'Historic' 40% Rally In Stocks By Summer: David Hunter Doubles Down On Market Melt-Up
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- Опубликовано: 29 июн 2024
- David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist of Contrarian Macro Investors, is doubling down on his market melt-up forecast, calling for the S&P 500 to test 7,000 before the melt-up ends. A global deflationary bust follows.
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David Hunter's interview with me last year: • Stocks Will ‘Melt-Up’ ...
*This video was recorded on May 1, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:33 - Market melt-up summary
8:40 - Fed monetary policy
11:36 - Trigger for market rally
16:54 - Inflation
21:05 - Small caps
23:05 - Sectors that will out/underperform
26:30 - Gold
29:23 - U.S. dollar
30:44 - Yield and bonds
34:44 - Global deflationary bust
43:55 - Bank failures
#stocks #investing #economy
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Is the S&P 500 going to 7,000 this year? Comment below on what you think and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW DAVID HUNTER:
Twitter (@DaveHcontrarian): twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
Does anyone really need a VPN?
David stop watching me! Holly molly.
David, why did you not push back on this nonsense? He has made these claims so many times and is always wrong.
@@stacynpauldocs5744he was right last year.
Hey David, maybe stick to interviewing SERIOUS people. OTHERWISE how are you different than CNBC? You’re NOT.
The main focus for markets now is Nvidia, which has powered a large chunk of the S&P 500’s recent earnings. Nvidia’s stock, up more than 90% this year, rose 2.5% in New York on Monday, sending the Nasdaq 100 index to another record high. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I can understand people being bearish with these conditions. However, it is not reasonable for most people to sit on the sidelines while your cash position debases by 10% or more per year..What is the best way for me to avoid inflation eating up my cash reserve of about 200k while investing it?
Inflation gives the illusion of growth. Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution these period. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions
Don't be in a hurry to get in. The market needs several days of strong performance to signal that the downturn might be over; i think It's a time to be largely, if not entirely, in cash
The economy and stocks are two different things these days, but i agree, I think it's brilliant to have a portfolio advisor for investing! The market's instability makes DIY risky. You don't need to find the next NVDA to succeed in investing. I've turned 330k into $25k in quarterly dividends using a fiduciary, a major milestone.
@greekbarrios I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* has always been on the top of my list..She is regarded as a genius in her area and well knowledgeable about financial markets. I highly recommend checking her out if you want excellent collaboration.
Have any of you been keeping an eye on your stock portfolios lately? I've faced significant losses recently. Some growth stocks I invested in seemed promising, but now things look bleak. My tech stocks, in particular, have been plummeting. I'm down nearly $100,000 in my portfolio.
This might be a good time to consult with a financial advisor and get some expert advice on how to weather this storm and possibly even capitalize on opportunities in this volatile market.
I totally agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is brilliant! Back in March 2020, during the pandemic crash, I was facing investing nightmares until I connected with an advisor. Long story short, I've grown my initial $120k investment to over $550k with their help.
I totally agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is brilliant! Back in March 2020, during the pandemic crash, I was facing investing nightmares until I connected with an advisor. Long story short, I've grown my initial $120k investment to over $550k with their help.
I think that is a brilliant idea, I tried managing my stock portfolio by myself and I lost 50% of my savings in a very short period. That prompted me to hire a financial advisor. Since then I have made up to $680K in returns.
@@Tevez875 I think that is a brilliant idea, I tried managing my stock portfolio by myself and I lost 50% of my savings in a very short period. That prompted me to hire a financial advisor. Since then I have made up to $680K in returns.
I want what David Hunter is smoking. Good stuff!
Lets talk at the end of 2024 mate. China economics are hidden. When that totalitarian collapses, so will the world economy.
😂😂😂😂😂😅 Yes I want to know as well. Obviously it is extremely good stuff he smokes
ill take a few ounces of that stuff
Yeah I’m bullish for this summer but you don’t get 40% gains when (by his own) the consumer is showing weakness and don’t have discretionary money.
@@omnimoeish you are underestimating how many more tricks Powell and Yellen have to support liquidity ...... David Hunter has been more right than wrong
David Hunter is basically the reverse Harry Dent lol
Buy the Harry Dent ETF lol
Indeed! Would love to see them debate!
