This lady is nothing short of brilliant, and yet explains everything so even a dummy like me can follow with ease. So impressed with her and these podcasts. Thank you!
'The Macro Mind' aka Lynn Alden. Always impressive and always so modest. Peter is a fantastic interviewer and Liz is so well-researched! Love how these two interact.
Peter - it is awesome when you have Lyn Alden as a guest. She constantly helps me to ggrow and develop. Changes my mindset and makes me aware of the fact the more I learn, the more I need to learn. Thank you for having great guests. You're also a wonderful interviewer. Keep up your hard work. I appreciate it.
I said this to myself the other day: "whatever you may think about crypto...The crypto people are not only the hardest thinking people around, they're the only thinking people around". This channel is living proof.
You bring out the best in her, and thats a pretty damm big deal as lyn can tie so many things together in a few sentences in a way that is so incredibly logical relatable and comprehensible touching on and clarifying so many topics factors and inter relationships into clarity Btw, Lyn the reasonably personal bit you shared about your parents is very helpful towards understanding your lens of a world view , so thanks for that.
Thanks for the show ! I'm reading a book: The Dawn of Everything, A new history of Humanity. Talks about different societies throughout time and how inequality originates
It is actually about stochastic: B.M. Boghosian, M. Johnson, and J.A. Marcq, “An H theorem for Boltzmann’s equation for the yard-sale model of asset exchange,” Journal of Statistical Physics 161 (2015) 1339-1350 Bruce M. Boghosian, Adrian Devitt-Lee, Merek Johnson, Jeremy A. Marcq, Hongyan Wang Oligarchy as a Phase Transition: The effect of wealth-attained advantage in a Fokker-Planck description of asset exchange. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 476, 2017, Pages 15-37, ISSN 0378-437 Jie Li, Bruce M. Boghosian, Chengli Li, The Affine Wealth Model: An agent-based model of asset exchange that allows for negative-wealth agents and its empirical validation, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 516, 2019, Pages 423-442, ISSN 0378-4371
Regarding 'median male income: I don't understand why no one seems to see it. At one time, a married man whose wife stayed home could earn enough to save and buy a house and raise a family on his one income. So what changed? When women started working full time on a regular basis, and they got married, those 2-income couples could outbid single income couples for houses, so sellers raised prices. Of course housing prices are higher now - you have two incomes to support every purchase, and sellers aren't going to keep prices low to be nice. When you change inputs, you're going to change outputs - it's not difficult.
I haven’t watched it so maybe I’m jumping the gun but for the title itself… Isn’t it obvious? Human nature and competition? Is there a single country where wealth inequality doesn’t exist?
there is the multiplier & hoarding effects in economics theory, but there is also a corruption or self interested actions multiplier that goes with control and authority. At least if we had a free market, the ones who work the hardest will get ahead, today we have a system where only the bffs of the ones with power can get ahead because they get free money...no one else can compete p.s. Lyn rules
The dollar should become the like bitcoin in the US World Reserve cryptocurrency with a builtin micro transaction fee to treasury. This model builds a solid basis for price stability.
Income and wealth inequalities are a GOOD thing. More productive people with rare abilities SHOULD benefit financially from their abilities - they're the creators in our economy. It's called incentives, folks. When Elon becomes a dollar richer, I don't become a dollar poorer - Elon is not my landlord, and I don't live and work on his farm. Rich people becoming richer does not result from poor people becoming poorer - the poor don't have enough money to make others rich. In any case, while 'income inequality is increasing,' poor people are living like the royalty of the past. How many urban poor have no running water? How many have no bathtub at home? In my grandparent's lifetime, apartments in Boston USA without bathtubs were not uncommon. Inequality is not a problem - real levels of poverty are.
Peter is starting to see some of the cracks in his right-leaning beliefs; Lyn's ever-astute analysis of econ will slowly nudge him towards a slightly more progressive mindset.
Ehhh listen to that part again. Lynn doesn’t think taxing only the rich more is a solution but taxing everyone fairly - more like a flat tax that doesn’t let some slip through the cracks without paying taxes at all using loop holes - which is a belief held by many leaning conservative.
