Will Blue Origin End SpaceX's Falcon 9?
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- Опубликовано: 15 ноя 2024
- I explain how Blue Origin will be able to compete against SpaceX... or not!
#SpaceX #starship #elonmusk #starbase
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Editing: John Young, Alex Potvin, Stefanie Schlang
Photography: Jordan Guidry, John Cargile, John Winkopp & Stefanie Schlang
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Script & Research: Nathan, Soren, Oskar Wrobel, Felix Schlang
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Host: Felix Schlang
Production: Stefanie & Felix Schlang
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The difference here is saying what New Glenn "Will do" versus what the Falcon 9 "Can do" the falcon 9 is a rocket that has flown and landed hundreds of times. New Glenn is hardly a real thing right now
You took the words right out of my mouth
No one will ever beat Elon
@@Space_nerd008 gawk gawk
Exactly my thoughts - New Glenn has to go through all the testing and failures yet that Falcon 9 already did years ago - they are assuming that NG will be faultless first time!! lol
Just like Kamala Harris, and her “plan” versus Donald Trump’s completed actions of what he’s shown as he “can” do
Will Blue Origin EVER make it to orbit?
lol prob not
They have plenty of money to throw at their problems, they’ll make it eventually
@@jakammor4449 If they keep at it...I've no doubt they'll make it to orbit. But to actually be a competitor to SpaceX means they'll have to fly dozens of times a year...and I really don't see that happening.
Will they ever launch, that's the question.
By 3076
Blue Origin: “Our new glen rocket has just put your falcon 9 out of business!”
SpaceX: “What are you talking about?….. Oh the Falcon 9 I remember that rocket. Didn’t we retire it from service 8 years ago?”
@@14rs2 what a bunch of SpaceX fanboi nerds
@@MaxStax88boeing fanboy.
@@devoof hahahahahahaha you fanboi nerds are too much, hahahahahaha. You Fannies are so scared of NG hahahahah and im loving it
@@MaxStax88 bro just go back to school. You sound like you're having an aneurysm
@@MaxStax88 if NG is a failure you better apologize Old Man 👴
How many New Glen rockets have you launched?
Answer: None
How many Falcon 9 rockets were launched?
Answer: 388
Many of the rockets multiple times, what was the record again? The same rocket 10x?
@@GundamReviver 25 I believe.
Not if you count the number of CGI rockets BO has launched... :D
@@GundamReviver it's something around 23
This comment got inaccurate really fast - it is 398 Launches this day! How fast SpaceX operates!
SpaceX's Falcon 9 will be ended by SpaceX's Starship, which is 100% reusable.
nope
starship is too big to replace falcon 9 its just like every light lift launch veical they cost more then falcon 9 just because you would get a 10million dollar flight for something smaller then falcon 9 whal with falcon 9 would cost 50 mill for something 10 times bigger but you dont need it
@@Tyrannosaurusstudios If you could make a new BUS that can be dispensed with the PEZ dispenser or a modified version for bulkier designs, Starship could be a gamechanger.
They complement each other and serve different missions. Routine launches, satellites probes et al, will continue to use the most economically solution available…Falcon 9.
@@Klaus293 Once Starship has reusable second stage it may be cheaper to launch than F9, because you need to cover just the consumables. Turnaround will be a more limiting factor, at least for a while - SpaceX will fly it with more lucrative payloads.
@@Tyrannosaurusstudios that is incorrect. The fuel that is used by falcon nine is much more expensive than the fuel used by starship. The launches would be around $2 million versus the falcon nine which would be more expensive for the fuel itself.
People keep forgetting that Falcon 9 scales up to Falcon Heavy.
Why do you say that?
Even know experts and enthusiast know that.
thats what the initial plan was then they realized it wasnt as easy as smacking two tanks on the sides and adding more engines
They didn’t add any engines. Each of the Falcon 9s on a Falcon Heavy still has 9 Merlin engines.
