Hindenburg Research Goes After Carl Icahn
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- Опубликовано: 4 май 2023
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Hindenburg Research has gone after one of America's most famous investors, Carl Icahn, with another damning short seller report. Let's break it down.
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DISCLAIMER:
Richard does not have a position in ticker IEP or any mentioned stocks.
This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).
Happy Friday! This video is sponsored by Morning Brew - use the following link to sign up for their awesome newsletter: morningbrewdaily.com/theplainbagel
@@miketyson8933 Wow! Did your keyboard get stuck on caps? You were a truly great champion, "Mike", but no-one takes investing advice from a boxer. 😉
Got any tips on how I (a 15 YO who is capable of passing the series 7, 66, and SIE) can get a job/internship? Ideally I'd love to manage a portfolio, but I'd also want to be an investment advisor rep
Where can I go for internship opportunities?
Critics: You CAN'T do the same to an American corporation
Hindenburg: ICAHN
😂😂😂🎉🎉🎉
I don't get it?
As long as a short seller is telling the truth (there are some that don't) then its perfectly fine
Lol get out
Adani to ICAHN: hum bhi pele gaye tum bhi pele jaoge.
I do love that the Short Selling company named themselves Hindenburg. The need a competitor called Titanic.
Elon Musk: **Grinch smile**
Jakobshavn Research
is this really your first time hearing of Hindenburg?
that's not even the funniest short selling name
how about Muddy Waters or Citron Research
👀👀👀
Nah, its should be called Noah’s Ark Research Group 🔬.
Consistent dividend returns of 15% isn't just high, it's *suspiciously* high
it's unsustainably high.
Sounds like a crypto scam.
@@Seth9809 Sounds like an Ichan scam
Or it means the company has fallen in value for some reason. My mortgage is through a company with an 11% dividend and the reason is they routinely get sued for the garbage they've put homebuyers through. Ergo, they still pay the dividend, but the stock remains dirt cheap.
Credit card companies charge 29.9% from some people and they do pay…..isn’t it suspiciously high?!?
A lot of Hindenbergs points seem pretty simple, and based on publicly available information. It makes you wonder why no one else has raised these red flags on Icahn.
A lot of fish in the sea, and it takes a lot of work to piece the facts together.
I'm pretty sure I'm the only man in the world that is aware of a certain drug cartel I won't name.
Icahn is a formidable opponent to have.
@@siddharthbirdi Ha, that goon has a useless philosophy degree.
@@samsonsoturian6013 yes Samson, we’re sure you are…
@Samson Soturian Degrees don't matter that much in markets, ability does
These Hindenburg reports are always incredibly entertaining.
Give those guys a job at the FBI.
Honestly when they revealed that Nikola footage was just a car just rolling down a hill, not only was it a brutal takedown but it was pretty genius.
the stocks they cover always tend to crash and burn
@@mullerstephan Not when they get arrested for fraud
@@samsonsoturian6013 Icon is going to get arrested and spend the rest of his sorry life as an old inmate in federal prison.
I dont think you should stop covering short selling reports. They are usually very interesting.
Agreed! I think it's very interesting, entertaining and enlightening. I try to keep my news of this kind to Plain Bagel and Patrick Boyle, if he stops doing these, a lot of people like me will be less informed.
I agree! It’s really interesting and Richards Knowledge of the industry helps.
Plus I feel like them being covered by people who understand finance is important to not only keeping them honest but preventing wider panic, which can be more damaging than the actual problem.
Fun fact: Carl Ichan engaged in a lengthy and vicious spat with another investor named Ron Perelman over ownership of Marvel Studios in the late 1990's, which eventually led to Marvel being bought out from under both of them by Isaac Perlmutter, who is the man who sold Marvel to Disney and helped kickstart the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Carl Ichan is also the guy who's picture shows up when you type in the words "corporate raider" into Google and was at one point seriously considered to be Trump's Secretary of Treasury.
Stuff like this makes me realize how impactful some companies are despite not being well known
Love that you get by just by knowing your stuff Richard, no decoration or tricks for clicks, keep doing it !! You and Patrick Boyle be my faves by far
Would be nice to have them on a podcast together or something.
@@monkeeseemonkeedoo3745 Richard has an old video he done interviewing Patrick, was very good !!
@@monkeeseemonkeedoo3745 oh that would be too wonderful, now that you mention it. Just regular, normal finance information with dry wit! A girl can dream!
