Who Has The Dark Brotherhood Contract On Them In The Abandoned Shack? - Elder Scrolls Detective
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- Опубликовано: 16 ноя 2019
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Игры
Hope you're ready for some twists :)
Love your work
If I'm not? Do I stop watching?
I believe you to be correct about about the dragonborn having the contract against them.
What i would like to see from you in the future would be a video about known history about the Dark Brotherhood, where they are going, the role the dragonborn will play in the factions future, weather Astrid will be our ghost follower in the next TES and all other theories you have surrounding the Dark Brotherhood.
I think Astrid was right to frame us to try and save her family and faction,
i think it's slightly possible Astrid has a child,
i think Nazir would make a good leader,
Babette must have seen great things during her immortal life,
i think Veezara is still alive,
even tho he overreacted Cicero wasn't wrong,
Cicero possible did what he did because he knew what Astrid was planing for the dragonborn,
i wish for the falkreath sanctuary to be rebuilt,
i wish we could have saved Astrid,
i wish we could recruit people into the Dark Brotherhood.
The Dark Brotherhood is my favorite faction because of the people, their stories, the way the change toward you, the way they make you change and last but not least their history. I hope they return to us in TES 6 either in a better state or in a state where we make it stronger or even expand it wherever we will be.
On a later game i refused to finish the quest line so i could be with my whole family forever.
I enjoy you videos very much and wish a long career upon you.
P.S sorry for the extremely long comment that is riddled with unsubstantiated claims as well as sentimental emotion.
Are you still able to play the Dark Brotherhood Quests, after you killed Astrid?
This blew my mind multiple times
Astrid: “One person in this room has a contract on their head”
Dragonborn who has already sliced their way through 10 Dark Brotherhood assassins sent after them: “No Shit”
*drops a contract signed by Astrid*
*Astrid* Shit
Astrid "One person in this room has a contract on their head"
Dragonborn, who has already killed several DB assassins sent after him: "Yeah, actually I wanted to talk to you about that...."
Astrid: "One person in this room has a contract on their head."
My character: *Pulls out a sizable stack of paper* "More like about 50."
Lol!
Astrid: "Someone in this room has a contract on their head."
My Dragonborn, having murdered several assassins, wearing one of their sets: "But who could it be?! Ah, maybe it's in one of these notes!" Begins reading contracts. "No, nothing."
Astrid: "Is this a game to you?!"
Dragonborn : "Bitch, I eat dragons."
I just love how absurd it is. You’re telling me Astrid walked through my front door, snuck past my wife and kids, past my husky, past my armoured troll, past my daedric armour-wearing steward, past serana and inigo then proceeded to haul my 6’2 fat ass out the door along with my full 450 point inventory and my full dragon bone armour without waking anyone up.
My mans doing dark brotherhood at the end of the play through I see.
@@ausar7002 I usually do it first, just for the armor bonuses. Same for thieves, start em both.
I normally go for the mages college so I can cast transmute more effectively and make a ton of gold rings
Haha I know right
@@ausar7002 its usually easier when you know 90% of the locations and when you are certain you can kill everyone there, I always choose Muiri as my wife so I always need to do the extra quest she gives for which extreme sneak is needed
Long outdated but Lokir was the one who mentioned going to Hammerfell, the Dragonborn was NOT trying to cross the border there. Dialogue with Hadvar and Ralof both state that the Dragonborn was in fact crossing the border from Cyrodiil into Skyrim, and got caught up in the ambush.
When he said that the dragon born tried to go to hammerfell threw me. Hadvar literally says if you pick a nord that “you picked a bad time to return home”
Also commented the same thing, not sure how Camel confused that
Ulfric also asks why an outsider would want to fight for Skyrim if you’re a nord
@@scalycoronet5198I think it was confirmed that the nord (who im positive is the canonical dragonborn) hasn't lived in skyrim for a long time or at all. So he would technically be considered an outsider even though he is nord
The thing I hated most about the Dark Brotherhood questline was: For a "Secret" organization everyone and their Mother knew you were a member. I do hope the ES 6 addresses this issue and refrains others from knowing you are a Member of Assassins Guild in the future.
Psst. I know who you are. Hail Sithis!
To be fair, if you run around in their armor, it's kinda obvious.
@@Malkontent1003 I think the guards know even if you're not kitted up though. Kind of like how if you're a werewolf they'll say "I find your wolfish grin... unsettling" even if you're wearing a mask or helmet that completely covers the face. Town guards in Skyrim just have uncanny knowledge. But also sometimes know nothing at all, like they'll continue assuming you're the new member of the Companions who just fetches the mead even after you've finished the questline.
@@6236003 Oh, for sure. But then again, setting up conditions for stuff like that is tricky at times. As it stands, yeah, guards know a lot of things they have no reasonable way of knowing.
I mean, hell. They know exactly what every Daedric artefact is, and that's not really common knowledge, ya know.
On the other hand, if you managed to kill the Emperor in spite of his security detail, they'd probably just want to placate you, so they just say what you wanted them to hear.
Little known fact: Her line of "Well done" is actually just a reference to how she ends up at the end of the questline.
/s
Omg 😂
F
F
G
I don't know. I think it's just a bug, maybe they didn't programmed another death sound for Astrid.
For some reason, most of (weird) things i saw in game, i'm used to think of them as bugs.
I.E.: In any game, if u found a naked body besides the roads, normally i would think that he/she was killed and robbed, but if i'm playing skyrim, i check the inventory of the dead, and all the things are there, even the clothes.
"So, you're a mercenary? That's cool! Is it a part-time job?"
"No, it's Fultheim."
Don't.
I needed a terrible joke
I read that in his voice 😂
Arbynflowiter same
I think the quarantine is getting to you
When I had this happen to me the first time, I slept after becoming the Harbinger of The Companions. I thought some Companions cutscene was loading in for a finale of the questline, but then I woke up in the shack. Super creepy to think that Astrid was able to haul my unconscious body out of Jorrvaskr past all of the members of the Companions. I ended up mauling her as a werewolf.
Valid, actually. I cannot think of a more Companion-y reaction, tbh.
Her husband’s a werewolf, so she’s probably into that.
Based reaction lol
lmfao@@chene-aurelgaudreau1072
Me getting attacked by vampires as a vampire lord: Well, guess imma educate some people.