It allows us to have more interviews, otherwise they would have to fly to meet each other and that’s a huge ordeal. This way we get more content. It’s so much more efficient it’s insane. But in person interviews are better
I am pleased that Lyn has finally exposed the myth of Modern Monetary Theory in that it is totally dependent on a low cost supply of resources and particularly energy. The world is already has declining resources and particularly energy. In February of 2001 I wrote: The level of debt in western countries and around the world is high. Escalating oil and energy prices will cause economic downturns and recessions as is current in 2001. As both debt and the price of oil and energy increase through this decade it will cause an economic recession. I believe some time 2011-2015 but very possibly much sooner. An oil price shock and a following oil supply crunch are coming. Some modellers say as early as 2003, some say not till after 2020. CAMWEST - Why Are We Still Building Roads? In October 2005 I wrote: From research and modelling I estimate that oil will reach US$150/barrel in 2008 and at that price will cause a recession. CAMWEST - Peak Oil: Where are fuel prices going? It is now history that the September 11 2001 terrorist attack and subsequent invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq exacerbated both global debt and global oil consumption. And that the combination of debt and an oil price of US$147/barrel caused the GFC. The global situation has not improved from that time. Advances in petroleum extraction technology has allowed increased production but at the expense of shorter life of oil wells. The supply crunch for oil and gas is fast approaching with coal to closely follow. Economics is the study of the use of partially implemented, untested economic theories to transfer the wealth from the people into the hands of a few through the depletion of the planets limited resources to fill perceived needs and wants. Science measures with absolute units to test theories and hypothesises to analysis data, show trends and relationships and make meaningful projections. Unfortunately economics does not have any absolute units with which to measure; analogous to measuring length with an elastic tape measure. Consequently no meaningful measurement, analysis or projections can be conducted. The unit of measure that economics should be using is the Joule. Nothing happens in any system; natural and especially human created without the expenditure of energy. The energy human society is using is rapidly increasing in energy cost to produce and deliver. Supply will meet the demand that has the ability to pay. But energy has a tight limit on its value. Due to the infrastructure and machinery needed to put energy to work the cost of energy can only ever be a small fraction of the value of the work that it will do. Once the cost of the energy nears 10% of the value of the work it will do it becomes uneconomic. In fact it could be said that monetary systems are a representation of energy expended and borrowed money is expending energy from the future. Currently global net debt is estimated at 400% of global GDP. Where is the energy going to come from to do the work to repay that debt? In short, it is not available. Currently 84% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels and only 16% of global energy is supplied by the total of all other low emissions technologies combined. Nearly 60% of global energy is supplied by petroleum; from methane (natural gas) natural gas liquids, and oil to bitumen. Petroleum (oil and natural gas) is approaching a supply crunch within this decade as demand continues to increase and production faces rapidly increasing challenges. Petroleum supplies; the feedstock and energy for petrochemicals/plastics, agricultural production and transport with limited alternatives. During World War 2 magnetic anomalies were recorded in the Atlantic Ocean and in other oceans. After the war the US Geologic Survey and the Shell oil company conducted research projects. The result was the tabling of a scientific paper in 1956 at an obscure scientific symposium in Hobart Tasmania. The publication provided evidence for the future Theory of Plate Tectonics, commonly known as continental drift, and evidence for the geological processes that form all fossil fuels. Marion King Hubbert was the head of Shell research at that time. Hubbert accurately predicted the peak of US oil production for 1970 and global peak of oil production for about 2000. Plate Tectonics is the geological mechanism for the formation of all fossil fuel deposits and many ore bodies; there are exceptions; iron ore and large meteorite strikes. Once this geologic mechanism was understood it was a simple matter of using already known geology to map geological provinces that had a high prospectivity for petroleum or coal, culminating in the global peak of oil discoveries in the 1960’s. There is software available that maps gravitational anomalies with historic plate boundaries for use in the search of metallic ores. It is only the technological advances like pressure water injection and horizontal drilling that have allowed higher production from oil wells, but shorter life, and the tight (shale) oil production in the USA from fracturing rock layers that has maintained increases in global oil and gas production since 2000. The volume of new oil and gas discoveries is very low and production (energy) costs are rising rapidly. The Saudi oil minister has warned that global oil production could fall by 30% this decade. The cost of the production of coal is also rising as the largest and most economically profitable deposits are depleted. Global coal supply is also likely to fall short of demand within a decade or so. In addition the global quality of industrial metal ore grades is low and declining; increasing the energy costs to refine. Those metals are needed to electrify the energy system away from fossil fuels to low emissions technologies. For the above reasons it is imperative that alternative technologies be rolled out rapidly to replace the energy from fossil fuels within this decade or the cost of doing so will become prohibitive. Atmospheric carbon dioxide level has already been measured at 420 ppm and at that level the Earth’s equilibrium temperature (in a century or so) will be 5 degrees Celsius warmer. With continued current emission levels; 2 degrees warming by 2050 and 2 metre sea level rise by 2100 is almost guaranteed. The risk of a global recession/depression is real but also the risk of a grinding down of economic conditions (a slower continuous recession): The Great Energy Depression of the Twenty First Century.
