Saturday Horse Racing Tips 3* | Connor 500 25/08/2024
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- Опубликовано: 12 сен 2024
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Todays Connor 500: (total stake 14.4)
0.10 EW CANADIAN
2:25 Y - The Equator 11/1
3:35 Y - Seaking 12/1
4:10 Y - Two Tribes 10/1
5:20 Y - Paradias 9/1
4:05 Curragh - Barnavara 14/1
+
0.10 EW CANADIAN
2:25 Y - Spaceport 12/1
3:35 Y - Ziggy 14/1
4:10 Y - Albasheer 20/1
5:20 Y - Theme Park 16/1
4:05 Curragh - Exactly 14/1
+
4 x 0.25 EW DOUBLES
2:25 Y
TABLETALK 14/1
IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN 16/1
X
3:35 Y
FAIRBANKS 16/1
IRON LION 22/1
+
4 x 0.25 EW DOUBLES
4.10 Y
HARRYTHREE 20/1
JAHANGEER 22/1
X
5:20 Y
KILLYBEG WARRIOR 18/1
ANDALEEP 20/1
Thanks all, have a lovely day,
Connor.
Todays Statistics:
TOTAL STAKE 14.4
TOTAL RETURN 6.3
TOTAL LOSS 8.1
August Statistics so far:
Will be updated by stats meeting on 31/08
Ah that’s a shame, we had two good chances at a big return today,
our first set of ew doubles were looking good, and then so was the first Canadian, but the final legs let us down.
Not an Ebor week to remember this year.
Appreciate everyone being here, hope you have a lovely evening and will see you tommorow for Sundays racing.
Connor.
Thanks Connor. Hope you have a lovely day. Fingers crossed for us!
Best of luck everyone!
🤞🏇🍀
A couple I’m trying today:
14:30 K Burru 7
15:35 Y Fairbanks 14
16:10 Y Apollo One 9
17:10 C French Company 9
17:20 Y Andaleep 20
Combinations (York):
15:35: Fairbanks 14, Chillingham 20
16:10: Apollo One 9, Rhythm N Hooves 33
17:20: Andaleep 20, Teumessias Fox 9
Best of luck everyone!
🤞🏇🍀
Good afternoon Susan, thanks a lot, just got back indoors from the first of today’s walks.
Thanks for sharing your bets, best of luck to us both 🤞
They look like great value to me, especially your ew doubles 🤞
I Susan. Thanks for your selections today. Good luck all.
@@philplanrock You’re welcome Phil. Hopefully they run well. All the best of luck. 🤞🏇🍀
cheers mate all the best for your selections today, great spot on the 16:05 race too!
ew canadian for today:
14:25 - The Equator SP
15:35 - Fairbanks SP
16:05 - Exactly 14/1
16:10 - Strike Red SP
17:20 - Killybegs Warrior 20/1
Good luck all
Afternoon mate cheers, that’s a very nice Canadian, solid value - best of luck
Thanks again for your selection, Connor 👍
I hope we will get some winners today 🤞
Good luck. Enjoy your weekend !
Thanks very much Siva, I’m really hoping for a winner in this second leg of the doubles 🤞 you too mate
Thank you very much Connor have a fantastic Saturday and the same to everybody🙏❤️🔥🙏
Afternoon Simon thanks mate, you too
Thanks Connor top man for all the hard work you put in you can't win all the time thanks Ken
Thanks very much Ken
Hoping the tabletalk win is a good sign 😉. Good luck Connor, and best wishes for the weekend.
Thanks mate I hope so, we’re due a win double up 🤞 you too
Thanks for your selections today Connor. Good luck everyone.
Thanks very much Phil, hope your days going well
Fingers and toes crossed today buddy 🤞🤞best of luck as always 🏴❤
Good morning Leigh, thanks a lot mate 🤞👍 hope you have a nice weekend
Thank you for your time and effort you put itnto these videos and knowledge aswell as time and time again when there are points to be added to our tally!.. your there with your best bets and we all enjoy the rollercoaster ride day after day when it's worth the effort. So grateful and I rind it great fun it's just small stakes for me but it's the fun and excitement that goes along with it.good luck 2day all
Thanks a lot Ashley, very kind of you- it’s great having you aboard.