@@odysseusrex5908 theyre not falcon 9’s they are independent boosters thats what the design was initially but the engineering is very different because they had complications and just smacking 3 F9’s together was a good idea that ended up being too good to be true this is also been said in interviews by musk and explains the raised costs launching when u compare their internal launch costs for three F9 flights vs FHeavy
@@112food Falcon Heavy side boosters can and have been used as Falcon 9 cores though
That funny. I’ve heard that same threat over and over again to SpaceX for almost a decade now.
@@dempoy 🤣🤣🤣
Blue still needs to try to lift itself off the ground.
Rubber bands are the backup plan.
Was it built by Boeing then? lol
@@simonscofield8825 Just the engines and thrusters
They gave up on the hamsters?
@@bricefleckenstein9666 They couldn't get oxygen to the wheels.
@@assassinlexx1993 you SX fanboi nerds hahahahahaha what a bunch of fannies
New Glenn has flown? 😂
Someday! XD
@@SebastianWellsTL by that time spaceX will have already sent a starship to mars and bacj
No, he didn’t say that.
Yep. Amazon Prime is creating a cartoon where New Glenn flies.
@@spooders8424 Not if the FAA can stop them!
Maybe Bezo should just focus on getting to orbit first
Hmm. His Charlie and the Chocolate Space Factory Elevator does not go into orbit?
@@henkvandenbergh1301 His engines has made it to orbit twice now with the Vulcan.
He's likely going to get New Glenn into orbit next year sometime but that's only the FIRST of many steps that have to be completed before New Glenn can even begin to look like a competitor.
Right now RocketLabs is a much more credible competitor than BO.
wtf you think hes doing
@@PaleBlueDotCitizen blue origin will be on mars in November 24’ you SX fanboi nerds
@@MaxStax88 BO on Mars next month? And you call THEM fanbois?
Bezos isn't interested in Mars, HIS plan is to colonize space itself instead of moving to the bottom of another gravity well. Of course he's also trying to get a piece of every pie that NASA is offering which is distracting from his ultimate goal.
Blue Origin can have all the wet dreams about that but it will never happen. You need to build more than 1 rocket in a decade and we still haven't even seen 1. Falcon heavy is 3 falcon 9 rockets so I don't think blue odor has a chance
Blue Odor !!! That made me chuckle!!
Sue Oder
Space X sues too. 🙄 it’s crazy how ignorant people are. Blue will do cool things. spaceX does cool things. Y so much haaaaate
@@CapnCAAAAAVEMAN ngl I want all companies to succeed,
Pretty weak attempt there
The Falcon 9 seems to be the "right size" for the majority of missions right now. New Glenn won't change that.
@@flatbill2 i think the only people on the internet are a bunch of SX fanboi nerds because all the actual fans of space are actually doing something besides typing away in our moms basement like you SX fanboi nerds. Im typing away while building a rocket engine at the moment. Real people doing real things but SX fanbois lol, they are typing away like a bunch of nerds
@@MaxStax88man, do you realise how unhinged you sound?
@@MaxStax88that… sounded like a crazy person ngl
@@GundamReviver there all you sx fanboi nerds go again, typing away like little nerds. Im at work designing a new part for a rocket engine at the moment. Go be little sx fan boi nerds somewhere else
@@MaxStax88stop seeking validation bro. Who cares what rocket is what, all of them are good
I could be wrong, but last time I checked, they’ve still never even got anything in orbit. Maybe finish the first couple steps before you try to take down the king!
This is one of the dumbest video titles I’ve seen. Ridiculous statement, new Glenn is much larger and too big for many payloads that falcon can fly cheaper. Oh, and it hasn’t even freaking flown
He’s desperate and became a clickbaiting channel
so what contracts are there for starship? all I know about is Starlink and the HLS.
@@sereneriver196 Starship is in a lot of ways a technical demonstrator. If they can get the prices low enough and it reliable enough then the phrase "if you build it they will come" becomes quite prophetic. Most missions now are limited by 3 things. Cost to develop, cost to build and cost to launch. If they get enough lifting capacity cheaply it will actually allow larger engineering margins meaning it will have knock on affects lowering both of the other two.
