My only counter to Muench's point about the offenses that Texas has played, Georgia had 20 points off turnovers, and had 23 points where they had field position within the their own 40 yard line. So it's not like Georgia was having to go the length of the field; in fact, they only had 289 yards, which is really below their standards.
I was about to comment this exact same thing. The defense is the last thing I’m worried about, they’re good for 2-3 takeaways a game and don’t give up many big plays - UGA only had a couple of big plays and one was a flea flicker. They’ve also been fantastic against running QBs so far this season, so with A&M losing Moss, Reed will probably be a bigger part of their running game and that plays into Texas’ favor as well
@@austinlawrence3071 my big worry is Quinn Ewers against that pass rush, and how he maneuvers the pocket. I worry about what happens when Quinn has to go through his progressions and throw strikes under pressure
@ That’s part of the worry for me but I’m much more worried about the pressure causing turnovers. The loss to UGA was pretty much entirely due to Quinn fumbling or throwing an interception under pressure.. I think so long as the defense isn’t put in compromising situations caused by turnovers, there aren’t a lot of games this team can lose. I think Quinn has to play like he did against Michigan at some point if we’re going to win the natty, but I think that’s only needed against maybe 3-4 teams - regardless the last unit I’m worried about is the defense
@@austinlawrence3071 that's what i meant by Ewers and the pressure. One of two things must happen: 1. Ewers extends plays like he did against Michigan or 2. Ewers becomes a surgeon in the pocket. He has to either escape pockets and use his arm talent to make plays and be a playmaker, or he's going to need to stand in the pocket, find throwing lanes, and deliver seeds. If he's not going to do either, then Texas will not win a title. At some point in every season, the title winning team had their QB make special plays. JJ McCarthy in the fourth quarter against Bama Stetson Bennett in the fourth against Ohio State Stetson Bennett against Bama in the fourth quarter Mac Jones basically the entire playoffs Joe Burrow, every game Trevor Lawrence was special in the playoffs Tua, special moments against Georgia This list goes on and on, but you need a special performance or quarter from your QB to win a title, I don't know/think Ewers can do that right now, hopefully I''m wrong
@ I completely agree. This Texas team is built just like the last four natty winners - very good QB that can flash great play, a physical OL, and a staunch defense. The only thing that could possibly trip the team up is Quinn, but man it really feels like if he hits that gear against A&M Saturday this team could take off.
We could have a repeat of the Alabama situation (Hurts & Tua) down the line here with Texas. We could very easily have Arch Manning playing in big games, PLAYOFF games. And man i am excited for that!!
A point that is memory holed by everyone… I think it’s bc people just see how high of a ceiling Georgia has, so they continue to believe (as do I) that they’d be favored against relatively any team rn. If “good” Georgia shows up, they’re a problem for anyone. But I agree with you…thing is, the UGA-Texas game & the Bama-UGA game have relatively nothing duplicative. Lol I can’t imagine either goes remotely the same way if they played again. Not saying the same teams couldn’t win, but the game would look completely different
20:50 that is not how vegas lines get made lol. The line is literally made on money flow. So if betters (money) start taking A&M to cover 5.5 more than Texas than the line moves to 5 and vice versa. The -110 or -115 line on the spread shows how the money is flowing. For example, suppose the line is A&M -5.5 (-110). As money flows more into A&M on that line they move it to -5.5(-115) before they move it to -5(-110). So anytime you see a line thats not -110 you can see which way the money is flowing based on -105, -115. The money is moving in the direction of -115, hence the lessor payout, and is on the cusp of switching a half point. There is no "vegas" makes the lines, it is simply suppy and demand just like any other market... stocks, bonds, crypto, corn, beanie babies etc.