Except both are shiit lol
I want to see hunters return, we all know Harry Dents if he even had any positions. 😅
Yes like between those two extremes who is going to believe anything ….
Mr Hunter does not present any hard data, no charts, no indicators. This coupled with the fact he has made the same call for multiple years….not very credible. He might be right but I’m very skeptical in magnitude and timing
He also might be smoking crack
Yeap
charts and indicators mean dick
13 years
He's been right about this year thus far. He made the calls last year. He also predicted last year would not be a recession. So for over a year, during highly uncertain times when 99% of market commentators have been wrong, he has made some good calls.
The debt based economy is just a variation of a Ponzi scheme. New debt pays for old debt, and it takes more and more debt to sustain the economy.
Correct. Plus congress is not going to curb their spending. Tax payments have caught up to the interests on national debt.
@@markwriter2698
What really is the end game of these schemes?
Surely the ones leading it must be aware it's unsustainable.
The market is filled with both overvaluation due to rapid gains and strong economic fundamentals justifying high valuations, thus raises concern for my $300k equities going up and down. At this point, is it better to wait or just sell off positions and hold cash?
Warren Buffett says the stock market is overvalued so he’s not buying. The recent layoffs are to prop up the numbers.
S&P today is 5k, so 7k is 40%. So 5% up every month! Love the optimism.
Not optimism.
Crack up boom 💥
Not 5%, it is 10% every month to get 40% at summer.
only posible way i see this happening is lowering interest rates and not 40% maybe 10% rally.
@alvancabrera391 usually when they lower there's a big problem
If we are now in an Austrian Crack-up boom phase....he may be correct in the end-game.
Anything with tangible value will zoom higher just like Zimbabwe when they printed $1T fiat notes.
Thank you for having David Hunter. I’ve been following him for two years. And always good to get updated.
Updated? Or strung along with the same dangling carrot?
I don’t know how David Lin always keeps a straight face. Impressive.
It's the hair mate, the hair.
Is the +40% melt up occurring before or after the alien invasion?
@@gtf5392 Stay on the sideline while others get rich.
@@gtf5392before apparently because 3 weeks later we're already approaching ramming speed.
@stuartmoore6310 - ok that makes sense. At first I thought it might be after, because all the new technologies the aliens would bring us would lead to productivity gains. But then I realized it would have to be before, because any gains would be more than offset by us constantly having to dodge their death rays.
David deserves lots of credit for his meltup call, I thought he was crazy last year when he kept calling for Mel, but here we are year later and most of the stuff he predicted went up parabolic. Can we reach his targets, I doubt it, I think they are meant to be the headline grabbers, but you never know
He’s been pushing it out since 2017. Every year is a different excuse why it hasn’t happened.
@scottdavis5749
What hasn't happened the melt up or the melt down?
there has not been a melt up so far
@@paulcoenen7918 Neither. His original targets were 5k Spx. Search for 2017/18 videos.
You are wrong, his targets are definitely not headline grabbers. If you have followed him long enough you would know his targets are very often met or very close. For example in January 2020 he forecasted a correction and then a melt-up with targets for SPX 4000, Nasdaq 11000, TLT 170 (TLT was met in 2 months after forecast), oil $10 (went minus 30).
Iv'e been following this guy for over a year, and other than his claim of an oil price decline, so far he's been 100% right.
I don't get the hate, he is right but timing can be off. But no one really gets timing right all the time. As long as the macro and trend is correct, that's the most important. If anything it give you time to adjust accordingly
@@Joda30088 Very few get timing right and when they do it’s usually luck. But if its within a year or two, that plenty close enough for me.
Dave Hunter is great, thanks for having him on your show!
All those fucking experts…and nobody really knows! Check the records.
Only Gareth Solovey knows...
This dude has been good. I thought he was insane when she was talking this business in Oct 2022, but he was bang on.
@@orirosengarten2572 just another shill
David Hunter was almost always right 🎯
Yea, still waiting on 10k Bitcoin
I remember laughing at David Hunter's predictions in early fall 2008. Never again. Bring him on often please David Lin.
what did he predict in 2008?
So many great minds interviewed and in the end , nobody knows nothing.
Nobody knows anything.
@@deborahcurtis1385 Somebody must know something . . . .
@@jfuite Yes of course they do. The effect of that double negative...