(Spell check thought I meant vampire lore)
Better question is where did Aventus get the required materials to perform the Black Sacrament
yea good question he cant just BUY it he has no money
@@philipkazanjian6259 even if you could who would sell that
@@FriedrichTheGreatest some black market
I can only assume he stole a dead body somehow from the Windhelm dungeon
I bet it was Calixo
The real contract was the friends we made along the way
I killed all of mine...
i don't know what this meme is or where it came from but i'm already tired of it
@@thatpersonineverycommentse2195 Well shit I guess no one can ever make that joke again
Subscribe to my channel and i'll subscribe back Well I’m tired of seeing channels with names like yours, they’re annoying as hell dude.
• Wanna See My Shot Glass Collection • STFU you damn self promoter
Going by the theory that you can get out of having a contract on your head by paying back a life, the only evidence of this is the case of killing the person who put the contract on you to begin with. This means that not only is it you that has the contract on your head, the person who wants you dead is also in that cabin as well.
Good point
In which case, one might assume you will *always* be right, as surely your character would know/recognize whoever held that kind of grudge? Like, “Oh, I know this asshole! This asshole hates me!” and then either settling the score while you have the chance or figuring if they’ll pick beef with *you* then they probably have beef with lots of other people too.
yeah that stupid fucking merc saw me kill all his friends and put one out for me
Pretty sure it's Astrid.
@@musicsheep9816 it is. in fact her last words are "well done"
I remember being in the 5th grade when this game came out. One of my classmates at my private Christian school described this whole scene to me, and very proudly told me that he just executed everyone. That was one of the first earthly memories I have of Skyrim. Good video, man!
I'm jealous- I wish I could've played this when I was a kid! I was already 28 when it came out 😭
🤣🤣🤣 that is hilarious!! At my school, none of the kids were allowed to play video games, or if they were, they and their parents all had to keep it massively covered up…like, we were genuinely indoctrinated to spy at other kids homes for any “troublesome” things, and even slumber party invites had strict dress and behavior codes…okay, well, that came out a lot darker than I intended, but yeah, there’s like not one thing about this game that wouldn’t have horrified 12-year-old me. Demons! Murder! Idolatry! Oh my! Thanks, IBLP, if I didn’t have morals, I’d sent the dark brotherhood after your entire organization. 😡
@@mason96575Wow… I’m almost 28 myself…
@@TaikaJamppa yea I get the sarcasm - ha ha. I'm talking about how gaming experiences are so extremely different when you're a kid vs when you're an adult. You actually get scared for the characters, worry for the characters, invested in the characters.
@@mason96575 Sarcasm? I am ACTUALLY almost 28!
Who else had the "big brain" moment and just killed all of them?
Yeah lol
The College of Winterhold wouldn't have taught me how to throw fireballs if they didn't want people incinerated lol
Astrid: "Well, well, aren't we the over-achiever? Three possibilities, three victims. Must have been one of them, right? So why take chances..."
Yes, but what was Your question?
@@sheep1ewe who else did is his question
I guarantee you're putting more thought into this than Bethseda did.
mercmech It. Just. Works.
That's the fans job
bethseda stumbling upon this video, ooohhh write that down
Just kill Astrid. Then you can free everyone. Tell a guard at the dragonbridge and get a quest to destroy the dark brotherhood.
@@netdrifter133 yeah, but that not as fun unless I'm playing as a wholesome Noble character
Better question: If you're like me your first contact with the Dark Brotherhood in most playthroughs is when a Brotherhood assassin tries to kill you.
1) Who wanted you dead?
2) Why would Astrid and the Brotherhood abandon the Contract to recruit you?
1) He answers that in the video
2) You're the dragonborn, everyone in skyrim tries to recruit you why wouldn't TDB?
@@inceleradicator2208 He didn't really point out who put the contract on us. But he mentions that the Dragonborn was trying to run into Hammerfell, but by the location of Helgen, it is equally likely that we tried to pass the border to Cyrodiil.
At the time the game takes place the Jarl of Falkreath hold, where Helgen lies, is a supporter of the Empire. And the road into Hammerfell goes by Falkreath, not Helgen. The road next to Helgen is the one into Cyrodiil. Why drive the prisoners through half the hold for the execution, when there are other places closer. The fact that Ulfric is in the carriage as well supports the idea towards the Cyrodiil border.
It is also unclear why the Dragonborn had the contract. What have we done before the beginning of the game that warrants someone wanting us dead.
Sure, in the end it's up to the player to make up their own backstory for their character, but there has to be something, because the random encounter can happen no matter who we are. A merchant or a thief are equal to a Stormcloak supporter or a Thalmor agent. It matters not.
@_peters6221what do you do when a dragon appears?
Not OP, but usually after the beginning when you see Alduin, you don't see any other dragons until you actually start the main quest. If you never start Dragon Rising, you 'll just never see any dragons.
@@Holytitmouse huh
Good to know
Thanks 👍🏻
Note that at some point in your playthrough, someone sends an assassin after you. So yes, you can have an active contract on you when you start this questline.
Astrid: “One person in this room has a contract on their head”
Dragonborn: One person in this shack is also a werewolf and extremely hungry.
@Jagd Panther Khajiit think otherwise...
@Jagd Panther ,
It's ironic that a Panther is calling catfolk disgusting... and wanting to kill them. #Shame
@Jagd Panther I'm not a furry, but you're a bigoted asshole.
Jagd Panther Facinating~ I’ve seen trolls pretend to be racist before... but to think you’ve gone the extra mile and done so against a race that doesn’t exist... masterful sir, I applaud you.
But we all know it’s those goddamn knife eared Elves that need to go. Literally the majority of antagonists in the series are fucking high elves.
@@ZhongliArchonofSwag He's not pretending to be racist against a fictional race; he is actually being an asshole to a fan group.
I always get a chuckle at how the mighty and mysterious dark brotherhood uses the courier services.
The couriers are the strongest faction in the game. Why else would they be so confident that they can travel around the dangerous Skyrim wilderness in just their underwear.
@@Sylvershade Because gameplay demands that.
@@Sylvershade not just the wilderness, they can show up in places they really shouldn't be able to get into, or really shouldn't want to go to.
Would be funny if someone actually got something delivered in Sovangarde 😅👌
@@T4RHUN "I've been looking for you, got something i'm supposed to deliver. Your hands only. Well, that's it, got to go. And by the way, how the hell did i get in here?"
Astrid could've said "Well done." in reference to the destroy the dark brotherhood quest line that happens after you kill her. So technically there were at least 2 people who we can confirm were wanted dead.
It's crazy how something so simple like this, can be broken down into a 40 minute video, this is why I love the elder scrolls.
