I think the zag has some merit. I thought about that too when the bracket was first released. That being said Oregon's half of the bracket is a murderer's row. As Bill said, ASU is wildly better in the last 5 or so games of the season and they have the bye so they'll be relatively healthy and fresh, I think they're easily the most underrated team in the playoff (except maybe Boise State). If defense wins championships, Tennessee is going to be scary to play against. It seems like most experts are saying Texas wins out with their defense. I'm curious to see Boise State play some elite teams. Boise State's only loss was when they played Oregon at Autzen and nearly won if not for 2 special teams touchdowns (on a punt return and kickoff return) that barely helped Oregon win by a field goal. They did that against the number 1 team playing at home at one of the loudest stadiums in the country. Jeanty is going to be on the war path. Ohio State also almost beat Oregon at Autzen, losing only by 1 point due to Dan Lanning borderline cheating with 12 men on the field to waste time and a really weird/lucky onside kick that Oregon recovered by intentionally bouncing it off an Ohio State player. After that Michigan loss I think Chip Kelly makes some adjustments, he's not fool.
Oregon fan here. I get what Dan is saying but the other teams will also be more fresh early on so it kind of cancels out, no? The bye helps you a lot there but I'd still rather be on the easy side, let the other really good teams beat up on each other, and get whichever one is left at the end. That said, I think there will be upsets and it wont necessarily be Ohio State->Texas->Georgia for the ducks. Tennessee->ASU->SMU would be sooo chill
I think people don't understand how much playing that 4th game decreases your odds of winning the playoffs. Oregon with it's current path has a 20% chance of winning the natty, and PSU's are 8.9% on playing easier teams. Those odds would be different if we swapped their path, but Oregon’s odds with PSU's path would probably still be under 15%.
@williamtremaine750 Those odds are obviously bs. Any team would take Pen States path over playing the three best teams in a row. Oregon won and got by far the worst draw. .
@ running on the Mountain West feels distinctly different. We’ll see. But for the playoffs.. Skattebo does better pass protection, catches a better ball out of the backfield. If you’re just running the ball, sure . Let’s see how Jeanty does in the playoffs
@ Skattebo does pass protection better and catches a better ball out of the backfield. If we’re talking just running the ball… Jeanty, although running in the Mountain West is a little bit different. But we’re talking playoffs and think a more complete back is who I’d want in a backfield.
In the last 3 games - against previously ranked or ranked Pitt, South Carolina, and SMU - Clemson has trailed for a TOTAL of 88 seconds. That's an average of 29 seconds per 60 minute game (0.0081). I'm sorry if the great statistician isn't impressed by that Game Control.
Previously ranked Pitt without their previously healthy starting QB! What a marvel of controlled win that was against a team coming off of a Virginia loss. Hang the box score in the rafters.
Wow, Bill company man. Somehow BYU versus Colorado (two teams who tied for first place in BiG12) that should have Heisman award winning Travis Hunter and likely first pick of the NFL Draft Shedeur Sanders somehow isn’t one of the best bowl games to watch. Tool.
@ care to elaborate. Which part is weird. Does Bill not work for ESPN? Did BYU and Colorado not tie for 1st place along with ASU and ISU. Is Hunter not a Heisman candidate and Shedeur recognized as the likely first pick of the NFL Draft… which typically makes for must watch games. Not curious to you he avoided this game, which by the is on FOX. Love to hear your point of view. Care to share some reason or rationale? My points seem valid.
The only people interested in that game are BYU fans and Colorado fans. In reality, it’s a couple good players on mediocre teams in a mediocre conference. Who wants to watch that Garbage outside of those two teams fan bases?
@ what’s your our team out of curiosity? Last I checked, Colorado had the 9th most viewed regular season football games. That’s with no other BIG12 Team in the Top 25. It’s also with 5 of their games going up against ESPN’s SEC Saturday night window. You probably don’t understand the last two points but the Buffs could have garnered even more viewers, if they had played teams that drew a larger fan base and when you’re pitted against another quality game that is highly promoted it’s going to hurt your viewer numbers. That said, it worked vice versa for SEC Saturday window which is why ESPN bad mouthed Colorado for the most of the year, as they know FOX, NBC and CBS all purposely placed the Colorado game adjacent this window. That said, no? Actually a lot of people will watch this game, in fact it will be the most watched bowl game. So, anyway who’s your team?
Didn’t get 4 or 5 SEC teams in the playoffs? Maybe because they’re overrated, particularly by a for-profit media organization that has screwed the other conferences for years.
