Why Weather Forecasts Suck
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- Опубликовано: 24 авг 2022
- Find out how DeepMind is working to improve “nowcasting” - www.deepmind.com/blog/nowcast... - and learn more about their scholarship program - www.deepmind.com/scholarships
There are two types of rain, and one of them is almost impossible to forecast.
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To learn more about this topic, start your googling with these keywords:
- Front: a boundary separating air masses of different characteristics, such as air density, wind, temperature, and humidity
- Frontal rainfall: occurs when a warm air mass comes in contact with a colder air mass
- Convectional rainfall: occurs when the sun's energy heats the surface of the Earth, causing water to evaporate to form water vapour
- Nowcasting: weather forecasting limited to periods less than a few hours
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REFERENCES
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Ravuri, S., Lenc, K., Willson, M. et al. (2021) Skilful precipitation nowcasting using deep generative models of radar. Nature 597, 672-677. doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03...
Simonin D, Pierce C, Roberts N, Ballard SP and Li Z (2017) Performance of Met Office hourly cycling NWP-based nowcasting for precipitation forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (708): 2862-2873. doi.org/10.1002/qj.3136
Sun J, Xue M, Wilson JW, Zawadzki I, Ballard SP, Onvlee-Hooimeyer J, Joe P, Barker DM, Li P, Golding B, Xu M, & Pinto J (2014). Use of NWP for Nowcasting Convective Precipitation: Recent Progress and Challenges, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(3): 409-426. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-002...
Weckwerth T, Parsons DB, Koch SE, Moore JA, Lemone MA, et al. (2004). An Overview of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and Some Preliminary Highlights. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society 85 (2): 253 - 277. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-2-253
Wilson, JW, & Roberts RD (2006). Summary of Convective Storm Initiation and Evolution during IHOP: Observational and Modeling Perspective, Monthly Weather Review, 134(1): 23-47. doi.org/10.1175/MWR3069.1
Ye H, Fetzer EJ, Wong S, and Lambrigtsen BH (2017). Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century. Science Advances 3: e1600944. doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600944 
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I’m 67 years old and live in the eastern half of the United States. Weather forecasts here have improved a lot since I was a child. Up to five day forecasts are usually accurate as to general conditions. Hazardous weather is usually forecast several hours, up to a few days in advance. Hurricane forecasts are much better than they were. Even tornado producing storms are usually forecast at least a fews hours in advance. Tornados themselves remain dangerously unpredictable, but when they form, we get rapid and accurate warnings. I think the U.S. Weather Service is doing a great job.
When I was a kid the weather forecast was a joke, but now I check the five day forecast a lot and it has the temperatures within a couple degrees a week in advance 90+ percent of the time. Rain prediction is still spotty. Especially in the mountains where I live.
They're the best. AccuWeather is evil. I hate them.
@@CharChar2121 i usually rely on local airport weather forecast, global forecasts apps suck 🙄
Here in Ireland the weather forecast sucks
@@Volodimar Whatever the Windows desktop app is running is surprisingly accurate. It's "rain to stop" and "rain to start" messages as well as "rain" (replace rain with snow too) are exceptionally accurate even in a valley between two mountains.
I learned that to ignore that is to walk home soaked.
That’s one of the reasons why forecasts traditionally used phrases like “scattered rain” or “isolated showers”. Sometimes we know that rain will occur for some places in a region but won’t know where exactly, due to the inherently chaotic nature of convection, so forecasts were worded to convey that uncertainty. Forecast technology has advanced tremendously in the last few decades, but the fine details might remain inherently unpredictable due to sensitive dependence on initial conditions. It’s the difference between knowing that heating up a pot of water will cause a certain amount of bubbling, and trying to predict exactly when and where each bubble will form.
and you only have 4 data points in your pot.
This is good timing as in Hungary the Government fired the heads of the National Weather Forecast Agency, because they "predicted the weather wrong" during our national holiday, so they had to cancel the event.
The ironic thing in it, that it was the Government who decided to cancel the event, not the Weather Service.
It must be a hard job, and I really felt bad for the Weathermans.
That reminds me of Caligula declaring war on the sea 😐
Hugary's government is more idiotic then Polish one, and that is really an achivement.