The concept of the joule being the economic unit of measure is quite profound, especially in the digital realm as it elegantly defines Moores law in terms of cpu cycles. However where you fall off the cliff imho is when you roll out your crystal ball 100 years into the future... well .. Let's hope the ITER tokamak pans out by then to flood the skies with inexpensive oxygen released from the seas and unlimited electrons flowing through the air!
Lyn is a fountain of wisdom.
Lyn is freaking gold man. Easy thumbs up when she's on.
"a gold mine" ?
Her no answer on Fed chair position offer was pure emotion. Loved it. 27:02
This lady is nothing short of brilliant, and yet explains everything so even a dummy like me can follow with ease. So impressed with her and these podcasts. Thank you!
'The Macro Mind' aka Lynn Alden. Always impressive and always so modest. Peter is a fantastic interviewer and Liz is so well-researched! Love how these two interact.
I've never seen her stumped on something. It's amazing. Wealth of knowledge.
Peter you are killing it with your interviews! Thank you for all the great content! Please keep it up!!
Peter - it is awesome when you have Lyn Alden as a guest. She constantly helps me to ggrow and develop. Changes my mindset and makes me aware of the fact the more I learn, the more I need to learn. Thank you for having great guests. You're also a wonderful interviewer. Keep up your hard work. I appreciate it.
Lyn is brilliant! Great interview, tons of good insight.
Fantastic interview, really interesting. Thanks Lyn, and thanks for sharing.
I love when Lyn Alden task she brings a wave of knowledge
Lyn , thank you for your insight.
ty Lyn, I always learn something when you speak.
Lyn's the best! Thanks!
I said this to myself the other day: "whatever you may think about crypto...The crypto people are not only the hardest thinking people around, they're the only thinking people around". This channel is living proof.
Bitcoin.
You bring out the best in her, and thats a pretty damm big deal as lyn can tie so many things together in a few sentences in a way that is so incredibly logical relatable and comprehensible touching on and clarifying so many topics factors and inter relationships into clarity
Btw, Lyn the reasonably personal bit you shared about your parents is very helpful towards understanding your lens of a world view , so thanks for that.
Lyn thanks for the research. Great interview once again.
My favorite guest. 😍
Lyn humbles me every time.
if we are in a Simulation, Lynn is the Oracle
Very measured analysis. Excellent.
so good well done both of you
Thanks for the show ! I'm reading a book: The Dawn of Everything, A new history of Humanity. Talks about different societies throughout time and how inequality originates
Like Lyn's new Mic Setup.
Wow! This person blew my mind...
My two favorite people.
@lyn hearing a breakdown of a fed sales tax and removal of fed income taxs would be a good video
It is actually about stochastic:
B.M. Boghosian, M. Johnson, and J.A. Marcq, “An H theorem for Boltzmann’s equation
for the yard-sale model of asset exchange,” Journal of Statistical Physics 161 (2015) 1339-1350
Bruce M. Boghosian, Adrian Devitt-Lee, Merek Johnson, Jeremy A. Marcq, Hongyan Wang Oligarchy as a Phase Transition: The effect of wealth-attained advantage in a Fokker-Planck description of asset exchange. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 476, 2017, Pages 15-37, ISSN 0378-437
Jie Li, Bruce M. Boghosian, Chengli Li, The Affine Wealth Model: An agent-based model of asset exchange that allows for negative-wealth agents and its empirical validation, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 516, 2019, Pages 423-442, ISSN 0378-4371
Lyn is the best
Lynn: Is her brain a supercomputer?
LYN - OUTSTANDING!