Key there though is ENOUGH. IF they can get it price per kilo down near or below Falcon 9 well to say the least there will be interest.
What is funny is SpaceX is close to having Starship operational so soon they will have falcon 9 and Starship going
Falcon 9 is the workhorse of the space transport industry
exactly, it's like comparing a mini van to a bus. Sure, the bus will come in handy in certain situations. But the bus certainly isn't taking out the mini van market. They both have the same job essentially but the cost and carrying capacity is different. They both have a place.
@@viarnay so will new glenn my SX fan boi nerds
For now
@@brucelytle1144 sorry to tell you this but santi clause isn’t real and there will be other rocket companies transporting payloads into space. Sorry but its not going to just be SX like you SX nerd cultist think.
It is like hardware vs vaporware... By the time New Glen is operational SpaceX will have Starship....
New Glenn's payload includes lawfares
@@yummysatay
What?!
well u can replace the New Glenn with FAA, and u will be correct.
Facts
So far SpaceX is the only company flying so let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. Amazon hasn’t even made it to orbit… SpaceX just successfully launched and captured the Satrship booster, landing the Falcon rockets is somehow mundane old news.
SpaceX is not the only company flying. If you are just talking about flying, BlueOrigin is obviously also flying New Shepard and has been for years now. If you are talking orbit, then you've still got ULA and Rocketlab, as well as ArianeSpace in Europe.
Also, Amazon isn't BlueOrigin. Amazon isn't building any launch vehicles, but they have sent prototypes for their Kuiper satellites into orbit on a ULA AtlasV about a year ago, so yes they've been to orbit.
SpaceX is running circles around blue origin 👍🥳🎉
Look ....falcon 9 is most commercially successful rocket in the world .. I repeat falocn 9 not falcon heavy. Falcon 9 is not just reliable but also can be launched frequently most important thing is the payload configuration of falcon 9 is also serves the most of rocket well
There is more call for Falcon 9 than there is for Falcon Heavy, so no surprise there, but let's not forget that Falcon Heavy just launched Europa Clipper, something which no one thought they would be able to do because it was thought that SLS was necessary for the job. Too bad there wasn't an SLS ready and Falcon Heavy did the job for $150 million instead of SLS's $4.2 BILLION...
@chrisantoniou4366 SLS is the biggest robbery of the century on the taxpayer's perspective.
A useless, very expensive, non reliable rocket using a space shuttle level of technologies coming after years in late.
It's crazy to think that NASA didn't think about cancelling the project back then.
New Glen can't compete with Falcon 9! It is still more expensive in all categories than F9. There will be a project here and there, but for the most part the NG cost more to build, and operate.
I predict they will have some key logistical advantages and all other rocket builders will have a hard time catching up.
Their rate of production, I expect, to take off and the rocket scoring high in reliability.
Old Glenn will never match production or gain as many contracts as SpaceX, even if they successfully launched this very minute. Why do people keep predicting otherwise when there is zero evidence thus far??
@gary.richardson if you are talking about the New Glen rocket, I highly doubt that it will take off (no pun intended). The way they fabricate the body of their rocket is very time-consuming and expensive. Then, the problem with mass producing the BE-4 with all the plumbing and gadgets is proven to be a slow process and hasn't been truly tested yet. Can't see them catching SpaceX and falcon 9 in terms of cost, reliability, and reliability. I'd like to see them succeed, but they will need to find the market that fits their rocket. Trying to compete with Falcon is a losing battle IMHO.
@@Wes4Trump SpaceX can easily reduce launch prices to keep customers and stay profitable. Starlink is the cash cow for SpaceX, not its rockets .
Raptor 1 was mass of plumbing and it was improved, I bet BE-4 mk2 is already in the works.
We'll probably see starship deliver payload to orbit before new Glenn at this point.
That's happening pretty soon I can promise you that
This is a conversation to be had when newglenn is proven.
SpaceX, a decade or two ahead in development. They got to run a fair distance to catch up
As long as Blue Origin and the other rocket companies can only build two or three rockets per year, I’ll have to call BS on all these “will _________ replace Spacex?” videos, lol.