This is blatant OMSZ propaganda /s
Was looking for this comment😀
Bojler eladó
I work in climatology of extreme weather events and how I like to put it is:
Imagine a saucepan filled with boiling water above a source of heat, if you move the saucepan around, you can see the areas where the bubbles form change and that is what climatologist are doing, now try and predict where every little bubble explodes on the surface of the water, it’s what meteorologist are doing with convective events and it’s why it’s so hard to be accurate !
Perfect timing. The head of Meteorological Service was fired after wrong forecast for national holiday in Hungary.
But as what I heard from some scientists:
It's easier to predict the overall weather of planet Jupiter than the local weather on our own planet Earth. Nature and how we are able to interpret things can be quite odd.
Maybe because we are tracking planetary scale weather in Jupiter (or atleast on a larger scale)? Also maybe the fact that Jupiter is mostly gases whereas Earth's Atmosphere has to experience the effects of both Water and Land.
@@Sivah_Akash Jupiter's weather is very stable compared to Earth. Storm patterns last for decades if not centuries.
well we already predicted it's going to submerge islands in 20 years last 30 years
@@archmad that’s not weather that’s climate
@@archmad , was it a consensus or just a few sources saying that?
This video was uploaded literally a few minutes after I was explaining rain and barometric pressure to my mother-what a coincidence!
XD
Situations like this normally trigger people to claim "My phone is secretly listening to me!"
Remember, people: Coincidences just happen.
@@RealRomplayer Yeah, I’ve heard people say that. You’re right. Entropy just leads to fun surprises once in awhile.
Or was it ?
@@witness1013 _Vsauce music plays_
As a professional weather forecaster, I always shake my head when I’m told how weather forecasts “suck” considering, with the exception of prediction of astronomical objects, weather forecasts are the most successful forms of predicting humans do.
There are several things in this video that are just plain wrong though, and make it seem like convection is completely a mystery. It’s not. We might not know quantities to super precision but we can predict whether we’re getting just showers or severe thunderstorms. And convection usually is LARGER than the resolution of radar beams, not smaller. We know the wind speeds and can watch how fast showers or storms are moving. This is how the Storm Prediction Center can actually do Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings, and give estimates of when the storm will arrive in different locations.
Seriously usually videos on this channel are good, but as a lesson in meteorology, this one is not.
I'd love to hear more about this; what's the limiting component to weather predictions then? The observations, the chaotic nature of weather, or something else?
Also, what's the cause of the discrepancy between humans generally considering weather forecasts to be poor? Is it just because we experience weather in a local scale, whereas weather forecasts are accurate on a larger scale?
@@CapSora The big limiting component is chaos. But there have also been improvements due to faster computers (which allow for smaller scales to be modelled directly) and higher resolution of satellite photos, among other things.
As for the discrepancy with the impression of accuracy, it really comes down to confirmation bias. You care much more when you make a decision based on the forecast and the forecast is wrong, than when you make it and the forecast is right. And so you'll remember when it's wrong more often.
Also, you more often 'lose' more when it's wrong, and humans value loss more than gain.
But also, it depends on what being "wrong" actually is. For instance, if the probability of precipitation is 30%, and the forecasted amount is 0.25" and it rains...but it rains 0.30" instead....was the forecast "wrong" Technically, sure. But most people wouldn't care about a difference of only 0.05" of rain...and probably wouldn't even be able to tell the difference.
If I forecast sun with a high of 72, and it's 75...does anyone care? But what if I forecast rain, with a low of 34...but instead that low is 32...you're probably seeing snow instead of rain, even though my temperature forecast is actually closer.
And you'll probably wonder what was wrong with the forecaster that they couldn't forecast snow.
@@DeannaGilbert616 that's a great explanation, thank you!
Thank you. I'm in the UK and our weather forecasts have improved a lot over the past 40 years. Come on @minuteearth a response is needed here 🤔
Or perhaps all their videos are greatly flawed and you just know enough about this subject to know that this particular one is greatly flawed.
I like how cute the art style is in this one! The little faces on the cold/warm masses of air makes it all the more fun to watch and learn!