The reason it can be broken down is because Bethesda put almost no thought into this quest. It's so blank and barren that it literally REQUIRES players to fill in the blanks. It's not "open-ended" for intrigue purposes. It's blank. There would be evidence of these characters in the world, families, homes, lived lives, if there was any real thought to it. We'd have to investigate, find out more about them, or even by happenstance, find out about them beforehand, even if it's from obscure references or from meeting them.
This quest is barren of anything, really. Just like 90% of quests in this game...
"Never invoke the Wrath of Sithis. To do so is to invoke the Wrath of Sithis."
Well said.
Yeah, Sithis reealy wound't like that.
@@ltloxa1159 Shits about to get real.
Lol just kill the ghost. Easy pesy
This floor is indeed made of floor.
"someone in this room has a contract" (looks at contract i pillaged off an assassin with my name clearly written on it) "yeah it's vasha"
💀💀💀
Astrid: "That person cannot leave this cabin alive."
Me: *pulls out contract* "D...R...A...G...O...N...B...O...R...N...That spells Vasha, right?"
Astrid: *stunned silence* "Uh...sure...I guess."
Me: *kills Vasha*
Astrid: "Are you are idiot?"
Me: "No, I'm a Nord. "
Sometimes, I just kill Astrid because I hate the bitch.
Yoooo I just realized that🤯🤯
@@jonathandoe1367
Difference being? ;)
My take was always that none of them actually had a contract on them. Astred just wanted to see if you were willing to be given a target by her and do the job because for a DB assassin that's one of the more important traits.
correct. you're not being tested on if you can kill. you are being tested if you can obey
Considering it has already been established that Astrid has removed herself from the core values of the DB, I just assumed she made it all up... She basically tested whether or not the Dragonborn would be loyal to her. If they were she would recruit them (possibly based on their skill or just because they found a person who did the black sacrament before even the DB could). I would personally assume she merely came across the victims through her own endeavors and perhaps deemed them good test subjects.
Astrid: Plans to kidnap you the next time you sleep
My Character: Laughs in Insomnia
I know right, my first play through i killed grelod at like level 12 and didn't end up getting brought to the shack until like level 30
@@roberttanner7793 who needs sleep when you can wait in front of the store for 10 hours
@kreeg i know, whenever i need to sell stuff, i'm not walking to my house while overencumbered to wait until day time.
W
I killed grelod at lv 5 and didn't sleep until lv 80
linkofthewild 2 I killed her a lvl 4 and didn’t get there till like lvl 41 or something like that didn’t do any quests just slaughtered my way though dragons, and he undead, and most of the storm cloak and the imperial camps.
Novice: Killing one of them
Adapt: Killing all of them
Master: Killing Astrid
Legendary: Killing Astrid then kill all of them anyway.
Ascended: Vampire's seduce spell on Astrid, get her to give you the key. Walk out of there. Kill nobody.
@@Rachano i like the way you think
No witnesses
@@theshribe or just pickpocket her?
James Parker I killed them all
Honestly, my first time doing that scene, I attacked Astrid. I was role-playing a kind of brutish barbarian stormcloak character, and it felt like what he would do.😂
I kinds thought Astrid said "good job" because she kinda knows the Nightmother wants this and feels guilt over her heretical practices and disregard for tradition. She seemed like she once was a true believer. With the fall of the dark brotherhood around her, her faith is shaken, and she becomes bitter and begins to go against everything she previously believed. She asks you to kill someone and you choose her. She accepts it as divine retribution, finally claiming her.
I always read it as her recognizing your cleverness. She says, "you don't leave until someone in this cabin dies." So gutting her and taking the key is technically following her instructions to the letter.
She just says good job bc she's a psycho murderer and appreciates that you were able to best her. She's acknowledging you for besting her.
I remember the first time I got picked up by the Dark Brotherhood. It took several in-game months for me to actually get picked up, because I never slept with my character, I always found waiting more convenient. However, when I finally decided to sleep in a bed, I was in a bed in Tel Mithryn. Astrid managed to sail all the way to Solstheim, travel through the ash wastes, get all the way to Tel Mithryn, take me in my sleep without Neloth (A guy who never sleeps) knowing, haul me all the way back to Skyrim, and carry me all the way to a shack deep in the treacherous swamps of Hjaalmarch.
Neloth would enjoy having the pest in his tower be taken away
To be fair, Neloth seems like the type of person to just let Astrid take you, he wouldn’t interfere just like he didn’t with the stones, he’d most likely just want to see what happens.
@@romeohio19 Yeah, pretty sure you are lol
@@romeohio19 survival mode
@@alexfolmer2204 Nah
Not gonna lie, first time I got the Mysterious Note and saw that hand print with the words "We know" sent chills down my spine.
In Oblivion, the first time I saw the "Your killing has been observed" line or however it goes, my friend and I freaked out thinking we had pissed off one of the gods and reset the game... It wasn't until a few weeks later that we found out it was the Dark Brotherhood... Lol
That was right after my friend decided to go on a killing spree in the Imperial City after duplicating Apotheosis many times, being chased throughout the entire city by guards, and shot with enough arrows to knock him through the terrain... We both agreed that it had meant that the gods were absolutely sick and tired of the massacre, so our reaction to the "observed" message made sense...
Fr when I first played I was like yo wtf this shit creepy what do they know 🤣
I honestly shit my Fucking pants because i thought the game knew something i did in real life and Todd Howard was coming for me.
dude same I was like oh SHIT what did I DO ?!
It got less scared when I realized how tiny the handprint was, it must be Babette’s!
You know... the contract having been on the Dragonborn all along is a pretty solid theory. I've had that assassin show up while I was on my way to Whiterun for the first time and always wondered about it. That being our reason for running to Hammerfell makes a lot more sense!
27:41 Isn't that what happened in the destruction of the Falkreath Sanctuary? Astrid did the black sacrament on herself and the Night Mother not only heard it, but accepted it and passed it on?
Yes, but it happened after Astrid played complete fool and betrayed brotherhood. I can imagine Night Mother being pissed off.
"There you are! Astrid's told me all about you. Heard she pulled the ole' "Choose your victim" gag with you. Ah, I love that one..." - Babette dialogue when you first meet her.
Yeah it was just a test to see if you're willing to kill if told so.
Her dialogue also suggests it was all just a test, because if you kill one, two or all three guests she'll say she gave you order to kill and you followed that order at which time you get invited to join the Brotherhood.
Lucan Rowley camels reading this realizing he wasted his time going crazy over this lmfao
I was about to say exactly this... dude thought way too deep into this quest
Not really. If someone in the shack did in fact have a contract out on them and the game says that it wasn't one of the guests, then it MUST have been you.