I like Ben Felix more.
@@Dreamer38607 Honestly never heard of him
1:48 "I don't even want to continue covering short reports from Hindenburg". You can pinpoint the exact moment my heart breaks in two
Hindenburg calling something “inflated” is never not funny.
Icahn deserves every attack.
@Richard Jackman yeah but he’ll be remembered as fraud punk and that’ll shatter his massive ego. Money and ego is all that drive vermin like Icahn
You know, companies like Hindenburg actually give me hope in the market's ability to self correct over time.
They make money by making the markets more efficient.
@@samsonsoturian6013 it seems we must stan
@@samsonsoturian6013 as long as they report the truth, nothing of value is lost and everyone else benefits
Icahn +30% on Friday. Dividend affirmed - so Hindenburg is wrong for now
@@go4384 (stock numbers don't change whether something is a ponzi scheme)
I feel like you covering short seller reports is both entertaining and more importantly, informative. Them being covered by people who understand finance not only helps keep them honest but helps limit wider panic, which can be more damaging than the actual problem in the world of finance.
Richard I need you to know that whether you know it or not I direct all of my MMA students to your channel, understanding money is a CRITICAL skill for men, and it can make or break their lives...All that to say thank you, and my students can not afford to pay as all of them are poor, but we will watch and learn from your future videos...That is a very long way of saying thank you...
I'm enjoying these reports, so don't feel like you have to stop doing them unless you're really unhappy continuing. They're super informative and I appreciate having somewhere to go that actually covers this stuff in a neutral, unbiased way. It's super rare for a RUclips channel to explain an event or company without hysterically trying to get me to buy, sell, and/or short its stocks.
"Upon losing millions of dollars as a stockbroker"
I can’t call my office they’ll kill me!
I can’t call my clients they’ll kill themselves! -Phoebe Buffay
The joke was same it actually made me laugh. 10 seconds later, still laughing.
You could say it was Icahn-ic
Richard, I think we, your followers, also learn a lot from these short selling reports. So I think you should continue to cover them.
The disclaimer is still: "Richard does not have a position in any Adani companies.", probably a similar disclaimer about Icahn's enterprises should be added.
Whoops, thanks for pointing out!
Or maybe he DOES owns! (just kidding)
The biggest risk is Carl Icahn, himself. I was deciding if I should invest but didn't once I thought, if something happened to him, the company probably would crash. With Berkshire and Warren and Charlie, they have other younger people ready to take over running the company.
There likely is more to it than that, but he definitely is the brand and the face behind it. I think one of his children was behind his bet on Apple or Netflix according to one of the documentaries. Among this week's headlines though included Icahn purportedly having margin loans against his holdings. If so, that can quickly get dicey if things fall too hard. (The flip side is it could lead to later bargains from those depressed prices. In the real world of course, essentially nobody has perfect timing on catching a falling knife.)
Brett Icahn would take over if anything
15% yield? Don't tell me the Icahns were into crypto also! Also, we need to remember that Madoff offered similar yearly yields.
Thank you for covering this richard! Im really interested in hearing yout analysis on it
Short selling is not actually bad. When a short position is closed, that's a "buying" activity.
I’ve had IEP stock for years and that 13-18% dividend has been awesome. But here comes the other shoe lol
Hope you got out or atleast had some protective puts
Don’t worry, it’s easily a $200 stock after it break ATH.
IEP was paying $2 each quarter even during Covid….since October 2013 their dividends always rise
If you bought on the dip couple days ago - it’s 25%+ ROI…..risky? But last 4 years they did pay the dividends - 4 more years and you get back what you invest and start new cycle
@@irinab7524 I bought the dip. Seeing the gain yesterday was fun.
For anybody who might be interested. Richard recommended a book called "Easy Prey Investors" a while back, and while it's tailored to a slightly different accounting convention (IFRS, not U.S. GAAP) and the Canadian legal environment generally, there are a lot of transferable lessons in that book.
I appreciate that you cover stuff like this, you’re one of the few people I trust in this space so thank you for reviewing this.
Please please please, continue to make videos about Hindenburg. They do seem to be right a large percentage of the time. However, I do not have the expertise to judge their claims. Many Thanks.
Lol my favorite was the gravity truck
0:39 I’m a father and I approve of this joke
I learn something every time I watch your channel. Thank you.
Hindenburgs usually pretty on point with this stuff
They have to be. They'd be sued into the ground if they weren't.
