Credit Suisse - 2022's Latest 'Lehman Brothers Moment'
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- Опубликовано: 6 окт 2022
- Social media has blown up with speculations that Credit Suisse is due for a Lehman Brothers-style collapse; is there any merit to those claims?
DISCLAIMER: I do not hold a position in Credit Suisse.
This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).
I think it's an absolute meme that one of the chairmen of Credit Suisse has the last name Lehman.
We are in a simulation. I'm amazed the entire chair aren't brothers with that last name lol
@@icecoldchilipreppers is not believing we are in a simulation atheistic? THAT is interesting too
Lehmann is a very common name in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. It´s like a Smith in the US or something
@@icecoldchilipreppers maybe the real brothers are the bailouts they found along the way🥲
We found him, the other Lehman brother
Your channel is such a rarity in the economics/investment part of youtube because:
- You don't tell people what to do.
- You don't tell people what to believe.
- You don't presume to know everything.
And for this I thank you, because It feels that all ancient era street preachers got reincarnated into investment channel youtubers and crypto bros.
you can tell he is quality because there are way less spam/scams in the comment section
It feels like you are listening to you friend who works in the finance space and who gives you a unbiased report of what’s going on
Yes indeed. Quite refreshing.
It is my supreme pleasure to bring your comment to 666 likes 🤙 Hail Satan 🙏
like a plain bagel - do whatever you want with it.
That moment when he mentions regional banks are subject to less stringent regulations than major ones and can take more risk...
...yeah that part aged very well
Financial scandals just won't be the same without Credit Suisse 😥
this will age well in a couple of days
I love how in the past ten months, whenever the guys over at r/WallStreetBets were going apeshit and I was like "what the hell is it now?", 'round about 72 hours later you came up with a video saying "so it's nowhere near as messed up as you hear online, but it's fascinating, here's what's happened". Absolute delight mate, keep it up!
"If you've heard of Credit Suisse before and live outside of Switzerland, it's probably been for mostly bad reasons."
To be fair, I live in Switzerland and when I hear about CS, it's usually for the same bad reasons lol.
Richard is the voice of reason as usual.
The counterpart to me being the voice of aggression
@@rogehmarbi at least it's not insanity
5 months later it turns not the best for Credit Suisse.
@@abrvalg321 nah, they are fine.
@@midimusicforever They're literally no longer a company lol
I'd love to see an update to this. Thank you for the great info.
Credit Suisse reminds me of the Hans Solo line "Uh, we had a slight ... malfunction, but uh... everything's perfectly all right now. We're fine. We're all fine here now, thank you. How are you"?
I think that these videos of your take on the finance and economics events are way better than any MBA or a master degree for people, especially for those who don't have a background in economics/finance like an engineers or doctors. I profoundly appreciate these videos and your time, in fact for each video I pull out a pen and paper I start to write the key points that you're talking about. Please keep up the good work.
When the video legitimately ages well
I thought the title was a typo, until I realised this was the algorithm blowing this up a year later! Credit Suisse still can't seem to keep their hands clean.
Thanks for explaining this in a way I could understand. I appreciate it! I am also grateful that you went into detail on the history of the bank without glossing over the trouble it has been known to have in the past.
A LOT of peeps waiting for this one to drop. Plz make things less crazy and more boring.
You are the king at that! In a good way!
Sorry, the banking cartels and nuts of Wall Street since the 80's made banking outright insolvent nightmare insane.
This child, just inherited a financial stupidity that is even more insane than the stupidity of the 1920's and prior in human history.
All you're asking him to do is tell you a bed time story while the house of cards comes crashing in on this ponzi scheme... oh, and many of these banks, like the ones in the USA have a banking cartel with access to their national debt machine to monetize their insolvent junk debts they sold and made a massive killing... which results in all sorts of inflation... unless you have a race to the bottom deflationary economy whereby aggregate demand is pushed down as the most tyrannized and/or destitute labor... but once that doesn't work... you have normal labor market with an actual labor quantity supply to demand curve... lights out. Inflation hits hard... I mean it's hitting in a colonial labor or slave labor or feudalistic labor system too... it just reveals itself as more quintiles become impoverished over time.