It’s hard to overrate having 7 of the 12 most talented teams, or winning 14 of the last 18 national championships. But don’t let facts bother you. Just keep repeating whatever mantra feels good for you.
The SEC is not living up to the standard of the Georgia's and Alabama as of the past this season. Without some officiating help, Georgia doesn't even survive Georgia tech at home this year!
@@cr-ko1fithey've been given way too much of a benefit of a doubt I'm just how effective those teams actually are! Yes he sees record against non-conference opponents has not looked very good this season! (Or last). Georgia and Alabama are playing so inconsistently! Without help from the officials, Georgia doesn't even beat Georgia tech at home this season! We have people telling us that the SEC has so many of the best teams... They have some really talented rosters on paper! Definitely have under performed thus far! The worst part of it is is the amount of whining that they're doing! Alabama getting embarrassed by Oklahoma and then throwing a fit about not making the playoffs?! Kirby Smart whining about road games where he has to get on a plane for an hour?! Etc etc etc.... South Carolina looks really good towards the second half of the season!
@@VivaciousOM That's my prediction. I think Penn State's offense has taken a year to gel under the new mad scientist OC but in that Big 10 title game they looked like they're firing on all cylinders and they're still healthy. They also have the easiest path or at least one of the easiest in the playoffs. I know they would have to get by Georgia but Georgia is on their backup QB, and nearly lost to Georgia Tech and with what Penn State's running backs Allen and Singleton did to Oregon's top 10 defense, I think Georgia can't quite hang with them. The Tennessee, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas, ASU, Oregon branch of the bracket is going to have some nasty games. That's a murderer's row with the way ASU is playing in the second half of the season and a bye to boot. I think Oregon comes out alive but yeesh.
Um... Do you really trust Georgia and Texas right now with their quarterback problems? Who has Texas play besides Georgia? .... and Georgia is also...sooo inconsistent this season! I watched a game in which Georgia tech would have beaten Georgia at home... Had the officials not been so generous to Georgia with the play calling! Impossible to call the national championship.... But I do it like Oregon's chances slightly better than anyone else's
Scoring margins can be dumb and highly misleading, particularly with the better teams -- note Oregon calling off the dogs in the 3rd quarter several times. Anyhow, having on spreadsheet guy doesn't make for a very interesting show. It's like talking football with a baseball nerd.
@@solidverbal- So there's a maximum margin? And can a 4th quarter score drop you below maximum margin? Is it margin at the end of the half or the 3rd? Does he not count scores in the 4th? How do you define garbage time? I would guess there are still significant problems with it. What if you have an outstanding defense and a team that beats everyone 17 to 6? What if you are a run-heavy team? I know that's one element, but I think the whole exercise gets a little pseudoscientific, and cargo cult-ish.
@@cacogenicist You could guess and ask questions or you could just use Google Dot Com, it's a you decision. He incorporates points per drive so it adjusts for tempo as well. If a team scores only 17 points but it's only on four drives, that's incredible. Here's a page dedicated to points per drive (vs FBS, minus garbage time) if you're interested: www.bcftoys.com/2024-ppd/ Bill's Garbage Time Definition: All first quarter plays count, no matter the score. Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 36 in the second quarter. Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 26 in the third quarter. Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 20 in the fourth quarter.
The Best teams aren't as good as normal is "wrong".... Normal is shifting.... There's going to be way more parody than ever going forward... And a 12 team playoff is much harder to win than a four team playoff... Crunchy numbers.... In a way, that's really kind of b*******. It's a starting point. Coming to hard conclusions that way is b*******!
Wow, Bill company man. Somehow BYU versus Colorado (two teams who tied for first place in BiG12) that should have Heisman award winning Travis Hunter and likely first pick of the NFL Draft Shedeur Sanders somehow isn’t one of the best bowl games to watch. Tool.
Another great episode. Cheers from Andorra!
Thanks!
Dan’s right. Fresher legs matter and if you lose a player (which happens end of season when you’re warn down, you’re more susceptible to injury).
Connelly used the number 38 three separate times as hyperbole, kind of a strange little habit that stood out to me
FPI is a big whiff in general, that ranking system sucks something awful
Good to know, Bill's is SP+
ESPN has always been a joke when they use thier"stats" for FPI ranking.
Same for their recruiting rankings
Bill's are SP+ as noted clearly in the episode
I think the zag has some merit. I thought about that too when the bracket was first released. That being said Oregon's half of the bracket is a murderer's row. As Bill said, ASU is wildly better in the last 5 or so games of the season and they have the bye so they'll be relatively healthy and fresh, I think they're easily the most underrated team in the playoff (except maybe Boise State). If defense wins championships, Tennessee is going to be scary to play against. It seems like most experts are saying Texas wins out with their defense.