@@jfuite haha!! of course they do!
When I see a guy carries a crystal ball, then I know he knows something.
Lol. 🙃🤣
Amazing guest! Dave has been THE BEST forecaster over the last few years. This will Truly be a HISTORIC call should it come true. 👏
Ha! Dude called a melt up as the market was in clear distribution. SPY pulled back nearly 30% then. Eventually any prediction can come true, but it's just a fool's game.
David Hunter is a man that sticks to his words.
David Hunter has been correct about past melt-ups. He predicted the melt up to 4500, then melt up to 5500, and now a melt up to 7000. The problem is all of his melt-up predictions are followed by an 80% drop and none of those have come to fruition.
Appreciate David Hunters guts to forecast the future and I think he is very close to accurate
7000 by summer lol, I’ll have what he’s smoking please
I have an SP500 target of 47,000, sometime between now and 2051.
if he can predict the market, why David Hunter is not a billionaire?
Same question to banking crooks who lose a shed load of money then start hollering for bailouts, money printing, "stimulus" ..etc.
What are they experts at?
@@user-lb8bg6kj9m they aren't.
I’m sure he has several million, if not 10+ million in the bank and assets. 50 years on Wall Street you have to be doing something right. His newsletter is $1500 a year for subscribers and he’s been doing 20 years.
Are you? LOOOOL
FKN brokies
Excellent interview. Please get David Hunter back on the show to give an update and perhaps also discuss real estate. Thanks!
I recently watched a movie where a character remarked, ‘If you want to swindle someone out of their money, you first need to trigger their greed.’
Since 2020, I’ve noticed Hunter predicting a staggering melt up followed by an 80% global crash in his interviews. It appears he might be trying to exploit the FOMO to get people to throw in their money.
That's exactly what he does.
I don't think more than .05% of investors know who he is or have watched any of his interviews. Certainly many more folks know and follow Harry Dent.
Well since 2020 SP is up 50%.. and last pump.ofe every cycle is the parabolic one.. so your kinda supporting his theory with that comment🤷♂️
Wow. He is quite the story teller. Has no charts or any proof of any kind. He is just taking a guess
This guy has a track record that begs the question why is he still being interviewed.
No self respecting channel should air his nonsense, or if they do, they should go back over all of his grossly exaggerated and incorrect calls over the past years, and ask him to explain them.
Because it's not about someone's prediction, but the arguments they use, which you then choose to add or subtract from your own thesis.
he's been right way more than wrong.
and certainly more right than most other analysts
Wealthion, 18th June 2021, 'Stock Market Melt-Up Followed By 80% Crash THIS YEAR' | David Hunter (PT1).
Northern Trading Group, 17th March 2022, just before the crash, 'Macroeconomist David Hunter on MASSIVE Stock Market Melt Up Rally Coming!'
Contrarian Investor Podcast, 14th May 2020, 'David Hunter: Market ‘Melt Up’ Will Continue Until Late Summer Before Onset of ‘Deflationary Bust’'.
Gold Core TV, 28th April, 2022, 'David Hunter Stock Market Prediction - DOW 45,000 In 2022'.
Financhill. At one point in late 2020, he said that the S&P 500 could drop below 1,000. What does that mean for his prediction of a 2022 market crash to rival that of 1929?
CaseyResearch. 20th August 2014. David believes that the stock market’s multi-year rally is ending and that we’re on the precipice of a historic crash - worse than even 2008.
All of these fucking guys should have to maintain a running score of correct/incorrect next to their names at all times.
I mean you could have saved a word there ... everybody knows it so I guess we'll just treat it as glorified entertainment
No window washers today?
They washed the windows already on Monday 😂
But there are plenty of window lickers.
It’s clear 😂
I agree with everything he is saying. At least he was honest about btc and saying he don't know shit about it
I don't understand this guy. Oil, real estate, and commodities will all decrease in value but the stock market will increase 40%? Since when have serious recession indicators led to extremely bullish stock markets?
JP just entered the comment section.
Excellent video. Glad David interviewed David Hunter and I hope this happens at least every quarter.
This makes sense. Markets usually rally into a recession
What do you think they’ve been doing lol
We just had a rally for the ages while the Chinese property bubble has been imploding in the background.