Ha Ha Ha, good one.
Hmm🤔...I'm trying to remember how space x's first flights went. 🤯💥
Ya but how fast was the turnaround because blue orgin had 1 mishap and its been 2 yrs since they've even tried space x went for broke with 4 launches pretty quickly oh jeff getting queasy about all that money with no results
@@bobhood4482 I agree. B.o. is the start of boom 💥 😆
@@baitken766 there will be no boom, because be4 are way more reliable than ole raptors ever thought about being. You SX fanbois will be crying so hard and i will be laughing so hard…..just wait till November lol, NG will shut you Fannies up. I get so tired of listening to you space x fanboi nerds hateing on every one else. Oh SX is the only company ever that can succeed anyone else cant ever do what #1 sx can 😂 what a joke, quit jacking off to the picture of elon please
Betteridge's law of headlines. If there is a question, it can always be answered with NO.
Falcon heavy does not fly that often, we will see what happens. If your building space stations, you need a large rocket.
And by the time bezos gets his rocket off the ground starship will be available 😂
@@GundamReviver The current configuration starship is not designed to deliver the same type of cargo, it does not have an open faring, design. Starship is designed to go to Mars or the moon, primarily, not to deliver space telescope into space. I won’t be surprised if the booter can deliver other things than starships, but that not planned currently.
@@kjetilhvalstrand1009 wouldn't be too hard to install a cargo door on the on-belly side of starship though wouldn't it? That part isn't rocket wizardry 😂
@@GundamReviver With starship you risk having lots of un-used cargo space, if you can’t fully fill it up, it can be costly. There is a right size for the job, bigger is not always better, this is why you have small rocket companies like rocket lab, able to compete in the same market.
@@kjetilhvalstrand1009 and there is where Starship enters to the conversation
At the start of the year I was wondering who was going to take the 2nd place spot after Space X, between the other big names of Boeing and Blue Origin. But now that doesn't matter as soon as Space X starts catching star ship, then it will be game over.
I know I’m late to this post, but they just caught Starship so it is in fact game over
90% of Falcon 9s business is it's own starlinks. It's like owning a pub and drinking all the beer yourself 🥂. That sounds like a solid business model 😉
The key part "Once it enters full operation"..😂
Even they can't figure that part yet!!!
Starship: Hello there
Like that Evan McGregor/Star Wars meme! 😜
Bezos hat sein Baby ja noch nicht in trockenen Tüchern und für Pläne ist es noch viel zu früh. Er muss erst einmal beweisen das er starten, Fracht heil in den Orbit bringen und auch wieder landen kann.
Amazon wasn't built in a day. Bezos knows the advantages to his approach.
@@gary.richardson Ja da hast Du absolut Recht. Aber wie lange bastelt Bezos schon und wieviel hat Elon bis jetzt erreicht? Ich habe Bezos schon lange im Blick und ich muss Dir ehrlich sagen, er macht alles Mögliche und Nichts davon richtig. Du kennst das Dilemma mit seiner riesigen Yacht? Schon der Stapellauf ging schief. Sein kleiner Raketenhüpfer ist doch auch eher ein Witz mit dem er Leute nicht einmal in den Orbit bringt. ;-)
@gary.richardson ULA wasn't built in a day either... hmmm
I honestly hope they make it to orbit, more private companies in orbit the better the race gets !
I think people are too quick to judge. We'll see how the first flight goes but it looks very promising
@@gordon1201 You are seeing SX fanbois comments thats why it looks as if everyone is hating on BO, but the simple truth is NG will launch it will make orbit, it will be successful. Im not entirely certain it will land but it will happen. The only people that dont like BO is SX Fannies. Because they only want SX to be successful no other company. And if there is another company actually threatening to compete and take some customers then SX fanbois will hate lol
@@MaxStax88 too bad BO failed you
@@Leerzej90 hahahahahahaha sx fan boi alert 🚨 alert hahahahahaha we got a little sx fanboi fannie nerd cult fan here hahahahahahaha. NG failed me really hahahahahaha NG is not scheduled for another 3 weeks hahahahahahahahaha how can it fail without going off yet you little sx fanboi fannie nerd 🤓 hahahaha. We will see who is laughing 🤣 hahahahaha im laughing now at you and will always laugh 🤣 cause you nerd cult are just like harley davidson motorcycle nerd cult fanbois hahahahajaha
After Tim Dodds interviewed Jeff Bezos my faith in New Glenn went up exponentially.