I'm curious to see Boise State play some elite teams. Boise State's only loss was when they played Oregon at Autzen and nearly won if not for 2 special teams touchdowns (on a punt return and kickoff return) that barely helped Oregon win by a field goal. They did that against the number 1 team playing at home at one of the loudest stadiums in the country. Jeanty is going to be on the war path. Ohio State also almost beat Oregon at Autzen, losing only by 1 point due to Dan Lanning borderline cheating with 12 men on the field to waste time and a really weird/lucky onside kick that Oregon recovered by intentionally bouncing it off an Ohio State player. After that Michigan loss I think Chip Kelly makes some adjustments, he's not fool.
Man I hope ohio st is overlooking Tennessee as much as you guys are.
Oregon fan here. I get what Dan is saying but the other teams will also be more fresh early on so it kind of cancels out, no? The bye helps you a lot there but I'd still rather be on the easy side, let the other really good teams beat up on each other, and get whichever one is left at the end.
That said, I think there will be upsets and it wont necessarily be Ohio State->Texas->Georgia for the ducks. Tennessee->ASU->SMU would be sooo chill
I think people don't understand how much playing that 4th game decreases your odds of winning the playoffs. Oregon with it's current path has a 20% chance of winning the natty, and PSU's are 8.9% on playing easier teams. Those odds would be different if we swapped their path, but Oregon’s odds with PSU's path would probably still be under 15%.
@williamtremaine750 Those odds are obviously bs. Any team would take Pen States path over playing the three best teams in a row. Oregon won and got by far the worst draw. .
Would rather have Skattebo in the backfield over Jeanty.
Heartily.
Dude I LOVE Skattebo, LOVE him.
But no.
@ running on the Mountain West feels distinctly different. We’ll see. But for the playoffs.. Skattebo does better pass protection, catches a better ball out of the backfield. If you’re just running the ball, sure . Let’s see how Jeanty does in the playoffs
@ Skattebo does pass protection better and catches a better ball out of the backfield. If we’re talking just running the ball… Jeanty, although running in the Mountain West is a little bit different. But we’re talking playoffs and think a more complete back is who I’d want in a backfield.
In the last 3 games - against previously ranked or ranked Pitt, South Carolina, and SMU - Clemson has trailed for a TOTAL of 88 seconds. That's an average of 29 seconds per 60 minute game (0.0081). I'm sorry if the great statistician isn't impressed by that Game Control.
Previously ranked Pitt without their previously healthy starting QB! What a marvel of controlled win that was against a team coming off of a Virginia loss. Hang the box score in the rafters.
Dan, you can't be serious. You have to be saying this just to be contentious.
Oregon won, it is Ohio St. who should be scared, not Oregon. Ducks are happy to beat them again.
Homeeeerrrrrrrrrr
Wow, Bill company man. Somehow BYU versus Colorado (two teams who tied for first place in BiG12) that should have Heisman award winning Travis Hunter and likely first pick of the NFL Draft Shedeur Sanders somehow isn’t one of the best bowl games to watch. Tool.
What a weird, mean spirited take out of nowhere. Calm down.
@ care to elaborate. Which part is weird. Does Bill not work for ESPN? Did BYU and Colorado not tie for 1st place along with ASU and ISU. Is Hunter not a Heisman candidate and Shedeur recognized as the likely first pick of the NFL Draft… which typically makes for must watch games. Not curious to you he avoided this game, which by the is on FOX. Love to hear your point of view. Care to share some reason or rationale? My points seem valid.
The only people interested in that game are BYU fans and Colorado fans. In reality, it’s a couple good players on mediocre teams in a mediocre conference. Who wants to watch that Garbage outside of those two teams fan bases?
@ what’s your our team out of curiosity? Last I checked, Colorado had the 9th most viewed regular season football games. That’s with no other BIG12 Team in the Top 25. It’s also with 5 of their games going up against ESPN’s SEC Saturday night window. You probably don’t understand the last two points but the Buffs could have garnered even more viewers, if they had played teams that drew a larger fan base and when you’re pitted against another quality game that is highly promoted it’s going to hurt your viewer numbers. That said, it worked vice versa for SEC Saturday window which is why ESPN bad mouthed Colorado for the most of the year, as they know FOX, NBC and CBS all purposely placed the Colorado game adjacent this window. That said, no? Actually a lot of people will watch this game, in fact it will be the most watched bowl game. So, anyway who’s your team?
@@campbellcampbell9059 Oregon
"Strength of schedule" is highly flawed
Counterpoint: Everything and everyone is highly flawed.