Quinn normally doesn’t miss the easy throws. Usually, when you see the ball sailing on him it’s a clear indication he’s not 100%. When he’s banged up his fundamentals are bad. That said, I would still roll with an 80% Quinn if I needed to because he has a quick release and can manage a game well when he has too.
in the spirit of the josh conorly call out, i wish more people would talk about Jude bowry OT out of Boston college, in this class he's a dude with no buzz, he has about 14-15 starts on him in his career, But hes a GOOD Player, who is NFL ready when you watch him closely. if he had a little more steam on him stock wise... for me he's the top OT overall in this class. his punch isn't the strongest and he lets guys into his pads, theres room to get bigger but... Bill O brien and his staff has coached him as well as his teammate donovan ezeiruaku, extremely well. The eye est makes feel they can be elite players in this class.
😂😂😂 top OT in the class?? A guy who will go undrafted is your top OT in this class? He must be your family member cause nobody in America has heard of a Boston college offensive lineman
@@kahledalbert1210 Jack Borowsky and me are the only two people really hip to him, but watch him play and tell me he's not good and under the radar atm.. ruclips.net/video/L_xBlCn1_E4/видео.html
Todd why didn't you include Penn State v Tennessee in your hypothetical odds? Prob because Penn State would be favored or a 1 point dog and that doesn't align w his Tennesee love. That segment overall was mind numbing.....these guys do not understand how power ratings and point spreads work at all. Ole Miss being power rated that high is not surprising. Vegas doesn't blindly drop teams bc they lose. They use metrics and context to create the numbers
To explain this in terms McShay can understand, Mississippi has lost as a 15.5 point and 13 point favorite this year. That is why they aren't going to be in the playoff. The Jets and Bengals have been favored in the overwhelming majority of their games this year, but their records stink. Nobody is claiming there is some sort of injustice that they are going to miss the NFL playoffs because Vegas likes their rosters.
I wouldn’t want a cj stroud , everyone pretends he didn’t fall into the best situation in the nfl, he had an amazing oline and his wide outs bailed out cj on so many off target passes last year that was never going to be sustainable now the tape is out on cj and teams are realizing he takes forever to let go of the ball and stares down his receivers not to throw off db’s to play games but because he needs to stare them down in order to make an accurate throw ..cj has been just as bad as Richardson and Bryce this season , the last Two weeks Bryce has played better then cj has at any point this Season . Cj has always been Justin fields with some window dressing , he can’t read defenses , everything moves way to fast for him , and the second teams realized if they just blitz him and make him have to go through progressions quickly then he can’t be successful .
These guys are talking about how Fan Duel knows something. All you have to do is try a little research and learn ND is 9-2 or 8-2-1 against the spread.
These guy be doing cliff notes when it comes to the draft and just talk physical measurements! Last year shedeur out played everyone but Daniels , penix , and nix with a bad Oline I guarantee Shedeur pro career will match or be better than the best QB from last year draft . In the pros the burden will not be as heavy on him as college! He will have a run game and a better Oline
i'll comment about the sheduer sanders conversation, has he had the best tape of any QB in this class? ehhh.... cause objectively i'm don't love that narrative and i'm not trying to hate on Shedeur, its just when people overrate his film and i know for sure like it puts me on the other end of things. Cade Klubnik has certainly had a better season statistically, i think the film is just as good with him as shedeur if not better. Cam ward and Garrett Nussmeier are volatile. but having equally good years with arguably more talent and traits. i don't even wanna hate on shedeur everything good said about him is generally true, overinflating his stock is gonna screw an nfl team one way or another where, hes either gonna bust because the real is, he lacks a too of traits and skills, or hes gonna plateau an offense for a decade. like, thats the reality, hes not in that top 5 QB level, if he's his best version of himself for a decade, he'll be lucky if he ranks 8 to 12 on a consistent basis. thats what people are drafting. we need to be honest about it, outside the context of this class itself. the real question should be where will he rank in the top 32 in the world and if it's not perennially top 15 he's a reach in the top 5.
