagen too.... with my private 250ft. yacht. The seminar was totally worth the 120000 gallons we burnt for this trip.
OMG, I can't believe that Kunstler told us that environmentalists just want to find another way to run a car. If we had an electric car, we come back to the problems associated with natural resources, because the Earth doesn't have an infinite supply of copper, iron ore, or bauxite.
Think the battery metals are even rarer
7:07 He says he doesn't know exactly how it will all play out - correct. We can see the storm clouds gathering, but we don't know when the first drops will fall or how bad the storm will be.
I disagree about the reporters. They are told not to report anything offensive against their advertisers which are mainly the banks and car dealers. Also they can't report anything discouraging consumption. Everything must be made out to be rosy.
@KrunchyJD "we can still have growth" Do not pass go. Do not collect £200. Peak oil means end the of our exponential growth, the one begets the other.
Yeah you say that but how is there still mass immigration and flights?
If I remember correctly we are in Denmark in the top 3 of countries regarding: use of resources / person.
Currency failure will come first. When that happens, everything will come unglued. I'm glad that I will be dead and gone soon. I would not want to be just graduating from high school today.
I think you thoughts are sound. thanks
We don't seem to be that far off on fusion power, 20-50 years, once that happens assuming it's doesn't require some extremely limited materials, will change everything.
Actually MIT just announced a breakthrough in fusion tech. The reality of fusion power is closer than ever.
@@stopthephilosophicalzombie9017 Yeah Fusion works... But it consumes more power than it produces. I wouldn't exactly say we're closer than ever... The energy cliff is ahead of us.
@@VFatalis We are closer than ever, but also perpetually 10 year away from practical application
Mr Kunstler is very right about the ability of bankrupt political/economic systems to keep going long after they have ceased to function well, We'll be looking at another US election and build up to war, like this one, in ten years time and asking ourselves, how long this can go on before someone does something? climate and peak oil are not subject to the same rules however, they'll come when they are ready.
Your comment aged well, hope you survived the rona
why doesn't Kunstler explore the world of alternative energy such as Tesla technology. why doesn't he go into issue of the suppression of alternative energy sources?? geo thermal energy for example.
Because even if this is available now, we no longer have energy to scale up the alternative energy device to a significant degree.
@@celiacheung1985 there's always $$ for war (Biden's billions to Ukraine e.g.)
@@Toots22 Energy is not equivalent to money.
On the subject of peak oil, I am three things. A Realist, an optimist and a pessimist.
Let me explain. I am a realist= I believe oil is a finite substance, and either has peaked or is close to peaking.
An optimist, in that I believe that if we are smart, we can still have growth, the dollar is a fiat currency, and is soverign, we can do things like create walkable bikable communities.
A pessimist, because, I believe those in charge are ignorant and dumb, and will not act until it is to late.
13:13 - 16:07 : a striking intellectual failure... awesome point
13:13
I don't understand how buying things rapidly causes hyperinflation.
Why does everyone ignore methane hydrates? It’s not reasonable to ignore this vast resource which could potentially make earlier forms of petroleum extraction trivial by comparison.
If the world didn't have it's head up it's ass, we would be building thorium reactors.
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necessity is giving us the next development : industrial revolution, information revolution, wisdom revolution
Our capital is being squandered on $60,000 SUV's
He's describing everyone living like the Amish people
Here in the UK that's very much how/where things are going.
Wow, mr Lahey really got his shit together…
@danfromabove I dont agree. Creating walkable, bikable communities, growing food closer, etc will allow a high standard of living while reducing oil consumption. Case in Point, Denmark, Copenhagen is a walkable bikable city and in fact around 37% of trips are by bike, they use less oil per person, but have a higher standard of living then the US.
Sure, I dont think the USA, or where i'm from Australia, will do this because we are idiots, but it can be done.
With all those jihadies walking around just wait it wont be a walking city.
The peak oil nut cases will be right someday.
It could be today, could be in 200 years.
Happy Corona arsehole. 😂
@qwizzer78 If the president was to acknowledge this it could cause bigger problems and panic. He has a responsibility to deal with the problem without ever acknowledging it.
the socks!
Go with the shirt 😄
One last thing, Gold is a hedge against inflation, and Never loses its value. Its not held as a short term investment to increase ones short term Paper supply. It is a hard asset that has stood the test of time. Encouraging the risky and horrible investment of ones last bit of paper life savings into more fiat paper currency is shamefull. That advice is no different than getting advice from an asshole on how to be clean always smelling fresh.
I think JHK has changed his views a bit since this was recorded 14 years ago...
One person or another has said this is the year of peak oil, for the last 100 years.
A stopped clock is right twice a day, but these guys are not right once a century.