In the case of normal labor supply non colonial/empire/salve/feudal etc. you get massive inflation that makes most quintiles besides perhaps the top 10% at least not as bad off.
Oh, you wanted that bed time story.
I'm sorry.
I go to the gym at the Nuffield Health in the Credit Suisse building in Canary Wharf; everyone there seems really shook
Just wanted to commend to say how much I appreciate these videos! For someone like me to understand this stuff normally wouldnt be possible. Keep up the excellent quality!!
^ What they said
Great stuff!! Thank you!!
2022...the year of the weekly 'Lehman Brothers Moment'.
When are you actually going to start talking about bagels ?
Great content! I worked to implement Basel III in financial institutions here in Brazil and you're short explanation was great!
This dude is a fucking Wizard 🧙♀️
general rule of thumb though, is that social media itself can actually be accredited for the next financial crisis when it happens. Because of the snowball effect. If say several people on facebook mention something, a dozen more pick this up on twitter, this gets thrown on tiktok or podcasts, ends up as the content of a lot of youtube videos, gains traction in popular media and so forth, it creates a mass hysteria or at least mass tension which actually CAN lead to or be the cause OF a company collapsing, since fear is a motivator and fear makes people turn away from the object of said fear.
well not quite social media, but fund managers (peter thiel) did create this snowball effect now. I guess you called it.
This is by FAR the best, most clearly stated, informed and honest video I've seen on credit suisse on ANY form of media. Including cnn, cnbc, and all the other RUclipsrs. Thank you plain bagel for remaining awesome
Age like fine wine
Watching this after the UBS buy out of this bank as of 21/03/2023... I wonder if this could be the next banking apocalypse
I only recently started following financial channels and I simply have to echo what everyone else is saying: You are a voice of reason in a space where fear mongering is used to rack up views and sell agendas. Thanks for your clear and calm explanations, I hope to learn lots more from you 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Thanks for the update. Love the news type content from an extremely unbiased source
Thanks for being an informative content creator! Would love some more explanation of the implications of those concepts you introduced. You went through them just a little too quickly and moved on before I could understand the basics (just got some vague impression but not enough to have any conclusions/thoughts).
Wow, I am amazed that you are able to decipher so much out from the financial statements.
Great work, thanks a lot.
He is a certified financial analyst you know… 🙄
Thx a lot! Always a pleasure to watch your videos. They are both understandable and helpful :)
Aged like fine wine 🍷
Glad to get your voice on this matter. Seeing so much Internet panic and doomsday comparisons to 08.
Because there's plenty of multi decade "once in a lifetime" indicators signalling this...
This is why I love this channel. Facts and engaging.
Waiting for your video on what is happening now
Another great video! Also want to add that your channel is the best financial channel in my opinion. I even turn off adblocker when I watch your videos lol. Cheers!
if the people in charge have to tell you repeatedly that everything is fine, things probably aren't.
They will get bailed our regarless how bad they are tho.
@@tavirosu25 worse, the bailouts are often loans. the money leaves the budget, and then get repayed back to government officials personally, and the bank customers pay the difference.
They are fine because they will get bailed out with our tax money once they fail so technically they are still fine
Its not just that they said they were fine, its that LEMAN BROTHERS also said they were fine, right before we found out they were NOT fine. Your bank should NEVER have to actually send you a message saying they are fine, as that is a HUGE warning sign.
Well they were fine, then they were not fine..... Fine is sort of subjective.
@@duanejackson6718 If the situation is that fluid, then they are by definition 'not fine', and thus no message should go out, unless they can guaranty it, and the clearly cannot.
Lehman was 600 billion in assets. deutsche bank and credit Suisse is combined value of 2.5 trillion. If they go under it would be catastrophic. The fed and governments have previously given them money in the form of buyouts simply to keep these events from happening. In return the bank stays alive, creates jobs and is able to pay back taxes which is way above the buyouts.
So if u ask me…I think they will survive.
$2.5 trillion is their assets under management, not assets.
Literally watching this standing in front of a credit swiss in Switzerland
Always putting things into perspective. Thank you!
This is a well put explanation, thank you man. Always been a long term subscriber and regular viewer. You cleared all my doubts and actually did confirm my doubts on liquidity, cet1 and safe guarding rules. This was perfectly put, well done.
who's here today max short ?