Kid if you think that can ward has better traits then sanders you really don’t know what you’re watching . First off , you’ve seen cam playing against the flat out worst competition of any elite qb in the country , it’s an absolute joke the talent level he’s played against . Cam also is playing behind a legit nfl loaded offensive line , do you know what he would look like behind Colorados line ? Cam has no pocket awareness whatsoever literally less then zero , he’s getting routes jumped on him in college against kids that aren’t going to even sniff an nfl practice squad . You understand that right ? He doesn’t have the accuracy to drop anything over anybodies shoulders to the outside it’s always a stop , catch the ball and run he’s never throwing someone open where they don’t continuously never need to break stride . Shauder does all this and is laughably more accurate , he’s the most accurate quarterback we’ve had in a decade and it’s not even remotely close . I don’t think you understand the level talent you have to have to be able to do the things he does behind his offense line , and Todd saying he holds the ball to long sometimes, not realizing that’s what you want , if you don’t see anything don’t even risk it and just eat the sack that’s not a bad thing , because on 99% of plays he’s getting the ball out in under 2 seconds , that’s literally Tua level of throwing with anticipation , because nobody has broke off their route in two seconds everyone about to break for seperation and that’s when he’s hitting his wideouts when they are breaking he’s throwing the balls into an area that nobody is yet knowing it’s where he’s going to give his guys the best chance to come down with it . These are the things that actually matter at the nfl level , not “oh you see cams drip with that side arm pass , he’s stunting on these guys “ yea cool he still stares at his wideout for 5 seconds before he lets the ball outta his hand and he threw it five behind him so his guy almost got his head taken off .
@@vinceventura4453 i tend to agree with everything literally everything you said. today cam ward still has better TD to int ratio, today Cam ward has a higher yardard per completion. For me Sheduer is very baker mayfield like, you would've said a lot of the same things you say about sheduer about him at the same career stage, right? both are tough, efficient, setting their own tone as leaders. i try to be fair objectively in like, i don't think he's a disaster throwing the ball, but at the end of the day i don't like shedeurs ability to escape pressure, and i don't love what pressure does to him. i believe he's a good player who doesn't move the needle on his own, where with Cam ward i have the same problems with him that you do. i think that if you keep the pocket fully clean he gouges you tho and his arm threatens a lil more of the field. which i will say in sheduers favor, i don't know what his arm strength really is for sure YET, i think i just worry that i'm limiting my range of threatening a defense with him both, in arm talent and athleticism.
USC n Clemson is a Playoff Game. UGA also blew out Texas as well.n please remind us all who is Penn State biggest win who is Indiana Biggest Win .. Does Indiana have Guys who are special. Penn State n Clemson comparable talent wise
Man McShay, I understand what you’re doing with these hypothetical spreads but you’re completely discounting the motivation behind a points spread for bookmakers in the first place. Their goal is to get even money betting on both sides, it’s NOT meant to be some sort of prediction of a game outcome the way you seem to think it is. Those values are influenced by a myriad of factors including public perception of which the SEC benefits from, whether right or wrong. I don’t even necessarily disagree with your points but at least acknowledge the fallacy in your arguments.
It's easy to see he's just reading box scores when talking about Texas' defensive numbers. Georgia had 30 points but that was due to short fields. They held them under 250 yards and they only had 1 drive over 50 yards.
![I.N "HALLUCINATION" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n5B5q1Hwt_U/mqdefault.jpg)
So many great individual matchups in this game that I’m looking forward to. Can’t wait.
My only counter to Muench's point about the offenses that Texas has played, Georgia had 20 points off turnovers, and had 23 points where they had field position within the their own 40 yard line. So it's not like Georgia was having to go the length of the field; in fact, they only had 289 yards, which is really below their standards.