Lyn is awesome
immediate click ... exciting
LYN ALDEN = GODTIER
Love Lyn
Regarding 'median male income: I don't understand why no one seems to see it. At one time, a married man whose wife stayed home could earn enough to save and buy a house and raise a family on his one income. So what changed? When women started working full time on a regular basis, and they got married, those 2-income couples could outbid single income couples for houses, so sellers raised prices. Of course housing prices are higher now - you have two incomes to support every purchase, and sellers aren't going to keep prices low to be nice. When you change inputs, you're going to change outputs - it's not difficult.
lyn with the miiiic
One of the big problems is housing regulations. Causes. A huge chunk of inequality.
Awesome thanks
I wonder what would happen if we stopped taxing labor?
25:58 Sounds great, but Governments don't shrink, Pete.
Don't worry. I'm here.
ty
I haven’t watched it so maybe I’m jumping the gun but for the title itself…
Isn’t it obvious? Human nature and competition?
Is there a single country where wealth inequality doesn’t exist?
Corporate structure is an issue and Federation is a process potentially an answer to cronyism. This is a new approach that tech can benefit localism.
there is the multiplier & hoarding effects in economics theory, but there is also a corruption or self interested actions multiplier that goes with control and authority. At least if we had a free market, the ones who work the hardest will get ahead, today we have a system where only the bffs of the ones with power can get ahead because they get free money...no one else can compete
p.s. Lyn rules
in australia, artificially low interest rates, people using housing as a proxy for saving instead of saving in a hard money
Spending SAT for decentralized Wealths.
I am here. Relax.
The dollar should become the like bitcoin in the US World Reserve cryptocurrency with a builtin micro transaction fee to treasury. This model builds a solid basis for price stability.
Income and wealth inequalities are a GOOD thing. More productive people with rare abilities SHOULD benefit financially from their abilities - they're the creators in our economy. It's called incentives, folks. When Elon becomes a dollar richer, I don't become a dollar poorer - Elon is not my landlord, and I don't live and work on his farm. Rich people becoming richer does not result from poor people becoming poorer - the poor don't have enough money to make others rich. In any case, while 'income inequality is increasing,' poor people are living like the royalty of the past. How many urban poor have no running water? How many have no bathtub at home? In my grandparent's lifetime, apartments in Boston USA without bathtubs were not uncommon. Inequality is not a problem - real levels of poverty are.
EXTRM GOOD TIME FOR BUYING ETHERUM AND BITCOIN AND HODL!!!!!!!!
Lyn aligns more with AOC than the host, lol
Peter is starting to see some of the cracks in his right-leaning beliefs; Lyn's ever-astute analysis of econ will slowly nudge him towards a slightly more progressive mindset.
Ehhh listen to that part again. Lynn doesn’t think taxing only the rich more is a solution but taxing everyone fairly - more like a flat tax that doesn’t let some slip through the cracks without paying taxes at all using loop holes - which is a belief held by many leaning conservative.
Surely a fundamental issue is that less than 40% of the adult population in both the U.S + U.K actually pay direct taxes.
The libertarian argument that without government we wouldn't have monopolies is just wrong... COUNTRIES are those monopolies...
Yo, FIRST!!!!
Oops the rich got most of the benefit, oops the rich got richer.. I think I see a trend.
when I listen to you it sounds like it would easier to quit smoking than giving up amazon. JUST STOP or stop talking about it.
I hate these zoom interviews🙄🙄🙄
What's there not to like? Free education. Amazing.
It allows us to have more interviews, otherwise they would have to fly to meet each other and that’s a huge ordeal. This way we get more content. It’s so much more efficient it’s insane. But in person interviews are better
I am pleased that Lyn has finally exposed the myth of Modern Monetary Theory in that it is totally dependent on a low cost supply of resources and particularly energy. The world is already has declining resources and particularly energy.
In February of 2001 I wrote:
The level of debt in western countries and around the world is high. Escalating oil and energy prices will cause economic downturns and recessions as is current in 2001. As both debt and the price of oil and energy increase through this decade it will cause an economic recession. I believe some time 2011-2015 but very possibly much sooner.
An oil price shock and a following oil supply crunch are coming. Some modellers say as early as 2003, some say not till after 2020. CAMWEST - Why Are We Still Building Roads?
In October 2005 I wrote:
From research and modelling I estimate that oil will reach US$150/barrel in 2008 and at that price will cause a recession. CAMWEST - Peak Oil: Where are fuel prices going?
It is now history that the September 11 2001 terrorist attack and subsequent invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq exacerbated both global debt and global oil consumption. And that the combination of debt and an oil price of US$147/barrel caused the GFC.