I’m hoping for great success with their first flight.
Finally some positivity! Thank you. We can root for more than just one rocket lol.
@@CapnCAAAAAVEMAN excitement ahead 😊👍🏻
Blue seem to be doing much better with Bezos more involved, both Jeff and Elon dream to colonise Mars and they will need each other’s help to make it happen,.. they will need to ship a lot of material up there.
@@jamier.6634 Jeff Bezos is not about colonizing Mars, Jeff's plan is to create space station communities.
Their dreams and plans are not really competitive, they are complementary. I think Elon recognizes that but Jeff is too worried about getting a share of the government subsidies. It's a shame, New Glenn isn't a bad plan, it's just that the difference in how the two companies develop their products seems to give SpaceX a massive advantage.
The odd thing is that if Starship is even close to as successful as Elon plans for it to be Jeff should be able to contract for Starships to be built that could allow him to put his own plans into action. Still it would be better for him to get NG working AND to make it fully reusable too.
New Glen finally launches.
SpaceX drops F9 price by 50%
Blue Origon goes bankrupt.
Exactly. Ppl are unaware that SpaceX main source of revenue is Starlink, which is still growing rapidly. They can reduce their rocket/launch prices and it won't hurt them financially.
Some real competition for SpaceX might be a good thing for reducing cost and making space travel affordable.
An industry with more players, people and resources, will unquestionably be a good thing for space exploration
There is plenty of opportunities for two “competing” companies. NG is more optimally sized than the competitor and has an assured large customer. So all the “wishful thinking” about failure is probably misplaced. Personally I find it interesting that a certain group is threatened by NG. Besides, the Chinese are also moving fast to complete directly with falcon. Whatever falcon can do, the Chinese will do for lower cost. The era of falcon exclusivity is ending soon due to multiple players. Besides, falcon will be around for a longer period than some might expect.
What is New Glenn’s assured large customer? They can’t even bid on national security contracts yet.
@@odysseusrex5908
Really
Competition is good. Sure there’s room for both.
Competition is good, but unfortunately for Blue Origin, they can't compete. I fully expect they will manage to survive on government funding because the US government wants more than one launch provider (and I generally agree with the concept). However New Glen will not be competing with SpaceX as they are too far behind. By the time New Glen is commercially available its equivalent from SpaceX will be Starship which will be much cheaper to launch. Blue Origin is starting from scratch and trying to compete with Falcon 9 a seasoned rocket with enough existing business to allow the benefit of mass manufacturing / launches to make it much cheaper. Blue Origin needs to make 20 New Glens and launch each 10 times before they can get to the same price level as Falcon 9 by which time Starship will be running rings around them. They should have not tried to copy Falcon 9 and instead tried to go a few steps further and built a starship competitor.
Lol never
Well said, Felix!
not a chance.
"Will blue origin's new glenn end falcon 9"
Starship: Not before me!
By the time New Glenn is flying properly Starship is likely already out there as well, with 3x the mass to leo capacity and fully reusable.
...no, even if New Glenn succeeds exactly as planned they arnt even in the same payload weight class and is meant to compete with Starship
They are not supposed to.
A double decker bus has a high payload capacity but can't park in a parking garage, pass through many tunnels, or pass under many bridges and over passes.
Likewise, N we w Glenn will be able to do things that the current Space_x line up can't match.
Also, a 6 passenger van and an 8 passenger van are in the same class but offer different advantages.
You may carry 8 passengers but have less parking options available.
The new Armstrong rocket next 2030 or 2035 planing. New Armstrong with new starship Blue Origin come. We know for blue origin in future.