Yeah, it’s rather cute
Wow, I recognized Valencia's city map because of the Jardin del Turia. Neat!
I lived next to the largest temperate rain forest in North America. When people would ask me about our weather conditions, I would reply back, “We have two seasons. Warm and wet , then cold and wet.”
Malaysia is like that too. And I love it!
In fact, my grandmother's apartment was literally right next to a rainforest. From the carpark we could see and hear wild roosters, pythons, monkeys, and red dragonflies.
That is nothing Mumbai has only 2 settings Warm and dry, warm and wet
"Rain in the wet, showers in the dry."
But when it comes to forecasts, they are pretty much always right. You know you'll get it if they forecast rain, and there are always showers in the area if they forecast that. The showers might miss you on any one day, but that doesn't mean the forecast is wrong.
At 2:15, there's a map of Valencia in the background!
I've noticed a huge improvement in weather forecast accuracy over the last decade, so clearly we're understanding things better than before or at least we have better data. Unfortunately, in my region, weather forecasts aren't necessary 8 months of the year - anyone can predict that "Today will be scorchingly hot and unbearably humid"
Similarly, in my neck of the woods, in all seasons excluding summer (which we only have now thanks to global warming) we can be sure that at some point during the day, it will rain. The humidity is never really going away. And there's a 3/4 chance of total cloud cover for at least half the day.
.
After that, the questions are of how many thunderstorms will hit at once (Spring), how large the inevitable hail will be before it turns to slush (Winter), and how big and where-at the pileup(s) will be from the many out-of-towners and newbies to the state that will crash because they're not used to driving in the rain of our ever-wet conditions. Those are the real variables the news tries to report accurately each season.
@@iprobablyforgotsomething Rain at summer? Snow? I'm so jealous right now, I haven't seen a drop of rain in several months, and I've only ever seen snow falling once in my life
Proper title: Why Rain Forecasts Kinda Suck
As some other commenters have mentioned, weather forecasts have actually improved leaps and bounds over the past few decades, particularly with longer-range forecasts. And even with rain, being confident with 40% of it and hit-or-miss with the other 60% is still gonna net you about 70% accuracy overall. That doesn't suck. People just complain about weather (i.e. rain) forecasts the most because it sucks when your plans get rained out. But the old adage/joke that "weather forecasts suck" is really rather outdated.
2:08 Isn't this Valencia, Spain?
Yes it is! Good eye ;)
Convective rain can be hilariously weird causing rain to occur within feet or a few miles of your location and your house stays dry.
In the city I live now, Quito, we had an everlasting changing weather all year long, sun in the morning, rain at the afternoon, and then sun again.
This year in particular feels like the weather forecasts have been terrible.
Different apps saying completely different things, and weather predictions changing 3 times within 3 hours.
But this year has also seen some pretty exceptional weather for the UK. First ever time the country broke 40°C, and there's a drought.
Can't wait to see what's going to happen to us during the winter.
I remember seeing a movie about a weatherman where someone brought this up and the answer they got sums it up pretty good IMO. "It's wind! It blows around all over the damn place!"
So what makes the shortlived convective rain more common in certain areas? In Pittsburgh, it's 100% true that rain or snow or clear skies can stop after only 5 minutes.
Last week in Austria, five people died because they got in a storm. Meteorologists said, they didn't know the storm was coming in this direction, because it travelled so fast (~ 200 km/h). It came and went within 15 minutes.
They have absolutely no clue when and where it's going to rain in Florida. We have the eastern seabreeze meeting the western seabreaze and it storms in some spots and is completely blue skies in others and blue skies during storms in other areas. Our forecast is basically, it might rain at some point in time. I've seen lots of storm clouds today and zero rain. Right now I'm under clear skies with lots of lightning in the area.
In the southeast, it’s very humid during the summer, so random rainstorms happen a lot
I always used the term 'Popcorn Showers' for Convective Rain, there is just so much heat and moisture in the area that little showers pop in and out almost at random~
Yea I was at Las Vegas yesterday and I stormed past the storm, It was pretty cool. It lasted an hour, I saw dust rise from the ground because it was being sucked up. The road had a river running through it and I got scared and drove back against traffic. It was a fun day.