@@somethinglikethat2176 They get sued regardless, but they don't care. This is why cops have qualified immunity
Keep doing the Hindenburg stuff as well, it's good and informative content.
keep covering them, keep us inform.
Looks like an epic battle ; superbly explained, thanks
Hindenburg - the new sheriff in town. About the only short seller that uses their powers for good. ( and get rich doing it)
I agree with your comment’s points. However I’m sorry my “OCD” cannot be restrained: the word in this case is: their.
@@briandeschene8424 the laziness that comes with auto suggest at 4 in the morning.
Dude the first minute, you’re on fire with these jokes 🔥
I will say this channel is really great for information, especially for new investors. Though it’s Canadian, so a bit different then US, but also very similar, and this channel teaches very well and basic very easy to understand great work truly .
@The Plain Bagel;
Hi Richard, Kudos to your effort and hard work to provide such valuable information on financial literacy. Highly appreciated.
I would request you to create some videos on Insurance. How a millennial should choose an insurance policy (Death, Sickness), what is the basic due diligence before buying insurance, what are the associated risk factors to consider, etc.
Thanks in advance.
I use to work for CVR Energy. The security department I worked for was junk, but those jerks worked there long before Icaln bought it. It was just a busy refinery in a non-descript town.
IEP is not a straight forward valuation. Hindenburg's attempt to value the company based on NAV or comparing it to other hedge funds that use wildly different strategies (Pershing) is a mistake when it comes to valuation - basically a valuation crime. IEP should be valued based on: 1) likelihood of Icahn continuing to use IEP as a source of capital going forward (it is effectively Icahn's way to pull forward capital and allow him to smooth out his fundraising), 2) Icahn's reputation, 3) whether he can continue to pull rabbits out of his hat - the biggest weakness of IEP is that you're relying on Icahn's good will. However, Icahn's incentives are in fact aligned mostly with unitholders of IEP in the sense that Icahn can't simply abandon the dividend and tank IEP's share price - that kills Icahn's reputation + ability to fund his future acquisitions. In this sense, IEP is better aligned with unit holders than other hedge funds like Ackman's Pershing Square (see Bill Ackman's SPAC as an example of misaligned incentives).
Icahn himself makes something like 2% AUM/15-20% profit when IEP makes money. If he let's IEP die, he loses that source of money. As Patrick Boyle points out in his video - IEP's incentives are structured so that Icahn would be the bag holder if things go poorly.
TLDR: if you believe in Icahn, IEP is a good bet. If you don't believe in Icahn, IEP is a bad bet. Shorting IEP is a fool's errand because Icahn owns most of the float so the "market price" of IEP is whatever Icahn wants. Hindenburg's report saw IEP shares fall by almost 50% (50s to 28 or something) but per Bloomberg and Yahoo Shortsellers only made $9 million because everyone is scared that Icahn could squeeze the shorts out.
What did we learn from Hindenburg's report? That Icahn's personal holdings of IEP can survive a drop to $28 (he didn't get margin called). That's pretty useful information.
Very well said!!!
I am learning more about Icahn's IEP this week, which will help me as an amateur investor. I was down a total of $77K after two days of the free fall of IEP this week (I finally sold at $37 per share)- most I have every lost in my investments. Would have been $110K if I would have held to the bottom of $30 per share. Bought back in at an average of $33 (not as heavily as I was in before) but I made $16K back yesterday.
Sounds bad right?? But, I have made $120K in dividends (really distributed units) over the last three years - so still up overall.
From what I see, Icahn allows new shares to be sold, not for a Ponzi scheme, but to keep the share price down - if no new shares offered, new investors would drive share price through the roof - then the dividend percentage would drop - and the only winners would be original share holds once it hits market price.
I think Icahn does it this way, in lieu of not dividend like Berkshire, because he is a corporate raider. I mean look at what Berkshire price is - $323 per share!! Big difference is that Berkshire is not shorting companies - they just own - the entire scheme that Icahn has is actually brilliant - and has made many for his limited partners like me, a ton of money!! I think Icahn actually makes much more than 15% with this set up - so giving limited partners like me 15% is a great deal.
@@mikecoughlin9437 I think that IEP is in fact a tool for evading taxes rather than a ponzi scheme, as it was a rather obscure stock rather than a meme/hype stock before Hindenburg brought it into public view.
Finance is not my wheelhouse but your channel and explanations have greatly improved my understanding of the topic. Thank you and keep up the great job!!