I was about to comment this exact same thing. The defense is the last thing I’m worried about, they’re good for 2-3 takeaways a game and don’t give up many big plays - UGA only had a couple of big plays and one was a flea flicker. They’ve also been fantastic against running QBs so far this season, so with A&M losing Moss, Reed will probably be a bigger part of their running game and that plays into Texas’ favor as well
@@austinlawrence3071 my big worry is Quinn Ewers against that pass rush, and how he maneuvers the pocket. I worry about what happens when Quinn has to go through his progressions and throw strikes under pressure
@ That’s part of the worry for me but I’m much more worried about the pressure causing turnovers. The loss to UGA was pretty much entirely due to Quinn fumbling or throwing an interception under pressure.. I think so long as the defense isn’t put in compromising situations caused by turnovers, there aren’t a lot of games this team can lose. I think Quinn has to play like he did against Michigan at some point if we’re going to win the natty, but I think that’s only needed against maybe 3-4 teams - regardless the last unit I’m worried about is the defense
@@austinlawrence3071 that's what i meant by Ewers and the pressure. One of two things must happen:
1. Ewers extends plays like he did against Michigan
or
2. Ewers becomes a surgeon in the pocket.
He has to either escape pockets and use his arm talent to make plays and be a playmaker, or he's going to need to stand in the pocket, find throwing lanes, and deliver seeds. If he's not going to do either, then Texas will not win a title.
At some point in every season, the title winning team had their QB make special plays.
JJ McCarthy in the fourth quarter against Bama
Stetson Bennett in the fourth against Ohio State
Stetson Bennett against Bama in the fourth quarter
Mac Jones basically the entire playoffs
Joe Burrow, every game
Trevor Lawrence was special in the playoffs
Tua, special moments against Georgia
This list goes on and on, but you need a special performance or quarter from your QB to win a title, I don't know/think Ewers can do that right now, hopefully I''m wrong
@ I completely agree. This Texas team is built just like the last four natty winners - very good QB that can flash great play, a physical OL, and a staunch defense. The only thing that could possibly trip the team up is Quinn, but man it really feels like if he hits that gear against A&M Saturday this team could take off.
We could have a repeat of the Alabama situation (Hurts & Tua) down the line here with Texas. We could very easily have Arch Manning playing in big games, PLAYOFF games. And man i am excited for that!!
Was thinking the same thing
Did we forget UGA against Texas defense only scored 30 because of short fields
A point that is memory holed by everyone… I think it’s bc people just see how high of a ceiling Georgia has, so they continue to believe (as do I) that they’d be favored against relatively any team rn. If “good” Georgia shows up, they’re a problem for anyone. But I agree with you…thing is, the UGA-Texas game & the Bama-UGA game have relatively nothing duplicative. Lol I can’t imagine either goes remotely the same way if they played again. Not saying the same teams couldn’t win, but the game would look completely different
Just take the top 12 teams in Fan Duel odds at the beginning of the season and put them in the playoffs. That's how smart Fan Duel is.
Yeah, or use the recuriting ranking and just skip the actual regular season games.
Quinn looked great 1st half of Kentucky, even had that beautiful ball to Helm post injury
20:50 that is not how vegas lines get made lol. The line is literally made on money flow. So if betters (money) start taking A&M to cover 5.5 more than Texas than the line moves to 5 and vice versa. The -110 or -115 line on the spread shows how the money is flowing. For example, suppose the line is A&M -5.5 (-110). As money flows more into A&M on that line they move it to -5.5(-115) before they move it to -5(-110). So anytime you see a line thats not -110 you can see which way the money is flowing based on -105, -115. The money is moving in the direction of -115, hence the lessor payout, and is on the cusp of switching a half point. There is no "vegas" makes the lines, it is simply suppy and demand just like any other market... stocks, bonds, crypto, corn, beanie babies etc.
You got a call in number for this show?
Quinn normally doesn’t miss the easy throws. Usually, when you see the ball sailing on him it’s a clear indication he’s not 100%. When he’s banged up his fundamentals are bad.