Maybe, but Astrid's exact words are not "someone in this room."
She says "If you turn around, you'll notice my guests...there's a contract out on one of them."
Them. It has to be one of the tied three.
Coincidentally, Astrid's last words "Well done.." and the fact that the storyline ends with her burned up or "well-done" is pretty funny.
But technically, you're a guest too
@@lynzylu5 Sure....but still not "one of them".
Also, from what I read on the wiki at least, it's still possible to encounter Assassins after having started the DB, so this doesn't really hold up. It's more likely that Astrid is just impressed the player killed a gal unprompted and wanted to test whether they'd kill anyone, like she said originally. Notions like "debts of life" and the like don't really exist anymore anyway, since the Night Mother's silent and Sithis' tenets aren't upholded.
Imagine your character turning around and screaming, “NO, YOU’RE GOING TO BE WELL DONE!!!”
@@boldbearings It could be. "Them" is referring to her "guests", which includes you. Sure, one could argue that it'd be more accurate to say "one of you" as in "one of the group you belong to (the guests)", but I don't think it's impossible that she could have meant "one of them" as being "one of the people who belong to that group (the guests)", which you just so happen to belong to.
I like your conclusion I’m going to go with that. She wanted us to take a life to release our contract. The only hiccup is how many play throughs I’ve done where I haven’t had that random encounter before killing Grelod. But maybe the assassin took an arrow to the knee on his way and retired to a cozy guard position.
I just recently had the assassin go at me right after the whiterun tower mission where you discover you are dragonborn.
With the Alternate Start - Live Another Life mod, I can't recall when was the last time I started a Skyrim playthrough where I even went through the vanilla opening, let alone get attacked by that DB assassin. Holy shit, this video is on point lmao.
It's a good theory but if you do the quest and use Clairvoyance, you will find Vasha is the correct choice to kill. The light points to him
Woah WHAT that's awesome
It actually points at all of them. When you kill Vasha and use it again, it redirects.
@@void1895 And it doesn't go to Vasha all the time. It's completely random.
@@Mere-Lachaiselongueit went to Vasha for me
@@Shadowhunter420okay, that proves that Vasha is one of the possible targets for the spell to point to. Thanks for giving us the info.
There hasn't been a listener for decades
Night mother: New listener, I have 264 contracts ready for you from the past few decades
Hello we have been trying to reach you about your cars extended warranty
That would have been kinda fun, ngl
I'm pretty sure most targets are already dead
DEAL
(One of the only radiants quests I actually don't mind that much)
"Hey new Listener, lemme whispah in ya ear"
Says The Night Mother
It gets even darker when you realize the body Aventus is using is most likely his dead mother
...Oh god.
I figured as much. Why was she not laid to rest in the Halls of death (or whatever the name was)?
@@bib4eto656 better question, how would she have already decayed to bones, because hall or no hall there's no way she's been dead long enough for him to gather her bones.
madestmadhatter Unless he literally skinned her corpse to the bone... and it’s actually quite disturbing now that I’m thinking about it.
Ali-Nazirr THIS ONLY GETS WORSE, WHY, WHY WOULD YOU DO THIS
You recruitment hypothesis actually makes a lot of sense when you consider that Astrid's reasoning was you owed a life for assassinating Grelod the Kind as the contract was meant for the Dark Brotherhood. Accepting you into the guild would make you a guild member and therefore, the life would no longer have been owed.
I really wish this quest was more involved and not just a five-minute affair. If this quest were in a game like Morrowind, for example, you would probably have to go to different cities to track down where these people are from, talk to their friends, and investigate their homes to learn more about them to figure out who is the most likely candidate, with no obvious choice available.
I would love if it was like that
Youre right, its probably typical rushed game development that is the source of every problem in skyrim. Even if they implemented something like that there is nothing stopping you from just killing one anyway.
At the same time, though, would that make sense from Astrid's POV? Letting the person she kidnapped run amok? I think it's pretty clear she's testing your ability to follow orders and your commitment to being an assassin. Why would she set you free before learning if she can trust you?
However, I think they should've had these characters somewhere in game, set as essential until this quest, where you could find out more about them via passive storytelling. It'd probably be heavy on the game to give the woman six kids, though.
I love how the dark brotherhood quest begins in Skyrim. Like I've gone out of my way to try and sleep on the furthest north side of Solstheim and still woke up in the abandoned shack. Astrid really went through the trouble of hulling my ass all the way from there by boat and about halfway across Skyrim just so she could have the most dramatic 'who's guilty' party ever.
Same!!! Went out of my way to get to the furthest map point with a bed
I started a new run the other day, and started the quest real quick and then decided what happens if I never sleep, I'm at level 41 and nothing, was hoping Astrid would take me another way, but no. I wish I did it though, the mount there was great for leveling up some magics
ikr, bethesda game making ftw
I didn't realize that it took sleep to get kidnapped. I spent freaking HOURS trying to figure it out, and it only occurred to me to check online AFTER I had built my entire house on Windstad manor. The abandoned house mocked me as I searched the marsh for nirnroots and swamp fungal pods, and eventually I just decided to sleep in a bed in my house for 1 hour and woke up in that situation. I found it funny knowing exactly where I was and how I could just walk 20 feet from the shack and end up back in my house
I wonder if she'll take you if you fall asleep on Solestiem.
Plot twist: the courier set the contract on you.
He's mad he has to travel to different sides of the map and dimension to just give you just one letter each time.
Next Courier İ See İs Dead
I wish i could tip him for bringing me my inheritance in Savangarde
@@inebriationconversation4526 Sovngarde? The courier brought my inheritance to Apocrypha! lol
@@Smirving why the fuck are your I s so long?
@@captainlonelygale692 I don't know what you are talIkİng about
I fought at least five assasins before the abandoned shack scene. I knew of the contract. Somehow, it still didn't click that I was the one. Ended up killing Astrid bc I didn't want to kill an innocent person and I knew for sure that she wasn't innocent, with or without a contract.
Genius
Astrid at the point of the shack has already broken several tenets, else the Oculatus wouldn't have the pass phrase to enter the Sanctuary. She has invoked the Wrath of Sithis.
That awkward moment when you only sleep because you learned that was how you started the dark brotherhood quest
z24CHz I didn’t even know I was supposed to sleep I just went “What happens when you sleep” because I’d never done it before in the game
yeah, unless you go with one of the many survival mods :D i did a gameplay with so many of them on i could die if i eat something funny or go for a swim in the wrong place :D
I got a letter about “see you next time you sleep” ... sooo I didn’t sleep and then forgot about about it. Then I woke up in the cabin!
