I tweeted this the other day, but it's super important to understand: It took 2+ years and 200+ hot fires for the Rutherford engine to be qualified for flight. It took an additional year after that for Electron to fly for the first time. The first Archimedes hot fire will certainly be a major milestone, but it's just one of many in a development/qualification test campaign that will be a marathon, not a sprint.
Yep, it is definitely not just a matter of lighting it up once and then sticking it on a rocket! Interesting Stat re Rutherford, I should do some more research on the timelines of different test campaigns.
As a Kiwi, in regards to Peters comments in the interview you mentioned, I can say that it is a part of our national character to often manage expectations. But even more deeply ingrained in our psyche is a reluctance to talk ourselves up, which can throw people off when they are more used to bombastic claims or self aggrandisement. We would rather quietly do and show, hopefully punching above our weight-class while performing the task. Peter's an example of an assertive Kiwi, I wouldn't read too much into it.
I really undesrtand that attitude well. On the other hand tho, one may ask why then did they put such ambitious and (unrealistic) timelines in the first place.
I kinda wish they stopped giving exact time lines instead just ball parking it. People get so caught up in what time frame instead of just letting it happen.
It would be a miracle if they launch by Dec 2025. Peter Beck explained their schedule is a "green lit" schedule, meaning they have not incorporated any risk. When aerospace development schedules are put together, they usually include a margin for risk in the timeline known as Schedule Reserve, minimum 10-20%, but most go wayyy over this, 40-200% is easily possible. He explained he didn't want to include this because his engineers would just keep stacking risk and adding time at each step, he wanted to push for the maximum best case scenario which isn't possible, and so it was virtually guaranteed that there would be delays Peter knows this, but knowing they are "behind" their schedule even if it may be fictitious would push the team to go faster and ultimately improve the timeline. There will be many many many more delays to come on various components, parts, and reasons to come that's just part of aerospace development. My best bet, we're lucky to have a fully assembled Neutron on a pad by Dec 2025, and lucky to have a launch Q1 or Q2 2026.
It is a big deal for shareholders since further delays to the Archimedes engine, which is already 2 years late if we go with the Rocket Lab's (unrealistic) timelines, translate into further delays to Neutron.
@@michalbalaz9084 I own 25,000 shares. It's not a big deal. It's a rocket program. Their only competition is Space X. 2/3rds of their revenue comes from space systems. They are working on another 1 billion in back log.
@@michalbalaz9084 Do shareholders want a successful rocket, engine, and program? Let’s not forget the goal here; and it’s not to ‘perform’ on a quarterly basis. - Dave Huntsman
@@dphuntsman Shareholders want a successful company. Me personally, I want the successful company, I want Neutron and I want more spacecrafts based on Photon launched to the space to open it for everyone. I believe that measuring success from quarter to quarter is very harmful to deep tech companies changing the world such as Rocket Lab and that I am lucky that Sir Peter, unlike Elon Musk, took his space company public and enabled me to participate in this great space adventure. With that I understand why the Archimedes engine test is a big thing to shareholders. Rocket Lab is a business with limited resources and succeeding in the hot fire test campaign will increase Rocket Lab's chance of achieving its mission. If Rocket Lab gets this right, Rocket Lab and its shareholders will start building the future.
Well, careful. Without question they are leading the industry in small satellite launch; they’ve stepped over a lot of corporate rocket company bodies to get to fifty launches! So they are clearly leading in small launch Operations. To say blanket-wise that they are leading in ‘innovation’…..let’s not get ahead of ourselves, ok? Because looking at what the folks at Stokes and Firefly and Relativity are doing, in the innovation space, they are hardly laggards. And that’s not even considering certain Chinese companies………- Dave Huntsman
@@dphuntsman Well, be realistic, *all* satellites in the industry are shrinking in kg per v2 requirement so it doesn't really matter that they're king of small satellite launch. It was the logical starting point of a reliable launch company. All you have to do is wake up from your pathetic ego and you'll spare yourself public embarrassment. What a clown
@@dphuntsmanYou're delusional. RKLB is involved in the first operations for orbital manufacturing and even sent the first real solar sail into space. They're all over innovation so get over yourself. Your ego clearly isn't earned. Firefly is innovative??? 😂😂
I'm not investing any money I couldn't live without, and I'm in it for the long run, so lower stock prices are a definite plus for now. There's no indication that a slipped schedule will seriously hurt the company in a longer perspective, and the technology is by design not so cutting edge that a complete failure of the Neutron is a possibility to really worry about. Let them keep working on it, and I'll see in 2030 whether I should reassess my commitment.