I am so grateful that people like you take the time to explain this type of situations and events, in a way that laymen will understand. Disinformation and fearmongering, both on the internat and in daily life, are extremely destructive. Every person who's eyes are opened to the facts (hopefully) means one less misguided vote during elections. As an Economist, I try to do the same on Reddit and my day to day interactions with people, and even though I'm met with a lot of frustration, misinformation, and sometimes hate, I've noticed people are actually in dire need of a nuanced explanation. It may not always stick right away, but it does plant a seed, and insulate people a tiny bit better from populists and other bad actors.
I like it. Plain speaking, on the nose without being sensational, and - as it turns out - very accurate. Definitely worth a subscription.
I remember, since I was a kid, hearing people refer to putting their $ into "a Swiss bank account" because of their secrecy policy. I just assumed that's what all rich/shady/don't wanna pay taxes people did, lol.
A lot of them did. These days there are more / other accessible havens, of course.
I find it very amusing that a lot of RUclips financial channels that hold the Plain Bagel and Patrick Boyle in high regard tend to sensationalize the doomsday scenarios in their videos.
D
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Fear gets clicks.
I mean, everything is failing at the same time. Doom is in the forecast
Patrick Boyle couldn't manage a piggy bank. Absolute moron.
@@bobsands3557 Maybe you should tell his clients. I'm sure they'd like to know your opinion.
I love it when the Manger of my bank calls me on Saturday morning to tell me everything is fine 🙂
I'm clicking like here instead of any newspaper. Good succinct review. It depresses me that so many other publications will make money from portraying this in a different fashion.
Great work Bagel! Thanks for looking into this.
Wow Credit Suisse, is really in the big leagues of too big to collapse. Nice video. Keep up the good work.
I watched a couple of docos on Credit Suisse yesterday; you'd swear they were in worse shape than Lehman brothers. The youtube algo sent me this and it was refreshing to say the least.
Subscribed.
dude you are awesome. never change! your objectivity is what makes me enjoy these videos. good work man!
The problem with Credit Suisse is those swaps and derivatives. If they hold alot more toxic hidden positions, then it doesn't matter how pretty their balance sheet looks.
This ^
No. The real problem is terrible, weak management for years and years. The knock on impact of that is way too long to list here but it is a total shambles.
It always matters how pretty a balance sheet looks
@@VictorChavesVVBCit depends
@@kirilmihaylov1934 it always depends
Best finance channel in RUclips. Congrats mate!
Great analysis comparing actual balance sheets and not just the event.
I dont understand anything about the finantual market but i like how clear and cut you are with the information
All you need to understand that it is smoke and mirrors, they are parasites, they add no value because they operate on margin/debt. When the margin call come in YOU pay those calls via government bailouts, unless they cheat their customers out of enough money to survive their risk exposure
Well done summary. Cautionary tale on listening to rumors about market strategy. Fair treatment of just how messed up Credit Suisse is, but even so, its not Lehman Brothers.
What an excellent video! Thank you so much!!!❤
What I wanna know is where do these traders get those CDS from? Credit Suisse itself? Because that would mean if Credit Suisse goes down, there won't be payout, just like what happened to Brownfield fund when Bear Stearns went to 0 in the movie The Big Short.
Wild that the CEO said they have strong liquidity, but turned around and sold a hotel just to keep from being broke
the hotel was liquid bro
Do you know what you are talking about? I don't think you understand economics. Selling assets IS liquidity.
@@babblingidiot7903 I assume you dont see anything wrong with a person assuring everyone he has plenty of cash, while seeing him carrying things into a pawn shop.
nevermind name checks out
They don't need to do that. The Swiss money market could have solved that issue with ease. Probably just don't like the sport of the Hotel.
Thanks, I've been waiting for 4 days for this video.
Thanks! I really needed this video! Deutsche Bank is also in the spotlight for the same reasons, will you do a video about it?
They irony of credit Suisse being credit sus, due to a lack of credit sustainability.
Is credit sweet.
Imagine enimem somehow making this comment into a few bars...
Missing from the picture of the CEO is the golden parachute he's been weaving between phone calls to investors.