Thanks for the video Richard. Until the next one, stay safe 😀
There is a double standard in mainstream thinking against their in group, so why would people think they would go unduly hard against an Indian firm?
It seemed a transparent deflection to me. As the old saying goes "if the law is on your side, pound the law. If the facts are on your side pound the facts. If neither are on your side pound the table."
Well liberal power estentially. Indian liberals and their leftists(communists) and islamists back are on back foot for last 8 years they used their access and friendship in west for reinforcements.
@TheThreatenedSwan because patriotism
It is the state sponsored hate mob called bjp party IT CELL that spreads this nonsense. They equate every criticism of adani ,a modi sidemen crony stooge with the criticism of India . Like they say nationalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel
Wow 15% dividend pretty impressive. That is much higher than utilities single digit % with a 60-70% payout ratio target for most of the industry.
A video idea would be holding companies overview. Contrasting the advantages they have vs trading at a discount
The last line of this piece killed me. I am dead. Someone else is writing this on my behalf. RIP me.
Financial adviser sarcasm hits different 😂
thanks for the information mate!
My understanding was they went after a few foreign companies or those tied strongly to foreign companies because it was specifically difficult to get accurate information on them.
Excellent clear analysis. Great job!
So in essence , a corporate raider got corporate raided?
Forget Icahn, I would love to see Jeffries take the tumble it deserves.
I never heard of them before this, but a google search shows that for a 6 billion dollar company they sure pay a lot in fines and lawsuits.
This is about to be an ICAHNic situation! Eh? Eh? Okay, I'll stop...
Even as a Canadian I approve of this comment, eh?
your deadpan delivery always gets me hahaha
You might want to consider covering LUMN and the ongoing investigation / lawsuit against them regarding possible manipulation. Same with the regional banks.
I like your Hindenburg videos best, don’t stop
Hindenburg also recently went after jack dorsey’s square so they definitely aren’t targeting a specific area. loved the fun vibes of the video btw. keep ‘em comin mr coffin
best finance youtuber out there. if i was a teacher id make my students watch every plain bagel
The fact that it needed Hindenburg to say the thoroughly obvious just shows how terrifyingly under-analyzed the stock market is.
Given a day with their filings, I could have told you that that is a scam (or just a really bad way to buy fame).
How many others like this (or worse?) are there, where all the shit is obvious in mandatory submissions, yet nobody actually bothers to read them, instead mindlessly pouring billions into those vehicles?
After 2008, I kinda assumed most evaluations were questionable if not completely divorced from reality. I mean you expect one or a few to get things wrong (even massively so). But for an entire market segment...
I suspect these holdings are par for pump and dump schemes, where you can borrow against inflated valuations to leverage yourself, and sell before anyone looks too closely.
Of course there is the complimentary ALL IS DOOM side of the coin, where the only safe vehicle is is gold backed NFT bitcoins.
"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Gary Shilling.
This reflects the issue really well. The market is practically _never_ rational, but you can't counter bet against them easily as a small investor. It does need something else that's huge to have the mass to oppose them and get noticed.
Melvin Capital
Good video as usual ! (Idk if it’s en error in the description but it says « richard does not have a position in any adani companies » shouldnt it be icahn in this case ?)
Just fixed it, thanks for highlighting!
With respect to issuing new shares, many companies need to do this, like REITs for example, in order to expand their AUM.
However, the new shares bring in additiona income orl capital. ,i.e. they are accretive.
Hopefully, they cover the cost of the new shares , and perhaps even more so that existing shareholders benefit as well.
Dividend: 15% per year
Share dilution: 15% per year
....
No way, picked out your accent on the words "they are at it again" and "they got a lot of flak last time" and found out your in Ottawa! No fucking wonder I recognize it! Crazy to think someone I watch online is just chilling somewhere in my city!
Hi, asking here since you moved the one on credit unions to the private section right after premiering. The video was shorter than i hoped to. I was surprised you didn't mention the fact that in Canada, some of the best rates are offered not by banks, but by (mainly online) Credit Unions (Achieva, etc). But are these as safe as regular cdn banks? Again regarding the options available to canadians, how do these CUs compare to the big 6? Also, since it's so omnipresent in my province: Is Desjardins a C.U.,, a federation of local CUs, or an hybrid between bank and CU? These are interesting questions you might consider to answer in a future video:). Ty for all your good stuff anyway.