That said, I would still roll with an 80% Quinn if I needed to because he has a quick release and can manage a game well when he has too.
I don’t see Deion letting Shadeur go NY with that front office 😭
in the spirit of the josh conorly call out, i wish more people would talk about Jude bowry OT out of Boston college, in this class he's a dude with no buzz, he has about 14-15 starts on him in his career, But hes a GOOD Player, who is NFL ready when you watch him closely. if he had a little more steam on him stock wise... for me he's the top OT overall in this class. his punch isn't the strongest and he lets guys into his pads, theres room to get bigger but... Bill O brien and his staff has coached him as well as his teammate donovan ezeiruaku, extremely well. The eye est makes feel they can be elite players in this class.
😂😂😂 top OT in the class??
A guy who will go undrafted is your top OT in this class? He must be your family member cause nobody in America has heard of a Boston college offensive lineman
@@kahledalbert1210 Jack Borowsky and me are the only two people really hip to him, but watch him play and tell me he's not good and under the radar atm.. ruclips.net/video/L_xBlCn1_E4/видео.html
Todd why didn't you include Penn State v Tennessee in your hypothetical odds? Prob because Penn State would be favored or a 1 point dog and that doesn't align w his Tennesee love. That segment overall was mind numbing.....these guys do not understand how power ratings and point spreads work at all. Ole Miss being power rated that high is not surprising. Vegas doesn't blindly drop teams bc they lose. They use metrics and context to create the numbers
"Georgia hung 30 on texas" but averaged 4 yards per play and had one drive longer than 35 yards
Keep sleeping on Texas and their defense. They will surprise a lot of people this weekend.
Texas beat floridas 3rd string QB not lagway
Yeah, what does it matter that you lost 3 games, Vegas says you’d be favored so you’re in! Why even play the games?
To explain this in terms McShay can understand, Mississippi has lost as a 15.5 point and 13 point favorite this year. That is why they aren't going to be in the playoff. The Jets and Bengals have been favored in the overwhelming majority of their games this year, but their records stink. Nobody is claiming there is some sort of injustice that they are going to miss the NFL playoffs because Vegas likes their rosters.
I wouldn’t want a cj stroud , everyone pretends he didn’t fall into the best situation in the nfl, he had an amazing oline and his wide outs bailed out cj on so many off target passes last year that was never going to be sustainable now the tape is out on cj and teams are realizing he takes forever to let go of the ball and stares down his receivers not to throw off db’s to play games but because he needs to stare them down in order to make an accurate throw ..cj has been just as bad as Richardson and Bryce this season , the last
Two weeks Bryce has played better then cj has at any point this Season . Cj has always been Justin fields with some window dressing , he can’t read defenses , everything moves way to fast for him , and the second teams realized if they just blitz him and make him have to go through progressions quickly then he can’t be successful .
These guys are talking about how Fan Duel knows something. All you have to do is try a little research and learn ND is 9-2 or 8-2-1 against the spread.
These guy be doing cliff notes when it comes to the draft and just talk physical measurements! Last year shedeur out played everyone but Daniels , penix , and nix with a bad Oline I guarantee Shedeur pro career will match or be better than the best QB from last year draft . In the pros the burden will not be as heavy on him as college! He will have a run game and a better Oline
i'll comment about the sheduer sanders conversation, has he had the best tape of any QB in this class? ehhh.... cause objectively i'm don't love that narrative and i'm not trying to hate on Shedeur, its just when people overrate his film and i know for sure like it puts me on the other end of things. Cade Klubnik has certainly had a better season statistically, i think the film is just as good with him as shedeur if not better. Cam ward and Garrett Nussmeier are volatile. but having equally good years with arguably more talent and traits. i don't even wanna hate on shedeur everything good said about him is generally true, overinflating his stock is gonna screw an nfl team one way or another where, hes either gonna bust because the real is, he lacks a too of traits and skills, or hes gonna plateau an offense for a decade. like, thats the reality, hes not in that top 5 QB level, if he's his best version of himself for a decade, he'll be lucky if he ranks 8 to 12 on a consistent basis. thats what people are drafting. we need to be honest about it, outside the context of this class itself. the real question should be where will he rank in the top 32 in the world and if it's not perennially top 15 he's a reach in the top 5.