@@AMP98765 There is a record amount of cash on the sidelines. I'm just saying it's possible and would make sense for it to play out.
David Hunter is very committed to his Macro analysis. He ignores day to day fluctuations and focuses on the behavior of investors based on emotional driven decisions.
S&P to $5,600 then IT begins...
He has 80% melt-up every July!
Just like Hary Dent? The only difference between them is Hary Dent put that in every May.
@@texan4958 & Dent predicts a dent in the economy, & thinks that we need “a pretty damn good recession!” 🤣
Thank you David and David. Always a great guest!
Love hearing David Hunters analysis. Hope we get to hear from him again soon
Data-centered, insightful analysis. Thank you.
The gentlemen, is right, Starbucks was the Canary in the cold mine. And Tweety Bird got smashed.
Great channel David can you get Simon Hunt on your show ? Remember he promised us that the S&P would reach 3000 in 2023 ?
In my opinion the problem with his theory is the presumption that inflation will come down. The primary driver of inflation is government deficit spending. Right now the government spends $1 trillion dollars every $100 days! How is the fed going to stop that?
I remember one good call Hunter made. At the depths of doom during the pandemic, he was one of the few bullish prognosticators. However, he's been pretty bad since then. He's called for the dollar weakening and it has done the opposite. He's still doing better than Harry Dent.
Yes I don't think anyone saw this staying power of the US economy over this last year ecept maybe Lynn Aldin, she does mention it's going to be pretty tough to go into a recession with trillions in government spending . A consumer recession yes but not a overall recession.
David you are the man. Keep up the hard work, you make old school financial tv personalities look like schmucks
Thank you Mr. Hunter for voicing your forecasts. Appreciate your short-term bullishness. Am very worried about your big bear calls in the fall.
Sold my APPL before it tanked, will buy at next major drop. I’d definitely need to make use of the $250k liquidity elsewhere. So what should I be looking at? Large cap or small cap stocks? Maybe crypto?
Mr. Hunter is refreshing & interesting. Marching to his own drum. Thank you!
David, you have evolved so much over the past year that you have become head and shoulders better than any interviewer I've watched in years. Congratulations.
conclusion : GOLD , GOLD , GOLD .... period !
Yes, accumulate now, and that includes producers and explorers likely to produce, watch for their cutoff points to show economic feasibility and feasibility studies. They are under rated and you can get a good one very cheaply. Avoid any countries with sovereign risk, it's not going to be easier with POG going parabolic and staying up. There will be civil disturbances for sure. JIMO
Nice interview David. You nailed the questions. Thank you sir!
Every time I hear this guy his estimates goes up. I think he was saying S&P 6100 back in November.
This guy is Harry Dent in reverse. Harry keeps projecting a bigger and bigger crash, Hunter keeps predicting a bigger and bigger run pre-crash.
That is exactly how it works.
This guys moved the goal post more than Pele.
With the majority of people expecting a melt up or last squeeze to happen before the crash due to the economic macro, I dont think any melt up will happen. I hear a lot of people are in the sideline with pile of cash
I can’t believe anyone is giving this guy the time of day (no pun intended). What’s the difference between Mr Hunter and a broken clock? The broken clock is correct twice a day 😁.
7000 S&P by year's end AND a recession by the end of 2024?
Very ambitious calls. How do you have 7000 on the S&P and a recession by year's end?
David Hunter is the most accurate in a room everyone is wrong.
Totally agree. Final rally and spectacular melt down afterwards
The last time David faced Goliath, David won but this time around Goliath will flatten David!!!
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
...MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area . By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Talk about speculation...
We have no certainty as to what will happen, but something will happen...
We're certain of that, something will happen!!
That's some strong coffee 😂☕️ he's drinking.. $700 $SPY before 2025 🤣
He made similar crazy baseless predictions last year that never happened. Dude is nuts.
@@AMP98765 Yeah melt up is likely given history but his targets are pretty silly. We move maybe 10-15% up over the next 6 months right before the election. Then crash time LOL
@@AMP98765 good point
@@5600hp indeed, this market will have people making some outlandish claims as a lottery ticket..
He’s a broken clock at this point
I lurf watching Hunter make a fool of himself.
40% lolol
Argument from personal incredulity.