@@djidroneskathrinstudt1893 I recommend using Google Translate. I can't make out what you're on about.
The title doesnt mean a thing. Felix is space fan and not spacex fan only. You can admire someone work in the space industry. And that is spacex for felix. Still he doesnt judge other companies like other fans do and become die hard fan.
Two things that weren't mentioned here:
1) New Glenn has a much larger payload volume than Falcon 9/Heavy. So while the Glenn upper stage (and a new glenn launch in general) may be more expensive than a Falcon 9 launch, in some cases this may be offset by squeezing more satellites into one rideshare mission.
2) Reusable Glenn upper stage. While the initial Glenn upper stage will be expendable, Blue Origin has been doing some RnD on a reusable version. Presumably, this reusable upper stage would have less performance, especially for beyond LEO missions, making it more comparable to Falcon 9, but would also cost less. So with a reusable upper stage New Glenn may end up being a direct Falcon 9 competitor.
Anyone else notice that Blue Origin never gets the hate that SpaceX does? Food for thought.
BO is basically building a sail and steam ship while SpaceX is building an aircraft carrier.
Can we all just take a moment to appreciate the fact we're living in an age where two private companies are competing to deliver affordable orbital payload delivery?
Teenage 90s me is screaming "holy shit" in my head right now.
Cost would be consideration regarding F9 , the lancher most affected is the expendible Vulcan.
All these American rocket companies are working towards the same goal. I hope they all make groundbreaking discoveries and continue to accelerate and improve rocket technology.
Talk is cheap! And until it launches successfully, talk is all there is. That said, I hope New Glen does launch successfully. It would be cool to see.
I think you miss apoint on both - what will end Falcon 9 is Starship- Using that will be so much cheaper that it will eat ALL business even for small payloads. Heck, if you put a 3rd stage into a cargo starship as cargo - i.e. a satellite with another booster engine - you can likely do large satellite geosync insertions without refuelling.
A) will new glen make it to orbit
B) falcon heavy flys 6 missions max per year
C) starship will be cheaper than both of them so it will take all flights unless the companies rly wanna spend more to launch
New Glenn is still a powerpoint as far as I'm concerned.
I think we can start looking into the competition between F9 and Glenn when Glenn finally does at least a couple commercial launches.
Boeing thought the same thing. There two astronauts stuck in the international space station who think differently
NG was never intended to replace Falcon. Only to compete to help drive down costs.
Markets generally grow.
The marked differences between the several rockets and business plans, will just cause the new and existing customer base(s) to gravitate toward the systems best suited for their individual missions.
Who has ever said that New Glenn will end Falcon 9? I have never heard that from anyone. And I've argued with massive Elon/SpaceX haters.
He’s just clickbaiting
New Glenn may erode Vulcan market share more than Falcon 9. Mostly because many Amazon satellite launches should go to the lowest cost launch provider.
No. Blue Origin will never be competitive with SpaceX.
Blue Origins main rival is SpaceX. SpaceX doesn’t even know Blue Origin exists
Doubt it, but competing companies should make their systems much more better in the long run.
This should not always be a matter of one killing off the other, all space enthusiasts should be happy whenever any rocket makes it to space because that means good competition that gives birth to new ideas, not monopolies that strangle innovation.
Blue Origin need at least 2 to 3 decades to reach where SpaceX is right now.
Falcon 9 has flown hundreds of times. Falcon Heavy has probably flown 12 or 15 times. I don't think SpaceX has anything to fear.
One day the Glenn will fly, and people will act like it's an offence towards SpaceX Falcon's, even though it proved the concept 10 years earlier.
I mean. It's Internet, guys never cease to decept.
We need at least 3 good companies on top to compete with each other to ensure steady progress
New Glenn, if successful, would definitely hurt Falcons Heavy. But I doubt SpaceX cares. It’s a stopgap till Starship. Of course, starship is a LONG way away from commercial flights.
Commercial flights can begin as soon as Starship goes full orbital, even while expendable "landings" in the ocean.
They need to prove re-entry and landing safety for the public by doing ocean landings until RTLS are permitted. But those 5+ flights are going to be getting work done.
