Bitcoin Power Law Predicts $1M Bitcoin By 2030?
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- Опубликовано: 2 окт 2024
- The Bitcoin Power Law Says Bitcoin can hit $1M By 2033...
Today we had the pleasure of interviewing Fred Kreguer to discuss this as well as:
🔥Whether the Bitcoin power law will break
🔥How will Bitcoin perform in a recession
🔥How the Bitcoin multiplier goes when there is no Bitcoin on exchanges
You can follow Fred on RUclips here:
/ @dotkruegervideos
You can also find Fred on Twitter here:
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All you need is to is buy bitcoin yourself and put it on a cold storage wallet like cold card by yourself
Couldn't agree more with you Bill, that's very sound advice!
The power law is the most realistic and it's math based on actual data. People who are thinking it goes to millions in a year or two are deluding themselves with their emotions.
If you believe bitcoin will be the foundation for the future financial system, then think 50 years plus. TCP/IP was invented in the 60's.
Spot on
Interesting view . I need to think more 🤔
The Power law model is just 4 years behind the s2f. 1 million in 2032
Sounds crazy to think of a sat in terms of money but in my business we charge for prints as low as 1/1000 or .001 of a US dollar and we bill hundreds of millions of dollars
20:41. This is where he contradicts himself. An S-curve, definitionally, is NOT a power law. A power law maintains its expression within the scope of its log base. An S-curve changes expression twice. Clearly not the same thing. He also said we are at the knee of the curve, which means we haven't even hit the hockey-stick part of the graph yet. Right in the middle of the first knee of an S-curve adoption, is a space called the "chasm." That's where adoption slows way down, as you run out of early adopters, just before you break into the early "mainstream" part of the adoption curve. Last cycle was clearly running into the chasm, that means the next fifteen years of adoption are going to be more extreme than the first fifteen, as that will be the mainstream adoption phase.
Is there a book or article you would recommend that talks about annual adoption growth rates before and after the chasm?
I think about this all the time. The years after the chasm should have more explosive adoption.
@@mbrasil4 I'm not sure I do. I've known about this stuff for many years, so I don't have the S-Curve adoption literature I worked through fresh in mind, but I believe Geoffrey Moore popularized the idea of the chasm in his book "Crossing the Chasm." Generally speaking through, there are three phases to an S-Curve: the early adopters, the mainstream, and the laggers. Each phase usually takes about the same time as the other two phases, so if the first phase takes 15 years, so will the second phase, and the third, for a total of 45 years, to complete the adoption process.
One of the problems with Fred's point of view is that he believes we've been in the "exponential" part of the adoption process for the past 15 years. That would be since the very beginning. That means he thinks we jumped over the early adoption phase altogether, and we went directly to mainstream adoption (the exponential part of the S-Curve). If that's what happened, then this is NOT an S-Curve adoption scenario, and it's unclear when the inflection point would be. Also, you're not entering mainstream adoption until 10-15% of the population has adopted the technology, which clearly isn't the case here. We're maybe just starting to scratch that sort of penetration, by "some" metrics.
If we assume a 15 year phase segmentation, then this adoption process would be more drawn out than usual, as most recent technology adoption S-Curves have had 10 year phase segmentations. With that being the case, crossing the chasm may take longer as well. Crossing the chasm takes anywhere from a few months to several years (it took several years in the case of cell phones). If we look at last cycle's activity, it's pretty clear we were operating within the chasm for that period. Assuming we're in an S-Curve adoption process, which may or may not actually be the case.
If we are following an S-Curve adoption process, "we ain't seen nut'n yet!" Because you go from 10-15% adoption to 85-90% adoption in the same period it took to get your first 10-15%. That is where things RAPIDLY evolve.
Now if we're not following an S-Curve adoption, which may actually be the case, as this isn't "just" a technological migration (like horses to automobiles). Who knows?
All things considered, I "think" this is probably an S-Curve adoption process, and if that's true, things are going to be EXCITING for the next 15 years.
Fred always comes up with stuff that nobody else does..
Like only 16 million people total in all types of ETFs
You need to adjust for inflation. 1 million $ in 2033 will be worth less than that.
no but you have time to learn more
Time stamp comment guy, where are you?
I’m 74 single Mom of 3. I opened a Fidelity FBTC today. I have a son who is low figure Millionaire… and I told him he was really dumb today. He doesn’t want to hear about Bitcoin .. 😂😂😂
Why not just perpetually borrow against your BTC. If Bitcoin grows faster than your debts, best of both worlds.
Fred is the man
he's not the man - he's a shitcoiner
Yes!
"in 30 years everyone will talk in Sats" - what a bear.