I see other people already pointed out the map of valencia at 2:08, but what's so cool is that we just had a convective storm here when this was uploaded! Coincidence?
When i saw the map i was like OMG is that Valencia??? :D
I am a weather enthusiast and have a small weather channel on twitter. I live in Bengaluru (south india) and more than 90% of the rain we receive (quantitatively) is from monsoon withdrawal phase thuderstorms (convective rain) and i can confirm that even the most brilliant meteorologists, radars etc cannot track these systems. Also it is a pain when people comment "is it going to rain here?" Cuz their movements are erratic as HELL.
I work in airline flight planning (including monitoring during the entire flight) so I'm about as close as one can get to meteorology without having a degree in that field. Between my experience and reading the book "The Weather Machine" which explains how we started forecasting weather, I can say that we've come a long way! It's said that we gain about one day of accurate forecast every ten years due to advances in technology (like supercomputing and observational data). Besides, sometimes it's obvious that when the call for rain in Houston (which covers a massive amount of area), there may be showers here but not there at one moment and then other places and then other places, all within the area in the same day.
That also must depend on where you live. Here it seems that fronts are pretty common and the weather forecast tend to be very accurate. Though it can be a bias from my part.
Where is this “here” u speak of? This is the internet and youtube comments are pretty much anonymous, so how do u expect anyone to know what you’re referring to if u don’t specify?? Lol
@@MerkhVision Here as where I am locally in physical space. Not in digital space. ;)
0:40 Love the Breath of the Wild Reference!
Thank you for showing the map of Valencia in the radar drawing
I live in Poland, here we have 3 different air fronts from different sides and it's impossible to predict weather for more than 48 hours in advance
You used Valencia in the map as an example, my city 😊😊, blindblowing moment hahaha
Another, Nice Earth and Space, Science RUclips, Video..!! 🌧⛈
The art in this episode was really good! I loved the cute and expressive faces on the clouds lol
I'd imagine in dry, desert regions like California (which is basically in the middle of a permanent drought) don't experience sudden rainfalls during the summer months. Here in the UK, suddenly raining in the middle of a hot summer's day is extremely common and it's so annoying because it's when you're out and about without an umbrella or a coat, and you end up getting soaked. I am worried my suit will get ruined like that one day because I'm poor and so buying new suits for job interviews sucks, and I feel stupid carrying an umbrella around with me when it's sunny outside, when it's really overcast, that's different...
We do have summer rains. They're rarer, especially now. Most people don't live in the desert areas either. The coast is nearly a desert but not quite.
California is definitely not mostly a dry desert area lol. (It’s one of the most fertile places in America!) You’re thinking of places like Nevada and parts of Arizona instead.
The desert Southwest of the US is indeed in a megadrought, however we can get downpours that rival the tropics during the summer Monsoon.
Intense severe thunderstorms fueled by local terrain enhancing the lift and humid air from the tropics can dump an entire year's worth of rain in one area in less than an hour. Along with Lightning, Hurricane Force Winds, and sometimes large hail, these "Microbursts" usually cause intense and devastating Flash Flooding. The ground has no time to absorb the trillions of gallons of water so it all runs downhill.
Why I don't hear that on TED or something like that, because there are about numbers, that we don't have enough information.
I liked your explanation - convective rain. Example that I needed, great illustration.
Thank you a lot, now it's easier for me to understand why forecasting so complicated, because it's complicated, there a lot of factors and those convective rains.
Good example, along with TED video where they talk about billions (in fact a lot more) of particles in the air.
I wait for a moment that should happen with me when children at school would know something like that while adults don't. Because I have experienced that with my seniors - revolutionary things in past now are ordinary.
I am 23 and I just found out this information, thank you.
This is why I always carry an umbrella with me. Too hot climate, I can use it; Rainy climate, I can also use it.
Weather app: 90% rain morning until afternoon
Reality: 2 minutes of rain
Those numbers can be very confusing. Like you think with higher numbers it’s gonna rain longer. But it just means how likely it is to rain at all and not at your exact location but in your area.