@@RagingRougarou I never got that letter. I only got the "we know" letter. Are you lying?
@@Moribax85 yeah same.
If you use the spell "Clairvoyance", it point at the Khajiit. You're welcome.
Clairvoyance always points to a random target in this quest. You're welcome.
@@geistersehxr I tried multiple times and saves, it was always the khajiit.
Clairvoyance always leads me out of the place I’m exploring. It’s like it knows I just want to go back to bed.
@@majorattitude01 Clairvoyance shows you the path to your deepest desire 👀
Selahattin Alici That must be it. Boom. Mystery solved.
I always assumed that she meant you owed them a kill as in an enemy of the Brotherhood as opposed to a contract given to them. Vasha seemed like the logical choice.
Also clarvioance points to him
I always thought they all had targets because Astrid doesn’t seem ruthless enough to kidnap potentially three innocent people. I can’t think of any dark brotherhood member in Skyrim, other than Cicero, who would think about killing someone not related to a contract ignoring the single exception for spoiler reasons. All of them put too much effort and time into the brotherhood to be unprofessional about killing. I think she brought in three people who needed to die and killed the others herself after your test.
Dragonborn: "Hey. Cool headgear I can't get anywhere else in game... I'll just... Kill you all..."
Astrid: "had to be one of them, right?"
Dragonborn: "oh yeah the contract"
I feel attacked
Thats exactly me xD
I remember pickpocketing the sacks off of all of them. They still couldn't see anything lol.
Yep
Jarod_Insane lololol i always just wanted those stupid headwraps
"One person in this room has a contract on them"
Me: Drops the 107 contracts on me signed by Astrid
*Yes I've killed a lot of people and stolen a shit ton of things*
*Proceeds to kill self*
Lol
Oh my God im rolling on the floor laughing literally too funny
i always try to reverse-pick any Assassination Contracts back onto Astrid's inventory...of course, the game's code was never made this complex, but in my headcanon, my character whispers "by the way, your employees were, shall we say, Lacking, which is why you need new underlings now" as he slips the envelopes into her pocket...i wish that, for the few playthroughs that i Destroy the dark brotherhood, Astrid would read through these letters from herself and realize 'maybe this Dragonborn fellow is a much more dangerous threat than i first thought'...
Imagine how many sacrifices were made to put out those hits
I've watched this video so many times. It always pops up on my feed every few months, and I enjoy it thoroughly each time. Great for listening especially. Superb like your previous and works since.
You truly outdid yourself with this one. My vote for your single best video...
Picture me doing the head explosion hand gesture. Your theory actually makes perfect sense. You had the contact on you and your kill in the cabin was payment to Sithis so you could be recruited.
Astrid: "Someone in this room has a contract on their head."
Dragonborn: "It could be any one of us. It could be you, it could be me"
It couldn’t be those 3. Those are bags. Not contracts.
Like in that show HBO Oz any one of us could be undercover it could be me it could be you
@@xivliai975 It could even be ruclips.net/video/envhMuIjhcU/видео.html
@@ORIGINALFBI *Shotgun shoots* What he's the one with the contract, see. Any second now. See a contract, no that's just some pamphlet to a museum.
"it could even be'
*Bang*
I've always wanted to make a card with the Brotherhood hand and "We Know" on it's front, but "...that it's your birthday!" inside. XD
Oooh. You should. That would be the greatest birthday card ever.
Cringe
Nice
Etern4l Saiy4n how bout no you son of a fat sheep
Do it...I’ll buy one. No seriously.
I suspected that none of them had the contract on them, but until now I couldn't quite tell why. Thank you for the good explanation and the background story
Your correct about the contract it happened to me early in the game after recruiting Faendel as an ally after the fifth assassin I started investigating and went back to visit faendel and discovered Sven the love rival knew what I had done and hired the dark brotherhood.just so you know sven came down with something terminal.
Wait, I always thought that the Dragonborn was captured trying to cross INTO Skyrim. Not out of it. The way you have no ties in Skyrim before the start of the game as well as when you chose a Nord you are told it was a bad time to try to return to your homeland.
I came here to type this very comment, but somebody beat me to it
Yeah I thought that too.
No he says "at least you will DIE in your homeland, Kingsman"
@@hangingdinosaur1803 He says "You picked a bad time to come home to Skyrim, kinsman." [...] "I'm sorry. At least you'll die here, in your homeland."
Apparently you get captured nere dark water crossing with the stormcloak. Thats not near the border. Plus none of the border gates are guarded. Maybe they forgot some critical npc
I did this quest again recently and used the clairvoyance spell in the shack, it points at Vasha
This is essential information! Deserves more likes!
Woah, I have to try this!
@@Bluestonezee i gave you both likes
Its random who it points at. For me it pointed at the mercenary lol
Are you sure it doesn't just point at the one you are closest to? Isn't the spell meant to point at the path to the closest objective, not the "right" or "most important" one?
I usually keep a scroll of fire storm for this quest. Delivers well the message of how much i care for Astrid and her "orders". I use it without even turning to see the prisoners
Cicero could potentially have been the one to preform the black sacrament. He is favored of the Night Mother, even if she doesn’t speak straight to him (she allows the Jester he killed to laugh to him, something Cicero was extremely grateful for, after being trapped alone in his prior sanctuary for months)
"Truth is
The contract was rigged from the start."
SilvyTheUnfunnyMeme just completed my first new Vegas playthrough 3 days ago
@@ellisbarnett0292 epic
Very nice, sir. Very nice👌
From where your sitting, this may look like an 18 septum run of bad luck...
Ring-A-Ding-Ding, baby. 👍
Astrid basically admitting the Thieves' Guild is more structured than expert assassins.
Makes sense. Thieves Guild are businesspeople more than ritualistic killers.
The Thieves' Guild is more structured than a lot of organizations in Skyrim. What is your point?
yeah i mean astrid basically took a massive shit on everything the brotherhood stood for, so i'd say its fair to assume there isn't a whole lot of structure
My personal theory is the player is the one with the contract, since multiple assassins can be sent after you before the quest can begin. And since you join the brotherhood, the contract is technically complete
I wish you'd touched on the fact that if you use the clairvoyance spell it leads you strait to the Khajiit. That at least implies that's who you're supposed to kill. Admittedly, that spell doesn't always know what it's talking about, but it always points to the Khajiit.
Unless the Khajiit is dead, then it points, I believe to the woman, and then the nord. It's not pointing at the 'right' answer, it's just pointing at 'an answer'.