Hindenburg would love to be known as the dart that punctured Icahn's Iconic reputation.
Until then... Stay safe out there!
Is there any tool for tracking the moves of a specific investor? It'd be quite interesting to get a ping whenever Hindenburg makes a short sell...
Fin viz maybe. I’m not sure if they have an email notification feature, but you can see buy and sell activities by investor.
Would love to hear your opinion on the proposed changes to franking credits in Australia.
I'm predicting this to be juicy .
Hi,
your videos are great.
Couldn't have happened to a nicer fellow!
Those opening jokes were hilariously bad. Well done.
I read somewhere Icahn was the inspiration for Gordon Gecko in the 80s Wallstreet
If you are going to take on Icahn, you better be right. Beyond right. He’s a very aggressive monster, ask Bill Ackmann.
Thank you
(before watching)
😮 oh shit!
That was my reaction when i first saw the news
OK, my favorite analyst on RUclips, coffee & donut, talk to me
Alright, “Bet” 💀
The takeaway from all of this: just because Icahn, doesn't mean I should 🤔
Does holding a 85% stake mean they can funnel 100% of the dividends to 15% of the people and so have a book dividend rate like 6 times higher than they're actually earning, and are just pumping out more share to themselves to pay the other 85%? o.o
Haha that’s a great question!
Hello Richard,
On the contrary, I'd love to see you cover short-sellers' reports - I think the level of insight needed to read between the lines and from different filings and documents to formulate such reports is quite high; it is probably not something somebody with a non-financial background would easily grasp without opening Google 1,000 times (who's looking at me? Don't look at me! Okay fine, I did that).
Another thing I'm just curious about: if a short-seller publishes a report about a stock it has shorted, obviously that will drive the stock price down, thus making the short a self-fulfilling prophecy. What's the legal guidance on these reports? They seem like an inherent market manipulation, but obviously publishing it suggests the content has been vetted to minimise legal liability.
I dont like that you call the show the plain bagel. I like to think that *you* are the plain bagel so thats what im gonna continue doing. Anyway, great video Mr Bagel
What's the problem with the name
@@tomlxyz headcanon
Please do a video on the current debt ceiling crisis and it’s affects on Treasuries as well as economy. Would like to see your perspective on the likelihood of it happening as it would be devastating
I suspect that Bill ackman is shorting the stock, and laughs orgasmekly
I think Richards hesitation to make video's on short selling claims is just him not wanting to be hindenbergs salesman.
Great video!
A short selling firm shorting a firm with a net short position.
Although I do like their work, you should look at some of the other calls, some that didn't end up working out.
I once started systematically going through Andrew Left's shorts but never finished. Over 90% of the companies either paid fines or went defunct. That doesn't mean they made money, but it's easy to find crooks if you're willing to look.
A debt recycling strategic fails as soon as the carrusell isnt as liquide anymore and significantly slows its spin aka flipping of assets.
If earnings depends mainly on flipping assets, its in danger if the players become to defensive.
Just found out my favourite finance RUclipsr is also a fellow Canuck!
I personally really appreciate these Hindenburg videos. Their reports are so long it’s nice to have someone summarize.
Shock horror. A Herbalife bull running his own pyramid scheme *allegedly*
Icahn joke made me cackle!
I've never been to a video 7 sec after upload before...
yo
Where's my "be safe out there??" 🥺
Your briefs are like legal advice briefs: can't find any actionable recommendation in it, except to wait and see.
Really earned that icon joke. Cheers
Could there be any realistic justification for the 9x markup of the meat packing assets?
Bill Ackman is a legend. Herbalife failing…Icahn with Ponzi allegations. IT’s “Confidence Game” part 2.
I'm guessing hindenburg had a large short position before they published. Did Icahn respond? Seems pretty incriminating
I respect Hindenburg.
Great learning opportunity to read over their analysis and also their last CashApp hiphop video montage was hilarious
You trust a analysis company named Hindenburg? You gonna trust one named Titanic too?
@@Kilometers_KPH Wow, how did you misread 'respect' with 'trust'? Are you one of those "Trust in GME/AMC"
Do they mean the same thing? Sorry, English is not primary language so please elaborate
@@sipwhitemocha Respect has a more positive connotation than Trust.
Icahn doing suspicious//questionable stuff?
:Shocked_pikachu_face:
No one moving money in the tens of billions is clean, make no mistake :)
Can you refer me to what exactly he did to make you suspicious?