Kid if you think that can ward has better traits then sanders you really don’t know what you’re watching . First off , you’ve seen cam playing against the flat out worst competition of any elite qb in the country , it’s an absolute joke the talent level he’s played against . Cam also is playing behind a legit nfl loaded offensive line , do you know what he would look like behind Colorados line ? Cam has no pocket awareness whatsoever literally less then zero , he’s getting routes jumped on him in college against kids that aren’t going to even sniff an nfl practice squad . You understand that right ? He doesn’t have the accuracy to drop anything over anybodies shoulders to the outside it’s always a stop , catch the ball and run he’s never throwing someone open where they don’t continuously never need to break stride . Shauder does all this and is laughably more accurate , he’s the most accurate quarterback we’ve had in a decade and it’s not even remotely close . I don’t think you understand the level talent you have to have to be able to do the things he does behind his offense line , and Todd saying he holds the ball to long sometimes, not realizing that’s what you want , if you don’t see anything don’t even risk it and just eat the sack that’s not a bad thing , because on 99% of plays he’s getting the ball out in under 2 seconds , that’s literally Tua level of throwing with anticipation , because nobody has broke off their route in two seconds everyone about to break for seperation and that’s when he’s hitting his wideouts when they are breaking he’s throwing the balls into an area that nobody is yet knowing it’s where he’s going to give his guys the best chance to come down with it . These are the things that actually matter at the nfl level , not “oh you see cams drip with that side arm pass , he’s stunting on these guys “ yea cool he still stares at his wideout for 5 seconds before he lets the ball outta his hand and he threw it five behind him so his guy almost got his head taken off .
@@vinceventura4453 i tend to agree with everything literally everything you said. today cam ward still has better TD to int ratio, today Cam ward has a higher yardard per completion. For me Sheduer is very baker mayfield like, you would've said a lot of the same things you say about sheduer about him at the same career stage, right? both are tough, efficient, setting their own tone as leaders. i try to be fair objectively in like, i don't think he's a disaster throwing the ball, but at the end of the day i don't like shedeurs ability to escape pressure, and i don't love what pressure does to him. i believe he's a good player who doesn't move the needle on his own, where with Cam ward i have the same problems with him that you do. i think that if you keep the pocket fully clean he gouges you tho and his arm threatens a lil more of the field. which i will say in sheduers favor, i don't know what his arm strength really is for sure YET, i think i just worry that i'm limiting my range of threatening a defense with him both, in arm talent and athleticism.
Just tell us how much Fanduel pay you, ok?
USC n Clemson is a Playoff Game. UGA also blew out Texas as well.n please remind us all who is Penn State biggest win who is Indiana Biggest Win .. Does Indiana have Guys who are special. Penn State n Clemson comparable talent wise
Man McShay, I understand what you’re doing with these hypothetical spreads but you’re completely discounting the motivation behind a points spread for bookmakers in the first place. Their goal is to get even money betting on both sides, it’s NOT meant to be some sort of prediction of a game outcome the way you seem to think it is. Those values are influenced by a myriad of factors including public perception of which the SEC benefits from, whether right or wrong. I don’t even necessarily disagree with your points but at least acknowledge the fallacy in your arguments.
No more of that Danny guy please. Yall are better than that. And stugotz sucks too
Clemson is so overrated. PREACH!! Cade doesn’t play well in big games and his stats are inflated.
It's easy to see he's just reading box scores when talking about Texas' defensive numbers. Georgia had 30 points but that was due to short fields. They held them under 250 yards and they only had 1 drive over 50 yards.