If New Glen is successful, ride share will have a whole new meaning with such a large fearing and a powerful upper stage the possibilities could be truly game changing. If they can build the productivity. SpaceX is pushing out rockets like disposable razors. It will be a hard act to follow
Well when that would be?
Tomorrow? When tomorrow? Day after tomorrow? ETC…
Neutron on one end and Glenn on the other could squeeze their commercial manifest, but they would still have starlink dod and dragon missions, at least until starship comes online for the former. One way or another f9 is probably peaking this year or the next in terms of cadence.
Starship super heavy first stage sitting over here saying holy my beer. I can lift a whole space station into orbit!
space x has nothing to worry about while space x will charge tens of millions for their falcon heavy while blue origin will charge hundreds of millions
Oh there's a new word that blue origin needs to learn: Orbit
I reckon it's gonna go boom
Price per kg to GTO:
Ariane 6-4 = $13400 (11.5t)
Falcon 9 reuse = $12700 (5.5t)
Falcon 9 expend = $12200 (8.3t)
Falcon Heavy reuse = $12,100 (8t)
Vulcan = $7200 (15.3t)
Falcon Heavy expend = $7200 (26.7t)
New Glenn = $5400 (13.6t)
SpaceX's main customer is themselves, and BO's primary customer will likely be themselves as well. Theyre not going to cut into each others shares much.
Blue Origin just copy Musk's idea.
New Glen and Falcon 9 have slightly different target costumers, F9 is most optimal for LEO missions, while NG would be better at higher orbits, or heavier LEO missions, comparatively
That's not mentioning Falcon Heavy, better for heavier payloads and higher orbits, as well as a proven track record with F9 as an extension
Space X is currently doing multiple launches per week, sometimes even per week. Over 60 this year alone so far. i dont think they have to worry about a rocket that currently doesnt exist
Let’s see how successful new glen is first. Good luck new glen, competition is a good thing.
No worries… they aren’t capable ofturning launches around fast enough to be competitive
"Once NG enters service following a 1st successful launch"!!! The word "once" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this statement.😅
First to market will dominate for quite some time so I think SpaceX won’t really be in trouble for awhile
New Glenn would only be a Falcon 9 killer if it had a reusable upper stage. NG can do 45 metric tons to LEO vs F9's 23 mt. NG could potentially sacrifice a large portion of its' LEO payload capability to support a reusable upper stage and still outperform F9. On the other hand, by the time Blue Origin gets around to building this, SpaceX will probably have an antimatter warp drive.
I don't see anybody ending the 'Ace of Space(X)' New Glenn is already tossed in the what have they done " bin.
This is exactly the reason Musk built the Falcon 9... he wants other companies to compete.
At first I would like to see it flying... After that we could start to speculate about it slowly......
New Glenn can only end F9 if it's cheaper than F9 (same for Starship). That seems unlikely, or we'd have heard how much it would cost by now. But it's probably cheaper than any other big rocket, and their boss's other company is responsible for most of the demand for non-SpaceX launches.
Hypotheticals are fun, meanwhile SpaceX is launching weekly out of Cape Canaveral.
I really want to see a falcon super heavy. Where there's 5 total cores. One in the middle and 4 surrounding it.
What a premise
Even if Blue does take flight, Spacex has been doing this for a while now so they already have their economics of scale working for them, while Blue has no scaling yet whatsoever
By the time New Glenn is fully functional every Falcon 9 will have fully paid for itself, earned huge profits, and become obsolete.
Starship could be deploying Starlink within a year. Shortly after that, another 6 months or so, and Starship will be certified for national security launches. Payload aggregators will be able to package payloads for hundreds of users.
All of this will greatly reduce the cost to orbit per unit of weight. New Glenn will surely be technically successful. But the question is will it be profitable if it only achieves what Falcon 9 does, at price competitive with Starship?
Why should something END something else?! SpaceX will be operating perfectly fine, and I hope that the other space companies do as well!
New Glenn will never be able to keep up with production the way SpaceX has.