I'm wondering if they are making a fancy video of the hot firing 🔥 & plan on releasing it on their investor day??-also they will do multiple hot firings & restarts which i don't think some people understand-its not like they fire up the engine once...
I can only repeat myself: If you are out there holding the stock and feeling "angst" or panic in situations like this just do not invest in space companies especially when they are developing new hardware. Things can go wrong and things will go wrong, things will get delayed, things will break, schedules will be missed, things will not work out as planned... even the allmighty SpaceX is not immune to this. And if you did not buy into the SPAC to begin with, you have not even come close to experience a real drop in this one. I am fully prepared for RKLB to drop down to 2$ or lower if real bad news hits at any time. Regarding the hotfire: It really does not matter at this point as the stock seems to be more of an overall market sentiment playball than anything else at the moment and only news about new contracts could push it higher.
I think that being completely transparent would be better than quiet, unless it's some surprise or good news coming. I respect sir Peter Beck and the whole company, but recently there has been some not too precise guidelines (for example if they know that clients are usually delayed they should guide for less than 20 launches and anything above would be nice surprise, the same with Neutron - just tell the world the rocket will be ready in 2026 or 2027, if it comes earlier that's great)
No; this is very literal rocket science; the rocket shouldn’t be ready before it’s ready, ok? And they don’t owe you daily reports just to make you feel better. There’s a reason Elon has kept SpaceX private instead of going public, ok? And putting up with unwarranted clamoring for constant handholding on things like this is one of the main reasons. - Dave Huntsman
I got your reasoning, but being the public company, they "owe us" a little bit more, than the private one. And there has just been an update on the progress on the engine, posted on X by sir Peter Beck himself, which is amazing!
Low cost basis with the buying opportunity earlier this year, it’s a rocket program, I feel like I just need to hide this stock under a rock for 3 years for it to grow.
I feel the company would have immediately announced it if a successful hotfire had happened. Hope those Raptor engineers are on the job, helping to achieve that hotfire. If they can land some more contracts on the Space Systems side, that would be helpful too.
@@WillGerar - Raptor - the newest rocket engine developed by SpaceX, which is supposed to be the most powerful rocket engine ever built. Rocket Lab was able to snag some of the engineers who designed and built the Raptor, and they're now working on Archimedes.
Imo something went wrong and the real question is what and how bad was it. I am getting incresingly sceptical about Neutron near term performance. I don't know, but what I am sure of is there will plenty of opportunities to buy the stock and that is ultimately great for me. The risk would probably be for competition to get in earlier or the project delaying forever
Personally, I’m more concerned about the $$$ spent on R & D. If that amount is dwindling, then I’m confident because Peter Beck is very methodical businessman. He wants to do things right from the get go.
A reckon rklb investors would do well just watching some of Warren Buffets videos. There seems to be far too much panic going around. Just DCA and chill man.
Love the channel but sometimes post like this just annoy me.. its the exact same as Vinces last vid also.. at the end of the day Rocketlab is a long term play, at least to 2023 if not 2035. We all know this.. I personally dont care if neutron doesnt launch until end 2026 or early 2027.. it is what it is. At the end of the day i have absolute confidence in the companys ability to execute and trust them 100% that any delays are for the right reason, LONG TERM.. i get you need to get videos out but please lets stop the neutron, where are the rocket test videos line.. Getting a bit cumbersome. Just my opinion. Love the channel overall tho overall 😊
I can’t say anything about the stock, since I’m not a markets guy; but….kept in mind that the entire rocket business of the company isn’t even 50% of the company, ok? Yet it seems to get 90% of the worry and attention- like with you. I do agree, however, that they also have other things they need to learn how to do besides build and fire an engine. This is again where its lead competitor- which is not Stokes, by the way (as much as I hope Stokes succeeds; I like their attitude and technology), but Firefly- is ‘ahead’ of them- since besides having had their competitor engine already in testing for quite some time- including a spectacular blow up!- they also have a lunar lander program that has forced them to work on landing issues, albeit in a slightly different context, for whenever they need it. - Dave Huntsman
Imagine, the ticomac reactor.... Its a donut shape... Imagine it the whole unit is wrapped like a SpaceShip type UFO Disk. 3d printed in in it cavity for mercury to run throught the donut shaped ridable device.. As the magnetized Mercury spins in ots cavity and creates a manetic feild , it will levitate. Then you just need a prupulsive force to move the levitating Disk unit forward. The spinning Dish on a stick circus trick can be done as a Disk UFO prupolsion.