Central canada here (montreal)! The weather forecasters suck at predicting rain or a lot of sun, but they are really good at predicting snow, allergens, sun, and wind.
The main problem is, if rain is predicted, you cancel plans. If it doesn't actually rain (or does), you miss out.
If sun is predicted, and it rains, you will have to cancel, and you miss out. 3/4 times, you miss out instead of 2/4 times
Very nice information 👌 lots of love and support from ur new subscriber ❤️ keep going my friend 👍
So, that's why it rained unpredictably at Splish Splash water park a few weeks ago! The weather forecast called for sunny skies, but during the trip, it rained out of nowhere!
I remember a day in 4th grade when it would rain for 10-20 minutes then be sunny the water would evaporate off the hot asphalt and then it would rain again, I think i counted atleast 8 cycles in just the time I was at school
Last week thunderstorms where forecasted here and nothing. Today thunderstorms should come and nothing. Tomorrow thunderstorm should come.
A few weeks ago rain was forecasted for the day and water came from the sky. The thing was it was like someone was using a spray can for like 5 minutes. The ground didn't got wet and all it done was making the air wet and hotter.
I'm not upset when the rain comes but not directly over we. Usually when I hear thunderstorms, I expect long lasting rain but that moves. This usually means the sun gets blocked for a while at it helps cooling everything off.
It shouldn't be that hard to classify the rain better. I only want to know if there is rain coming that does nothing, cools off an area, everything gets flooded or its just annoying, because it only makes wet air.
But what I also miss is a better warning for lighting. I want a warning when the chance is getting higher, when lightning can strike on me or not. A few years ago, a lightning strike struck a few hundert meters away from me. I was outside and waiting for my bus and I had zero protection. I actually was scared. It was quite a strong one.
If you can hear thunder, you can get hit by lightning. It just so happens that the distance the sound from a lightning strike attenuates to near zero is about the distance it’s possible for a lightning bolt to extend laterally before striking the ground.
am i guessing right that this video was made specifically in response to the BS that is going on in hungary and the national weather forecast agency? if yes, thank you so so much for being relevant ~
question : solar updraft towers could be used to create convective rain ?
solar updraft towers are a rather intresting structure to me at least : they are basically large flat greenhouse with gaps in their walls and a really tall chimney that can suck up air thanks to the greenhouse effect and the raising of hot air trough the main chimney ,
they are suggested for energy , wich i think are terrible considering we have PV and just nuclear ,
however they could cause convective rain since it causes a controlled updraft that may make rains more likely
while also powering glider type aircrafts
There's more to convective rain than just "updraft".
To put it simply, just because an air mass is warm, doesn't mean it'll go up. Sometimes the atmosphere is just that stable that there's not enough lift to push the moist, warm air upwards far enough if at all. Skew-T Log-P chart reading usually explain forms of precipitation (or the lack of it) quite well
I live i Wichita, KS, and people don't understand that when the meteorologist says "rain in the forecast" it actually pertains to a larger area than their exact location. Henceforth, i hear a lot of comments like "those weather guys are b.s." and "science can't figure anything out". Meanwhile its raining the next suburb over...
2:49 his hat and the ballon look like a AMOGUS ඩඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞඞ
When u talked about rain from hard to predict small patches of cloud, the first thing came to my mind is DeepMind's Alphafold. Apparently the breadcrumb trail was well laid. But the sad thing is - their scholarship program doesn't include Asia at all, let alone South Asia, where I'm from!
Honestly, DeepMind has gotten where they are by keeping valuable data proprietary. Open source the data and keep your algorithms to yourself, and someone else (with a lot of computing resources) will still come up with a solution that works just as well.
@@ChasmChaos Is the algorithm open source? Cos, scientists need to study that.
I predicted this 4 minute video would be ¼ ad,
and I was not wrong.
In Scotland there’s always a chance of rain which really confuses the weather forecast
Is it a coincidence that this is coming out after Hungarian meteorological service's head has been kicked out becouse they couldn't tell more accurately than 80% that rain will come or not ?
Exactly the same question came to my mind :)
old title: Why is predicting rain so hard?
Fantastic video
This was great! Thank you. Should be taught as early as in kindergarden.
