Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation. By Paul J. H. Schoemaker

Paul J. H. Schoemaker served on the faculties of the University of Chicago, Cedep at Insead, and The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He took a two year academic sabbatical with Shell’s scenario planning group in London in the 1980s where he worked closely with Kees van der Heijden. Following that, he founded Decision Strategies International, Inc. for which he served as CEO and Executive Chairman over several decades. Paul is the author of twelve books and more than 120 articles covering decision making, innovation, technology and strategy. In this video, he explains his classic 1993 paper, "Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation" published in Strategic Management Journal. Paul explains how scenario planning differs from other strategic decision tools and why scenario thinking developed mostly in practice. He also walks us through various experiments he conducted for his 1993 article, in support of his hypothesis that scenario planning pits two cognitive biases against each other, the conjunction fallacy and overconfidence. He argues that scenario planning’s special power in overcoming biases lies in "fighting fire with fire." Paul concludes the interview by discussing unresolved issues and promising avenues for cognition-based research in scenario planning. The paper can be accessed at www.researchga... and Paul can be reached at [e-mail].

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Thank you