Thank you for the video. Delays in the Archimedes engine development have caused Rocket Lab to miss out on onboarding to the NSSL Phase 2 Lane 1 this year and they have pushed the Neutron launch from 2024 to the 2nd half of 2025. The management team stated that the engine development is significantly behind when compared to the rest of Neutron development. I understand that the growing number of shareholders feel that it is time for the Archimedes team to either deliver the results or face the consequences.
@@daveginvesting For example the response of Sir Peter to the very first question during the Q1 2024 earnings call. He said that Archimedes engine was the primary driver for pushing the Neutron's timeline to 2025 - ruclips.net/user/liveza74eaG63aw?feature=shared&t=3126 I remember more of such comments by the management team, I may be able to link them to sources once I shall have more time.
![FNAF vs TF2 - Episode 2 [SFM]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/z5b3V2-VLb0/mqdefault.jpg)
I tweeted this the other day, but it's super important to understand:
It took 2+ years and 200+ hot fires for the Rutherford engine to be qualified for flight. It took an additional year after that for Electron to fly for the first time.
The first Archimedes hot fire will certainly be a major milestone, but it's just one of many in a development/qualification test campaign that will be a marathon, not a sprint.
Archimedes / Neutron will be designed human rated. This must be considered too.
@@bla_adasDisagree; should not enter the consideration whatsoever. Such talk only clouds the issue. - Dave Huntsman
Yep, it is definitely not just a matter of lighting it up once and then sticking it on a rocket! Interesting Stat re Rutherford, I should do some more research on the timelines of different test campaigns.
As a Kiwi, in regards to Peters comments in the interview you mentioned, I can say that it is a part of our national character to often manage expectations. But even more deeply ingrained in our psyche is a reluctance to talk ourselves up, which can throw people off when they are more used to bombastic claims or self aggrandisement. We would rather quietly do and show, hopefully punching above our weight-class while performing the task. Peter's an example of an assertive Kiwi, I wouldn't read too much into it.
I really undesrtand that attitude well. On the other hand tho, one may ask why then did they put such ambitious and (unrealistic) timelines in the first place.
I kinda wish they stopped giving exact time lines instead just ball parking it. People get so caught up in what time frame instead of just letting it happen.
Agreed.
Could be for the best.
It would be a miracle if they launch by Dec 2025. Peter Beck explained their schedule is a "green lit" schedule, meaning they have not incorporated any risk. When aerospace development schedules are put together, they usually include a margin for risk in the timeline known as Schedule Reserve, minimum 10-20%, but most go wayyy over this, 40-200% is easily possible. He explained he didn't want to include this because his engineers would just keep stacking risk and adding time at each step, he wanted to push for the maximum best case scenario which isn't possible, and so it was virtually guaranteed that there would be delays Peter knows this, but knowing they are "behind" their schedule even if it may be fictitious would push the team to go faster and ultimately improve the timeline. There will be many many many more delays to come on various components, parts, and reasons to come that's just part of aerospace development. My best bet, we're lucky to have a fully assembled Neutron on a pad by Dec 2025, and lucky to have a launch Q1 or Q2 2026.
Never in the history of calm down has anyone ever calmed down by being told to calm down…😂😂😂
Testing pics uploaded by PB
Saw that, bad timing as usual they shared news right after my video 😁
@daveginvesting haha. We'll see fire pretty soon! Lfg 🔥
@@daveginvestingkinda means you need to quickly (today) release another video correcting this and such.
Rocket Lab seeing this video - "And I took that personally"
They will fire it when it’s ready. Simple as that.
Less than 24 hours after Vince's 14 minute video about a hot fire, we have a 9 minute one. 😂😂. It's really not a big deal. You guys are killing me 😂
Concur. - Dave Huntsman
It is a big deal for shareholders since further delays to the Archimedes engine, which is already 2 years late if we go with the Rocket Lab's (unrealistic) timelines, translate into further delays to Neutron.