I just hope I can repay all the viewers with a 5 out of 5 Canadian one day 😃 all the best mate
Enjoy yer weekend m8 cheers
Afternoon Keith thanks a lot mate, you too
Cheers m8
Afternoon Jagir thanks a lot mate, all the best today
Top man Conor, enjoy the weekend 👍
Thanks very much Adrian, you too 👍
Please don’t back horses without the favourite in the 4:05 Curragh”
Our value is coming from the fact the bookmakers are forced into set each way terms no matter how extreme the race structure is,
Whereas by betting on those side markets you’re taking a price that the bookmaker has complete control of
Case study on Barnavara in the 4:05 Curragh
(Timestamp 12:30pm)
This example is based on a single, and would be far higher EV if in multiple with another value horse.
Bookmaker win price = 14/1
Exchange win price = 38/1
EXPECTED VALUE = MINUS 63% EV
Bookmaker place price = 7/2
Exchange place price = 6/4
EXPECTED VALUE = PLUS 80% EV
0.37 + 1.8 = 2.17
For every 1 EW placed, an average return of 2.17
FINAL EXPECTED VALUE OF BET = + 8.5% EV
Would be much higher than +8.5% if in multis.
The price fluctuates however the value of a bet is always to be calculated at the moment the bet is placed.
Thanks as always Connor, we go again today! Good luck you & all on board the train! Could do with a little luck for sure! No favourite won in York yesterday they said on tv, interesting fact I thought! No bank holiday here we had our beginning of August, but enjoy your bank holiday! Come on Connor, some winners today would be lovely! 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Good afternoon Noreen, welcome aboard today 🚂 that’s very interesting about York- I’m really hoping on some big luck today 🤞
Brilliant Connor, good shouts bud
Let’s get it 💪🏼
Have a good day mate 💪🏼
Afternoon Jay thanks a lot mate, you too 👍
@@Connor500 🤝
Great effort conor rosa Ryan let us down for 4 up in ew yankee.. ah well grind on
Thanks Dave, close to a profit today
My picks
York only
1.50
*Royal Dubai* should not be underestimated at the odds. *ENFJAAR* may have more to give.
2.25
Addition of blinkers may eake out bit more from *THE EQUATOR*. * Too Bossy For Us, Master Builder, Tabletalk* all are capable of reacing the frame at value odds.
3.00
Odds on *AUDIENCE* repeat of last run could be more than enough here. I personally have doubt may not repeat if that ground softens. *Vafortino* maybe an alternative each way option at big odds. *Art Power* and *Breege* are overpriced and can be given place chances.
3.35
The one i side with is *QUEENSTOWN* who was runner up twice to Kyprios, *Yashin* not far behind. *Fairbanks* and *Oneforthegutter* could play a part in the finishing. *Onesmoothoperator* is also respected*
Thanks very much for sharing Jahn, the very best of luck 🤞 hope you have a nice weekend
4.10
*BILLYJOH* holds every chance of taking this with bit of luck in running along with *Dare To Hope* . *Summerghand* is never one to rule out. *Dark Thirty* can bounce back at this level.
4.45
*Mr Lightside* clearly stands out as the best on form. *TROPICAL STORM* has similar chance and was unlucky not to be closer last time. *Magnum Force* is definitely one to consider based on efforts shown and also as the one aiming much higher than this in the future.
5.20
A tough Handicap where many deserve mentioning.I narrow down to few and I side with *RATHGAR* to eake out just a bit more than last run. *Teumessias Fox* be my second value choice. *Andaleep, Theme Park, Ron O* others that could play apart towards the line. *Sir Busker* is respected, may pick through the field late on.. could it be too late?? *Cocklorum* is another.
@Connor500 just for bit of fun as, my analysis has not been all that good lately..😊
My pick 7
Enfjaar
Anshoda
The Equator
Royal Dress
Audience
Queenstown
Billyjoh
Cheers mate was disappointed with Asfoora yesterday should’ve followed the money in Bradsell! But off work until Monday going to get some beer for the football and racing today and just chill nothing too major small bets on yours today and let’s see what happens. All the best, take care and have a nice weekend.
Afternoon mate cheers, that sounds like a good day to me 👍
6 x price changes:
Will take 11/1 Spaceport
Will take 12/1 Tabletalk
Will take 11/1 Seaking
Will take 14/1 Fairbanks
Will take 20/1 Ironlion
Will take 12/1 Exactly
Yooo😂😂😂
Morning Ian 😃🥇 all the best today mate