It's almost like we don't have 80 different ways of compensating for small variables and most of our monitoring equipment isn't covering most of the ground so we have to do a boat load of guesswork on certain types of predictions
That city map shown was from my home city, Valencia! 😱 Funny
0:49 :O hyrule!!!
I was just ranting about this today!
Fun fact: a type of fungi can control rain by releasing tons of spores into the sky.
1:10 is this what we also call "scattered rain showers and thunderstorm"?
The drawings are so good..
Hii This is from weather forecast India 🇮🇳 we are doing it awsmm
Why wasn't this here when I was in science class last year learning about it. this would have helped me so much! 😭 My science teacher literally just gave me notes to copy and then basically said figure it out 😭
Valencia, Spain !
These animation are really good
So what this tells me is that there is merit in differentiating the forecast accordingly as well. Right now you only ever see more generic stuff like "will it rain". It would probably be useful to somehow differentiate highly predictable weather front based rain from highly unpredictable heat patch based rain. While you can probably deduce that after watching this video yourself as the end user of weather forecasts, it would probably be handy if this was somehow differentiated with much more than chance of rain. If fronts are easy to predict, the confidence of that probability is much higher than that of the quick chance rainfalls and should somehow be marked differently. How exactly, I don't know, but it feels like they should. Or if they already are, it is not in a way that I as a layman have been able to deduct, and probably needs better signaling.
The Australian bureau of meteorology now gives forcasts with rain quantity at 10% confidence, 25% confidence 75% confidence and 90% confidence intervals. So it's easier to separate the "chance of showers" and "chance of storms", from the light drizzle and heavy rains.
So the data is out there! More meteorology departments should do this!
The map in 2:07 is Valencia, Spain?
Cool video
My experience here, in the UK, is that the forecasts are pretty good and accurate
This is great
I don't like heavy sunshine either, so I just always have an umbrella. XD
They better not be wrong about the week straight of rain starting tomorrow because I am DONE with back to back heatwaves abusing me and my lack of AC because this heat does not belong here! >:c
So, it's really small localized weather that's hard to predict? Doesn't seem that bad.. Also, what if we track heat spots instead, is it viable?
Please rewatch the entire video.
2:12 Ey, as a Valencian I could identify our city there. Wasn’t expecting that, I am proud
What pushed you to chose Valencia?
It's so frustrating when weather forecast says "it will be rainy tomorrow" but turned out to be fair weather all along, or vice versa. And I don't get why predict the weather for the next five days when they can't even accurately predict the weather for the next 24 hours.
2:08 that's Valencia right there
i'm not sure if it can help any but here in Denmark we have an old saying the roughly translates to: if the sky looks like a sheeps belly it wil rain within 3 days. and i can recall a time for thats not been true for the past 10 years
Steve Udelson da Goat
Like Double D said, "Summer rains, you can never predict them."
Funny, I literally just did for a major North American airport…
How the weather “forecast” in New Mexico works: Use the hourly updates as the forecast. Works every time!! 🤔👍
Noone gave minuteearth a memo about orographic rain
Now everything makes sense
Honestly it doesn't seem that innacurate these days, week long forecasts seem to be pretty damn accurate when I bother checking (mostly to bitch about the Temperature to foreign friends without them saying their place it worse lol)
Please upload on Nebula
FirstI love your videos they’re so cool and they inspire me to make videos
Before COVID, google forecast were really accurate. But now if it says 90% chance of rain, it never rains and when it says 10%, it always rains.
2:09 València
Didn't expect that lol
2:54 had to check the captions since I heard: "and war" 😅
Is this to explain seatle?
FYI the scholarship link is broken! You embedded the end parenthesis :)
Fixed! Thanks for the heads-up.
nice
That makes sense
Dynamics and chaos 🌀🌀
Bojler eladó!
This video is the one on this channel that screams Melbourne the most
What a coincidence!!! My neighborhood was literally drenched by a sudden downpour a couple hours ago!!!
It'll be awesome when our civilization gets to a point in existence where we can control the weather so we could know exactly what time it will rain and when the sun will shine. That will be mind-blowing to our generation.
HAARP