Great questions, great answers.
you have it backwards. The market will correct first and then the money will flood in. The difference is that there is a ton of money getting 5 percent or greater and very pleased with that rate of return with War and inflation under that amount.
where can we find his market performance (real results for 1yr, 3 yr , 5 yr etc)? Anyone can mkae outlandish claims, but how are their actual investment returns over time?
Oil price going lower is in the direction of the lower inflation trend.
An excellent interview!
Great guest
Dave is like Jerome P. with the 🥕 tease
I appreciate the thoughts of David. I think he is absolutely right. We will see, im long and will ride the wave.
TLT, GLD, BTC and you're good! He's been on point all along, same goes for your older visitor - Henrik Zeberg.
i had to rewind the beginning like 5 times. s&p 7k lol. im here for it
I want 60 silver before end of year.Cash out of a chunk of ozs hope he is right.Happy stacking/investing.
Great guest. Cheers
Thank you David. Always my favorite guest.
$3600 Russell, $60 to $75 silver, bla bla $ S&P and NASDAQ...
He is drinking drinking and talking I guess
Michael Oliver says the market ( in his learned view ) is topping now, David Hunter says it’s ready to melt up to unbelievable highs- I consider both these very experienced men to be among the most knowledgeable in their field. But only one of them will be proven correct….. which will it be ….. I tending toward David Hunter.
Hello 👋🏻 Do you help people with investing in crypto? I just don't know which and when to invest, please help.
Though I started with £15,000 actually because it was my first time and it was successful.
Please how do I go about it, am still a newbie on investment trading and how can I make profit?
Alright thanks for the recommendation, but how do I reach her?
She's always act~ive on Whats App.
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David hunter is the best... if this scenario plays out you need to make him the #1 star of your show. Garreth Soloway is old news, David hunter is the real deal!
David Hunter and David Lin are the best.
So far he has been right on the direction, but not the magnitude or timing.
1 out of 3.
Most were totally wrong last year. The direction is worth more than 1/3. If you get the direction wrong it’s game over.
Why would you have volume in summer when everyone steps away from markets until 4th quarter
Hunter tells a fun story but is all conjecture. I'm surprised he didn't just say, "The market is going to zero tomorrow and then to infinity by Friday. 😂😂
Hey David, I just sent you a message yesterday to bring back David Hunter as 1 of your top 4 Best guests, and behold here is David Hunter, thank you so much... The Battle of the Davids...haha If BOJ sells US Treasuries, will that put a downward pressure on the DXY?
Hunter's predictions don't work.
Very interesting views from David Hunter, smart guy...
I like this man's willingness to make bold calls against the herd. But I can't imagine copper going down to $1 in a short-term deflationary period -- while the world needs to sharply increase electrification. The world needs a lot of copper over the coming decades, and there has been very big under-investment in developing new copper supplies to meet projected demand. I think $10 copper within a few years is highly likely. I think there is close to nil chance of $1 copper. We will see.
I like to hear the views of the unusual forecasters, like Tom Lee and this guy were both spot on with a big rise in 2023. Let’s be humble enough to admit we really don’t know ourselves what will happen a lot of the time
I've been following Dave a while and I think his calls are pretty good - you just have to be very patient and wait a long time for them to 'play-out' - Watch & Learn Dudes ! 👍🏻😎
pretty bold call, to give both price and timeline. we shall see 🍿🍿
7k sounds unrealistic BUT everyone and their moms have been conditioned to keep buying
market has shifted from buy the dip to sell the rip now, at least until QE begins
I think it's not so much mums and dads, but the big investors who have loads of money sitting on the sidelines. They will make some big moves some of which will be in IT and in biotechs, a lot in gold miners. JIMO.
@@deborahcurtis1385 why would they invest now when they can just wait until interest rates are much lower and borrow free money, using their cash as collateral
@@Jaydoggie1we’re not too far from that, Powell said decelerating the tightening this summer. Markets will definitely sniff that out and start pricing it in
Holy shit... look at JPN/USD after the FOMC speech. Prescient shit there by David
This guy is, in a word, INSANE.
I don't know if he is right. I don't put any value on prognostications but it is good to see the logic of how he feels it's going to happen. I always like to see how folks arrive at their conclusions even if i don't agree.
Thanks!
Dave is IN!
Dave seems to verbalize my thoughts and what I’ve been looking at well.
Great guest!
Superb interview