Jay Dubs
Next time you get a 25 cent per hour job.
gumzster
You have a bad case of gloom and doom. I have stayed optimistic and made 20% compounded over the last 20 years. I made nothing in the 15 years from 1967 to 1982.
gumzster
there are not more wars now than there were on average previous decades.
the only people benefiting from this are people like Kunstler who try to portray themselves as the ultimate authorities and prophets. he is not even an economist. just a writer with an opinion.
zarni000
He is an armchair something.
It's happening already, it is currently being parlayed into deception-filled financial instruments, ask Warren Buffett about derivatives.
@Nater245689 If we go about it your way, our future is another Dark Ages, think about it.
Kunstler is funny though. I have liked him every ever since seeing him speak in the End of Suburbia documentary. He makes this face while speaking with that that acerbic snarkiness he does so well. One thing to remember is that his dire forecast for the future is just part of his shtick . He is an old hippie and he figured out that he can make money writing about this shit. He probably took an acid trip too close to a bogus strip mall boulevard and then decided to write around it. That snowballed into being a social critic and critic of how we do modern industrialized global capitalism.
Lets hear your forecast for the future asshole!
😆
Stunning lack of understanding about energy. Renewables are plentiful and much cheaper than oil. The oil industry has been government subsidized by the federal government for 100 years.
12:03
Of course they can't!, that's why some become 'whistleblowers'.
In denial, in denial until the end...
Jim,
Hard to say which is more striking, your prescience or how bugshit things have gone.
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Hydrogen fuel cell Technology-!!! 😁👍✌
His anti stock forecst completely missed the FED created stock market bubble.
Ugh. This guy with a training in theater is a terrible representative for the peak oil story. He is good at drama but not good at the science, engineering, and economics that are at the heart of the probelm.
Just slow down! Find new ways to exist comfortably and sacrifice some comforts that aren't even good for us. We don't need grocery stores with 1000 products! We just need a few high quality ingredients and then as a community we can make what we like. We need to check our human privileges and take ourselves down a peg before a collapse teaches us. It's what separates us from animals. We can use our awareness to predict and change our surroundings. Let's not be so comfortable that we overlook our downfalls.
Switch to the hydrogen economy.
Unfortunately I and you are humans, not planets.
In hindsight this guy really missed...like Charlie Brown at that football...
You think?
Any ecological collapseniks / doomers here in ‘24?
I like Kunstler but he gets a lot of shit wrong :(
PUKE OIL BUNK....
bs
Here we go again. Since the first decade of the last century known reserves doubled each decade. We have at least, repeat at least ,another century of fossil fuels given current rates of growth. Sorry Paul Ehrlich, Club of Rome and like minded Twaddle Mongers, we're going to do just fine. I'm getting tired of hearing the sky is falling. We're here and we will get along just fine. Life goes on. From Malthus on the doom and gloom prophets have never been right. You're just a broken record.
We have doubled reserves, Source?
fool
Doubled our reserves? If you count every speculative, far flung tar sand blob of kerogen that is buried under a a mile of glacial ice and has an EROI of -50, maybe…
This man is pretty smart, however he needs to lose the porn star mustache.
Peak oil has been debunked, Kunstler is wrong, time has shown, he is a Malthusian and a pessimist, oil is now quite cheap and plentiful.
John Boles You should look up the Hirsch Report.
is oil infinite? is it self replenishing? no. is energy based on fossil fuel a good idea for the future? no. it has to peak. the argument is only when.
+Phil Jamieson No resource in the history of mankind has ever been self-replenishing. There will never be any 'crisis' because the price-system will simply make other resources more cost effective than oil at some point. Boles is right and anyone who finds Kunstler 'insightful' is a moron who doesn't understand economics.
+ceounicom what I know about economics is that add long as there's a profit to be made, the market will always try to make it. the thing is, we needed to cut emissions while they where still profitable, and that kind of sacrifice of capital is not allowed in current market conditions. in short, the market is reactionary, never pre-emptive.
Phil Jamieson
""the market is reactionary, never pre-emptive.""
You don't understand markets.
Prices reflect more than 'current day supply-demand'
They reflect the entirety of future supply and future demand. Oil prices aren't low right now merely because of a boom in supply. They're low because no one thinks demand growth in the near future is going to outpace that supply. And no one thinks there's going to be any long term threat to that supply, despite even potential war between Saudi-Arabia and Iran, despite global warming, despite anything. Markets are always pricing the future rather than the "now".
All people like Kunstler do is help provide validation for continued ignorance. His prognostications havent been endlessly wrong because of some mere 'timing' issues. He's always wrong because his basic premise is flawed, and he's always trying to project his contrived misconceptions ON reality, rather than try and better-understand the reality as it is.
has he ever gotten anything right? the guy's a joke.
Permian Post Mortem Fiat Flatline Foul Fracking Flatulence Final Fart!🦤💨