The BTC Power Law tops are outliers from the price distribution. In other words price can go very high over the 2 standard deviations without any problem. The real problem is that it will come back to the Power Law bottom very rapidly during the Bear part of the Cycle.
Fred says "everybody has a price" to Luke of all people - where BTC is concerned, if anyone does not have a price it's Luke 🤣
@@_outofphase5480 borrowing against it is not a price. A price is where you're giving it up. Borrowing against it does not mean you're giving it up. It means you're leveraging it. That's a different action. There's a difference between using a tool, and you giving up a tool.
hey fred! is printing money out of thin air also a powerlaw?? what happens when nationstates start printing money like crazy to accumulate as much btc as possible as fast as possible?
52:04. You're not being fair to British HODL. He didn't say, "don't spend on conferences." He said, "don't spend on conferences, unless you already have one whole coin." I think that's fair. If the cost of the conference is a significant % of your stack, you should stack instead.
Slow adoption is also the best thing for everyone, including Maximalists. More time to accumulate at discount prices.
You two are the Bitcoin RUclipsrs I trust the most. I’m very happy to hear a conversation between you both!
Buckle up
We are going to the moon
It's a community. And community is local. Bitcoin is central to Circular Economies.
I actually believe I’ve reached modeling saturation point. Too many and no one knows.
Up to the vanguard dialogue. All of my free cash is in vanguard and I have pulled out 20 percent in one month and bought Bitcoin directly. Also have put 5 percent of my Ira in Bitcoin via fidelity. Wake up boomer vanguard or I will move my kids and all my money out
Great video, thanks guys
Glad you enjoyed it!
Meh i dont agree with him.
yeah sure!!😂😂😂
Thank you Fred and Luke, a really wonderful conversation ❤
Thank you!🙂
As an interviewer, you should learn to be more firm and insist that you finish your points or questions before allowing the guest to respond. In an entire hour long "conversation" I don't think Fred let you finish your sentence one time. That's on him. But it's also on you to stop him and politely finish your point or inquiry.
Mute him while you speak 😂
It annoyed me too
Holes in my socks and underwear. Spoken like a true van lifer.
I dont know why btc cant continuely go up well beyoun 20 yrs out, as long as they are printing,,
As long as fiat survives...
How would we know who the buyers of BlackRock are? Is that public domain?
I think a 10x increase in adoption is a “minimum” (hard quotes) 10x increase. That 10x could pump varying degrees of money in. In anmetcalfs law does a 10x jump to a 100x price jump? No idea.
Great collaboration 🎉🎉
Thank you so much!
Bitcoin presently used as the primary currency in developing countries. When bitcoin reaches 10 percent adoption in USA the govt will impose laws to restrict and regulate your profiteering. The price will go down as it becomes more popular and regulated. Probably treated same as capital gains on shares.
Fred is selling his power law just like Plan B tried selling his chart, Fred's model is on a 5 year cycle when Bitcoin is a 4 year cycle.
He will be wrong and he will fade away just like all the other pundits! Fred has just discovered Bitcoin and is here to fix it!
Starting to doubt Fred’s ability to understand bitcoin, he seems to think NFTs and Runes are a smart decision to promote, clogging up the network and driving fees higher! Hmm not to sure…
Isn't Vanguard the biggest holder of Microstrategy shares?
Great interview🎉
Thank you!
I know Bro. I know
"What's a fax machine, dad?" "It's what replaced the Qwip machine, son."
Whats a Casio watch? It's what replaced the Swiss Watch Industry overnight
Lots of good quality information. Learned lots, thanks guys!
Thank you so much! Glad you enjoyed it!
Very good session, gentlemen!
Glad you enjoyed it!
I side with Luke on this one.
He's wrong. A sound asset takes years to mature, if it didn't it would be a scam meme coin. With bitcoin, you have to look at the long term.
The difference between the people who disagree with the power law, is they dont have the math background to explain why they think a power law will fail, are just running on a general feeling or cultural sentinement. They also disagree with the powerlaw because they dont understand the underlying math of why its important or just how its working.
fred is the best in the space now
Well 😊 now I know 😜 how a bullish bear sees Bitcoin future... Not bad 🤔👍 all though I don't agree! To start, do to World Countries adoption and it's Governments 🤔🌎 Don't get me started on inflation in America and Great loss of purchasing Power and money 🤑💰🇺🇲🤔💰 printed... You get my starting point 😜🇺🇲 Bitcoin Financial Freedom Baby 🍼🌎👍
I have a 3pm to 3am job.
Good stuff but waaaaay too long😮 This needs edit to 10 min. (max!)😮😨
disagree. i like the long form