The first time I killed Grelod I slept in Blackreach, much rage was had that day
Oh just hearing that hurts...You poor soul
Jokes on them, they had to travel to blackreach
Why? I dont get it
Holy fuck, that's the most hilariously brutal thing I've read all day.
Future Shock It’s a pain to go that far underground if I am correct
I always thought the player character was trying to cross the border to get in, not out of Skyrim. No one's heard of you, no-one recognises you, even if you're a Nord. Idk, always just made more sense to me.
Once you step off the cart in Helgen as a Nord, Hadvar says "You picked a bad time to come home to Skyrim, kinsman"
I think someone in Hammerfell performed the black sacrament, and the Skyrim branch caught wind of it. They could easily have heard about us entering Skyrim, if one of the guards that escaped Helgen is a member (many guards are, as we all know)
@@andrewsad1 yeah 'hail sithis' isn't exactly a line that's just overlooked, especially when every single guard within ten feet of you says it
@Young Victor Well it kinda does alluding to the fact he wasnt originally in skyrim and he has now returned home.
@Young Victor no, he also states that you are coming home.
Haven't watched this yet but my guess is it's the dragonborn and/or Astrid on account of Astrid saying "well done" if you kill her as well as the fact that you can easily get a dark brotherhood contract on you using the power of crime.
In conjunction with the theory that there was a hit on the current standing emperor put out by an unknown agent, the Dragonborn could potentially be the only locatable decendant of the Septim bloodline, ergo "the rightful emperor", which would explain the incongruity between that particular scene and the near end of the Dark Brotherhood quest line where Astrid straight up tells you she assumed they would just kill you and stop there.
Whispers*
“I know who put the contract on us”
...
“It was... Nazeem”
H E S H A L L D I E ! ! !
Why couldnt you just get over to the cloud district?
Yeah i believe that, he was an instant object of hatred for most of us XD
@@claycollins9852 you are a terrible person who says terrible things XD #NazeemPTSD #CloudDistrictEnvy
@@claycollins9852 He needed the Dragonborn there so he could finally have his PUSSIEEEEEEE
Just use the Clairvoyance spell, it always points to the cat for me.
KorporateKotoo true.
Same
The cat is the one I spare. I love him too much. I love his attitude.
@@artsyhoodies .....
Wolfie Spark ⚡️ Wünderbar!
I’ve never encountered those dark brotherhood assassins. You learn something new every day!
28:15 They don't need to both find out the same way. Astrid says they find out. There's a few ways it could work. Firstly, since she already broke the rules the Night Mother is fine with killing her. Secondly, there's the idea that the Dark Brotherhood is beholden to all contracts done properly and it's just never been figured out that they have a glaring weakness. That could be the cause of the radiant quest targets: a buildup of unfulfilled orders. Thirdly, Sithis is and could know the future, so he approved it. With any of these, Astrid could just have heard someone put it out on her and proceeded to laugh her ass off and ignore it. All of them were bending or breaking the rules to some degree. So, it's quite possible that since they had no guidance they unilaterally agreed they don't take contracts against each other.
13:17 Of course Fultheim lives in the middle of nowhere, it's not like he could live Elseweyr
Nice
I applaud 👏👏
Ok sofia
Haaa...well played.
Not gonna lie. That was a good one
Alduin put out the contract on the dragonborn as a way to protect his future.
Alduin: ah yes! Big brain time
Instead of.. ya know.. just letting him get beheaded.
@@articuno8565 🤣 yeah my comment wasn't well thought out.
Well... that would go against a dragon's desire for a challenge
@@articuno8565 that's probably insurance
I know this is an old video but I just learned today that if you use the clairvoyance spell the path leads to Vasha.
To me, it was always pretty damn obvious that the "Which one of these people has a contract on them?" bit was just a smoke and mirrors trick to distract the PC from the much more pressing moral dilemma of "Should I really kill a defenseless person just because some woman in a mask told me I have to?"
As a bonus, the PC can pick out someone THEY think deserves to die, easing them into the idea of killing for Astrid. The victims were all chosen to reveal something about the PC's character. A PC who values bravery and honor might pick Fultheim for being a dishonest coward. One who thinks of themself as virtuous and lawful might kill Vasha in order to rid the world of a dangerous, unrepentent criminal. And one who is more selfishly inclined might go with Alea just because she's loud and obnoxious.
None of the prisoners have a contract on them, else it wouldn't be possible for them to make it out of the shack alive even if you don't kill Astrid. It's all just mind games.
I used the Wabbajack on one of them, they turned into a dremora and killed the other two, then Astrid jumped down and helped me kill it.
Vornalph fucking power move
Lord Sheogorath approves of you basically giving the middle finger to Sithis.
Big brain if the dremora killed Astrid
I like you sir
200 IQ play right there...
Given her reaction, I always assumed she was lying and none of them had a contract on them. Thats why she doesn't care who you pick, there is no circumstance in which she has to worry about you letting someone with a contract on them walk away. It also matches up with her reply that it doesn't matter and the only point was seeing if you were someone who would be willing to kill on command.
I assumed that they all had contracts on them and that's why it didn't matter who you killed or spared - if you kill them all, great; if you spare anyone, they just kill them after you leave.
@@InsomniacXIII I'm going through my first playthrough of the DB questline and it did seem like either none of them or all of them have a contract on them- Babette even confirms it when you talk to her after you go in for the first time.
It ultimately doesn't matter, though. None of them have legitimate contracts, and neither does anyone the Dark Brotherhood has killed before the Dragonborn becomes The Listener. She's just a killer doing it for money, not a follower of Sithis. It's _also_ why they so easily forgive your own contract once you join. They're illegitimate contracts.
I think its actually astrid since when you attack her she will say "well done"
@@ClockworkGearhead - Glad to see someone else recognize that coven as the abomination it is.
On the topic of the Dark Brotherhood contract against the player character. I don't know if I just had a mod when I saw it, but if you brought the contract to Astrid, there'd be a dialogue that basically said "Hey, why the fuck did you send assassins against me?" And she'd say something about that. I don't even know if that was vanilla dialogue, but I do remember it happening.
The contract is on Astrid. She already betrayed TDB before meeting you, breaking several rules laid down by sithis. If you kill her in the shack she actually says "well done"
Cicero is actually there to get things back in order, since they did lose their sanctuary. He didn't have much choice, since the skyrim one is the last active sanctuary. Astrid her betrayal is the reason the guild is in such a sorry state🤷
But how would Astrid know that a contract was on her? She couldn't have known by being attacked, otherwise she would've gone after Cicero.