@@michalbalaz9084 I own 25,000 shares. It's not a big deal. It's a rocket program. Their only competition is Space X. 2/3rds of their revenue comes from space systems. They are working on another 1 billion in back log.
@@michalbalaz9084 Do shareholders want a successful rocket, engine, and program? Let’s not forget the goal here; and it’s not to ‘perform’ on a quarterly basis. - Dave Huntsman
@@dphuntsman Shareholders want a successful company. Me personally, I want the successful company, I want Neutron and I want more spacecrafts based on Photon launched to the space to open it for everyone. I believe that measuring success from quarter to quarter is very harmful to deep tech companies changing the world such as Rocket Lab and that I am lucky that Sir Peter, unlike Elon Musk, took his space company public and enabled me to participate in this great space adventure. With that I understand why the Archimedes engine test is a big thing to shareholders. Rocket Lab is a business with limited resources and succeeding in the hot fire test campaign will increase Rocket Lab's chance of achieving its mission. If Rocket Lab gets this right, Rocket Lab and its shareholders will start building the future.
Rocket Lab is already leading the space industry in innovation, cost & services alike. Doesn't matter when they hotfire archimedes really.
Well, careful. Without question they are leading the industry in small satellite launch; they’ve stepped over a lot of corporate rocket company bodies to get to fifty launches! So they are clearly leading in small launch Operations. To say blanket-wise that they are leading in ‘innovation’…..let’s not get ahead of ourselves, ok? Because looking at what the folks at Stokes and Firefly and Relativity are doing, in the innovation space, they are hardly laggards. And that’s not even considering certain Chinese companies………- Dave Huntsman
@@dphuntsman Well, be realistic, *all* satellites in the industry are shrinking in kg per v2 requirement so it doesn't really matter that they're king of small satellite launch. It was the logical starting point of a reliable launch company. All you have to do is wake up from your pathetic ego and you'll spare yourself public embarrassment. What a clown
@@dphuntsmanYou're delusional. RKLB is involved in the first operations for orbital manufacturing and even sent the first real solar sail into space. They're all over innovation so get over yourself. Your ego clearly isn't earned. Firefly is innovative??? 😂😂
I'm not investing any money I couldn't live without, and I'm in it for the long run, so lower stock prices are a definite plus for now. There's no indication that a slipped schedule will seriously hurt the company in a longer perspective, and the technology is by design not so cutting edge that a complete failure of the Neutron is a possibility to really worry about. Let them keep working on it, and I'll see in 2030 whether I should reassess my commitment.
Good attitude.
I’m feeling good about RKLB. No selling for me.
Nothing to worry about
I'm wondering if they are making a fancy video of the hot firing 🔥 & plan on releasing it on their investor day??-also they will do multiple hot firings & restarts which i don't think some people understand-its not like they fire up the engine once...
Great video Dave!
Thanks
I'm interested in buying more .
I can only repeat myself: If you are out there holding the stock and feeling "angst" or panic in situations like this just do not invest in space companies especially when they are developing new hardware. Things can go wrong and things will go wrong, things will get delayed, things will break, schedules will be missed, things will not work out as planned... even the allmighty SpaceX is not immune to this. And if you did not buy into the SPAC to begin with, you have not even come close to experience a real drop in this one. I am fully prepared for RKLB to drop down to 2$ or lower if real bad news hits at any time. Regarding the hotfire: It really does not matter at this point as the stock seems to be more of an overall market sentiment playball than anything else at the moment and only news about new contracts could push it higher.
I think that being completely transparent would be better than quiet, unless it's some surprise or good news coming. I respect sir Peter Beck and the whole company, but recently there has been some not too precise guidelines (for example if they know that clients are usually delayed they should guide for less than 20 launches and anything above would be nice surprise, the same with Neutron - just tell the world the rocket will be ready in 2026 or 2027, if it comes earlier that's great)
No; this is very literal rocket science; the rocket shouldn’t be ready before it’s ready, ok? And they don’t owe you daily reports just to make you feel better. There’s a reason Elon has kept SpaceX private instead of going public, ok? And putting up with unwarranted clamoring for constant handholding on things like this is one of the main reasons. - Dave Huntsman
I got your reasoning, but being the public company, they "owe us" a little bit more, than the private one. And there has just been an update on the progress on the engine, posted on X by sir Peter Beck himself, which is amazing!