Didn’t get 4 or 5 SEC teams in the playoffs? Maybe because they’re overrated, particularly by a for-profit media organization that has screwed the other conferences for years.
It’s hard to overrate having 7 of the 12 most talented teams, or winning 14 of the last 18 national championships. But don’t let facts bother you. Just keep repeating whatever mantra feels good for you.
The SEC is not living up to the standard of the Georgia's and Alabama as of the past this season. Without some officiating help, Georgia doesn't even survive Georgia tech at home this year!
@@cr-ko1fithey've been given way too much of a benefit of a doubt I'm just how effective those teams actually are! Yes he sees record against non-conference opponents has not looked very good this season! (Or last). Georgia and Alabama are playing so inconsistently! Without help from the officials, Georgia doesn't even beat Georgia tech at home this season! We have people telling us that the SEC has so many of the best teams... They have some really talented rosters on paper! Definitely have under performed thus far!
The worst part of it is is the amount of whining that they're doing! Alabama getting embarrassed by Oklahoma and then throwing a fit about not making the playoffs?! Kirby Smart whining about road games where he has to get on a plane for an hour?! Etc etc etc.... South Carolina looks really good towards the second half of the season!
@@cr-ko1fi The past is just that…the past. I’m talking about the present, with which ESPN struggles.
SP+ can’t factor culture, character, and scouting proficiency.
#WeAre
Penn State!
runner up!
🦆
@@cacogenicist I hope Penn State meets up with Oregon again.
@@VivaciousOM- So do I
@@VivaciousOM That's my prediction. I think Penn State's offense has taken a year to gel under the new mad scientist OC but in that Big 10 title game they looked like they're firing on all cylinders and they're still healthy. They also have the easiest path or at least one of the easiest in the playoffs. I know they would have to get by Georgia but Georgia is on their backup QB, and nearly lost to Georgia Tech and with what Penn State's running backs Allen and Singleton did to Oregon's top 10 defense, I think Georgia can't quite hang with them. The Tennessee, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas, ASU, Oregon branch of the bracket is going to have some nasty games. That's a murderer's row with the way ASU is playing in the second half of the season and a bye to boot. I think Oregon comes out alive but yeesh.
Um... Do you really trust Georgia and Texas right now with their quarterback problems? Who has Texas play besides Georgia? .... and Georgia is also...sooo inconsistent this season! I watched a game in which Georgia tech would have beaten Georgia at home... Had the officials not been so generous to Georgia with the play calling! Impossible to call the national championship.... But I do it like Oregon's chances slightly better than anyone else's
Nope!
Scoducks!
Scoring margins can be dumb and highly misleading, particularly with the better teams -- note Oregon calling off the dogs in the 3rd quarter several times.
Anyhow, having on spreadsheet guy doesn't make for a very interesting show. It's like talking football with a baseball nerd.
Lucky for you, his numbers are situation adjusted with garbage time not included!
@@solidverbal- So there's a maximum margin? And can a 4th quarter score drop you below maximum margin? Is it margin at the end of the half or the 3rd? Does he not count scores in the 4th? How do you define garbage time?
I would guess there are still significant problems with it. What if you have an outstanding defense and a team that beats everyone 17 to 6? What if you are a run-heavy team?
I know that's one element, but I think the whole exercise gets a little pseudoscientific, and cargo cult-ish.
@@cacogenicist You could guess and ask questions or you could just use Google Dot Com, it's a you decision. He incorporates points per drive so it adjusts for tempo as well. If a team scores only 17 points but it's only on four drives, that's incredible. Here's a page dedicated to points per drive (vs FBS, minus garbage time) if you're interested: www.bcftoys.com/2024-ppd/
Bill's Garbage Time Definition:
All first quarter plays count, no matter the score.
Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 36 in the second quarter.
Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 26 in the third quarter.
Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 20 in the fourth quarter.
Yeah I can't watch this guy! He's just trying to use statistics to back his own biases....I'll be back later for a different episode! Cheers.
The Best teams aren't as good as normal is "wrong".... Normal is shifting.... There's going to be way more parody than ever going forward... And a 12 team playoff is much harder to win than a four team playoff... Crunchy numbers.... In a way, that's really kind of b*******. It's a starting point. Coming to hard conclusions that way is b*******!
What a Homer . Thumbs down 👎🏻
cry more
Wow, Bill company man. Somehow BYU versus Colorado (two teams who tied for first place in BiG12) that should have Heisman award winning Travis Hunter and likely first pick of the NFL Draft Shedeur Sanders somehow isn’t one of the best bowl games to watch. Tool.