@@Lethargy514 All contracts are done by the black sacrament, meaning it is like a prayer to the night mother. Who in turn is the wife of sithis. She knows that by breaking the 5 tenets, a contract will be made on her.
@@nickvanoort6403 Except Astrid wouldn't know of or recognise that contract. In the absence of the listener she's the one whose accepting and approving contracts. Why would she be talking about a contract she would never accept?
@@shadenox8164 because she did know there was a contract on her head. Wich is exactly what she says when you're in the shack. 1 person in de room has a contract out on them, her. Ofcourse she wouldn't give that contract to her guild members, but she doesn't need a listener to figure out who has contracts on their head😮 before the nightmother gets to the sanctuary they also complete contacts 😉
J.K. Rowling reveals that you, the reader, were... the contract all along.
Holy shit
Ali Baba J.K. Rowling reveals that you, the reader, were... gay all along
@@Dzemal505 and actually the bad guys all along
@@ElvenPrince and gay
Your not funny.
Can we take a minute to appreciate how good the voice acting for Aventus was? Especially for a kid.
Honestly I was listening and thinking like "darn this is a kid actor?" Like he was so expressive with his voice and sounded actually believable!
Astrid's voice acting was also quite good. Actually one of the reasons I really like this questline lol
@@cameroncortel8650 I agree.
Yeah I was actually thinking that when I first met him and in this video
I’ll do you one better- Cicero
Playing the dark brotherhood for the first time as a morally grey character. I normally don't RP, but after so many years I wanted a change. When you look at the dark brotherhood from a "family" POV, it's rather weird. Astrid has clearly picked you out for the organization. In a sense, you have a contract on you (And you can have other contracts on you too, of course but this is more family related. Like a cult wiggling it's way in). Astrid has chosen you and the reward is your membership. But I also do think she has her own contract on her head. Perhaps a marking from the mother herself lmao.
And all three guests might also have contracts for their own reasons. So if you kill one, some, or all five people in the shack, you'd be right.
So I had Live Another Life installed and had my Breton character start with being left for dead in a random location. My guy woke up by Kynesgrove beside a merchant’s caravan, went on to become Thane of Dawnstar, was attacked by the DB, killed them, discovered Riften’s skooma dealer, was on my way to kill them, got attacked AGAIN, and then became Thane of Riften.
Combined with Maven’s little altar, my headcanon for my character’s backstory was he was the only survivor of a Black-Briar hired raid on a merchant caravan, and Maven wanted him eliminated so nothing could be tied back to her. When he was spotted in Riften, she hired another one. When he returned and was named Thane and didn’t immediately recognize nor attack the Black Briars, she realized he didn’t know anything and so retracted the contract on his life. Of course, he kept the notes and went on to destroy the DB single handed. But that’s not her problem anymore.
Astrid: "hey you, you're finnaly awake..."
Tomoya Zahard no
Wake up, we're here. Why are you shaking? Are you ok? Wake up.
Finally*
@Delete Me Ulfric? The jarl of windhelm? You're the leader of the rebellion? But if they've captured you..oh god! Where are they taking us?
@@mohammadshibli8163 I don't know,but Sovngarde awaits
I love Australians because they upload videos in the middle of the night here so I have something to watch during night shifts. Thanks Camel!
It was 8:15 pm when this was uploaded so it still at night in Australia lol
Ahh he's Australian?!
THAT's why I like his voiceovers so much 😁🐊
@@ClipsInc. he did say his night-shift so that makes sense
Same here dude
Thanks Camel, very cool!
One flaw in the reasoning here, Astrid wouldn't care about fulfilling your life debt. She doesn't follow the tenants, so Sithis isn't her concern. Rather, it's to see if she could get you to kill for her, even if you had no real cause to kill the target. You had reason to kill Grelod. She was evil and deserved it. So it's hard to say if you'd make a good murderer or not. But these three, you don't have a reason. Other than being told to do so.
On the other hand, what if she knows that she is in the process of breaking all the tenents, having broken some before and will be breaking the others. Maybe she knew of how she tarnished the sanctuary and that a purification was needed. And with Cicero and the night mother on the way and a potential new recruit in front of her, she has the means to completely replace her group with a clean one that will follow the tenants.
This was one hell of a Professor Layton turn of events
Clouds. Clouds are in the air. There is air in the cabin. Nazeem goes to the cloud District. The contract was on Nazeem
Yes👍
Excellent hypothesis.
#Science
#detectiveskillz
@@partygoblynn #BigBrain
Like almost everyone who tried to solve this "riddle" you've made the fundamental mistake of claiming that Astrid said something ambigous like "there's a contract on someone in this cottage" what she however literally says is "If you turn around you'll notice my guests... there's a contract on one of them" so she clearly claims that one of the three has the contract on them.
The mistake that most people want to make when they try to solve this riddle is that it's either Astrid or the PC that have the contract on them because if you kill her she says "well done" while the PC is ofcourse the only character who can actually have a contract on them.
What however most people just ignore because they want to solve an unsolvable riddle is the simple fact that Astrid doesn't even have a listener anymore and she just uses the Brotherhood for her own gain. She doesn't take contracts from the Mother she just takes contracts that she believes makes them the most money. As Astrid herself says : It's not important who had a contract on them it's important that she told you to kill and you did without even verifying that the NightMother actually ordered the Kill in other words this was just a test wether you'd kill for her
@@SA_Caine Given how Astrid doesn't really care for the actual traditions I wouldn't be surprised if she actually just kidnapped random people and no one actually has a contract on them. But it's supposed to be open who actually, if at all, has a contract on them.
this argument beats the video
BuT Uh gUYs YOURE ASTRIDS GUEST TOOO THO DURHURBUR. Whet Iv Asstred be tricksy with wurds
@@pentarthesage7013 If you turn around you'll see my guests one of them. I can't see myself if I turn around. But since you've wrote this in a Meme way this isn't meant for you, but for anyone who would actually believe that to be a real reason
@@rafaelkresmar3998 I can always see myself in third person mode...
Oh my god now that is extremely interesting to me, I had never thought to kill her or rather not wanted to because although she's an assassin I find her quite innocent, but for her to be able to be killed *and* say that when she dies, that's really astonished me and reveals so many questions, although its impracticle because then you can't join the brotherhood. I'm also very glad to uncover this mystery as somebody who's been playing since release and never looked into this before.
When meeting babette in the sanctuary for the first time she says "I heard Astrid pulled the ol choose your victim gag, love it"
"Never dishonor the Night Mother." It's the #1 tenet and Astrid broke it on a regular basis. Nuff said.