Low cost basis with the buying opportunity earlier this year, it’s a rocket program, I feel like I just need to hide this stock under a rock for 3 years for it to grow.
Closer to the truth.
I feel the company would have immediately announced it if a successful hotfire had happened.
Hope those Raptor engineers are on the job, helping to achieve that hotfire.
If they can land some more contracts on the Space Systems side, that would be helpful too.
Could you explain that, like Ractors engineers?
@@WillGerar - Raptor - the newest rocket engine developed by SpaceX, which is supposed to be the most powerful rocket engine ever built. Rocket Lab was able to snag some of the engineers who designed and built the Raptor, and they're now working on Archimedes.
I'm still confident we will see a Neutron launch mid 2025.
Hope so! I am cautiously optimistic.
Imo something went wrong and the real question is what and how bad was it. I am getting incresingly sceptical about Neutron near term performance. I don't know, but what I am sure of is there will plenty of opportunities to buy the stock and that is ultimately great for me.
The risk would probably be for competition to get in earlier or the project delaying forever
Does anyone know why press releases are not being published on Associated Press, Reuters, etc?
Personally, I’m more concerned about the $$$ spent on R & D. If that amount is dwindling, then I’m confident because Peter Beck is very methodical businessman. He wants to do things right from the get go.
A reckon rklb investors would do well just watching some of Warren Buffets videos. There seems to be far too much panic going around. Just DCA and chill man.
« You need to zoom out » - $20 to $4.50
Post Spac hype was real, I never bought at those prices. My cost av is about 4.5 FWIW.
6k🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤❤
Not a big deal. You want them to do it quick or do it right? RocketLab is known for not announcing things until they are ready.
Love the channel but sometimes post like this just annoy me.. its the exact same as Vinces last vid also.. at the end of the day Rocketlab is a long term play, at least to 2023 if not 2035. We all know this.. I personally dont care if neutron doesnt launch until end 2026 or early 2027.. it is what it is. At the end of the day i have absolute confidence in the companys ability to execute and trust them 100% that any delays are for the right reason, LONG TERM.. i get you need to get videos out but please lets stop the neutron, where are the rocket test videos line.. Getting a bit cumbersome. Just my opinion. Love the channel overall tho overall 😊
No engine yet and still need to learn how to land. I don’t think this stock will see significant gains for a long time.
You don't know anything about new Zealanders 😅
I can’t say anything about the stock, since I’m not a markets guy; but….kept in mind that the entire rocket business of the company isn’t even 50% of the company, ok? Yet it seems to get 90% of the worry and attention- like with you. I do agree, however, that they also have other things they need to learn how to do besides build and fire an engine. This is again where its lead competitor- which is not Stokes, by the way (as much as I hope Stokes succeeds; I like their attitude and technology), but Firefly- is ‘ahead’ of them- since besides having had their competitor engine already in testing for quite some time- including a spectacular blow up!- they also have a lunar lander program that has forced them to work on landing issues, albeit in a slightly different context, for whenever they need it. - Dave Huntsman
Imagine, the ticomac reactor.... Its a donut shape... Imagine it the whole unit is wrapped like a SpaceShip type UFO Disk. 3d printed in in it cavity for mercury to run throught the donut shaped ridable device..
As the magnetized Mercury spins in ots cavity and creates a manetic feild , it will levitate. Then you just need a prupulsive force to move the levitating Disk unit forward.
The spinning Dish on a stick circus trick can be done as a Disk UFO prupolsion.
Now that you All know that... Rocket Lab need to research other propulsion besides Chemical.
Thank you for the video. Delays in the Archimedes engine development have caused Rocket Lab to miss out on onboarding to the NSSL Phase 2 Lane 1 this year and they have pushed the Neutron launch from 2024 to the 2nd half of 2025. The management team stated that the engine development is significantly behind when compared to the rest of Neutron development. I understand that the growing number of shareholders feel that it is time for the Archimedes team to either deliver the results or face the consequences.
Where did they say engine dev is significantly behind the rest?
@@daveginvesting For example the response of Sir Peter to the very first question during the Q1 2024 earnings call. He said that Archimedes engine was the primary driver for pushing the Neutron's timeline to 2025 - ruclips.net/user/liveza74eaG63aw?feature=shared&t=3126
I remember more of such comments by the management team, I may be able to link them to sources once I shall have more time.