The global situation has not improved from that time. Advances in petroleum extraction technology has allowed increased production but at the expense of shorter life of oil wells. The supply crunch for oil and gas is fast approaching with coal to closely follow.
Economics is the study of the use of partially implemented, untested economic theories to transfer the wealth from the people into the hands of a few through the depletion of the planets limited resources to fill perceived needs and wants.
Science measures with absolute units to test theories and hypothesises to analysis data, show trends and relationships and make meaningful projections. Unfortunately economics does not have any absolute units with which to measure; analogous to measuring length with an elastic tape measure. Consequently no meaningful measurement, analysis or projections can be conducted.
The unit of measure that economics should be using is the Joule. Nothing happens in any system; natural and especially human created without the expenditure of energy. The energy human society is using is rapidly increasing in energy cost to produce and deliver. Supply will meet the demand that has the ability to pay. But energy has a tight limit on its value. Due to the infrastructure and machinery needed to put energy to work the cost of energy can only ever be a small fraction of the value of the work that it will do. Once the cost of the energy nears 10% of the value of the work it will do it becomes uneconomic.
In fact it could be said that monetary systems are a representation of energy expended and borrowed money is expending energy from the future.
Currently global net debt is estimated at 400% of global GDP. Where is the energy going to come from to do the work to repay that debt? In short, it is not available.
Currently 84% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels and only 16% of global energy is supplied by the total of all other low emissions technologies combined. Nearly 60% of global energy is supplied by petroleum; from methane (natural gas) natural gas liquids, and oil to bitumen. Petroleum (oil and natural gas) is approaching a supply crunch within this decade as demand continues to increase and production faces rapidly increasing challenges. Petroleum supplies; the feedstock and energy for petrochemicals/plastics, agricultural production and transport with limited alternatives.
During World War 2 magnetic anomalies were recorded in the Atlantic Ocean and in other oceans. After the war the US Geologic Survey and the Shell oil company conducted research projects. The result was the tabling of a scientific paper in 1956 at an obscure scientific symposium in Hobart Tasmania. The publication provided evidence for the future Theory of Plate Tectonics, commonly known as continental drift, and evidence for the geological processes that form all fossil fuels. Marion King Hubbert was the head of Shell research at that time. Hubbert accurately predicted the peak of US oil production for 1970 and global peak of oil production for about 2000.
Plate Tectonics is the geological mechanism for the formation of all fossil fuel deposits and many ore bodies; there are exceptions; iron ore and large meteorite strikes. Once this geologic mechanism was understood it was a simple matter of using already known geology to map geological provinces that had a high prospectivity for petroleum or coal, culminating in the global peak of oil discoveries in the 1960’s. There is software available that maps gravitational anomalies with historic plate boundaries for use in the search of metallic ores. It is only the technological advances like pressure water injection and horizontal drilling that have allowed higher production from oil wells, but shorter life, and the tight (shale) oil production in the USA from fracturing rock layers that has maintained increases in global oil and gas production since 2000. The volume of new oil and gas discoveries is very low and production (energy) costs are rising rapidly. The Saudi oil minister has warned that global oil production could fall by 30% this decade. The cost of the production of coal is also rising as the largest and most economically profitable deposits are depleted. Global coal supply is also likely to fall short of demand within a decade or so.
In addition the global quality of industrial metal ore grades is low and declining; increasing the energy costs to refine. Those metals are needed to electrify the energy system away from fossil fuels to low emissions technologies.
For the above reasons it is imperative that alternative technologies be rolled out rapidly to replace the energy from fossil fuels within this decade or the cost of doing so will become prohibitive. Atmospheric carbon dioxide level has already been measured at 420 ppm and at that level the Earth’s equilibrium temperature (in a century or so) will be 5 degrees Celsius warmer. With continued current emission levels; 2 degrees warming by 2050 and 2 metre sea level rise by 2100 is almost guaranteed.
The risk of a global recession/depression is real but also the risk of a grinding down of economic conditions (a slower continuous recession): The Great Energy Depression of the Twenty First Century.
The concept of the joule being the economic unit of measure is quite profound, especially in the digital realm as it elegantly defines Moores law in terms of cpu cycles.
However where you fall off the cliff imho is when you roll out your crystal ball 100 years into the future... well ..
Let's hope the ITER tokamak pans out by then to flood the skies with inexpensive oxygen released from the seas and unlimited electrons flowing through the air!