But the tenets aren't upholded any more...
And even then, who would make a contract on her head? One of the other members? Highly doubted. Every other dark brotherhood member outside of Skyrim is dead or in hiding. And I dont think anyone outside of Skyrim would know that she disobeyed the night mother. And even if they know, I don't think they'd be able to hear about someone performing the black sacrament outside of Skyrim, since the night mother has no listener, they have to hear about the contracts by word of mouth.
So I'm pretty sure it's not her.
she broke all five throughout the questline
@@supasf But if breaking a Tenet invokes the Wrath of Sithis, would it not be possible that Sithis himself it not insulted if you break them? Would it not be possible that Sithis himself would tell the Nightmother that Astrid is to be killed? After all, Sithis is our lord in the Dark Brotherhood.
@@dragonqueenniisan4122 Yes but the Night Mother doesn't communicate with Astrid (or anyone else) so she wouldn't know.
She broke them all actually
She refused you a contract despite you being listener and therefore technically above her(listen to your higher ups)
She tells you to steal Cicero's journals(don't steal from a dark brother or sister)
She orders you to kill Cicero(do not kill a dark brother or sister)
And she has you climb into the night mothers coffin(respect death mama's tomb)
Maven definitely seems like the kind of person who would take a contract on Astrid for failure
I think Maven would eventually try to put one on you and then she will finally come to an end
For some common thug who failed? Absolutely. But Astrid is useful enough to keep around if she fails once.
I mean I ran into her in Riften after finishing the dark brotherhood quest line and she said something about her sending the dark brotherhood after me if I got on her bad side.
I feel like she might have be vengeful enough to do that, but she wouldn’t realistically do that.
Setting a contract on who effectively is at that point the highest ranking dark brotherhood member is probably just going to get the entire brotherhood on your bad side. And having a group of a dozen assassins pissed at you doesn’t sound like a good idea
@@killerkitten7534 Especially when said leader is some combination of: Dragonborn, Werewolf, Vampire Lord, Vampire Hunter, Arch-Mage, Harbinger of the Companions, Leader of the Thieves Guild, etc. :P
erm our character was crossing INTO Skyrim not out of it as Hadvar said: "oh right you were trying to cross the border into Skyrim weren't you". while our character having a hit out on them is a good theory there's some data i think either helps or hurts the case Astrid is very protective of her "dysfunctional family" so you killing that assassin likely would have pissed her off leading to her betrayal during the failed emperor assassination attempt but it also doesn't make sense as to why she'd even recruit you if she was mad at you or why no one even brought the member up ever.
I would argue in regards to the character names, they're probably more descriptors for the part in the quest. Fultheim can be roughly translated as 'Foul Home'. Alea in Italian (where her name originates) means 'Risk' or 'Hazard'.
WARNING! Spoilers Ahead:
If you follow the entire Dark Brotherhood chain to the end, you learn that Astrid betrayed the Brotherhood to the Penitus Oculatus in violation of Tenet Number 2. She also admits that they have stopped following the 5 tenets and have decided to do things their way violating Tenet number 1. She directs you to steal Ciceros Journal, which, although the player steals it, they do so under the instruction of a superior which violates Tenet number 4. She also directs you to later kill Cicero which violates Tenet number 5 (justification as per the previous violation).
All of these violations invoke the wrath of Sithis who is essentially the ultimate authority of the Dark Brotherhood, and thus able to put a contract on Astrid.
Since the player later becomes the listener, it can be postulated that Sithis, through his Daedric power has manipulated the fate of the player to put them in the position to carry out the contract on Astrid. The player is not in any violation of the tenets as they are not a true member yet.
Also, when the Penitus Oculatus destroys the sanctuary, Astrid willingly admits she has broken the tenets of the brotherhood, and has invoked the black sacrement on herself.
Right but also Sithis is not conscious
Jesse C I read on another investigation video, someone in the comments dig through the game files to see who the “friend” is that sends you into dungeons after you use a shout (the ones that start the misc quests “investigate the source of power within [dungeon]”). Turns out it’s the word wall itself that sends the letters.
@@qazxsw21000 Oh rad, any idea what the video was called?
Jesse C I don’t remember, but thinking about it, it may have been a “top 5” video or “top 10”. The channel is epicnate315
@@qazxsw21000 Oh boy, one of epicnates 400 top 5s that narrows it down haha. Ill see if i can find it, thanks bro.
I don't think it was to repay a kill so you can be recruited, Astrid doesn't give a damn about tradition. I reckon it was as simple as being a test of whether you were willing and (morally) able to kill a seemingly innocent person(s). Innocent in the sense that you have no idea why they'd be deserving of death given the extremely limited info other than their testimonies. I think Astrid would recruit an obedient killer regardless of whether they have a contract on their head.
And you already took one life: you killed Grelod.
I agree. I feel it was to test if we'd kill someone and follow orders.
I took it that all 3 had a contract on their heads but Astrid said only one did just to test our ability to follow orders
before they have the listener they cant know who is destined to die. the only way they learn about a dark ritual being performed is through rumours. so i think this test is a bs. she just collected 3 randos
She doesn’t care who you kill she just wants to see how you react to each of their responses when threatened with death. She’s just asking will you kill someone who begs for mercy, someone who people rely on, someone who threatens you with retaliation. You just need to be able to kill any of them. Technically the right answer is all three because none of them are leaving the cabin alive anyways.
Nice theory, but the Dragonborn isn't fleeing Skyrim in the intro, he's arriving. Even if you play as a Nord, Ulfric will ask why a foreigner wants to join the Stormcloaks, meaning the Dragonborn wasn't born in Skyrim. Plus, you have to explore Skyrim, and as you do, you discover more about the land and the people that inhabit it. You have no home town in Skyrim, because you're not from there. You're a stranger in these lands, that's why everything is new to the player/Dragonborn.
Maven still could have put the hit out on you, to tie up any loose ends you leave after completing Theives Guild and Riften quests, but I doubt it. Besides, the Sacrament is probably in the basement before you even start those quests.
It's more likely Astrid *was* the mark, but none of the Brotherhood are allowed to kill her due to the tenets, or even their familial bond, so she takes the chance that a stranger will do it, and subsequently be initiated into the Brotherhood.
If you use Clairvoyance (the spell used to direct the player to the current goal) it will point towards the Khajiit
Neat
Everything points at him. From his name to him admitting all his crimes to the fact that even magic says he is the one.
Feels almost a bit too easy.
Plus the spell is from the illusion school, so who knows which other illusion master has their hand in that.