No major network did such a good job on Credit Suisse. Tks
Thanks for the "money and banking" college course refresher. Cheers!
Thank you, Richard!
Self-fullfilling prophecy playing out in March 2023.
Great info. Made me look at the film differently. Hoping you do the movie Trading Places, if you haven't already
Love the content. I'm no editing expert but it seems like the audio in this video starts to get weird at the 8 min 15 sec mark, thought you might like to know.
Should be fixed!
Great educational video. Thanks for such a video.
love from India love your content
You are a true hero and savior!
Love your channel! Can we get an update on the recent events at this bank?
Great video - really balanced ans informative! Thanks for sharing
just looked them up and apparently one of their top shareholders liquidated their stake fully
Great video, thank you!!!
@ThePlainBagel
I think you are missing a few key points in this explanation. For example, prior to the Lehman brother's collapse, what would their CET1 ratio have been for comparison? As someone not intimately familiar with this space, simply telling me what the minimum requirement is and what they are currently at is a fairly weak litmus test in my opinion - I lack the other half of the information to compare that to.
Additionally, while there is a minimum requirement that was implemented, was this a good minimum value to use? Was it just some random number that someone hit on a dart board? How safe can one plausibly feel when a bank is above that minimum value?
A further question, if a bank simply trades money around with other sub holdings in a similar way to how many large Asian conglomerates operate, is there a way to track the true value? If there's only 100 million dollars split between 50 banks, but they keep trading it between each other and that 100 million number shows up on each of their books as 100 million of their own cash, and thus zero risk, raising their CET1 ratio, would such a thing be caught?
For a nano second I thought “Maybe Credit Suisse has been over sold?” Maybe it’s a swing trade opportunity?
Then I remembered it’s corrupt company culture and the conga line of suck holes that have managed it and that idea went straight in the shredder.
Lehman was "oversold" as well just before they collapsed. lol
Thanks for explaining this!
Hey @plainbagel/Richard....as usual, you have come up with facts without glossing it with recommendations. May I ask the value of the same numbers at the beginning of the year please? CET1, Liquidity coverage ratio and similar? Thanks
Very good rational analysis. Thank you .
Happy to have found this channel. Yay for You Tube! Subb'd.
Looks like we need another Credit Suisse video thanks to what was reported recently.
Helped plenty.
Thank you
More relevant than ever
very deep analysis. Thanks.
Please try to do a piece on the Eurodollar, shadow banking, private banking ledger, Cayman Islands, and collaboration between reserve banks, as it relates to libor, sopr, sef, basil iii, and dod frank. That would also be extremely interesting.
That word salad can be connected in one piece only on SuperStonk
Great show buddy
Credit Suisse, a 167-year-old bank, no longer exists. Just like that, it's gone forever.
Great video, I subbed and liked. I will say the last 5min could have been cut out.
Well you called it man!
5 months later
What's the difference between asset management and wealth management?
Very helpful video
Great explanation. Thank You!!
@textmeii3012 sup
Freaky, I'm wearing that exact shirt as I'm watching this.
Great analysis but one thing I would like to know is why the CDS spread widened, all you've done really is highlight why credit suisse is actually not comparable to lehmann brothers but not speculated on why the markets have priced the spreads.
Institutional Speculators know more than common retail trader/investor.
@@sadikinjeryon9082 I understand that to be the case which is why I was hoping that the plain Bagel might be able to have some insight into what specific criteria institutional investors or their underwriters were looking at in order to draw the conclusions that they have.
@@deepmind3996 . Good question, but I doubt you'll ever get that kind of technical information in youtube channels.
@@deepmind3996 IMO considering the pile of skeletons that has been revealed for the past two years, including but not limited to: Greensill, Archegros, the leaked accounts, and possible precedent for Swiss government to prosecute bankers on ground of negligence; it make sense that those additional risk would be priced in eventually.
Not to mention that CS also one of the few big names that focused on building their portfolio internationally. Given current economic outlook and the global scale of it, it's rather detrimental for them since their risk exposure is hard to model.
Autorities and rating agencies said everything was fine right up until the 2008 finacial crisis.
Hey Richard, 8:30 duplciates about a 7-second segment of the video